6:00pm: The Mariners parted ways with longtime manager Scott Servais earlier this week, and the now ex-manager spoke with reporters on the club’s beat (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) yesterday regarding his time in Seattle and the club’s decision to part ways with him.

Servais indicated during his remarks that he had previously thought that if the club missed the playoffs this year, that could lead to the end of his nine-year tenure as the Mariners’ manager. Even, so Servais expressed surprise at the club’s decision to part ways with him midseason, noting (as relayed by Kramer) that his “expectation was that [he’d] get to finish out the year” while also adding that he first heard of his dismissal via news alert on his phone prior to his in-person meeting with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, an experience that Servais described as “alarming.”

The 57-year-old was first hired to lead the Mariners back in 2016. Servais had a 681-642 record during his time at the helm of the Mariners, good for a .515 winning percentage despite the fact that his teams made the postseason just once back in 2021 and never won the AL West under his guidance. Despite that relative lack of on-field success, Servais received votes for the AL Manager of the Year award three times during his tenure with the Mariners, including a third-place finish in 2022 and a second-place finish behind two-time winner Kevin Cash back in 2021.

Per Kramer, Servais indicated to reporters that he hopes his split with Seattle won’t mark the end of his managerial career. At least one job opportunity is set to be available this winter after the White Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol earlier this month. Grady Sizemore is currently acting as the club’s interim manager, although White Sox brass have already indicated that the club expects to look for a long-term solution outside of the organization. There’s also some level of uncertainty in the Rockies dugout as the club waits until after the season to discuss the future of manager Bud Black amid what officially became the club’s sixth consecutive losing season yesterday with their 0-3 loss to the Yankees.

More from around Seattle…

• The club was dealt a bit of an injury scare earlier today when outfielder Victor Robles was struck by a pitch on his right hand during today’s game against the Giants. He exited the game after the incident, but the club fortunately announced shortly thereafter that x-rays had come back negative on the former top prospect’s hand and that he had been diagnosed with a right index finger contusion. The 27-year-old has impressed with a .280/.340/.413 slash line and a 14-0 record on the basepaths in 50 games with the Mariners since signing with them back in June, and while losing their leadoff hitter for any amount of time will surely be a blow, Seattle is a bit better equipped to handle an absence from Robles after young phenom Julio Rodriguez returned to center field yesterday. The 23-year-old has been back from a recent high ankle sprain for two weeks now but had been relegated to DH-only duties until yesterday, when he was finally cleared to return to the field. That kicked Robles over to right field, which now figures to be covered by some combination of Mitch Haniger, Dominic Canzone, and Luke Raley as he nurses his injured finger.
• While it’s possible that today’s finger contusion could keep Robles out of the lineup for the time being, the Mariners did receive some refreshing injury news yesterday when reporters spoke to shortstop J.P. Crawford as relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker. Crawford took batting practice on the field yesterday and, in conversation with reporters afterwards, indicated that he could begin a rehab assignment early in this next coming week. Crawford has been out for just over a month now while nursing a fractured pinkie finger. The 29-year-old was in the midst of a down season when bitten by the injury bug, with a .204/.299/.347 slash line in 77 games this year, and switch-hitting rookie Leo Rivas has impressed in 26 games while covering for the club’s regular shortstop. Still, Crawford’s return should improve the club’s overall infield mix by allowing Rivas to help carry the load at second and third base alongside Jorge Polanco and Josh Rojas.

We had some technical difficulties during this recording, so the audio is of a lower quality than usual. Apologies for that, but the source has been discovered and everything will be back to normal next week. This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• White Sox fire manager Pedro Grifol and three coaches (1:10)
• Víctor Robles and the Mariners signed an extension (6:40)
• Dodgers move Mookie Betts back to right field and Amed Rosario is designated for assignment (12:15)
• Left-hander Jesus Luzardo won’t return to the Marlins this year and the club is getting rid of several front office members (17:20)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Will Camilo Doval pitch again this season (or ever) for the Giants? (25:10)
• What ever happened to Archie Bradley this season? (29:20)
• Well, if your offense stops failing you, let the pitching failures take the spotlight! As a Braves fan, I am feeling quite trampled after all the high expectations that this season came with. Should I forget any postseason hopes? (31:00)

Check out our past episodes!

