Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere. After months of anticipation, the Twins reached an agreement with Mauer on an eight-year, $184MM extension today. The contract will keep the soon-to-be 27-year-old in Minnesota from 2011 to 2018.
The agreement was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) and the Twins disclosed the contract's terms, including its full no-trade clause, via press release. Rosenthal (via Twitter) and ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggested earlier in the day that the sides were nearing a deal.
The deal, which covers Mauer's first eight free agent seasons, averages out to $23MM per year. That's the fourth largest deal in MLB history, topped only by Alex Rodriguez's $275MM contract with the Yankees, Rodriguez's $252MM contract with Texas, and Derek Jeter's $189MM deal.
The Minnesota native outdid himself in 2009, posting .365/.444/.587 with 28 homers in 606 plate appearances en route to his third batting title in four seasons and the AL MVP Award. The Twins and Mauer will make it all official at a press conference tomorrow evening.
It's the news many Twins fans have been waiting for all offseason, but it comes on the same day that Joe Nathan decided to undergo Tommy John surgery. The closer will miss the season, but Twins fans have one less player to worry about, now that the Yankees and Red Sox are not going to have the chance to bid on their star catcher.
This would be great for baseball all around.
Absolutley. Joe Mauer staying with the Twins is as good as Cal Ripken Jr. Staying with the Orioles or Tony Gwynn staying with the Padres.
9/200
Nope. Another disagreement. 8/170.
less than teixeria? i doubt it.
Remember that home town discount.
a hometown discount would still be more than what tex got.
Well whatever it is it will be around that.
give the guy ten years with some defered money so that way if he decides to retire after the ten years he still gets paid and that does not suck up too much current pay roll for the team….but i agree this is good for baseball, i would have loved for him to go to the yankees or some where in the NL so the twins can stop being the “favorite” in the central but still good for the guy, team, state, and baseball
I’m a hard to the core Yankees fan, but I’m glad that Mauer is staying put with the Twinkies. Now we can focus on signing Carl Crawford and maybe Cliff Lee next off season. I’d much rather them than Joe. I skipped on buying MLB 10 this year cause I figured the Yankees lineup will be that much more awesome next year along with the rotation.
wow of that comment alone i now know your a d bag
You might be on to something.
Mauer is worth 2 or 3 times he is being paid in revenue for the Twins. His popularity not only fills the stands but has risen the Twins profile nationally to where they are a team people around the country want to see play. This is going translate into more nationally televised games etc. Mauer is the golden goose the Twins have been waiting for, someone who can raise them from a kind of quirky small market team people admire because they are well run and always seem to complete no matter how small their payroll, to one with real national stature.
Can you prove that? And even if you could, there’s risk that he won’t be able to maintain the level of playing productivity for all eight years. Players will never be entitled to reap all supposed revenue that they generate. It is a team product and the team takes a huge risk in investing in a player’s future performance. Think Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, Albert Bell, Vernon Wells, etc.
While Mauer is definitely not worth 2 or 3 times 184M, he’s definitely a solid value at that price point still. The comparisons made here are not very good ones. Brown and Zito are pitchers, who have much more volatility. And Zito’s contract would be fine, if he was actually the starter SF thought he was (which to anyone with a knowledge of peripheral stats, he clearly wasn’t, but that’s them being dumb).
Bell and Wells are also not very good comparisons either. Even if Wells repeated his best season every year, he would have had trouble earning his salary. And Bell was a totally different kind of player, with skills that I think age less gracefully. Mauer is a solid defensive catcher that hits for AVG, OBP, and power. The guy is almost bound to have some value unless he gets really injured, either offensively or defensively or both.
I’m not sure if Mauer’s contract will work out over the course of seasons, but he provides so much skill at one position where hitting is so scarce that he could push them an extra level up in the playoffs on a season or two. And I think that would make up the difference for his later years when he loses value by moving to another position or loses some pop.
Mauer will never hit over 20 HR’s in his career ever again. Metrodome helped him.
I’m late to the party, but how did it help him? He only hit four more HR’s in the Dome than away last year. His career HR’s are evenly split, 36 home and 36 away. The new ballpark’s dimensions are nearly the same and in some points a little closer. I think he’s hit about 40% of his career HR’s to the opposite field (LF). Most guys who hit HR’s seem to be heavy pull hitters. Not Mauer, which makes it even harder for him to do so. LF is going to be four feet shorter in the new ballpark. Some of Mauer’s shots barely made it over the LF wall. Plus, he also took a lot of balls to the LF warning track. With the new ballpark dimensions, he would have hit over 30 last year easily. Half of his HR’s last year went over 400 feet, two others were close to it. I wouldn’t call that mostly luck or help from the stadium he played in.
In Mauer’s career overall, he generally hits better outside of the Dome. In most cases it’s only slightly better, but still better. I can see him hitting low 20’s again. I don’t see him getting 28 again, but that would be freaking awesome.
I’m not sure how you can claim that Mauer is “fill(ing) the stands”. Attendance by year:
2001 – 1.78m
2002 – 1.90m
2003 – 1.95m
2004 – 1.91m (Mauer rookie season)
2005 – 2.03m
2006 – 2.28m
2007 – 2.29m
2008 – 2.30m
2009 – 2.41m
So, since 2004 the Twins have increased attendance by 500k. That’s a solid but unspectacular growth rate (similar to the overall growth rate of MLB). Having a guy like Mauer doesn’t hurt attendance but this notion that he alone is responsible for generating $60m+ in revenue for the Twins seems a little far fetched.
I’m happy for the Twins and happy for Mauer. Enjoy the day. That said, if I’m a betting man I’d put money that in retrospect this will not be a great deal. Mauer plays the most demanding position in baseball. Even in his youth, he hasn’t managed to avoid the injury bug (has never reached 550 PA’s). Assuming that 2009 was an aberration – moving him off catcher to DH or 1B cuts deeply into his value where he is basically a career 850 OPS type hitter.
You’re saying a 26% increase in attendance is unspectacular? Not saying it is all due to Mauer…putting a winner on the field is a big deal of course…and lets not forget the other future hall of famer on the team – Justin Morneau. But my hunch is the Twins have not reached anywhere near t he revenue potential they can eventually get to. And Joe Mauer is the lynchpin of those plans!
