2:13pm: Webb won't be signing cheaply. In an email to MLBTR, his agent Jonathan Maurer said:
"Webb loves Arizona and they will be considered highly, but Brandon WILL be looking at an incentive-based contract [with] a guaranteed base where [Brad] Penny and [Rich] Harden at $7.5MM, [Ben] Sheets at $10MM and [Tim] Hudson's $9.33MM average annual value are all conversation starters. Webb, when healthy, is one of the top pitchers in the game. Arizona is a great place to play, ([though] it has always been a hitter's park, Webb has dominated there) but I anticipate significant interest in what is a very healthy Brandon Webb, with his signature life back on all his pitches."
8:37am: When Josh Byrnes exercised Brandon Webb's 2010 club option in January, the expectation was that the pitcher would be ready for Spring Training following August shoulder surgery. Webb declined the team's overtures regarding a 2011 option, and I even opined that a return to form in 2010 could lead to an $80MM deal.
What a difference eight months makes. Byrnes was canned, replaced by Jerry Dipoto on an interim basis. Veterans Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Chris Snyder, and Chad Qualls were shipped out, saving the team many millions. And setbacks in Webb's recovery have him looking at a potential September debut in a relief role. Webb explained to the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro:
"The next few weeks are huge for next year. For one, I want to prove it to myself. And, two, I want to prove not only to the Diamondbacks but all the other teams out there that might be interested in me playing for them next year."
Despite the changes with the team, Webb's stance toward returning to the Diamondbacks next year remains the same. He hopes to return, but he understands he might end up leaving. Webb knows he's looking at an incentive-based deal, and says it'll be in the team's hands after the season. He had positive words for the revamped Arizona pitching staff, which is now built around Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, Dan Hudson, and Barry Enright.
Webb made similar comments about returning to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in January, but at that time he focused a bit more on doing the best for his family and playing near his Kentucky home. At the time, I noted that Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are fits geographically.
Come to Cinci!
he is going to leave the diamond backs
Lucky for him the FA market for starting pitchers appears to be pretty weak. He will be a gamble for someone. I could see the Brewers as a good fit.
a la Ben Sheets. I could see a smaller market team picking him up. The Reds I think would be his #2 choice. I think he’s going there.
yeah that’s what I thought at first too. I can’t see any team giving Webb 9 mil garaunteed, although ya never know. I’m guessing Beane won’t be for sure though!
I’d love to see the Mets sign him to an incentive laden deal. If he returns to form, our rotation would be incredible.
Two pitchers doesn’t make a rotation incredible.
The Mets have four starters with 130 IP or more and an ERA of 3.70 or lower, all of which are under team control for next year. They have gotten championship caliber pitching from the rotation this season. It’s the offense that has completely let the team down. Try again.
It’s amazing that their “championship caliber” starting pitching staff has the 4th best FIP in the NL East. Obviously a healthy Webb puts them in the discussion for top 5 starting staff in the NL, but that’s a big if and at the moment their rotation is nothing more than average.
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Wrong. Their rotation has been especially good lately, possibly the best it has been all year. They are being let down by the offense.
22 games isn’t exactly a conclusive sample size though.
Niese, Dickey, and Santana are all having good years. Out of those only Santana has a proven history of being a consistent above average starter.
If they can continue to put up those numbers, maybe I’d agree with you. But it’s hard to imagine them continuing to put up a K/BB ratio nearly twice what their season averages are.
Also the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies all had lower FIPs in August.
fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=nl&s…
I think the Pirates need to give him a serious look. He doesn’t have an injury history like Sheets and Bedard, and if he is able to fully recover from his injury now, he could return to form as an ace. I could see him staying in the NL, so Pittsburgh needs to make him a good offer because I’m sure the Reds will if they let Arroyo and Harang go. St Louis could also be in the mix.
Pittsburgh would be career suicide.
Just because the rest of the team is bad doesn’t mean that it would affect him and his perfomance, leading to ‘career suicide’ If He was a position player who will see less fastballs and be walked 30 times more because he was put in the middle of a bad lineup, then yes .
Pitchers take the mound and do their thing, regardless of what jersey they’re wearing. Your only justification could be park factor but PNC is middle of the pack so shouldn’t screw or aid him either way.
