Once the Tigers traded Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for four pre-arbitration eligible players, the thought was that owner Mike Ilitch was trimming payroll after the recession hit Detroit especially hard. However, he then approved a massive extension for ace Justin Verlander as well as the signing of Johnny Damon, and now his team's Opening Day payroll is expected to be somewhere around $130MM, up from $115MM last year.
Lynn Henning of The Detroit News wrote about the payroll savings GM Dave Dombrowski will enjoy after the season, which are pretty significant. Here's a look at the money the Tigers have coming off the books after the 2010 season…
- Jeremy Bonderman, $12.5MM salary in 2010
- Dontrelle Willis, $12MM
- Nate Robertson, $10MM
- Johnny Damon, $8MM
- Brandon Inge, $6.6MM
- Gerald Laird, $3.95MM
- Bobby Seay, $2.475MM
- Adam Everett, $1.5MM
That's $57.025MM in savings right there, and the team would be wise to avoid letting Magglio Ordonez reach the 540 plate appearances needed for his $15MM option to vest.
Ilitch isn't shy about spending big on the free agent market, and he'll have the money available to add a big bat to complement Miguel Cabrera (Jayson Werth, Aramis Ramirez if he declines his option?) as well as another elite starter to a rotation that already includes Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer (Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee?) after the season. Keep in mind that I was just throwing some names out there off our 2011 free agents list, and that the Tigers have not been linked to any of those players in any rumors we've seen.
The Tigers are already in a position to compete in the AL Central, and once they shed some dead money after the season, they'll have a chance to jump ahead of the pack if they spend wisely.
All this should mean is that when next Hot Stove League begins, The Tigers should be spending big! Cliff Lee? Ted Lilly? Aramis Ramirez? Carl Crawford? Jayson Werth? Chad Qualls? There are a ton of things that the Tigers can do but one thing for certain, They will be the Seattle Mariners of last off-season.
chad qualls haha. hopefully they take seattle’s defensive stance too, and make Carl Crawford their Chone Figgins. His diving grabs, robbed home-runs, cannon arm, .300+ batting average, and 60 Sbs, will put enough people in the stands by himself. Make Javy Vazquez their Cliff Lee, only costing them money instead of years. AND HOPEFULLY, make Adrian Gonzalez their Casey Kotchman haha. I live to dream.
o and make adam everett their jack wilson and cut ties with brandon inge and magglio, like Seattle cut ties with Branyan and Beltre.
Tigers should be the model for what NOT to do when it comes to signing starting pitchers.
Bonderman + Willis + Robertson = $34.5 Million Dollars!
Entire 2009 Florida Marlins Team Payroll = $36.8 Million Dollars!
What’s more embarrassing?? The MARLINS had 1 more win and 2 less losses than the Tigers had in 2009!! If that doesn’t make you say WHOA, I’m not sure what will. Whoa!
In all fairness, I liked the Bonderman extension at first….had no idea the guys arm was going to fall off. But signing Willis to an extension? Ugghhhh makes my head spin
So you are saying that you had an idea that Dontrelle would fall apart? As far as I’m concerned, if the Tigers didn’t think Willis would dominate during the 3 year period, they wouldn’t have locked him up or even acquired him.
The problem with the Willis contract is that 1) he was coming off a bad year with the Marlins, and 2) he hadn’t even thrown a pitch for him yet.
I agree. He had a contract in the 5.00’s but they thought he was going to have a solid season. Still, Nobody thought he was going to win only 1 game over the past two seasons.
They thought he was going to have a solid season, while many others said it would have been a terrible idea to extend him. No defense for that extension, or the Robertson one.
Wasn’t he a non-negotiatable throw in for Miggy? I thought he was part of the package
I’m saying I don’t think they would have made the trade. They expected him to bounce back.
Yes, but they extended his current contract after the got him. In my opinion even the new contract of Dontrelle is worth having Cabrera until 2015.
I think Dunn would be a solid FA addition if he would accept a DH role and play in a pitcher’s park. Heck, with that much cash freed up (assuming Ordonez doesn’t stay) they could get Dunn, Werth, and a mid range quality starter like de la Rosa.
They could get a lot more than that.
I don’t see CC being attainable, but anything is possible. Illitch is a fan first and an owner second, and he doesn’t mind overpaying for big names to put some butts in the seats
Mauer! Haha.
Of course I don’t really mean that…
And I don’t really believe the Tigers are going to be the “big spenders” everyone projects them to be. They should, at least, spend only a small portion of the money that’s coming off the books, due to the fact Detroit can’t support a $130 million+ baseball team with this economy.
