January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. The majority of players agreed to terms with their respective clubs ahead of that deadline but Contreras was one of the 17 that did not. He filed at $6.5MM and the club at $5.6MM. This agreement puts him slightly beyond the midpoint of those two figures. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the backstop for $7.6MM.

After the filing deadline, teams and players are free to continue negotiating. However, most clubs adopt a “file and trial” policy, meaning that they refuse to negotiate one-year deals after the deadline. It’s quite common to see deals emerge after the deadline but before a hearing, though a club or mutual option will be involved. That’s a technicality since the option means the deal can’t be used as a comparable for future arb cases. That has come to pass in this case.

This is the first of three arbitration chances for Contreras, who is under club control through 2027. His subsequent raises will be based off his base salary in 2025, making this a significant case for player and club. As mentioned, the option is mostly a technicality. Even if the club eventually turns it down, he will still be under club control by the Brewers via arbitration.

Contreras came to the Brewers from Atlanta prior to the 2023 campaign, part of the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. In his two seasons in Milwaukee, he has slashed .285/.366/.462 for a wRC+ of 128. His defensive metrics also greatly improved relative to his time in Atlanta. He’s been worth 11.2 wins above replacement over those two campaigns, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Placement on the concussion-related injured list would keep Contreras out of action for a minimum of seven days, though it isn’t yet clear if an IL stint is under consideration.  It probably seems likely that he won’t be in Monday’s lineup for precautionary reasons, and the Brewers can only hope that the star catcher has avoided any kind of head injury.  Contreras had two more hits today to raise his season-long slash line to .305/.367/.467 over 316 plate appearances, for an outstanding 137 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR (17th in all of baseball).

More from around the NL Central…

• From one Contreras brother to another, as Willson Contreras’ speedy recovery from forearm surgery might take another quick step with a minor league rehab assignment.  Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X) and other reporters that Contreras might begin play at one of the team’s affiliates as early as Tuesday, if not necessarily Triple-A Memphis.  Contreras hasn’t played since May 7 when his left forearm was fractured by a J.D. Martinez swing, and he has made remarkable progress considering the 10-week timeline initially projected after his surgery.  The catcher has already been taking part in baseball activities for over a week.
• In other Cardinals injury news, Tommy Edman seems to be closing in on his first game action of the season, as the utiltyman is moving his rehab work to the team’s Spring Training complex in Jupiter, Florida.  Edman had arthroscopic wrist surgery last October, and his recovery has been slowed by continued discomfort in his wrist.  Today’s news is a good sign that Edman is finally starting to ramp up, even if a lengthy rehab process will still be needed after missing so much time.
• While the Pirates haven’t gotten much from their relief corps this season, GM Ben Cherington said the team won’t change its lower-cost approach to finding bullpen help.  In his weekly radio appearance on 93.7FM (hat tip to Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), said “we’re going to keep taking shots on less-proven guys who have pitch qualities that we believe can translate to major league success…and over time, we’re gonna hit on enough of those and it’s gonna add up to a good bullpen.”  These pitchers could come from both outside the organization and from within Pittsburgh’s own farm system.  If Cherington’s tactics seem limited, it should be noted that virtually every team in baseball tries the same methods, given how reliever performance can vary so greatly from season to season and how unheralded pitchers emerge every season to become ace bullpen arms.  This past winter actually saw the Bucs deviate from their usual plan by signing Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.5MM deal, though Chapman’s shaky performance has led to a lot of second-guessing on that acquisition.
• Circling back to the Brewers for the final item, manager Pat Murphy told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that JB Bukauskas will undergo an MRI after suffering a setback.  Bukauskas has been out since mid-April due to a lat strain, and pitched in his first rehab outing last Thursday but emerged with continued soreness.  Bukauskas has been in the Brewers’ organization since being claimed off the Mariners’ waiver wire in April 2023, though he has battled multiple injuries during his time in Milwaukee.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

Nine months later, it’s unlikely the Braves have any regrets about the deal. Murphy has taken a step forward with the bat in Atlanta, slashing a sensational .278/.387/.538 with a career-best wRC+ of 149 that when combined with his typical stellar defense behind the plate has allowed the 28-year-old All-Star to rack up 4.3 fWAR in just 87 games this season. Meanwhile, the Braves are the consensus best team in baseball with Fangraphs’ playoff odds giving the club an incredibly 26.5% chance at winning the World Series this year.

