Rojas, now 23, was promoted to the majors last summer from Double-A, skipping over the Triple-A level. He had long been a notable prospect thanks to his speed and defense, and he definitely showed those traits in the second half of the 2023 season. He stole 14 bases in 15 attempts while also being credited with 15 Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average in center field.

That was a key development for the Phillies, as they had some defensive challenges, particularly in the outfield. Bryce Harper was returning from Tommy John surgery last year and was able to come back as a designated hitter before being able to play the field. That left the Phils with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who are both considered subpar defenders, in the outfield corners most days.

On top of those contributions, the offense from Rojas was better than expected. Rojas struck out in 25.6% of his plate appearances and only walked at a 3% clip, but he managed to slash .302/.342/.430 for a wRC+ of 109. That was largely held up by an unsustainable .410 batting average on balls in play, but any offense was likely considered a nice bonus by the Phillies, since they largely wanted Rojas out there for his glove.

That performance earned Rojas a chance to take the everyday center field job this year, but it has not gone well. He has reduced his strikeout rate to 15.8% but his batted ball luck has disappeared. He has a .273 BABIP on the year and still isn’t drawing walks, leading to a .235/.271/.295 line and 62 wRC+. Bizarrely, his defense has also regressed, with tallies of +1 DRS and +2 OAA so far this year.

The Phils are having a great season, currently sporting a record of 47-24 that has them atop the National League, but the outfield has been their primary weak spot. Rojas has been a part of that but Castellanos, Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache are also having rough seasons while Brandon Marsh spent some time on the injured list with a hamstring strain. David Dahl was called up to help out and has looked good, but in a small sample of eight games after several years of injury-related struggles.

Rojas and Marsh are the only two players in that group who can be optioned to the minor leagues. Marsh is now off the IL and is having a good season overall, leaving Rojas as the odd man out. He’ll head to Triple-A for the first time and try to get back on track.

The Phils have plenty of justification for making this move based on the lack of performance from Rojas this year, but it’s possible that it will impact him from a service time perspective. He got 80 days of service last year, putting him 92 shy of the one-year mark. He has banked 81 so far this year, meaning he’s still just under that line. He should be able to get back over if he’s recalled at any point but his potential free agency could be pushed back if he stays down for the rest of the year.

For the Phillies, they will now proceed with some combination of Castellanos, Marsh, Pache, Merrifield and Dahl in the outfield. The return of Turner could also perhaps push Edmundo Sosa into that mix, as he has a small amount of outfield experience and was hitting well in covering for Turner. Marsh and Dahl hit from the left side while those other outfield options are righties, perhaps allowing the club to use platoons to get everyone into the lineup.

The return of Turner to the Phillies lineup should serve to further bolster a team that has emerged as a juggernaut in the first half of the 2024 campaign. The Phillies have stormed to an NL-best 47-23 record with excellent production on all fronts. They sport the third-best pitching staff in the majors this year by ERA with a 3.11 figure that sits behind only the Yankees and Orioles, while their 110 wRC+ on offense is tied for sixth in the majors with the Brewers. That they’ve managed to do all that without their star shortstop for the past six weeks is all the more impressive, particularly given the hot start Turner got off to prior to his injury.

In 33 games prior to his trip to the IL, Turner was slashing an incredible .343/.392/.460 (145 wRC+) with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts. That lengthy stretch of success extends all the way back to the All Star break of last year. Turner had scuffled through his first half-season in a Phillies uniform with below average numbers across the board, but caught fire down the stretch to help lead the club to their second consecutive NLCS appearance. Since mid July last year, Turner’s .309/.363/.522 slash line is good for a 142 wRC+ that’s 17th-best among all major league hitters and trails only Mookie Betts, Bobby Witt Jr. Gunnar Henderson, Corey Seager, and Jose Altuve among middle infielders.

That type of production will surely be a welcome addition to the Phillies lineup. While the club’s infield mix of Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Edmundo Sosa have all performed very well this season, adding Turner’s potent bat back into the lineup should provide a shot in the arm for the offense in Philadelphia. The return of Turner appears most likely to come at the expense of Sosa, who has performed phenomenally as a fill-in at shortstop while the star has been on the shelf. Sosa has slashed an excellent .280/.343/.512 in 138 trips to the plate this year, including a .286/.348/.524 slash line since taking over the everyday shortstop job while Turner has been injured.

That sort of strong production is hard to remove from a lineup, although it’s worth noting that Sosa has slumped in the month of June with a lackluster .216/.256/.324 slash in 39 trips to the plate. With Turner re-entering the fold, Sosa figures to return to his bench role as a contributor around the infield as a backup to each of Bohm, Stott, and Turner. His sensational .340/.426/.723 slash line against left-handed pitching seems likely to earn him regular playing time against southpaws even with the team’s lineup returning to full strength.

