Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz manned those respective positions in 2024. They were each highly-regarded prospects whom scouts felt would stick at shortstop. They only moved off the position in deference to Adames. They each thrived at an easier spot on the defensive spectrum. Turang tied for seventh among second basemen with six Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. Defensive Runs Saved graded him at a much favorable +22 runs, earning him both the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove at the position. Ortiz’s third base work was just as highly-regarded. He tied with Matt Chapman for the league lead at the position with 11 Outs Above Average; DRS ranked him fifth with a +8 mark.
If the Brewers have a preference for one of those players at shortstop, they haven’t tipped their hand publicly. Turang played exclusively second base last season but started 10 games at shortstop in 2023. Ortiz started one game there last year, the only time Adames was not penciled into the lineup. (That came the day after Milwaukee clinched the NL Central.) Either player should be able to move back to their initial position, where there’s a good chance they’d still a plus defender.
In either case, the trickle-down impact of Adames’ departure will be felt somewhere other than shortstop. If Turang moves to the left side of the infield, the Brewers will need someone else to step up at second base. That’d be true of the hot corner if Ortiz kicks over. Someone will be in line for an uptick in at-bats. While the Brewers could theoretically still address this via free agency, the remaining infielders beyond Alex Bregman (e.g. Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Yoán Moncada, Enrique Hernández) aren’t especially exciting.
Let’s run through the internal options who could earn themselves regular playing time once camp gets underway this month.
The most intriguing move would be to bring Frelick into the infield. Last winter, Milwaukee considered moving the speedy outfielder to either second or third base. That was in recognition of their somewhat crowded outfield depth chart and the risk of relying on a then-unproven Ortiz at third base. Ortiz’s excellent year meant Milwaukee wouldn’t have had many infield at-bats to offer Frelick even if they wanted to commit to him at the position.
In the end, Frelick didn’t start a single game in the infield. He played four innings at third base over two late-game substitutions. Frelick played mostly right field, where he continued to demonstrate elite range. He won his first career Gold Glove while receiving plus grades from Statcast (7 Outs Above Average) and DRS (+16). Frelick has the arm for third base, but his speed would be less impactful on the infield. Skipper Pat Murphy said at the beginning of the offseason that the Brewers were open to the possibility of continuing the third base experiment. Is it worthwhile to cut his innings in right field to give him regular infield run?
The 24-year-old Black probably has the highest offensive upside of anyone in this competition. He earned some Top 100 prospect buzz going into last season. That came on the heels of a huge .284/.417/.513 showing between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville in 2023. Black didn’t quite replicate those numbers over what was closer to a full season with Nashville. The lefty hitter posted a .258/.375/.429 slash with 14 homers across 462 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He struggled in his first MLB cameo, hitting .204 with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) in 18 games.
While Black’s stock is down slightly from where it stood 12 months ago, he still has clear offensive promise. He walked at an excellent 13.2% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 18.8% rate in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in the Milwaukee system this offseason, writing that he still possesses the best strike zone discipline of any of the organization’s prospects.
Black’s minor league exit velocities were middling, though, raising some questions about how much power he’ll bring to the table. The biggest issue is where he’ll land defensively. BA grades him as a below-average defender with a subpar arm. That makes him a tough fit at the hot corner. The Brewers seem to agree, as he only played 79 innings at third base in Triple-A last season after logging more than 800 innings there in 2023. He hasn’t played second base since 2022. Milwaukee seems to prefer Black at first base, but they’d need to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract to play him there regularly. He could bounce around the infield while seeing action at designated hitter, but he’s not a typical player for a Milwaukee team that strongly values infield defense.
The Brewers landed Durbin alongside Nestor Cortes in this offseason’s Devin Williams trade. New York had added the 24-year-old (25 this month) to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The 5’6″ infielder had a breakout season between three minor league affiliates. Durbin hit .275/.388/.451 with more walks (13.1%) than strikeouts (9.9%). He stole 31 bases while bouncing between second base, third base and shortstop. He spent more than half the season in Triple-A, where he hit .287/.396/.471 across 375 plate appearances.
Before the trade, Yankees manager Aaron Boone had at least paid lip service to the idea of Durbin being in the mix for their starting second base job. He could be in a similar position in Milwaukee. The bottom line results in Triple-A certainly suggest he’s ready for an MLB look. Still, most scouting reports feel Durbin projects as a slap-hitting utilityman rather than a true regular. Baseball America ranks him 23rd among Milwaukee prospects, praising his contact skills and speed while writing that he can play an average second or third base. He’s not expected to provide much in the way of power. While he managed 10 homers in 82 Triple-A contests, he did so with a paltry 83.8 MPH average exit velocity and 25% hard contact rate. Both marks would’ve landed in the bottom 10 qualified major league hitters.
