It will mark Bauer’s second season in NPB and second with the BayStars, after posting a 2.76 ERA over 130 2/3 innings with Yokohama in 2023.  In between his two stints in Japan, Bauer pitched with Diablos Rojos del Mexico in 2024, delivering a 2.48 ERA over 83 1/3 frames.  He signed with the Mexican League club after first exploring the possibility of a return to the majors, as his representatives spoke with some unnamed MLB teams in November 2023.

Bauer pitched in parts of 10 Major League seasons from 2012-21 with the Diamondbacks, Cleveland, Reds, and Dodgers, averaging 181 innings per season from 2014-19.  In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bauer won the NL Cy Young Award after posting a 1.73 ERA over 73 innings with Cincinnati.  Bauer then signed a three-year, $102MM free agent contract with the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, but this tenure in Los Angeles ended after three months and 107 2/3 innings when he was placed on administrative leave pending a league investigation.

That summer, a woman accused Bauer of sexual assault and filed a restraining order against him in California.  Two other women in Ohio later came forward with similar accusations.  In August 2021, a California judge denied the restraining order request, and the Los Angeles district attorney’s office later declined to pursue criminal charges.  As per a statement from the DA’s office, “after a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Because the MLB/MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy doesn’t require criminal charges for the league to take action, Bauer was issued a 324-game suspension (the equivalent of two full seasons) in April 2022.  This record-long suspension was later reduced to 192 games in December 2022 after Bauer appealed the ruling, and the Dodgers released him the next month and ate the $22.5MM remaining on his contract.  Also in 2023, Bauer and his first accuser settled their mutual lawsuits out of court, and another woman reportedly filed a civil action against Bauer accusing him of a sexual assault that took place in Arizona in 2020.

Bauer has not pitched in MLB since June 2021, when an allegation of sexual assault was first publicly reported. Three additional women went public with sexual assault allegations over the next two years. Bauer was never criminally charged, with the L.A. District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed after an investigation into the first woman’s allegations. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” prosecutors said at the time.

MLB nevertheless leveled a 324-game suspension under the joint domestic violence/sexual assault policy with the Players Association. Last December, an arbitrator reduced that figure to 194 games — immediately reinstating Bauer onto the Dodgers’ roster based on the amount of time he had already spent on administrative leave while the investigations played out.

That reduced suspension remains the most significant domestic violence discipline since the policy was introduced in 2015. The Dodgers released Bauer two weeks after the appellate results were announced. In mid-March, he signed a one-year, $4MM contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In October, the civil actions between Bauer and the woman who first brought the allegations were settled outside of court (link via Alden González of ESPN).

Bauer had a successful age-32 campaign in NPB. He posted a 2.76 ERA through 130 2/3 innings while striking out 24.3% of opposing hitters. With that one-year deal complete, he is again a free agent.

According to Schrotenboer, the woman first filed suit against Bauer last December and recently amended the complaint to include additional alleged details. Bauer has denied the allegations and filed a countersuit. Four women have been publicly known to have leveled sexual assault allegations against Bauer within the past few years.

The first of those allegations came to light midway through the 2021 season. The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office elected not to proceed with criminal charges following an investigation, stating they didn’t have enough evidence to prove the charges beyond a reasonable doubt. Two other women subsequently came forward with similar allegations; no criminal charges were filed.

MLB conducted an investigation and handed down a 324-game suspension — the joint domestic violence policy permits the league to impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges — early in the 2022 season. Bauer appealed and sat out the entire season while the appellate process played out. Last December, an arbitration panel reduced the appeal to 194 games, which Bauer had already served while the investigations were pending.

The Dodgers designated Bauer for assignment shortly thereafter. Los Angeles released him in January. Two months later, he signed a one-year contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Bauer has made six NPB appearances this season.

2:41pm: Free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer has agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, as first reported by Japan’s Sankei Sports (Twitter link). Bauer had previously been suspended for 324 games under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Back in December, commissioner Rob Manfred announced that Bauer’s suspension had been reduced, via appeal, to the 194 games he’d already served. He was immediately reinstated, and the Dodgers released him the following month.

For the past two months, Bauer has been a free agent who’s free to sign with any Major League team for the league minimum, as the Dodgers are on the hook for the remainder of his 2023 salary under the terms of the previous three-year, $102MM contract to which they signed him. No team has chosen to do so. It appears Bauer will now head overseas to pitch in Japan’s NPB, widely regarded as the second-best league in the world behind MLB, perhaps with an eye toward eventually engineering a return to Major League Baseball down the road.