Now, that’s not saying that I don’t want them to spend! Heck, I want Crawford, Lee, Werth, Dunn, you name it! However, I just think too many big contracts in Detroit would be unwise.
But, Verlander and Cabrera need help (and the Tigers FO needs to keep them happy…)
This argument is getting old. Detroit came in 12th overall in attendance, only beat by the obvious big markets (Chicago, new York, LA)..Michigan isn’t some barren wasteland where people are living out of boxes, bleacher tickets at Comerica are like 15 bucks…people still go to the games. No way are they going to spend 130mm next year, but 100mm+ isn’t out of the question. They only have Cabrera, Verlander,Valverde, and Guillen on contract for next year…not a bad core to build around.
Yeah. I also don’t see $100 mil out of the question.
I just think where they are now is a little too high.
Beckett, Werth, and Dunn is my bet. I think the Tigers could be quite the formidable team in the near future.
With a combo of a few free agents and the kids that we have on the way, this team is going to be a force. We’ve got some nice young arms like Crosby, Oliver, and Turner who will all be ready in the next 1-3 years. I’m guessing that Beckett will resign with the Red Sox, but I can see us getting Lilly to bridge the gap.
I’d take Vazquez over Lilly, given Lilly’s recent shoulder problems and Vazquez’s unmatched durability.
I wonder if the Tigers could be a dark horse for Adrian Gonzalez? They have a few prospects like Turner, Crosby and Oliver that might interest the Padres. Adrian is cheap for the next two years and they have all that money coming off the books. I realize they have Cabrera but, he could move to DH where he belongs and they could have a devestading 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup.
cabrera has average defense. especially sense he was brought up through the minors as a 3rd baseman and is adjusting to a new position. not worth DHing him…yet.
Cabrera’s bat alone is worth his contract. It wouldn’t be a terrible thing financially to DH him if it meant his already god-like bat becoming even better with protection. Also, would vastly improve detroit’s infield defense which is financially benefitting.
I have been all for this idea for quite some time. Why not sign a proven 40 Homerun guy in a pitcher’s ball-park to a team with actual protection in a pitcher’s ball park? It makes more sense than taking a chance on Werth or Dunn, who have done all their work producing in hitter’s paradises and in protected lineups. (Werth more-so than Dunn) Trade for Gonzalez and extend him long-term. That way, they don’t have to compete with the likes of new york, chicago, or boston in a bidding war.
Cabrera doesn’t belong at DH. He’s a fine defender at first and is only improving.
I’d rather have the 3 young pitchers and Miguel than a Carbrera/Gonzalez combo
I agree I’d rather have all three pitchers. But I would be willing to part with one or two plus like Casper Wells/Wilkin Ramirez or even Ryan Strieby to get A-Gonz. Turner is a Boras client, and I hope Dave Dombrowski doesn’t start to become Boras’ go-to-guy. Some say he already is.
finally. Hopefully 72MM. How should Detroit spend it? They already raise payroll 5MM by paying MCab 20MM next year instead of 15MM. Verlander gets a huge raise also and will be making a lot of money later in the contract. They also commited money for next year to Valverde (wise in my opinion). They shouldn’t get caught up in more than 2-3 more long term deals.
Crawford 6-8 years (18-20MM per)
V-Mart 4-5 years (13-15MM per)
Javier Vazquez 4 years (12-14MM per)
Inge 1-2 years (4-6MM per)
Everett 1 year (2MM)
A little Bullpen help(if they have any more money)
Crawford will be the excellent defensive LF, lead-off hitter they desperately need. They are stuck with Guillen for one more year and 11MM, I would try playing him at 3b. They need to be beyond aggressive on this one; there will be heavy competition. If they’re even in contention this year, I would even justify trading prospects and extending Crawford, if its a sure option that he’d sign one.
V-Mart can catch for them next year, and give Alex Avila (the next Mike Piazza) even more seasoning. So when Avila is even more seasoned, they can have V-Mart’s .300, switch-hittting bat staying healthy at DH, and switching out to play 1b with MCab DH-ing on somedays. Main competition will no doubt be Boston, and he seems to like Boston a lot. Hopefully, the best offer can sway him though. If they don’t get him, I would make Carlos Pena the second choice, given how well he has hit in the AL East and at Tampa’s pitcher’s park, AL Central should be a cakewalk. Adam Dunn or LaRoche wouldn’t be bad alternatives either.
