The news comes after a lengthy period of speculation earlier this offseason that Molina would be returning to St. Louis in some capacity, including suggestions that Molina could join manager Oliver Marmol’s coaching staff as bench coach. The #2 job in the dugout eventually went to former Cardinals infielder Daniel Descalso, leading Molina to rejoin the Cardinals in his current role. Molina has been candid in recent years about his hopes of becoming a big league manager at some point, and his return to the Cardinals organization just one year after his retirement from playing is sure to spur speculation regarding the future of Marmol, who the team has not engaged in extension talks with prior to the final year of his current contract.

Looking beyond the club’s reunion with Molina, the club’s willingness to move outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been well-documented this offseason, with Mozeliak previously indicating that the club hopes to bolster its bullpen in return for O’Neill’s services. Ben Fredrickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested in a live chat with readers yesterday that the Royals are among the teams with interest in O’Neill this offseason. While it might register as a surprise that the Royals would be interested in a rental player coming off a 101-loss season in 2023, the club’s outfielders slashed a pathetic .229/.293/.392 last season, leaving them with an 82 wRC+ that registered as the worst among all major league clubs.

Given that dearth of production, the Royals are perhaps better situated than most clubs to roll the dice on O’Neill, a 28-year-old slugger who flashed elite power and defense during a 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 in 537 trips to the plate while finishing in the top ten of NL MVP voting. Unfortunately for both O’Neill and the Cardinals, things have taken a turn for the worse since then. Injuries and under-performance have plagued O’Neill the past two seasons, as the slugger has slashed a mediocre .229/.310/.397 (98 wRC+) in just 168 games over the past two seasons.

O’Neill is something of an odd trade candidate thanks to his combination of youth, upside, limited team control and recent struggles. It’s easy to see why Kansas City may be particularly interested in his services, however. O’Neill could be offered consistent playing time on the lowly Royals next season, with Kansas City able to offer the struggling slugger plenty of runway to re-establish himself as a quality bat. If O’Neill is successful in doing so, he could be a valuable asset for the club to flip at the trade deadline next summer in the event the Royals find themselves out of the race by midseason.

O’Neill isn’t the only Cardinals outfielder who could be on the trade block this offseason, as Mozeliak spoke to reporters (including John Denton of MLB.com) about the future of young outfielder Alec Burleson, who has reportedly drawn trade interest in recent days. Mozeliak seemed to be more reluctant to part with Burleson than O’Neill, saying that the club “definitely like[s]” Burleson and that they “think there’s a spot for him” on the club’s 2024 roster. That said, Mozeliak acknowledged the fact that regular playing time is unlikely to be available for Burleson as things currently stand, noting that “something else might have to happen first” in order for Burleson to get everyday at bats next season. Burleson struggled in 347 trips to the plate last season with a tepid slash line of just .244/.300/.390, but the 25-year-old youngster isn’t far removed from his days as a top-100 prospect in the sport.

After finishing the 2023 season with a 71-91 record, good for last place in the NL Central, there is no denying that the Cardinals need to spend in free agency if they hope to contend in 2024. That doesn’t mean the team is going to spend recklessly, however, as Mozeliak said they plan to be “prudent” with their expenditures. More specifically, he explained that the Cardinals will likely operate with a similar payroll next season as they planned to run this past year before selling off several veterans at the trade deadline. That means they have about $44MM to work with this winter (per Denton), although one would think they’d be willing to go slightly above that number for the right player. After all, sometimes the prudent move is to spend a little bit extra to land the best free agent targets.

The Cardinals have made it clear that starting pitching is their top priority, and for good reason. Their starters finished with the third-worst ERA and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the National League last season, and their numbers only got worse after the rotation lost Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline.

In August, Mozeliak said he planned to bring in three new starters this offseason. He essentially repeated that sentiment on Monday, although he specified that he’s looking for two full-time starters, plus “someone that can maybe split roles.” The Cardinals already have veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz penciled into the rotation for 2024. They also have several talented young arms waiting in the wings, including former first-round picks Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore, trade deadline acquisition Drew Rom, and top prospects Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy. None of those pitchers is quite ready to be trusted with an Opening Day job on the starting staff, but Mozeliak is hoping that at least a few of them will pitch “meaningful” big league innings in 2024.