• Fallout From The Trade Deadline And Mike Trout Injured Again – listen here
• Trade Deadline Recap – listen here
• Trade Deadline Preview – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The deal is a demonstration of what a remarkable turnaround it’s been for Robles in the past two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for assignment at the end of May. They reportedly then explored trades with other clubs but couldn’t find any takers. Since Robles had enough service time to reject an outright assignment while keeping what remained of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats simply released him.

The Mariners took a shot on him, which essentially came with no risk. The Nats were still on the hook for most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.

For that minimal investment, the Mariners have already been hugely rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% better than league average offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is definitely on the high side but he’s only striking out at a 16.3% rate and that would be strong offense even with a bit of regression.

That’s especially true because Robles is capable of providing value even when he doesn’t have the bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and provided competent glovework in the outfield, playing all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth 1.2 wins above replacement already in his brief stint with the Mariners.

That has been especially valuable for a club that has struggled to generate offense this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops in the majors, but the lack of punch at the plate has kept them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

Robles was an impending free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two and maybe three years. Of course, they’re not just making this decision based on the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in the sport. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as fifth overall in 2018.

He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit below par, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to produce 3.7 fWAR thanks to his defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he was about to become.

Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance dropped significantly for the next few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend some time on the injured list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.

Despite those struggles, the Nats stuck by him, continually tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to be getting things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, but he was limited to just 36 games on the season because of back spasms in the lumbar spine. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping that Robles could both stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But this year got out to a shaky start, as Robles missed about a month due to a left hamstring strain and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to cut him loose.

The Mariners have been rewarded with the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past prospect pedigree and his recent performance clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can keep producing for a few more years. There is obviously some risk there based on how poorly he has performed at times in the past, but they are also not sticking their neck out with vast sums of money.

The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is fairly modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of resources. And if he can continue to keep hitting, then there’s plenty of upside for the M’s.

For Robles, he is perhaps leaving a bit of money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he would want to lock in some significant earnings. If he had continued to perform at this level for the rest of the season, he likely would have earned a larger guarantee than the one he’s agreeing to now. But as he surely knows from the winding path of his career, it’s not a guarantee that it will continue to go so well. After all, it was just two months ago that all the clubs in the league passed on the chance to acquire him while he’s making a fairly modest salary. If Robles had suffered another injury or simply struggled at the plate down the stretch, he may not have been able to secure a guarantee of even this size.

He also still has future earning power that he could tap into if he keeps performing. Due to debuting at such a young age, he’s still just 27 years old. This deal will cover his age-28 and -29 seasons with the option giving the M’s a chance to control him through his age-30 season. If he’s able to keep up his all-around performance through the course of this contract, he could line himself up for a more sizable deal at that point. If the option is triggered and he hits those escalators, he will have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.

The Mariners also get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They already have Julio Rodríguez locked in for many years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable via arbitration through 2026. Mitch Haniger has one more year on his deal after this and the club also has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in the mix, though Raley has been getting a lot of playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner figures to be in the designated hitter spot a lot for the rest of this year but is an impending free agent.

It’s arguably a crowded mix but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal from this group in the offseason if the opportunity presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a player who is perhaps breaking out, but without breaking the bank. Robles, meanwhile, has secured himself a really nice bit of financial security that didn’t seem possible just a few short weeks ago.

Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75MM guarantee (Spanish-language link on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year length, club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided the specifics of the bonuses/escalators as well as the signing bonus (X link).

