Hernández, 32, gets the three-year deal he’d been seeking. The slugger had called returning to the Dodgers a priority after a huge first season with the team. Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers across 652 plate appearances. He carried that strong production into the postseason, hitting three longballs with a .250/.352/.417 slash over 16 games to help the Dodgers secure their second championship in five years.

This was the ideal outcome for a player on a pillow contract. Hernández had reached free agency last winter on the heels of a middling season in Seattle. He had turned in a .258/.305/.435 slash over 678 plate appearances as a Mariner. As a result, Hernández didn’t find the lucrative long-term offer he’d been seeking. While the Red Sox offered him a two-year deal that would’ve come with a $28MM guarantee, he signed for one season on a deferred $23.5MM salary with the goal of reestablishing his market value.

It couldn’t have worked out much better for either side. Hernández had one of the best seasons of his career. He earned his second All-Star nod and Silver Slugger award while picking up down ballot MVP votes for the third time. Hernández established a new career high in home runs with rate stats that were in line with his best years in Toronto. He was an instrumental part of a championship roster.

The down year in 2023 looks like an anomaly. He’s hardly the only veteran hitter to struggle in Seattle’s extremely pitcher-friendly home park. Hernández has been an impact hitter in each of the other four seasons since his breakout in 2020. Over the past five years, he owns a .274/.328/.493 batting line in nearly 2700 trips to the plate. There’ll be a decent number of strikeouts, but few players hit the ball as hard as he does. Hernández is an annual threat for 30+ doubles and at least 25-30 homers.

Hernández was the only key offensive player whom the Dodgers feared losing in free agency. He’ll return to join Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Gavin Lux in a loaded offense. The Dodgers added Michael Conforto on a one-year, $17MM contract at the Winter Meetings. No other team rivals the potency of the L.A. lineup.

The Dodgers are taking on some risk from a defensive perspective. Despite plus arm strength and surprisingly strong athleticism, Hernández has never graded as a good defender. That continued this season. Defensive Runs Saved felt he was three runs below par in his 1308 combined innings between the corner outfield spots. Statcast rated him much more harshly, estimating he was 11 runs below average.

Hernández isn’t likely to improve on a contract that runs through age 34. An ideal landing spot would’ve allowed him to move to designated hitter in year two or three. That’s not an option on a team with Ohtani. The Dodgers are moving Betts to shortstop and will have Hernández and Conforto flanking Edman in the outfield. They’ll accept a mediocre defensive unit for the chance to stack with the lineup with good hitters.

Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández blocks the path to everyday at-bats for youngsters Andy Pages and James Outman. The latter feels like a change of scenery candidate after a disappointing second MLB season. The Dodgers will probably be less inclined to move the 24-year-old Pages, who had a league average .248/.305/.407 showing as a rookie. He still has a minor league option remaining, so they could start him in Triple-A if they don’t want to limit him to fourth outfield work.

Pages doesn’t have anything else to prove in the minors, but the Dodgers have the resources to continue loading up. Other teams figure to at least try to pull him away via trade, though L.A. could prefer to hold him as a replacement for Conforto after next season. Signing Blake Snell and retaining Blake Treinen earlier in the winter leaves the Dodgers without any clear holes on the roster.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hernández would receive a three-year deal at $60MM. He’ll land slightly above that forecast in raw money, though the deferrals will reduce the net present value to a hair below it. A three-year, $66MM deal without deferrals would have come with a $22MM competitive balance tax hit. Hernández’s number ends up around $19.4MM.

Including Hernández, RosterResource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number around $353MM. They’re well beyond the $301MM mark that represents the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 110% rate on the final AAV. Re-signing Hernández will likely cost them upwards of $40MM next year after taxes. The Dodgers have been undeterred by the CBT as they push for a repeat.

Hernández had declined a qualifying offer. Other teams would have needed to forfeit a draft choice to sign him. The Dodgers only relinquish the right to receive a 2025 compensation pick, which would have come after the fourth round. The Blue Jays and Red Sox had also been linked to Hernández this winter. Those clubs (especially Toronto) could turn to Anthony Santander, who stands as the clear top unsigned outfielder. Jurickson Profar is a tier or two below that as the next-best outfield bat.