When the Dodgers originally signed Bauer, he was heading into his age-30 season on the heels of a National League Cy Young win during the shortened 2020 season. Then a member of the Reds, Bauer tossed 73 innings of 1.73 ERA ball, striking out an elite 36% of his opponents against a strong 6.1% walk rate along the way. He got out to a strong start through 17 starts with the Dodgers (2.59 ERA 31.7% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate) and, over the course of his past 569 big league innings, carries a 3.07 earned run average.

Bauer’s Dodgers tenure came to an abrupt halt when, in June 2021, it came to light that a woman in California had filed a restraining order against him and accused him of sexual assault. An investigation by both Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office ensued. Bauer spent the remainder of the 2021 season on paid administrative leave — a mutually agreed-upon status between MLB and the MLBPA that is not considered punitive in nature. (Administrative leave is common while players are being investigated under the domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.) During this time, two other women, both in Ohio, came forth with similar allegations against Bauer. The alleged incidents in those complaints came prior to the alleged incidents in California.

In August of 2021, the California plaintiff’s request for a long-term restraining order against Bauer was denied. A judge ruled that Bauer did not pose an ongoing threat to his accuser. Months later, the L.A. district attorney declined to pursue criminal charges. While the DA did not declare Bauer’s innocence, the department stated: “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Major League Baseball’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy does not require criminal charges to be enforced, however. Manfred, upon his own review of the evidence, opined that Bauer had indeed violated the policy and levied that record 324-game suspension, which was reduced to 194 games back in December. Immediately in the wake of Bauer’s reinstatement, reports emerged that several teams were completely uninterested in pursuing Bauer — the Yankees, Mets, Padres, Twins and Guardians among them.

Bauer’s release marks the conclusion of the Dodgers’ relationship with the righty, whom they signed to a three-year, $102MM contract in the 2020-21 offseason. Bauer, then heading into his age-30 season, had just been named the National League Cy Young winner in the shortened 2020 season, when he pitched 73 innings of 1.73 ERA ball for the Reds. The contract contained opt-out opportunities for Bauer after each season — similar (but greater in scope) to prior free-agent deals seen between the Dodgers and Scott Kazmir (three years, $48MM) and the Mets and Yoenis Cespedes (three years, $75MM).

Bauer was effective through 17 starts with Los Angeles, pitching to a 2.59 ERA in 107 2/3 innings to begin the 2021 season. That summer, it came to light that a woman in California had filed a restraining order against Bauer and accused him of sexual assault, which prompted a tumultuous investigation by both Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office. He spent the remainder of the season on paid administrative leave — a mutually agreed-upon placement that is common practice when players are being examined for alleged violations of the league’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Two other women, both in Ohio, eventually came forth with similar allegations against Bauer.

The California plaintiff’s request for a long-term restraining order was denied in Aug. 2021, with a judge ruling that Bauer did not pose an ongoing threat to his accuser. The L.A. district attorney declined to pursue criminal charges, stating that: “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Despite the lack of criminal charges, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred opined that Bauer had indeed violated the league’s policy, implementing a record 324-game suspension back in April. Bauer appealed the suspension, and after sitting out the entire 2022 season, his ban was reduced to 194 games — which had already been served in full. Bauer was reinstated and is eligible to return to the mound immediately for any team that wishes to sign him.

The Yankees and Mets have no plans to pursue Bauer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Padres are also uninterested, per Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and the same goes for the Guardians, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that the Twins also have no plans to speak with Bauer.

“The Dodgers organization believes that allegations of sexual assault or domestic violence should be thoroughly investigated, with due process given to the accused,” the organization said in a statement. “From the beginning, we have cooperated fully with Major League Baseball’s investigation and strictly followed the process stipulated under MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. Two extensive reviews of all the available evidence in this case — one by Commissioner Manfred and another by a neutral arbitrator — concluded that Mr. Bauer’s actions warranted the longest ever active player suspension in our sport for violations of this policy. Now that this process has been completed, and after careful consideration, we have decided that he will no longer be part of our organization.”

Bauer released his own statement this evening, stating that Dodgers brass had suggested as recently as yesterday he’d remain on the team (relayed by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). “While we were unable to communicate throughout the administrative leave and arbitration process, my representatives spoke to Dodgers leadership immediately following the arbitration decision. Following two weeks of conversations around my return to the organization, I sat down with Dodgers leadership in Arizona yesterday who told me they wanted me to return and pitch for the team this year. While I am disappointed by the organization’s decision today, I appreciate the wealth of support I’ve received from the Dodgers clubhouse. I wish the players all the best and look forward to competing elsewhere.”

