At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

The knee sprain was a little more serious than appeared at the time, as Alvarez told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle through an interpreter that “there was a lot of damage” and “at the time of the injury, there was a lot of doubts” about whether or not a surgical procedure would be required.

“But the last three or four weeks, it’s been feeling great, so everything is good to go….Apparently, it wasn’t enough damage to have surgery, [because] the body’s been recovering good and I feel good to go,” Alvarez said.

Alvarez’s mention of that 3-4 week timeline is somewhat eyebrow-raising, as it would somewhat indicate that surgery remained on the table until pretty recently.  However, Alvarez declared himself ready for the start of Spring Training, and said he didn’t expect to have any limitations on his ability to play in left field.  “I’ve been running, training, and I haven’t had any setbacks, and it’s good,” Alvarez said.

This isn’t the first time knee problems have hampered Alvarez, since arthroscopic surgeries on both knees limited Alvarez to only two games during the 2020 campaign.  Alvarez has mostly been utilized as a DH during his career, but he has made 190 appearances as a left fielder over the last four years, giving the Astros a bit of extra flexibility in juggling their lineups.

A change to even this limited outfield usage could be coming, since manager Joe Espada told Kawahara and other reporters during the Winter Meetings that “I would like to kind of cut back on the amount of reps that [Alvarez] gets in left field.”  While this isn’t a huge surprise given Alvarez’s most recent knee issue and his subpar defense, it is noteworthy considering the Astros’ lack of outfield depth.  With former right Kyle Tucker now traded to the Cubs, Houston’s Opening Day starting outfield looks like some combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell, and utilityman Mauricio Dubon, with Shay Whitcomb as further depth and top prospect Jacob Melton expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

It isn’t the most inspiring outfield mix on paper, which is why the Astros were linked to such free agents and trade targets as Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Verdugo at various points this offseason.  Verdugo remains unsigned, and he would fulfill the Astros’ particular stated goal of adding a left-handed hitter to their predominantly right-handed lineup.  Beyond external additions, however, Houston is also at least considering a more creative answer of moving Jose Altuve to left field, if Alex Bregman is re-signed to play third base and Isaac Paredes is moved into Altuve’s old second base spot.

Christian Walker will help some of the offensive void left by Walker’s departure, but if Bregman also heads elsewhere, a healthy and productive Alvarez will be more critical than ever to Houston’s lineup.  Since Alvarez made his MLB debut in 2019, his 166 wRC+ is second only to Aaron Judge (180) among all big league hitters, with Alvarez hitting .298/.390/.583 with 164 home runs over his 2688 career plate appearances.  The slugger has also hit .294/.393/.551 with 12 homers across 252 career PA in the postseason, including ALCS MVP honors in 2021.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

Verlander, 41, missed a substantial portion of the season due to shoulder and neck injuries. Houston reinstated him from the injured list in late August after an absence of more than two months owing to said neck issues, and while he was solid in his return effort (two runs in five innings versus the Red Sox), his season quickly snowballed thereafter. The three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer was torched for a catastrophic 8.89 ERA over his final six starts, which included individual games that saw him yield four, five, six and eight runs. Manager Joe Espada tells the Astros beat that the conversation with Verlander was “very easy,” crediting him for being “a true pro” about the decision (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

One notable return to the lineup, however, is Yordan Alvarez. The Houston slugger has been out of action for more than a week due to a sprained knee, but he’s in the lineup hitting second and serving as Houston’s designated hitter. Espada tells the Astros beat that Alvarez is not 100% and isn’t likely to run at full speed or slide (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, Alvarez’s game-changing power and general excellence at the plate — he hit .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers in 147 games — are enough that the ’Stros will live with those shortcomings to get his bat into the order.

The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound to start Game 1 opposite Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. They’ve yet to announce the second and third starters for the potential three-game set. Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are all on the playoff roster, as are relievers Bryan Abreu, Caleb Ferguson, Josh Hader, Bryan King, Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly.

On the position player side of things, the ’Stros are going with catchers Victor Caratini, Yainer Diaz and Cesar Salazar; infielders Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Jeremy Pena and Jon Singleton; and outfielders Jason Heyward, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez, listed as an outfielder, seems quite likely to serve as the DH for this series at least, given the physical limitations outlined by Espada.