Speculatively speaking, Sosa could spell Stott, who has hit just .250/.357/.333 against same-handed pitching this year, at second base against some lefties or perhaps even work into the outfield mix, where he has made brief cameos in both left and center field during his time with the Phillies. The Phillies will need to move a position player off their active roster tomorrow to accommodate the return of Turner. Of note, only outfielder Johan Rojas has options remaining among the club’s current bench mix, which also includes fellow outfielder Christian Pache and veteran utility man Whit Merrifield.

12:56PM: The Phillies announced that Trea Turner has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain.  Infielder Kody Clemens was called up from Triple-A to take Turner’s place on the active roster.

The placement isn’t a surprise, as Turner’s injury forced him to make an early departure from yesterday’s 4-3 Phillies win over the Giants.  In the fourth inning, Turner was on second base when Jordan Hicks threw a fourth ball to batter Bryce Harper, and the ball bounced off catcher Tom Murphy’s glove for a passed ball.  Turner hustled down to third base and then all the way home to score on the play, but at a cost, as Edmundo Sosa took over at shortstop for Turner in the top of the fifth.

After getting off to an infamously slow start in 2023 (the first year of his 11-year, $300MM deal with Philadelphia), Turner has been far better in the early going of the 2024 campaign.  The shortstop is hitting .343/.392/.460 with two home runs, 27 runs scored, and 10 steals in 11 attempts.  A whopping .421 BABIP and a .379 wOBA that is far above his .330 xwOBA indicate that Turner has enjoyed some good fortune in posting his bottom-line numbers, even though Turner’s excellent speed has always led to strong BABIP results.

Turner has been one of the chief reasons why the Phillies have a league-high 22 wins.  There’s no easy way for the Phils to replace that production, and the team can only hope Turner’s strain is minor enough that he can return quickly and fully recovered.  Sosa will get most of the playing time at shortstop in Turner’s absence, with Clemens stepping into Sosa’s role as the team’s utilityman.  Philadelphia could also possibly use Bryson Stott at shortstop and deploy Whit Merrifield more often at second base, though Merrifield is off to a slow start at the plate.

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Fans in Philadelphia suffered a scare regarding the availability of shortstop Trea Turner yesterday when he exited the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader after being hit in the elbow by a pitch. Fortunately, Turner only suffered a bruise from the incident, as noted by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As relayed by Coffey, manager Rob Thomson told reporters yesterday that while Turner is unlikely to play in today’s regular season finale, he’s expected to be ready to go for the start of the Wild Card series on Tuesday. After a rough start to his $300MM contract with the Phillies in the first few months of the season, Turner has caught fire at the plate in recent weeks, slashing .339/.391/.677 over his last 47 games. That hot stretch has raised his overall slash line this season to .266/.320/.459, good for an above-average 108 wRC+.

Meanwhile, as the Phillies look for a platoon partner for outfielder Brandon Marsh headed into the playoffs, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggests that the club could turn to 29-year-old rookie Weston Wilson. Wilson has appeared in just five games with the Phillies this year, but has hit well in limited playing time, with two hits (including a home run) and six walks in 12 trips to the plate. Wilson, who slashed .325/.416/.609 in 178 trips to the plate against lefties at the Triple-A level this year, could usurp Cristian Pache as the club’s starter in left field against left-handers thanks to Pache’s brutal .091/.231/.152 slash line in 15 games this September.

More from around the NL East…

• Even after reportedly hiring David Stearns to become the club’s new president of baseball operations this offseason, the Mets are still looking to add to their organizational leadership. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, owner Steve Cohen figures to “ramp up” efforts to hire a new team president to replace Sandy Alderson, who vacated the position back in February. The search for a new team president began last September, when Alderson announced he would be stepping down. At the time, the club was reportedly focused on candidates who would be focus primarily on the club’s business operations. Given the impending hiring of Stearns to helm the club’s baseball operations, it stands to reason this plan remains in place as the Mets renew their search for a team president.
• The Braves announced this afternoon that they have recalled left-hander Dylan Dodd, who figures to start today’s regular season finale against Washington. The Braves have long since clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, allowing the club to offer right-hander Bryce Elder some additional rest ahead of the club’s postseason run. Elder, who’s 180 2/3 innings of work between the majors and minors this season represents a career high, was one of the club’s most reliable starters early in the season but has struggled badly in recent weeks with a 5.26 ERA in ten starts since the calendar flipped to August. With Charlie Morton expected to remain on the injured list until the NLCS, Elder is perhaps the club’s most likely option to start Game 3 of the NLDS behind Max Fried and Spencer Strider.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