There is rarely such thing as too much pitching depth, but still, if the Cardinals were to add three bona fide starters this winter, they could end up with a logjam in the rotation. That would mean limited opportunities for their young arms, and the Cardinals aren’t going to mortgage the future of the rotation for short-term gains in 2024.

With that in mind, it’s understandable why Mozeliak is interested in adding a hybrid starter/reliever who could pitch in the rotation if need be but could easily step aside if a more promising pitcher forces the issue. Nick Martinez is the most intriguing arm who fits that description, while other options on the open market include Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, Jakob Junis, and Alex Wood.

In terms of additions beyond the roster, Mozeliak also answered questions regarding Yadier Molina, the beloved former Cardinal who is expected to join the coaching staff in 2024, and Chaim Bloom, the former Red Sox executive who has been connected to the Cardinals in recent days. Mozeliak could not offer much of an update on Molina, although he confirmed that the two sides remain engaged in conversations about the nine-time Gold Glove winner’s role next season. He is “hopeful” Molina will join the organization in some capacity.

As for Bloom, Mozeliak mostly avoided the question, although he did reveal that he has had “some discussions” with individuals from “outside the organization” about potentially coming on as an advisor to the front office. The long-time Cardinals executive explained that he wants to have “someone from the outside look at the inside.” Mozeliak has been the team’s chief baseball decision-maker since 2007, so it certainly makes sense that he’s seeking a fresh perspective from someone new to the organization.

In terms of his coaching future in general, Molina said “I see myself managing, coaching in the United States for a few years.  I like it.  I am a guy that is fascinated with baseball, and I am passionate about it.  To have an opportunity like that I cannot pass….St. Louis has given me the opportunity.  It is my second home.  There is always a good relationship and communication with them.  They are trying to guide me to that way, in the matter of being a coach.  They have their staff who have a good job with the team.  It would be an opportunity that it will be hard to say no to.  I love St. Louis.”

More from the NL Central…

• In other Cardinals news, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covered a wide slate of questions related to the Cards in his recent chat with readers, including the possibility of Jordan Hicks and Phil Maton being free agents targets for the team this winter.  The Cardinals traded Hicks to the Blue Jays at the deadline, but with Hicks headed back to the open market, “there will be a conversation about a reunion” in St. Louis, Goold writes.  Maton could also be “a name to watch,” both due to his ability and perhaps due to some local ties, as Maton went to high school about 90 minutes away from St. Louis in Chatham, Illinois.
• Unsurprisingly, the Cubs will retain Dustin Kelly as their chief hitting coach next season, according to Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Chicago’s lineup made big improvements in 2023, Kelly’s first season on the staff, and his presence might help stop what has been a revolving door of Cubs hitting coaches over the last decade.  Sharma/Mooney provide some insight into how Kelly and his three assistant coaches were able to provide more specialized instruction to hitters, keeping communication strong while trying to marry a batter’s personal style to a broader approach.  “We come up with team principles that we want to execute.  But they still have to go up there and have their at-bat and stick to their strengths,” Kelly said back in September.
• The Pirates are still planning to give Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis regular reps at catcher next season, though Davis barely saw any time behind the plate after making his MLB debut last season, instead playing mostly as a right fielder.  With some lack of clarity of how the playing time will be split up, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines that the Pirates should just keep Rodriguez at catcher and Davis in right field, as both players might benefit from a clear focus on one position.  Rodriguez spent some time as a first baseman, second baseman, and outfielder in the minors, while Davis’ right field defense was shaky enough that he’ll likely need more offseason work to make himself a passable option at the position.

Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.

Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.

If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.

More from around MLB’s central divisions:

• The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff.  Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
• The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.

Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.

His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.

Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.

There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.

Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake’s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.

It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.

Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.

Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.

One of the most important free agents for the Cardinals is 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who didn’t appear during the Cardinal’s Wild Card series. Wainwright, a rotation stalwart for the Cardinals since 2007, signed a 1-year, $17.5MM extension for the 2022 season on the heels of a strong 2020 and 2021 season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 272 innings. He followed those strong numbers in 2022 with a 3.71 ERA in 191 2/3 innings, following his trademark of limiting hard contact (87.8 MPH average exit velocity, 36.6 HardHit%). However, he was hit hard over his last five starts, giving up 35 hits and 19 runs over his last 23 2/3 innings.