Milwaukee acquired Dunn from the Phillies last offseason. The Brewers were intrigued by the left-handed hitter’s massive .271/.396/.506 showing in Double-A in 2023. The 27-year-old Dunn got a chance to make his major league debut last year. He struggled in a relatively small sample, hitting .221/.282/.316 while striking out 38.5% of the time. Whiffs have been an issue throughout his career. Dunn has fanned at a 28.1% clip in parts of five minor league seasons. He has walked at a massive 15.6% rate over that stretch, but that’s a tough approach to pull off against major league pitchers who have far better command than most arms he has seen in the minors.
A back injury ended Dunn’s season in the middle of June. That cost him a chance to play regularly in Triple-A for the first time in his career. He still has only 15 games at the top minor league level. Dunn has multiple options and is probably ticketed for Nashville to start the year.
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Andruw Monasterio and Vinny Capra are the other multi-positional infielders on the 40-man roster. They’re each in their late 20s with modest offensive upside. They project more as fringe roster types than candidates for regular playing time, though Monasterio made it into 59 MLB games last season. He hit .208/.303/.272 with one home run.
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American League winners….
Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.
Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.
Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.
The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.
Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.
Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.
Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.
Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.
The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.
A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.
The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.
Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.
Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.
Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.
Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.
]]>10:14am: Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick will undergo an MRI today after he left Friday’s game with a left hip injury. While chasing a foul ball in the third inning of Milwaukee’s 8-4 win over the Mets, Frelick slammed into the wall down the right field line, specifically landing within a cutout area of the otherwise padded wall. Frelick was in a lot of discomfort as he gingerly left the field.
X-rays on Frelick’s hip “were inconclusive,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) following the game. An MRI has been scheduled for this morning to determine the extent of Frelick’s injury, or what his status could be as the Brewers prepare for the start of the NL wild card series on Tuesday.
The 15th overall pick of the 2021 draft, Frelick made his MLB debut last season and moved into an everyday role this year, primarily as the Brewers’ regular right fielder. Frelick has also logged 184 innings in left field and 168 innings in center, but his 776 innings in right field have cemented him as one of the better defensive outfielders in all of baseball. No matter the metric, Frelick’s work in right field has been lauded by Defensive Runs Saved (+16), UZR/150 (16.6) and Outs Above Average (+6).
This excellent glovework has kept Frelick in the lineup despite a lack of production at the plate. While Frelick makes a lot of contact, he is near the bottom of the league in hard contact and barrel rate, and he has only an 86 wRC+ from a slash line of .259/.320/.335 over 524 plate appearances. Stealing 18 bases in 21 attempts has boosted Frelick’s offensive value to some extent, and naturally it isn’t unusual for a second-year player to struggle in his first extended look at big league pitching.
Milwaukee claimed the NL Central title even without one major force in their outfield, as Christian Yelich underwent season-ending back surgery in August. Star rookie Jackson Chourio has settled into a groove as the everyday left fielder, so if Frelick is unavailable for the NLWCS, the likeliest scenario would see Chourio in left field, Blake Perkins in center, and Garrett Mitchell in right. Jake Bauers and utilitymen Andruw Monasterio and Isaac Collins provide some further depth, plus the likes of Brewer Hicklen or Vinny Capra could be called up from the minors.
]]>Ortiz, 25, came over to the Brewers in the offseason trade that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, with Milwaukee also receiving left-hander DL Hall and a competitive balance draft pick. Ortiz has made the most immediate impact in Milwaukee, as Hall has spent much of the year on the injured list and the draft has not yet taken place.
Since joining the Brewers, Ortiz has taken firm hold of the everyday third base job. In 74 games, he has stepped to the plate 256 times, drawing a walk in 13.7% of those while limiting his strikeouts to a 16.8% clip. He has seven home runs and a batting line of .269/.373/.444, which translates to a wRC+ of 134. He’s also stolen five bases and received strong grades for his defense at the hot corner, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 2.5 wins above replacement so far this year.
It doesn’t appear as though he’s slated for a lengthy absence. The issue first cropped up a week ago and he has been in and out of the lineup since then. Speculatively speaking, the fact that he didn’t immediately go on the IL and even played through the issue a bit suggests that it’s fairly minor and he could return after a quick rest period.