• Jose Altuve, Astros

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

• Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

• Brandon Crawford, Giants

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

• Salvador Perez, Royals

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

• Chris Sale, Red Sox

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

• Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

• Mike Trout, Angels

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

• Joey Votto, Reds

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

• Patrick Corbin, Nationals

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

• Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

• Bryce Harper, Phillies

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

• Aaron Hicks, Yankees

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

• DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

• Manny Machado, Padres

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

• Ryan Pressly, Astros

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

• Christian Yelich, Brewers

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

• Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

• Ozzie Albies, Braves

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

• Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

• Javier Báez, Tigers

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

• José Berríos, Blue Jays

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

• Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

• Xander Bogaerts, Padres

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

• Kris Bryant, Rockies

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

• Byron Buxton, Twins

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

• Luis Castillo, Mariners

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

• Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

• Willson Contreras, Cardinals

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

• Carlos Correa, Twins

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

• Jake Cronenworth, Padres

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

• Yu Darvish, Padres

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

• Jacob deGrom, Rangers

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

• Rafael Devers, Red Sox

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

• Edwin Díaz, Mets

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

• Wilmer Flores, Giants

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

• Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

• Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

• Wander Franco, Rays

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

• Andrés Giménez, Guardians

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

• Michael Harris II, Braves

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

• Kyle Hendricks, Cubs

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

• Aaron Judge, Yankees

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

• Francisco Lindor, Mets

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Lance McCullers Jr., Astros

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

• Ryan McMahon, Rockies

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

• Sean Murphy, Braves

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

• Joe Musgrove, Padres

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

• Brandon Nimmo, Mets

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

• Matt Olson, Braves

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

• Marcell Ozuna, Braves

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

• José Ramírez, Guardians

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

• J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

• Anthony Rendon, Angels

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

• Austin Riley, Braves

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

• Carlos Rodón, Yankees

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

• Julio Rodríguez, Mariners

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

• Keibert Ruiz, Nationals

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

• Corey Seager, Rangers

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

• Marcus Semien, Rangers

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

• Antonio Senzatela, Rockies

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

• George Springer, Blue Jays

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

• Trevor Story, Red Sox

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

• Dansby Swanson, Cubs

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

• Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

• Chris Taylor, Dodgers

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

• Trea Turner, Phillies

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

“When you got right down to it, I didn’t want to go,” Moreno told Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci as part of a wide-ranging interview.  “I just had the whole personal talk with myself.  You know, you have a lot of time to think about it.  I’m walking these [bidders] around the stadium. We’re on the field, looking around the stadium and I’m thinking, ’How many guys ever get a chance to do this?’ “

Moreno said he received three bids from MLB-vetted potential buyers, and all of those bids were at least $2.62 billion in price.  This would have been a new record high for a Major League franchise, topping the $2.42 billion that Steve Cohen spent to buy the Mets in 2020.  However, Moreno said the finances didn’t outweigh his desire to keep the team, and he related an anecdote about how even one of the potential buyers said “I see in your eyes that you don’t look like you’re ready to sell” when Moreno and this unnamed buyer were touring Angel Stadium.  If a sale had gone through, Moreno said he was planning to retain a minority share of the Angels, “five to ten percent is what I was thinking.”

As to his initial decision to consider a sale, Moreno didn’t specifically state a reason, other than “it was more circumstantial than it was a change of heart” about his love for baseball.  In May 2022, the Anaheim City Council voted against a proposal to sell 150 acres of land around Angel Stadium to Moreno’s management company, and the deal became shrouded in scandal when the FBI launched an investigation into former Anaheim mayor Harry Sidhu on allegations of corruption and insider information related to the sale.

With the assumption of a sale hanging over the Angels as the offseason began, the club still had a very active winter, spending over $78MM in free agent signings.  $37MM of that money went onto the 2023 books, the Angels are on pace for a notable payroll increase — after finishing the 2022 season with roughly $180MM in spending, Los Angeles is projected to spend roughly $212.2MM on player salaries in 2023.

While the team’s winter may have been lacking in true headline signings, Moreno said that he had interest in trying to land another superstar free agent in Trea Turner.  However, with GM Perry Minasian noting the Angels’ several needs beyond just the shortstop position, Moreno said the offseason became “about the distribution of money.  Is it one player who makes a splash?  Or is it, ‘Hey, we can spend this money on two or three players.’ ”

To this end, Moreno disagrees with criticism that the Angels aren’t willing to invest in their payroll, noting that the club is regularly among the top 10 payrolls in the league.  “I can’t tell you we’ve always spent the money right, but we spent money,” Moreno said.  “So, if anybody that criticizes me that I’m not committed to winning, well, I am committed to winning.”