Robles, 27, was once a top prospect with the Nationals but has repeatedly struggled in recent years, both with underwhelming performance and injury absences. The Nats finally decided to move on last week and designated him for assignment. They seemingly explored trades but couldn’t find a deal to their liking and eventually released Robles. The Nats remain on the hook for his $2.65MM salary, meaning the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated portion of the $740K league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.

That makes it a fairly low-risk move for the Mariners, who will surely be hoping Robles can revert to his earlier career form. A few years ago, he was one of the top prospects in the whole league, with Baseball America giving him the #5 spot going into 2018 and the #11 slot the year after.

He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, when he was just 22 years old. He hit 17 home runs for the Nats that season and stole 28 bases while also providing elite defense in center field. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.7 wins above replacement that year and his strong performance helped the club reach the postseason, eventually winning the World Series.

Unfortunately, his performance slipped after that season and he hasn’t been able to get it back on track. He hit just .220/.293/.315 in the shortened 2020 season and produced fairly similar numbers in the two full seasons that followed, leading to a batting line of .216/.291/.306 over the 2020-22 period.

The fortunes of the club also faded in that time and the Nats entered a rebuilding phase. That should have left Robles with plenty of chances to turn things around but his health didn’t cooperate. He only got into 36 games last year due to back spasms in the lumbar spine and missed about a month of the current campaign due to a left hamstring strain. He managed to show some encouraging signs last year, hitting .299/.385/.364 despite the back problems, but has produced a brutal line of .120/.281/.120 so far this year.

Despite all the struggles, Robles is still young and could engineer a comeback. As mentioned, he was hitting okay last year. That didn’t carry over into this season, but he won’t maintain a .176 batting average on balls in play and it’s perhaps a good sign that he has drawn walks at a strong rate of 15.2% this year. That’s in a small sample of 33 plate appearances but it’s more than double his career rate of 6.2%, so it could be a nice step forward even if it regresses a bit.

The Mariners currently have an outfield/designated hitter mix consisting of Julio Rodríguez, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone and Mitch Haniger. It’s possible that Robles will be utilized in the short side of a platoon. The right-handed hitter has slashed .262/.353/.373 against lefties and .226/.293/.349 against righties, leading to respective wRC+ counts of 101 and 72. Both Raley and Canzone are lefties with notable platoon splits. Raley has a 119 wRC+ against righties and 84 otherwise, with Canzone’s numbers at 86 against southpaws and 65 versus righties.

The M’s can use Robles to shield Raley and/or Canzone from some lefties while also perhaps using Robles for pinch running duties or as a late-game defensive replacement. For his part, Robles will get a chance to reinvent himself with a chance of scenery before he’s slated for free agency this winter.

MAY 27: The Nationals announced today that outfielder Lane Thomas has been reinstated from the injured list with fellow outfielder Víctor Robles designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Robles, now 27, was once the club’s top prospect and one of the top prospects in the entire league. Per the rankings from Baseball America, he was the Nationals’ #1 prospect in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. He was also on BA’s top 100 league-wide list from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as #5 overall going into 2018.  The expectation at that time was that Robles had the capability of being an all-around contributor and a long-term part of the outfield in Washington.

Things seemed to be in a good place in 2019, the year the Nats won the World Series. Robles hit 17 home runs and slashed .255/.326/.419. Despite the long balls, his 5.7% walk rate kept the on-base low and the wRC+ of 92 indicates he was actually a bit below average offensively overall. But thanks to above-average defense and stealing 28 bases, FanGraphs credited him as being worth 3.7 wins above replacement in his age-22 season.

Given his youth, the Nats undoubtedly expected him to continue evolving as a hitter as he aged. Unfortunately, things moved in the opposite direction in the years to come. From 2020 to 2022, Robles got into 291 games with the Nats but hit just .216/.291/.306 in that time for a wRC+ of 66. The club’s fortunes also faded in that time and they entered a rebuilding phase.