Wainwright has yet to officially announce whether he will return for the 2023 season, but hinted that he has decided on his status, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Regardless, Wainwright is expected to release something soon, with the veteran saying postgame that “we should know pretty soon if something happens … if not, then it’s been a good run.” The 17-year veteran added that he did not “like not pitching in a playoff season,” before coyly saying that fans could take the statement one of two ways, “as it’s been a good run” or “as a motivation to never let that happen again,” per Goold.

The Cardinals’ other high-profile free agent Nolan Arenado is technically under contract through the 2027 season; however, he can opt out this offseason. Acquired from the Rockies in February 2021, Arenado has posted back-to-back All-Star seasons with the Cardinals, slashing a combined .273/.335/.513 while playing superb defense at the hot corner (30 Outs Above Average). Arenado’s 2022 season has been particularly strong, batting .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and 15 Outs Above Average.

Arenado has $144MM and five years remaining on his current contract, but he would be the clear-cut top third basemen on the free agent market. For his part, Arenado has previously stated that he’s “not opting out” and that he “will be coming back,” per Goold. He followed up these comments after yesterday’s game saying, “I love it here. I love the guys. I just feel like I fit well with this orgnaization.” Nevertheless, the seven-time All-Star will be 37 at the end of his current contract and may opt to find a longer agreement.

Elsewhere on the Cardinals, 19-year veteran Yadier Molina and 22-year veteran Albert Pujols are set to retire with the close of the 2022 season. Both legends in Cardinals’ lore, the duo won World Series titles with the Cardinals in 2006 and 2011, among numerous other awards throughout their careers. In a fitting moment, both players laced singles in their final at-bats at Busch Stadium.

It seems clear that Maddon didn’t feel this balance existed in Anaheim.  In general, Maddon felt the Angels’ “infrastructure needs to be improved….It’s the non-sexy stuff that has to get better. It’s not just bright, shiny objects — they have that.  They need to do the infrastructure better in order to get to where we had been in the past.”  Maddon also implied that the front office tried to have too much of an influence on baseball decisions, thus trying to turn the manager into a “middle man” rather than an actual leader in the clubhouse.

“It’s at the point where some GM should really just put a uniform on and go down to the dugout, or their main analytical membrane, he should go down to the dugout….And what happens is when the performance isn’t what they think it should be, it’s never about the acquisitional process,” Maddon said.  “It’s always about the inability of coaches and managers to get the best out of a player.  And that’s where this tremendous disconnect is formed.”

More from around the baseball world…

• The Cardinals placed Yadier Molina on the restricted list today, and called up catcher Ivan Herrera from Triple-A to take Molina’s place on the active roster.  Molina is away for “business reasons” in Puerto Rico, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, and the longtime catcher is expected to return to the Cardinals on Monday.  Goold notes that the pro basketball team Molina owns is playing in the finals of the Baloncesto Superior Nacional championship, Puerto Rico’s top league.  While seemingly an unusual reason to take time off during the season, Molina’s absence probably amounts to one game at most, as the catcher played on Friday and wouldn’t have played in both weekend games against the Diamondbacks.
• X-rays were negative on Teoscar Hernandez’s left foot after the Blue Jays outfielder fouled a ball off his foot in the eighth inning of today’s 5-2 win over the Yankees.  Hernandez was replaced in right field for the bottom half of the eighth inning.  While it appears as though Hernandez has avoided any serious injury, it seems likely that he’ll miss Sunday’s game, thus leaving the Jays even more shorthanded in the outfield.  George Springer has been limited to DH duty since returning from the injured list, and Springer has also missed the last two games due to a sore right knee after a wayward foul ball of his own on Thursday.  While Toronto has outfield depth on the bench, the lineup would be hurt if both Hernandez and Springer each have to miss more time.
• Drew Gilbert’s first pro season is already over due to a dislocation in his right elbow, the Astros announced.  (Hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.)  Gilbert hasn’t played since August 13, when he suffered a forearm contusion after a collision with the outfield wall in a game for the Astros’ A-ball affiliate.  However, according to the team, a further medical exam revealed that Gilbert “had sustained a dislocated right elbow that spontaneously went back into place before he was examined.”  The 21-year-old Gilbert was the 28th overall pick of the 2022 draft, and MLB Pipeline already ranks the University of Tennessee product as the second-best prospect in the Astros’ farm system.

