This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Mets signing Juan Soto (2:35)
• The Yankees to sign Max Fried (26:05)
• The Red Sox acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox (36:10)
• The Giants signing Willy Adames (46:40)
• The Athletics signing Luis Severino (51:55)
• The Blue Jays acquiring Andrés Giménez from the Guardians who flip Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates for Luis Ortiz (1:01:25)
• The Orioles signing Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sánchez (1:14:00)
• The Tigers signing Alex Cobb (1:21:35)
• The Rangers re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and acquiring Jake Burger from the Marlins (1:25:20)

Check out our past episodes!

• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here
• Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
• The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Adames, 29, was the top shortstop available on the market this winter and goes to a team that has been candid about its desire to upgrade at the position this winter. They’ve now done so by bringing in one of the league’s steadiest players on both sides of the ball to handle the position.

Adames has been worth at least 3.1 fWAR and 3.0 bWAR in each of his five full, 162-game seasons in the majors thanks to that consistency. A career 109 wRC+ hitter who slashed a strong .251/.331/.462 (119 wRC+) with Milwaukee in 2024, the addition of Adames as a middle-of-the-order bat should help improve a Giants offense that managed just a 98 wRC+ last year.

While San Francisco’s 112 wRC+ at shortstop last year a strong figure, much of that production was thanks to multi-positional bat Tyler Fitzgerald, who took over the position down the stretch but was a lackluster defender with a -4 in Outs Above Average last year. Adames was only worth a +1 figure by OAA last year but posted excellent +16 and +10 figures in the metric in 2022 and ’23 and should be a major upgrade to the club’s defense who forms a dynamic tandem with third baseman Matt Chapman on the left side of the infield. That combination of above-average offense and defense at a premium position on the diamond was enough to make Adames the #5 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month, where we predicted a six-year $160MM deal for the shortstop.

Adames managed to top that prediction by one year and $22MM, which isn’t necessarily a major shock given the thin infield market and Adames’s wide range of suitors. The Yankees, Phillies, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were all linked to Adames in recent weeks, and a handful of those suitors were seemingly drawn in by his willingness to move off of shortstop in order to facilitate a deal. That made him a particularly attractive option for clubs like the Yankees and Astros, for whom a potential position change made Adames an interesting “Plan B” option should they fail to re-sign incumbent sluggers Juan Soto and Alex Bregman given their apparent comfort with incumbent shortstop Anthony Volpe and Jeremy Pena.

Ultimately, however, Adames has landed with a club that figures to play him at shortstop on a daily basis. Fitzgerald, who slashed .280/.334/.497 (132 wRC+) in 96 games with the club last year, seems likely to be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second base now that he’s been bumped off of shortstop but also has experience at first base and in the outfield that could theoretically lead to a multi-positional role if needed. With former top prospect Marco Luciano as well as youngsters like Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos, and Grant McCray likely to impact the club’s outfield mix next year alongside incumbents Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski, it’s not impossible to imagine the addition of Adames leaving the club more or less set on the positional side.

Even if San Francisco doesn’t make further additions to their hitting corps, questions remain about their plans for the remainder of the offseason. Reporting has previously indicated that the club plans to enter 2025 with a lower payroll than 2024, and RosterResource indicates that signing Adames has left the club with a projected payroll of $180MM for 2025. That’s $26MM below their final estimate for the 2024 season, which would be consistent with a reduction in payroll if the club didn’t make additional moves. The Giants have also featured prominently in the rumor mill for starting pitching this winter, however, and were connected to top free agent starter Corbin Burnes just last week.

Signing Burnes in addition to Adames would surely push their payroll to or even beyond 2024 levels, which would suggest either a reversal regarding their payroll plans or an intention to cut salary elsewhere, perhaps by trading a player such as Yastrzemski or first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. It’s also worth noting that the Giants are forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks (as well as $1MM in international bonus pool money) in order to sign Adames. That could make the club hesitant to sign an additional qualified free agent like Burnes in order to preserve their remaining draft capital, or it’s possible that San Francisco could be emboldened to make another qualified signing because the draft penalty becomes relatively less-severe on additional signings. For example, signing Burnes would now cost the Giants only their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft after accounting for the picks forfeited to sign Adames, meaning they would actually be giving up what were actually their third- and seventh-highest selections in the draft at the start of the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Adames had agreed to a seven-year, $182MM deal that included a $22MM signing bonus. Susan Slusser of the Francisco Chronicle initially reported the sides were making progress. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the no-trade clause and the absence of deferrals. Slusser also first reported the specific annual breakdown.

The longtime Brewers shortstop is among the most potent bats in the game at his position. Adames slugged a career-high 32 home runs in 2024, topping his previous highwater mark of 31 round-trippers, set in 2022. Over the past four seasons, he's tied with Corey Seager for the MLB lead in shortstop home runs (112). He's more strikeout-prone than some teams might like, but he's cut his strikeout rate in four consecutive seasons now, fanning in one-quarter of his plate appearances this past year. That's still a fair bit, but it's no longer egregiously north of league average, which sat at 22.6% in 2024.

The Brewers bought low on Adames early in the 2021 season when he was struggling with the Rays, sending a pair of generally unproven relievers to Tampa Bay: J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. It worked out for both parties in the end. Adames became an All-Star shortstop, and both pitchers became key parts of Tampa Bay's staff -- Rasmussen in particular. He's rattled off four straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, much of it out of the rotation.