Alvarez hasn’t played since suffering a knee sprain while sliding on September 22, and it seems possible that the Astros might not tip their hand about his availability until Tuesday morning, when they have to release their rosters for their AL Wild Card Series with the Tigers.  Waiting until the relative last minute makes it harder for the Tigers to prepare, and it also gives Alvarez and the Astros as much time as possible to evaluate the star slugger’s knee health.

Outfielder Chas McCormick might be another late roster decision, though MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes (X link) that McCormick took live batting practice today and is set for another live BP session tomorrow.  McCormick has been sidelined since September 10 due to a fracture in his right hand, but has been able to take part in other baseball activities over the past week.

More from the AL West…

• Recurring shoulder problems sent Josh Sborz to the injured list four different times this season, and limited the Rangers reliever to only 17 games and 16 1/3 innings.  Sborz told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he is going to consult Dr. Neal ElAttrache about the problem, and whether or not surgery could possibly be required.  “For me, not having any understanding of it is what’s killing me the most,” Sborz said.  “You get hurt, you want to understand it so you can mitigate the risk of it coming back.  I’d like to get clarity, but the crappy thing about shoulders is there isn’t a lot of clarity.”  Surgery and a lengthy recovery could turn Sborz into a non-tender candidate for the Rangers as he enters his second year of arbitration eligibility, which would be a tough outcome for a pitcher who was a key part of the Texas bullpen during the 2023 postseason.  Sborz earned $1.025MM this season, and is due just a minimal raise because of all the time spent on the IL.
• Brandon Drury hit only .169/.242/.228 over 360 plate appearances for the Angels this season, with a 34 wRC+ that was by far the worst of any player in the majors with at least 350 PA.  Migraines and some nagging injuries played a role in these struggles, but Drury told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that some swing changes last offseason might’ve been the biggest culprit, as his attempts to add exit velocity backfired badly.  It all added up to a rough platform year as Drury enters free agency, and the 32-year-old might have to settle for either a minor league contract or a small guaranteed deal heading into his 11th MLB season.  Assuming Drury figures things out with his offseason prep, there’s seemingly some good bounce-back potential, as Drury hit a very solid .263/.313/.493 over 1179 PA from 2021-23.

“I haven’t really thought about it too much, honestly,” Bregman told reporters yesterday when asked about the possibility of leaving Houston, as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “Just focused on trying to win a game and get this division clinched… Just been really focused on winning.”

Waiting until the end of the postseason (or for the Astros to be eliminated) before engaging in talks regarding Bregman’s future in Houston comes as something of a surprise, particularly given Brown’s long-standing commitment to talking with the third baseman and his representation before he hits free agency. With that being said, it’s not necessarily a shock from the player’s perspective that he would prefer to focus on the upcoming playoff run before turning to contract negotiations.

Generally, it’s extremely rare for players to re-up with their current club this close to free agency, particularly when it comes to stars of Bregman’s caliber. It does happen on occasion, though, as it did when the Mets retained closer Edwin Diaz on a record-breaking contract just days before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. That Bregman is represented by the Boras Corporation, which has generally advised its clients to establish their values on the open market, could be another potential roadblock to a deal coming together before he hits free agency. Of course, it must be noted that Boras clients do sign extensions with their clubs on occasion; Bregman himself did so earlier in his career, and fellow third baseman Matt Chapman inked a long-term extension with the Giants earlier this month despite a return to free agency being just two months away at that point.

While Bregman’s uncertain future looms over the club in the longer term, a much more immediate concern is the status of star slugger Yordan Alvarez with the playoffs just around the corner. Alvarez exited the club’s game on Sunday due to a right knee sprain, but seemed somewhat optimistic after speaking to reporters about the issue yesterday (X video link courtesy of KHOU11’s Luis Ortiz). Alvarez said that while he’s had an easier time walking in the days since his exit, he still has to wait for the inflammation in his knee to go down before he can return to playing. That will leave him out of action for the club’s final series of the season against Guardians, as manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) earlier today.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would have Alvarez take the remainder of the regular season off, given his importance to the club’s hopes of making noise in the postseason. After all, Houston clinched their fourth consecutive AL West title last night with a win over the Mariners, and it is no longer possible for them to catch either the Guardians or the eventual AL East champion in order to earn a bye through the upcoming Wild Card Series. That makes the final few games of the regular season largely meaningless for the club, offering them little incentive to rush Alvarez back and potentially worsen his injury woes.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Alvarez will be ready to return to action in time for the Wild Card series, but even if he doesn’t it’s possible he’ll be available in later postseason rounds should the Astros continue to advance. His regular season comes to a close with a career-high 147 games under his belt and a typically excellent slash line of .308/.392/.567 with a wRC+ of 167 and 35 homers in 635 trips to the plate.