Romine had a brief stint on the Cards roster. He signed a minor league deal in mid-June and was selected onto the big league club in early July. The 33-year-old appeared in 11 games while backing up Andrew Knizner in Molina’s absence. In addition to three games earlier in the year with the Angels, Romine has tallied 37 plate appearances of .176/.222/.206 hitting. He’s been much better through 16 Triple-A games, hitting .291/.350/.382.

An 11-year MLB veteran, Romine will presumably find himself on waivers over the next few days. He’s a .236/.275/.354 hitter between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs, Angels and Cardinals. Clubs are always on the hunt for veteran catching depth, so it stands to reason Romine will catch on somewhere shortly. Even if he passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll have the right to elect free agency and seek out other minor league opportunities.

“There’s definitely some serious inflammation in there,” O’Neill told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “At least there was [Thursday] but it’s gone down a good bit.  The next 48 to 72 hours are going to be key for me.”

O’Neill remained in the game after being hit, and while he will undergo more tests on his wrist, initial x-rays were negative.  Even if the wrist problem does end up being relatively minor, it still represents another setback in an injury-plagued year for O’Neill, who has played in only 45 games due to his hamstring injury and a previous shoulder problem that also required a visit to the injured list.  O’Neill has hit only .241/.292/.361 over 185 plate appearances, a big step backwards after his breakout 2021 campaign.

Harrison Bader’s return is also questionable, as manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) today that Bader likely wouldn’t return from the IL until after the All-Star break.  Bader has already missed more than the minimum 10 days due to plantar fasciitis, and while he is participating in some “light baseball drills,” the outfielder is wearing a protective walking boot when not training.

Bader “needs to be close to it where he feels like he can explode, hold his back side when he’s hitting and not feeling like he’s compromised defensively,” Marmol said.  “The heel is still grabbing at him.  Not nearly as much, but if he ramps up, he might be back at ground zero.”

Without Bader and O’Neill, Dylan Carlson is the only player remaining from the Cardinals’ first-choice starting outfield.  Dickerson’s return will help fill the void, and the emergence of rookies Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez has allowed the Cards to further make up for those lost regulars.  However, St. Louis was certainly for O’Neill to perhaps help spark a struggling lineup, as the Cardinals have been shut out four times in their past seven games (including today’s 1-0 loss to the Phillies).

Yadier Molina is another missing regular, as the catcher went on the IL due to knee soreness in mid-June.  In the latest update on Molina’s condition, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including the Belleville News-Democrat’s Jeff Jones) that Molina isn’t yet ready to start baseball activities, though the catcher did say he is making some progress.

Even if DeJong were to take a step forward and get into a nice groove, it will be difficult for him to force his way back to the big leagues due to the success of those already there. John Mozeliak, the team’s president of baseball operations, spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about the situation recently. “The way Tommy Edman’s playing, and we’re getting a lot of production out of our second basemen, (DeJong) is going to have to hit his way back,” Mozeliak said. “It’s really been a situation where he would go down, get himself right and then come back. In the meantime, there’s been a little bit of a Wally Pipp situation where the players who have taken over those positions have been thriving.” For those unfamiliar, Wally Pipp was a Yankees first baseman who was once replaced by Lou Gehrig, who then went on to play 2,130 consecutive games. Since then, Pipp’s name has become synonymous with a player’s job being stolen and never relinquished.

As Mozeliak mentioned, Edman is indeed playing well. The positional switch doesn’t seem to have slowed him down at all, as Statcast currently pegs him as having provided five Outs Above Average at both second base and shortstop, totaling ten on the season. DRS and UZR are similarly bullish on his glovework at both positions. At the plate, he’s hitting .274/.347/.407 for a wRC+ of 119. That’s just shy of the 124 from his rookie season and much better than the 91 he posted in each of the past two seasons.

