Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process.  It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023.  That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP.  Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed.  On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter.  It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars.  MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business.  And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core.  Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency.  That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however.  Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter.  Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market.  For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns.  Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors.  The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks.  The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup.  Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season.  The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth.  It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons.  Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster.  Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span.  Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.

Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup.  Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base.  Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end.  This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.

More from around the NL West…

• The Dodgers inquired about Jhoan Duran’s availability but couldn’t find a match with the Twins, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (links to X).  Unsurprisingly, Minnesota wanted a ton in exchange for a closer who is controlled through the 2027 season, and Hayes writes that the Twins are specifically looking for players who can help them win immediately.  Los Angeles, by contrast, was only interested in moving prospects rather than MLB-ready talent.  As it happened, the Dodgers did move one young player with big league experience as part of a larger trade to obtain relief pitching today, as Miguel Vargas and two prospects were sent to the White Sox as part of the three-team deal with the Sox and Cardinals that brought Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to Los Angeles.
• Before the Blue Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros earlier tonight, the Dodgers and Padres were among the teams showing interest in the left-hander, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Both NL West teams are known to be looking for starting pitching help, and it’s probably safe to assume that basically any club with rotation needs at least called the Jays about a clear trade candidate like Kikuchi.

That player, Patrick Bailey, now seems the organization’s long-term answer. He reached the big leagues last year and impressed defensively. Bailey rated as a high-end framer and cut down an excellent 28.4% of basestealers. His bat faded after a hot start, but he was impressive enough behind the dish to secure a seventh-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.

Bart, on the other hand, has not performed at the level expected of such a high draft choice. He has rated as a below-average defender by most public metrics. In 503 MLB plate appearances spread over the last four seasons, he’s hitting .219/.288/.335. Bart has hit 11 home runs but has punched out in over 35% of his trips to the plate.

As a result, he hasn’t secured a lasting spot on the MLB roster. He spent most of last year’s second half on optional assignment to Triple-A Sacramento. Bart’s .248/.357/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances at the top minor league level was below-average. Having turned 27 last month, he’s running out of opportunities to establish himself.

With Bailey having clearly surpassed Bart on the depth chart, the latter was floated as a trade candidate last winter and in advance of the ’23 deadline. San Francisco never found an offer to their liking and held him as minor league depth. That’s no longer possible. Last season was Bart’s final option year. The Giants can’t send him back to Triple-A without first exposing him to waivers.

They have three possibilities: carry him on the MLB roster, waive him, or trade him. It’s unlikely they’ll choose the first course of action. The Giants added Tom Murphy on a two-year, $8.25MM free agent deal to serve as Bailey’s backup. Last year’s Rule 5 selection Blake Sabol is still on the 40-man roster, although he can now be optioned to the minors (which isn’t possible for a Rule 5 pick in their rookie season). Bart is arguably fourth on the organizational hierarchy. Unless San Francisco plans to carry three catchers, he’s not going to make the team barring a spring injury to Bailey or Murphy.

While there’s some chance that his stock has fallen to the point that San Francisco could simply run him through waivers, they’d surely prefer to recoup something in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing. While this isn’t meant to be an exhaustive list, we’ll highlight a few teams that might consider Bart an upgrade over their current backup catcher.

• Brewers: Milwaukee lost Víctor Caratini to the Astros in free agency. They already have their franchise catcher in William Contreras but could consider a depth addition. Milwaukee signed Eric Haase to a big league free agent deal. He’s currently penciled in for the job, but he signed for just $1MM and is coming off a dismal .201/.247/.281 showing in 89 games between the Tigers and Guardians. Haase is already 31 and not a highly-regarded defensive catcher, so the Brewers probably aren’t firmly committed to him holding the backup job. Bart’s mediocre framing metrics might not be a huge concern for a team that has done an excellent job developing the receiving skills of Omar Narváez and Contreras in recent years.
• Diamondbacks: Arizona is going into camp with a competition for the backup job behind Gabriel Moreno. The Snakes have added Tucker Barnhart and former highly-regarded prospect Ronaldo Hernández on minor league deals. They’re trying to push José Herrera, who is on the 40-man roster but only carries a .198/.272/.231 slash line at the MLB level. Herrera has one more option year.
• Marlins: New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made one addition behind the plate, acquiring Christian Bethancourt in a cash trade with the Guardians. He joins Nick Fortes, who hit just .204/.263/.299 last season, as the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote last week the Fish would be content with a Bethancourt-Fortes tandem, but they could jump on an opportunity to add Bart for a minimal cost. Fortes still has two options remaining.
• Pirates: Pittsburgh lost presumptive starter Endy Rodríguez for the season thanks to an elbow injury suffered in winter ball. Former first overall pick Henry Davis should get the majority of the playing time behind the dish. Pittsburgh’s backup options are Ali Sánchez (who is out of options but signed a major league deal in December) and Jason Delay. The Bucs would probably have to waive Sánchez if they add Bart. The question is whether they prefer the former’s defensive stability over the latter’s potentially higher ceiling.
• Rays: Tampa Bay is going to do something at catcher. Waiving Bethancourt left them with defensive specialist René Pinto as the only backstop on their 40-man roster. Rob Brantly and Alex Jackson are in the organization as non-roster players. The Rays typically emphasize defense behind the dish, so perhaps they’re not enamored with Bart, but no one has a clearer ability to carry him on the MLB team.

While a mutual option is in place for the 2025 season, such options are almost never exercised by both parties, and the 28-year-old Kim seems like a lock to again hit the open market next winter now that he has an established MLB track record.  If the Padres don’t feel they can extend or re-sign the infielder, a trade remains a possibility, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that “internally, at least, San Diego has been discussing the idea for weeks.”

Whether or not a trade actually happens remains to be seen, as a Padres official told Lin that the return would need to be “way above the line” to get the club to actually move Kim.  In addition, Kim will also naturally be one of the centerpieces of the season-opening two-game series between the Padres and Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21, and Lin doubts that the Friars take the awkward position of moving a Korean star prior to the first MLB regular-season games to ever take place in South Korea.

That being said, adding multiple long-term assets for one year of Kim’s services is obviously a tempting concept for a Padres team that has a lot of needs to address.  Trading Kim would create a big hole in San Diego’s infield, though the team is still in dire need of outfielders and as many as two starting pitchers to slot behind Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and the newly-acquired Michael King.  The high cost of pitching would make signing a starter more expensive for the Padres than perhaps signing an infielder as a stopgap Kim replacement, plus top prospect Jackson Merrill could be part of the big league infield picture at some point in 2024.

Cost-cutting has been one of the major storylines of the San Diego offseason, and since the Padres seem to be stepping back from their financial splurges of the last couple of seasons, retaining Kim looks like less of a possibility.  The team is reportedly looking to reduce spending to around $200MM in payroll in 2024, and ideally get under the $237MM luxury tax threshold if possible.  After signing Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go to upgrade the bullpen, the Padres are projected (via Roster Resource) to have a $156.3MM payroll and a tax number of just under $212MM, so there isn’t a ton of flexibility for the team to add meaningful outfield and rotation help.