Bauer joined Los Angeles over the 2020-21 offseason on the heels of winning the NL Cy Young award with the Reds. He signed a three-year, $102MM guarantee that afforded him chances to opt out of the deal after each of the first two seasons. Bauer made 17 starts with a 2.59 ERA in his first season in L.A. before reports emerged that a California woman had filed for a restraining order and accused him of assaulting her during sex. He was promptly placed on paid administrative leave while the legal process played out, and he spent the remainder of the 2021 season on administrative leave by mutual agreement of MLB and the Players Association. Two Ohio women subsequently came forth with allegations that Bauer had assaulted them in prior years.

A judge denied the California woman’s request for a long-term restraining order in August 2021, finding he did not pose an ongoing threat to her safety. Bauer never faced criminal charges, with the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed with a criminal action after their investigation. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s office said at the time.

Attention then turned to Major League Baseball’s investigation. Even in the absence of criminal charges, MLB is permitted to impose discipline if its investigation finds a player violated the joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. The league did so last April, imposing a 324-game ban that went into effect from the date of the suspension. That would have kept Bauer out for the entire 2022-23 seasons (and a few weeks in 2024); Bauer immediately appealed, becoming the first player to appeal a suspension levied under the domestic violence policy.

The appellate process played out over the following eight months. As per the terms of the policy, the arbitration panel consisted of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties. Two weeks ago, the panel announced its determination. The appellate group reduced Bauer’s suspension to 194 games, which had already been served. He was decreed immediately eligible for reinstatement. The Dodgers were given until tonight to reactivate him on their roster or cut him loose.

As the Dodgers mentioned in their statement, the panel found that Bauer had violated the Domestic Violence policy. His suspension was reduced but not overturned, and even the reduced suspension was the longest handed out to any player since the policy was introduced in August 2015. While the panel determined Bauer violated the policy, it judged MLB’s initial two-year ban to be excessive.

Suspensions under the domestic violence policy are unpaid. Bauer did not collect any salary between the date of his suspension and the end of the 2022 season. The panel also stripped him of his salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season — a retroactive loss of salary for money he did collect while on paid administrative leave between 2021 and April ’22. After the first 50 games of the season are up, Bauer will be entitled to his remaining salary.

Bauer had been set to make $32MM this year, the final season of his contract. After accounting for the forfeited salary, he’ll be due around $22.5MM. Even with the Dodgers officially moving on, they’ll be on the hook for that money. Los Angeles’ projected payroll sits around $217MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. More meaningfully, that expenditure brings the Dodgers estimated luxury tax number within a rounding error of the base $233MM CBT threshold. Multiple reports in recent months have suggested the Dodgers would like to dip below the tax threshold this year, thereby resetting their tax bracket after two consecutive seasons of overages. Doing so at this point would require finding a way to shed salary and/or not taking on any notable additional expenditures this offseason or at the trade deadline.

As with any player designated for assignment, there’s now a seven-day window for the Dodgers to trade Bauer or place him on waivers. Bob Nightengale of USA Today unsurprisingly tweets the Dodgers didn’t find any trade interest over the past two weeks. The extremely likely outcome is the 31-year-old will be placed on release waivers between now and next Thursday. Any team claiming him would have to take on his lofty salary; that surely won’t happen, and Bauer will become a free agent if/when he officially clears waivers.

At that point, his camp can look for opportunities elsewhere. Any team that signs Bauer after he clears waivers would only be responsible for the $720K league minimum salary, with the Dodgers still on the hook for the rest of the deal. Whether any other team is willing to carry him on their roster remains to be seen.

“Today, the neutral arbitrator selected by MLB and the MLBPA affirmed that Trevor Bauer violated Major League Baseball’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy,” the league said in a statement. “After an exhaustive review of the available evidence the neutral arbitrator upheld an unpaid suspension of 194 games.  As part of the decision, the arbitrator reinstated Mr. Bauer effectively immediately, with a loss of pay covering the 144 games he was suspended during the 2022 season. In addition, the arbitrator docked Bauer’s salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season (i.e., the period covering March 30, 2023 to May 23, 2023).  While we believe a longer suspension was warranted, MLB will abide by the neutral arbitrator’s decision, which upholds baseball’s longest-ever active player suspension for sexual assault or domestic violence.