As for the second basemen that were alluded to, since Edman moved to primary shortstop duty, the keystone has been manned by rookies Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman. Both of them are having great seasons at the plate, with Donovan hitting .311/.422/.416 for a wRC+ of 146 and Gorman slashing .255/.317/.455 for a wRC+ of 120. With the Cards getting that type of production from their middle infield, it’s understandable that they’re going to making DeJong show another gear before giving him another shot. DeJong is turning 29 in August and still under contract through 2023 at a $9MM salary. There are also club options for 2024 and 2025, at $12.5MM and $15MM, though those seem sure to be bought out, barring a major turnaround in the meantime.

Elsewhere on the roster, Mozeliak notes that Steven Matz has recuperated from his shoulder issues enough to throw a bullpen session and seems lined up to start a rehab assignment on Tuesday. Signed to a four-year, $44MM contract in the offseason, Matz has only been able to make nine starts so far, with diminished results. His 6.03 ERA is certainly unsightly, but there’s likely some misfortune in there. Matz actually improved his strikeout and walk rates compared to last year, but has a .350 BABIP, 67% strand rate and 21.1% HR/FB rate, all of those being worse than his career averages. As such, all of the advanced metrics believe him to be much better than that ERA, with xFIP going so far as to place him at 2.98. When Matz returns, he will likely join Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson in the rotation, leaving Andre Pallante as the odd man out. Pallante has a 2.03 ERA through 48 2/3 innings thanks to a healthy 62.7% ground ball rate. However, his 15% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate are both worse than league average, with a .282 BABIP and 91.3% strand rate helping him keep that ERA down.

One member of the team who doesn’t seem close to a return, however, is franchise catcher Yadier Molina. Hummel relays that he has returned to his home in Puerto Rico while rehabbing his knee, with no timetable for his return. Turning 40 in a just over two weeks, Molina has already declared that this will be his final season. However, knee soreness has limited his production to a line of .213/.225/.294 on the year for a 47 wRC+. Andrew Knizner has gotten the bulk of playing time in his absence, though he’s hitting just .185/.281/.244 on the season for a 60 wRC+. With just over a month to go until the trade deadline, the health of Molina’s knees and the status of Knizner’s bat could compel the team to consider outside options before the August 2 cutoff.

Molina, 39, is a career-long Cardinal, having been drafted by the team in the year 2000. In August of last year, he and the team agreed to a one-year, $10MM extension, with Molina announcing the next day that 2022 would be his final season. It hasn’t exactly been the dream season that he and the club likely hoped for, as he has slumped to a .213/.225/.294 batting line on the campaign so far. That amounts to a wRC+ of just 47, though it seems quite likely that the knee issues are having an impact on that, as Woo reports that he’s been dealing with this soreness all year.

According to the report, Molina received multiple cortisone shots last weekend to try and quell the soreness. While the club wanted a 48-hour grace period to let the shots take effect, Molina evidently lobbied his way out of the confines of that timetable. He then caught games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, though apparently the issue hasn’t abated enough for him to continue playing.

With Molina on the shelf, the Cardinals will now turn to a couple of other options for catching duties, both of which come with unknowns. Andrew Knizner has formed the other part of the club’s catching tandem this year, though hasn’t impressed much, producing a .198/.283/.257 line, 63 wRC+. Woo spoke to Cardinals manager Oli Marmol about Knizner’s disappointing results so far, despite getting more playing time with Molina’s knee issues. “When you’re backing up Yadi in the previous years, that’s tough,” Marmol said. “Now that (Knizner) is actually in there three times a week, four times a week, the expectations are no longer ‘trying to find my timing.’ You’re getting a real opportunity, so the expectations are different. He knows that. Now, he’s just got to get going.”

Joining Knizner on the roster will be Herrera, who is considered by many to be one of the top 100 prospects in baseball by FanGraphs, Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. He was briefly called up to the big leagues earlier this year when Molina went on the bereavement list, but got into just one game and didn’t make a plate appearance. Apart from that, he’s spent the year in Triple-A, putting up an impressive .291/.388/.436 line for a 125 wRC+. He’ll now get a proper chance to see if he can carry his skills over to the majors, though it’s quite common for prospects to struggle in their first tastes of major league action, even the highly-regarded ones.