While Atlanta’s success both in this season and in landing Murphy is impressive in its own right, the Braves are not the only winner of this trade to this point in the season. Indeed, they may not even be the biggest winner of the deal so far. That’s because the Brewers, the requisite third team needed to help facilitate the deal, managed to turn their #8 prospect in outfielder Esteury Ruiz into five seasons of an All-Star catcher of their own, plus an excellent set-up man and an additional pitching prospect to boot.

En route to a breakout season with Atlanta during which he made his first career All-Star appearance, catcher William Contreras shared time behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud while also mixing in at DH and even in the outfield. In all, he slashed an impressive .278/.354/.506 with 20 home runs in just 376 trips to the plate.

While that impressive display of power combined with Contreras’s 10.4% walk rate was enough to make him the 12th most valuable catcher in all of baseball last year, there were reasons to wonder if the youngster would be able to maintain his production going forward. Contreras’s 27.7% strikeout rate left plenty of reason for concern, as was a massive .344 BABIP. With those potential red flags signalling possible regression in Contreras’s future, it’s hardly a surprise to find that his .370 wOBA in 2022 outstripped his .347 xwOBA considerably.

Far more concerning than his offensive numbers, which were excellent for a catcher even if they regressed to match his expected numbers, was his glovework behind the plate. In 2022, Contreras was worth -7 runs per Statcast’s catcher defense metric, with negative marks in each of framing, stealing, and blocking. His framing, in particular, left much to be desired, as he landed in just the 20th percentile of all catchers in terms of catcher framing runs, with only 3 catchers in the sport posting a worse figure than Contreras’s -3 without receiving more pitches than him. Fielding Bible’s DRS agreed with that assessment, as Contreras’s -4 mark put him in the bottom 20 of all catchers last year.

With so many questions regarding Contreras’s fielding and his ability to maintain last year’s excellent offensive production, it makes perfect sense for the Braves to prefer a fully developed, surefire starting catcher in the form of Murphy. That preference created a window of opportunity for the Brewers, however, who had just lost their current starting catcher, Omar Narvaez, to free agency. The club had a history of helping bat-first catchers develop defensively, including with Narvaez himself.

This year, Milwaukee has managed to add Contreras to their list of defensive success stories behind the plate. It’s been a transformational year defensively for Contreras, as the youngster has soared to an excellent +8 runs per Statcast, with his catcher framing runs in particular leaping from -3 all the way up to +7, the seventh-best mark in the sport this year behind only defensive stalwarts like Murphy, Austin Hedges, and Jonah Heim. Once again, DRS backs up Contreras’s improvement behind the dish as well, as his +7 DRS leaves him as the eighth most valuable defensive catcher in baseball according to the metric, even clocking in ahead of Murphy.

Contreras’s defense is clearly the star of the show when discussing his year-to-year improvement, but his offensive adjustments deserve a mention as well. While he has undergone some expected offensive regression from his All-Star campaign in 2022, particularly in the power department, his current production is not only still excellent for a catcher (his 113 wRC+ ranks 6th among catchers with at least 300 PA this season) but also appears far more sustainable going forward. His BABIP has dipped to a less outlandish .327 figure, but most importantly, Contreras has cut his strikeout rate to just 20.4%, a figure that’s actually better than league average. While his walk rate has dipped slightly and he isn’t hitting for as much power this season, this new version of Contreras is posting a strong .341 wOBA that matches his .338 xwOBA, indicating a level of sustainability that couldn’t be found in last season’s power-driven numbers.

Contreras isn’t the only player the Brewers received in last year’s trade, of course. While pitching prospect Justin Yeager has managed just 2 1/3 innings of work this season while spending almost the entire year on the injured list, right-handed reliever Joel Payamps has also proved to be a revelation with Milwaukee, though not quite as impactful of one as Contreras. Payamps came to the Brewers as a solid if unexciting middle reliever, with a career 3.35 ERA and 4.19 FIP in 113 innings of work with the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Royals, and A’s.