Joe Mauer is a once in a generation player, and with him being a hometown hero staying with his hometown team it gets even better from here.
Justin Morneau is a pretty good player. All Star caliber ? Yes. HOF worthy ? No, just just no.
If Morneau maintains the average of his RBI. HR, and hit totals for 10 more years he would have a 450 hr, 2400 hit, 1700 rbi career…more than enough for the Hall. He plays longer than that he hits 500 homers…
“If Morneau maintains the average of his RBI, HR, and hit totals for 10 more years”
lol
Not to mention a .280 to .300 lifetime BA
He’s more than pretty good. He is an all-star & MVP player.
Morneau is no hall of famer
He maintains the level of production he has achieved since 2005 he most certainly will be…
How can you tell? His career isn’t even half over. Why don’t you wait until he retires to judge him.
I don’t get the injury thing. I mean, I get it, but I remember reading not too long ago (last year or the year before) that even with injuries, Mauer was in the top five (minimum) for games played by a catcher since he made it to the bigs. Now, I’m not entirely positive if that includes the 2004 season though so maybe not since he made it, but close. So either 2004 to present or 2005 to present, he’s top five in games for a catcher, or was.
How would that be possible if he’s always out of the lineup/injured (not reaching 550 PA’s)? Unless I’m completely missing something (entirely possible), Mauer has reached over 600 PA’s for the last two years. He also did it in 2006, and was over 550 in 2005. Since 2005, about 25 catchers total have reached over 550 PA’s. Many are repeats, including Mauer four times. All the other catchers in the league must be out a lot too, injuries or not. Most guys get injured, especially playing the most demanding position. But Mauer appears to be quite high up there in terms of playing time even with the injuries.
I think a lot of fans, even Twins fans, take Mauer for granted. I know before last year, a lot of people said Mauer was overrated because he didn’t hit for power. The way I look at it is that we have a catcher who offensively is performing way above what most catchers do. Catchers aren’t supposed to hit like Mauer does, it’s not common at all. Some guys are more offensively gifted, but not a lot of guys are Mauer’s level at catcher. And fans wanted more. No matter what Mauer did, it was never good enough. Combine Mauer’s offense, defense and game calling and you have a very, very special player. A special catcher, maybe a once in a lifetime type of player.
It’s really still too early to tell, but I just don’t think fans in general understand what Mauer has done since he came up. And I’m not a fan with Twins/Mauer goggles on, I’m just being honest. What we’re watching here with Pujols and Mauer, it’s something special. Most people believe it’s not enough, they demand more and that’s just nuts.
“The Minnesota native outdid himself in 2009, posting .365/.444/.587 with 28 homers in 606 plate appearances.”
I wonder if an agreement with Joe Mauer will lead to a Wilson Ramos-Heath Bell trade.
take it for what you want, but i was watching sportscenter earlier today and they had buster olney on who “spoke with a high ranking twins official” who said they are gonna go inhouse atleast till midseason and if they need to make a trade then, then they will.
Well whenever the Twins realize that they need a closer, Heath Bell no doubt about it.
I spoke to Frank Viola today at this convention in NY and he thinks that the Twins will make a trade soon. I heard it from the horses mouth didn’t I?
Buster has some work to do before I listen his word over the local guys. And right now they’re tending to sound more like a move outside the organization is coming. I think the bullpen is set up just how they want it, and shuffling everyone over a spot, even if things went as well as could be hoped, would entail getting everyone into new roles. That bullpen has been a real source of strength during this run of success and I imagine they’d want to keep it steady as much as possible. That’s kind of their M.O. in most respects.
I was thinking the same thing. Securing Mauer for the next decade gives them the flexibility to use Ramos to fill other needs. Closer would seem to be one of those needs. It seems to me the Padres and Twins match up pretty well on a deal.
I think they like Ramos too much for that and would rather trade a good OF that’s going to get scrunched in three years than a catcher who only might get scrunched in three years. Angel Morales or Ben Revere sound far more likely than Ramos to me.
my question is this with mauer potentially being locked up for a number of years and i would assume they would extende morneau as well when his deal runs out where do they both play? Mauer will be the first basemen for the twins in coming years to keep him healthy and his bat strong ….kubal isnt that good of an out fielder but his bat is awesome so you dont take him out of the DH stop that leave justin without a place to play POTENTIALLY…a 35+hr left handed solid feilding 1st basemen unless they can move someone else on the team or get kubal to play OF full time
morneau signed a 6year extension last year. he’s already locked up. and he’s a firstbaseman who i think is about 27(or28), i think he can stick to 1b until he is around 35 or 36, conveniently, when his deal runs out.
When he is 35 or 36 they could still re-sign him.
The great thing about the potential Mauer extension is that the Twins are really leaving the name “small market team”. They are really starting to enter the Red Sox and Yankees stages in terms of payroll.
“They are really starting to enter the Red Sox and Yankees stages in terms of payroll.”
What? The Twins have around $95 million commited in 2010. The Red Sox and Yankees on the other end have $165 & 212 million on the books for 2010. 2010 isn’t even comparable and the numbers over the next few years won’t be that close either. The Red Sox and the Yankees are in a payroll league of their own and even a new stadium won’t get them around those figures.
The Red Sox have 122.
Umm yea in 2009. Signing John Lackey, Adrian Beltre & Mike Cameron along with arb raises etc have lifted that number by around $40 million.
spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html
No it is now 122.
Your wrong, unglue yourself from this website for 30 seconds and open the link. It’s from Cot’s Contracts and I have my doubts that they’re off by around $40 million because some kid that feels he needs to comment on every other post says so.
“because some kid that feels he needs to comment on every other post says so.”
First of all, I’m pretty sure the comment section is for commenting. Right? Second of all, I don’t think it’s your place to put people down. So if you disagree and feel the need to belittle people, keep it to yourself buddy. Thanks.
I didn’t mean to come across as an ass I just don’t see the need for an argument when the info is provided and the facts are right there for you to see.
I understand man. It’s cool. I just think that for what it’s worth, putting the Sox and Yanks aside, we are looking at a team that is increasing payroll drastically. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that Twins-Red Sox payroll differential trimmer as the season progresses. Plus, we can’t expect Papi and Lowell to be back in ’11. We can however expect the Twins payroll to increase 25MM dollars or so by then. I’m just saying.
