It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.

A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.

By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.

Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.

The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.

Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.

The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.

After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.

That Fedde could find himself on the trading block this spring, on its face, isn’t a huge surprise. After all, the Cardinals seemingly made every effort to trade veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado this winter, and while those efforts appear to remain a longshot to come to fruition they still combine with the club’s decision to let players like Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency to paint a picture of a club looking to focus on the future rather than the present. That would normally make a rental pitcher like Fedde something of a no-brainer to deal away, but St. Louis has resisted the prospect of fully committing to 2025 as a rebuilding year.

The Cards expressed a reluctance to make long-term commitments this winter, and that appears to have included even extension conversations with pending free agents like Ryan Helsley. Even as they’ve done that, however, St. Louis has held onto their closer despite receiving interest from multiple clubs in his services. The same is true of Fedde and even back-of-the-rotation southpaw Steven Matz, both of whom were reportedly drawing interest on the trade market as far back as December but the Cardinals never outwardly expressed much interest in moving.

Against the backdrop of the Cardinals’ overall approach to the winter, the idea that Fedde could be moved before Opening Day registers as something of a surprise. It’s easy to see why the club may want to make such a move, however. As Goold notes, part of the impetus behind looking to deal Arenado was about scaling back the club’s payroll in order to reinvest in their development apparatus. While Fedde’s $7.5MM salary is fairly inexpensive and he’s on the books for just one year, it’s possible that those funds would be reallocated to the budget when the club plans to be more competitive in 2026.

More than the financial aspect, however, what could be appealing to the Cardinals is the opportunity to give another young player consistent playing time this year. McGreevey impressed in a brief cup of coffee last year, posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings of work, and with an aging starting rotation it’s easy to imagine the Cardinals wanting to add another young, controllable arm to the mix alongside Andre Pallante. Given that reality, it’s easy to understand why 60% of MLBTR readers suggested that the Cardinals should pivot towards dealing a starter amid the likely return for Arenado to St. Louis for at least the start of the 2025 season.

Of course, those financial and playing time considerations are likely to be secondary to the return they could garner for Fedde’s services. The club surrendered utility man Tommy Edman to the Dodgers as part of a three-team deal in order to acquire Fedde from the White Sox, and after a season where he pitched to an excellent 3.30 ERA in 177 1/3 innings with a 3.86 FIP the Cardinals are surely hoping to get legitimate, long-term value for the righty in any deal. With other win-now pieces like Arenado, Helsley, and Sonny Gray all still on the roster, it makes little sense for St. Louis to trade a solid mid-rotation arm like Fedde just for the sake of making a move. Perhaps a desire to extract the best package possible in exchange for Fedde was the cause for St. Louis’s apparent hesitance about dealing Fedde throughout the winter, giving the premium placed on quality starting pitching at the trade deadline every summer.

If getting the best return possible for Fedde’s services is the club’s priority, at least listening to offers this spring certainly makes sense. After all, Goold points out that the inevitable pitching injuries that will crop up throughout the spring are bound to create a market for starting pitching help. The first significant pitching injury of the spring already occurred when the Mets revealed that Frankie Montas will be shut down for six to eight weeks due to a lat issue, and while they don’t currently plan to add a starter it’s not hard to imagine a similar injury elsewhere around the league causing another contender to get antsy about their rotation depth. If no significant offer comes through for Fedde this spring, the Cardinals can of course simply reassess at the deadline based on the team’s competitive outlook for the stretch run and either field offers again over the summer or simply hold onto Fedde and potentially extend him a Qualifying Offer in the fall.

The report meshes with comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak earlier today, in which he suggested to reporters that he didn’t feel anything was “imminent” regarding Arenado. Rome and Woo go on to relay that sources described the possibility of a deal coming together between the two teams as a “long shot,” adding that a deal the sides discussed involving Arenado was considered a “non-starter.” Given that description of talks between the two sides, it’s not entirely clear if Arenado has been approached by St. Louis brass about the possibility of approving a trade to Houston since the Astros tried to reignite talks or if discussions between the sides did not advance far enough for Mozeliak to even broach the subject with his veteran star.

Even when Arenado first blocked a trade to Houston back in December, reporting was quick to emphasize that Arenado’s reluctance to approve the trade was not necessarily a final decision and that he was hoping to survey his own market as well as see how the Astros planned to improve the club after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs just before Arenado vetoed a prospective move to Houston. Now that Bregman has landed in Boston, the Red Sox join the Padres and Dodgers as unlikely landing spots for the veteran due to their full infield mixes. The Yankees have a clear hole at third base Arenado could step into fairly seamlessly, but talks between the Bronx and St. Louis have failed to gain traction due to New York’s unwillingness to spend much beyond their current payroll projection.