That theoretically left Robles with plenty of playing time to get back on track, but his health hasn’t really allowed him to do so. He only got into 36 games last year due to back spasms in the lumbar spine. He did perform well when on the field, hitting a solid .299/.385/.364, but hasn’t carried that over in 2024. He spent about a month on the injured list due to left hamstring strain and has produced a brutal line of .120/.281/.120 in the 14 games he has played.

Robles was slated to reach free agency after the 2024 campaign and the Nationals were likely hoping for a nice run of play this season, at least allowing them to flip Robles for something at the deadline before he slipped away from them for nothing. Unfortunately, his performance hasn’t inspired much confidence and they are cutting him off the roster today.

They will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers, though any interest is likely to be fairly modest after years of poor performance and injury absences. He’s making a salary of $2.65MM this year, with still about two thirds of that left to be paid out. Perhaps the Nats will try to eat some of that money to facilitate a deal but it’s also possible that Robles just ends up released. He has enough service time that he can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency while keeping all that money intact.

It’s undeniably been a disappointing few years and hardly what the club had in mind, given the prospect pedigree and the promising start to his career. But for Robles personally, it’s not too late for him to find a second act somewhere. He just turned 27 last week and could perhaps get back on track with a run of good health and the right opportunity.

Perhaps more notably, Martinez indicated that Robles isn’t likely to take back the starting job in center field upon his return. 24-year-old youngster Jacob Young has made a strong impression as a regular in Robles’s absence, with a .311/.354/.378 slash line in 81 trips to the plate. That production is good for a 113 wRC+, and Young has also gone 12-for-13 on the basepaths. That type of offensive production would be hard for the club to part with, but its nonetheless surprising that the Nationals don’t plan to return Robles, a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport who has patrolled the position for eight seasons, to his usual spot in the lineup.

With Young seemingly taking over as the regular center fielder long term, Martinez noted that Robles will still play center field on occasion but “could play some right field as well.” The club has relied on Eddie Rosario and Alex Call in right field as of late, with the veteran Rosario struggling badly to an eye-popping -10 wRC+ to this point in the season that indicates he’s been 110% worse than league average at the plate. Call has impressed with five hits and three walks in 21 trips to the plate this season, but that production has come across just seven games at the big league level.

More from around the NL East…

• The Phillies suffered a major injury scare last night when third baseman Alec Bohm exited the club’s win over the Giants with right hip tightness. The move was labeled precautionary by manager Rob Thomson (as noted by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) in the aftermath of yesterday’s game and Bohm himself indicated to reporters (including Coffey) that he isn’t particularly concerned about the issue. That Bohm seemingly won’t require a trip to the injured list is surely a massive relief for Phillies fans, as the club lost Trea Turner to the shelf yesterday and he had been the club’s second best hitter behind Bohm this year. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a look at Bohm’s hot start this season, during which he’s hit a whopping .364/.435/.579 in 138 trips to the plate.
• Braves backstop Sean Murphy has been ramping up baseball activities as he rehabs an oblique injury that sidelined him during the first game of the season back in March. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Murphy had already been ramping up his throwing from behind the plate and caught a few bullpen sessions but has now progressed to swinging the bat, starting with him hitting off a tee during the club’s road trip to Seattle last week. The return of Murphy would surely be a major boost to Atlanta, as the 29-year-old has emerged as one of the best catchers in the sport in recent seasons. That said, veteran Travis d’Arnaud has done exceptionally well in Murphy’s absence, slashing an incredible .269/.341/.564 with a whopping five home runs in just 88 trips to the plate this season.

April 3: Nationals center fielder Victor Robles injured his left hamstring during Wednesday night’s game against the Pirates. He suffered the injury running from first to third on a single in the bottom of the second inning. The former top prospect was making just his second start of the 2024 campaign. After the game, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that Robles would go for an MRI on Thursday.

