10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

This doesn’t indicate that Suarez will actually be dealt, of course, or that the Padres have any particular inclination to move the All-Star closer.  But, Suarez’s trade status might be elevated due to the simple fact that San Diego might be able to more easily replace him within the bullpen, and because the Padres’ other trade chips are comparatively trickier to deal away.

Among players mentioned in trade speculation this winter, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth are owed too much in future salary to hold much appeal to other teams.  Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are slated to become free agents next winter, and Michael King is in the same boat, as his contract’s $15MM mutual option for 2026 will surely be declined by either King himself or by the Padres.  Reports have indicated that if San Diego does trade a starter, Cease is likelier to be moved than King, due to the perception that King is the likelier of the two to be open to extension talks.  As for Arraez, the Padres reportedly have a particular interest in keeping him for at least 2025.

It all leaves Suarez as something of the odd man out, though plenty of obstacles exist on that front as well.  Suarez turns 34 month, and is owed $26MM over the remaining three years of the five-year, $46MM pact he signed with San Diego in November 2022.  That $26MM breaks down as $10MM in 2025, and then Suarez has the option of deciding whether or not to opt out of the deal to test free agency, or simultaneously exercise a pair of $8MM player options covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Just two months ago, this contract structure was seemingly an obstacle towards a deal, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote that “for now” the Padres weren’t looking to trade Suarez.  Last month, however, the team’s stance seemed to change, as the Padres were thought to be more open to the idea of moving Suarez due to some interest on the trade market.

While many teams could use a high-leverage reliever, working out an acceptable trade return will be tricky for both sides.  Another team might only view Suarez as a one-year investment due to the possibility of an opt-out, while the Padres might view such a trade return as too slight for a pitcher who could end up providing his new club with three years of control.

Beginning his career pitching in the Mexican League and then a long stint in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez didn’t make his debut in affiliated baseball until 2022, when he made his MLB debut at age 31.  The Padres were impressed enough by Suarez’s NPB production to sign him to a one-year, $11MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, and the team’s belief has paid off.  While his season was marred by injuries and a 10-game sticky-stuff suspension, Suarez was excellent in both 2022 and this past season, when he succeeded Josh Hader as San Diego’s closer.

Suarez posted a 2.77 ERA in 65 innings while closing out 36 of 42 save opportunities during the 2024 regular season, and added 3 1/3 scoreless innings during three playoff appearances.  One of baseball’s hardest-throwing pitchers, Suarez paired that velocity with an above-average walk rate, though other metrics (like his strikeout, barrel, and grounder rates) were all slightly below the league average.

Between Suarez’s age, his .256 BABIP last year, and a 3.53 SIERA that was significantly higher than his 2.77 ERA, a case can be made that the Padres could be making a wise move in selling high on Suarez in advance of any regression.  On the other hand, moving your closer puts more pressure on the rest of the relief corps, and thins out a bullpen that has already lost Tanner Scott to free agency.  Jason Adam or Adrian Morejon might be the most logical save candidates if Suarez is dealt, assuming that the Padres would stick with a full-time closer rather than a committee approach.

Cease and Arraez have both seen their names in the rumor mill frequently this winter, but Suarez and Cronenworth have been far less frequently discussed to this point. In fact, Lin himself suggested in early December that the Padres were inclined to keep Suarez at that point in the offseason. That the club has subsequently begun to entertain interest in the closer’s services is certainly worth noting. At the time, Lin relayed that Suarez’s trade value was complicated by the presence of an opt-out clause in his contract that would allow him to head to free agency after the 2025 season rather than receive $8MM salaries in 2026 and ’27.

Perhaps as the relief market has begun to develop, rival clubs have changed their evaluation of Suarez. With righty Jeff Hoffman landing a $33MM deal with the Blue Jays, veteran set-up man Andrew Kittredge securing a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles, and some reports suggesting closer Tanner Scott could land an AAV in the $20MM range this winter, it’s certainly feasible that the possibility of being on the hook for $26MM over three years if Suarez opts in has become more palatable. After all, Suarez’s 2.77 ERA in 65 innings as the Padres closer positions him as one of the better relief arms in the game and compares quite well with Kittredge in particular. With that being said, it’s also possible that the Padres have become more motivated to clear salary as the offseason has continued and are open to dealing Suarez even if the return is lighter than they would have accepted a month ago.

As for Cronenworth, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the club getting a meaningful return for his services beyond salary relief. He was a perfectly serviceable infield option for San Diego in 2024, hitting a roughly league average .241/.324/.390 in 656 trips to the plate while splitting time between first and second base. That was enough to make Cronenworth roughly a two-win player according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference last year, a notable step up from 2023 but still well below the numbers he posted during his back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 and 2022. With just over $72.7MM left on Cronenworth’s contract to be paid out over his age 31 to 36 seasons, the versatile infielder seems unlikely to be moved without the Padres eating significant salary or taking on another bad contract in return.