That leaves the Astros as the final team reportedly on Arenado’s initial list of approved suitors as things stand. It’s possible that the lack of clear alternative options, in tandem with the Astros’ addition of Christian Walker to their infield mix, would be enough to convince Arenado to approve a trade to Houston. At the same time, it’s entirely possible that Arenado would prefer to play the first half of the season out in St. Louis at this point before both he and Mozeliak reassess the situation over the summer, when St. Louis’s position in an unsettled NL Central division will be more clear and Arenado will have a more concrete idea of which clubs are contenders for the coming postseason.

Rome and Woo go on to note that the Astros’ latest push to swing a deal for Arenado highlights the questions surrounding the Astros’ lineup at this point. Longtime second baseman Jose Altuve appears to be moving towards playing left field at least on a part-time basis, though a trade for Arenado would be expected to make the veteran a full-time presence in left while Isaac Paredes slides from third base to second to accommodate Arenado. Should Altuve end up moving to left field for the majority of his reps this year, that leaves the club fairly thin around the infield with only Mauricio Dubon and non-roster invitees like Brendan Rodgers and Luis Guillorme available to play second base on days Altuve is in left and/or back up the rest of the club’s infield mix.

Even if Altuve were to remain at second base close to full time, however, it can be argued the club is still a bat short. Jake Meyers appears poised to be the club’s regular center fielder with Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick handling the outfield corners. Gamel and McCormick both feature significant platoon splits, however, and adding at least one part-time outfield bat to the mix seems prudent whether that’s the addition of Altuve to the outfield mix or an external addition should the veteran remain on the infield dirt.

Free agent options are relatively scarce at this point in the calendar, with Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield the best infield pieces still available while Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, and David Peralta are among a handful of outfield options still on the market. It’s also possible the Astros could look for other alternatives on the trade market, though with rosters largely set for the coming season it’s unclear what players could still be available that would represent a substantial improvement for the club relative to their current situation.

1:16PM: Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed trade to the Astros back in December, which seemingly ended the third baseman’s chances of going to Houston once the Astros pivoted to then add Christian Walker to their infield mix.  However, just as it seemed the Cardinals’ chances of dealing Arenado this offseason had run out, St. Louis and Houston have re-engaged on a new set of talks on an Arenado trade, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Mark Feinsand, and John Denton.

It would be quite a wild conclusion to one of the offseason’s top storylines if Arenado ended up in an Astros uniform after all, yet Houston’s increased willingness to move Jose Altuve from second base to left field may have created an opening for these fresh negotiations between the Astros and Cardinals.  Arenado would take over from Isaac Paredes at third base, with Paredes then moving to Altuve’s old spot at second base.  Reports of Altuve’s willingness to play left field emerged when the Astros were exploring the idea of re-signing Alex Bregman, and Altuve has been hard at work doing outfield drills in the early stages of Spring Training.

Astros manager Joe Espada has yet to make any firm statements about Altuve’s readiness as a left fielder, as Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that it will still be another week before Altuve lines up in the outfield during spring game action.  Still, it could be a sign of the Astros’ comfort level in Altuve’s outfield capability that the team is again looking into the possibility of an Arenado deal.

The ball is ultimately in Arenado’s court due to his no-trade protection, yet Houston was one of the five teams that Arenado told the Cardinals front office he was open to joining.  The fact that Arenado rejected the earlier trade to Houston seems to have been just a matter of timing, as the offer apparently came just after the Astros dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, and Arenado wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation.  Rather than continue to wait out Arenado’s decision, the Astros instead went out and signed Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal, which seemed to reinforce Walker and Paredes as the team’s new corner infield combo.

Houston was willing to disrupt that new status quo if it meant re-signing its longtime third baseman in Bregman, however, and the same could be true here if the Astros and Cardinals can find common ground on a trade, and if Arenado this time green-lights the proceedings.  By the same measure, the Astros were willing to stretch their budget to accommodate Bregman’s return, and the same would have to be true if Arenado’s contract is acquired.  Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, though that number is really $60MM when factoring in deferrals and the $10MM covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the original trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis in the 2020-21 offseason.