Since joining the Brewers, however, he’s looked like a different pitcher entirely. His walk rate dipped from a career 7.6% mark entering 2023 to just 5% this season, while his strikeout rate ballooned from a career mark of just 17.6% entering the year to an incredible 29.3% figure with Milwaukee. Those improvements are seemingly thanks to a combination of across-the-board velocity gains and change in his pitch-mix to emphasis his slider. Payamps’ step forward has allowed the Brewers to rely on him as the primary set-up man to closer Devin Williams, forming a lethal duo at the back of the club’s bullpen.

As with any trade, a few months isn’t enough time to understand the full scope of the impact last year’s three-team blockbuster will have on the clubs involved. Ruiz, who has posted a wRC+ of just 81 with Oakland this year but has offered plus defense in center field and swiped a whopping 48 bags, could prove to be a valuable piece in the coming years and change the perception of the deal. True as that may be, however, Milwaukee’s front office is surely delighted with the early returns on the deal, particularly considering they control Payamps through the end of the 2026 campaign and Contreras through the end of 2027.

Braves get catcher Sean Murphy, giving up Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas, Justin Yeager, Freddy Tarnok, Manny Piña and William Contreras.

Brewers get William Contreras, Joel Payamps, Justin Yeager, giving up Esteury Ruiz.

A’s get Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas and Manny Piña, giving up Sean Murphy and Joel Payamps.

The deal is official, with the clubs all making announcements.

This move finally brings an end to a trade saga that has been going on for about a year now. After the 2021 season, the A’s leaned hard into a rebuild that saw them trade away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt before Opening Day, with Frankie Montas getting flipped at the 2022 deadline.

Murphy was widely seen as the next to go for a number of reasons. Firstly, he just crossed three years of MLB service time in 2022 and will now be making higher salaries via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Murphy will jump to $3.5MM in 2023 with two further bumps before reaching free agency after 2025. Secondly, the A’s received a highly-touted catching prospect from Atlanta in the Olson deal in Shea Langeliers. He had an excellent season in Triple-A and carried himself well in a 40-game debut in the majors. Given all those factors, it seemed more and more likely that the A’s would hand the job over to Langeliers and trade Murphy for improvements elsewhere on the roster.

By taking this path, the A’s are parting with one of the best catchers in the game. The 28-year-old Murphy has 330 games in the big leagues under his belt thus far and has performed well in just about every facet of the game. He’s hit 46 home runs and has a combined batting line of .236/.326/.429. That production leads to a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16% above the league average hitter and even further ahead of the average catcher, since they generally come in a bit lower than others. He also took a step forward at the plate in 2022, striking out in just 20.3% of his plate appearances after being above 25% in his career prior to that.

Defensively, Murphy gets rave reviews as well. Since the start of 2020, he’s posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate, a number that places him in the top 10 in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric gives him a 19.5 in that timeframe, the third-highest such tally. Those all-around contributions have allowed him to produce 10 wins above replacement in those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, second among all MLB catchers with only J.T. Realmuto ahead of him.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s hardly surprising that Murphy garnered plenty of interest around the league. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals were some of the teams connected to him at various points in recent months. It was reported about a week ago that the Braves were getting close to acquiring him but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos shot down those reports, saying that he didn’t anticipate a trade. That was either a bluff or something drastically changed in the past week since Atlanta have now indeed closed the deal. This is now the third huge deal Anthopoulos has negotiated with the A’s, though David Forst has since taken over baseball operations from Billy Beane. He acquired Josh Donaldson when he was working for the Blue Jays and has now nabbed Olson and Murphy for the Braves.

Atlanta always seemed a curious fit for Murphy given that they already had three viable catchers on the roster in Contreras, Piña and Travis d’Arnaud. They have cleared out that logjam and acquired Murphy in one fell swoop by including two of those catchers in the deal. On the surface, it seems that the club was keen to swap out Contreras for Murphy as a way of improving behind the plate. However, since the A’s seem set to give Langeliers a shot, it’s possible they were less interested in Contreras, which necessitated Milwaukee’s involvement.