Adames hit .244/.323/.457 in parts of four seasons in Milwaukee. That overall line is dragged down by a pedestrian 2023 season, but Adames has been at least 9% better than average at the plate in four of the past five years, by measure of wRC+ (and at least 19% better in three of the past five). He's typically graded out as a plus defender, though his defensive metrics took an unexpected dip last year -- due largely to an uncharacteristically error-prone stretch in July where he made eight miscues in just three weeks.

Teams will likely still view Adames as a player with strong defensive tools, and he's willing to move to another position -- third base or second base -- if the right opportunity presents itself. Adames made the no-brainer decision to reject a qualifying offer from Milwaukee. He's surely kept a watchful eye as fellow shortstops Trevor Story ($140MM), Javier Baez ($140MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM) all cashed in on major free-agent deals heading into their own age-29 seasons. Adames, whose gregarious personality and reputation as a clubhouse leader only further enhance his appeal to clubs, arguably has as much or even more earning power than any of that bunch.

Let's take a look at which teams could be involved.

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New York’s top priority is re-signing Juan Soto. They could know within the next few days whether Soto will stay in the Bronx or accept a $600MM+ offer elsewhere. If Soto walks, there’d be a lot of pressure on both owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman to land one or more players from the next tiers of free agency.

Adames and Alex Bregman are probably the next-best position players. Neither is going to come close to Soto’s contract, of course, but they could each land a deal in the $150-200MM range. While Bregman would be a more straightforward positional fit, it’s possible the organization could still have animosity over the third baseman’s role in the 2017 sign-stealing operation. Adames carries no such baggage.

The Yankees don’t need a shortstop. Anthony Volpe is one of the game’s top defensive infielders. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com wrote recently that the Yanks were unwilling to move Volpe off the position. Adames is reportedly willing to consider a position change, though it’s possible he’d sign with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop if he’s weighing multiple offers in the same price range.

Shortstop is the only infield position that is settled in the Bronx. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be in the mix at either second or third base. If Chisholm replaces Gleyber Torres at the keystone, the top internal third base possibilities are DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera and prospect Caleb Durbin. That’s not sufficient for a team trying to get back to the World Series. The Yankees could also upgrade at first base, where Ben Rice is the best in-house option.

Adames hasn’t played third base in the majors. He has 10 career games outside of shortstop, all of which came at second base during his 2018 rookie season. Shortstops usually move to other infield positions without issue. Adames has plus arm strength and athleticism. His typically strong defensive grades dipped this year because of a spike in errors, but there’s not much reason to believe he wouldn’t be an effective third baseman.

There’d be no need for a position change in San Francisco. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said at the start of the offseason that the Giants wanted to add a shortstop. That’d allow them to move Tyler Fitzgerald to second base, where he’s a better fit. San Francisco was linked to Ha-Seong Kim, the market’s #2 shortstop, a few weeks ago.

Kim is coming back from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder. That makes him riskier than Adames but should dramatically reduce the price. While Adames is likely to sign for six or seven years, Kim could settle for a two-year deal that allows him to opt out after next season. The former Padres infielder also has an obvious connection to San Francisco skipper Bob Melvin.

Adames rejected a qualifying offer from the Brewers. The Yankees and Giants each exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year, so they’d pay the highest penalties to sign a qualified free agent. Either team would lose their second- and fifth-highest pick in next summer’s draft and $1MM from their 2026 international signing bonus pool.

Polanco, who’s coming off a down year in Seattle and underwent knee surgery in October, has typically been a middle infielder, first coming to the majors as a shortstop in Minnesota before moving over to second base due to defensive concerns. The 31-year-old does have a bit of experience at the hot corner, having logged a combined 180 innings there in two different seasons with the Twins (plus another 128 frames there as a minor leaguer). He played 103 innings at third base as recently as 2023 in Minnesota.

The 2024 season was a disaster for Polanco, who’s battled knee troubles for several seasons and saw those ongoing troubles culminate in offseason surgery. His lone year in Seattle produced a .213/.296/.355 slash in 118 games — a far cry from the combined .270/.338/.455 output Polanco posted in six years with the Twins from 2018-23. Polanco still cracked 16 home runs for the Mariners in 2024, but his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 29.2% and he posted some of the worst defensive grades of his career (-10 Outs Above Average).

Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee in early October. He’d previously had IL stints for that same knee in both 2023 and 2022, missing about seven weeks of action combined between the two instances. Given the recent knee struggles and ugly results in 2024, Polanco is likely ticketed for a one-year deal. At the very least, he’d be an affordable alternative to Bregman/Adames who could allow the ’Stros to perhaps spend elsewhere.

At this stage of his career, however, asking Polanco to hold down third base regularly feels like a stretch. He’ll turn 32 next July, is coming off that knee surgery and already ranks poorly in terms of arm strength on his throws in the infield, per Statcast. While throws from second base and third base can’t simply be compared in apples-to-apples fashion — throws from third base are inherently going to come in at a higher velocity — Polanco is well below average even when compared strictly to other second basemen; his average velocity ranked 48th among the 63 players who made at least 100 throws as a second baseman in 2024. Perhaps a healthier lower half will lead to better life on his throws moving forward, but the recent trends don’t bode well for a move to third base.