It’s a similar story for outfielder Chas McCormick, who has been on the injured list due to a fractured right hand for just over two weeks now. As relayed by Kawahara, Espada told reporters that McCormick is “moving in the right direction” and “looking pretty good” despite the fact that he won’t be joining the club for its final regular season games in Cleveland. The 29-year-old has resumed baseball activities, including reps in the batting cage and drills in the outfield, and could still be an option for the Astros in next week’s Wild Card Series. McCormick had a disappointing regular season where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+), but he was putting together something of a hot streak in the days prior to his injury as he went 10 for his last 24 with a double, a homer, and a walk in his final eight games of the regular season.

Knee problems have bothered Alvarez for much of his career, and he had arthroscopic surgeries on both of his knees back in 2020.  The Astros have primarily used Alvarez as a DH in a nod to these knee issues, and while there isn’t yet any indication that today’s injury is anything more than a bruise, it certainly isn’t a good sign to see one of Houston’s top hitters suddenly facing a health concern just a week away from the playoffs.  Alvarez is enjoying another tremendous season, with a 35 homers and a .305/.309/.564 slash line in a career-high 636 plate appearances entering today’s action.

More from around the AL West…

• Gregory Santos could be activated off the Mariners’ 15-day injured list within the next couple of days, the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude reports (via X).  Between a season-opening lat strain and then a bout of biceps inflammation that has kept him sidelined since July 31, Santos has appeared in only six games for Seattle this year, delivering a 6.75 ERA in 5 1/3 innings of work.  Santos has also tossed 5 1/3 innings during his six Triple-A rehab outings, with a 1.69 ERA but also with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six).  Acquired from the White Sox in a notable February trade, Santos hasn’t done much in his first season with the Mariners, but there’s a chance for some late heroics if he can return in time to help the M’s sneak into a playoff berth.
• Speaking of injury-plagued seasons, Max Scherzer’s 2024 campaign officially ended when a hamstring strain sent him to the Rangers’ 15-day injured list yesterday.  Limited to a career-low 43 1/3 innings in 2024, Scherzer has already stated that he wants to return for an 18th big league season, and he told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters today that he is open to returning to Texas.  Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford are all lined up as rotation locks or candidates for the Rangers next season, so on paper, there might not be room for a reunion with Scherzer even on a one-year deal.  That said, there’s also enough uncertainty within that projected depth chart that Texas might want still seek out more arms, and a pitcher with Scherzer’s track record still has plenty of upside even at age 40.
• Ben Gamel was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a fractured fibula, and in his weekly appearance on the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown confirmed that Gamel will “most likely” not be available for the postseason.  Between Gamel’s injury, Chas McCormick’s fractured hand, and the new uncertainty about Alvarez’s status, Houston’s outfield is suddenly facing depth issues as the playoffs approach.

Alvarez himself spoke to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) after the game as well, telling them through an interpreter that he was hit on the same spot on his knee a couple of weeks ago and that the inflammation from that previous incident had not yet fully gone away when he was struck this afternoon. Alvarez acknowledged he was in “a lot of pain” following the game but suggested that he and the club would see how he feels tomorrow before making any decisions regarding his status.

It’s the second consecutive day the Astros have lost a key player to a hit by pitch, as star second baseman Jose Altuve was removed from yesterday’s game after getting struck in the wrist by a pitch. Altuve wasn’t in the club’s lineup for today’s game, but Kawahara notes that x-rays on the veteran’s wrist came back negative and that the star expected not to miss much time due to the issue. That may still be the case even after he was absent from today’s lineup, as Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) today that Altuve was available off the bench to pinch hit if necessary today, although youngster Grae Kessinger was the one who ultimately replaced Alvarez at DH.