In the previous trade offer, the Astros would have taken on $40MM-$45MM of Arenado’s still-owed salary, with the Cards eating the rest.  It isn’t known if any type of significant prospects might have been included as well, but it could be that Houston was offering just a minimal player return since the Cardinals’ top priority was moving as much of Arenado’s salary as possible off the team’s books.  Speculatively speaking, the Astros could be looking to still land Arenado but with the Cardinals absorbing a larger portion of the salary, perhaps leveraging the fact that the Cards are short on alternative options if they want to move Arenado at all.

Trading Arenado and gaining this salary relief has been the chief goal of the St. Louis offseason, yet Arenado’s limited list of suitors left president of baseball operations John Mozeliak without much of a plan B after the Astros trade was nixed.  The Red Sox were another team on Arenado’s approval list, but their third base need was met when Boston signed Bregman.  As the Cards’ spring camp opened, both Mozeliak and Arenado indicated that a trade now seemed unlikely and Arenado was probably going to start the season in St. Louis, so these late talks with Houston could be a Hail Mary development for both teams.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Red Sox signing Alex Bregman (1:15)
• The Tigers just missing on Bregman (9:35)
• The Cardinals seemingly holding onto Nolan Arenado (12:15)
• The Padres signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart (17:40)
• The Blue Jays not getting an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20:50)
• The Diamondbacks extending Geraldo Perdomo (31:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
• Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here
• Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
• Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

“I’m back and I’m ready to go play ball,” Arenado said, as relayed by Goold. “I’m a ballplayer, and I’m a Cardinal, until I’m told I’m not. You know what I mean? And that’s all there is to it. And I’ve got a lot of work to do. I’ve got to be a better ball player, and that’s what I’m focused on.”

While Arenado’s comments did not completely close the door on a trade, it’s become apparent that the Cardinals expect him to be their starting third baseman on Opening Day at this point. Goold notes that there’s currently no momentum towards a deal, and both Arenado and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak seem reasonably comfortable with the idea of the veteran third baseman sticking in St. Louis to start the year. While Mozeliak acknowledged throughout the offseason that trading Arenado was his top priority, his tone regarding the situation has shifted since the Red Sox landed Alex Bregman earlier this week, killing a potential deal between the sides that would have sent Arenado to Boston.

With the Red Sox now off the table as a potential suitor, Mozeliak suggested to reporters (including Goold) that while the door isn’t entirely closed on the possibility of Arenado being moved, he’s no longer seeking out potential trade partners and will instead wait to hear from any teams that might have interest in the eight-time All-Star. That’s a sensible call given that Arenado doesn’t seem motivated to expand the list of teams he would consider a trade to. The veteran indicated to reporters that he’s “not likely” to consider new destinations at this point, adding that he’s not interested in moving his family just for the sake of leaving St. Louis and only wants to leave for a team that’s closer to contending for a championship.

There’s plenty of teams that could be argued as closer to championship-caliber than the Cardinals, but Arenado’s list of teams he would approve a trade to includes five clubs or less according to Goold. Exactly which clubs are included in that list is unclear. The Astros were once thought to be on the list, but Arenado blocked a trade to Houston in December due to concerns regarding the club’s competitive direction in the aftermath of the Kyle Tucker trade. The Red Sox, Padres, and Dodgers are all widely acknowledged as clubs Arenado would likely approve a trade to, while the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and Mets are among the other teams that have been rumored as potential options Arenado could approve.

None of those teams appear especially likely to make a push for Arenado at this point. The Red Sox closed the hole in their infield by adding Bregman, while the Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies all also have no room for an addition to their infield mixes as presently constructed. The Padres could plausibly add another infielder, but with Manny Machado entrenched at third base Arenado would be an imperfect fit. San Diego also doesn’t appear to have the budget space necessary to add a player like Arenado to the payroll, and the same could be said of the Yankees until and unless they can move veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman. The Angels, meanwhile, are much further from contention than the other clubs Arenado is reportedly interested in joining and recently signed Yoan Moncada to supplant highly-paid but oft-injured veteran Anthony Rendon at third base.

That left Arenado as the most prominent trade candidate on the roster, but the third baseman vetoed a trade to the Astros at the eleventh hour back in December and his market began to dry up rapidly after that. The final nail in the coffin appeared to be the Red Sox, Arenado’s last serious known suitor, signing Alex Bregman to round out their infield mix. Now, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitting it’s likely Arenado remains in St. Louis to start the season, the Cardinals are poised to enter 2025 with the most notable change as compared to last year’s team being a lack of Goldschmidt at first base.