That’s not to say that Contreras isn’t an exciting young catcher in his own right. It’s just that, as mentioned, Murphy is one of the best in the game. Contreras will now join his older brother Willson Contreras, who recently signed with the Cardinals, in the NL Central. The younger Contreras has gotten into 153 games in his career so far, hitting 28 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .260/.338/.471 for a wRC+ of 121. His defensive work isn’t as highly rated as his bat, but he’s still quite young, turning 25 later this month. Even with subpar defense, he’s produced 2.5 fWAR in his brief career thus far, meaning any developments in that department would make him tremendously valuable. It had been recently reported that the Brewers were interested in catching upgrades, but since the club has been paring back a tight payroll, they never seemed like candidates for a big free agent splash. Instead, they’ve acquired a young backstop who has yet to reach arbitration eligibility and has five years of club control remaining. The club has also added a couple of depth arms in Payamps and Yeager.

For the A’s, it’s been reported that they have been prioritizing MLB-ready talent in their trade talks and they have achieved that here. Muller, 25, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons, logging 49 innings so far. He has an unimpressive 5.14 ERA in that time, but he’s fared much better in the minors. He’s made 40 Triple-A starts in the past two years and has a 3.40 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the top prospect in Atlanta’s system.

Ruiz has spent most of his career in the Padres’ system but he went to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade last year. He has some MLB experience, having played in 17 games this year between the two clubs. In 114 minor league games, he hit .332/.447/.526 while stealing 85 bases in 114 games. BA has not yet published their list of top Milwaukee prospects for this offseason, but Ben Badler of BA tweets that Ruiz was going to be in the #8 slot.

Tarnok also has very limited MLB experience, with 2/3 of an inning on the books so far. He threw 106 2/3 innings in the minors this year with a 4.05 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. He ranked #9 on the BA list of top Atlanta prospects. Piña is a 35-year-old veteran who is likely to serve as insurance in case Langeliers struggles or needs some veteran guidance. He signed a two-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta but required season-ending wrist surgery in May. He’ll earn $4.5MM in 2023 with a $4MM club option for 2024 with no buyout.

The one prospect who isn’t likely to help the big league club immediately is Salinas. He turns 22 in April and split the most recent season between Single-A and High-A. He posted a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts with a huge 37.6% strikeout rate but a 13.5% walk rate. Baseball America recently placed him #7 on their list of Atlanta prospects.

The Braves were facing a challenge in the NL East despite having won the division in five straight seasons. The Mets and Phillies have been been spending wildly to upgrade for the coming season. The Mets have added Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, José Quintana and David Robertson, in addition to re-signing Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. The Phillies have signed Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The Braves were going to face a challenge in keeping up with that pace since they were nearing the luxury tax. As is his wont, Anthopoulos has turned to the trade market to make his upgrades. The club still has a question mark at shortstop, with Dansby Swanson having departed for free agency. They could always bring him back though they reportedly haven’t been talking much this offseason. After this trade, the club’s CBT figure is at $229MM, per Roster Resource, just shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold for next year.

For the Brewers, they’ve parted with an outfield prospect they just acquired but have added an exciting young catcher, something they would be challenged to do in free agency with their payroll constraints. For the A’s, they have parted with yet another established major leaguer, adding to the list of quality players they’ve sent out the door. In exchange, they’ve brought in one veteran backstop and four young players that they hope can be a part of forming the next competitive core in Oakland.

Talkin’ Jake of Jomboy Media first reported that the Braves, Brewers and A’s were lining up on a deal, as well as the involvement of Contreras (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Murphy going to the Braves, as well as the involvement of Piña and the eventual final deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first mentioned Ruiz and Tarnok (Twitter links). Joel Sherman first mentioned Payamps and Yeager on Twitter. Kiley McDaniel first had Muller’s name on Twitter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.

While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.

That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.

Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.

Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).

Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.

Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.

The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.

Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras’ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.

As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.

Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.

However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.

Elder, 22, somewhat incredibly becomes the second Braves draftee from the shortened, five-round 2020 amateur draft to reach the Majors. He and teammate Spencer Strider have both had meteoric rises through the minors and now represent two of the just five players from the 2020 draft already in the Majors. Elder (fifth round) and Strider (fourth) are the only non-first-rounders from that draft already in the Majors.