Kim is a big part of this financial picture, in the sense that he’s quite a bargain at only an $8MM salary.  Since Manny Machado might be limited to early-season DH duty while he recovers from elbow surgery, Kim carries even greater import within San Diego’s infield, as he might be needed to handle third base while Machado heals up.  Jake Cronenworth would likely move first base to second base in the event of a Kim trade, but that would then leave the Padres in need of a first baseman and at least a temporary replacement at the hot corner.

It isn’t a reach to suggest that Kim might be just about the most prized trade asset on the market if the Padres made him available, as Lin notes that the Friars have already drawn “widespread interest” in Kim from rival teams.  Though he primarily played second base last season, Kim won the NL utility Gold Glove for his all-around defensive work at second, third, and shortstop.  Considering how many contenders and would-be contenders have a need at at least one of these infield positions, up to half the league could be seen as plausible suitors to bid on Kim, even if some teams are better equipped than others to meet San Diego’s high asking price.

Kim’s $8MM salary might fit the budget of smaller-market teams like the Rays, Guardians, Pirates, or Royals, though perhaps only Tampa (who has a long history of trades with the Padres) is the only true World Series contender of that group that might be inspired to make an all-in move to land Kim.  The Brewers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Giants, Angels, Tigers, Cubs, and Marlins all have holes to fill in their infield, even if San Francisco might be less likely if San Diego doesn’t want to deal Kim within the NL West.  Clubs like the Twins, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies are more speculative candidates since another infielder probably would have to be moved to create space for Kim, but an aggressive play can’t be ruled out.

Though Kim is only under contract for 2024, some teams might view him as a longer-term opportunity if they feel they have a chance to extend or re-sign him next offseason.  Even if clubs could also see a Kim trade as strictly a move for the coming season, he is certainly a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, so a team could recoup a draft pick as compensation if he signed elsewhere.

While the club has recently indicated that it would be open to increasing payroll next season, it’s unclear to what level an increase would be. Even a substantial increase in payroll could leave the club looking to shave $20MM or more off of its payroll, to say nothing of any potential external additions the club could look into making as they aim to build on a 99-win season in 2024. Given these realities, it seems likely that the Rays will at least shop around some of the players from their deep pool of arbitration-level talent this offseason.

Of Tampa’s group of arbitration talent, just four players are projected to make more than $3MM next year: infielder Isaac Paredes, who is still just 24 years old and enjoyed a breakout season in 2023; right-hander Aaron Civale, the steady mid-rotation arm the club dealt top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to acquire this past summer; outfielder Randy Arozarena, a face of the franchise and former Rookie of the Year who made his first All Star appearance in 2023; and Harold Ramirez, a right-handed slugger the club acquired in a minor deal with the Cubs prior to the 2022 season who splits time between DH, first base, and the outfield corners.

Among that group of four, it seems wildly unlikely that the club would deal Civale after winning the bidding for his services just three months ago. Given his youth, positional versatility, and strong 2023 campaign, it seems more likely that the club would rather retain Paredes as a member of the club’s core rather than trade him away just as he enters his prime years.

While Arozarena may be the most expensive of the group by far with a $9MM projected salary in 2024, the 28-year-old outfielder is under team control through the end of the 2026 season and provides consistency to the Rays lineup. He’s made at least 600 trips to the plate, with a wRC+ of 120 or better, 20 home runs or more, and 20 stolen bases or more in each of the past three seasons. That consistency, power and speed makes Arozarena a key piece for the Rays going forward, to say nothing of his status as one of the most recognizable players on the team.

That leaves Ramirez, who has contributed to the Rays in a big way over the past two seasons. In 869 trips to the plate with the club over the past two seasons, Ramirez has slashed an impressive .306/.348/.432 with a 17.4% strikeout rate, good for a wRC+ of 123. Good as that production is, it’s worth noting Ramirez carries a hefty platoon split; while he was roughly league average against right-handers with a .281/.329/.420 slash line in 310 trips to the plate against them this year, he absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line in 124 trips to the plate. His career splits are roughly similar, with a .719 OPS against righties and an .816 OPS against southpaws.

Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be, the Rays are fortunate to be well-stocked in terms of DH and corner options. Yandy Diaz has locked down the first base spot with star-level production the past two seasons, while slugger Luke Raley made a strong impression during his first run of significant playing time this year, slashing .249/.333/.490 with 19 home runs in just 406 trips to the plate while covering first base, DH, and all three outfield spots. This also doesn’t consider young infield prospect Jonathan Aranda, who slashed .230/.340/.368 in 103 plate appearances with the big league club this year and could play his way into a bigger role next season.

Additionally, each of those options has more team control remaining than Ramirez. While the 29-year-old will be a free agent following the 2025 season, Diaz is under control through 2026, Raley through 2028, while Aranda has yet to accrue a full season of service time in the big leagues. Given the club’s bountiful options at the position and Ramirez’s relative lack of team control, he could be the perfect trade candidate for a Rays team interested in lowering payroll to make other additions or even simply in leveraging a valuable asset from a clear area of depth.

In terms of potential suitors, there are several teams that could conceivably be interested in Ramirez’s services. The Brewers and Cubs both have uncertain first base situations headed into 2024, with Rowdy Tellez looking like a potential non-tender candidate and Matt Mervis having struggled through his first cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year. The Cubs, of course, are the club the Rays acquired Ramirez from prior to his breakout in the spring of 2022.

Meanwhile, the Padres could look to add a right-handed complement to Matt Carpenter at DH, with Ramirez as a strong option to fill the role the club hoped Nelson Cruz could fill in 2023. The Diamondbacks and Braves could also find themselves in search of a bat like Ramirez this offseason, in the event Tommy Pham and Eddie Rosario depart the club this offseason. In truth, there’s few aspiring contenders that couldn’t make use of a lefty-mashing corner bat with two seasons of team control remaining, giving the Rays plenty of potential paths in the event they do pursue a trade of the 29-year-old.

The hit rate on deals of this nature isn’t particularly high. Most players don’t rebound as hoped. Wil Myers was designated for assignment by the Reds. Pierce Johnson hasn’t panned out for the Rockies. Ditto for Trevor May in Oakland and Corey Dickerson and Dominic Smith in Washington. The Nationals will happily live with a couple misses in exchange for one notable hit, and they found it in third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

Candelario looked like a potential building block for the Tigers a few seasons ago. He led MLB in doubles two seasons back and combined to hit .278/.356/.458 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-21. Even with generally middling defensive marks, he was a productive regular based on his well-rounded profile at the plate.