The fact that Altuve, who has slashed an excellent .310/.360/.466 (136 wRC+) across 86 games this year in his 14th year suiting up for the Astros in the majors, is seemingly poised to avoid the IL is surely a relief for fans in Houston as the club attempts to chase down the Mariners in the AL West. Unfortunately, Alvarez may be even more important to the club’s offense. The slugger has hit at his typical elite level this year, slashing .300/.383/.548 with a 158 wRC+ that ranks ninth in the majors across 371 trips to the plate. For an Astros club that has gotten less offensive output than expected from key pieces like Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick, the offense both Alvarez and Altuve provide in the lineup is all the more important, and even a brief absence for either player would be troubling.

While two of the club’s star hitters are dealing with injury issues, a third is making progress toward a return from the IL. Espada also told reporters (including McTaggart) today that outfielder Kyle Tucker did some jogging yesterday as he works his way back from a shin contusion that’s kept him on the injured list for the past month. Espada added that Tucker has also been playing catch and has resumed hitting off a pitching machine. Tucker isn’t expected to return to the club until after the All Star break at this point, but the fact that he’s begun doing some light running and basic drills is an encouraging step forward for a player Houston figures to rely on heavily in the second half.

Prior to being placed on the shelf last month, the 27-year-old was in the midst of a career year, even compared to the standards set by his All-Star campaigns in 2022 and ’23. In 60 games this season prior to going on the shelf, Tucker slashed an incredible .266/.395/.584 with a 174 wRC+. While Tucker’s surprisingly low .245 BABIP holds his overall line down slightly, the outfielder was walking (17.6%) more than he struck out (15.6%) and had slugged 19 homers in just 262 trips to the plate prior to his injury. If he can post numbers in a similar vicinity upon his return to action, Tucker will add another key cog to the club’s lineup and surely help shoulder the load that Alvarez and Altuve have taken on in his absence.

Alvarez has made consecutive starts in left field after previously appearing in only three games at the position. Espada noted that Alvarez picking up outfield at-bats will come at the expense of Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, adding that he’ll still work to keep everyone involved in the mix for playing time. (MVP candidate Kyle Tucker and center fielder Jake Meyers, in the midst of a breakout showing, naturally don’t appear as though their playing time will be impacted.)

Abreu is 1-for-6 with an RBI single since being recalled from a monthlong sojourn to the minor leagues — a rare assignment for a veteran of his status but one to which the former AL MVP consented after a disastrous start to the season. He went 7-for-22 with a homer and a pair of doubles with Houston’s Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate. Abreu then played a pair of games in Triple-A Sugar Land and went 0-for-7 with a walk and three strikeouts.

The Astros are trying what they can to get Abreu back on track after a disappointing debut campaign in 2023 and a calamitous .099/.156/.113 slash through his first 77 plate appearances of the current campaign. It’s not clear what kind of leash Abreu will have, particularly with Houston sitting 6.5 games back in both the AL West and in the AL Wild Card chase, but Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract gives the team plenty of financial incentive to try to turn things around.

Between Abreu and the 32-year-old Singleton, who returned to the majors after a seven-year absence last season, the Astros’ first base mix has been woefully unproductive. Singleton has turned in a .221/.327/.359 slash — roughly league-average offense (102 wRC+) that’s been accompanied by poorly rated defense (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average in 293 innings).

That lackluster output from the team’s first basemen is just one of many reasons the Astros find themselves staring at a 24-32 record with more than a third of the season in the books. The rotation’s health — or rather, the lack thereof — has also been a prominent factor. On that front, Espada provided a mixed bag of updates.

On the positive side of things, right-hander Luis Garcia is continuing to progress well in his rehab from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He threw off a mound at Minute Maid Park last week, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets that the right-hander is now slated to throw to hitters in his next throwing session. McTaggart adds that righty Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on the mend from flexor surgery, threw a bullpen session this week but is still “a few weeks” from facing live hitters.

Facing live hitters and pitching in simulated game settings are often the last steps before an injured pitcher is cleared to set out on a minor league rehab assignment. Garcia will presumably have multiple live batting practice sessions before progressing to a rehab stint, which could last up to 30 days itself. A return isn’t right around the corner just yet, but he’s on track for a midsummer debut this year. McCullers, it seems, isn’t terribly far behind him.

Less encouraging were Espada’s updates on injured right-handers Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. Both are “getting opinions from other doctors,” according to Espada (via McTaggart). Seeking second opinions is always an ominous step for a pitcher, particularly when both are dealing with this type of injury. Urquidy has yet to pitch this season after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. Javier went on the injured list last week with forearm discomfort.