Looking at last year’s numbers, it’s perhaps not a shock that Elder was such a quick riser. He opened the 2021 season with 45 innings of 2.60 ERA ball against older competition in Class-A Advanced before tossing 56 frames of 3.21 ERA ball upon promotion to the Double-A level. Elder was then bumped to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he logged a 2.21 ERA in 36 2/3 frames despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the league.

Elder kept his strikeout rate above 27% the entire time and also posted ground-ball rates of at least 53.6% at each level, although command was more of a concern. Elder walked 57 of the 559 batters he faced (10.2%) and was particularly spotty in that regard against more advanced hitters at the Triple-A level (13.6%).

Baseball America ranks Elder sixth among Braves farmhands, noting that while the system has more powerful arms, Elder is the prototypical “pitchability” starter who’s a good bet to hold a spot in a rotation due to a five-pitch mix headlined by a sinker, plus slider and above-average changeup. Improving on his command will be key to further development for Elder, but he’ll have the opportunity to do so at the MLB level given the lack of proven starters for the Braves at the moment. Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson are all secure in their rotation spots, but Kyle Wright, Huascar Ynoa and Tucker Davidson have not yet solidified themself as long-term options. Mike Soroka, meanwhile, is on the shelf until this summer as he rehabs an Achilles injury.

As for the 27-year-old Tromp, he’ll lose his roster spot after four productive games in Gwinnett, where he’s gone 5-for-14 with a home run and a double. Tromp spent the bulk of the past two seasons in the Giants organization, batting .215/.220/.418 in a tiny sample of 82 Major League plate appearances. Atlanta claimed him off waivers from San Francisco last September. Tromp didn’t have a productive 2021 season in Triple-A, where he’s a career .254/.314/.412 hitter in parts of five seasons.

The Braves will have a week to trade Tromp, place him on outright waivers or release him. Teams are always on the lookout for catching depth, so there’s always a chance that a 27-year-old catcher with a pair of minor league options remaining will find a new home on the waiver wire.

Like Kilambi, Zauzmer is also young (29), has a background in analytics, and already has amassed an impressive resume early in his career in baseball.  Zauzmer joined the Mets only last year after a six-year stint in the Dodgers’ analytics department, but quickly established himself as an important figure in New York’s front office.  This resulted in Zauzmer getting an assistant GM job with the Mets themselves, as the team announced the promotion in late December.

More from around the NL East…

• Also from the Mets, Jason Lefkowitz had been a candidate for an assistant hitting coach position, but Joel Sherman of The New York Post tweets that the Mets are instead “going in another direction.”  A former scout for the Mariners and Astros, Lefkowitz runs a high performance baseball training facility.  Back in August, the NY Post’s Greg Joyce wrote about Lefkowitz’s work with Yankees prospect Anthony Volpe prior to the 2021 season, and Volpe delivered a huge year at A-ball that has put him in the conversation as one of baseball’s top prospects.  The Mets are still in the process of finalizing Buck Showalter’s coaching staff, though the lead hitting coach role was filled by Eric Chavez earlier this month.
• When the Braves signed Manny Pina in November to share catching duties with Travis d’Arnaud, it immediately created speculation that either William Contreras and Shea Langeliers could be used as trade chips.  In the opinion of both The Athletic’s David O’Brien and an overwhelming 85.3% of respondents to a poll of Braves-related topics, Contreras seems the likelier of the two to be moved.  Both catchers are 24 years old and Langeliers has yet to debut in the majors, though he is a higher-rated prospect, garnering top-100 attention in each of the last two seasons.  Contreras has hit .225/.308/.405 in a small sample of 195 plate appearances at the big league level, though as O’Brien notes, defense is Contreras’ bigger issue.  There is no guarantee, of course, that Atlanta might deal any of its catchers, as d’Arnaud’s long injury history would seemingly require the team to have a bit more extra depth behind the plate.  The Contreras family are no strangers to trade buzz at this point, since William’s older brother Willson Contreras may also be available for teams in need of more established catching help.

With Travis d’Arnaud injured for much of the season and not expected back until August, the Braves have gotten sub-replacement level production from the catching position this season, ranking 29th of 30 teams in catcher bWAR.  Contreras initially looked good after being called up from Triple-A, but his bat cooled off, leaving the 23-year-old with a modest .204/.278/.387 slash line and seven home runs in 158 plate appearances.