Vazquez will provide the veteran presence in the lineup they need, will dominate in the AL Central after having pitched a year in the AL East, and is almost always healthy. Yanks will probably want to resign him, but I argue that they might prioritize for cliff lee, given that he’s the lefty that could replace pettite’s huge salary.
Inge has been in the Tiger’s system awhile and he’s a fan-favorite. He plays great defense and is a genuine character in the clubhouse. He has power too. They should at least offer him arb, and if he rejects it, put out a decent effort to resign.
Everett also plays excellent defense, and given the scarcity of SS, at least he does that. He took a very reasonable contract this offseason to play in Detroit, and my hunch is he’d do it again next year knowing he’d have a full-time job and not have to move.
I know a lot of these offering prices are awfully high, but it’s Detroit. It’s difficult to lure the top free agents there, so Detroit should make offers that can’t be refused. If they do wind up keeping Magglio for 2011, they should still stay under payroll. If they don’t, they still have a decent amount to spend, but given the economy, my guess is it will be minorly spent on arb. raises and lower payroll a bit.
This would be an excellent Detroit team in my opinion. Defensively sound and with an offense that will get on base more and hit for a much higher average.
LF Crawford
CF Austin Jackson
1b McCab
C VMart
DH Guillen
3b Inge
RF Rayburn/possibly Magglio/Casper Wells/Wilkin Ramirez
2b Sizemore
SS Everett/Iorg
Rotation
Verlander
Vazquez
Scherzer
Porcello
Crosby/Turner/Gallaraga
Bullpen
Closer-Valverde
Relievers-Coke/Schelereth/Zumaya/Perry/(Possible Signings)
4-5 yrs at 13-15 mil for V-Mart? Javier Vazquez for 4 years at 12-15 mil?! For all the Tigers fans, I hope not. They’ve suffered through enough bad contracts.
like i said. those are over-estimates, because Detroit will have to overpay to land the top tier free agents. I can’t imagine how much they’d have to overpay to get Josh Beckett or Cliff Lee to come. They might have to give them CC Sabathia money to consider it. as for V-Mart, he’s explosive as they come at catcher and has already stated he’d prefer to be extended in Boston.
i don’t care how good of defense crawford has. his obp is pretty weak and he has way overrated power for a left fielder. he shouldn’t get a dime over 16mil..let alone 20mil.
Detroit is going to have to overpay to get him. They will be competing with the Yankees for sure, and possibly the Red Sox as well.
I’ll have a go at a 2011 projection:
1. Jackson CF
2. Sizemore 2B
3. Cabrera 1B
4. Dunn DH (3/36)
5. Werth RF (5/85)
6. Raburn LF
7. Inge? 3B (2/10)
8. Avila C
9. Everett? SS (1/1.5)
Verlander
Porcello
Scherzer
de la Rosa (3/22)
Galarraga/Bonine
CL Valverde
Zumaya
Coke
Perry
Minor
Very doable and looks very good.
I like that lineup and it looks good but I don’t think they will pay Carlos Guillen 11MM to sit on the bench. While I think both Dunn and Werth would be great additions, I think Crawford would be a better option than Werth, even if it means offering up MUCH more money. Werth put up his numbers in the stacked Phillies lineup in that hitter’s park. He would be moving to a pitcher’s park. Dunn is great, but he has only hit in the NL and in hitter’s parks. I love the de la Rosa signing, he could be a great value. However, if they had more money to give, I would upgrade to Javier Vazquez, a veteran presence, who is a proven workhorse, and would love the pitching park Comerica.
I wish people would stop throwing the comment out there that Dunn only hit in pitchers’ parks. He hit 38 homeruns (2 less than the previous years) with a slugging percentage above his career average in a pitcher’s haven in Washington last year with arguably some of the worst protection he’s ever had in a lineup. I don’t particularly like his skill-set but he’s about as predictable as they come. I don’t think there’s a guy in baseball as consistent as he is.
Washington’s not a pitcher’s haven. Zimmerman is great protection. That being said, I would love to have Dunn in our lineup, but I think there are some better options.
After checking into my own comments (which I should have done before posting them) I see that the last few years National’s park is right around the middle of the pack, every so slightly favoring hitters.
However, I stand by the comment of Dunn not having protection. Zimmerman spent the majority of his ABs in the 3-hole with Dunn behind him. Dukes and Willingham spent the most time batting 5th. In a tight situation, pitchers are definitely pitching around Dunn to take a chance at the guys behind him.
I also agree that the Tigers don’t need to be tied-down w/ a non-versatile player like Dunn. Though for that price (probably 2 yrs 20 million), I’m not sure how much better you’re going to do.