We understand this process was difficult for the witnesses involved and we thank them for their participation.  Due to the collectively bargained confidentiality provisions of the joint program, we are unable to provide further details at this time.”

A California woman filed a civil action accusing Bauer of assaulting her during sex, and Major League Baseball placed him on administrative leave when those allegations became public in July 2021. He spent the remainder of that season on paid administrative leave by mutual agreement of MLB and the Players Association while the league conducted an investigation. Two Ohio women later came forth with allegations that Bauer had assaulted them in prior years.

The California woman filed for a long-term restraining order against Bauer. A judge denied that request in August 2021, finding he did not pose an ongoing threat to her safety. Bauer never faced criminal charges, with the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed with a criminal action after their investigation. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s office said at the time.

Even in the absence of criminal charges, MLB is permitted to impose discipline if its investigation finds a player violated the joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. The league did so in April, imposing a 324-game ban that went into effect from the date of the suspension. That would have kept Bauer out for the entire 2022-23 seasons (and a few weeks in 2024); Bauer immediately appealed, becoming the first player to appeal a domestic violence suspension.

The appellate process has played out over the past eight months. As per the terms of the policy, the panel consisted of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties.

As the league statement indicates, the panel found that Bauer did violate the Domestic Violence policy. His missed time from the second half of 2021 and the entire ’22 campaign was upheld. Bauer was not paid during the 2022 season after the suspension was announced, and he will forfeit his salary for that season. He will also lose the salary for the first 50 games of next season, as that represents retroactive payment for salary he collected while not playing during his time on administrative leave from July 2021 to April 2022.

However, the panel also determined MLB’s suspension to be excessive and knocked off 130 games from the ban. Based on the number of games he’s already missed, he’ll be eligible to return to the field at the opening of next season.

Bauer has been on the restricted list and hasn’t counted against the Dodgers 40-man roster since first landing on administrative leave. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets the team will have until January 6 to either reinstate him to the roster or release him. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Dodgers are expected to release Bauer, though the team has yet to comment on the matter.

Even if the Dodgers cut Bauer loose, it’s a meaningful development for the organization from a financial perspective. Los Angeles will owe him his 2023 salary whether they keep him on the roster or not. They won’t have to pay him for the first 50 games of the season, but they’ll remain on the hook for the rest of his $32MM salary. He’ll still be owed approximately $22.12MM after accounting for his docked pay. Perhaps more meaningfully, that money now goes back onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax ledger for the 2023 campaign. As calculated by Roster Resource, Los Angeles’ CBT number jumps to approximately $232MM. That’s just $1MM below next year’s $233MM base tax threshold.

Reporting in recent weeks had suggested the Dodgers were reluctant to spend aggressively this winter, in part due to a desire to maintain flexibility under the CBT threshold in case Bauer’s suspension were reduced. With that coming into play, they’ll have virtually no financial breathing room without shedding salary unless they’re willing to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season.

The Dodgers opened the 2022 season with a payroll of $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At the end of the year, they had a large crop of players hit free agency, wiping a huge chunk of change off the books. Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney were all making noteworthy money in 2022 before hitting the open market, with a few midseason pickups and role players departing as well. The Dodgers then cleared out even more money by non-tendering Cody Bellinger and his projected $18.1MM arbitration salary as well as declining Justin Turner’s $16MM club option for 2023.

With all of that, it was certainly a possibility that the club could come into the winter spending wildly and getting their payroll back up to last year’s levels. But while the free agents have been coming off the board with eye-popping deals, the Dodgers have largely been laying in the cut so far. Since the offseason began, the club has re-signed Kershaw and added Shelby Miller on one-year deals, for $20MM and $1.5MM, respectively. Those contracts have brought the club’s payroll for 2023 up to $173MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $189MM.

That leaves the Dodgers plenty of room to work with, in a sense. That pure payroll figure is more than $100MM below what they carried last year and that CBT figure is more than $40MM shy of the lowest CBT threshold. It’s possible they are simply playing a long game, waiting for the frenzy of the early offseason to die down and searching for bargains later in the winter. But there are also reasons to suspect they might continue being fairly inactive.

For one thing, there’s the Trevor Bauer situation to consider. The club signed him to a three-year, $102MM deal going into the 2021 season, though Bauer only made 17 starts for them. He was placed on administrative leave in July 2021 while the league investigated assault allegations against him. In April 2022, he was given a two-year suspension, covering the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. That suspension was without pay, wiping Bauer’s salary from the club’s commitments.