So I was led to the wrong information at first. Okay. I don’t want to criticize or get criticized here so you know, it’s cool man.
come on Span, don’t thank him at the end of paragraph…
it’s alright man.
actually, he’s right. remember towards the “midway” point of the offseason, they red sox were debating whether to bring in another bat or bring back bay but were afraid salary would exceed the luxury tax which is 170mil.
But ESPN just made their thing.
Plus, no need to be rude on this site Danks50.
Isn’t the comment section for commenting?
Then ESPN clearly is bad at math. The Red Sox didn’t take that much off the books and they added significantly to the books. While I still resent the whole “Red Sox and Yankees are in a league of their own” comments, they have a high payroll this year. With that said, the Yankees are totally in a league of their own and it’s just silly to lump the Red Sox in with that. The Yankees are on average a 40-50 million step up over the Red Sox in payroll. It’s not even close. The Red Sox are a small step up from the kind of payroll bracket the Cubs and Mets live in. They just happen to have been better at it, and for some reason now they are magically in a higher payroll level in people’s minds because they won a couple world series.
Nobody really spends as much as those two, but the Twins aren’t a tiny-market team like the Pirates or Marlins anymore.
Why is it that they are no longer a tiny-market team? Don’t they still play in Minneapolis? Shouldn’t we say, they aren’t a tiny-spending team like the Pirates and Marlins anymore?
Not trying to put anyone down, just wondering why when a baseball team gets a new stadium they are no longer small market even though they are playing across the street or across town. It’s the same market, they just are no longer small spending. Am I mistaken?
I don’t think the Twins were ever small market literally. I think they have always been a mid-market team but spent like a small market team. Carl Pohlad took a lot of the money and pocketed it. Plus, the Dome was bad for revenue. Most of the concessions and suites went to the Vikings (NFL) even if they were bought/used for a Twins game.
More like entering the Astros payroll neighborhood… At an point in time BOS can throw another 50m in the oven and so can the Yanks.
Mauer only catches 100-110 games as it is. It’s not like “in the coming years” he needs to move to 1B. He DH’s every now and then and will continue to do so this season.
And that is why this contract will be bad.
No it isn’t.
I think it’s certainly possible Mauer doesn’t finish the contract as a catcher. He certainly has the most value there and I’m sure the Twins would like to keep him there long term, but I can see an argument for keeping him healthy by moving him to a less physically demanding position. However, he’s a very athletic guy. I don’t think he’d be restricted to 1b if he needed to switch positions.
good news for the Twins in this tough time
This signing will soften the blow of losing the very popular Joe Nathan.
Great news for the baseball world if they can get it done. Mauer belongs in Minnesota.
They probably have to do this but it will handcuff them.
it will? how please elaborate.
Ferrariman you were right about the Tex money being less but I was closer!
Great news…the wealthiest owners in baseball (according to Forbes) are actually willing to spend some $$$ on their premium players….
I loved the idea of seeing him as a Yankee one day, but for the greater good this is the best thing that can happen for baseball.
8 years $184 million
OFFICIAL from MLB.com’s Kelly Thesier Twins Mauer agree to 8 year $187MM deal!
184.
Yes! This is great news for the game of Baseball!!
It also includes a no-trade clause so thats good as well.
Ron Shapiro is the best agent there is!
Joe Mauer is staying with the Twins! Yes!
By what measure is Shapiro is the best agent there is?
Because Kirby Puckett, Cal Ripken Jr., and Possibly Joe Mauer will all remain with their team for life.
If we kept stats for commenters on this forum, you might lead the league in non sequiturs per thread (NSP).
What does NSP mean?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequitur
Oh and Boras is still the best agent.
Is it me, or does this show major confidence in the revenue generating ability of Target Field? This is about a quarter of their budget on one player. They’re gonna have to keep surrounding Mauer with talent to win consistently. That might make the payroll rise even higher than the expected 100 MM, right?
The Twins are certainly in a great state right now. They lost a player today but kept one for certain for 8 years. If you are a Baseball fan such as myself you have to love a deal like this.
I absolutely do. I’m just so interested because this changes the economic landscape of the league significantly. Above all, congrats Minnesota.
Yeah you bet. They really are just moving forward. Everything in the Twins future looks really bright now (except the Joe Nathan situation).
They got this out of the way and now they can trade Wilson Ramos for Heath Bell.
This also puts the Twins in an elite level with the Red Sox and Yankees for example in terms of spending this much on a franchise player (which is certainly not a bad thing). They have just done a spectacular job this past off-season and now they are in a great situation for not only the future but for this season as well. Denard got locked up, Blackburn, and Joe Mauer. If you are a Twins fan you have to be dancing in the streets right now!
Just because he signed an 8 year deal, doesn’t mean they pay it all at once. He was going to make the same amount of money this year contract or not. So, no…the payroll does not increase this year.
I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. I was speaking to the long-term ramifications, and the fact that the Twins have been continually raising their payroll over the past few years. A lot of the differential will have to be made up if they want to be challengers and not just Joe Mauer and 24 other guys.
They’ll have about 30 million coming off the books after this year. They’ll have to fill the few holes that pop up, the biggest being 2B and SP. Beyond that, I’m not sure.
Paradoxically, I think the problems in the overall economy were a positive factor in getting this deal done.
No doubt about it.
Ken Rosenthal reported the deal though I think.
Awesome, good for the Twins and Mauer!
suck on that yankee bandwagon fans! no disrespect to legit yankee fans.
I’m a Yankees fan, and I can’t even stand the stupidity bandwagon fans spew out of their mouths. They make every other Yankee fan look bad.
I’m a Sox fan. Thank you for confirming your species existence, I’ve heard rumors of intelligent Yankees fans for years.
An average of $23MM per, that’s a lot of money for the “small market” Twins. Can’t wait to see the contact details.
It’s $23MM anually from 2011-2018. So he is guaranteed 9 more years on the Twins starting now. AMAZING!
This is great news for Baseball!
Minneapolis/St.Paul is actually mid-market (approx the same size as the Seattle market), not small market. But it is a lot for any organization to commit.
Who is happy!!!!??? THIS GUY!!!!!