But it’s still less than ideal for the Brewers to lose a player of that caliber, especially when they’ve already been hit hard by the injury bug. The rotation has been the worst hit, with five starters currently on the 60-day IL in Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, Robert Gasser, Joe Ross and Hall. That prompted the club to make a deadline deal ahead of schedule by trading for Aaron Civale earlier today. On the position player side of things, Ortiz joins Gary Sánchez and Oliver Dunn on the IL.
The Brewers have been leading the Central for much of the year but the Cardinals have been surging of late, having pulled to within six games of Milwaukee. The Brewers will obviously be hoping to get Ortiz back in short order to keep them in that strong position as the July 30 trade deadline gets closer.
Andruw Monasterio has been getting much of the third base playing time recently with Ortiz out and could perhaps continue to do so, though he’s hitting just .196/.297/.286 on the year. Capra will likely be in a multi-positional bench role, as he can play all over but has hit .246/.333/.350 for a wRC+ of 80 in Triple-A this year.
The club gave outfielder Sal Frelick some third base reps during Spring Training, but Garrett Mitchell’s injury opened up outfield playing time for him. Mitchell was reinstated from the IL on Monday, slotting back into the outfield mix next to Frelick, Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins.
Manager Pat Murphy addressed the possibility of Frelick returning to third base this week, now that the outfield picture is crowded again. Per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on X, Murphy said it “could happen” but he wasn’t expecting it any time soon. It’s unclear whether Ortiz landing on the IL today will change that framing. Monasterio is at the hot corner in tonight’s lineup.
]]>Franchise face Christian Yelich and top prospect Jackson Chourio were slated to handle the outfield corners when it appeared that Michell would be the club’s starting center fielder, and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that, per manager Pat Murphy, that’s still the plan. Chourio, 20, has made the overwhelming majority of his outfield appearances in center during his time in the minors and has just eight games of minor league experience in right field, but Murphy confirmed that the club will not change course and move Chourio to center while Mitchell is on the shelf. Instead, Murphy suggests (as relayed by Rosiak) that the Brewers will rely on a platoon featuring Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins in center while Mitchell is unavailable, with Frelick getting the lion’s share of playing time against right-handers while Perkins starts against southpaws.
Both Frelick, 24 in April, and Perkins, 27, made their big league debuts with Milwaukee last season and held their own in limited action with the club. The switch-hitting Perkins appeared in 67 games with the club while splitting time between all three outfield spots and slashed a decent .217/.325/.350 (88 wRC+) in 168 trips to the plate. Meanwhile, Frelick drew 223 plate appearances across 57 games with the Brewers and slashed .246/.341/.351 (92 wRC+) during that time while also going a solid 7-for-7 on the basepaths. The youngster took reps at third base this winter to create a possible path to additional playing time outside of the club’s crowded outfield, though it appears those plans are on hold in the wake of Mitchell’s injury.
The plan to platoon the two youngsters makes plenty of sense for Frelick, who posted a paltry 59 wRC+ against southpaws last year. With that being said, Perkins is somewhat of an odd choice for a platoon partner as he also struggled against southpaws last year with a 65 wRC+ from the right-handed side of the batters’ box in the majors. Should Perkins struggle in the role to open the season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club pivot to Joey Wiemer as Frelick’s platoon partner in center, as the 25-year-old played strong defense in the outfield last year and batted an impressive .267/.298/.517 in 121 trips to the plate against lefties last year. For now, however, Wiemer is ticketed to begin the season at Triple-A as the club’s primary depth option in the outfield.
Along with his comments on the outfield, Murphy also discussed injuries sustained by a pair of organization’s pitchers. Rosiak relays that right-hander Taylor Clarke is set to undergo meniscus surgery on his right knee, while lefty Robert Gasser will open the season on the injured list due to a bone spur in his left elbow. Clarke, 31 in May, was already expected to open the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to the injury but now faces a significantly longer absence, though no timetable for his return was discussed by Murphy. The right-hander came over to the Brewers in a trade with the Royals back in December on the heels of a difficult 2023 season in Kansas City that saw him post a 5.95 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 58 appearances.
As for Gasser, the left-hander has yet to make his major league debut but was a key component in the trade that sent Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. His first full season in Milwaukee went quite well as he pitched to a 3.79 ERA in 135 1/3 innings as a member of the club’s Triple-A rotation, striking out an impressive 28% of batters faced along the way. An intriguing talent that Baseball America placed 98th on their preseason top 100 prospects list this year, Gasser figures to contribute to the club’s rotation at some point this season, but his big league debut will have to wait until he’s healthy. Fortunately, Rosiak notes that the Brewers are currently expecting Gasser’s absence to be a matter of weeks, suggesting that he could still have plenty of time to impact the big league club later in the year if he manages to maintain his performance from last season.