As Moreno himself noted, the allocation of that money has often backfired on the Angels, contributing to the club’s run of five consecutive losing seasons and only one postseason appearance in the last 13 seasons.  But, while spending isn’t itself an issue, Anaheim fans have often argued that Moreno hasn’t spent enough, since the team has only once exceeded the luxury tax threshold since the owner bought the team in 2003.  Roster Resource estimates that the Angels’ current Competitive Balance Tax number is roughly $226.75MM, which is under the $233MM threshold.

The CBT appears to be a matter of principle for Moreno, to the point that he was one of four owners who voted against raising the tax thresholds in the most recent set of collective bargaining agreement negotiations.  Moreno doesn’t begrudge teams like the Mets or Dodgers for their big spending, saying “I like the fact that people want to win.  But I just would like everybody to have a chance.  Like if somebody came to my house [for a card game] and everybody is putting a thousand dollars in and one guy puts in a hundred, I mean, how many hands can he play? It’s just no fun.  So, if you want to spend four hundred [million], then you should be taxed.  It is taxed, but to me it’s just not enough.  Clearly, it’s not enough.”

Such financial matters loom large given that Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent following the 2023 season, and there is an expectation that the two-way star will command a record-setting contract (perhaps even surpassing $500MM).  Moreno told Jon Heyman of the New York Post last month that he hoped to keep Ohtani in an Angels uniform, but money aside, Moreno said to both Heyman and Verducci that Anaheim’s chances of keeping Ohtani could hinge on whether or not the team can be competitive.

Moreno personally vetoed the idea of trading Ohtani at last year’s trade deadline, and he told Verducci that “we had five real offers for” the superstar.  But, beyond the team’s desire to retain Ohtani beyond 2023, Moreno felt there was more of a bigger-picture aspect to hanging onto such a unique player.  “People ask me, ’Shouldn’t you get something?’  But we get to see him every day.  That’s not nothing.  These people get to come and watch the best players.  They’re going to tell their grandkids, ’I saw Ohtani play.’ ”

The owner’s trade veto seems to still be in effect for now, as Moreno stated that “I will say it on the record, we will not trade Ohtani while we are contending for a playoff spot.”  As to whether or not the Angels would entertain offers if they were out of contention, Moreno didn’t consider the possibility, saying “we expect to be a playoff contender.  Everything in our plans putting this team together is about getting to the playoffs.  So, I’m not going to sit here and wonder what happens in an outcome we’re not planning for.  That would be like a fighter going into the ring and thinking, ’What if I lose?’ If he does that, he will lose.”

Without further ado…

Angels

• Glenn Albanese Jr.
• Jaime Barria
• Gustavo Campero
• Alan Carter
• Jhonathan Diaz
• Carlos Estevez
• David Fletcher
• Jake Kalish
• D’Shawn Knowles
• Shohei Ohtani
• Jose Quijada
• Luis Rengifo
• Gerardo Reyes
• Patrick Sandoval
• Mike Trout
• Gio Urshela
• Cesar Valdez
• Zack Weiss
• Aaron Whitefield

Astros

• Bryan Abreu
• Jose Altuve
• Ronel Blanco
• Luis Garcia
• Colton Gordon
• Cristian Javier
• Martin Maldonado
• Rafael Montero
• Hector Neris
• Jeremy Pena
• Ryan Pressly
• Andre Scrubb
• Kyle Tucker
• Jose Urquidy
• Derek West

Athletics

• Denzel Clarke
• Jordan Diaz
• Jake Fishman
• Zack Gelof
• James Gonzalez
• Adrian Martinez
• Joshwan Wright

Blue Jays

• Jose Berrios
• Jiorgeny Casimiri
• Yimi Garcia
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Spencer Horwitz
• Alejandro Kirk
• Otto Lopez
• Damiano Palmegiani

Braves

• Ronald Acuna Jr.
• Luis De Avila
• Roel Ramirez
• Alan Rangel
• Eddie Rosario
• Chadwick Tromp

Brewers

• Willy Adames
• Sal Frelick
• Alex Hall
• Matt Hardy
• Joel Payamps
• Rowdy Tellez
• Abraham Toro
• Luis Urias
• Michele Vassalotti
• Devin Williams

Cardinals

• Nolan Arenado
• Genesis Cabrera
• Tommy Edman
• Giovanny Gallegos
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Ivan Herrera
• Matt Koperniak
• Noah Mendlinger
• Oscar Mercado
• Miles Mikolas
• Lars Nootbaar
• Tyler O’Neill
• JoJo Romero
• Adam Wainwright
• Guillermo Zuniga