It’s a great deal for everyone involved. Twins keep their golden boy and Mauer gets to rightly become the highest paid player in Twins history
Is it safe to say that this is a historical moment? Excellent deal!
Very good news. He should never leave Minnesota. Most importantly, we’ll be spared the Yankee/Red Sox trade/signing rumors.
It might just be me, but eight years is a lot for a catcher… i dont care how good or how young by the 6th year of this contract everybody in Minnasota will be complaining and saying the same thing i am…why did you give 8 years to a catcher? A 5 year 125 mil contract would have been much better for the Twins
look at it this way, 5 years of a gold glove catcher and 3 years of a solid first baseman.
Plus, he is probably only going to catch 100-120 games, and then the rest go to DH and/or 1b. It should prolong his career a bit.
And decrease his value.
Not necessarily. Playing catcher is a TOUGH job. If he didn’t play that position, he would have far better numbers. That job wears on you as the season goes on. If he played 1b or DH, he would look much better, but at catcher, he has the most value.
“If he didn’t play that position, he would have far better numbers.”
Intuitive but unsupported conjecture.
Years ’09 – ’08 – ’07
as C – .372/.452/.608 – .335/.418/.457 – .294/.380/.441
as DH – .330/.406/.482 – .214/.389/.429 – .281/.385/.344
Even if his production magically increased (and you wouldn’t know if it was, since he wouldn’t be playing at catcher anymore at that point for you to compare) after a position switch, it would have to increase dramatically for his value to approach his paycheck.
Wait a minute. You are telling me, that cased off of a combined 98 PAs at DH in 2007 and 2008, that he can’t adjust to the position? Pardon me if I have trouble considering the validity of the argument. Are you going to throw off the hundreds of Catcher AB’s just for the small sample size of DH AB’s?
This is not even considering that the guy played a bunch of DH early this year to recover from injury in 2009. If he was at full strength, he would at least match if not better his stats.
“Wait a minute. You are telling me, that cased off of a combined 98 PAs at DH in 2007 and 2008, that he can’t adjust to the position?”
Adjust to the position? Of DH?
“Pardon me if I have trouble considering the validity of the argument.”
It wasn’t an argument. I pointed out that your claim that he’d perform better as DH, though seemingly intuitive, is not just unsupported but contradicted by the available evidence. Then I offered the evidence. No one has claimed the evidence is conclusive, only that none of it supports your assertion.
IOW, pardon me if I have trouble considering the validity of your argument.
My point is common sense. The less tenuous a position is, the better the athlete should be able to do over the long haul. Your statistics basically told me that his stats should not necessarily equal his stats at Catcher, which is obviously not true. The point is, we will never know whether or not I am right, but in theory, I am correct. I would be shocked if he couldn’t produce equal or better numbers as a full time DH.
“My point is common sense. The less tenuous a position is, the better the athlete should be able to do over the long haul. ”
Tenuous? STRENUOUS is how we characterize positions in baseball. Tenuous is how we describe your position in this argument. =P
” The point is, we will never know whether or not I am right, but in theory, I am correct.”
No. Your theory is based on nothing related to subject you’re trying to apply it to. Joe Mauer is the subject. And in reality, he hits far WORSE as a DH than as a position player.
He will hit better as a position player though, you say, once he “adjusts to the position”. But there is no position to adjust to, of course, so that’s nonsense too. “Adjust to the position” is a baseball phrase used in reference to players PLAYING new positions IN THE FIELD (and sometimes a new spot in a lineup). Joe Mauer is already adjusted to hitting. There’s no adjustment.
“I would be shocked if he couldn’t produce equal or better numbers as a full time DH.”
Shocked you must be, then.
To be clear, I certainly don’t think he’ll produce numbers MUCH worse when he finally converts, if any. But your original position at the start was that his value won’t be affected much by the eventual switch because his production will actually INCREASE.
As I said in the beginning: that is intuitive but completely unsupported conjecture. It doesn’t qualify as logically necessary from any a priori knowledge and it isn’t supported by any evidence. Which means that it’s something you’d really like to believe but have literally no reason to. There’s no way around it.
I don’t necessarily agree with you about the DH v. C thing, but your tenuous v. strenuous thing gets you a “like.”
Ehhh close enough 🙂
Actually, I never said he would have less value as you think I am, quoting myself:
“Playing catcher is a TOUGH job. If he didn’t play that position, he would have far better >>>>>>>numbers<<<<<<<."
His value would certainly plummet, as DH's and 1b are pretty much a dime a dozen, but to say his statistics wouldn't increase is tenuous (That work for you?).
Adjusting to a position can be used in a positive sense (As in, say, going from C to DH). He's adjusting to the extra energy from not playing Catcher, and as a result, hitting better. That is what I mean.
By adjusting to the position, who knows, maybe he plays 1b. Either as a DH or a 1b, his numbers would go up. I was trying to supply the two most likely positions he would play. Morneau isn't exactly reliable, you know? The point is, you can't say he would hits worse without seeing him do it for a year. You can speculate all you want, but until we know the extent of how much the catcher position holds him back, we will never know.
But you are correct, I have no evidence to support my claim, I only have logic and common sense.
“Actually, I never said he would have less value as you think I am, quoting myself”
No, I said he would have less value at another position. Because he would, necessarily, given the same exact production. That production is far less valuable at first or DH.
Then you said he’d produce MORE at those positions, so his value wouldn’t actually decrease.
Then I showed you why you are probably wrong about that. =P
“But you are correct, I have no evidence to support my claim, I only have logic and common sense.”
No, I explained this too. Because there is literally no evidence for it, the only way your claim would be logical is if it followed necessarily from some a priori knowledge (think laws of physics). It doesn’t, though. So you’re just plain ol’ crazy. =P
“Then you said he’d produce MORE at those positions, so his value wouldn’t actually decrease.
Then I showed you why you are probably wrong about that. =P”
Clearly, we are on two different wavelengths. I’m talking straight statistics, not sabremetric value. I agree that him moving to DH or 1b lowers his value, but numbers will go up at those respective positions, they just won’t mean much, as you claim.
“No, I explained this too. Because there is literally no evidence for it, the only way your claim would be logical is if it followed necessarily from some prior knowledge”
It’s not, and I don’t know why this is being argued. There is no evidence, because right now, there will never be any evidence of it. Joe Mauer will never be a DH in his prime years, only when he is ending his contract will this happen. Point being, we will never know if Mauer will put up better value and/or numbers at a different position, but as you say, logically, it makes sense.