Yancen Pujols first reported that Hernández and the Dodgers were finalizing a three-year, $66MM deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed there was an agreement in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the $15MM option for 2028, as well as the signing bonus and the approximate $23MM in deferrals. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the salary and deferral breakdown. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the final NPV.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

1:25PM: The Mets’ interest in the free agent outfield market was seemingly limited to just Juan Soto, as unlike other Soto suitors, New York wasn’t known to have any public interest in the likes of Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Santander as backup plans if Soto signed elsewhere.  However, now with Soto already in the fold, the Mets made a late bid on Hernandez, as Newsday’s Tim Healey reports that the Amazins offered the slugger a two-year deal earlier this week.  The dollar figure isn’t known, but Hernandez rejected the deal anyway and rejoined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66MM pact.

Since the Mets have the financial resources to be in on any available player, their interest in Hernandez could’ve been a case of due diligence.  There’s no harm, after all, in checking in on a talented hitter to gauge his interest in joining the Mets, and president of baseball operations David Stearns might have seen an opening in a shorter-term deal since Hernandez was lingering on the market.

This isn’t to say that signing Hernandez would’ve been a bargain, exactly, as he would’ve cost the Mets even more draft and international bonus capital.  Because New York exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, signing Soto cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  Like Soto, Hernandez also rejected a qualifying offer, and thus signing him would’ve required that the Mets give up another $1MM from their international bonus pool, as well as their third- and sixth-highest draft selections.

Adding Hernandez would’ve further crowded the outfield picture.  The projected starting outfield consists of Soto in right field, Brandon Nimmo in left, Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor platooning in center, Starling Marte likely relegated to DH duty, and Jeff McNeil, Jared Young, and Luisangel Acuna able to step onto the grass in a pinch.  Had New York signed Hernandez, the likeliest scenario probably would’ve seen Nimmo return to center field, unless the Mets were successful in opening up the DH spot by trading Marte.  Reports from a few weeks ago suggested the Mets were willing to eat some of the $19.5MM owed to Marte in the event of a trade, and while no deal was thought to be in the offing, the Mets’ openness to cover salary might hint that Marte is the odd man out.

If signing Hernandez was seen as something of a unique circumstance, the Mets’ outfield depth probably means they’re less likely to seek out Santander or another outfield bat unless Marte is dealt.  In terms of lineup additions overall, New York remains linked to Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman as the club looks to boost at least one corner infield slot.

Of the three names floated, Suzuki is perhaps the best replacement for Hernandez from the Dodgers’ perspective. He hit .283/.366/.482 with 21 homers and 16 steals in 132 games for the Cubs last year. His high on-base percentage and lesser power make him a somewhat different flavor of hitter than Hernandez, but Suzuki’s 138 wRC+ actually has the edge over Hernandez’s own figure of 134. Both are generally regarded as below-average defenders in an outfield corner, but either one would provide the Dodgers with a big right-handed bat to add to their lineup and a regular for the outfield corner not occupied by Michael Conforto.

Good a fit as Suzuki would be, however, acquiring him may be easier said than done. Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are “not inclined” to trade Suzuki this winter. The club entered the offseason with something of a logjam in the outfield due to the presence of both Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and that logjam only grew when the club added star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Astros earlier this month. Since then, the Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees. While that leaves them in a similar situation as the one they entered the winter in, with two right fielders on the roster and Suzuki likely relegated to regular DH duties, the club still seems to prefer keeping Suzuki rather than parting ways with the talented hitter.

Rosenthal suggests that the Cubs feel that Suzuki would be difficult to replace due to a thin market for impactful right-handed hitters. Aside from Suzuki, the middle of Chicago’s lineup is occupied by switch-hitter Ian Happ as well as lefty bats Tucker and Michael Busch, so Suzuki’s presence adds some much-needed right-handed thump to that mix. Suzuki also holds a no-trade clause, but his previously reported desire to avoid being a full-time DH could make the possibility of a trade that would make him L.A.’s regular right fielder a palatable option. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Dodgers could include a talented right-handed bat such as Andy Pages in a package for Suzuki’s services in order to bridge that gap, though six seasons of team control over Pages would be a steep price to pay. Suzuki is under contract for two more seasons and will make $19MM in both 2025 and ’26 before hitting free agency.

Robert, meanwhile, certainly has the potential to match Hernandez’s offensive impact but has yet to demonstrate consistency in the majors. The 27-year-old endured the worst season of his career in 2024 as he hit just .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) while striking out at a 33.2% clip, but hit a much more palatable .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) over the prior three seasons and is just one season removed from a 4.9 fWAR 2023 campaign. Robert pairs that volatile but potentially impactful bat with impressive speed (he stole 23 bases in just 100 games this year) and quality defense in center field. He also comes with plenty of injury risk, as 2024 was just the second time in his career he played in even 100 games due to a number of trips to the injured list over the years.