This situation now presents a big unknown for the Cardinals that will need to be resolved in the coming weeks. The club is currently atop the NL Central division standings with a 37-28 record, though it’s far from a secure perch. They are just a game and a half ahead of a Brewers team that is one game behind the Giants for the final Wild Card spot, coming into tonight. With the trade deadline now just six weeks away, the Cards will have to decide if their in-house options are sufficient enough to carry them through the final few months of the season. Of course, much of that will depend on how Molina’s knees recover and how Knizner and Herrera fare over the next stretch of play, though if none of that trio seem capable of taking the job, it’s possible the Cards will have to look for outside help.

Any injury to a pitcher’s throwing arm can be a cause for concern, with the terminology of “forearm strain” often being particularly frightening as it can be a precursor to Tommy John surgery. However, the details coming from the club suggest that they aren’t pressing any alarm buttons just yet. Hicks tells reporters, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, that it feels minor compared to his previous injuries, categorizing it as normal soreness that occurs for starting pitchers between outings. (Hicks underwent Tommy John in 2019.) He doesn’t seem to be anticipating a lengthy absence, as he tells Jones that he expects to be back this season, either as a starter or a reliever, depending on the team’s situation in the long run.

Due to injuries to Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes, the Cardinals had a rotation need to begin the year and decided to transition Hicks from reliever to starter, stretching him out as the season went along. The results haven’t been eye-popping so far, with the fireballer currently sporting a 5.02 ERA over 28 2/3 innings, along with a 23% strikeout rate, 15.9% walk rate and 55.6% grounder rate.

Flaherty and Reyes are both still on the IL and were recently joined by Steven Matz. Prospect Matthew Liberatore has been called up and seems to have taken over a spot in the rotation for now, alongside Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas. That still leaves them shorthanded, and the Cards are playing 12 games in the next 11 days thanks to a June 4 doubleheader. Packy Naughton has already been with the big league club this year and could be recalled to help out. Angel Rondon had a good outing for the club earlier this week but was optioned the next day, May 23. Pitchers must stay in the minors for 15 days after being optioned, unless replacing a player going on the IL or if they are acting as the 27th man for a doubleheader. Woodford, recalled today, has made two Triple-A starts this year, though logging only three innings in each of them.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals are planning a one-year extension offer for their longtime ace, whenever he’s ready, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Molina is already locked in for 2022 — his final season before retirement. There are not sufficient superlatives to quantify Wainwright’s standing in baseball, but even isolating his contributions this year, he’s one of the most reliable starters in the game: 27 starts, 176 innings, 2.91 ERA, 3.6 fWAR. The 40-year-old amazingly ranks third in the Majors in innings pitched, behind only Zack Wheeler and Walker Buehler.

In terms of the Cardinals’ other ace, Jack Flaherty could return this season in a bullpen/piggyback role, notes Goold. Just a few weeks ago it seemed that the prudent call would be to shut Flaherty down for the year, but with a wild card spot very much in play, Flaherty could still make an impact. An oblique injury put Flaherty on the 60-day injured list earlier, but after a brief return, he went back on the shelf with a shoulder strain. His return could be a huge boon to the Cardinals in September if he’s able to come back firing on all cylinders.

Junior Fernandez, however, has been shut down for the year with a Grade 2 right lat strain, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter). The injury will not require surgery, and Fernandez should have no problem getting ready for 2022. The 24-year-old has made 18 appearances out of the pen, tossed 20 2/3 innings, and logged a 5.66 ERA/5.14 FIP.

That was the expectation the moment the deal was finalized, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak even called the 2022 campaign Molina’s final season in the team’s press release announcing the extension. Still, it’s notable to hear the player himself publicly confirm as much.

Molina, 39, is well past his peak production but is still delivering offense that falls roughly in line with that of a league-average catcher. He’s batting .259/.304/.375 with eight homers and 16 doubles so far in 2021, walking at a 5.7 percent clip and still striking out at a 15.7 percent rate that is well south of the league average. His 43 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish is among the best in the game.

It was strange this past offseason to consider the possibility of Molina playing somewhere other than St. Louis, but he reached the free-agent market for the first time in his illustrious career and unsurprisingly drew interest from several clubs. He’ll avoid any speculation of playing for a new club this time around, cementing himself as a lifelong Cardinal with the extension and today’s announcement.