What player are you referring to? Because I was talking about Webb and you mentioned about a position player? Regardless isn’t not career suicide to play in Pittsburgh. Sure, they aren’t very good right now but they got a young group of hitters who should improve and players coming off injuries and missing nearly two seasons shouldn’t be very picky when it comes to signing with a team that would give them a shot.
yeah not quite sure who you’re referring to…Pittsburgh may not be complete suicide but the team won’t make him look any better. Sure his stats will be up to him but i meant more on the lines that Pittsburgh isn’t close to being a contender and if he signs there the best he could hope for is being the aging veteran on a solid young team. Though conversely if Webb doesn’t come back to his form immediately (or ever) I guess Pittsburgh could be a good place to regain his standings in the MLB. Also an injured pitcher going to a bad team can’t be good for his self-esteem. If he struggles on a better team at least they could get him the win, while if he struggles on a bad team he kind of completely loses the game and that’s not good for a struggling pitcher.
I’m pretty sure moonraker was trying to say IF Webb was a position player, your argument for career suicide might get some credence. But because Webb is a SP, it wouldn’t be that bad because he can go to the mound once every 5 games and do his thing, regardless of the team he is on.
You left out Barry Enright in your “the rotation is built around” section. There’s no way the Dbacks are getting rid of him. He’s a Brandon Webb-type player: quiet yet deadly.
Good call, just added him.
I see the Nationals being a good fit for Webb. They could use another veteran and if he comes back to form he goes atop that rotation, if not then they stick with their current options. Especially now with Strasburg down for next year Webb makes sense in Washington. Their current G.M. Mike Rizzo is the one who found him so obviously he is a fan of their front office.
Webb should go to Cincinnati. They’re rotation would be great with Cueto, Volquez, Webb, Mike Leake, and maybe Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman
I think he’s he going to have an impressive offseason to get that sort of a guarantee.
AIN’T HAPPENING, BRANDON!
Detroit is within geographical striking distance of Ashland, Kentucky as well. The Tigers have money to spend, a GM that gets gun shy about going after the big free agents that require multi year contracts, and definitely in the market for another top starting pitcher.
Lee, Lilly, Arroyo, Pettite, Kuroda, Webb, DeLaRosa, and maybe Vazquez or Padilla are the free agent starting pitchers that could take Bonderman’s spot, apart from any trades.
De Larosa and a decent Brandon Webb, with a few additions in the batting order (Adum Dunn?) could make them a serious threat next year. As you said, plenty of money to spend and these guys aren’t out of the question. Though there will be competition. The Red Sox are always looking for low risk, high reward type pitchers and they will most likely be in on Crawford and Dunn. They have plenty of money to spend themselves. But all around baseball this should be an interesting offseason. I think we’re going to see more trades than usual with some good teams becoming great and some of the worse teams adding some depth and becoming much better.
Hudson and Sheets were coming off elbow issues, not shoulder surgery. Harden hasn’t been impressive in only 85 IP on the year and Penny is injured – again.
Not convinced Brandon Webb coming off significant shoulder surgery is going to be a high quality pitcher anymore.
Surgery wasn’t significant.. A debridement.. He had the surgery just one year ago.. The reports sound positive from the people that have seen him throw. Should be a great offseason as always, but let’s enjoy September and October first!
Wow, his agent should take some lessons from Boras. You shouldn’t throw out a bunch of names that teams wish they wouldn’t have signed. The only name there that has lived up to the contract is probably Hudson. That wasn’t a very convincing statement. I know that’s what Webb and his agent probably want, but that e-mail looked more like a warning than an effort to try and get more money.
Stl.. Not a good comparison to Boras.. I saw a Fox Az special on his agents, and they are really good guys. My guess is the comparison is based on guys recently signed Pitchers that had been out. I don’t think any of those comparables finished in the top 2 in Cy Young 3 years in a row.. Webb has been great for AZ and I hope he stays. There just are not too many legit # 1 starters available.
Boras always compares what his players “should” get to other players in the same situation or with close to the same numbers. To me if this is what I was going to do as an agent, I would try and find some players that lived up to the garaunteed money they got. This list wasn’t too impressive and I don’t think he will get 8-10mil garaunteed. If he does, good luck to that team.
As a diamondback fan, I almost hope they refuse to let him start, we’re out of contention so it doesn’t really matter anyways. The reason he’s had so many “setbacks” is because he’s not mentally ready to “let it all go” on the mound. That seems like a load of garbage to me and an excuse to not pitch on a bad team. Also there is some foundation for him to pitch in Pittsburgh because he and Chris Snyder were very close and that’s where Snyder was traded to.
The Reds would be a good fit, they have his old pitching coach, a need for a front end pitcher, some cash coming off the books, though a significant portion of it will go to raises, and they have one of the best IF defenses in the league when they play Janish instead of Cabrera.