Things cratered for him last season. Candelario managed only a .217/.273/.361 slash over 467 trips to the dish. His walks fell to a career-worst level as he chased more pitches outside the strike zone. The contact quality similarly regressed sharply. It was essentially a replacement-level season overall. The entire Tigers lineup was a disaster, leading to a front office change in August. New baseball operations leader Scott Harris and his staff moved on from Candelario, declining to tender him an arbitration contract projected in the $7MM range.

That sent him to free agency for the first time. Washington stepped in with a one-year, $5MM guarantee that contained $1MM in additional incentives ($200K for reaching 200 plate appearances and $100K thereafter for each 100 trips to the plate, maxing out at 600). Carter Kieboom opening the season on the injured list ensured Candelario would get regular run at the hot corner in the early going.

He has seized the opportunity with a performance essentially in line with his 2020-21 production. Candelario has a .263/.338/.471 line with 10 home runs over 325 plate appearances. He’s tied for second in MLB with 26 doubles. Candelario has dialed the approach back in, cut down slightly on the swing-and-miss, and pushed his exit velocities back up a couple ticks.

Candelario has paired that with better than expected defensive grades. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have pegged him between three and five runs better than average over 662 1/3 innings of third base work. It’s the first time since 2020 in which he has rated as an above-average defender. Single-season defensive metrics can be variable, but Candelario looks to be a capable gloveman at the hot corner, even if he’s unlikely to win a Gold Glove.

Nothing in his offensive production is dramatically out of line with his best years in Detroit. In a broad sense, he just seems to have put last year’s awful season behind him. There is one notable change from Candelario’s early-career production, though: the platoon splits.

For his career, he’d generally been better from the right side of the dish. Candelario entered this season with an overall .270/.329/.438 batting line against southpaws compared to a .230/.320/.388 showing versus right-handed pitching. The script has flipped this year. Candelario has a .279/.350/.537 line against righties and is hitting only .227/.313/.318 off left-handers.

That probably won’t change front offices’ opinions on him too much. This year’s platoon splits are very small samples; he has only 99 plate appearances against southpaws. He’s probably not going to keep teeing off on right-handers at quite this level and he’ll presumably see his production against lefties pick back up. He’s not the cleanest fit for a team seeking a strict platoon bat, but he’s shown enough from both sides of the plate throughout his career he’d be a fine plug-and-play regular at the hot corner.

It seems very likely he’ll be donning a new uniform five weeks from now. He surpasses the six-year service threshold this season and is headed back to the open market next winter. Candelario has played well enough the Nats could at least consider a qualifying offer if they held onto him. There’d be a strong chance he accepts, though, which would keep him in Washington for another season at a salary around four times greater than this year’s figure.

It’s hard to envision Candelario having more trade value for Washington than he does right now. Not only is he affordable and productive, this year’s market for offense could be very thin. The upcoming free agent class is extremely light on position players, reducing the number of productive rental bats available. That’s especially true on the infield. The Blue Jays almost certainly won’t trade Matt Chapman, positioning Candelario as the top impending free agent infielder who’s likely to be on the trade market.

Teams like the Marlins, Phillies, Cubs (where Candelario began his career) and Diamondbacks haven’t gotten much production out of third base. The Astros have Alex Bregman at the hot corner but are looking for another bat, preferably one who can hit from the left side. Candelario could factor in at first base or designated hitter in that scenario. The Brewers have some uncertainty at both corner infield spots.

If Candelario finishes the season strong, he should be able to leverage that infield scarcity into a solid multi-year free agent deal. A trade would kill any possibility of him being saddled with draft pick compensation — players moved midseason cannot receive a qualifying offer — and he’ll hit the market at age 30. A three or maybe even four-year deal with annual salaries north of $10MM doesn’t seem out of the question.

Candelario’s stint in Washington will probably be brief, but it’s shaping up exactly as intended for both parties. The Nats look positioned to add a couple mid-level prospects to their farm system, while Candelario is parlaying his opportunity into a much more lucrative free agency trip.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

With all their star players out the door, Oakland has mostly completed its sell-off. They’re now integrating a number of younger, pre-arbitration players onto a roster that again figures to be one of the worst in the American League in 2023. The A’s are looking a few years down the road, and it stands to reason they’d therefore be open to moving virtually any player on the roster with an established major league track record.

Ramón Laureano may be their highest-upside trade candidate, but he’s coming off a rough season that’s a year removed from a performance-enhancing drug suspension. It’s probably best to let him try to rebuild his stock with an eye towards a deadline deal. There’s another outfielder whom general manager David Forst could consider more of a sell-high possibility: Seth Brown.

A former 19th-round pick, Brown was never regarded as an especially notable prospect. He didn’t reach the majors until after his 27th birthday late in the 2019 season. Brown barely played at the MLB level his first couple years, not topping 26 MLB games in a season until 2021. He picked up 307 plate appearances that year, connecting on 20 home runs but only reaching base at a .274 clip.

Last season, the Lewis-Clark State College product got his first real run as an everyday player. He suited up 150 times and tallied 555 trips to the plate. Brown hit .230/.305/.444 with 25 homers. His on-base percentage, while a bit below the .312 league mark, wasn’t at the untenable clip of the previous season. He cut his strikeout rate from 29% to a more manageable 26.3% while boosting his walk percentage to a solid 9.2% clip. Brown still doesn’t have a great plate discipline profile, but those numbers are sufficient for a player with his power. His slugging mark was nearly .050 points above the league average despite playing half his games at Oakland’s spacious ballpark.

Virtually all of those gains came as part of a torrid second half. Brown carried a .216/.269/.396 line into the All-Star Break. After the Midsummer Classic, he posted a .249/.348/.507 showing over 250 plate appearances. He more than doubled his walk rate from 6.2% to 12.8% and collected 15 longballs in the second half.  He finished tied for 11th in the majors in homers after the Break, while his 147 wRC+ during that time (indicating overall offensive production 47 percentage points above the league average) checked in 27th among those with at least 150 plate appearances.

As with any relatively small-sample performance of that nature, it’s probably fair to assume Brown won’t maintain that pace. He doesn’t need to be a top 30 hitter in the league to be valuable, though, and it’s clear he has legitimate power upside. He’s now picked up 45 homers in a bit less than 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In both years, he’s put up a hard contact rate north of 40% — around five points higher than the league mark.

Even with some likely regression from his late-season tear, Brown at least profiles as a quality power bat for the strong side of a platoon. For his career, the left-handed hitter owns a .239/.309/.482 line against right-handed pitching. He’s managed only a .172/.230/.297 mark against southpaws and would probably be shielded from looks against tough lefty arms if he were to land with a contender.

A decent runner, Brown also stole 11 bases in 13 attempts last season. The A’s even gave him some late-season work in center field, though he struggled significantly there. Public metrics suggest he’s a more viable defender in the corner outfield and at first base. The bat will have to carry the profile, but Brown has enough athleticism he could factor in at a few of the lower-value positions on the defensive spectrum.