There’s one way the Cardinals could inject some more youth into the roster and create space in the payroll: trading from the rotation. Both Gray and veteran righty Miles Mikolas have no-trade clauses and appear unlikely to waive them, but veteran starters Erick Fedde and Steven Matz are both pending free agents who lack no-trade protection. Both players reportedly received interest from rival clubs earlier this offseason, and while the Cardinals at the time appeared focused on dealing Arenado rather than from the rotation, the unlikelihood of an Arenado trade could change that calculus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored for Front Office subscribers earlier this week, there are a number of teams around the league that could still use starting pitching help. Fedde in particular could likely bring back an enticing return as a relatively affordable rental starter who posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. The right-hander will make just $7.5MM in 2025, a sum that virtually any team could afford even during this late stage of the offseason. Matz is less likely to bring back significant talent in return given his up-and-down trajectory over the years, but shedding some of his $12MM salary for 2025 would allow the Cardinals to add a veteran reliever to set up for closer Ryan Helsley or even take on a bit more money to try and facilitate the Arenado deal with a cash-strapped club like the Yankees. (The Cardinals’ reluctance with regard to trading Helsley, also an impending free agent, is another curious decision, as highlighted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco last month.)

In addition to the prospects and/or salary relief trading a veteran starter could net, the Cardinals would also more clearly make way for their young arms to get work at the big league level. Top prospect Tink Hence has yet to make his Triple-A debut but dominated Double-A last year and should be on the big league radar later this year. In the meantime, Michael McGreevy is already knocking on the door of the majors after posting a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings as a starter for the club last year. Sem Robberse, Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby are among the potential starting options the Cardinals have at their disposal that don’t currently have a path to major league starts.

On the other hand, none of those options has proven himself in the majors. With Arenado now seemingly unlikely to move, the Cardinals may feel they’re better off trying to contend this year, at least in the first half when they still have the opportunity to pivot back towards selling at the trade deadline. After all, the Cardinals won 83 games last year despite their flawed roster, and a healthy season from Contreras, better batted ball luck from Gray, and a resurgence from Arenado could allow them to contend in an NL Central division that still looks relatively soft even after teams like the Cubs and Reds have made notable moves.

It’s also worth noting that, even without trading Arenado or a starter, the club has made at least some room for a legitimate youth movement to take place. Kicking Willson Contreras over to first base has opened up the catcher position for youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, while the departures of Gibson and Lance Lynn from the rotation have opened up a spot for Andre Pallante after he impressed in a rotation role last year. Other players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker figure to get more consistent playing time in 2025, and all it takes is an injury or two to get players like Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II more regular playing time in the majors as well.

With Opening Day just six weeks away, how do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals should proceed? Should they double down on their youth movement and deal a starter like Fedde or Matz to salvage their offseason of inaction, or should they hold onto their veteran rotation pieces through the early days of the season in hopes that internal improvements could make them a legitimate contender? Have your say in the poll below:

Given the events of recent weeks, that’s not terribly surprising. It was reported about a month ago that the club’s efforts to move Arenado had largely stalled, with the Red Sox being the best remaining landing spot, but even that fit had some problems.

The Sox are making a big investment in their infield, agreeing to a deal last night with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his own block Arenado from playing third at Fenway. However, the fit was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Moving Devers to first and then trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida were scenarios that were bandied about this winter but they always seemed somewhat of a difficult tightrope to walk.

Those scenarios are technically still possible to imagine in a vacuum but the larger team context makes it harder to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM average annual value. Deferreals reportedly drop the net present value closer to $31.9MM annually but it’s still a huge chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal still has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and some money being picked up by the Rockies.

Boston making a huge investment in their infield just to create roster problems was already a bit tough but is even tougher now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive today estimates the odds of Boston still being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”

In the larger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a very surprising place for them to be. By late September of last year, before the 2024 campaign had even fully ended, reports had emerged that the Cardinals were planning a shift in direction. 2025 was to be a sort of reset year, with the club focusing less on short-term contention and more on long-term player development. As part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 still in his POBO title while Chaim Bloom focused on overhauling the club’s player development system, but with Bloom to replace Mozeliak at season’s end.

At that point, there was plenty of speculation that the Cards would make players available if they were expensive or nearing free agency. Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others seemed likely to be available.

Now, several months later, they are all still on the roster. Contreras and Gray quickly signalled that they were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses while the club surprisingly didn’t seem to have much interest in moving Fedde or Helsley.