However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote about Bauer’s attempt to appeal that suspension, with a decision from an arbiter expected either this month or next month. If the suspension were to be completely overturned, the Dodgers will have to pay him for both 2022 and 2023, a $32MM salary for each. That’s true even if the club immediately releases Bauer after that decision. That’s a decent amount of money in itself, but Shaikin points out the Dodgers were luxury tax payors this year and would potentially have to pay extra fees on Bauer’s reinstated salary as well. In terms of 2023, the club’s CBT figure would jump to over $220MM. Shaikin also points out it’s possible the suspension is merely reduced, which would leave the club on the hook for some but not all of that money.

That decision will have a big impact on the club’s financial outlook going forward, so it stands to reason they want to wait and get some clarity there before making huge commitments. There are also more traditional baseball reasons for playing the waiting game, though. The departure of those aforementioned free agents has created many holes in the roster, but they might be able to fill them internally with their strong crop of prospects. On Baseball America’s most recent top 100 list, the Dodgers featured seven players, six of them in the top 52 spots. MLB Pipeline also has seven Dodgers on their list. FanGraphs is a bit less bullish but still puts five young Dodgers in the top 100.

Not only are these prospects highly regarded around the sport, they mostly are close to the majors or already there. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot made his MLB debut in 2022 while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone reached Triple-A. Third baseman Miguel Vargas cracked the majors this year while second baseman Michael Busch spent most of the year in Triple-A. Outfielder Andy Pages isn’t far behind, having spent the year in Double-A. Catcher Diego Cartaya is a bit further away, having spent most of this season in High-A, but he fared well and will likely be in Double-A to start 2023.

It’s possible the club thinks it’s time to let these younger players step up and start folding over a new leaf. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times last month. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.” That certainly suggests the club is willing to let their pricey free agents walk and attempt to replace them with younger and cheaper alternatives.

There’s no guarantee a prospect will come up and succeed at the major league level, no matter how high their praise among evaluators. But teams can’t build successful rosters through free agency alone and have to at least produce some talent from their own pipeline. There is certainly risk in trying to achieve that, but the Dodgers aren’t in a terrible place right now, on paper. Despite the many departures and modest activity thus far, the club’s overall projected WAR currently ranks sixth in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.

The club will surely be looking to make improvements there, though how aggressive they will be is to be seen. It’s been suggested by some the team would like to stay under the luxury tax in 2023 in order to spend more aggressively next winter when Shohei Ohtani is likely to be the top free agent available. As a reminder, the CBT carries increasing penalties for clubs that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers have paid the tax in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023. However, if they stayed under this year, they would reset and could cross the line again in 2024 as a “first-time” payor and significantly lower penalties. With so many contracts coming off the books and so many prospects ready to debut, it would seem now is a good time to flip that reset switch. But if that is indeed the plan, the Bauer decision will loom even larger. If the suspension is upheld, the club has over $40MM to work with before nearing the line, but the number is closer to $10MM if the decision is overturned.

Either way, there’s still plenty of talent currently on the roster. As mentioned, FanGraphs considers them the sixth-best club in the majors at the moment. The rotation is in decent shape with Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May taking up four spots. There are some injury question marks with that group but it’s got a lot of upside. They also have the aforementioned prospects as options for the back-end and depth, with Pepiot, Miller and Stone in the mix. The bullpen has some exciting young pitchers in Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol.

There’s plenty of talent on the position player side as well, with many of them capable of moving around to other positions as needed. Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and will be behind the plate. The club is reportedly comfortable with Gavin Lux moving from second base to shortstop. Super utility guy Chris Taylor could take over the keystone for him. At the corners, Freddie Freeman will have first base spoken for while Vargas could get an extended audition at the hot corner. Max Muncy can spend some time at first, second and third while also acting as the designated hitter somewhat regularly. In the outfield, Mookie Betts will have one position spoken for while Trayce Thompson should have another. That leaves one spot open for either Busch or James Outman, a prospect a bit behind Busch on the rankings but one who’s posted huge numbers in the upper minors and has already made his MLB debut. There’s also the possibility Muncy takes over second base while Taylor spend significant time in the outfield.

If the club has $40MM to work with, there are plenty of ways for them to spread it around to improve the team while still leaving room for their younger players to take a step forward. Adding a starter would bump their prospects out of the top five but opportunities would surely come up throughout the year. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Even with a free agent addition, opportunities will undoubtedly arise for Pepiot, Miller and Stone.