]]>It’s a tough blow for the Brewers and a poorly-timed one as well, with Opening Day on Thursday. Mitchell was on a path to open the season as the club’s everyday center fielder, with Hogg having recently relayed that Jackson Chourio was anticipated spending more time in right field. Christian Yelich projects as the club’s everyday left fielder.
As for how the Brewers proceed, Murphy laid out several possibilities in the video linked above. He mentioned that the club could make Sal Frelick a full-time outfielder, give a spot to Eric Haase or bring in a player from outside the organization.
Frelick has spent his entire professional career as an outfielder but has been attempting a move to the infield this spring, primarily third base. If he were to move back to the outfield, that would open up more playing time at the hot corner for guys like Joey Ortiz and Andruw Monasterio.
As for Haase, he has seemed blocked for playing time but is having a monster spring. He signed with the club in December to be the backup catcher behind William Contreras, but the Brewers later added Gary Sánchez. That seemed to push Haase, who is out of options, to third on the catching depth chart. But he has been tearing the cover off the ball in camp with a current line of .378/.452/.784.
Haase has a bit of corner outfield experience, 356 2/3 innings over the past three years. Perhaps that could allow the Brewers to carry him on the roster as a third catcher/corner outfielder/designated hitter. Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins and Chris Roller are also outfielders on the roster who could merit consideration.
There are many moving parts and it’s possible that further roster moves might impact the decision making. As clubs around the league are finalizing their rosters before starting their seasons, some players are being released, opting out or being designated for assignment. Perhaps that will give the Brewers an opportunity to add someone not currently on the roster into the mix.
Mitchell debuted in 2022 with an exciting line of .311/.373/.459 in his first 68 plate appearances but most of his 2023 was wiped out by shoulder surgery, limiting him to just 73 more plate appearances in that season. He’s hit a combined .278/.343/.452 but with a concerning strikeout rate of 38.3%. He’s now facing another injury absence, though the length of it won’t be determined until he finds out more information about his hand.
]]>Turang, 24, was the No. 21 overall pick in the 2018 draft and ranked among Milwaukee’s top prospects for several years before making the 2023 Opening Day roster and debuting in the majors. He posted above-average but not elite numbers in Triple-A during the 2022 season prior to that MLB debut, but his first year in the big leagues highlighted some of the limitations in his game. Turang has long been touted as a plus defender and plus runner, but he hit just .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances last season. The resulting 60 wRC+ suggests that Turang was a whopping 40% worse than average at the plate.
While Turang’s 21% strikeout rate was a bit lower than the league average and his 8.5% walk rate was sound, he also put together one of the weakest batted-ball profiles in the sport. Turang ranked in just the fifth percentile of MLB hitters in terms of barrel rate, per Statcast, while his 26% hard-hit rate landed in the fourth percentile and his 85.5 mph average exit velocity placed in only the second percentile. Turang’s sprint speed was elite, but even in spite of his wheels he batted just .268 on balls in play because of that penchant for feeble contact.
Even amid questions about his offensive outlook, the glove and speed will land him another Opening Day nod at second base. That sets the Milwaukee infield everywhere but the hot corner. Rhys Hoskins has first base locked down. Willy Adames will return at shortstop. Heading into camp, it looked like the third base job could be Joey Ortiz’s to lose, but Milwaukee’s decision to experiment with top outfield prospect Sal Frelick at third base has created more of a competition.
Murphy and Brewers infielder coordinator Matt Erickson have heaped praise onto Frelick for his work at third base this spring, writes Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The 23-year-old has “immediately” checked every box the team would like to see in terms of his footwork in the infield, Erickson tells Hogg, expressing further confidence that Frelick’s mechanics on more difficult on-the-move throws can improve with experience. Erickson noted that the overall package of defensive skills at third base is still not on par with others in camp, but that’s to be expected for a player who didn’t even play at the hot corner in his amateur days. Moreover, both Erickson and Murphy are amazed that Frelick has already come as far as he has.
The result could be something of a split workload for Frelick between right field and third base. The Brewers acquired the slick-fielding Ortiz alongside left-handed rotation hopeful DL Hall in the trade sending ace Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Ortiz, like Turang, is considered a plus defensive shortstop but won’t get much opportunity at that position due to the presence of Adames. He could log considerable time at the hot corner, though Adler suggests Ortiz could also see time at second base against left-handed pitching. He’s a right-handed bat and natural option to spell Turang, who hit just .188/.278/.188 (35 wRC+) against southpaws.