There haven’t been any indications Brown’s name has come up in trade talks between Oakland and other clubs thus far. Unlike most of the players the A’s have shipped off in recent seasons, they have no payroll motivation to deal Brown. He’ll play this season for little more than the league minimum salary and is eligible for arbitration three more times after that. Trading him wouldn’t be about saving money but the opportunity to potentially recoup a mid-level prospect or two for a player whose trade value may be at its peak. While he’s controllable for the foreseeable future, Brown is already 30 and presumably not seen as a core long-term organizational piece for a rebuilding club.

A productive lefty platoon bat to rotate through the corner outfield and first base should have more appeal to an immediate contender, particularly since Brown’s affordability means he’d fit on the books anywhere. Teams like the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers all have some amount of uncertainty at either first base or in the outfield. Tampa Bay and New York stand out as particularly strong speculative fits considering their lineups tend to skew right-handed. Brown wouldn’t be a franchise-altering addition, but he should be of interest to a number of teams as they build out their roster depth with free agency mostly finished.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Whether Reynolds gets dealt is one of the bigger remaining storylines of the offseason, but he’s certainly not the only player on the Pittsburgh roster who could attract attention. The Bucs have stockpiled a number of veterans on one-year commitments — Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges among them — who could be midseason trade candidates. Star closer David Bednar would have a ton of appeal in the unlikely event the Pirates made him available. One player who has seemingly flown under the radar in rumors is JT Brubaker, but he seems the most plausible trade candidate in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

At first glance, it looks obvious why Brubaker hasn’t been the subject of much public trade speculation. He has pitched in three big league seasons and has a 4.99 ERA through 315 2/3 innings. The righty hasn’t posted an ERA better than this past season’s 4.69 mark in any of those years. Despite pitching his home games in a very favorable park, Brubaker hasn’t managed to keep runs off the board consistently. He’s not going to be a primary target for a win-now club that feels they’re a starter away from contention.

That said, teams will obviously look beyond a pitcher’s ERA in evaluating that player, and Brubaker has shown more promise than one might surmise with a cursory glance at his Baseball Reference page. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have viewed the Akron product more favorably than his ERA would suggest in all three of his big league campaigns. That’s a reflection of strikeout and walk numbers that’d look right in line with what one would expect from their fourth starter.

Brubaker has struck out 23-24% of opponents in all three seasons, while he’s kept his walk percentage in the 7-8% range. Over 144 innings in 2022, the former sixth-round draftee put up a 22.8% strikeout rate that was narrowly better than the 21.6% league average for starters. He walked 8.4% of batters faced, slightly higher than the 7.5% league mark. On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Brubaker also fared reasonably. He generated swinging strikes on 11.8% of his offerings, right in line with the rate from his prior two seasons. That’s a tick better than the 10.7% league figure.

It’s a fairly similar story from a batted ball perspective. Brubaker’s 44% grounder rate is fine, marginally better than par. Even his pitches themselves seem almost exactly average. His sinker checked in at 93.1 MPH this past season, which is middle-of-the-pack. Brubaker’s mid-80s slider is the highlight of his arsenal, a quality swing-and-miss pitch he uses with frequency against same-handed hitters. That’s his go-to offering once he gets ahead in the count against righties, and it has been effective at finishing off opponents when he needs a strikeout.

While Brubaker’s strikeout/walk profile is solid, his run prevention has yet to match up. That’s not entirely poor luck, as he’s given up a decent amount of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have given him real trouble, which isn’t especially surprising for a sinker-slider specialist who doesn’t regularly feature a changeup in his arsenal. Brubaker doesn’t have a great weapon to stay off barrels against lefty hitters, and they hit him hard in 2022. Over 298 plate appearances, opposing southpaws put a .269/.339/.481 line. While Brubaker induced grounders on over half his batted balls against right-handed opponents, lefties got the ball in the air roughly 65% of the time. Despite facing 50 more right-handed hitters on the season, he allowed three more homers to left-handed batters.

That’s a legitimate concern, and that contact profile partially explains the gap between his 4.99 career ERA and the more favorable marks from FIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.04). Without finding a better weapon against lefties, he’ll probably underperform those estimators to some extent. That said, he’s likely due for some positive regression, even if it’s not all the way to the 4.04 mark SIERA would suggest. Brubaker finished in the bottom 20 starters in left-on-base rate this year, and more favorable sequencing of the baserunners he allows should naturally improve his ERA. If another team feels confident in their ability to tinker with his repertoire or improve his changeup to better handle southpaws, they could eye him as an interesting change-of-scenery play.

To be clear, Brubaker isn’t going to come anywhere close to attracting the attention Reynolds or Bednar would on the trade market. Yet there’s some appeal for clubs in securing average to slightly below-average innings at little financial cost. The market for mid-tier starting pitchers has been extremely strong. Players like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon secured four-year deals with underlying marks not much better than Brubaker’s. Brubaker wouldn’t have commanded that kind of outlay as a free agent given his platoon/hard contact issues. Yet one could argue he’s better than Kyle Gibson, who landed a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles for his age-35 season, or Jordan Lyles, who has agreed to terms on a two-year, $17MM pact with the Royals.

Brubaker turned 29 in November, and he’s controllable for three more seasons. Entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an even $2MM salary. He’s affordable enough for any team, and while that includes the Pirates, they don’t seem likely to take an arbitration-eligible starter off the table as they continue their rebuild. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington and his staff don’t need to make a deal, but Brubaker’s not the type of player they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain relinquishing.

The free agent rotation market has gained plenty of steam the past few weeks. There hasn’t been any movement on the trade front for starting pitching, although that figures to pick up with the number of free agent hurlers dwindling. Brubaker wouldn’t be as exciting an addition as landing Pablo López or Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, but he should be on teams’ radars as a fallback target later in the winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are different kinds of possible trade candidates, as their status isn’t tied to their salaries.  Both pitchers have just reached arbitration eligibility, with Plesac projected for a $2.9MM salary and Civale for $2.2MM in 2023.  These modest starting points mean that even if Plesac or Civale have a pair of excellent seasons in 2023 and 2024, their salaries over his three remaining years of team control should still be manageable even for a cost-conscious organization like the Guardians.

On paper, these are the kinds of pitchers the Guards would seemingly want to hang onto as rotation depth, given their arb control and the decent track records that both hurlers have posted over their four MLB seasons.  The two even have rather similar career numbers, though Plesac has 445 1/3 innings pitched to Civale’s 353 frames.  However, the Guardians are one of the few teams who might have starting pitching depth to spare, and with Plesac and Civale sitting at the back of the rotation, at least one might be expendable enough to move for other roster needs.

Which is the more expendable of the duo?  As noted, their resumes bear a lot of similarities, plus both right-handers are 27 years old (Plesac is about five months older).  The innings gap is perhaps the most notable difference, and though Civale has been the less durable of the two, he might have the more upside.