That said, it’s a pretty thin market at the hot corner this offseason — at least in free agency. Bregman is the clear top option, though some teams might prefer Adames, who’s reportedly willing to move off shortstop in the right setting. Virtually everyone beyond Bregman and Adames falls into the rebound candidate bucket, with Polanco joining names like Josh Rojas, Gio Urshela, Yoan Moncada, Brandon Drury and Luis Urias (among others). The trade market includes Alec Bohm and the pricier Nolan Arenado, to name a couple of the most prominent candidates.

As the Phils look to make some changes, they only have so many avenues. Many of their position players are expensive veterans who are entrenched on the roster, either due to their performance, their contracts or both.

Bohm, on the other hand, is still in his arbitration years, slated for free agency after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8.1MM next year and Bohm would be due another raise for 2026.

On top of that, his performance has been more good than great. To this point in his career, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That translates to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, but in lopsided fashion, with a 128 in the first half and a 90 in the second. Also, most of his damage has been done with the platoon advantage. He has a career 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a subpar 91 wRC+ against righties.

Defensively, he hasn’t been great overall, though he has shown signs of improvement. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the first four years of his career but then had him at league average in 2024. Outs Above Average had Bohm in negative territory from 2020 to 2022 but slightly better than par in the past two years.

Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his career for a 135 wRC+ and has been a considered a strong defender at third base to boot. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his career while providing strong shortstop defense, but he’s reportedly willing to move to other infield positions. Most shortstops are capable of moving to other spots on the infield fairly smoothly, so it’s possible the Phils would expect Adames to provide better glovework than Bohm, even though it would be a new position for him.

Enacting these moves would have complications. Bohm’s modest projected salary is far less than what Bregman or Adames are likely to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182MM and Adames  for $160MM over six years, both for average annual values in the $26-27MM range.

The payroll could be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has said he expects payroll to go up but it already has, in a way. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $263MM next year, which is $15MM higher than 2024 before they’ve even made any moves.

Their $282MM competitive balance tax number is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, that means they are already looking at a 95% tax on any money they add up to the final line of $301MM. Anything they add beyond that line would have a 110% tax rate.

Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make those numbers go up but it seems the Phils have at least some hope of making up the difference elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they have tried to use Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet loose from the White Sox. Crochet had a massive breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run average, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

That performance will make Crochet very popular on the trade market, but so will his salary. Since he spent the early parts of his career either injured or working out of the bullpen, he’s only projected for a $2.9MM salary in 2025, with one more arb pass after that. The Phils have a strong rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, but Walker has fallen out of favor with the club, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter could be a factor in 2025 but he’s a big unknown since he still hasn’t made his major league debut and is coming back from a long Tommy John surgery layoff.

It would obviously be a wonderful series of chess moves if the Phillies could use Bohm to add a cheap ace to their rotation, perhaps finding a way to unload the two years and $36MM left on Walker’s contract, and then use the cost savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to replace Bohm at third.

However, doing all of that would require the agreement of other teams. Bohm’s trade value won’t be that high on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale adds that the Sox are worried by Bohm’s performance in the second half of 2024. He also wouldn’t have much value to the Sox anyway, since his control window is so short. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s hard to envision them return to contention in Bohm’s two remaining years of club control. The Phils might have to include some more prospect talent to get a deal done, which they might not want to do right now, given how much of the roster is filled with expensive veterans.

A far simpler outcome for Bregman would just be to re-sign with the Astros, where he has spent his entire career so far. It’s a far simpler fit and the two sides seemingly have had mutual interest in signing a new deal for years, but nothing has come together thus far.

It seems there might be a bit of a gap in terms of the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston wants Bregman back on a deal of about $156MM over six years but Bregman is looking to get to the $200MM line. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that the Astros have made an offer to Bregman. It’s unknown what they put on the table but the fact that he hasn’t yet accepted it suggests that it wasn’t up to his expectations. General manager Dana Brown has suggested the club might need to be creative with the budget this offseason but owner Jim Crane has suggested there’s money available for the right players and all signs have pointed to Bregman being the club’s highest priority.

Bregman has also been connected to the Tigers and Red Sox in the past week, with the latter club considering a move to first base for Rafael Devers, in order to accommodate Bregman. Adames has also been connected to the Red Sox, in addition to the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Both players rejected qualifying offers and would be subject to associated penalties, unless they re-sign with their respective 2024 clubs.

For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft if they sign a player that rejected a qualifying offer. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit anything, apart from the compensation pick they stand to receive if Bregman goes elsewhere, which would come after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

The idea of Devers moving to first base has previously been floated by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman throughout the offseason so far, though McAdam’s report stands as the first confirmation that a position change for Devers is under internal consideration within the organization. Previously, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has declined to comment on the possibility of moving Devers off third beyond saying that the club wouldn’t seriously entertain the idea without first discussing it with Devers himself. That could be a complicating factor in a position change, as Devers’s agent, Nelson Montes de Oca, recently told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that Devers has no plans to move off the hot corner.

“He is a third baseman,” Montes de Oca told Speier, “and he will continue to play third base and work hard to get better at it. That’s his position, that’s what he likes to play, and that’s what he will be playing.”

Resistance to a position change from Devers’s camp isn’t the only potential obstacle to a move. After all, the Red Sox have an extremely talented incumbent first baseman in Triston Casas, who at just 24 years old remains under team control for four more seasons and has previously expressed interest in signing with Boston on a long-term extension. The youngster missed much of the 2024 season due to injury but is a career .250/.357/.473 (125 wRC+) hitter since making his big league debut late in the 2022 season. There’s been speculation at times this winter that the Red Sox could consider moving on from Casas to land starting pitching, but Breslow was quick to shoot down those rumors earlier this month. Given that, a move to first base for Devers would require the front office to either reverse their stance on dealing Casas or else park him at DH on a regular basis, pushing Masataka Yoshida (and the three years and $55.6MM remaining on his contract) either to the bench or off the roster entirely.