A strict platoon arrangement for the group might not be the answer, however. While Ortiz can play either third or second against lefties, both Turang and the lefty-swinging Frelick (.184/.279/.289, 59 wRC+) struggled greatly in limited action against left-handed pitching. Right-handed-hitting Andruw Monasterio turned in a .291/.387/.392 slash (118 wRC+) against lefties and could spend time at third base if/when Ortiz slides over to the keystone to spell Turang against southpaws. Similarly, outfielder Joey Wiemer (.267/.298/.517, 115 wRC+ against lefties) could potentially spell Frelick against lefties.
If anything, Frelick’s burgeoning versatility and the blend of right- and left-handed-hitting infield/outfield options only gives Murphy more fuel to play matchups against opposing pitchers. Importantly, all of Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Wiemer and Monasterio grade as above-average to plus defenders at their respective positions (at least, in the case of the outfield with regard to Frelick). There’s considerable opportunity for all five to work their way into the lineup for semi-regular playing time, if not more.
As far as the Milwaukee rotation is concerned, there’s still some fine tuning to be sorted out, but one open question became clear this week when Murphy confirmed that right-hander Colin Rea will be in his rotation (via Adler) He’ll be penciled into a starting staff that also includes Freddy Peralta and Jakob Junis. Veteran Wade Miley has been behind schedule due to shoulder troubles but progressed to facing teammates in a simulated game today, tweets Hogg. A firm timeline for his return remains unclear and dependent on how he continues to progress.
Rea, however, will be assured a starting job. That’s a notable development for a journeyman right-hander who’s bounced from the Padres, to the Marlins, to the Cubs, to the Brewers, to Japan and back to Milwaukee. The 33-year-old pitched 124 2/3 innings for the Brew Crew in 2023, logging a 4.55 ERA with strong command and solid ground-ball tendencies but a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He’s been sharp so far in spring training, firing eight innings — including four no-hit frames his last time out — with a dozen strikeouts and just two walks.
Rea inked a one-year, $4.5MM deal back on Nov. 2. He’ll earn a $3.5MM salary in 2024 and is guaranteed that plus a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2025 season. He can also pick up an additional $500K of incentives each season, based on innings pitched, giving him the opportunity to earn $10MM over the next two seasons in Milwaukee.
]]>Williams, 29, has established himself among the game’s most elite closers in recent years. Though the right-hander made his debut late in the 2019 season, he retained rookie eligibility into the 2020 season, which saw him dominant to an superlative 0.33 ERA with a 0.86 FIP in 27 innings of work, a strong enough performance to earn him the NL Rookie of the Year award during the shortened season. Since then, he’s settled in as one of the most reliably dominant relief arms in the game, having compiled a microscopic 1.75 ERA and 2.26 FIP in 200 1/3 innings over the past four years while striking out a whopping 40.5% of batters faced.
He enjoyed a characteristically excellent season in 2023, posting a 1.53 ERA in 61 appearances while collecting a career-best 36 saves and striking out opponents at a 37.7% clip. That dominance led to some trade speculation this winter as the club parted ways with both manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes, though no deal ever came together regarding Williams and it’s unclear if the Brewers even shopped their relief ace. The right-hander remains under team control in Milwaukee through the end of the 2025 season, so it’s possible the club could look to part ways with Williams at some point in the future, but for the time being the right-hander appears poised to return to his role as Brewers closer come Opening Day if he’s healthy enough to take the field.
More from Brewers camp…
Frelick, 24 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and made his big league debut last season. In 57 games at the big league level last year, the lefty-swinging outfield slashed a decent .246/.341/.351 for the Brewers, putting him right around league average despite modest power production. While his first taste of big league action may have left something to be desired, Frelick was a consensus top-40 prospect entering the 2023 season and sports a career .314/.393/.451 slash line for his career in the minors, including a .311/.388/.432 line at the Triple-A level. Despite that strong pedigree, Frelick appears blocked in the outfield by likely regulars Yelich, Chourio, and Mitchell.
Given this, it’s not necessarily a surprise that Frelick has garnered interest on the trade market. The youngster was recently reported as of interest to the Padres, who have a barren outfield mix after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx earlier this winter. With that being said, the Brewers appear, at least for now, appear to be looking for ways to get Frelick’s bat into their own lineup rather than shipping him elsewhere. Rosenthal reports that Frelick is preparing to play both second and third base in addition to the outfield this spring. With Willy Adames entrenched at shortstop barring a trade, Frelick would join an infield mix in Milwaukee that currently features Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang as the likely starting options with Andruw Monasterio, Owen Miller, and top infield prospect Tyler Black also in the mix for playing time.