The top remaining free agent starter is Carlos Rodón, who was predicted by MLBTR for a salary of $28MM but is reportedly looking for a seven-year deal and could theoretically take a lesser annual salary to max out his guarantee. The Dodgers usually prefer higher salaries and shorter terms but they could change their tune if they’re focused on their CBT hit in 2023. Even adding about $25MM for someone like Rodón would leave the club with room for other upgrades, so there isn’t really any starting pitcher they couldn’t fit into their plans in this scenario. Some of the other options available include Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and old friend Ross Stripling.

Adding an outfielder seems a possibility, as it was reported the club made a run at Kevin Kiermaier before he agreed to join the Blue Jays. If the club looks to other options, they likely won’t need to break the bank. The top options are already off the board with Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo each agreeing to rejoin their respective New York clubs. That leaves Andrew Benintendi as arguably the top guy left in this department. MLBTR predicted he would land a $54MM contract over four years, or $13.5MM per season.

The club could also pursue an infielder and bump Taylor into spending more time on the grass, perhaps with Lux staying at second. The top remaining option there is Carlos Correa, though it seems he’s not in the club’s plans. That leaves one other marquee option in Dansby Swanson, with a big drop down to less exciting options like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury or Justin Turner. Swanson was predicted for a $22MM salary over seven years for a $154MM total, while those other names will surely come in under that.

There are plenty of enticing options in any of those paths, but the club would have to be willing to cross the luxury tax again in order to do all of them. If they are indeed planning on staying under, they will like have to make tougher choices about which of these areas are worth their investments and which are worth leaving open for the young ones. Staying under the tax wouldn’t completely hamper the club, as they would almost certainly go into the next season pegged by many for a postseason spot. But FanGraphs currently considers them the fourth-best team in the National League, behind the Braves and the hyper-aggressive Mets and Padres. A modest offseason could still leave the Dodgers in decent shape, but it could perhaps knock them off their pedestal as perennial favorites.

The financial aspect of signing a player like Correa is playing a part too as the 28-year-old could command a deal in excess of $300MM. The Dodgers’ payroll is on track to be significantly lower than in 2022, and they certainly have the financial muscle to take on a contract like that, but they’re also waiting on whether or not Major League Baseball opts to uphold Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension for violating the league’s policy on sexual assault and domestic violence.

Should the suspension be upheld, the Dodgers won’t owe anything to Bauer, but if it’s overturned or reduced the Dodgers will be on the hook for all or part of his salary. As Bill Shaikin of the LA Times notes, there’s $60MM of salary at stake, although that number could rise to as much as $100MM, as the Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender. As Rosenthal notes, it’s enough cost uncertainty for the Dodgers to be wary of adding significant payroll this winter.

The news that they’re not pursuing Correa doesn’t necessarily rule them out of spending on a shortstop, and although reports have indicated there’s momentum towards Xander Bogaerts returning to the Red Sox, the Dodgers have been connected with him earlier in the off-season. Dansby Swanson is the other top shortstop available, while lower profile options in free agency include Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus. Alternatively, they could just plug Gavin Lux in at shortstop and seek to replace the lost offense from Turner in other areas.

Such areas could include center field, as well as adding another middle-of-the-order bat and a starting pitcher. Rosenthal notes that the team is looking to rely more heavily on young, minimum salary players this year, and free agent additions would be more modestly priced, and cites Kevin Kiermaier and J.D. Martinez as options, while the team has been connected to Andrew McCutchen recently. The Dodgers do have the likes of Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Jacob Amaya on the roster all with less than a year of service time, and they could be candidates to see increased playing time next season.

For Correa, while having a big market team like the Dodgers involved in the bidding certainly doesn’t hurt negotiations, he’ll still find plenty of suitors. The Twins have been aggressive in trying to re-sign him, while the Cubs have already met with him at the Winter Meetings and have the payroll to take on a big, long-term contract. The Giants are also a team to watch now that they’ve missed out on Aaron Judge, as they too have the deep pockets and payroll space required to sign Correa to a lengthy contract.

That’s not to say a resolution is forthcoming shortly. Ghiroli reports that the process is likely to take place over several days in the coming months, with scheduling subject to the availability of the arbitrators. The panel will consist of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties.

Three women have made public allegations that Bauer assaulted them during sex. He was not charged criminally, but the league has the authority to hand down discipline even in the absence of charges (as it did in this instance). The pitcher has denied the allegations.