The Astros are set to open the 2024 season with the same rotation mix as they had in the second half of the 2023 campaign. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier will be in the first three slots. Luis García, who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year, could return at some point in the second half. Until then, the spots at the back half will likely be taken by some combination of Hunter Brown, José Urquidy, J.P. France or Brandon Bielak.

The bullpen, however, has seen more turnover since last year. Each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. Neris signed with the Cubs and Maton with the Rays, while Stanek is still a free agent. The Astros made one big push to cover for those three losses by signing Hader.

The signing of Hader gives the Astros a deadly trio to finish games, with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu also excellent relievers. But the group gets a bit less scary after that. Rafael Montero is coming off a rough year, posting a 5.08 ERA in 2023 after signing a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The 40-man roster also has guys like Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Dylan Coleman and Oliver Ortega but they are all pretty light on experience.

Adding to that group would be sensible but it’s interesting that Brown said that could come via adding a starter and bumping someone from that mix to the bullpen. Brown looked pretty good for much of the year but seemed to fade down the stretch, with a 3.62 ERA through June but a 6.95 ERA after. He’s still only 25 and that was his first full season in the big leagues, so it’s possible he’ll avoid that slowdown as he acclimates to the big league grind.

Urquidy came into 2023 with a career ERA of 3.74 but his .253 batting average on balls in play and 78.5% strand rate were both on the lucky side. His 4.35 FIP and 4.29 SIERA pointed to some regression, which came last year. He posted a 5.29 ERA in 2023 and also missed about three months due to shoulder discomfort.

France was fairly solid in his 24 outings, with a 3.83 ERA, though he might be due for some regression himself. He only struck out 17.4% of batters faced with a .289 BABIP and 76.7% strand rate, leading to a 4.66 FIP and 4.96 SIERA. Bielak also had a 3.83 ERA last year in his 15 outings, though also with concerning peripherals. Though his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong, both his 17.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were subpar. His 76.2% strand rate may have helped him out, which is why his 5.19 FIP and 5.02 SIERA weren’t as pretty.

Those are generally adequate options for a club to have at the back of a rotation, particularly when the front is so strong. But as Brown alluded to, injuries will happen and there’s always room for more pitching. Bielak is out of options, so perhaps he could get bumped into a relief role if the club were to find another starter somewhere.

How much ability they have to pursue external additions will be an interesting variable. The club has generally been reluctant to pay the competitive balance tax but came into this offseason right near the line and then blew past it when they signed Hader. Per Roster Resource, their CBT number is currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM and nearing the second tier of $257MM. Getting another pitcher of significance, unless via some sort of cash neutral trade, would surely involve pushing over that line and incurring a higher rate of taxation. The free agent market features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, McTaggart also relayed some video of new manager Joe Espada, answering a question about Yordan Álvarez playing the outfield. “I think that Yordan could play more left,” Espada said. “I’m going to try to put him more in left field because I think it’s important for us to open up the DH spot a little bit more for some other guys to get some more rest. I think when Yordan is healthy and he’s moving around really well, I think he plays a good enough left field for us. But also, I really want to keep that DH spot open to give some guys, you know, get them off their feet and keep their bats in the lineup.” When asked specifically about catcher Yainer Diaz, he affirmed that Diaz would be a guy he’d like to keep in the lineup even when he’s getting a day off from catching.

Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball, having hit .295/.390/.588 in his career for a wRC+ of 166, and will be in the lineup as much as possible. But injuries have been an issue from time to time. He missed almost all of the 2020 season due to right knee discomfort. Hand inflammation sent him to the injured list in 2022 and he dealt with an oblique issue last year. As he has battled those issues, his time in the field has never been huge. Thus far, he has topped out at 467 2/3 innings over 56 games in 2022.

Moving him out of the designated hitter slot more often would open more time there for other guys, as Espada mentioned, but it would come with the risk of stretching Álvarez. More time in the field increases the chances of suffering an injury. Meanwhile, the defensive metrics are split on how capable he is with the glove. He’s logged three Defensive Runs Saved thus far in his career but Outs Above Average has him at a -10.