Complicated as a position change for Devers would be, the potential benefits for the club could be substantial. Devers is among the worst fielding third basemen in the sport by most metrics, and a move across the diamond would surely improve the club’s infield defense dramatically. In 2024, Devers was worth -9 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a -5 in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric. That’s the lowest DRS and tied for the lowest FRV among all qualified (min. 750 innings) third basemen this year. Replacing Devers with an average or even slightly below average glove at third would improve the club’s infield defense considerably, but a position change for Devers would likely be just as motivated by it creating an avenue to improving the club’s offense.

If third base were to be opened by Devers moving to first, that would create an easy place for the Red Sox to add a right-handed bat to the lineup. Adding some thump from the right side has been a priority for Boston dating back to the trade deadline, and the club’s need for a right-handed hitter to add to their offense only grew more pronounced when outfielder Tyler O’Neill hit the open market earlier this month. Most attention on this need has been focused on the outfield at this point in the offseason given the club’s reported interest in either a reunion with O’Neill or pivoting to a deal with Teoscar Hernandez, but the club’s outfield remains crowded with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all in the mix for playing time already before considering top prospect Roman Anthony (or veterans Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder), who should be ready to take on a regular role at some point in 2025.

Complicated as that outfield picture already is, it’s easy to see why adding a right-handed bat to the infield could be a preferable, more straightforward option than adding another player to the club’s logjam on the grass. Given that, it’s perhaps no surprise that the club has been connected to both longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and former Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in free agency. Both players have expressed an openness to moving to second base (as well as third, in the case of Adames) if their new club so desires, meaning the addition of either player wouldn’t necessarily require Devers to change positions. With highly-regarded second base prospect Kristian Campbell seemingly in the mix for starts in Boston as soon as Opening Day, however, it’s easy to see why the Red Sox may prefer to install Bregman or Adames at the hot corner and move Devers to first.

While the club’s interest in Bregman and Adames has been reported semi-frequently to this point in the winter, McAdam’s suggestion that Arenado could be a consideration for the Red Sox is the first connection between Boston and the veteran star. Unlike Bregman and Adames, it’s all but unfathomable that a ten-time Gold Glove award winner like Arenado would change positions in deference to Devers, meaning a deal for the 33-year-old would certainly require a position change for the younger star. Arenado is also coming off his second consecutive down season offensively. While he was a finalist for the NL MVP award back in 2022, he’s hit just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in two seasons since then.

That said, Arenado’s defense has remained well above average even if it’s no longer quite as elite as it was during his peak, and that’s allowed him to be a roughly three-win player in each of the past two seasons. While he may no longer offer the same level of impact as Bregman or Adames, the three years and $74MM remaining on the veteran’s contract pales in comparison to the nine-figure sums both free agents are expected to land and would likely do little to impede Boston’s pursuit of other top-of-the-market names like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, especially if a deal involved the Cardinals either retaining some money or taking on a sizable portion of Yoshida’s contract in return. Any deal involving Arenado, of course, would require the veteran’s approval given his full no-trade clause. While the 33-year-old hasn’t requested a trade to this point, both he and the Cardinals appear to be open to parting ways if the right deal comes along given the club’s plans to retool and focus on youth in 2025.

The players who rejected the offer:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Reports surfaced a couple of weeks ago that Adames was open to moving off shortstop if the situation warranted, thus further opening up his market of potential suitors.  Looking at Morosi’s list, the Braves would seemingly be the only one of the four clubs that would be looking at Adames as a shortstop, since Atlanta has a clear need at the position.

Orlando Arcia struggled through a very rough year at the plate in 2024, and replacing Arcia with Adames at shortstop would provide a huge upgrade to the Braves’ lineup.  Signing Adames would represent a new frontier for Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 offseason is the largest free agent contract Anthopoulos has handed out over his seven-plus years running the Braves’ front office.

Adames’ expected contract would more than double Ozuna’s deal.  MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM contract for Adames.  Adding somewhere in the range of $26.6MM in average annual value onto the Braves’ books would continue to boost a payroll that has plenty of long-term commitments in place, though Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias are both free agents after the 2025 season, and technically Chris Sale could be as well if Atlanta doesn’t exercise a club option on his services for 2026.

Signing with Boston would open up several defensive possibilities for Adames.  Trevor Story is the incumbent shortstop and still an excellent defender, even if injuries have limited Story’s offense and playing time altogether over his three seasons with the Red Sox.  Story is still owed $77.5MM through the 2027 season, and while he can opt out of his contract after the 2025 campaign, an opt-out doesn’t seem at all likely given the veteran infielder’s last few years.

The Sox used Story at second base in 2022 when Xander Bogaerts was still on the team, so Story could shift over to the keystone again to accommodate Adames.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is just to install Adames as the regular second baseman, hopefully finally ending the revolving door that has been Boston’s second base position in recent years.

Star prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could slot into the infield mix as early as 2025 if Campbell isn’t utilized as an outfielder.  Once the Sox see what they have in the youngsters and need to find playing time, the Red Sox could them perhaps use Adames as a third baseman, bumping Rafael Devers into a first base or DH role.  There are plenty of moving parts defensively, yet Adames would provide a clear boost to a lineup in sore need of a big right-handed bat.