Rosenthal suggests that if the Dodgers were to take a chance on the talented-but-inconsistent Robert, he’d slot into center field for Los Angeles. It’s unclear whether that would mean moving Mookie Betts back to right field and playing Tommy Edman at shortstop, or perhaps a move to second base for Edman that pushes Gavin Lux to the bench (or off the team via trade) and leaves right field open for some combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Robert is guaranteed $17MM in the form of a $15MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2026, but could be retained via club options through the end of the 2027 season if acquired. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s possible that Robert would be less pricey than Suzuki given that Rosenthal reports that the White Sox don’t expect to land multiple top prospects in exchange for Robert, though they would want a “meaningful piece” in return for the All-Star.

Kim is somewhat unique as a potential target for multiple reasons. As a free agent, he’d cost the Dodgers nothing but money as opposed to a trade for Suzuki or Robert that would require some sort of player or prospect return headed the other way. He’s also an infielder who derives much of his value from being a plus defender all across the infield dirt. That makes him a tricky positional fit for a Dodgers club that already figures to juggle Betts, Lux, and Miguel Rojas up the middle. While the club could simply move Betts back to right field, it’s possible they’d prefer to keep him on the dirt and play him alongside Kim with one at shortstop and the other at second base. That would leave Lux without a position, however, and also leave a hole in the outfield left to be internal options or another external addition.

Kim is also by far the weakest hitter of the three at the plate and an undeniable downgrade from Hernandez offensively. While Kim has improved leaps and bounds at the plate after a lackluster rookie season, he’s still more or less a league average hitter with a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and a .250/.336/.385 (106 wRC+) line overall since becoming a regular in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he seems ticketed for the injured list to start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in September, though Rosenthal reports that he’s targeting a return to the diamond “early” in the 2025 season. Even so, that would leave the Dodgers utilizing their internal options to fill out the lineup card until Kim is ready to return to action.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

A three-year deal in $66-72MM range would generally dovetail with expectations. Hernandez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, already stated earlier in the offseason that Hernandez had been seeking three years last offseason when they pivoted and took a one-year deal in Los Angeles. A three-year deal on the heels of the slugger’s rebound campaign in L.A. seemed (and still seems) reasonable, even though he’s now headed into his age-32 season after rejecting a qualifying offer (and thus attaching himself to draft pick compensation). That $22-24MM range would align with last year’s $23MM salary (though some of that was deferred, dinging the net present value a bit).

With Soto off the board, Hernandez and fellow slugger Anthony Santander are the top corner outfield bats on the free agent market. Santander is two years younger but is also reportedly seeking a five-year deal after swatting 44 homers for the Orioles in 2024. Both players rejected QOs. Hernandez is the more affordable of the two but is also older and more strikeout-prone. The presence of Cody Bellinger on the trade market and the recent emergence of the now-traded Kyle Tucker might’ve combined to slow things down for Hernandez’s market, speculatively speaking.

Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 slash with a career-high 33 home runs last season before going on to hit .250/.352/.417 in postseason play. His 28.8% strikeout rate was an improvement over his 31.1% mark from 2023 but still sat about six percentage points higher than league average. His 8.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career but fell right in line with the 8.2% league average. At this point, teams can expect plus power, a below-average walk rate and more strikeouts than they’d prefer from Hernandez. He drew well below-average marks for his defense, but Hernandez has plus speed and above-average arm strength, per Statcast, so a team might think there’s enough raw talent to coax some better performance out of him.

The defensive concerns do make a multi-year reunion with the Dodgers a potentially problematic pairing, however. Hernandez has said he hopes to return — and the Dodgers are clearly open to a reunion. Beating the rest of the market when Hernandez is already 32 and there’s no DH opportunity thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani could make a long-term arrangement worrisome for Los Angeles in a way that’s not the case with other Hernandez suitors.

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.

With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.

It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.

Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.

As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea’s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.

RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.

Hernandez was a prospect fighting for playing time in a crowded Astros outfield at the time of the July 2017 trade deadline, but his career path changed when Houston dealt Hernandez and Nori Aoki to Toronto for veteran reliever Francisco Liriano.  It was a win-win on both sides, as Liriano pitched well in the playoffs to help Houston win the World Series, and Hernandez emerged as a power bat over his six seasons in Toronto.  Hernandez hit .263/.320/.503 with 129 home runs in 2419 PA from 2017-22, twice winning AL Silver Slugger honors.