But if he were to head out to the grass a bit more often, it could benefit someone like Diaz. The young backstop is in line to get a lot of playing time anyway after hitting 23 home runs last year, but no catcher starts every game. J.T. Realmuto led the league with 130 starts behind the dish last year with no one else topping 116. That means there will certainly be days where Victor Caratini is donning the tools of ignorance and Diaz would need the DH slot to get into the lineup.

If Álvarez were to play left field more often, that could cut into the playing time of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers. The Astros will have Kyle Tucker in right field the vast majority of the time, leaving only position for that duo if Álvarez is in left. Both are capable of playing center but Brown said in December that the club was planning to give Meyers a shot at the regular center field job with McCormick the regular in left.

Meyers has strong defensive grades but has hit just .235/.296/.379 in his career thus far for a wRC+ of 88. McCormick’s defense isn’t graded quite as strong but he’s still above average, and with much better offensive output. He’s hit .259/.336/.449 overall for a wRC+ of 120. Pushing Álvarez to the outfield more often would have to squeeze one of them out. Brown also said last month that the club is open to add a left-handed hitting outfielder, with both Meyers and McCormick hitting from the right side.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Beyond the contract dispute, Ghiroli adds that Ng and the club were at odds over personnel decisions regarding the front office, the largest of which was ownership’s previously-reported desire to put a president of baseball operations in place above Ng in the organization’s hierarchy, a move that would effectively be a demotion for Ng. Aside from that, Ghiroli notes that Ng had plans for personnel changes regarding leadership-level positions in the club’s scouting and player development departments, which owner Bruce Sherman opposed.

Ghiroli adds that Ng’s next steps are currently uncertain. While there are GM-level openings in both Queens and Boston at the moment, any GM hired in New York would serve under president of baseball operations David Stearns, creating a similar situation to the one Ng sought to avoid in Miami. Meanwhile, Boston’s GM search has seen a number of high-profile candidates decline to interview for the position, with Ghiroli citing the influence of manager Alex Cora and the club’s proclivity for changes at the head of the baseball operations department as potential pitfalls in accepting the job. One possibility Ghiroli floats is a return to the White Sox, where she began her career in professional baseball and served as a member of the front office for seven seasons. Though the club recently promoted Chris Getz to the role of GM, Ghiroli notes the possibility that the club could have interest in Ng as a president of baseball operations to oversee Getz and the rest of Chicago’s front office.

More notes from around the league…

• Yordan Alvarez is recovering from a virus, Astros manager Dusty Baker revealed to reporters (including Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic). His symptoms include a headache and an upset stomach, although Baker declined to discuss the exact details of his star slugger’s illness. The skipper said Alvarez was “better today than he was yesterday” and downplayed the significance of the virus, saying “I got a virus, everybody got a virus. So he’s fine.” While Alvarez had a difficult game last night, going hitless with three strikeouts, he hit two home runs off during today’s 5-4 loss to the Rangers. In the event Alvarez does wind up needing a day off at some point in the series, Yainer Diaz and Jon Singleton are among the club’s options who could fill in for the slugger as the team’s DH.
• According to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays sent scouts to the Dominican Republic recently to observe a workout by Cuban free agent righty Yariel Rodriguez. They were far from alone on that excursion, however, with Topkin adding that fourteen other teams were present to scout Rodriguez. Rodriguez was reportedly released from his NPB contract earlier this month and appears to be in line to test MLB free agency this offseason. Rodriguez did not pitch professionally outside of the World Baseball Classic this year, though in 2022 he was a dominant relief arm for the Chunichi Dragons as he posted a 1.15 ERA in 56 appearances while striking out 27.5% of batters faced.

Brown told reporters on Thursday (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that Brantley felt “good enough to be on the roster,” and that the five-time All-Star would be “playable throughout the postseason.” Meanwhile, Baker was prepared to take anything he could get from Brantley, “Whether we get him for two games, one game, or whatever.”

While “playable” isn’t the same thing as “no limitations,” the ultimate takeaway is that Brantley feels healthy enough to merit a spot on the 26-man postseason roster. The left-fielder/DH missed the first five months of the season with a shoulder injury, and even after he returned, the pain had not entirely disappeared. He sat out for ten days in mid-September, appearing in only three of the Astros’ final 12 games. His numbers in 2023 were passable but uninspiring; he finished with a .724 OPS in 57 trips to the plate.