Cubs

• Javier Assad
• Owen Caissie
• Danis Correa
• Ben DeLuzio
• Roenis Elias
• Miles Mastrobuoni
• Matt Mervis
• B.J. Murray Jr.
• Vinny Nittoli
• Fabian Pertuz
• Liam Spence
• Seiya Suzuki
• Marcus Stroman
• Pedro Strop
• Nelson Velazquez
• Jared Young

Diamondbacks

• Dominic Fletcher
• Jakob Goldfarb
• Gunnar Groen
• Merrill Kelly
• Ketel Marte
• Eric Mendez
• Dominic Miroglio
• Emmanuel Rivera
• Jacob Steinmetz
• Mitchell Stumpo
• Alek Thomas

Dodgers

• Austin Barnes
• Mookie Betts
• Freddie Freeman
• Clayton Kershaw
• Adam Kolarek
• Miguel Rojas
• Will Smith
• Trayce Thompson
• Julio Urias

Giants

• Jonathan Bermudez
• Camilo Doval
• Joey Marciano
• Joc Pederson

Guardians

• Enyel De Los Santos
• Dayan Frias
• Andres Gimenez
• Bo Naylor
• Richie Palacios
• Cal Quantrill
• Cade Smith
• Meibrys Viloria
• Josh Wolf

Marlins

• Sandy Alcantara
• Luis Arraez
• Johnny Cueto
• Jesus Luzardo
• Anthony Maldonado
• Jean Segura

Mariners

• Matt Brash
• Diego Castillo
• Matt Festa
• Harry Ford
• Teoscar Hernandez
• Milkar Perez
• Julio Rodriguez
• Eugenio Suarez
• Blake Townsend

Mets

• Pete Alonso
• Jonathan Arauz
• Edwin Diaz
• Eduardo Escobar
• Dominic Hamel
• Elieser Hernandez
• Francisco Lindor
• Jeff McNeil
• Omar Narvaez
• Cam Opp
• Adam Ottavino
• Jose Quintana
• Brooks Raley
• Claudio Scotti

Nationals

• Alberto Baldonado
• Paolo Espino
• Lucius Fox
• Alberto Guerrero
• Joey Meneses
• Erasmo Ramirez

Orioles

• Daniel Federman
• Darwinzon Hernandez
• Dean Kremer
• Cedric Mullins
• Anthony Santander
• Rodney Theophile

Padres

• Xander Bogaerts
• Nabil Crismatt
• Nelson Cruz
• Jarryd Dale
• Yu Darvish
• Jose Espada
• Ruben Galindo
• Luis Garcia
• Ha-Seong Kim
• Manny Machado
• Nick Martinez
• Evan Mendoza
• Juan Soto
• Brett Sullivan
• Julio Teheran

Phillies

• Jose Alvarado
• Erubiel Armenta
• Malik Binns
• Jaydenn Estanista
• Vito Friscia
• Brian Marconi
• J.T. Realmuto
• Kyle Schwarber
• Noah Skirrow
• Gregory Soto
• Garrett Stubbs
• Ranger Suarez
• Trea Turner
• Taijuan Walker
• Rixon Wingrove

Pirates

• David Bednar
• Tsung-Che Cheng
• Roansy Contreras
• Alessandro Ercolani
• Santiago Florez
• Jarlin Garcia
• Antwone Kelly
• Josh Palacios
• Jeffrey Passantino
• Tahnaj Thomas
• Duane Underwood Jr.
• Chavez Young
• Rob Zastryzny

Rangers

• Mitch Bratt
• Jose Leclerc
• Martin Perez

Rays

• Jason Adam
• Jonathan Aranda
• Randy Arozarena
• Christian Bethancourt
• Trevor Brigden
• Wander Franco
• Andrew Gross
• Joe LaSorsa
• Francisco Mejia
• Isaac Paredes
• Harold Ramirez
• Graham Spraker

Red Sox

• Jorge Alfaro
• Richard Bleier
• Rafael Devers
• Jarren Duran
• Ian Gibaut
• Rio Gomez
• Norwith Gudino
• Enrique Hernandez
• Nick Pivetta
• Henry Ramos
• Alex Verdugo
• Masataka Yoshida

Reds

• Donovan Benoit
• Silvino Bracho
• Luis Cessa
• Fernando Cruz
• Alexis Diaz
• Arij Fransen
• Kyle Glogoski
• Tayron Guerrero
• Evan Kravetz
• Nicolo Pinazzi
• Reiver Sanmartin
• Vin Timpanelli