Interestingly, Lin suggests that the Padres would prefer to keep “at least” Arraez in the fold for 2025 out of those four names. That’s something of a surprise given Arraez’s hefty $14MM salary in his final year under team control and the fact that replacing him at first base could surely be done for much cheaper, thereby opening up payroll space to upgrade other areas. Even Lin acknowledges that Arraez’s pricey final year under contract could be an obstacle for San Diego as they look to retool their roster. With that being said, it’s possible that the market for Arraez hasn’t been especially robust. Few teams have been directly connected to the infielder this winter, and one rumored suitor was seemingly taken off the table when reports pushed back on the idea that the Yankees could have interest in acquiring Arraez to play second base for them in 2025.

However the club ultimately decides to go about moving salary, it seems all but certain they’ll need to make a trade or two before the season begins. RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $243MM in 2025, putting them about $2MM over the first threshold, with an actual payroll of just over $208MM. The club surely wants to duck under that first luxury tax threshold this winter, and previous reports have indicated that they want their final payroll to clock in below its current level while not necessarily dropping all the way back down to last year’s $169MM payroll. With clear needs in the outfield and rotation, it’s hard to imagine the Padres achieving all of their offseason objectives without moving at least one player due a significant salary in 2025, if not more.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

1:58pm: The Padres are set to select the contract of right-hander Nick Hernandez from Triple-A El Paso, reports Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC Channel 2. He’ll make his big league debut the first time he takes the mound.

Hernandez, 28, is a former Astros draftee (eighth round, 2016) who signed with San Diego in minor league free agency this offseason. His first year in the Padres organization has been mostly solid thus far. He’s posted sub-4.00 ERA marks with strong strikeout and walk rates in both Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 3.60 earned run average with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in 60 innings.

Hernandez has regularly posted quality ERA marks and missed bats in the minors. Command has been an issue at times, evidenced by a career 11.7% walk rate in parts of three Triple-A seasons –though he’s been quite a bit better in that regard this year. Hernandez will get the opportunity to show the Padres that he deserves a chance to stick at the big league level over the season’s final few weeks. He’ll be able to become a minor league free agent again at season’s end if he’s removed from the 40-man.

The Padres will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster in order to formally add Hernandez to the Major League club. That can be easily achieved at this stage of the calendar, however. Both Ji Man Choi and Gary Sanchez remain on the 10-day injured list despite recently suffering fractures. Choi has been trying to play through his injury in Triple-A and could still feasibly return, but moving either to the 60-day injured list would clear roster space for Hernandez.

August 23: Padres reliever Robert Suarez was ejected from this afternoon’s win over the Marlins following a foreign substance inspection. Called on to pitch the top of the eighth, Suarez was thrown out before throwing a pitch when umpires examined him coming in from the bullpen.

First base umpire Todd Tichenor made the call. After the game, Tichenor told reporters that the right-hander’s left wrist had been “too sticky, very sticky” (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Suarez denied using any illicit substance, saying he’d simply applied his typical amount of sunscreen for a day game in San Diego.

Pitchers ejected after a foreign substance check are subject to an automatic 10-game suspension. MLB will presumably formally announce Suarez’s ban tomorrow. He has an appellate right, though an appeal would go in front of an MLB official for adjudication. As a result, the three players previously suspended for foreign substances this season — Max Scherzer, Domingo Germán and Drew Smith — all waived their appeals. Suarez said he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll do the same.

In all likelihood, the Friars will be without one of their better high-leverage arms for the next week and a half. Suarez posted a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 frames last season and subsequently re-signed on a five-year, $46MM free agent guarantee. He missed the first half of this year with an elbow injury. He has allowed seven runs in 13 1/3 innings since returning. Teams aren’t allowed to replace players who have been suspended for an on-field rules violation, so the Padres would have to play with a 25-man roster for the duration of Suarez’s expected suspension.

Castillo, 27, posted a strong 3.23 ERA through his first 39 big league innings back in 2018-19 but has since seen that promising debut derailed by injury. His 2019 season was cut short by a torn ligament in his hand, and he missed the 2020 season due to a lat strain. Castillo’s 2021 campaign and much of his 2022 season were then wiped out by Tommy John surgery. He’s pitched just two total MLB frames dating back to 2019.

While Castillo posted solid numbers in the upper minors last year as he returned from that deluge of injuries, he’s struggled immensely in 2023. His lone MLB appearance saw him yield four runs in one-third of an inning, and he’s been tagged for a 9.82 ERA in 18 1/3 frames of Triple-A ball.