Civale had a 60-day injured list stint in 2021 due to a sprained middle finger on his right hand.  This limited him to 124 1/3 innings, and that number then dropped to 97 innings last year due to three separate 15-day IL visits.  A wrist sprain, glute strain, and forearm inflammation all kept Civale off the mound, and the bigger-picture concern of the forearm problem dissipated when Civale was able to return after only a minimal absence.  These injuries contributed to a 4.92 ERA for Civale, even if his 3.55 SIERA presented a much more favorable view of his performance.

Civale had an excellent 5.4% walk rate, and above-average strikeout and chase rates.  With a fastball that averaged only 91.2mph, Civale relied on his curveball and sinker, and his spin rates (on his heater and his curve) were among the best in baseball.  Unfortunately, Civale was hit hard in his lone postseason appearance, allowing three runs while only retiring one batter as the Game 5 starter in the ALDS.  This put Cleveland in an early hole that it couldn’t escape, as the Yankees eliminated the Guards from the playoffs.

Plesac posted a 4.31 ERA/4.46 SIERA over 131 2/3 innings in 2022, with an above-average 6.7% walk rate but not much else in the way of secondary metrics.  The right-hander also isn’t a particularly hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats (18.7% career strikeout rate).  In fact, Plesac has posted some of the lower strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons, also sitting near the back of the pack in barrels, barrel rate, and hard-hit ball rate overall.  With a career .265 BABIP, Plesac has gotten some help from the Guardians’ strong defense in limiting the damage from all that hard contact.

While Plesac has been healthier than Civale, Plesac has also spent some time on the IL over the last two seasons, which brings us to the other X-factor in this discussion of trade candidates.  Only those inside the Guardians clubhouse and front office would know the truth of the matter, but there have been some rumblings that Plesac may have worn out his welcome in Cleveland due to concerns about his maturity level.

On the injury front, Plesac didn’t pitch in September of this season due to a fractured pinkie finger in his throwing hand, as Plesac reportedly hurt himself punching the mound in anger over allowing a homer to Seattle’s Jake Lamb on August 27.  He also missed a little over six weeks in 2021 due to a right thumb fracture, which occurred while Plesac was “rather aggressively taking off his undershirt,” in the memorable words of manager Terry Francona.  This made it two temper-related injuries in as many years for Plesac, and that followed his most well-publicized controversy during the shortened 2020 season.

In August of that year, Plesac and Clevinger violated league COVID-19 protocols by leaving the team hotel for a night out in Chicago.  The two pitchers were subsequently placed on the team’s restricted list and then sent to the alternate training site that was served as a de facto minor league camp during the pandemic season.  Plesac was eventually recalled back to the big league roster at the end of August, while the situation was one of the factors in Cleveland’s decision to deal Clevinger to San Diego.

The pitchers’ actions were very poorly received within the clubhouse, as multiple teammates were angered both by their lack of honesty about their actions as well as the health risk created by the protocol violation.  As well, Plesac attempted to defend himself in an Instagram video by claiming the media had overblown the situation, and that ill-advised video also didn’t sit well with teammates.

This incident occurred over two years ago, and to reiterate, it isn’t known if any hard feelings still exist towards Plesac within the Guardians clubhouse.  It may help Plesac that many members of that 2020 roster are no longer with the team, and he is now actually one of the longer-tenured players on a very young Cleveland team.  Still, if weighing which of Civale or Plesac to move in a trade, this past situation might still be a consideration in the front office’s mind.

Prior to the trade deadline, reports suggested that the Guards were open to offers for controllable pitchers, at least as a matter of due diligence.  This immediately sparked a plethora of Shane Bieber rumors, but it doesn’t really seem like a Bieber deal is on Cleveland’s radar in the near future (Steve Adams recently addressed the possibility of a Bieber deal in a piece for MLBTR subscribers).  Triston McKenzie had a breakout year and is controlled through 2026, and Cal Quantrill is another 27-year-old pitcher in his first year of arb-eligibility.  While Quantrill’s projected $6MM salary is significantly higher than Plesac or Civale, Quantrill has also done more to establish himself as a reliable arm.  Cleveland turned to Quantrill for two postseason starts, while Civale and Plesac were both somewhat reduced to afterthought status in the playoffs.

Konnor Pilkington made 11 starts for the Guardians last season, and Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and Cody Morris were among the other young starters who made their Major League debuts last season.  Daniel Espino is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and seems ready to make his debut at some point in 2023.  Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are also top-100 prospects who could be late-season callups, and there are other pitchers within Cleveland’s upper tier of arms that might factor into their 2023 plans.  There is enough depth and potential here that the Guards might feel like they can readily replace Civale’s 1.3 fWAR or Plesac’s 0.9 fWAR from the 2022 season.

That said, quite a few teams would happily take Civale or Plesac’s contributions in their rotations.  Either pitcher could be seen as a change-of-scenery or even a buy-low candidate, though the three seasons of arbitration control would still allow Cleveland to ask for an interesting return.  The Phillies reportedly checked in on Plesac in July, and purely speculatively, Civale or Plesac might have particular appeal to ex-Cleveland staffers now working for other teams.  Former Guardians assistant GM Carter Hawkins might want to reunite with either pitcher now that Hawkins is the Cubs’ general manager, or former Cleveland assistant director of pitching development Matt Blake might feel he can get either right-hander on track in his current role as the Yankees’ pitching coach.

As always, the “you can never have too much pitching” credo must be mentioned, as the Guardians aren’t under any real pressure to move any of their arms.  A strong rotation is such a backbone of the Guards’ team, in fact, that they might even be a little less willing to deal from their surplus just in case the younger pitchers aren’t ready to contribute to a contending team.  Still, teams in need of pitching will unquestionably be sending a lot of offers in Cleveland’s direction, and Civale and Plesac might be the two most logical names to be dangled.

On the heels of such a productive season, Tellez will garner some trade interest. Predicted to earn only $5.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, Tellez projects as an affordable option in a thin first base market (recently analyzed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Besides José Abreu, Josh Bell, potentially Anthony Rizzo if he executes his opt-out, and a few veterans coming off down years, there are few first basemen available that provide power similar to Tellez.

As for the Brewers, while they do not currently have any top prospects at first base, ranked by MLB.com, former Brewers’ top prospect Keston Hiura does not have a clear starting spot. Willy Adames and Luis Urías are penciled in as the starting shortstop and third baseman, respectively, and Kolten Wong is patrolling Hiura’s natural position, second base, with prospect Brice Turang waiting in the wings if the Brewers decline Wong’s club option this offseason. With a crowded infield, the Brewers may be forced with the tough call of starting Hiura, who hit .226/.316/.449 in 80 games last season, and trading Tellez, or potentially moving on from Hiura due to the logjam.