Rockies

• Daniel Bard
• Jake Bird
• Yonathan Daza
• Elias Diaz
• Kyle Freeland
• Justin Lawrence
• German Marquez
• Michael Petersen
• Alan Trejo

Royals

• Max Castillo
• Robbie Glendinning
• Carlos Hernandez
• Nicky Lopez
• MJ Melendez
• Vinnie Pasquantino
• Salvador Perez
• Brady Singer
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Angel Zerpa

Tigers

• Javier Baez
• Miguel Cabrera
• Chavez Fernander
• Andy Ibanez
• Jack O’Loughlin
• Jacob Robson
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Jonathan Schoop
• John Valente

Twins

• Jose De Leon
• Edouard Julien
• Jorge Lopez
• Pablo Lopez
• Carlos Luna
• Jose Miranda
• Jovani Moran
• Emilio Pagan
• Christian Vazquez

White Sox

• Tim Anderson
• Kendall Graveman
• Eloy Jimenez
• Lance Lynn
• Yoan Moncada
• Nicholas Padilla
• Luis Robert
• Jose Ruiz

Yankees

• Indigo Diaz
• Kyle Higashioka
• Jonathan Loaisiga
• Gleyber Torres

Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.

Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.

The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.

There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.

It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

11:51am: The Padres’ offer to Turner was not only higher than the offer he accepted from Philadelphia but would have made Turner the highest-paid infielder in baseball, topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM deal with the Mets, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The exact length of the contract, potential deferrals, etc. aren’t known at this time, but it’s a nevertheless jarring follow-up revelation in the wake of the Phillies’ deal with Turner. Lindor’s contract is currently the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

While Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in the aftermath of the Padres’ failed bid that the team is no longer pursuing shortstops, Olney writes that the Padres have at least been in touch with Bogaerts, echoing a similar sentiment reported last night by Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

More broadly, Olney reports that the Padres are “very serious about trying to do all they can” to win the franchise’s first World Series, which raises the question as to whether San Diego might emerge as a legitimate entrant in the bidding for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and other top remaining free agents.

Dec. 5: The Phillies made the biggest splash of the offseason to date, agreeing to terms on an 11-year deal with Trea Turner this afternoon. Once finalized, it’ll make the two-time All-Star the 10th player in MLB history to land a contract worth at least $300MM.

Massive as the contract was, it apparently wasn’t the highest offer the shortstop had on the table. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports the Padres made an offer which topped the one Turner accepted from Philadelphia. Specifics of the proposal aren’t clear, but Gelb adds the gap was wide enough San Diego’s offer would’ve translated into more money even after adjusting for California’s higher state income tax rate than Pennsylvania’s.

In the months leading up to Turner’s free agency, there was a fair bit of speculation about whether geography would play a role in his decision. He’s a Florida native who went to college at North Carolina State. His wife Kristen is from New Jersey. Turner reportedly expressed a desire to remain on the East Coast when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, and while he downplayed geographic preferences in free agency, there seems to have been some truth behind the rumblings he could prefer heading back across the country. Turner also rejoins longtime Washington teammate Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

On the one hand, losing out on a star player even after making the highest offer has to be a tough blow for San Diego. Yet it also illustrates the possibility for the franchise to continue pushing chips in as they aggressively seek to augment one of the game’s more talented rosters. One could argue shortstop is more of a luxury buy for the Friars anyhow, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth all on hand as middle infield options. Yet San Diego was willing to put forth one of the largest contracts in league history to try to add another star to the lineup.

San Diego has also been tied to Xander Bogaerts this offseason. That they were the high bidder on Turner doesn’t inherently mean they’ll top the market for Bogaerts instead, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot in that direction now that their primary target is off the board. The Padres have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, and they’d have to do so again to add any of the star free agent shortstops. Roster Resource estimates their CBT ledger around $3MM below the base tax threshold of $233MM, and signing Turner for an average annual value around the $27.3MM he received would’ve pushed them into the second tier of penalization. That’d have involved a 50% tax on the first $20MM — an extra $10MM — and further taxes from that point forward, but it was apparently a bill owner Peter Seidler was content to foot for another star. How or if they reallocate that money, either in a pursuit of Bogaerts or in more directly addressing areas of need like first base and the corner outfield, remains to be seen.