“I’m talking straight statistics, not sabremetric value. I agree that him moving to DH or 1b lowers his value, but numbers will go up at those respective positions, they just won’t mean much, as you claim.”
IF his numbers were to go up (no reason to believe this) A LOT (even less likely), his value might even off. Which still wouldn’t make the contract worth it. In the more likely but still optimistic scenario his numbers remain stable, his position changes, his value decreases, and he is obscenely overpaid.
“the only way your claim would be logical is if it followed necessarily from some prior knowledge”
What did you do, rewrite this? I didn’t say prior knowledge; I said a priori knowledge. 100% different. Important that unless you have access to and are using some, you’ve no leg to stand on re: common sense/logic.
“Point being, we will never know if Mauer will put up better value and/or numbers at a different position, but as you say, logically, it makes sense.
Now you know very well I didn’t say that; you’re just being a sly fox. Leave it at this:
Unless his numbers improve by a large number when he converts position, his value will lessen and he will be even more sorely overpaid.
Basically unless he turns out to be Superman, the contract sucks. Your best argument is not that he is secretly Superman but that like the Yankees, the twins can afford a suckass contract once in awhile.
“What did you do, rewrite this? I didn’t say prior knowledge; I said a priori knowledge. 100% different. Important that unless you have access to and are using some, you’ve no leg to stand on re: common sense/logic.”
My apologies, as I had absolutely no idea what that meant. I assumed a spelling error, so I changed it (I am anal like that). Oh well, but still, what are you telling me? That it’s illogical to conclude that a shift to 1b or DH will improve his statistics? If that is not what you are saying, then please, elaborate, but just because Mauer has not had better numbers as a DH doesn’t mean he never will. (I’m still under the assumption that I don’t know what you are talking about, so I apologize if this is way off topic).
“Now you know very well I didn’t say that; you’re just being a sly fox.’
You told me that intuitively my argument makes sense yes but lacks sheer proof? I paraphrased that very thing. I do not mean to be a weasel, but hey, it is in the eye of the beholder.
NARROWEST COMMENT WINS
VICTORY IS MINE
I’ve got a feeling that Mauer will be a catcher for longer than 5 years, the guy is in much better shape than most of the cheeseburger-eating catchers out there.
bengie molina just gave you a mean look.
So did Rod Barajas.
span keeps saying this puts them on redsox/yankees status… dudes, its not even close…. I am not sure the exact salaries, but the twinkies have to be 50-75m LESS than the sox, never mind the yankees.
I mean that they are willing to spend that much on a player. Not in terms of amount of payroll. Are the Padres going to spend this much on Adrian Gonzalez? Will most teams spend this much on a franchise player? Probably not.
“The great thing about the potential Mauer extension is that the Twins are really leaving the name “small market team”. They are really starting to enter the Red Sox and Yankees stages in terms of payroll.”
doesnt look like thats what you said
Oh yeah.
They are like 30 or so million dollars less than the Yankees and Red Sox and are the Minnesota Twins. How many small market teams would spend that much? And after they did, would you still consider that team small market? Probably not.
actualy they are on the verge of a perennial 100mil payroll team like the giants,cardinals,braves,etc. that puts them at about 30mil less than the red sox and cubs.
closer to 70mil less than the sox
This season, yes. Classically, no. I would be very surprised to see the Red Sox salary to remain around 170 mill beyond this season.
It will decrease. Lowell and Papi could be off the books after this season. Even with the possible Beckett and V-Mart extensions I don’t see it drastically increasing.
it’s not that much.
man do i really have to do this? ok fine.
sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=4…
boston red sox: 122,696,000
That was in April 2009. The Red Sox signed Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro, etc. Its much closer to 170 than to 100 mil.
yeah for 1 freaking season. historically, their a 120-140ish payroll team.
next season, ortiz-lowell-lugo come off the books. thats almost 40million right their.
This doesn’t really seem like a discount to me. Assuming league average defense and 100 games per season at catcher and 50 at DH through the duration of the deal and $4M per WAR he’ll have to churn out 35 wRAA (that translates to roughly a top 25 hitter every year) to be worth the deal.
What worries me is that this might turn into a Eric Chavez situation where the player gets injured and the club is hamstrung by the contract for the last 3-5 years of the deal. That’s the chance you take I guess. I’d just expected it to be more of a discount.
Yeah. A 5 year deal with a few health-based options seems like it would have made more sense to me from an equitable/home town discount perspective.
It definitely isn’t a good deal. People are just happy that he’s staying.
Is that Jim Souhan?
Well, from what Buster Olney (I think it was him- can’t remember exactly) reported, he could have gotten 10 years at 250 million if he went into free agency. If there is any validity to that, that’s why it’s a discount.
I am worried that it could turn into an Eric Chavez situation too, but Mauer has definitely earned this. The Twins had to re-sign him too. Minneapolis would probably riot otherwise.
Well, I guess you’ll never know how much money the Yankees are willing to pay for any given player at any given moment. I have a hard time imagining any other club would be willing to pay more than 200M for a couple of reasons.
1) He gets almost half of his value from catching. Given his size there has been rumblings for years that he might eventually have to move off catcher. A 35 wRAA bat at a corner outfield position is a 4 to 4.5 WAR player. That would be a 16-18M player rather than a 23M player. This is with no regression in his hitting due to age on a contract that would take him through his age 37 season. Say he moves off catcher after his age 33 season and starts to decline in his hitting skills after his age 35 season. Then he projects to average just under 4 WAR per year for the last 4 years of the deal. That translates to a market value of 62M for the last 4 years and 200M for a 10 year deal.
2) The one thing that can really derail a long term contract (see Chavez, Eric) is injuries and Mauer has had more than a months worth of DL-days for three of the last six years. This has to be a concern as well.
For these two reasons I think it is highly unlikely that he would get a 200M deal from anyone other than the Yankees. Would he be able to get a deal north of 200M from them? Maybe, but they would have to bid seriously against themselves to get to 250M.
Yea, I kinda thought that 250M was a stretch. I was just going off what the “experts” were saying on the matter. I would not be surprised that the Yankees would have offered him that kind of money, however.