As potent as Hernandez’s bat was, his penchant for strikeouts and his underwhelming defense led the Blue Jays to trade him to the Mariners for Erik Swanson during the 2022-23 offseason.  Swanson enjoyed a strong season in the Jays’ bullpen in 2023 while Hernandez’s numbers took a dip (to a 106 wRC+) in Seattle, so the slugger headed into free agency on the heels of a pretty underwhelming platform year.

Hernandez chose to bet on himself by taking a one-year, $23.5MM contract with the Dodgers, guessing that he would return to form in Los Angeles and put himself in shape for a much pricier deal this winter.  The decision was a success in every sense of the word, as Hernandez not only hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs, he also won his first World Series ring as a major part of the Dodgers’ title run.

Trading Hernandez was far from the only reason for the Blue Jays’ offensive struggles over the last two seasons, as inconsistent to mediocre performances from pretty much everyone (even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2023, before his big return to form this past season) have turned the lineup into a big question mark.  Beyond Soto and Santander, the Jays have also been linked to Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Willy Adames as the team has looked to jumpstart a return to contention in the Jays’ last season of control over Guerrero and Bo Bichette.

With Soto and Adames now off the market, Hernandez’s stock has only improved as one of the top bats remaining on the free agent market.  MLBTR ranked him 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected Hernandez for a three-year, $60MM deal as he enters his age-32 season.  Because Hernandez rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Jays would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest choice in the 2025 draft to sign him or any other QO-rejecting free agent.  The Blue Jays were willing to give that compensatory package and upwards of $700MM to sign Soto, so technically, some money is there to make a much lower bid for Hernandez’s services.

As easy as installing Hernandez back in left field would be for the Jays, it isn’t necessarily certain that he’d be eager to rejoin a team that rather unceremoniously dealt him away two years ago.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers also seem like motivated suitors due to their own misses in the Soto sweepstakes.  In regards to Los Angeles, what seemed to be a likely reunion between Hernandez and the Dodgers has yet to materialize due to a gap in negotiations, plus L.A. also added Michael Conforto to its outfield mix.

Hernández, now 32, was a free agent a year ago on the heels of a down season. After hitting .283/.333/.519 with the Blue Jays over the 2020-22 seasons for a 132 wRC+, he was traded to the Mariners prior to the 2023 season and went on to hit .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. Seattle let him hit the open market without a qualifying offer and Hernández ended up lingering unsigned into January. He did receive a two-year, $28MM offer from the Red Sox but decided to bet on himself by signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers which paid him $23.5MM, though with deferrals.

The move worked out well for both sides. Hernández put up a line of .272/.339/.501 and a 134 wRC+ this year, back on his previous pace, making his lone season in Seattle look like a blip. He also hit well in 16 postseason games as the Dodgers went on to win the World Series. While celebrating that title, he openly expressed his desire to return to the Dodgers.

Last month, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote that Hernández could be one of the first big names to sign this winter, but that hasn’t come to pass. Given that Hernández had a frustrating stint in free agency last time, it would make sense for him to desire a quick resolution this time around. But given his stronger platform year, he would naturally want fair market value and wasn’t just going to accept any deal put in front of him.

The path back to Los Angeles may have become a little foggier recently. The Dodgers just signed Michael Conforto yesterday, adding another corner outfielder to the roster. The club reportedly still has interest in Hernández even with Conforto in the mix but it may decrease their urgency. Their current outfield projection would likely see Conforto in one corner, Tommy Edman in center and Andy Pages in another corner, with James Outman around as depth and prospect Dalton Rushing lurking in Triple-A. Edman can also play the middle infield but the Dodgers are seemingly set there with Mookie Betts, Miguel Rojas and Gavin Lux. Using the designated hitter spot isn’t an option with Shohei Ohtani there nearly every day.

Conforto, Outman and Rushing are all lefties, so perhaps there’s room for Hernández in a platoon role, but he’s surely looking for more than that. After his strong bounceback season in 2024, MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year, $60MM deal.

The gap between the Dodgers and Hernández could perhaps open the door for other suitors to come in. The Juan Soto frenzy just came to an end, with the Mets ending up in the winner’s circle. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were reportedly the finalists, so those clubs could now look to alternatives and all three have been connected to Hernández. The free agent outfield market also still features Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Max Kepler and others, though Soto, Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board in recent days. The trade market could feature Cody Bellinger, Lane Thomas, Wilyer Abreu and others.