De La Rosa will probably find another team to give him more than 22mil over 3 years.
his era last year, what i consider his breakout year, his away ERA was around 3.30.
i see randy wolf money in his future.
I think this is pretty legit. I’d LOVE to bring in Dunn as our DH next year. Not so sure on de la Rosa, but they will find a FA starter to add to the rotation
Manny?
Instead of Galarraga/Bonine, I’d stick Casey Crosby there. I also think Casper Wells will be better than Ryan Raburn.
I really like the idea of getting Werth. I wish there was a better option than Inge at 3B.
Let’s sub Manny Ramirez (2/24 to DH) in for Dunn and now in my personal opinion you have a deadly 1-2 punch.
unless the tigers trade some prospects they won’t spend big money on a stater next off season unless they trade a prospect. Verlander , Scherzer, Porcello , Crosby & Turner may be the opening 2011 staff. That is a scary rotation with 5 potential aces. More likely they will give Turner a extra year in AAA and sign a cheap innings eater or hope bonine or galaraga is servicable. Although I could see them making a play for prince fielder and maybe trading a package of crosby , oliver , strieby and maybe guillen (eating most of the salary) if guillen doesn’t get it done toss in raburn. Cabrera and fielder would be the best 3-4 in tigers history
it would be nice to have another FIELDER on the Tigers. Cecil would be happy. Although, not to be picky, I must say I might prefer them to spend the prospects on Adrian Gonzalez. He might be a better call than Prince, whose weight concerns me long-term.
Yes the shed alot of payroll but with the 8 players that you assume walk after this year you are left with no one at C/SS/LF/RF(possibly), 4-5 starter & possibly more depending on how 2B & CF pan out this year.
Those are alot of holes to fill and despite Ilitch’s desire to spend way over the teams budget with 0 division titles to his name the way their GM has spent millions to lock up stars in Willis, Bonderman, Robertson, Ordonez, Sheffield, etc doesn’t make me too concerned as a white sox fan.
They’re already good enough to contend for the division, imagine how good they will be with that much money to spend.
Why is it that everyone thinks Scherzer is already a 15-20 game winner?
Am I missing something, he hasn’t done anything yet?
His first full season was last year.
170 and 1/3 innings
4.12 ERA
174 K
9.19 K/9
2.76 K/BB
Would people stop claiming that Adam Dunn only hit in pitcher’s parks. If Detroit is looking for a pure power hitter, he’s about as consistent and predictable as you get. I don’t particularly like his narrow skill-set, but he beat his career averages in slugging and on-base percentage in DC which is NOT A HITTER’S PARK AT ALL. Let’s also not forget that he didn’t have much help in that line-up outside of Zimmerman. I don’t see how anyone can say that he’s being helped by favorable parks. Not to mention that his home/away splits show no such assistance over the last several years.
To clarify, I’m not trying to say the only reason Adam Dunn is good is because he hit in hitter’s parks and he’s played his whole career in the National League. I think he’s an excellent player and I would love for the Tigers to have him. BUT the two players I’d prefer over Dunn are Victor Martinez and Carlos Pena. Pena would be an upgrade defensively at 1b unlike Dunn and he hit for about the same amount of power as Dunn, PLAYING IN THE AL EAST, the toughest hitter’s division. V-Mart would provide less power but higher average at C, and could give Avila more seasoning in the minors, and switch to DH when Avila’s ready. He could also give Miguel rest at 1b and is a switch hitter and it’s always good to have a switch hitting DH.
Man it’s going to be fun to be a Tigers fan for the next 3-4 years. I love the direction this team is going and I can’t wait to see what next off-season brings. I like the youth in the new additions to the line-up this year: Jackson, Sizemore, Scherzer, and Coke. Everyones mentioned the big 3 arms on the way, Turner, Crosby, and Oliver, plus there are some nice relievers that can have an impact very soon like Satterwhite and Schlereth. The organization might be lacking prospects in the position player area, but I really like Avila and Casper Wells.
I’m okay with the rooks Ajax and Sizemore learning on the fly this year. With a year of experience under their belt they should really start settling in next year. Go out and get a big bat, a speed guy with a mix of power and average, and a good-decent starter and this team will be very very competitive in the Central
While the Tigers have a lot to money to spend I don’t see them making as big a splash in free agency as many think. I think they payroll will be around 80-85 range million using the savings to compensate for the money the spent thest three off-seasons. This would put them in the upper to mid market range where they belong. See them making a run at Crawford early and possibly a lefty on a one year deal. With the young pitching coming up (Crosby, Turner, Oliver) makes no sense to impede their path by signing a starter to a long term deal. They signed their big free agent by extending Verlander this year.