More from around the NL Central…
The San Diego offseason has largely been defined by financial concerns. The club’s aggressive spending in past offseasons, as well as the collapse of their TV deal with Diamond Sports group, left them having to cut payroll this winter. The largest chunk that they cut out of their spending was when they traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for several young pitchers. Soto eventually agreed to a $31MM salary in his final arbitration year and Grisham agreed at $5.5MM.
The Friars have since signed a few relievers but the payroll is well down. Roster Resource has them at $159MM in terms of pure payroll and $216MM in terms of the competitive balance tax, the wide disparity owing to some backloaded deals, since the CBT is calculated by a contract’s average annual value. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Padres had an Opening Day payroll of $249MM last year, which they are now significantly below. The club reportedly prefers to keep their CBT under the $237MM threshold, giving them about $20MM of wiggle room, which tracks with recent reporting that the club has about $20-30MM left to spend this offseason.
But they still have many holes to fill. The rotation could use another arm or maybe two. There’s room for a designated hitter or potent bench bat type, while the two outfield vacancies still remain. The club recently re-signed Jurickson Profar, but he would be best served to be in a bench/utility role rather than an everyday player.
Given the number of spots to fill and the tight budget, the club has naturally explored cheap external options. It was reported last week that the club had interest of Jarren Duran of the Red Sox. Both he and Frelick are still in their pre-arbitration years, meaning they could potentially provide the Padres with many years of cheap control. However, the flip side is that the acquisition cost in terms of players heading the other way would naturally be higher.
Frelick, 24 in April, made his MLB debut last year and generally performed well. His 16.6% strikeout rate was well below league average and his 12.2% walk rate a few ticks above. He only hit three home runs in his 57 games, but his .246/.341/.351 slash line still got him close to league average overall, a 92 wRC+. He also stole seven bases without being caught while getting strong grades for his glovework. He produced six Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average in that brief showing last year, while also getting a mark of 4.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating.
In addition to that promising debut, he also carries prospect pedigree with him. He was selected by the Brewers with the 15th overall pick in 2021 and was been considered a top 100 prospect while pushing towards the big leagues. Even though his power impact is considered limited, he is still expected to be a viable gap hitter who provides value via his on-base abilities, speed and defense. If the power were to develop later as he matures, that would only improve the equation.
It’s understandable that the Padres would be interested in such a player, as he is clearly talented and also comes with six cheap years of control. That also makes him attractive to the Brewers, however, and they are undoubtedly setting a high asking price.
It’s possible they have some openness to a deal based on their roster, as they have plenty of other outfielders on hand. Prospect Jackson Chourio could be in the picture this year after signing an $82MM extension. Christian Yelich is still a regular in left. Frelick would be in the mix for playing time alongside players like Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins and Chris Roller. It’s possible to subtract Frelick from there and still have a decent outfield. Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell are all glove-first types but Chourio is expected to cover center field for years to come, so perhaps they would be better off trading someone from that group and getting a typical power bat to put into a corner.
It’s unclear when these talks took place or if anything got close. Despite their recent Corbin Burnes trade, the Brewers aren’t tanking, as they targeted MLB-ready pieces in that deal and have spent money on players like Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and Jakob Junis. If they were to consider any kind of Frelick trade, they would likely be looking for players who could help them compete in 2024. Whether the Padres have the pieces to get that done, and the willingness to give them up, remains to be seen.
Elsewhere in Padres’ notes, Lin adds that it’s unclear if Ha-Seong Kim would be eligible for a qualifying offer if traded between the Padres’ Seoul Series and the resumption of their season. Players are normally ineligible for a qualifying offer if traded midseason. The Padres have an unusual start to their schedule, with two games in Seoul against the Dodgers March 20 and 21, then a gap until they play the Giants on the league-wide Opening Day of March 28 in San Diego.
Kim is an impending free agent, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 but those provisions are almost never picked up by both sides. With the Padres looking to cut some costs, Kim’s name has popped up in trade rumors. The Padres could move Jake Cronenworth back to second base and then use the money saved by trading Kim to find first base help. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that they may prefer to hold off on such a deal until after the Seoul Series so that Kim can play in front of the fans of his home country.
But taking such a path may not allow them to market a future QO to a trading partner. Hypothetically, a team acquiring Kim might plan on making him a QO at season’s end and recouping some the value that they gave in the trade. Such a situation has never previously occurred and Lin reports that MLB and the MLBPA would have to discuss it if it came to pass, which would seem to muddy the waters a bit on a possible trade.