Notably, as Cardinals fans now turn their attention to Adam Wainwright, Molina touched on the subject of his longtime teammate’s future (Twitter link via Zachary Silver of MLB.com). Molina noted that Wainwright lobbied heavily for him to return to St. Louis last offseason. “Now, it’s my turn,” Molina said in reference to Wainwright, adding that he’d “love to finish my career with him.”

Wainwright is also playing the 2021 season on a one-year contract, and he’s said in the past that he’ll need to discuss the matter with his family before determining whether he’ll continue his own career into the 2022 campaign. Through 162 2/3 innings, Wainwright has a 3.10 ERA, three complete games and a shutout. He’ll turn 40 next Monday.

It’s not surprising the two sides were able to line up on terms, as they were known to be in extension discussions last week. Molina was believed to be seeking a one-year deal that matches or tops the $9MM salary on which he’s playing out the 2021 campaign, and he’s succeeded in landing exactly that. Molina didn’t sign that deal until this past January, and he’d been vocal about wanting to avoid lingering on the free agent market again this time around.

Molina’s no longer the MVP-caliber player he was at his peak, but he’s still a productive regular catcher even at age-39. This season, he’s hitting .259/.304/.376 with eight homers across 365 plate appearances, not far off the .268/.310/.388 slash line he compiled between 2019-20. That’s below-average offensive production overall, but it’s still fine work when considering the toll catching takes on players. Backstops have compiled just a .228/.307/.391 mark around the league. Molina’s offensive output is around par with the league average at the position.

That’s without considering his contributions on the other side of the ball. Molina is regarded as perhaps the best defensive catcher of his generation. As is the case with his bat, Molina’s glove has fallen off somewhat with age, but he’s still unquestionably a plus behind the dish. Molina has cut down seventeen of forty attempted base-stealers this season, a 42.5% rate that’s far better than the 24.4% league average.

In addition to neutralizing the running game, Molina has a reputation as one of the game’s best at the aspects of catching that are difficult or impossible to quantify. His once-elite framing metrics have fallen to around league average, but he still checks in as a viable receiver. And the Cardinals no doubt believe Molina brings intangible value from a leadership perspective to the pitching staff and clubhouse.

While Molina should still bring quite a bit to the table next season, it’s apparent his legacy as one of the best players in franchise history plays into the front office’s eagerness to keep him off the open market. No active player in MLB has been with their current team longer than Molina, who debuted with St. Louis in June 2004. The nine-time Gold Glove award winner was an integral part of the Cardinals’ 2006 and 2011 World Series teams. There’s plenty of reason for the club not wanting to risk a repeat of last offseason’s stalemate.

Molina recently hinted that next year could be the last of his illustrious career, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referred to 2022 as Molina’s “final season” in the press release accompanying the announcement of today’s extension. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) notes that the current expectation for both Molina and the Cardinals is that 2022 will indeed be his final year as a player. If that ultimately proves to be the case, he would retire as the rare one-franchise star.

With Molina wrapped up, the Cardinals figure to turn to Adam Wainwright, another impending free agent who has been in St. Louis for ages. Wainwright made his debut in 2005 and has led the St. Louis rotation for a good portion of the past fifteen years. Despite turning 40 years old this month, Wainwright has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. Assuming he wants to keep playing beyond this year, the Cardinals would have every reason to look to hammer out an extension with Wainwright as well.

The Molina extension will push the Cardinals’ estimated 2022 player payroll just north of $90MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Nolan Arenado ($35MM if he doesn’t opt out), Paul Goldschmidt ($25.33MM), Miles Mikolas ($17MM) and Paul DeJong ($6.17MM) join Molina as players with notable guaranteed contracts on the books. St. Louis will also have to cover arbitration raises for Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes, Dakota Hudson, and Tyler O’Neill, among others. The Cardinals opened the 2021 season with an estimated $163MM payroll.

St. Louis could look to address the rotation and middle infield this winter. Catcher, where Andrew Knizner has struggled in limited action as Molina’s understudy, would’ve been a question mark in the unlikely event Molina went elsewhere. It seems the Cardinals are prepared to roll with a Molina-Knizner pairing again next season, and top prospect Iván Herrera could be worked into the mix midseason with an eye towards 2023. The lion’s share of playing time behind the plate at Busch Stadium will fall to Molina, as it has for the past sixteen years.

Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported the agreement and its terms.