As for the Phils, they now anticipate looking to the pitching market after adding to an already loaded position player core. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets the middle of the rotation and back of the bullpen are target areas for the Phils, who now aren’t far off the base luxury tax tier themselves. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters this evening the club is looking for a setup-type reliever who could mix and match with Seranthony Domínguez, Connor Brogdon and José Alvarado at the end of games (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

While the Phillies certainly aren’t taking their foot off the gas, Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of adding another player who’d rejected a qualifying offer. The Phils forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s amateur draft plus $1MM in international signing bonus space for Turner, who’d turned down a QO with the Dodgers. They’d lose their third and sixth picks to sign another qualified free agent, and Dombrowski told Coffey and others the team doesn’t have “much appetite” for that kind of pick forfeiture.

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

Since the Friars were recently connected to the shortstop market generally and Xander Bogaerts specifically, it’s not shocking that they would have some degree of interest in Turner as well. However, despite the “Big Four” shortstops often being lumped together, there’s a difference between them. MLBTR predicted Turner and Carlos Correa to earn $32MM per season or higher while Bogaerts is projected at an average annual value of $27MM and Dansby Swanson at $22MM.

Those might seem like small differences but they are magnified for a Padres team that paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two years. The CBT system features escalating penalties for repeat payors, with a third consecutive year over the line resulting in a 50% tax for every dollar over. The Padres currently have a CBT number of $230MM, according to Roster Resource, just $3MM shy of this year’s lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. The second threshold is $253MM, something that the Padres would certainly go over if they add one of the top shortstops, at which point their spending would be subject to a 62% tax.

Since the Padres are also looking to upgrade their rotation, it’s always seemed hard to picture them laying out a huge contract for a shortstop and paying such a tax premium to do so. There’s also the on-field fit, which isn’t super smooth since they have Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstop options. It’s been suggested they could add a shortstop and play Kim at second, Jake Cronenworth at first base and Tatis in the outfield, but it’s probably easier to just sign a first baseman or a left fielder.

Elsewhere in Padres news, Rosenthal reports in a separate column that the club is likely to re-sign reliever Craig Stammen. The veteran, who turns 39 in March, recently spoke about his desire to return in 2023 despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the second half of the season. He’s been in San Diego for six seasons now and it seems like there’s interest on both sides in making it seven.

The O’s have been deeply committed to a rebuild in recent years and have been among the least active teams in free agency. The last time they gave a free agent a contract longer than one year was to Alex Cobb back in March of 2018. The O’s have endured five straight losing seasons from 2017 to 2021, with the club finishing last in the American League East in all four full, 162-game seasons in that stretch. However, the club turned a corner in 2022, with their young core starting to emerge and helping the club go 83-79. That still only amounted to a fourth-place finish in the division, but they flirted with the postseason race for much of the second half and seem poised to see better results going forward.

On the heels of that step forward, general manager Mike Elias has spoken about going into a more competitive phase of the club’s rebuilding plan, though he has also attempted to temper expectations at the same time. “We’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” Elias said, which would seem to be a coded way of saying that they will be more active than in years past but aren’t planning to suddenly jump to the top of the market.

Still, there are reasons for them to at least hover around the market and keep an eye on it. Just one year ago, Correa didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for and ended up settling for a three-year deal with high salaries and opt outs after each season. If one of the “Big Four” found themselves in a similar situation this year, the O’s would be a good to try to take advantage of it.

Since the O’s have eschewed spending for so long, their payroll outlook is essentially clear. Their commitments for 2023 are just $41MM, according to Roster Resource, less than what Max Scherzer will make by himself. Despite their recent devotion to skinflintism, they ran payrolls around $150MM from 2016 to 2018 and can surely start inching their way back up there in the coming years. They could easily fit a sizeable contract on their ledger if they really wanted to. Giving out a second year on a contract would be even easier as their commitments for 2024 are exactly zero.

Leaving the financials aside, adding a shortstop also makes sense for pure baseball reasons. Jorge Mateo was the club’s everyday option this year, getting into 150 games on the season. Advanced defensive metrics were all quite fond of his work in the field and he stole 35 bases, but his work at the plate was subpar. He struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.1% of them, finishing with a batting line of .221/.267/.379 and a wRC+ of 82. Mateo is still just 27, turning 28 in June, so it’s possible that he is still developing, but his numbers at Triple-A are fairly similar. His speed and defense still allow him to be a useful player, with FanGraphs calculating his WAR at 2.8 in 2022, but without a development at the plate it’s possible that is his ceiling.

In the long run, things get a bit more crowded since the club has a number of highly-touted middle infield prospects. Gunnar Henderson made his MLB debut in 2022 and played well in his first 34 games. He played mostly third base but could slide back to shortstop if that became the club’s ideal alignment. One of the club’s top prospects, Coby Mayo, is primarily a third baseman and it could make sense to bump Henderson back into the middle infield. Another top prospect, Joey Ortiz, seems poised to jump to the big leagues in 2023. He’s played some second and third base but is primarily a shortstop. Jordan Westburg’s situation is fairly similar. There’s also Jackson Holliday, just selected with the first overall pick in June. He’s still just 18 years old, turning 19 in two days, but he is hoped to be pushing into the middle infield picture down the line.