Bauer’s appeal marks the first time a player has contested a ban under the Domestic Violence policy. (All previous players found to have committed a violation agreed to their suspensions). The 324-game suspension is the longest handed down by the commissioner’s office since the policy was put into place. Bauer was on paid administrative leave between last July — when the first woman’s allegations were made public — until the suspension was announced on April 29. He is not being paid during the appeals process. Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM free agent deal with the Dodgers that runs through 2023.

The Columbus woman becomes the third person to bring forth assault allegations against Bauer. Last year, a California woman filed for a temporary ex parte restraining order against him after claiming he had assaulted her during sex. A Los Angeles County Superior Court judge denied her request for a permanent restraining order, and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced in February it would not pursue criminal charges. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s Office stated at the time.

The Washington Post reported last August that an Ohio woman — not the same woman of today’s report — had filed for and was granted an ex parte temporary civil stalking protection order against Bauer in June 2020. That woman alleged that Bauer had struck her “without her consent during sex in 2018,” in the words of the Post.

While the Columbus woman’s allegations are being publicly reported for the first time, her attorney tells Garcia-Roberts she cooperated with Major League Baseball during its recent investigation. (Garcia-Roberts adds that the Ohio woman who had received an ex parte restraining order against Bauer in 2020 also cooperated with MLB investigators, according to her attorney). This afternoon, MLB handed down a 324-game suspension after determining that Bauer violated the league’s and MLBPA’s Joint Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault policy.

Bauer announced plans to appeal that suspension, and the Columbus woman tells Garcia-Roberts she is willing to testify at an arbitration hearing during the appeals process. MLB declined comment to the Post and said during its announcement of Bauer’s suspension this afternoon it would “not issue any further statements at this point in time.”

A note from MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes: Though our normal policy is to close comments on posts relating to domestic violence, I have chosen to leave them open on this post.  Given the magnitude of the news, MLBTR readers are going to discuss it no matter what, and leaving comments open here will help contain the discussion to this post rather than unrelated ones.

This is by nature a sensitive topic.  Some readers may want to avoid the comments section on this post entirely, while others may employ use of the mute button.  MLBTR’s commenting policy still applies.

“In the strongest possible terms, I deny committing any violation of the league’s domestic violence & sexual assault policy. I am appealing this action and expect to prevail. As we have throughout this process, my representatives & I respect the confidentiality of the proceedings.”

The Dodgers issued the following statement in reaction to commissioner Manfred’s decision:

“Today we were informed that MLB has concluded its investigation into allegations that have been made against Trevor Bauer, and the Commissioner has issued his decision regarding the discipline. The Dodgers organization takes all allegations of this nature very seriously and does not condone or excuse any acts of domestic violence or sexual assault. We’ve cooperated fully with MLB’s investigation since it began, and we fully support MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy, and the Commissioner’s enforcement of the Policy. We understand that Trevor has the right to appeal the Commissioner’s decision. Therefore, we will not comment further until the process is complete.”

Major League Baseball originally placed Bauer on administrative leave on July 14, 2021, in the wake of sexual assault allegations from a California woman who filed a temporary ex parte restraining order against him. For months, Bauer remained in limbo as the legal process surrounding the allegations played out. In August, a Los Angeles Superior Court judge denied a permanent restraining order to the alleged victim, bringing a close to that civil hearing. Potential criminal charges loomed as a possibility, however, dependent on the findings of the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office.

That process dragged into the new year, but on Feb. 8, the Los Angeles District Attorney’s office announced that criminal charges would not be brought forth. The DA’s office did not declare Bauer innocent nor guilty, but rather determined that, “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Bauer, who announced this week that he has filed a defamation lawsuit against his accuser, has been on administrative leave throughout the first several weeks of the 2022 season as Manfred and his office have conducted their own investigation into the matter. The league ostensibly opted not to begin conducting that investigation until the outcome of the legal proceedings were known, which has regularly been the case in past instances pertaining to the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse policy.

Today’s suspension for Bauer is the longest ban ever handed out under that policy, which does grant the commissioner’s office the authority to unilaterally impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges. In essence, the suspension absolves the Dodgers of the remainder of the commitment owed to Bauer, who signed a three-year, $102MM contract in the 2020-21 offseason. That could change, depending on the outcome of Bauer’s forthcoming appeal.

A note from MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes: Though our normal policy is to close comments on posts relating to domestic violence, I have chosen to leave them open on this post.  Given the magnitude of the news, MLBTR readers are going to discuss it no matter what, and leaving comments open here will help contain the discussion to this post rather than unrelated ones.