If the Brewers decide to trade Tellez, some teams that might be interested in the slugger include the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

The Astros relied on Yuli Gurriel to hold down first base during the 2022 season, but the 38-year-old, who will turn 39 during the 2023 season, showed signs of decline, hitting a meager .242/.288/.360 in 146 games. It’s a far cry from the strong .319/.383/.462 line the righty posted in the 2021 season, and more akin to his weaker, pandemic-shortened 2020 showing in which he hit .232/.274/.384 in 57 games. Internally, the Astros have Yainer Díaz and Joe Perez as potential heirs to Gurriel. Both players made their MLB debut in 2022, but neither progressed through the minor league system as first basemen. Díaz, who hit .294/.343/.587 in Triple-A Sugar Land this past season split time at catcher and first, after beginning his minor league career as a catcher. Perez spent time at the other corner infield position, third base, but is blocked by All-Star Alex Bregman. Perez spent the majority of the 2022 season at Doble-A Corpus Christi where he slashed .265/.355/.397 in 64 games.

The Giants primarily used a combination of Brandon Belt and Wilmer Flores at first base this past season. The lefty Belt hit an underwhelming .213/.326/.350 and underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee while the righty Flores hit a slightly stronger .229/.316/.394. With Belt a free agent, the Giants could trade for Tellez to platoon with utility man Wilmer Flores. However, the Giants may opt to bring back Belt in hopes of a rebound season after he slashed an impressive .274/.378/.597 during the 2021 season.

Taylor has never really done too much with his bat, finishing the 2021 season with a career batting line of .239/.293/.386 for a wRC+ of just 79. But the Royals were surely motivated to lock him up because of his tremendous defense. Taylor ended up finishing first among MLB center fielders in the Fielding Bible’s voting for 2021. His 15 Outs Above Average last year were the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Manuel Margot’s 16. His 19 Defensive Runs Saved were also second in the league, trailing only the 20 racked up by Carlos Correa. His 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was easily the best, well ahead of Matt Chapman’s 8.7.

Kansas City making defense a priority made sense for a couple of reasons. First, the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium make it so that defense is always important for the team. Secondly, the rebuilding club was set to feature a number of young and inexperienced pitchers, making any extra outs very important for building confidence and limiting workloads.

However, Taylor has bucked his career trends in a couple of ways here in 2022. For one thing, he’s having easily the best year of his career in terms of his bat. Through 47 games, he’s got an 11.2% walk rate, a great improvement over his 7% career mark. Similarly, he’s striking out in 22.4% of his plate appearances, well below his 29.9% career rate. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .272/.355/.401, which amounts to a wRC+ of 119. Prior to this year, Taylor’s wRC+ has been 80 or below in every season except for a 104 back in 2017.

But on the other hand, his defense doesn’t seem to be quite as elite as last year, at least in the eyes of the advanced metrics. OAA currently has him at 1 for the season, DRS at 3 and UZR at -0.2. Defensive metrics are notoriously fickle, meaning it’s possible that this is just small sample noise. Though Taylor is also 31 years old now, making it possible that 2021 was a peak that he’s started to come down from.

The Royals have a record of 23-42, one of the worst in the league, lining them up to be clear sellers at this year’s trade deadline. Taylor doesn’t absolutely have to be traded since his contract goes through 2023. The Royals could keep him around for another year and hope that they have better luck next year in their attempts to transition from rebuilding to contending. But there’s also an argument to be made that Taylor’s value is at its peak. He’s never been hitting anywhere near this level before and there’s a chance his excellent defensive skills have started to wane.

There’s also the possibility that two months of improved results with the bat won’t compel any team to part with significant prospects that would entice the Royals to pull a trigger on a trade. But then again, teams in search of help in center field don’t have a lot of options. Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds have been constantly in trade rumors over the past year, but their respective teams have apparently been steadfast in maintaining high asking prices in any trade discussions. The Marlins have reportedly been making a strong push for Ramon Laureano, but without successfully getting the A’s to budge thus far. There aren’t many options beyond that group that are both exciting and available.

Coupled with that low supply is strong demand. The Marlins have been trying to upgrade in center field for a long time but without finding a deal to their liking. The Brewers just cut ties with Lorenzo Cain, leaving them with Tyrone Taylor and Jonathan Davis as their center field tandem. Cody Bellinger has rebounded from his nightmare 2021 but is still having a below-average season at the plate. The Astros and Phillies are getting okay results this year from Chas McCormick and Odubel Herrera, respectively, but could still look to supplement there. Perhaps the Yankees will look to bump Aaron Judge back into a corner outfield role to reduce his daily wear and tear. There’s also the possibility some team that doesn’t strictly need a center fielder just wants one to give their regular outfielders some occasional down time.

The Royals will have a decision to make between now and the August 2 trade deadline. Do they hang onto Taylor for another year or try to cash him in for some prospects while his value is high? Even if they lean towards the former option, it’s possible that the market forces push some team into making them an offer that makes them change their mind.

Drafted by Atlanta in the 13th round in 2010, Drury was sent to the Diamondbacks as a prospect, as part of the deal that sent Justin Upton the other way. He made his big league debut with Arizona in 2015 and showed some promise over his first few seasons. From 2015-2017 with the Snakes, he got into 289 games and hit 31 home runs, slashing .271/.319/.448. That wasn’t elite production, with his wRC+ actually coming in slightly below average at 95, but still encouraging for a player in his age 22-24 seasons. He also provided the Diamondbacks with defensive versatility, as he spent time at every infield position and the outfield corners.

There was enough there to intrigue the Yankees, who acquired Drury prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately for them, this was the beginning of what would end up being a miserable three-year stretch for him. Drury dealt with blurred vision and migraines, which caused him to miss time and struggle to the point that the Yankees optioned him to the minors. While he hit well on the farm, he struggled mightily in the majors, hitting .176/.263/.275 in 18 games with the Yanks.

Despite those struggles, the Blue Jays decided to take a chance on him, acquiring him from the Yankees in the J.A. Happ trade, ending Drury’s time with the Yanks after just a few months. After just eight games with the Canadian birds, Drury faced another setback, breaking his hand and heading to the injured list again. In 2019, Drury was able to stay healthy but still struggled, hitting .218/.262/.380 for a 66 wRC+ in 120 games. In 2020, the struggles got even worse, with Drury hitting .152/.184/.174 in 21 games, producing a wRC+ of -10 and getting designated for assignment toward the end of the season.

Despite that abysmal three-year stretch, the Mets decided to take a flier on him, signing him to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 campaign. After the big league club suffered a pile of injuries to their position player mix, they called on Drury in May, who was having a nice showing in Triple-A. He would end up holding himself well in a utility role, playing 51 games while taking the field at first, second and third base, as well as the outfield corners. He hit .274/.307/.476 for a wRC+ of 114 in 88 plate appearances. Despite that solid showing, he was designated for assignment as the season was winding down in October.