]]>Five Big Hype Prospects
Robert Gasser, 24, SP, MIL (AAA)
90.1 IP, 10.86 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 4.18 ERA
One of the best pitching prospects remaining in Triple-A, Gasser could find his way into the Milwaukee rotation by the end of the season – if not sooner. Presently, the weak links are Colin Rea and Adrian Houser. Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return to oust one of those swingmen. Gasser is a southpaw with unusual arm action, but the Brewers pitching development staff specializes in the bizarre and grotesque, so Gasser could scarcely be in a better system for his particular brand of pitching. While he doesn’t have visually impressive stuff, the whole repertoire plays up due to plus command. Gasser might have some issues with right-handed batters.
Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (AAA)
173 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .311/.376/.497
The 2023 campaign hasn’t gone Mead’s way. Between missed time and a slow start, the powerful corner-man has only three home runs. Lately, he’s caught fire to the tune of .431/.493/.677 over his last 75 plate appearances, with nine walks and four strikeouts. While he has only one home run during this hot streak, Mead also swatted nine doubles and two triples. Over-the-fence results will come before long. In the meantime, Mead is swinging a big stick with the sorts of exit velocities associated with MLB regulars (89.4-mph average, 109.5-mph max).
Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, 23, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 264 PA, 16 HR, .307/.386/.614
The Mets recently recalled Vientos despite mediocre performance on the farm, as Vientos has hit .264/.316/.472 (90 wRC+) in 57 Triple-A plate appearances since the start of July. He thrived in the minors earlier in the season and certainly deserves an extended look with the retooling Mets. Vientos presents a complicated evaluation, as his positives include plus discipline, premium raw power, and exciting in-game exit velocities. However, scouts point out issues with his swing which could prove exploitable. In 99 career MLB plate appearances, Vientos is batting just .189/.253/.267 despite excellent exit velocities (93.3-mph average, 114.9-mph max). Those are basically the exact same EVs as Juan Soto and MJ Melendez. The Melendez comp is interesting, as the young Royals slugger is having a rough season due partly to swing-and-miss issues and partly to an expansive home venue. Vientos faces similar challenges with his swing and ballpark.
Sal Frelick, OF, 23, MIL (MLB)
(AAA) 183 PA, 2 HR, 8 SB, .237/.333/.342
Recently promoted to Milwaukee, it is hoped Frelick can become a top-of-the-lineup sparkplug. He’s known for discipline and a high rate of contact. He’s also not a particularly impactful hitter. Frelick connects with the same sort of oomph as Whit Merrifield and Steven Kwan. In fact, Kwan isn’t a bad comp – they’re both 5’9’’ left-handed hitting center fielders who fit better defensively in a corner. Frelick has a better chance to stick in center while at the plate, Kwan has superior feel for contact. The end result might wind up in the same neighborhood – a no-doubt Major League starter who nonetheless fits awkwardly within the current roster-design meta.
Cade Horton, 21, SP, CHC (A+)
43 IP, 12.56 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.19 ERA
Horton hype season is in full swing. One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects per list-makers, Horton features a typical repertoire with mid-90s heat, multiple breaking balls, and a usable platoon changeup. The Cubs org is well-regarded when it comes to pitch design, a feature Horton could exploit as he moves up the ladder. He has enough feel for command to move quickly once the kid gloves are off. Presently, said gloves are on due to recovery from UCL replacement. He usually takes a week or more between starts of 15 to 20 batters. His last two outings have been among his shakiest of the season.
Three More
Coby Mayo, BAL (21): One of the nice things about Triple-A is access to minor league exit velocities. Mayo may not be hitting well through his first 36 plate appearances in Norfolk, but he has produced encouraging EVs – 90.6-mph average and 111.8-mph max. He’s currently batting .219/.278/.375 with a 36.1 percent strikeout rate.
Colt Keith, DET (21): Another recent promotee to Triple-A, Keith is hitting a modest .274/.347/.403 in 72 plate appearances. His EVs – 88.5-mph average and 108.9-mph max – are in line with figures from last season. I was hoping to see some obvious growth in this respect. His defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. We’ll see if the coming weeks bring harder contact.
Evan Carter, TEX (20): Despite success in Double-A, Carter has yet to receive a promotion. He’s batting .298/.415/.462 in 316 plate appearances. These stats match the scouting report. He has a superb eye and a solid feel for contact. The quality of that contact is…fine. It’s fine. Really. Given his current prospect pedigree, I’d really like to see better than “fine.”