However throwing out three names that have become horrible contracts, Webb hasn’t pitched for two years and has been saying next month its go time for pretty much the entire time. Unless he pitches in September and is vintage Webb and can do some winter ball to show he’s healthy and ready to go he isn’t likely to get that kind of money. I see something more like a 2-3 million deal with another 6-7 in incentives.
The only way he gets the big money upfront I’m thinking is if he gives the team a cheap option year or two on top of it.
Its not like he’s thrown 150-200 innings the last two years, he’s thrown what 5.
Does anyone else find this completely ridiculous? Brandon Webb hasn’t pitched in two years and he wants a “significant” base salary. Coming off shoulder surgery??!!!
LOL
No thanks Brandon.
Note to Webb’s agent. Don’t use examples that can blow up in your face!!!
Penny: Great April (5 starts, 1.56 ERA). Horrible May (4 starts, 6.00 ERA). Hasn’t pitched since May 21st.
Harden: 5-5 w/ a 5.17 ERA and he missed most of June, July and August.
Sheets: Had an up and down season trying to re-establish himself but was probably the most succesful of the three mentioned. 4-9, 4.53 ERA. Hasn’t thrown a pitch since July 19th and is about to have surgery again and might miss all of 2011.
Hudson: The only positive example that he used but in his case the Braves were able to see him pitch 7 games last year and the team has an emotional attachment to him as well. Webb hasn’t pitched since 2008 except for 4 IP early in 2009!!!
So looking at those three of the four examples YOU (Webb’s agent) offered and ask yourself if you really think it would be wise, or even suggested, that owners repeat the mistakes made by the other 3 GMs and give Webb a guarantee base of $7.5 mil.
In fact of all the FA pitchers that were coming off of injuries in 2009 who has really performed well or at all in 2010?
Erik Bedard SEA (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Bartolo Colon CWS (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Justin Duchscherer OAK (out since April)
Kelvim Escobar LAA (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Mike Hampton HOU (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Rich Harden CHC (bad signing-see above)
Tim Hudson ATL (good signing)
Brett Myers PHI (Good Pick Up)
Brad Penny SF (bad signing-see above)
Chen-Mein-Wang (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Jason Schmidt LAD (hasn’t pitched in 2010)
Todd Wellemeyer STL (11 starts, 5.68 ERA, missed several months in 2010)
Hey Yanks.. My guess.. That agent knows some things you don’t as far as what the market bears or talking to people. Unless you are an agent, your opinion is fine, but maybe just that, a fan since 1978. With that said.. 7-10 mil guaranteed may be too high.. But the number of teams that will want to see Webb throw in the winter will push the market to at least 7 plus incentives for starts or whatever teams do..
No I’m not an agent but I would be highly surprised if another team agrees to pay a base of $7 mil for a pitcher who hasn’t pitched more than 4 inning in the last 2 years. Simply put, there are more bad examples than there are good. Sarcasm aside, I don’t think most of us on here are anything more than fans. I never offered my opinion as anything factual but I did use facts over sentiment to form my opinion.
Fair enough and well said.. I’m just saying I have more faith in the agent community to expect Webb’s agent knows something us fans don’t know. No need beating a dead horse.. I, as I am sure you and most fans, are rooting for any injured player to make it back strong. I bet Webb, after he shakes some rust, will be great for AZ or whomever he signs for! I still think he gets 7 guaranteed. All the best.. Back to work at the factory..
Yes, I definetly root for any injured player to make a comeback. I’m sure the market will set itself and Webb will sign w/ someone. Shoot…the Yanks can use a good pitcher as well. Guys like Ben Sheets almost drive you crazy because you can only imagine what they could do if he can stay healthy. I feel for them all and wish them the best. As a kid I remember when old man Tommy John came back from his um…..”Tommy John” surgery. He couldn’t throw harder than 88 mph but God bless him he had tremendous heart and big set of brass ones the way he challenged hitters despite not bringing any heat to the plate.
Re-sign if 100% healthy w/ reasonable deal…
Webb
Enright
Hudson
Saunders
Kennedy
-Possibly Jarrod Parker
This is precisely the reason I hate Billy Beane for giving a rehab project like Sheets a $10MM contract. Because rehab punks like Webb will throw it in the faces of all GM’s at contract-time. No rehabber is ever worth 8 figures. $5MM, maybe. $7.5MM in exceptional cases. In my book, Webb should get nothing more than $5MM plus incentives until he PROVES he can pitch a whole season strongly and consistently.