It’s probably safe to assume that Contreras will be recalled at some point this season, perhaps as soon as he gets his timing back and strings together some good games at the plate for Triple-A Gwinnett.  In the interim, Atlanta will make do at catcher with the veteran combo of Lucroy and Kevan Smith, and Alex Jackson is also on a rehab assignment after missing two months with a strained hamstring and an injured finger.

Lucroy inked a minor league deal with the Braves in May, about a month after he chose free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Nationals’ alternate training site.  Lucroy appeared in five games with Washington this season and one game with the Red Sox in 2020, and it has now been several seasons since the former All-Star has been a significant force in a lineup.

Until Jackson is ready to return, Lucroy and Smith could essentially be competing to see who remains on the MLB roster, though Atlanta could also opt to keep the two veterans on hand and keep the less-experienced Jackson at Triple-A.  While d’Arnaud’s return should theoretically stabilize matters, the Braves could certainly look to acquire catching help at the trade deadline, adding some depth in case d’Arnaud has a setback.

May 1: Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud is headed to the injured list after suffering a left thumb injury in tonight’s game with the Blue Jays, manager Brian Snitker told David O’Brien of The Athletic and other reporters.  More will be known about d’Arnaud’s injury after he undergoes tests, though Snitker bluntly described the situation as “not good.”  D’Arnaud isn’t staying with the team on the road, as he is heading back to Atlanta to visit team doctors on Sunday.

D’Arnaud suffered the injury on a play at the plate in the sixth inning.  The catcher tagged out Randal Grichuk on Grichuk’s attempt to score from first on a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. double, but d’Arnaud immediately indicated he was hurt, and was replaced in the game by Alex Jackson.

William Contreras will be called up prior to tomorrow’s game to take d’Arnaud’s spot on the active roster.  Contreras made his MLB debut with four games for Atlanta last season, and it is perhaps little surprising that the Braves are going with the inexperienced Contreras over 14-year veteran Jeff Mathis, who signed a minor league deal just prior to Opening Day.

Atlanta does have a full 40-man roster, however, and would have to open up a spot in order to officially select Mathis’ contract.  Contreras is also a noteworthy prospect (ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Braves’ sixth-best minor leaguer), and it could be that the team wants to give Contreras some seasoning in advance of a potentially larger role for 2022 and beyond.

D’Arnaud was off to a slow start this season, hitting .220/.253/.341 through his first 87 PA.  Though d’Arnaud has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, he was able to stay mostly healthy in 2019-20 and was very productive, including a .321/.386/.533 performance over 184 PA in 2020 that won him a Silver Slugger Award.  It was a strong early return on the two-year, $16MM free agent deal the Braves made with d’Arnaud in the 2019-20 offseason.

Just like that, the Braves have undergone a complete line change at the catching position. Along with William Contreras, the Braves selected the contract of Jeff Mathis. The veteran defensive specialist joined Atlanta on a minor league contract at the end of March. It is not hyperbole to label the 38-year-old Mathis a defensive savant behind the plate. His defensive wizardry has propped up a 16-year career despite a paltry .194/.253/.300 batting line across 3,006 plate appearances.

Interestingly, the Braves also have Tyler Flowers lurking within the organization. Flowers took on a strategic role with the Braves this season helping to integrate analytics into in-game preparation for the Braves’ catchers. While it’s largely assumed that the 35-year-old’s playing career is done, both Flowers and the Braves left open the possibility that he could return to active duty this season. Certainly, the ranks are thinning in Atlanta, and speculatively speaking, they must be considering whether it might be time to give serious consideration to a Flowers return.

For now, however, it seems Contreras will get the bulk of the playing time in Atlanta. The 22-year-old went 4-for-10 in a cup-of-coffee last season. Fangraphs had him as the sixth-ranked prospect in Atlanta’s system prior to this season. He is the younger brother of Cubs’ standout Willson Contreras.

MARCH 27, 1:25 pm: Lamb has been released, per a team announcement. While he signed a major league contract in February, it was non-guaranteed. Therefore, the Braves will only be on the hook for a portion of his $1MM salary. The move drops Atlanta’s 40-man roster count to 39. Lamb will again become a free agent.