A similar situation played out for Drury this year, as he signed a minor league deal with the Reds in March. A slew of injuries created a need for Drury, who has taken the opportunity and ran with it. He’s now played 53 games with the Reds, just beyond his total with the Mets last year. However, it’s clearly been a full-time role this time around, as his 218 plate appearances more than double his 88 from last year. In that time, he’s hit 12 home runs, a number bested by only 12 other National League hitters this year. His overall slash is .269/.335/.508 for a wRC+ of 129. He’s already produced 1.4 wins above replacement this year, according to FanGraphs, with almost two-thirds of the season still remaining. This doesn’t seem to just be good luck either, as his .297 BABIP on the year is just barely ahead of his .294 career mark, and his Statcast page has plenty of those healthy red hues. Defensively, Drury has largely played second and third, helping the club cover for extended absences from Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas, though he’s also made cameos at shortstop and first base.

Taking all of this into consideration, Drury’s true nature is very difficult to peg. A pessimist could point to his dismal stretch from 2018-2020 and dismiss this year’s showing as a small-sample hot streak. He’s also a mere rental, as he began this season with 5 years and one day of service time. Since he cracked Cincy’s Opening Day roster, he will just barely eclipse six years at the end of this season. But on the other hand, he showed enough promise earlier in his career for three different teams to trade for him, clearly demonstrating that this breakout was considered possible in the past. Now he’s delivering on that promise and should hold plenty of appeal to competing teams, especially those with budgetary constraints. The financials of Drury’s deal weren’t reported at the time, though his Baseball Reference page lists his salary as the $700K league minimum.

What Drury also has going for him as a trade candidate is his versatility. Since he can play multiple infield spots, there are potentially many teams who could fit him into their plans. The Angels have gotten very little out of their middle infield this year and could slot Drury in at second base. Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia have both struggled mightily, leaving the White Sox with the keystone as an obvious area to upgrade. The Dodgers love adding underrated bench players and have watched Justin Turner slouch through most of the season so far. Alec Bohm is still struggling in Philly, and since they’ve gone over the luxury tax for the first time, Drury’s low salary could be extra appealing to them. It’s also possible that an injury to an infielder creates a need on a team that didn’t previously have one, like when this week’s Ozzie Albies injury suddenly created a huge hole at second base in Atlanta. Though one team that almost certainly won’t be in the mix is the Blue Jays, as Drury is apparently unvaccinated and isn’t eligible to cross the border. Drury won’t complete remake any of these teams on his own, but role players like this can sometimes have huge impacts. Last year’s marquee deadline trade sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, but the Braves won the World Series after acquiring lesser-known players like Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario.

Even if Drury does garner interest at the deadline, it likely won’t lead to a massive return. Strong season aside, he’s got enough warts on his resume to prevent acquiring teams from shelling out any kind elite prospect package. Still, for the Reds to get any kind of trade return out of a player who signed a minor league deal when Spring Training was already underway, that’s one nice development in a season that hasn’t had too many.

Marte is already under contract for the below-market sum of $8.4MM for 2022, with the Dbacks holding team options for 2023 and 2024 at $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Obviously, those numbers come in far shy the $25MMper annum he would theoretically earn in his age 31-33 seasons under the terms reported by Heyman. And yet, it’s still a number that could be considered a discount, given Marte’s proven ceiling.

Marte has been floated as a potential trade candidate for much of the offseason, but his value has been somewhat difficult to peg because he’s so eminently affordable for the next three campaigns thanks to the extension he signed in March 2018. At the time that he signed the deal, Marte had not yet entered his arbitration seasons, and he’d already been dealt once in what turned out to be one of the more interesting swaps of the past decade. In the deal, Arizona acquired righty Taijuan Walker with the 23-year-old Marte in exchange for an unproven Mitch Haniger, a post-breakout Jean Segura, and southpaw Zac Curtis. Notably, it was one of the very first moves of GM Mike Hazen’s tenure in Arizona.

Though Marte was a high-end prospect, Walker was viewed as the real get at the time. Marte had yet to fully establish himself over parts of two seasons with the Mariners. His extension, then, came after just one additional year with the Diamondbacks, one in which the switch-hitter managed only 255 plate appearances. Marte’s career triple-slash line was just .265/.319/.361 (84 wRC+) with eight homers and 22 steals over his first 968 major league PAs. And yet, Hazen didn’t blink in locking him up for the next seven years.

Hazen’s prescience paid off as Marte broke out in a big way during the 2019 season, finishing fourth in MVP voting. Marte absolutely leveled up to a .329/.389/.592 line over 628 plate appearances, chipping in 36 doubles, nine triples, and 32 home runs, good for 6.9 rWAR/7.0 fWAR. After taking a step back in 2020, Marte posted a reasonable facsimile of his breakout campaign last year with a 139 wRC+, but he was only able to stay on the field for 90 games.

An extension now would be an interesting gambit for the Diamondbacks, considering the injuries that have followed Marte throughout his career. And while he’s a multi-positional standout – and somewhat of an oddity in that he has more-or-less split his career playing time between second base, shortstop, and centerfield – his glovework has largely earned subpar marks everywhere on the diamond except the keystone.

Add to the total picture Marte’s tremendous, if surprising offensive ceiling, and he’s not a player that takes easily to projections. One could argue that the Diamondbacks would be better off waiting on extending Marte to see if he can produce another full season like 2019, given that he’s already under team control for three more seasons. By the time a new extension would kick in, Marte would be on the other side of his prime.

Perhaps they want to put an end to any trade rumblings and commit to Marte as a centerpiece of their offense for the next half decade. Hazen’s been right about Marte twice before, so the pair are probably due the benefit of the doubt.

Besides, Arizona’s future payroll is totally clear. They have nobody currently on the books for after the 2024 season, when Marte’s current contract runs out.

When he’s right, Marte brings a plus ability to put the ball in play, above-average power, above-average speed, and enough positional versatility to be an asset, at least in a game-to-game basis. It’s easy to understand why the Diamondbacks would want him at the forefront of their future endeavors.

In his absence, center field was largely manned by Grichuk, who spent parts of 96 games there, including 87 starts. Unfortunately, he had arguably the worst season of his career. He’s never been an on-base guy, with a 6.3% walk rate back in 2015 marking his career high. But he slipped even lower in 2021, landing at 5.0%, his lowest since his debut season in 2014. On the positive side, he dropped his strikeout rate to 20.9%, a career best. He also still showed some power by hitting 22 home runs. His center field defense was passable, being rated as just below average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. But in the end, his line for the season was .241/.281/.423. His wRC+ of 85 was five points lower than his previous career low, and his 0.4 fWAR was his lowest since his 47-game debut in 2014.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Blue Jays and Brewers had discussions on a trade centered around Grichuk and Jackie Bradley Jr.,  before the Brewers and Red Sox agreed to a deal with a framework of Bradley and Hunter Renfroe. This suggests the Jays have at least some openness to moving on from the two years and $20.67MM remaining on the extension they inked with Grichuk in April of 2019.