Bo Bichette is coming off a miserable 2024 season, yet he remains Toronto’s everyday shortstop heading into his final year of team control.  With Bichette in the fold, the Jays could use Adames at second or (more likely) third base, as the Blue Jays’ collective of in-house young infielders are almost all better suited defensively to the keystone than the hot corner.

If Bichette was to leave in free agency next winter, Toronto could explore simply moving Adames back to shortstop, thus addressing a major position in relatively easy fashion.  Second and third base could then be occupied on a more permanent basis by one of the Blue Jays’ incumbent infielders, depending on which stood out during the 2025 season.  Again, the offensive upgrade is obvious, since Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what the Jays hope will be a resurgent Bichette form a powerful lineup core on paper.

It is worth mentioning that Adames has played virtually his entire MLB career at the shortstop position, and he hasn’t played anywhere else on the diamond since making 10 appearances as a second baseman during his 2018 rookie season with the Rays.  Moving to third base would therefore represent an entirely new challenge for the 29-year-old, which provides an interesting backdrop to the Astros’ pursuit.

Since Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve have the middle infield positions covered, Houston would therefore be looking at Adames as a third baseman if Alex Bregman signed elsewhere.  Astros GM Dana Brown has described re-signing Bregman as “our biggest priority,” so while Bregman’s departure is far from a foregone conclusion, the Astros surely have some backup plans in mind if their longtime third baseman did leave.

Replacing Bregman with another high-priced free agent infielder would count as a bit of a surprise, given how Brown has said his club “may have to get a little bit creative” in managing the payroll this winter.  The same applies to the Blue Jays, as Toronto already posted a team-record high payroll in 2024 with only a last-place finish in the AL East to show for it.  The Red Sox have plenty of payroll room open, and while the team has shied away from major free agents in the last few years, Boston has already been linked to a wide range of top names (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell), so the Sox seem to be signaling that they are ready to again shop in the high-rent district.

Since Adames is sure to reject the Brewers’ qualifying offer, a new team would face some sort of penalty for signing him.  The Braves and Astros both exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, and thus signing Adames or any qualified free agent would cost the club $1MM in international bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  It is a steep penalty to pay, though the draft hit could be slightly lessened in the form of a compensatory pick after the fourth round if either the teams’ own qualified free agents (Houston’s Bregman, Atlanta’s Fried) signed elsewhere.

The Blue Jays (just barely) and Red Sox stayed under the tax threshold this season, so both would have to give up $500K of international bonus pool money as well as their second-highest 2025 draft selection.  The Sox also have a qualified free agent of their own in Nick Pivetta, and if Pivetta departed, Boston’s compensatory pick could come before the start of the third draft round.

Adames probably doesn’t need to make the shift based on his abilities, though he is coming off a bit of a down year in terms of his glovework. He was credited with 10 fielding errors in 2024, more than the seven he had in the previous two seasons combined. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a dismal grade of -16 for the year while Outs Above Average merely had him at par. However, DRS gave him a positive grade in each of the previous five seasons while Adames had a big +16 grade from OAA in 2023 and +10 the year prior.

Clubs could view that more as an outlier season, as opposed to Adames suddenly falling off a cliff defensively at the age of 28. Still, there’s logic to him being open to a position change. Any free agent is helped by having more suitors, as a more fervent bidding war can drive up prices, as opposed to a stagnant market that sees the player linger in free agency. Adames has no third base experience in the big leagues and only a small amount at second, but most shortstops are able to pivot elsewhere on the diamond without much issue. He has a .248/.322/.444 career batting line and hit .251/.331/.462 for a 119 wRC+ in 2024, offense that would play at any position.

There are plenty of clubs that already have shortstops but could perhaps use help at second or third, with the Mets being one of them. They have one of the best shortstops in the league in Francisco Lindor, who is under contract through 2031 and just wrapped up a strong season that might see him finish second to Shohei Ohtani in National League Most Valuable Player voting.

But second and third base are a bit more open. Jeff McNeil is arguably the best option for the keystone but his performance has wobbled in recent years and he’s also capable of playing other spots. At third, Mark Vientos just had a breakout season at the plate but with poor defense and it’s been suggested the club could look to move him to first base as a replacement for free agent Pete Alonso.

The Mets could take that approach with an existing third baseman like Alex Bregman, as he is a better hitter than Adames and already established at the position. But Adames is a couple of years younger and could secure a lesser contract just based on his track record. MLBTR recently projected Bregman for $182MM over seven years and Adames for $160MM over six seasons in our annual Top 50 Free Agents post.

For Adames, having a club like the Mets at the table can only help. They are one of the top spending clubs in the league but there would be no point in them getting involved if Adames was firmly committed to staying at short, so it’s sensible for him to express openness to moving. Clubs like the Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Royals could also be classified as having greater needs at infield positions other than shortstop, so getting them to the table as well could further expand his market.

One of the more straightforward fits would be the Giants, with president of baseball operations Buster Posey frankly admitting yesterday that the club is on the lookout for shortstops. However, Adames has received a qualifying offer from the Brewers that he’s sure to reject, thus tying him to the associated penalties.

Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might try to avoid signing players that rejected qualifying offers so early in his tenure. The Giants just had a hamstrung draft a few months ago, as they gave up their second- and third-round picks to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman last offseason, both of whom had rejected qualifying offers. The Giants went on to pay the competitive balance tax in 2024, meaning that signing any QO’d players this time around would result in forfeiting their second- and fifth-best picks of the upcoming draft as well as $1MM of international bonus space.