Now that one big name is off the market, is Pujols or A-Gonz next?
neither. Beckett is next. I don’t think the Cardinals will be able to retain Albert.
I would say Pujols. If he doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, he will in the next. I also feel A-gon will get his money when he is FA.
That contract will be an albatross for the Twins. Great day for the rest of the AL Central.
Even if he doesn’t live up to the hype, the money he makes off jerseys and other things for the Twins is totally worth his contract.
Actually, all money made off of jerseys and other merchandise being sold goes to MLB and is equally distributed between the 30 teams.
I fail, I meant attendance, don’t know why I typed jerseys. Thanks for catching me on it.
Only if they spend it on better contracts that this one.
The fact is, the Twins aren’t known as a big FA splash team. They grow talent better than most teams in the country, and that should help them immensely considering what they pay Morneau and Mauer.
don’t forget that joe nathan is gonna get 11million bucks to sit out the season.
And they will have talent (or trade for Bell, I suppose) to replace him. Rauch is not that bad of an option, he didn’t do that badly in Arizona.
His contract is insured. The Twins say they’ll get at least half of the Nathan contract back at the end of the season.
Mauer’s is probably insured too, but I really am not worried about it right now. I think at least the first half of this contract is going to be completely fine.
This post won’t post for some reason!!
They’re a big homegrown splash team.
Problem is the size & nature of the splash, not where it came from.
Bitter much? No way is playing a guy like Mauer ever a good thing. His bat is always going to be there and he’s athletic enough to make a very good defensive 1B or 3B.
The value of his bat (production) changes according to which position he plays (and how well he plays it). The poster is correct.
It’s possible. It’s no secret that signing players to massive contracts has a potential downside. But did they really have a choice?
Yes.
Losing Mauer to Minnesota would be like losing Pujols to St. Louis. The city would riot and probably burn down the town.
No it would not and no it would not be/have been. Especially if his value was maximized in a trade that landed them more than one high-ceiling player with zero through-the-ceiling contracts.
name me one player who was actually available in the trade pool that has nearly the potential as mauer.
I don’t know who was available in the trade pool and I doubt you do either. But it’s worth saying that as good is he is, you & the rest should lose the idea that Mauer’s talent & potential are unmatched. They just aren’t.
More importantly, even if you or I DID know who would be available in the trade pool, we can’t know who would have been MADE available if the Twins had elected to make Mauer available & work the market for swaps as San Diego has with Gonzalez.
ok lets rephrase this. name me one catcher in the history of baseball that has won 3 batting crowns and 2 gold gloves. i can think of quite a few firstbaseman/3rdbaseman/outfielders but those are “power” positions. very very seldom do you see a catcher being able to produce these types of offensive numbers while actually being able to..well..catch.
and don’t even try to pull that “well he won’t catch forever” card. because he is still gonna catch for atleast the next 5 years. he isn’t even 27 yet.
How WELL he catches for 5, 6, or 8 years matters. Not that Gold Gloves mean anything, but even if his middle name was Molina, by the time he’s 33 it’s more likely to be Napoli than Laird.
That is a very primitive way of thinking about it.
If you can even come close to matching his production at a lesser cost, you’ve done better.
Let’s say you acquire 3 players — an MLB regular, an above avergae regular, and an occasional all-star. The total cost of the three will not usually exceed what you pay for Mauer. Depending on how old they are (probably not very in this situation), you’ll either have short-term commitments or longer-term very inexpensive ones.
Another factor, granted, is that these players would need to represent increases in production, on balance, over what you would have had at those positions if you hadn’t made the trade. But it’s safe to say if you’re the Twins you’re not dumb enough to trade for a first baseman, for example.
This doesn’t even account for the increased possibilities younger, less expensive talent affords you in terms of flexibility and subsequent trades. But even ignoring that, the net production you’d have is comparable to what it would be if you kept Mauer. And the cost is a fraction this 8 year, $184 million dollar commitment to one player.
What team would possible give him fair value in a trade? If the Red Sox won’t fork over the prospects for Adrian, then they certainly won’t for Mauer. However, this trade affects attendance, playoff revenue. These prospects also don’t have the ceiling of Mauer, even if you Twins get Matt Wieters. Ill take Mauer every time.
Because you fail to consider costs while salivating over the benefits.
The uniqueness of Mauer’s ceiling costs more than someone like Wieters. Without an increase in the margin of production commensurate with the increased cost, you’re losing value. Plain and simple.
A calculation of benefit which does not account for cost is hardly a calculation of benefit at all.
Why not make him your franchise? Why keep using the strategy that the Marlins have been perfecting for years? The team’s payroll is growing at a huge rate, and they can afford the extra money that Mauer costs without losing the production. Why take the huge risk that comes with prospect development and settle with what you have? You are assuming that trading for prospects = instant benefit. Eventually, you have to stick with what you have, and keep building on it, which is what the Twins have effectively done.
“Why not make him your franchise? Why keep using the strategy that the Marlins have been perfecting for years?”
This is a false dichotomy. There are other options. Trading for established prospects a guy who will certainly command ~200m is not unique to the Marlins or even to small markets. It’s basically unique to teams whose executives are good at math.
“The team’s payroll is growing at a huge rate, and they can afford the extra money that Mauer costs without losing the production.”
They can afford to be dumb. That’s actually a valid argument. The Yankees are famous for it.
“You are assuming that trading for prospects = instant benefit. Eventually, you have to stick with what you have, and keep building on it, which is what the Twins have effectively done.”
No I’m not, no you don’t, and the Twins haven’t done that much effectively in recent history. I’ll elaborate on each of those if you want, but not yet since I’m not overly confident at this point that you read much of it.
If you please expand on your point then, because I am not seeing what you are trying to sell me.
(1) My explanations don’t depend on prospects fulfilling their potential immediately. Because their costs and control periods are lower & longer — and because you can choose to some extent which prospects (positionally) you want — both their gradual and eventual payoffs in production serve you well.
Granted, even though you probably eventually will, you probably won’t replace the traded Superstar’s production immediately. Not through that transaction alone, anyway. But it’s not the only transaction you can make. There are several other less expensive, less risky ways to acquire the production. Blockbuster trades are only the most popular.