Arenado was reportedly more willing than Gray or Contreras to consider waiving his no-trade protection, but that didn’t mean he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had a list of six teams that he would approve a trade to, though there was also some pushback that such a firm list existed and that Arenado’s preferences were more context-dependent.

He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December but reportedly wasn’t wholly opposed to going to Houston. Rather, he had some hesitation about the club’s direction after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Rather than wait around and see if he would change his mind, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That effectively locked Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far less likely.

While Arenado may not have had an ironclad team list, it seems his parameters will have to widen for anything to get done now. “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” Mozeliak said of Arenado’s list of acceptable teams, per Jones. “Think we’ve exhausted the others.”

Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted five clubs that appeared to fit Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros were presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wanted the Cards to eat more of Arenado’s contract than they were willing to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and never seemed particularly interested in making a change there. The Padres are working under significant financial constraints. The Sox are now out after adding Bregman.

Perhaps Arenado will change his mind and consider other options, given the circumstances. His priority appears to be winning and that seems unlikely in St. Louis this year with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter but were turned away since the Cards didn’t think Arenado was willing to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might have some willingness to pivot to Arenado, though Arenado might not be willing to play for those clubs.

If Arenado does end up staying, it will leave the Cards with some playing time puzzles to figure out. Their thinking with an Arenado trade was to save some money but also to give more playing time to guys with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get regular run at third base as he looks to bounce back from a tough season in 2024. With Arenado still around, he could get pushed back to second base. That could block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan into a utility role where he spends more time in the outfield, perhaps taking playing time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.

Perhaps there are some twists and turns up ahead but it’s been a very surprising winter for the Cardinals thus far, as an offseason that once likely to involve significant changes has resulted in very few. They haven’t yet signed a free agent to a major league deal and their only trade has been to acquire depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.

Pallante, 26, worked his way into the St. Louis rotation last year and looks ticketed for a starting role again in 2025. The right-hander logged a 3.78 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and enormous 61.8% ground-ball rate in 121 1/3 innings over 29 appearances (20 starts). That 3.78 earned run average is a dead match for his career mark in what’s now a total of 297 1/3 innings.

This was Pallante’s first trip through arbitration. He’s picked up 2.145 years of big league service thus far, making him a Super Two player who’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three. The Cardinals can control him for four more years, all the way through 2028. He still has one minor league option remaining, though as long as he continues at the pace he’s established in his first three MLB seasons, that’s not going to come into play anytime soon.

Pallante figures to join Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the Cards’ Opening Day rotation — provided all are healthy. The Cardinals bought out 2025 club options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn but otherwise haven’t made any changes in the rotation — or really to the broader roster at large — despite a stated goal of getting younger and focusing on player development this coming season.

With Pallante’s salary now set, the Cardinals’ payroll checks in just shy of $148MM, per RosterResource. That’s a reduction of about $35MM, all of which was accomplished by parting with Gibson and Lynn and letting Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton walk as free agents.

Donovan, 28, has exactly three years of MLB service and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He’s combined to hit .280/.364/.407 in 1491 plate appearances since his 2022 debut, smacking 30 homers, 65 doubles and five triples along the way. He’s shown incremental power increases in each of the past two seasons — last year’s 14 round-trippers were a career-high — but has done so at the expense of some walks. He drew free passes at a hearty 12.8% clip in 2022 but drew a walk in a below-average 7.2% of last season’s 652 trips to the plate.

Beyond his keen bat-to-ball skills and knack for getting on base, Donovan’s value is largely tied to his defensive versatility. The term “super utility” gets thrown around a lot, but Donovan genuinely exemplifies that moniker. He’s played all four infield positions and both outfield corners in his MLB career (albeit only 65 innings at short and 150 innings at first base). Defensive metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved tend to agree that he’s at least passable, if not a bona fide plus defender at most spots on the diamond (with third base being his best, metrics-wise). The industry largely agrees. Donovan took home a Gold Glove for his utility work back in 2022.

Nootbaar, 27, is also in his first trip through arbitration. He’ll come out marginally ahead of Donovan, perhaps in part a reflection of his lower asking price and superior totals in home runs (45 to 30), games played (392 to 374) and baserunning value (24-for-30 in steals to 12-for-21) in the early portions of their respective careers. In parts of four MLB seasons, Nootbaar is a .246/.348/.425 hitter.