This is by nature a sensitive topic.  Some readers may want to avoid the comments section on this post entirely, while others may employ use of the mute button.  MLBTR’s commenting policy still applies.

APRIL 15: Last month, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association jointly agreed to extend Trevor Bauer’s paid administrative leave period through April 16 while MLB continues its investigation into assault allegations made against him by a woman last year. On Wednesday, multiple reporters (including Jon Heyman of the New York Post) relayed that the league and union had jointly agreed to extend the leave again through next Friday, April 22.

That seems to push back any determination on his status for at least another six days, but Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported this afternoon that Bauer is “exploring whether there is in fact a binding agreement in place.” It isn’t clear what Bauer may be looking into, but a source tells Shaikin there is a written agreement between MLB and the MLBPA codifying the leave extension through next Friday — one MLB considers binding.

The administrative leave period is not considered disciplinary; it’s a measure designed to afford the league more time to investigate possible violations of the Domestic Violence, Child Abuse and Sexual Assault policy. Bauer was not charged criminally, but the policy allows commissioner Rob Manfred to levy a punishment even in the absence of charges if the league determines there was a violation. Players have the right to appeal a disciplinary action to an arbitrator.

Bauer is in the second season of a three-year, $102MM contract. He is playing this year on a $32MM salary and has an opt-out clause at the end of the season.

MARCH 11: Trevor Bauer has been placed on a week-long administrative leave by the league, as first reported by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).  The leave will run from March 13 to March 19, and Bauer also won’t report to the Dodgers’ Spring Training camp prior to the 13th.  Major League Baseball is still considering whether or not to issue a suspension to Bauer, as per the MLB/MLBPA’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.

Bauer has been on paid administrative leave since July, shortly after a woman in California made allegations of sexual assault and had a temporary ex parte restraining order filed against Bauer.  In February, the L.A. County District Attorney’s Office announced that criminal charges weren’t being pursued against Bauer, as “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

As per the MLB/MLBPA’s joint policy, the league can still issue a suspension even in the absence of criminal charges, as has been the case with most of the suspensions filed since the policy was first introduced in August 2015.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has the broad authority to issue suspensions of any length or severity, and suspended players can appeal to an arbitration panel if they disagree with the commissioner’s decision.  It is expected that Bauer will indeed appeal any suspension levied against him.

Beyond the case in California, reports also surfaced this past summer of a previous ex parte temporary civil stalking protection order granted to a woman in Ohio against Bauer in June and July of 2020.  This protection order was in regards to another alleged incident that took place involving Bauer and the woman in 2017, when Bauer was a member of the Indians.

The league hasn’t interviewed Bauer since July, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  While the league’s investigation has now been ongoing for over eight months, it seems as though both the lockout and the pending decision from the L.A. County D.A.’s Office led to the delay.  That said, it still isn’t clear when exactly the league may render its own judgement on a possible suspension.

Bauer’s accuser later initiated a civil proceeding for a restraining order against him. Around the same time, the Pasadena Police Department began a criminal investigation. While Bauer’s accuser was granted a temporary ex parte restraining order in June, a trial court denied her request for a permanent restraining order two months later following a week-long hearing. Not long thereafter, Pasadena PD turned the results of their criminal investigation over to the L.A. County District Attorney’s Office to determine whether criminal charges were warranted.

A bit more than five months after taking over the criminal investigation, the DA’s Office has chosen not to pursue criminal charges. Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic relays an excerpt of the DA’s Office’s formal decision (on Twitter): “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Bauer was placed on paid administrative leave when the pending investigation was first made public late last June. He remained on administrative leave — a process designed to afford Major League Baseball time to investigate allegations of this nature, not to reflect any finding of fact on the league’s part — for the remainder of the 2021 season.

The absence of criminal charges does not bring an end to the MLB investigation. The MLB – MLB Players Association Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy permits MLB to impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges. While Bauer was on administrative leave, it was reported that an Ohio woman had received an ex parte civil stalking protection order against him in June 2020 after also alleging he assaulted her during sex.

After hearing news of the DA’s Office’s declination to file charges, MLB released a brief statement (via Ghiroli): “MLB’s investigation is ongoing and we will comment further at the appropriate time.” After the District Attorney’s Office announced their decision, Bauer released a video (on Twitter) denying that he assaulted his accuser and asserting the entirety of their sexual encounter was consensual.