Trading Grichuk now is awkward for a couple reasons, even beyond the lockout. His value is surely at a low ebb, given the disappointing season he just had in 2021. There’s also the fact that the club would be lacking in outfield depth without him. Outside of the aforementioned group of Springer, Gurriel and Hernandez, the only other regular outfielder on the 40-man roster is Josh Palacios, who also missed significant time with injury last year and has only played 16 career Triple-A games and 13 MLB games. Cavan Biggio has seen a bit of time in the outfield, but he’s still pencilled in for significant infield time at the moment. He also dealt with injuries last year, appearing in just 79 games. However, the team could also add some outfield depth after a Grichuk trade, perhaps by bringing back Corey Dickerson, who recently spoke highly of his time with the Jays last year.

One thing that could potentially work in the Jays’ favour is the lack of available free agent center fielders, with the best remaining options being bench/platoon types like Brett Gardner or Kevin Pillar. Grichuk’s poor 2021 notwithstanding, center fielders who play cromulent defense and reliably hit 20-plus home runs per season don’t grow on trees. Teams with designs on competing and questions in center field could perhaps take a chance on him, especially considering he isn’t likely to demand much of a return. The Phillies need help in the outfield and elsewhere, but likely don’t have a ton of money or young talent to trade. The Rockies have designs on competing and need outfield upgrades, having been connected to Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber this offseason. If they fail to lure in one of those high profile options, they’ll have to consider alternatives. The Marlins are known to be looking for center field help and don’t usually throw around big bucks in free agency, making them theoretical suitors for a lower-cost option like Grichuk.

Given Grichuk’s contract and mediocre 2021 season, it’s unlikely the Jays are able to line up a trade during what will surely be a frenzy of transactions between the theoretical end of the lockout and the beginning of the season. However, if they can, it would free up some payroll space for them to upgrade their infield and pitching staff, as they look to build off a 91-win campaign in 2021.

Any number of teams stand out as possible fits in a Kiermaier trade based on a variety of factors, including how much of the $14.5MM still owed to Kiermaier can best be absorbed into another team’s payroll.  It’s possible Tampa Bay might be open to a deal that sees the Rays accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for a team simply taking all of Kiermaier’s remaining salary, or perhaps the Rays might add a prospect along with Kiermaier to facilitate this semi-salary dump.

But, there’s another wrinkle that could be involved in any Kiermaier negotiations.  If such talks involve how much of Kiermaier’s salary will be covered by either side, it seems likely that at least one team has asked the Rays “hey, what about your other less-expensive center fielder entering his last year of team control?”

That would be Manuel Margot, scheduled for free agency following the 2022 season and projected to earn $5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Seen as a natural center field successor to Kiermaier in the event of a trade, Margot would likely be a replacement for 2022 alone, given how the Rays generally only look to extend players in the early stages of their careers.  If Margot isn’t a long-term answer, therefore, he himself stands out as a trade chip for a Rays front office that has traditionally been open to dealing almost anyone on their roster.

Margot is no stranger to switching teams, having already been part of two prominent trades in his career.  The outfielder was part of the four-player package dealt from the Red Sox to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel in November 2015, and then Padres then shipped him to Tampa almost exactly two years ago to the day.  That deal saw the Padres acquire Emilio Pagan for Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll, and it’s a trade that now looks like a solid win for the Rays given how Pagan has struggled over his two years in San Diego.

Margot, meanwhile, has contributed 2.0 fWAR over his 172 games in a Rays uniform, largely due to his excellent defense.  As per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, in fact, Margot was the best overall defensive outfielder in baseball last year, with a league-best +16 OAA.  The UZR/150 (+3.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+13) metrics largely back up that assessment, as Margot played 656 2/3 innings in right field, 182 innings in center, and 122 2/3 innings in left in 2021.

Offensively, Margot is much more of a mixed bag.  His 95 wRC+ and 96 OPS+ over his two seasons in Tampa is only slightly below average, and a .258/.317/.375 slash line over 623 plate appearances is passable considering what Margot brings to the table with his glovework.  Margot also doesn’t strike out often, and has excellent speed, even if that speed has only translated into moderate success on the basepaths (25 steals in 37 chances with the Rays).

In general, however, Margot isn’t a major threat at the dish.  He hasn’t shown much power or an ability to consistently draw walks, and while Margot may make plenty of contact, the quality of that contact is well below-average.  Margot’s hard-hit ball rates and barrel rates have both been subpar every season from 2017-21.  As one might expect from a right-handed bat, Margot’s career splits against southpaws (.760 OPS) are better than his numbers against righty pitching (.663 OPS).

All in all, Margot may not be an ideal fit as an everyday outfielder, but he is an ideal fourth outfielder or platoon partner.  His ability to play all over the outfield makes Margot a particularly valuable piece for a Rays team that values flexibility, as Margot is a natural complement to the left-handed hitting Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Brett Phillips (plus Margot has also spelled the righty-swinging Randy Arozarena on occasion).

While he might be a good roster fit for the Rays, however, is Margot a fit for $5MM?  That projected figure would represent the fifth-highest 2022 salary on Tampa Bay’s books, behind Kiermaier, Corey Kluber ($8MM), Mike Zunino ($7MM) and Tyler Glasnow’s $5.8MM arbitration projection.  Since the Rays are always keeping a close eye on their budget, Margot’s $5MM figure may be deemed too pricey for what he brings in a backup outfield role.

Phillips, it should be noted, has hit .204/.301/.421 in 351 PA over the last two seasons.  It isn’t exactly an offensive breakout, but it does represent a 101 wRC+/102 OPS+ that is at least a tick higher than Margot, and Phillips also brings comparable fielding and speed.

Top prospect Josh Lowe is also waiting in the wings, after playing his first two MLB games last season.  Lowe is eyed as the longer-term answer in center field anyway, and seems likely to get a good chunk of playing time in 2022 regardless of who may or may not still be around in the Rays’ outfield.

There would be risk in counting on Lowe and Phillips to handle center field in the event of another Kiermaier absence, as Kiermaier’s well-documented injury history means that Tampa Bay simply can’t count on him for a full season.  Arozarena or even switch-hitter Vidal Brujan could be deployed in center field in a pinch, to add a right-handed element to a center field mix that would be lefty-heavy if Margot wasn’t around.  We also can’t rule out the possibility that the Rays could trade Margot and then acquire another outfielder in a future move, finding another Margot-esque player on the market available at a lower cost.

As mentioned earlier, you really can’t rule much out when it comes to potential Rays trades.  It stands to reason that Kiermaier would be the preferred trade chip, yet if the questions about his health and salary prove to be too much of an obstacle, Tampa Bay might pivot to the next name down on the center field depth chart.  Even if Margot lacks Kiermaier’s upside as an everyday player, his lower salary and comparable skillset would probably appeal to roughly the same number of outfield-needy teams.  If anything, Margot’s lower salary might even bring more teams into the mix.