However, if he really is back to full strength, Brantley could be a difference-maker in the ALDS. The last time he was fully healthy, he slashed .288/.370/.416 with a 127 wRC+ over the first three months of the 2022 campaign. He has been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching throughout his career, and the Twins – Houston’s ALDS opponents – have an all right-handed starting rotation.

Here are some other updates from the postseason teams in the AL West:

• In more Astros news, Yordan Alvarez confirmed to reporters (including Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) that the elbow pain he was dealing with in September is no longer a concern. The slugger hit .293/.441/.620 during the final month of the season, earning AL Player of the Month honors for his efforts. However, he started in left field only twice over the final two weeks as he dealt with discomfort in his elbow. Evidently, that minor injury issue is a problem no more. While Alvarez isn’t a strong outfield defender, his ability to play the field gives Dusty Baker added flexibility when filling out the lineup card. For instance, the DH spot could give Brantley some time off his feet or backup catcher Yainer Diaz an opportunity to get in the lineup more frequently.
• Across the state, Rangers starter Max Scherzer continues taking steps toward a potential return this postseason. As GM Chris Young told Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, Scherzer could attempt to throw to live hitters today, which would be another promising sign of progress for the veteran. He threw a bullpen session on Wednesday, and it is encouraging that he feels strong enough to throw again two days later. Until quite recently, the chances of Scherzing pitching again in 2023 seemed slim. Over the past few weeks, however, the 39-year-old has advanced to a point where it doesn’t seem impossible he could play a role in the ALDS. Still, the Rangers continue to urge caution. “I’m not getting ahead of ourselves,” Young said. “We will see where he is tomorrow and go from there.”

Brantley’s absence would normally be expected to allow Yordan Alvarez to move into left field, freeing up the DH spot for a bat like rookie catcher Yainer Diaz. Things aren’t quite that simple, however, as Alvarez is dealing with injury issues of his own. The slugger told reporters, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, recently that he hasn’t been able to play the field recently after “feeling something” in his elbow earlier in the month while swinging the bat. The incident has left the Astros acting cautiously with their superstar slugger, who has slashed .293/.410/.578 in 106 games with the club this year. While Rome notes that Alvarez was taking fly balls and throwing in the outfield before today’s game, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed yesterday that Baker is still trying to avoid using Alvarez in the outfield during games.

With Brantley unavailable and Alvarez seemingly restricted to DH, the club figures to rely on the services of Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon in the outfield for the time being. With Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field on an everyday bases and both Meyers and Dubon grading out as solid center fielders defensively, the unfortunate injury situation with Brantley and Alvarez has nonetheless allowed the Astros to improve their outfield defense by moving Chas McCormick into left field rather than utilizing him in center.

More from the AL West…

• Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson saw his season come to an end today, as the club placed him on the 15-day IL with left knee soreness (as noted by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) following today’s game against the Twins. Anderson was poised to start tomorrow’s game for Anaheim, though no replacement starter has been announced to this point. Anderson’s first year with the Angels was a difficult one, as the lefty posted a 5.43 ERA and 4.93 FIP in 141 innings of work. Anderson signed a three-year, $39MM deal with the club early last offseason after posting a fantastic season in 2022 with the Dodgers.
• Sticking with the Angels, Bollinger also relays that third baseman Anthony Rendon isn’t expected to return from the injured list this season, according to club manager Phil Nevin. 2023 will go down as yet another injury-marred campaign for the veteran third baseman, who has been on the shelf since early July with a shin injury and has played just 148 games since the start of the 2021 campaign. Rendon, who slashed .236/.361/.318 with a wRC+ of 95 in 183 trips to the plate this year, has three years and roughly $116MM left on his contract with the club headed into 2024.
• The Mariners have been without catcher Tom Murphy for over a month due to a thumb fracture and was shut down from baseball activity earlier in September due to the issue. While that diagnosis put the remainder of his 2023 in doubt, it’s possible that there’s reason for optimism regarding Murphy’s ability to return this year, at least in the event that Seattle makes it to the postseason. MLB.com notes that Murphy was poised to undergo an MRI yesterday to determine whether he could resume baseball activities, though no update has been provided regarding the catcher’s status at this point. Murphy’s hit exceptionally well in a back-up role this year behind Cal Raleigh, with a .290/.335/.538 slash line in 159 trips to the plate this year. The club has recently been relying on Luis Torrens as their second catcher in Murphy’s absence.