Given all those internal options, giving out a contract of $20-30MM over 7-9 years doesn’t seem like the most obvious use of the club’s resources, even if they do have money to spend. If they did consider it, it’s been often pointed out that Elias was with the Astros at the time Correa was drafted and was reportedly personally involved in the club’s decision to select him. He’s surely still quite fond of Correa, but the shortstop isn’t likely to settle for another subpar deal after doing it a year ago. He changed agencies during the lockout, a sign that he wasn’t happy with the way things were going. Though he did settle for a short-term deal last year, it’s long seemed obvious that the plan would be to return to the open market this year and find the kind of contract that will take him through the majority of his remaining career. MLBTR predicted him to land a deal worth $288MM over nine years, or $32MM per season.

The other three shortstops might require less expenditure than Correa, but not much less. MLBTR predicted Turner to get $268MM over eight years, Bogaerts to get $189 over seven years and Swanson $154MM over seven. Even at the lower end, Swanson is projected for $22MM per season. There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of suitors for their services this winter either, as the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs and Mariners are some of the clubs to have reported interest in that group. As mentioned, it’s probably more likely that the Orioles devote their resources to starting pitching, with their interest in that market already reported.

The Phillies have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a few years now. They signed Didi Gregorius going into 2020, giving him a one-year deal. He performed well enough in the shortened season to stick around on a two-year deal, but that went south almost immediately. After he hit just .209/.270/.370 in 2021, there was some speculation that the Phillies would jump into last year’s big shortstop sweepstakes, featuring Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

They ultimately stayed on the sidelines, giving Gregorius a chance to redeem himself in the last year of his deal. That didn’t work out, as he hit .210/.263/.304 this year and got released in August. They had to turn to their backup plan, which was prospect Bryson Stott. He had struggled over the first couple of months, hardly surprising given that it was his first major league action, getting optioned to the minors in April but returning after just a couple of weeks.

At the end of May, Stott was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83. His glovework at short was considered below average by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him just a smidge above. That’s hardly a disastrous season for a rookie, but the Phils evidently didn’t see enough to consider Stott their long-term solution at the position and seem to be involved in the shortstop market for a second straight year. The club declined Jean Segura’s option, creating an opening at second base that Stott could theoretically fill. Both DRS and OAA liked his glovework better on that side of the bag, making it a sensible approach for the club.

While any of the four shortstops would be logical for this plan, Turner would certainly be an exciting fit. In his time in the big leagues so far, he’s proven himself to be one of the best all-around players in the game, succeeding in just about every aspect. In 849 career games, he’s hit 124 home runs and stolen 230 bases. His career batting line is .302/.355/.487, leading to a wRC+ of 124. UZR doesn’t like his work at shortstop, but both DRS and OAA have him above average for his career. For a Phillies team that’s full of sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins, a dynamic player like Turner, who turns 30 in June, would provide an exciting new element.

Of course, given his elite skills, he will have to paid at a high level. MLBTR predicted a contract of $268MM over eight years, an average annual value of $33.5MM. The Phillies currently have about $179MM committed to 2023, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $191MM. Last year’s Opening Day payroll was $229MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they still have plenty of room to work with if they plan on spending at a comparable level this year. They would likely want to keep some powder dry for addressing other needs, such as their pitching staff, but it’s easy to see how they could fit a Turner-sized contract in here. Even adding about $30MM or so to that CBT number doesn’t get them over the lowest threshold for 2023, which will be $233MM. Plus, given their World Series run in 2022, they likely banked some extra revenues that could potentially lead to a bigger budget in 2023.

Turner received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning any team that signs him will have to pay a cost beyond just the money. Since the Phillies paid the luxury tax in 2022, they would have to forfeit their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the next draft, in addition to seeing their international bonus pool dropped by $1MM. If Turner does indeed sign with someone other than the Dodgers, they would receive an extra pick after the fourth round, a diminished return because they also paid the luxury tax this year.

Of course, the Phillies won’t be alone in any pursuit of Turner. Morosi mentions that the Giants are involved, but adds that they will likely want to see how the Aaron Judge situation plays out before pivoting to a shortstop pursuit. Turner’s also been connected in rumors to the Cubs and Mariners, while there are other teams that would make speculative sense. If one of those clubs would eventually edge out the Phillies and acquire Turner, they could pivot to the other big names, having already been connected to Bogaerts.