Lineup Projection
1.) Crawford LF
2.) Sizemore 2b/Iwamora (If Sizemore proves he can’t be a full time MLBer this year
3.) Ordonez DH/RF (If healthy and Tigers are in it his option will vest)
4.) Cabrera 1B
5.) Strieby DH/RF (Watch for big year and minors and Tigers forced to get bat in lineup)
6.) Avila C
7.) Inge 3b (re-signed on a one year deal plus mutual option)
8.) Jackson CF
9.) Santiago/Nunez SS (Bring speed and athletic glove)
Rotation
Verlander
Porcello
Scherzer
Crosby
Turner (Will be fast tracked ala Porcello)
Could see a lefty like Kiruoda signed on a 1 year deal of Lilly if he his value comes down due to injury or regression. Al
5.)
I don’t see Illitch reducing the payroll that much. I think it will be at least $100 million and possibly as much as $120 million.
I honestly see Strieby as trade bait rather than stay with the Tigers. Cabrera is blocking him at 1B, Guillen is blocking him at DH and Wilkin Ramirez and Casper Wells is blocking him in the OF.
There is little reason to assume that Sizemore won’t be able to handle ML pitching. His main setback is his ankle right now.
And I also think Nunez will need more time in the minors to develop. He’ll spend 2010 in AA and will likely need a year in AAA before making his ML debut.
I see Guillen getting traded next off-season with the Tigers maybe having to eat a portion of the contract. While I don’t think Strieby will be anything more than an average defender his bat is far superior to that of Ramirez and Wells and can be hid more in right field than the massive left field in Comerica. I know he is not ranked highly in prospect rankings, think he is a going to be above average with the bat .You may be right about Nunez needing more seasoning but will wait and see how he produces this year. Would love to see Sizemore succeed and think he will hit enough but not sold on his glove at d. Hope Im wrong. Think Aki Iwamora would be a nice signing on a two year $10 million deal to bat in 2 hole if Sizemore doesn’t make it as a regular.
I think it’ll be very difficult for the Tigers to trade Guillen, even when eating a portion of his contract.
I don’t know what prospect rankings you’re looking at, but Strieby is considered one of the better hitting Tigers prospects. I just don’t see a fit in Detroit. That doesn’t mean I think he’s garbage. If the Tigers can package him plus Oliver for a 3B to replace Inge or a SS to replace Everett, than I say go for it.
I might be the biggest fan of Scott Sizemore, so I may be overrating him, but I see little doubt that he won’t succeed. Sure, his defense needs improving, but he’s gonna be something special.
Yeah trading Guillen will all depend on what kind of season he has this year. When I said rankings was pointing to Keith Law, Baseball America and MLB.com top 100 rankings which Strieby didn’t show up on. In my opinion probably should have come in somewhere around 75-85.
They already said Turner will not be fast tracked like Porcello. Dudes like what 18, maybe 19 right now? I know Tigers management has said he’s not as refined as Porcello was in high school or even right now at this point. He’s got a few years in the minors ahead of him.
Yeah they can say he won’t be fast-tracked but look at Dombrowski and Leyland’s track record. Leyland likes talent and has already been raving about Turner’s. Can’t see him making it through another spring training with out getting the nod. Maybe mid-season next year at the latest. It Turner can locate his fastball in the minors with consistency to go along with the best curveball in tigers system (Baseball America) will be tough for Leyland not to take him.
Willis was making the switch from NL to AL, they should have waited to see if he had what it takes to survive in the AL which he did not.
Also the Marlins would not compete in the AL with that payroll/team, no way they wuld make .500.
Where’s the speed? Good pitching, which the Tigers seem to be able to find and develop through the minors, deserves good defense. The station to station play of the past must change. Carl Crawford, Absolutely! Dunn, gimme a break! If they cant play the field, or go first to third on a single, DON’T SIGN THEM. Yes, they will have money, but if the players arent there, don’t sign crap for the sake of spending. Wait, and sign the Felipe Lopez’s of next year to low $, 1 year contracts. ( and please avoid Boros clients). Miggy will be our token plodder. Let Victor Martinez, and Adam Dunn masquarade at their positions for some other team.
I believe Guillen is owed $13 million in 2011. For third base, I am hoping the Tigers can sign Adrian Beltre as his option with the Red Sox is only for $5 million. There are some big name free agent shortstops listed but I don’t think they will actually reach free agency, as Rollins and Reyes both have options.