For what it’s worth, Robles, 26, has suffered hamstring injuries in the past, few of which kept him off the field for long. He dealt with hamstring tightness this spring (per Andrew Golden of the Washington Post), a left hamstring cramp last summer (h/t Zuckerman), left hamstring tightness in May 2021 (h/t Zuckerman), a mild right hamstring strain in October 2019 (h/t Zuckerman), and “hamstring trouble” in April 2017 (per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Only the two earliest instances kept him off the field for more than a game or two.

That said, the Nationals might want to play it safe with Robles, who missed most of the 2023 season with back trouble. What’s more, his speed and outfield range are some of his strongest tools, and surely Washington wants to keep his legs as healthy as possible. Martinez didn’t offer much optimism after the game, telling reporters “I don’t want to assume anything, but [Robles] said he felt it pretty good” (per Nusbaum).

If Robles misses the time, the Nationals can bring up one of Alex Call or Jacob Young, both of whom are on the 40-man roster. Call, 29, has more big league experience, including his 77 starts in center field last season for Washington. Young, 24, started only 32 games in center during his rookie season in 2023, but he took the starting job from Call down the stretch, hitting slightly better and providing extra value on the bases with his 98th-percentile sprint speed. However, Call is coming off a much stronger spring. He posted a 1.099 OPS in 21 games, while Young produced a meager .673 OPS in 20 contests.

Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.

While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.

More from around the NL East…

• Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.
• Mets manager Carlos Mendoza indicated to reporters, including Andrew Crane of the New York Post, recently that infielder Jeff McNeil remains at least a week away from receiving any sort of game action this spring. McNeil suffered a partially torn UCL in his left arm back in September and spent the offseason rehabbing the injury, which has caused the club to proceed with caution regarding a bout of left biceps soreness that first cropped up last week, though McNeil had already not appeared in Grapefruit League games yet since camp opened last month. That said, Crane adds that McNeil made some progress recently when he took dry swings early today without any pain in his biceps. Once healthy, McNeil will look to rebound as the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2024 on the heels of a 2023 campaign that saw the two-time All Star slash a pedestrian .270/.333/.378 in 648 trips to the plate.

Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.

With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.

More from the NL East…

• The Phillies have long been hoping to extend veteran ace Zack Wheeler, and comments from Wheeler himself last week indicated that the sides have opened extension talks with Spring Training now underway. While Wheeler indicated that he’s open to negotiating even once the season begins, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that while extending Wheeler is a “priority” for the club, his preference is for the sides to come together on a deal before the regular season begins. Wheeler has established himself as one of the league’s premiere starters since first suiting up for the Phillies during the shortened 2020 campaign. During his time in Philadelphia, the right-hander has pitched to an excellent 3.06 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 101 starts during the regular season and has augmented that resume with an incredible 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 postseason innings.
• Victor Robles has patrolled center field for the Nationals on a regular basis ever since his rookie season back in 2019, though it’s possible that could change entering the 2024 season. As relayed by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, manager Dave Martinez told reporters recently that there will be a “battle” between Robles and 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young for the starting center field job, though Martinez added that Robles has “a little bit of an upper hand” coming into camp. Robles has largely been a plus-glove center fielder with below average offense throughout his career, though in 2023 he appeared to flash more offensive upside as he slashed a solid .299/.385/.364. Unfortunately, that slash line came across just 126 trips to the plate as Robles spent most of the year on the injured list due to back injuries. Young, meanwhile, held his own in a 33-game cup of coffee in the majors last year with a decent .252/.322/.336 slash line in 122 trips to the plate.
• Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he’s feeling good entering Spring Training and hopes to be ready for Opening Day, though he didn’t rule out a possible IL stint to open the season if he needs time to finish preparing to retake the mound. The 33-year-old’s return to the mound figures to provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s relief corps, as Matzek pitched to strong results over three seasons with the Braves prior to the injury. In 132 combined appearances, the southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work as he struck out 27.4% of batters faced.