Nootbaar is ticketed for regular work in the outfield this year, though his exact placement could depend on the trade status of Nolan Arenado. If the Cardinals succeed in moving Arenado, they can deploy Nolan Gorman regularly at third base and Donovan at second base. That’d open left field for Nootbaar. If Arenado stays in place, Gorman would probably see more time at second base, pushing Donovan to left field with more regularity. That’d likely lead to additional time in center for Nootbaar, barring injuries to Donovan or right fielder Jordan Walker.

Both Donovan and Nootbaar are controlled for an additional two seasons. They’ll be up for free agency in the 2027-28 offseason. With the Cardinals eyeing some kind of reset and refocus on player development, either could feasibly emerge as a summer trade candidate, but St. Louis has been staunchly against moving affordable/controllable players of this ilk. In fact, despite their proclamation of wanting to open more time for younger players, they haven’t parted with a single veteran this offseason. They also haven’t added any new pieces. While the front office has doggedly focused on trying to find an Arenado trade, there’s been no fruit in those negotiations.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets (1:45)
• What’s next for the Blue Jays after not getting Alonso? (9:25)
• Will the Mets and Alonso going to reunite again in the future or will this be it? (12:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• What teams could still sign Alex Bregman? (17:50)
• Can the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado to the Red Sox? (29:20)
• Do the Orioles need an ace? (37:55)
• What are the Marlins building right now? (39:30)

Check out our past episodes!

• Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
• Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here
• Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Kaminsky first signed with St. Louis in 2013 as the 28th overall pick in the draft. Despite his young age – he made his pro debut at 18 – the southpaw impressed right away. Over his first three years in the Cardinals system, he threw 217 1/3 innings between Rookie ball and High-A, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and 2.90 FIP.

St. Louis traded Kaminsky to Cleveland ahead of the 2015 trade deadline, in exchange for Brandon Moss. It was after the trade that Kaminsky began to struggle, and questions about his ability to stick in the rotation began to arise. Following a 2017 season almost completely lost to injury, he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2018 and ’19, compiling a 3.31 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 84 1/3 innings pitched. While his numbers were solid (if unspectacular), he had largely fallen off of top prospects lists by that time. He elected minor league free agency after the 2019 season.

Kaminsky re-joined the Cardinals on a minor league pact that winter and made his MLB debut the following summer. He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2020, striking out three and walking two. He gave up three runs, although only one was earned. Despite his serviceable results, the Cardinals DFA’d him after his fifth appearance in September. He has not returned the to major leagues since.

From 2021-24, Kaminsky bounced from the Phillies to the Mariners to the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League and back to the Mariners. He dealt with various injury issues in that time and struggled to make much of an impact when he did take the mound. That being said, it’s worth noting that he made eight starts at Triple-A Tacoma in 2024. It was the first time he had made more than two starts in a season since 2016. Kaminsky is highly unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but he will offer the Cardinals some left-handed depth for the bullpen, and possibly the rotation, too. Perhaps a return to his former club will help him get back on track as he strives to return to the majors in 2025.

Anderson also finished out the 2023 season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He began the 2022 season on the shelf while mending from an internal brace procedure the prior year, and his ’22 campaign ended due to plantar fasciitis. In his injury-dotted big league career, Anderson has also missed due to a back strain and a forearm issue.

It’s a laundry list of injuries, but Anderson has typically been excellent when healthy. Dating back to his 2019 MLB debut, he’s pitched 158 1/3 major league innings and logged a 3.18 earned run average. Anderson has 39 holds and 10 saves in his career, and his rate stats are eye-catching: 31.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and a gaudy 15.4% swinging-strike rate.

The 34-year-old Anderson gives the Cardinals an upside play in their late-inning mix if he can stay healthy. He hasn’t done that over the course of a full season since 2019, but there’s no harm for the Cardinals in taking a look. A healthy Anderson would be a boon to the bullpen, and he’s throwing well this summer he’d be a natural trade chip as St. Louis looks to restock its farm system. Anderson has 5.094 years of major league service to his credit, so there’s no surplus club control here. He’ll reach six years of big league service with another 78 days in the majors, so he’s very likely to end up a free agent at season’s end one way or another.

The Cardinals’ bullpen heading into 2025 — like their roster as a whole — is largely unchanged. The club has reportedly rebuffed interest in star closer (and pending free agent) Ryan Helsley despite taking a step back to focus on player development. JoJo Romero, Ryan Fernandez, Matthew Liberatore and John King are among the other options for manager Oli Marmol. If Anderson makes the club, it seems fair to expect that he’ll factor into setup duties and perhaps even get a crack at closing games if Helsley is moved or lands on the injured list himself.