(2) You don’t have to “stick with what you have” when it means coughing up 8 years and 184 mil. You just don’t. Success, short or long term, simply does not depend on it. You’ll need both hands to count the teams who bear this out.
(3) Despite making the playoffs 5 times since 2001, the Twins have won more than 94 games only once since then — and only even made it to the ALCS once (a 4-1 series loss). Given their division, that reads more like effective mediocrity to me than anything else.
1. Alright, if I am understand your logic, then why would the other team in turn deal fair value for a guy in Mauer’s situation if they had to pay the guy 23 million (Who knows, maybe more if he actually gave a discount)? I understand that prospects are cheaper and in the long run can replace his production, but even ignoring the risk, there’s no guarantee that you will be able to get a fair exchange even in potential for your superstar.
2. Indeed, you do not have to resign your superstar, I agree with that, but I am not understanding the rest of your point. If you could elaborate, that would be fantastic.
3.
* 2009: $ 65,299,266
* 2008: $ 56,932,766
* 2007: $ 71,439,500
* 2006: $ 63,396,006
* 2005: $ 56,186,000
* 2004: $ 53,585,000
* 2003: $ 55,505,000
* 2002: $ 40,225,000
* 2001: $ 24,130,000
This is the collective payroll of the twins since 2001. Now tell me, when you are competing with the likes of Detroit and CHW, can you really blame them for only being able to field above average teams and not stellar ones? You do at least have to give them credit for what they have accomplished. Now, if their payroll scales to 90-100 million, like it is projected to, then maybe they can field better teams and invest more into scouting and/or FA pickups, but I can’t blame them for not being more successful than they already are.
(1) “Fair exchange”/”fair value” is a slippery concept for most, GMs included. As for why another team would do it: plenty of them are short-sighted. Google “time preference”.
(2) What needs elaboration? We seem to agree that success does not depend on biggest-ticket.
(3) Credit where its due. You wouldn’t hear catch talking down the Twins much before this signing.
What does (3) say, you ask? It says “that is one beer too many”.
You wouldn’t catch (or hear) ME talking down the Twins much before today’s signing.
The White Sox and Tigers can spend too, playoff revenue might not even be a factor.
The Twins pretty much need to get to the playoffs just to be on the same level as Detroit or CHW. If they don’t have a guy like Mauer to carry them into it, eventually, they won’t be able to compete.
Nice. A world of thanks to the many people who worked hard for years and years, pushing to get Target Field built. If it weren’t for this awe-inspiring stadium, which I toured yesterday for the 1st time, Mauer would have been traded for peanuts this offseason, just like Santana was.
Just to compare Mauer to the biggest contract out there for kicks:
A-Rod: $32-million in 2010 – Quad line: .286/.402/.532/.933
Mauer: $23-million average – Quad line: .365/.444/.587/1.031
Yes A-Rod’s contact is bloated, but it still shows Mauer took a paycut for his home town. Some may disagree, but I also feel that catcher is a more important defensive position than 3B too.
This may also set a bar for a Pujols extension too.
However, when A-Rod signed his contract, the market was very different.
A-Rod was also a better player.
He was also taking steroids.
A different market doesn’t apply to the Yankees. I do agree with Rev that A-Rod was a better player at the time, but he still wasn’t worth $32-million for 2 years.
I, for one, completely agree with you that a catcher is more important defensively. Not saying that 3B isn’t important defensively, because it is extremely. However, a catcher can basically dictate how a game can play out with how knowledgeable they are with opposing hitters and knowing what pitches to call at certain times. I think it’s the second hardest position to play in ANY sport. That’s what makes this contract so special. Sure, his bat and glove are great, but his intelligence and reliability at such a hard position put him over the top.
love it – good signing, good for MIN, good for baseball all around. He’s definitely worth more than the 23M a year, at least for the last couple of years. MVP, 3 time batting champ, 2 GG’s and 3 SS’s, he was on the 60 day DL only once 6 years ago, and he turns the ripe old age of 27 this year. The twins will get at least 6 or 7 good years out of him.
i think this means Mauer is more likely to become a red sox or yankee
im not sure if the twins can afford this kind of deal
they must be planning to “bank” on the new stadium despite the economy
Mauer for Bowden + cash?????!!!!!
more like mauer for lowrie with twins paying his entire contract.
while were at it, they can trade the cardinals lowell for pujols.
Oh, look guys, outrageous trade proposals arise yet again! What fun!
I think those were supposed to be sarcastic…
As was my comment. I’m just a bit sick of all these sarcastic posts, especially the “wacky trade” post. After the twentieth one, it gets a little repetitive.
I hear ya, man. My apologies for not interpreting the sarcasm in yours.
So wouldn’t this make him on the Twins for 9 years (including 2010)? Correct me if I’m wrong.
This deal is GREAT for baseball. It’s slightly below-market but still a HUGE contract and it keeps some parity in the AL. Thank God this deal got done so quickly.
Glad this got done. Now I can get my Joe Mauer Jersey and not worry about him leaving
I took the leap of faith and bought mine last season and now i’m really glad I have it! Will be torn and frayed by the time Mauer’s (hopefully long) career is over. Good work TWINS!
Good, now they need to focus on making a trade for a closer.
Great deal for him and baseball. Thank god he wont be on the red sux.
great for the twins and awful for the red sox! this is a good good day!
its kind of scary signing a catcher to a long contract but i think you have to take a chance with Mauer. Hes a once in a lifetime type of catcher.
Great for Mauer, great for the Twins, great for baseball.
As much as we’d all love to have a player like Mauer on our own teams, I think we can all agree that he should be a Twin for life. Kudos to their FO on getting this done.
Excellent for baseball!
Good job Twinkies.
I don’t think it’s “great for the baseball world” because it’s not going to change anything. You still will have your cheap owners, and players come and go from teams all the time. With that being said, I’m very happy for Twins fans. Ten years ago this team and the Expos were supposed to be gone from baseball, and now the Twins have a new ballpark and a franchise player. Very nice.
Yeah, I’m not getting that “great day for baseball stuff” either. We’re not talking about Jeffery Loria’s Marlins suddenly signing a $20M player, we’re talking about a team that’s always had money spending it.
You know what ? Its a great day for Joe Mauer. ~$23 M per. Daaamn.