García, 24 in May, was a top 100 prospect on his way up to the majors but hasn’t been able to firmly establish himself at the big league level. The rebuilding Nats gave him a chance to take over the keystone last year but he was eventually optioned to the minors in August after hitting just .260/.294/.363 for a wRC+ of 74. He was recalled in September and finished strong with a line of .304/.360/.507 from that point, but in a small sample of just 75 plate appearances.

Unsurprisingly, that brief flash of better results isn’t enough to sway the club’s decision makers. His 1,245 career plate appearances have amounted to a tepid line of .265/.295/.395 and wRC+ of 85. He’s also received poor marks for his glovework at second, with career tallies of -5 Defensive Runs Saved, -16 Outs Above Average and a grade of -7.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Nats still have some faith in him, as he is still on the roster after the non-tender deadline, but it might be a make-or-break year for him. He qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $2.4MM. The fact that he was tendered a contract suggests the Nats are willing to give him another shot at that price point, but he is going to be out of options next year. If he continues to struggle, he could get bumped down into a reserve role or perhaps lose his roster spot entirely. The Nats also have infielders Jeter Downs and Ildemaro Vargas on the roster or could perhaps find external additions if they decide to move on from García at some point.

Turning to the outfield, the desire to find a lefty bat in quite sensible as the current mix leans heavily to the right side. Each of Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Alex Call, Meneses, Robles and Jacob Young are righties. The club signed Corey Dickerson to try to balance things out last year but that didn’t go according to plan. He struggled through the first few months of the season and was released after the club couldn’t flip him at the deadline. The club also has James Wood, one of the top prospects in the league. He hits from the left side but is just 21 years and has yet to reach Triple-A. Even if he does make it the majors in 2024, having him and a veteran addition in the same lineup would hardly be a problem.

How they approach the situation this time around will obviously depend on how much they are willing to spend. Cody Bellinger is the top lefty-hitting outfielder but it would be a shock if a rebuilding club like the Nats outbid the field for his services. Another veteran on a short-term deal similar to the Dickerson signing is probably a safer bet, though the club will obviously be hoping for better results. Jung Hoo Lee has now been posted for MLB clubs but he seems to be quite popular and will require a significant multi-year deal plus a posting fee. Some other lefty-swinging outfielders in free agency include Kevin Kiermaier, Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley.

The trade market is headlined by old friend Juan Soto, but he is widely considered a rental since he already turned down a massive extension from the Nats and is set for free agency after 2024. With the state of Washington’s roster, they don’t make sense for a reunion. It would be a similar situation for someone like Alex Verdugo, who is also a year from the open market. The Cardinals would likely be open to a trade of someone like Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson or Brendan Donovan.

As for Meneses, the club will be looking for a bounceback from him next year. He debuted with a bang in 2022, hitting 13 home runs in the final 56 games of the season. But his first full season in the bigs resulted in just 13 more homers over 154 contests, though Martinez relayed today that Meneses was battling a knee issue during the season. It’s unknown how severe this issue was or when it arose, but it is perhaps the reason for a 2mph drop in his average exit velocity relative to 2022. If getting back to health helps him reverse course, that would provide the club with a nice lineup boost regardless of external additions. In a separate tweet from Golden, Martinez says Meneses is doing agility work now and looking good, hoping to play first base and the outfield next year.

As for Robles, the news is less positive. He missed the second half of 2023 due to back spasms and Martinez relayed that Robles hasn’t played winter ball this offseason since he hasn’t yet proven himself healthy. He still has a couple of months before Spring Training gets going but it’s notable that the issue appears to be lingering. He is going into his final arbitration season before he’s set to become a free agent. Like García, he was once a top prospect that has thus far struggled to firmly establish himself in the big leagues. He currently has a career batting line of .238/.312/.360 in 1,801 plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 81.

Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.

Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.