Castillo is in his final option season and will be arbitration-eligible this winter. The Padres will have a week to trade him, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. If another team picks him up, he can be optioned for the remainder of the season but would need to be carried on the active MLB roster beginning next season. That said, if he can get back on track with a new club, he’d have an additional two seasons of club control remaining.

Suarez, 32, fanned 32% of his opponents and notched a 2.27 ERA as a 31-year-old rookie in San Diego last season after a years-long run of excellence in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The Friars re-signed to a five-year, $46MM deal with an opt-out clause early last offseason, but he’s yet to pitch this season due to an elbow issue. He’ll give San Diego a high-quality arm to slot into the late innings as the Padres try to salvage an immensely disappointing start to their 2023 season.

The Athletic’s Katie Woo expanded upon those comments today, suggesting that the Cardinals are likely to make most of their position player group available in trade talks as they look to retool the team, though she highlights Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker as players who aren’t expected to be moved. Woo places the most emphasis on first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as a player who’s off-limits in trade as the deadline approaches.

The 35-year-old first baseman has posted another solid season for the Cardinals on the heels of his 2022 MVP campaign, slashing .289/.379/.498 in 359 plate appearances this season. A free agent after the 2024 campaign, speculation has swirled that the club might consider offers on Goldschmidt ahead of the trade deadline this year. Woo pushes back strongly against those rumors, arguing that a two-year extension this offseason is the “most likely scenario” regarding Goldschmidt. Such a deal would figure to take the veteran slugger through the end of his age-38 season in a Cardinals uniform.

More from around the National League…

• The Pirates welcomed outfielder Bryan Reynolds back from the injured list today, per a club announcement. Pittsburgh’s star was on the shelf with a low back strain for just slightly over the minimum 10 days required, but the club struggled while Reynolds was away. Since Reynolds last appeared in a game on June 19, the club has gone 5-6 including key losses to division rivals in Chicago and Milwaukee. Reynolds, who’s slashing .279/.350/.473 in 294 plate appearances this season, will look to spark his club as they head into the All Star break with tough matchups against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. In recent days, outfielder Josh Palacios has filled in for Reynolds in the outfield alongside Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski.
• Phillies managed Rob Thomson tells reporters, including Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation, that top prospect Andrew Painter is set to face live hitters on Tuesday for the first time since he was shut down during Spring Training with a UCL sprain. In even more encouraging news, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that Painter is not only expected to pitch competitively at some point this summer, but could make his big league debut sometime this season. That’s surely a relief for Phillies fans, given Painter appeared poised to slot into the club’s Opening Day rotation prior to his injury during the spring as baseball’s consensus top pitching prospect.
• Padres reliever Robert Suarez is making progress in his return to a big league mound, beginning a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League as noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Suarez has been on the 60-day IL all season dealing with an elbow injury, but was a key piece of the San Diego bullpen last season with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings of work. Sanders adds that Suarez is expected back sometime after the All Star break. Upon his return, Suarez figures to bolster a bullpen that ranks bottom ten in the majors with a 4.26 FIP.

Tatis steps into the leadoff spot tonight against Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson. He’ll play right field in his first MLB contest since October 3, 2021. Tatis is expected to play right field on a near everyday basis in 2023. He lost his former shortstop position when San Diego inked Xander Bogaerts to a $280MM free agent contract over the winter. With Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado rounding out the infield, Tatis gets kicked onto the grass.

While there’ll certainly be some intrigue about how he acclimates to a position at which he has just 151 1/3 innings of MLB experience, the primary question will be how quickly he finds his stride offensively. Tatis was one of the game’s best hitters over his first three seasons, combining to hit .282/.364/.611 between 2019-21. By measure of wRC+, that was the ninth-best offensive output among batters with at least 500 plate appearances.

Whether the 24-year-old can recapture that kind of production remains to be seen. Since his last MLB game, he’s undergone three surgeries — two on the left wrist he fractured in a motorcycle accident, one on his left shoulder that had ailed him back to 2021. He also tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clostebol and was handed an 80-game suspension at the start of last August. That carried into this season, with Tatis sitting out the Friars’ first 20 games. San Diego has opened with a middling 9-11 start, allowing ten more runs than they’ve scored.

Tatis was permitted to play in Spring Training. He got into 16 exhibition games, hitting .273/.340/.432. Shortly after the regular season opened, Tatis went on a rehab stint with El Paso. He was the best hitter in the Pacific Coast League for a week. Tatis blasted seven home runs, walked six times and struck out on just three occasions in eight games. He hit .515/.590/1.212 in 39 trips to the plate for the Chihuahuas before reporting to the Padres a few days ago.

Players on the restricted list don’t count against the 40-man roster. To clear a spot, San Diego transferred Suarez to the 60-day IL. That backdates to his Opening Day placement on the injured list but still officially rules him out until the final week in May.