The Giants are one of the most sensible on-paper fits for Adames as a club with a strong record of spending and a clear need at shortstop. If they were to pivot to the trade market or signing a player without a qualifying offer like Ha-Seong Kim, that would only further the importance of Adames staying open to other positions.

As for a return to Milwaukee, that never seemed especially likely since the Brewers almost never give out massive contracts like the one Adames will surely require. Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Christian Yelich extension is the only time the club has surpassed $105MM on any deal. As if precedent wasn’t enough, owner Mark Attanasio basically confirmed it recently. “He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said of Adames. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames recently reflected on those comments, per another column from Sammon and Woo. He seemingly left the door open for a hometown discount, though perhaps only slightly. “I’m willing to stay here for less money, let’s say, but I just want to be fair for what I deserve in my career and whatever I’ve done,” Adames said. “We just have to wait and see where we’re at. You never know what’s going to happen and you never know who is going to be willing to make that commitment with me for a long time.”

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Atlanta shortstop Orlando Arcia had a dismal year at the plate after posting solid numbers in 2022-23.  Arcia is still under contract for 2025 but only for $2MM (and a $1MM buyout of a $2MM club option for 2026), so the Braves could sign Adames and still keep Arcia around as veteran infield depth.  With Adames likely to command a contract in the $150MM range, signing the shortstop would represent something of a departure for Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, whose free agent signings have been fairly limited during his seven seasons running Atlanta’s front office.  Still, a more aggressive foray into free agency might be seen as necessary after three straight playoff disappointments, and Anthopoulos certainly hasn’t been shy about spending in general, as evidenced by the Braves’ heavy slate of contract extensions.

Tyler Fitzgerald hit well in his rookie season but was a subpar defender as the Giants’ primary shortstop in 2024.  That said, Fitzgerald has played at six different positions during his two years in the big leagues, so it is easy to see San Francisco shift him to another spot on the diamond to accommodate Adames.  The Giants have long been eager to bring top-tier free agents to the roster, and with Matt Chapman already signed to a new contract, adding Adames would give the team arguably the league’s best left side of the infield.  Landing Adames (or another big name) would be an easy way for Buster Posey to make a splash in his first offseason as the Giants’ new president of baseball ops.

More from around the National League….

• The Reds’ hiring of Terry Francona came together quickly, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that president of baseball operations Nick Krall first touched base with Francona via a phone conversation on September 26.  Krall had gotten permission from the Guardians to speak with Francona (who was still with the team in a special assistant role), as Francona was atop the Reds’ list of nearly 100 possible managerial candidates but “with an asterisk,” depending on the longtime skipper’s health and whether he wanted to return after a year away from the sport.  Krall and GM Brad Meador met with Francona in Tucson on October 2, and were impressed enough to call owner Bob Castellini to fly to Tucson the next day to finalize the contract.  In other details on the managerial search, interim manager Freddie Benavides had put himself on the Reds’ short list with an excellent set of interviews, and Rangers associate manager Will Venable was also on the list of top targets.  It appears as though Benavides might’ve been the only other candidate to actually interview, as Francona’s emergence precluded the Reds’ need to speak with Venable, or other rumored candidates as David Ross or Skip Schumaker.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto was rocked for five runs over three innings in Game 1 of the NLDS last night, though the Dodgers came back for a 7-5 win over the Padres.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that the Dodgers were exploring the possibility that Yamamoto was tipping his pitches when runners were on base, and Ardaya notes that Yamamoto had a similar pitch-tipping issue during Spring Training.  Or, the problem might just be that the Padres have Yamamoto’s number, as they tagged him for eight runs over six innings in two starts during the regular season.  Either scenario is naturally a concern for L.A. in the rest of the series, and Roberts only said Yamamoto was “in play” to pitch during a potential Game 5, if not necessarily as a starter.

On the payroll side of things, Attanasio didn’t really tip his hand. While the club’s strong performance this year has led to increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner suggested that it may end up a wash with the club receiving less revenue sharing.

“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue isn’t just ticket revenue; it (includes) beverage and sponsorships, all of which are strong. (There’s) also revenue sharing, which we’ve talked about a lot. The way that the revenue sharing model works, everybody puts their money in the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you make on a comparative basis, the less revenue sharing you get.”

Attanasio also went on to highlight that the club will face some uncertainty in terms of their TV revenues. “We’ve got local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally’s. If you look to the medium term and not just the short term, I look at that as opportunities because of the ability to control our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that may occasion a step back next year.” Per Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a step back” meant less TV revenue coming in, not necessarily less money going out to the player payroll.

Diamond has been in a limbo state for quite some time now. Reports emerged in the 2022-23 offseason that the company, which owns Bally Sports networks, was in a bad financial position. The company filed for bankruptcy just before the 2023 season kicked off but has since tried to stay afloat. It’s not yet clear if their efforts to continue operating will ultimately be successful.

Though the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their total portfolio has shifted. They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have been fairly untouched so far but Hogg’s piece notes that their deal with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their 2025 TV revenue a big unknown at this point.

There are many moving parts between the gate revenue, uncertainty with the broadcast situation and the revenue sharing. Since the club continues to perform well on the field but is facing those questions about the business side of things, perhaps it’s fair to expect that the payroll won’t be wildly shifting in either direction.