Atlanta will also option Camargo and catcher William Contreras to the alternate training site to open the year, per David O’Brien of the Athletic (Twitter link). In addition to Sandoval and Adrianza, backup catcher Alex Jackson and fourth outfielder Ender Inciarte will fill out the season-opening bench.

10:48 am: The Braves announced this morning they’ve selected the contract of corner infielder Pablo Sandoval. Outfielder Phil Ervin has been designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster space. Additionally, the Braves released non-roster utilityman Jason Kipnis.

Sandoval made Atlanta’s roster late last season and picked up four postseason plate appearances. The Braves brought him back on a minor-league deal in January, and he’ll now earn a season-opening spot on the active roster. Sandoval will join a crowded but still uncertain third base mix in Atlanta, where Austin Riley, Johan Camargo, Jake Lamb and the newly-added Ehire Adrianza could all get playing time. Sandoval, 34, only hit .214/.287/.262 over 94 plate appearances last season, but he was an above-average hitter as recently as 2019 with the Giants.

Ervin has bounced around via waivers from the Reds to the Mariners to the Cubs and to Atlanta since last summer. The 28-year-old hit fairly well over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati but stumbled to a .149/.292/.189 mark last season. Teams remained intrigued by Ervin’s combination of otherwise decent offense and ability to play all three outfield positions, but the out-of-options outfielder has had trouble sticking on an active roster. Atlanta has a week to trade Ervin or place him on outright waivers.

Kipnis signed a minor-league deal with Atlanta after spending last season with the Cubs. The former Indians second baseman hit .237/.341/.404 with Chicago in 2020. He’ll now return to the open market in search of a new opportunity.

NL West

• The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
• The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
• The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
• The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
• The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona’s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.

NL Central

• The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
• Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
• The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
• Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
• The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.

NL East

• Yesterday, the Braves announced the addition of five prospects to their 40-man roster: outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher William Contreras, right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz and lefties Tucker Davidson and Phil Pfeifer. (More about those moves here.)
• The Nationals announced that they have selected the contract of southpaw Ben Braymer. They still have a huge amount of 40-man flexibility to work with. Even after this move, the Nats have nine openings. The organization also surely expects to fill many of those slots with free agents and/or trade acquisitions after losing quite a few significant players to the open market. Braymer is a former 18th rounder out of Auburn who had a nice run last year at Double-A before being hit hard in the batter-friendly International League.
• The Phillies picked up lefty Cristopher Sanchez in a trade with the Rays and added him to the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also selected the contracts of lefties JoJo Romero and Garrett Cleavinger and right-hander Mauricio Llovera. (Details on those moves here.)
• The Mets announced the additions of Andres Gimenez, Thomas Szapucki, Ali Sanchez and Jordan Humphreys to the 40-man roster and designated righty Drew Gagnon for assignment. (More on those moves here).
• The Marlins opened some eyes by eating the remaining $22MM on Wei-Yin Chen’s contract and adding six prospects to the 40-man roster: Sixto Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Nick Neidert, Jazz Chisholm, Humberto Mejia and Edward Cabrera. (More details here.)

Each of Pache, Contreras, De La Cruz and Davidson rank inside the Braves’ top 15 prospects over at MLB.com, with Pache considered to be among the elite prospects in all of baseball. Pache, who turns 21 today, is an elite center field defender who is fresh off a .277/.340/.462 batting line put together against vastly older competition between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Contreras, also 21, is the younger brother of Cubs backstop Willson Contreras. He hit .255/.314/.354 in 416 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2019.

Both Davidson, 24, and Pfeifer, 27, reached Triple-A for the first time this season, though both pitchers’ time with Atlanta’s Gwinnett affiliate was brief late in the season. De La Cruz, meanwhile, topped out at Double-A. All three worked more as starters than relievers, giving the Braves another wave of near-MLB arms from which they could draw during the upcoming 2020 season.

The addition of all five prospects protects them from being selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. The deadline for all 30 MLB teams to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft is tomorrow evening. Atlanta’s 40-man roster is now up to a count of 38 players.