If Hernández ends up elsewhere, the Dodgers will receive compensation since he rejected a qualifying offer from them. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax last year, they would only receive modest compensation, a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing team would be subject to penalties, though the exact nature of the forfeitures would depend if that club paid the competitive balance tax in 2024 or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.

It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.

What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.

Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.

Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.

As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.

1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez’s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger.  The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.

The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto.  At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM.  Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.

Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.”  After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season.  Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.

As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services.  The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024.  Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.

The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years.  New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.

Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO).  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick.  Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.

The players who rejected the offer:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.

He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.

That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.

But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.

Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.

Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.

Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.

Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.

Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.

For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.

For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.

“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”

Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

“My hopes are really high.  Like I’ve said before, the Dodgers are the priority, obviously,” Hernandez said.  “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….I want us to be here.  I want us to be part of this.  I have so many good memories here.  I’ve learned a lot as a player, as a person.  It feels great to be part of this.”

“I love this city.  I never want to leave,” Flaherty told Vassegh, with the words perhaps carrying a bit of extra weight since Flaherty was born in Burbank and grew up in Los Angeles.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that Flaherty would give the Dodgers a hometown discount, though naturally playing close to home gives the Dodgers (and theoretically the Angels) an extra edge that other potential free-agent suitors can’t match.

It isn’t surprising to hear players on any team (whether world champions or not) express an open desire to re-sign with their current teams, and feelings could change as the free agent market develops.  Of course, winning a title again underlines the fact that L.A. should be a contending team for years to come, giving the Dodgers even more flexibility in picking and choosing how they’ll construct their 2025 roster.

Re-signing Hernandez would bring another big bat back into the lineup and check off the left field question mark in one fell swoop.  Though the slugger is entering his age-32 season, he is also coming off one of the best years of his nine MLB seasons, and he further showed his value with a big playoff performance.  On the flip side, Hernandez would surely reject a qualifying offer, putting the Dodgers in line for a compensatory draft pick if Hernandez signed elsewhere.  If Los Angeles wanted to give Andy Pages more playing time in left field or perhaps keep the position open for another outfielder (even a big name like Juan Soto), the Dodgers could opt to walk away from Hernandez and just view their one-year alliance as a total win for both parties.

Both Hernandez and Flaherty were looking to bounce back after shaky 2024 seasons, and Flaherty likewise answered some critics by posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 combined regular-season innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.  The right-hander’s postseason performance was a lot more inconsistent, yet Flaherty was important simply because he was a proper starting pitcher within the injury-ravaged Dodgers’ staff.  On paper, most of Los Angeles’ injured pitchers will be ready to go by Opening Day 2025, yet the team will surely look to solidify this group with at least one other starter to provide some durability as well as quality innings.

Clayton Kershaw is one of those pitchers with a murky health status, as the longtime Dodger ace is set to undergo a pair of surgeries on his left knee and toe.  Kershaw pitched only 30 regular-season innings in 2024 due to bone spurs in his toe, his recovery from a shoulder surgery from last November, and this heretofore unknown torn meniscus in his left knee.

The southpaw has already said he is planning to pitch in 2025, and reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that “I’ll be back, somehow” for an 18th season with the Dodgers.  This might not necessarily come to pass, however, just by Kershaw exercising his $10MM player option for 2025, as Kershaw might also look to work out a new contract with L.A. that would presumably give both gives some flexibility for the future.  Several of the Dodgers’ extensions in recent years have involved tacking an extra option year or two onto a shorter-term deal, so it seems quite possible the club could again explore such a contract with Kershaw.

In other Dodger news, the end of the playoffs also acts as the time when players traditionally come clean about any hidden injuries they’ve been playing through in October.  It was already known that Freddie Freeman was playing despite an ankle sprain and bone bruise, yet ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Freeman also suffered broken costal cartilage in his rib while taking batting practice just prior to the start of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup with the Padres.

The first baseman still played in four of the five games in that series as well as four of the Dodgers’ six NLCS games with the Mets, though Freeman was hitting only .219/.242/.219 in his first 33 playoff plate appearances.  The four days’ off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series provided Freeman with a chance to fully rest and reset, and he somewhat miraculously felt much better heading into Game 1, when he kicked off his World Series MVP performance.

Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.

Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.

[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]

Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.

They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.