The club’s payroll has generally fallen in the middle of the league, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Attanasio purchased the club in 2005 and the club has never been higher than 13th in terms of player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers have been in the range of 19th to 22nd among the 30 clubs in the majors. This year, they were 22nd with an Opening Day budget of $104MM.

Despite those financial limitations, there has been a lot of on-field success. This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Milwaukee has cracked the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.

Per RosterResource, the club only has $39MM committed to next year’s roster, though that number doesn’t really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18MM player option that he will surely trigger on the heels of a down year. There’s a $4MM buyout, so he’ll add $14MM to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will surely pick up club options on Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Colin Rea, adding another $21.25MM.

That would get the total number up to the $75MM range, before accounting for arbitration raises. Aaron Civale is making $4.9MM this year and should get a bump of a few million. Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps each made around $2MM this year and will get bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to get a notable raise with his strong career to date. Players like Jake Bauers, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill and Nick Mears are also in line for arb raises.

Depending on which of those players are tendered contracts and where the salaries ultimately end up, the Brewers could wind up fairly close to this year’s $104MM payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some cash, but the club might not have a lot of powder dry to bring back Adames, which Attanasio was frank about.

“He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has had a strong bounce back this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line translated to a 119 wRC+, indicating he was 19% above league average at the plate overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries. His defensive reviews weren’t as strong as previous years, with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average, though his career tallies are still positive in both of those metrics. Even with the diminished grades for his glovework, FanGraphs still considered him to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement on the year.

As a solidly above average shortstop going into his age-29 season, his free agency has a lot of comparables to Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. All three of them were in similar positions as they hit the open market. Báez and Story each got $140MM over six years while Swanson got $177MM over seven.

The Brewers have only once given out a contract anywhere near that range, with the extension for Christian Yelich getting to $188.5MM. Apart from that, the largest contract in franchise history was $105MM for Ryan Braun back in 2011, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Given the club’s track record and current budgetary question marks, and Attanasio’s straightforward comments, the odds of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem to be quite low. Assuming that comes to pass, they will recoup draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he will reject.

The club has a couple of in-house options to cover for Adames, as both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz came up as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive grades primarily at second and third base this year respectively and either could be a candidate to move back to short going forward. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a low-cost solution to Adames’ departure if the club goes that route. They would then have to address either second or third base but could find internal solutions for that issue as well. The club has toyed with Sal Frelick being moved to third as a solution to its crowded outfield picture, though injuries have allowed him to stay in the outfield for now. Prospect Tyler Black is also a possibility at the hot corner going forward.

There will be many questions to be answered in the weeks and months to come. For now, the club will be focused on winning the games in front of them, which could also impact the upcoming winter. A lengthy playoff run would lead to more gate and TV revenue, which could perhaps impact how the front office and ownership answer some of these questions.

That series of health woes has left Milwaukee with a patchwork rotation comprised that features only three set members at the moment: staff ace Freddy Peralta, journeyman Colin Rea and swingman-turned-starter Bryse Wilson. The Brewers announced earlier today that righty Tobias Myers will start tonight’s game and has since optioned lefty Aaron Ashby to Triple-A (clearing way for the selection of righty James Meeker’s contract). They’ll feature plenty of “TBA”s in the near future when looking at upcoming pitching matchups.

Incredibly, the Brewers are not only still in first place but have a relatively commanding 5.5-game lead over the division at the moment. Still, it’s wholly unsurprising to see FanSided’s Robert Murray suggest that starting pitching will be a major point of focus for Milwaukee’s front office in the weeks leading up to next month’s trade deadline. Murray writes that the Brewers “considered” righty Mike Clevinger in free agency before the 33-year-old re-signed with the White Sox on a one-year deal.

Milwaukee’s level of interest in Clevinger following four shaky White Sox starts and an IL placement for elbow inflammation isn’t clear, but he’d be a reasonable low-cost pickup — both in terms of salary ($3MM base) and cost of acquisition. Clevinger has pitched 16 innings with a 6.75 ERA, a 19.2% strikeout rate and an 11.5% walk rate. He did not complete five innings in any of his four starts with the Sox prior to being placed on the 15-day IL in late May. There’s still seven weeks for him to get healthy and get back to his 2023 form, when he tossed 131 1/3 innings of 3.77 ERA ball (4.28 FIP, 4.81 SIERA). If Clevinger can indeed right the ship, the offseason interest from Milwaukee will be an interesting point to keep in mind, but for now the Brew Crew is surely trying to find more immediate upgrades.

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel also writes within his latest mailbag that Milwaukee is likely to pursue pitching depth at the deadline. That’s only natural, but Hogg also fields multiple questions on the trade candidacy — or lack thereof — of Willy Adames. Milwaukee’s shortstop is just months from reaching the open market, and the Brewers have in the past been willing to trade from the big league roster in the midst of contending pushes as a means of stockpiling future talent. Their 2022 trade of Josh Hader, in particular, is the most prominent instance of this.

That said, Hogg paints a trade of Adames as unlikely, citing a recent interview with Brewers owner Mark Attanasio wherein he acknowledged that the team has not only received trade offers but compelling ones for Adames in the past — as recently as this offseason. “…[T]here may have been some merit to build for the future,” Attanasio said of the offers received for Adames. The club’s owner also touted Adames as one of the heartbeats of the clubhouse, however. And, as Hogg rightly notes, Adames is a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate at season’s end — one who’ll surely sign a large enough contract to net the Brewers a comp pick at the end of the first round — if he indeed signs elsewhere.