Cronin, 26, was the club’s fourth-round selection in the 2019 draft. From 2019-22, the left-hander put up solid numbers while advancing from Single-A all the way to Triple-A, capped off by a strong 2022 season where Cronin posted a 2.42 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate in 52 innings of work. That sort of dominance out of the bullpen figured to make Cronin an attractive potential bullpen piece for the rebuilding Nationals headed into 2023, particularly after the Nationals added him to the 40-man roster this past offseason in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things turned out this year. Cronin dealt with pain in his shoulder throughout the year that limited him to just 14 1/3 innings of work during which he struggled to a 5.02 ERA. Back in August, it was revealed that the issue causing the pain was a herniated disc in his back. Cronin underwent surgery to repair the issue and missed the remainder of the 2023 campaign. It’s not clear when Cronin is expected to be healthy enough to return to the mound at this point. Given Cronin’s youth (he only turned 26 back in September) combined with his previous success and status as one of the Nationals’ top 20 prospects (per Baseball America) entering this year, it would hardly be a surprise if a rival club with space on their 40-man roster decided to claim Cronin in the coming days, particularly if he figures to be able to return to the mound in 2024.

Robles, now 26, avoided arbitration with the Nats last offseason. He agreed to a salary of $2.325MM while granting the club a 2024 option valued at $3.3MM. He spent most of 2023 on the injured list due to back spasms, only getting into 36 games.

After a mostly lost season, it’s understandable that the Nats didn’t want to pick up that option and give him a raise of almost $1MM. But he remains on the roster and could be retained for 2024 via arbitration. The projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged Robles at $2.7MM for next year, making it possible the Nats could keep Robles but at a lesser price point than the option they declined today. The non-tender deadline is November 17, so the Nats have a couple of weeks to decide if they want to keep Robles for another year, work out a trade or non-tender him.

Though he was once considered one of the top prospects in the league, he hasn’t yet established himself at the major league level. His speed and defense give him a solid floor but he has hit just .238/.312/.360 in 1,801 plate appearances at the major league level dating back to 2017.

Machado, 30, has been with the Nats since 2021, though he was outrighted off their roster in the offseason. He got added back at the end of April but was clobbered for 16 earned runs in 17 innings, leading to an ERA of 8.47. Having burned all his option years, he was outrighted off their roster again in June and had the right to reject that assignment since it was his second, though he decided to accept and stay in the organization.

Since returning to Rochester, he has thrown 16 1/3 innings with a 4.96 ERA, but with strong peripherals. He’s stuck out 27.9% of batters faced while walking 4.4% of them. A .349 batting average on balls in play and 56.1% strand rate may have pushed some extra runs across, as his FIP is a much more palatable 2.98. That’ll seemingly get him another shot in the Nats bullpen, which is one of the worst in the league. Their collective 5.47 ERA is almost the worst in the majors, just barely better than Oakland’s 5.49. It’s also possible that Kyle Finnegan ends up traded in the next week, since he has garnered some interest.

As for Robles, he was placed on the 10-day IL on June 21 due to back spasms in the lumbar spine, his second IL stint for that issue this year. It seems the club doesn’t expect him back soon, as he’ll now be ineligible to return until mid-August. Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relayed this week that Robles is staying in D.C. for the foreseeable future to do rehab work around the big league club.

It’s another frustrating development for the former top prospect, who has always had speed and defense to offer but generally struggled at the plate. He had hit .233/.306/.359 in his career coming into this season but seemed to show positive strides here in 2023. He has a stronger line of .299/.385/.364 this year while significantly cutting his strikeouts, but the back spasms have limited that to just 36 games.

Robles will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration this offseason, though might not be able to get much of a raise beyond this year’s $2.325MM salary based on all his missed time. He might have been a trade candidate this summer if he were healthy but that’s unfortunately not the case. Players on the IL can be traded but it’s unlikely the interest is high right now, based on his uncertain health status.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.