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
]]>12:50PM: The Brewers are promoting top outfield prospect Sal Frelick, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). Frelick’s first game with Milwaukee will mark the 23-year-old’s big league debut.
It was a little over two years ago that the Brewers selected Frelick with the 15th overall pick of the 2021 draft, so it has been a pretty quick road to the majors for the Boston College product. In fact, it is quite possible Frelick might’ve been on Milwaukee’s roster even earlier if he didn’t have to undergo thumb surgery in April, and he missed a little under two months while recovering.
This notable injury might explain Frelick’s underwhelming numbers with Triple-A Nashville this season. After hitting .365/.435/.508 over 215 at Triple-A in 2022, there was some speculation that Frelick might make the Brewers’ roster in Spring Training. However, he was optioned to the minors for more seasoning, and hasn’t really gotten on track, hitting .247/.333/.342 over 183 PA. Frelick has been hitting better over the last week, and despite this small sample size, the Brewers brass has apparently seen enough to believe that Frelick is ready for the Show.
Of course, the shaky state of Milwaukee’s outfield has also left the club looking for any answers it can find. Left fielder Christian Yelich is enjoying a tremendous season, but center field and right field have been revolving doors. Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor, Blake Perkins, Raimel Tapia, Jesse Winker, Owen Miller, and the injured Brian Anderson and Garrett Mitchell have all gotten varying degrees of playing time without anyone providing particularly much offense. It remains to be seen exactly how long of a look Frelick might get in his first taste of the big leagues, but there’s plenty of opportunity for him to quickly carve out a niche for himself if he hits well.
Even despite his injury-shortened 2023 campaign, midseason prospect rankings are still quite high on Frelick’s potential. MLB Pipeline rates Frelick 17th on their list, with Baseball America (30th) and the Athletic’s Keith Law (31st) not far behind. All outlets give him a 70-grade for speed, and Frelick has stolen 44 bases from 58 chances over his minor league career. Pipeline and BA also give Frelick a 70-grade for his hitting ability, praising his approach at the plate and his excellent knack for drawing walks. Frelick’s power is still a question mark, and Pipeline is a little questionable about Frelick’s ability to stick in center field even if Baseball America and Law are both more bullish. Law writes that Frelick is “at least a 60 defender in center,” and uses Brett Gardner as a possible comp for Frelick at the MLB level.
]]>Manager Craig Counsell informed reporters on Friday that a surgical option looked likely. A specific timetable hasn’t been announced but Counsell noted at the time that surgery would threaten his entire season. It’s a brutal blow to halt an impressive start to the year for the 24-year-old. The UCLA product had connected on a trio of home runs with a .259/.306/.446 line through 62 trips to the plate.
Mitchell is sure to land on the 60-day injured list whenever Milwaukee needs to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. He’ll collect service time for his time spent rehabbing and surpass the one-year threshold this season. The former top prospect won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.
With Mitchell out, the Brewers have kicked rookie Joey Wiemer from right to center field. The biggest uptick in playing time has gone to Blake Perkins, while Brian Anderson has rotated between third base and right field. Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau have picked up a few extra infield reps while Anderson has been on the grass.
Mitchell’s injury theoretically could’ve opened the door for another top outfield prospect, Sal Frelick, to make his major league debut. Unfortunately, Frelick coincidentally suffered a left thumb injury while playing for Triple-A Nashville at the same time Mitchell went down. McCalvy tweets that Frelick also required surgery to repair the UCL in his thumb. He’s already gone under the knife and is expected to miss six to eight weeks.
A Boston College product, Frelick has mashed at a .323/.399/.464 clip in parts of three minor league seasons. The 2021 first round draftee had played his way to Nashville last year and hit .365/.435/.508 in 46 games. He’d been off to a slow start through this season’s first few weeks, though his overall minor league track record could’ve put him on the radar for a promotion. He’ll instead be out into June. Because Frelick suffered the injury while in the minor leagues, he won’t accrue any MLB service for his time spent on the IL.
]]>A consensus top-50 prospect heading into the season, Frelick was picked 15th overall by the Brewers in the 2021 draft, and he has mostly been tearing up minor league pitching during his brief pro career. He played in 46 Triple-A games last season and was projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023, though Frelick has been set back by both his thumb problem and a slow start in general, as he has hit a modest .232/.318/.321 over 65 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Had he been healthy, Frelick might have been in the majors as early as this weekend, given that Garrett Mitchell might be facing a season-ending shoulder surgery. Once Frelick is himself healthy, he’ll certainly be on Milwaukee’s radar as a possible answer to its outfield depth issues.
More from around the NL Central….