That I’ll agree to.
Well, I don’t think the Marlins signing a 20m player would be a great day for baseball either, because whatever we want to say about owners pocketing cash, that would not be fiscally responsible for that team at all. They don’t have as strong of a fan base, and a much lower salary budget (even if they weren’t so stingy as they reportedly are). Mauer is a franchise player, that’s why this was important for baseball. He proved that some people will take a discount (well, 23m is still damn good) in loyalty to their team. Mauer is a Minnesota guy. If the Twins had tried to trade him, or if Mauer decided to hold out until free agency so as to get the big bucks from the Red Sox and Yankees outbidding each other, it would be another disappointing day for baseball as yet another star cashes in instead of being loyal to a team. I don’t know why so many of them are this greedy, anyway…doesn’t seem like there is too much of a difference from 10 million to 25 million….both salaries are ENORMOUS sums of money. You could live very well just from one lump sum of 10 million, let alone getting that every year. Baseball players are very, very well paid, and yet for some reason a large majority of them want to hold out for every last penny.
after seeing this im hoping A-Gon stays put now as well. i wanted Mauer to go to another team but not Sox/Yanks. so i guess im happy with them keeping him.
Free agent sign-aways are a bit different from blockbuster trades to bigger markets.
I’d feel bad for Adrian if he had to keep hitting in San Diego.
All the Twins fans assuming they can trade for Heath Bell remind me of all the Red Sox fans assuming they can trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Yes it’s all possible, but don’t go assuming. It makes you sound snobbish.
The Twins have a much better shot at trading for Bell than the Sox do of getting Gonzalez. With the Mauer deal, blue chip prospect Wilson Ramos becomes expendable
Twins can trade Ramos for Bell
Too bad for you Yankees fans drooling over the possibility of signing him to a contract bigger than A-Rod, cough A-Fraud. Sure you can have him when he’s 40 and has nothing left. LOL
This news will of course start a flurry of comments/articles/blog postings about the value of big contracts. Take a look at the top 14 by average per year:
A-Rod, NYY: (2008-2018) 27.5 mil
A-Rod, Tex: (2001-2010) 25.2 mil
CC Sabathia, NYY: (2009-2015) 23 mil
Joe Mauer, Min: (2011-2018) 23 mil
Mark Teixiera, NYY: (2009-2016) 22.5 mil
Johan Santana, NYM: (2008-2013) 22.9 mil
Manny Ramirez, Bos: (2001-2008) 20 mil
Miguel Cabrera, Det: (2008-2015) 19.03 mil
Derek Jeter, NYY: (2001-2010) 18.9 mil
Barry Zito, SFG: (2007-2013) 18 mil
Vernon Wells, Tor: (2008-2014) 18 mil
Jason Giambi, NYY: (2002-2008) 17.14
Matt Holliday, StL: (2010-2016) 17.14
Alfonso Soriano, ChC: (2007-2014) 17 mil
The first item of note: 5 of them are Yankees contracts (6 if you count the 2004-2007 portion of A-Rod’s first contract).
I think this is important to note because although these players (A-Rod, Sabathia, Teixiera, Jeter and Giambi) are worth large contracts, you can make a pretty good argument that the contracts are so large because it was the Yankees that signed them. A player like Lance Berkman or Chipper Jones would have made more than 14 mil and 15 mil in their prime contract years had they signed with the Yankees. Likewise, Mark Teixiera or Derek Jeter would have made less if they had signed with the Atros or Braves.
Second item of note: 3 of the contracts were given to pitchers, making a comparison to Mauer’s contract difficult.
Third item of note: Half of the contracts are under 20 mil a year, making the comparison difficult.
This leaves 2 contracts for comparison: A-Rod’s contract with Texas and Manny Ramirez’s contract with Boston. The problem there is that both of the players were signed as FAs.
In the end, Joe Mauer’s contract is unlike any other contract in baseball. I think this is fitting because Mauer is unlike any player in baseball.
I like the length, but not the money so much. Sure, he’s a great average hitter and a solid defender, but I think he should have more solid power and run producing numbers to earn the $23. I hate Jeter’s contract too. In spite of his great season last year, Jeter has always put up just above average numbers year after year, yet he’s the 2nd highest player in the game. I think Mauer’s worth more around $17 million anually, and Jeter around $12, not $23 and $24.
Why does everyone keep saying that mauer wll finish out his contract as a dh look at his build and athleticsm and he can definetly be at least an above average third baseman defensively with amazing numbers five yes catcher three years at third thats an extrmely valuable player
so much for a hometown discount
Wow, the Twins are going to regret this deal!
The best thing for this organization would have been to let him walk. Mid market organizations just can’t allocate that kind of money to one person, it cripples the franchise. Considering Mauer is a catcher with a history of injuries make this even worse. My guess in 3 years this contract will surpass Vernon Wells as the worst in baseball.
Sorry Minnesota, you may be happy now, but this is a terrible thing for the franchise.
Am I the only one that thinks this is a bad deal for the Twins? Mauer had a ridiculous season last year but hasn’t had another season duplicating those power numbers ever. I think he’s a real good ball player, but I would be hesitant to give that many years to a catcher because they can just seem to lose it somehow. One day Mike Piazza woke up and couldn’t throw anybody out. Russell Martin and Soto just stopped hitting. Remember Javy Lopez? 40+ homers with the Braves then what? Released by the O’s. Just saying if your gonna give him 20+ mil a year, maybe you should keep it around five years or so. The no trade clause is the dumbest part, dude could’ve fetched a haul after a couple more good years with the twinkies.
“One day Mike Piazza woke up and couldn’t throw anybody out. ” – I don’t really understand how something that happened to Piazza when he was 15 is going to have any relation to Mauer’s contract.
Mauer’s value isn’t based on homers, its based on his OBP. Mauer’s career OBP would be in the top 40 of all-time if he had enough PAs to qualify. Very few of the guys ahead of him on the list played a premium defensive position. The vast majority are first basemen and corner outfielders. His 5th among active players, and everyone ahead of him is also an 1st basemen or corner outfielder. It is very rare to have someone who is a good defender at a premium position with an OBP as good as Mauer.
People who compare him to Javy Lopez probably don’t know what they are talking about and their opinions should be discarded.