The previously mentioned injury problems for the Brewers don’t stop in the rotation. Milwaukee has been without outfielder Garrett Mitchell and, even more critically, star closer Devin Williams all season. Young fireballer Abner Uribe took over some of Williams’ closing duties early in the season and had a strong start, tossing 12 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA, a 27% strikeout rate and three saves to begin the season. Uribe was torched for five runs in two-thirds of an inning against the Yankees in late April and gave up another run against the Rays three days later before being sent to Nashville to work shaky command that had led to a glaring 18.2% walk rate.

Now, however, Uribe is also on the shelf. He recently sustained a knee injury and was placed on the minor league injured list, general manager Matt Arnold revealed to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Uribe is slated to undergo an MRI next Tuesday, at which point the club will surely have further updates on his status.

“He’s the best,” Attanasio said of Adames, as relayed by Hogg. “…Willy’s performance got to a point where it would be – we’ll see what happens after the season – but he’s going to command quite a significant package as a free agent.”

Attanasio certainly isn’t wrong to suggest that Adames has increased his stock with his play so far this season. The 28-year-old had generally established himself as an above-average shortstop on both sides of the ball entering the 2023 campaign, with a .255/.322/.448 slash line (110 wRC+) to go with a whopping 10 Outs Above Average during the 2022 campaign. While 2023 saw Adames maintain those top-of-the-scale defensive metrics at shortstop, his offense took a significant step back.

Despite career best strikeout (25.9%) and walk (11.1%) rates last season, Adames posted a career-worst 94 wRC+ while slashing a paltry .217/.310/.407 in 638 trips to the plate last year. That lackluster production was primarily due to Adames suffering a bit of a power outage. While his 64 home runs and 78 doubles between the 2020-22 campaigns gave him a healthy .220 isolated slugging across those three campaigns, 2023 saw that figure drop to just .190 as he slugged just 24 homers and 29 doubles. That combined with a career-worst .259 batting average on balls in play left Adames as a below average bat overall last year, raising some questions about his ability to command a significant deal this winter.

Fortunately for Adames, he’s largely put those concerns to bed with his performance in the first third of the 2024 campaign. He’s maintained the positive trends in terms of plate discipline from last year, sporting a healthy 10.4% walk rate while cutting his strikeouts down to just 20.7% of the time. On top of that, his .197 ISO suggests his power production is trending in the right direction, as does his hard-hit rate rebounding from just 36.1% last year to 40.7% so far this season. All that has left Adames with a solid .256/.335/.453 slash line (125 wRC+) to go with his best wOBA (.346) since 2021.

What’s more, it’s possible there’s even more offensive potential in Adames’s performance he has yet to tap into as indicated by his career-best .362 xwOBA. That figure is tied with Bryce Harper for 33rd among all qualified hitters this year, placing Adames’s expected production in the same stratosphere as elite infielders like Matt Olson and Rafael Devers. Even if Adames doesn’t end up reaching those heights this year, his current production at the plate in conjunction with defense at shortstop that has ranked in the 96th percentile or better of qualified fielders in each of the past three seasons is sure to make him among the most enticing infielders available this winter.

In the meantime, Adames has helped lead the Brewers to a command 6.5 game lead over the field in the NL Central as they’ve posted a 35-23 record to this point in the season. With such a solid lead in the division, one would be forgiven for assuming that Adames will remain in Milwaukee at least through the end of the 2024 campaign as the club continues to push towards its sixth playoff appearance in seven seasons. GM Matt Arnold indicated to reporters (including Hogg) during the conversation with Attanasio that nothing is guaranteed ahead of the trade deadline this summer, however, as he declined to say that the club’s star shortstop would be off the table this July.

“From my perspective you can never close the door on anything, but he is the heartbeat of our team in a lot of ways,” Arnold said, as relayed by Hogg. “Always want to stay open minded but also recognize the value that he brings to us everyday.”

If the Brewers were to collapse over the next two months, it would hardly be a surprise to see a budget-conscious club that prefers to avoid rebuilding and attempt to contend in perpetuity shop Adames around in hopes of finding longer term assets who could help the club win in the future. It’s much trickier to decipher whether they would seriously consider parting ways with Adames at the deadline if they remain firmly in the playoff picture, however. The Brewers famously dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the trade deadline while in contention back in 2022, and the loss of the club’s closer surely helped to contribute to the 29-31 record from August 1 onward that left them on the outside looking in during the postseason that year.

On the other hand, the two prospects Milwaukee acquired in the deal, outfielder Esteury Ruiz and lefty Robert Gasser, have both gone on to contribute to the big league club in big ways this season. The Brewers flipped Ruiz during the 2022-23 offseason in order to land catcher William Contreras in a three-team deal with the Braves and A’s, and Contreras has since broken out as one of the league’s very best catchers. As for Gasser, the 25-year-old rookie has looked nothing short of dominant in four starts with the Brewers this season, posting a sterling 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 23 innings of work.

Given the major success the club has enjoyed in turning the prospects from that deal into production at the big league level less than two years later, it stands to reason that Milwaukee brass would at least consider parting ways with Adames if they felt they could reasonably replace his production down the stretch and come out ahead in the long term. On the other hand, the club’s struggles in 2022 following the Hader trade highlight the risks involved in such a maneuver and could leave Arnold’s front office reluctant to run the same risk just two seasons after it potentially cost the Brewers a postseason berth.