Brantley’s recovery from last summer’s shoulder surgery hasn’t been as smooth as hoped. The five-time All-Star began the season on the injured list, leaving rookie Corey Julks to assume the LF/DH hybrid role alongside Alvarez. Julks has had some good stretches of play but been equally prone to extended slumps. He owns a .245/.299/.353 line in his first 86 big league contests and is currently in Triple-A.

Various setbacks have continued to keep Brantley out of action all season. When Alvarez suffered an oblique strain in mid-June — an injury that’d cost him six weeks — it looked as if the outfield and/or DH could be a problem. Not only has that not been the case, Houston’s outfield has thrived.

Since Alvarez first went on the IL on June 9, Houston outfielders are hitting .281/.370/.504 in 745 trips to the plate. They trail only the Braves’ group in on-base percentage and slugging. They’re third in on-base and sixth in slugging if one also includes DH production (where Alvarez would obviously have seen some time had he been healthy for that entire stretch).

In large part, that’s thanks to Tucker. He’ll find his name on MVP ballots for a third consecutive season. The star right fielder has raked at a .323/.410/.610 clip over that stretch and is hitting .297/.377/.526 overall. Alvarez has picked up where he’d left off since returning on July 26, putting up a .282/.378/.521 mark in 19 games.

It isn’t just the established superstars though. McCormick was a quietly productive player over his first two big league seasons and has found a new gear in 2023. Over 313 plate appearances, he owns a .288/.378/.539 batting line. Of the 215 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, McCormick ranks 18th in OBP and 12th in slugging. He has been on a particular tear of late, with a .317/.410/.593 slash since June 9.

McCormick’s strikeout and walk rates aren’t much different from his prior two seasons. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage haven’t changed and he’s unlikely to maintain a .363 average on balls in play. Yet his uptick in production isn’t entirely about batted ball fortune. McCormick is hitting for more power than he did in his first two seasons, at least in part reflecting a conscious change in his offensive approach.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently chatted with the right-handed hitter about a mechanical tweak he’d made to become more upright in his stance. The goal was to open his front shoulder slightly in order to allow him to become more pull-oriented. McCormick has always had raw power, but an extreme opposite-field approach muted some of that production. Pulled fly balls clear the fence at a much higher rate than flies to center or the opposite field. Few hitters pulled the ball in the air less often than McCormick between 2021-22. That didn’t stop him from being a good player, but it left some power potential on the table (particularly with the Crawford boxes only 315 feet down the left field line in Houston).

The change certainly seems to be paying off. His rate of pulled fly balls this season is nearly twice that of the previous two years. While he’s not hitting the ball harder overall, his average exit velocity on fly balls specifically is a personal high. The production has followed. Even if his BABIP takes a step back, McCormick should be a better offensive player than he’d been over his first two seasons and certainly looks deserving of everyday playing time.

Lately, that has mostly come in left field. Brantley could soon cut into those corner outfield reps. The veteran began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday. Barring another setback, he could rejoin the big league club within the next two weeks. Skipper Dusty Baker will likely carefully monitor Brantley’s workload to ease the stress on his shoulder, but a healthy Brantley can be a key table-setter and adds a left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Houston lineup.

McCormick can play center field, so Meyers’ playing time might be most adversely impacted by Brantley’s expected return. Meyers isn’t having a great offensive season, hitting .227/.303/.385 over 304 trips to the plate. He started the year well, but unlike Tucker and McCormick, he has struggled at the dish going back to the beginning of June. Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder, though. In 710 1/3 innings this season, he has rated between six and eight runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast. (In his career, he’s been between 13 and 18 runs above average over 1406 frames.) Plugging Brantley in left, pushing McCormick to center, and moving Meyers to the bench should improve the lineup but will downgrade the defense.

It’s an enviable “problem” to have. Potentially juggling four starting-caliber outfielders helps Houston’s chances of tracking down their in-state rivals in a closely contested AL West. There’s likely to be some degree of concern about Brantley’s shoulder holding up down the stretch. Perhaps he or Alvarez could rotate through first base on occasion, at least while José Abreu is out. However Baker manages it, the outfield looks like a strength for the Astros as they enter the home stretch. And, with each of Alvarez (signed through 2028), Tucker (controlled through 2025), McCormick (controlled through 2026) and Meyers (controlled through 2027) standing as long-term pieces, their outfield outlook looks increasingly bright.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.