Suarez opened the season on the IL with inflammation in his throwing elbow. He was shut down from throwing at the start of this month after feeling continued discomfort and is without a clear recovery timetable. It’s an inauspicious start to the five-year, $46MM contract he inked at the start of last offseason. The hard-throwing Suarez provided the Padres 47 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball during his initial MLB campaign last year, emerging as one of their highest-leverage relievers by the playoffs.

McKenzie had a tremendous breakout season last year, posting a 2.96 ERA over 191 1/3 innings, striking out 25.6% of opponents while walking just 5.9%. He also made two postseason starts for the Guards last year with a 3.27 ERA over 11 innings. He’ll be looking to build on that strong campaign but will have to get healthy first. The two-week shutdown period appears to have helped alleviate the injury, allowing him to start building towards a return.

Despite the recent injury, McKenzie was listed as one of several players the Guardians were trying to sign to extensions. In the end, they got a deal done with Andrés Giménez and Trevor Stephan but not McKenzie. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time after this season and is slated for free agency after 2026. Hunter Gaddis took over McKenzie’s rotation spot in the wake of the injury, with mixed results so far. He allowed four earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Mariners in his first outing, but then tossed six shutout innings against the A’s in his second turn.

Some other injury situations from around the majors…

• Royals right-hander Carlos Hernández departed last night’s game accompanied by the trainer, as relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com, who noted that the issue appeared to be his hamstring. The hard-throwing Hernandez has averaged around 97 mph in his career thus far but has mixed results to show for it. He had a 3.68 ERA in 2021 but that number jumped to 7.39 last year. The latter figure was likely affected by some bad luck, given his .339 batting average on balls in play and 59.4% strand rate. He has started well here in 2023 with a 2.45 ERA in a small sample of 3 2/3 innings. The status of his health is still unclear at the moment, with updates surely to be revealed in the coming days.
• Padres right-hander Robert Suarez began the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and doesn’t appear close to a return. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Suarez has had his progression slowed because he “felt something” while playing catch recently. It’s not certain what the issue is or how long Suarez will be delayed, but it’s not an ideal start to his new contract. After many years in Japan, Suarez played for the Padres last year and posted a 2.27 ERA while striking out 31.9% of batters faced. He opted out of his contract but re-signed with the Friars on an aggressive five-year, $46MM pact. With Suarez out of action, the club has been giving its high-leverage work to pitchers like Josh Hader, Luis Garcia and Steven Wilson.

Additionally, San Diego placed a handful of pitchers on the 15-day IL. Joe Musgrove, Robert Suarez, Drew Pomeranz and José Castillo will all start the season on the shelf.

Odor is entering his tenth season at the big league level. The longtime Ranger second baseman has bounced around the league over the past few seasons. He’s been a below-average hitter overall due to dismal on-base numbers but continued to draw interest thanks to some left-handed power. Odor appeared in 135 games for the Orioles last season, hitting 13 homers but posting just a .207/.275/.357 line in 472 plate appearances.

Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, Odor impressed in Spring Training. He put together a .316/.422/.474 slash with a pair of homers in 38 at-bats.  The career second baseman also saw some corner outfield action in exhibition play to broaden his defensive flexibility off the bench. He could join Dahl and Matt Carpenter in taking some right field work until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from suspension.

Tapia, 31, inked a minor league deal over the winter. He threw 17 innings for the A’s last year, allowing 16 runs with more walks than strikeouts. While it wasn’t a particularly encouraging season, Tapia averaged around 98 MPH on his fastball and posted a 1.76 ERA in 30 2/3 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas. He nabs an Opening Day bullpen job in San Diego after tossing eight innings of two-run ball with 11 strikeouts and no walks this spring. Tapia still has a minor league option year remaining, so the Friars could bounce him between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso throughout the season.

Báez has pitched at the MLB level in three of the last four seasons. The bulk of that came in 2019, when he made 24 appearances. Báez pitched only twice in the majors last year. He threw 21 1/3 innings for El Paso, allowing an 8.44 ERA while walking a huge 16.7% of opposing hitters. The Padres will now have a week to deal him or put him on waivers.

Morejón is now officially out until the end of May. He returned from Tommy John surgery to make 26 appearances out of the bullpen last season. Elbow soreness cropped back up this spring, an alarming development considering that history. Initial imaging didn’t reveal any structural damage, with the club first calling the issue inflammation. Terming it a sprain — which inherently involves some stretching of the ligament — is a little more concerning and will keep him out of action for a while.

Suarez, who made his major league debut last season at the age of 31 following a lengthy run in Japan’s NPB, dominated to the tune of a 2.27 ERA (166 ERA+) and 3.22 FIP in 47 2/3 innings with the Padres last year. Following the 2022 season, Suarez re-upped with San Diego on a five-year, $46MM deal deal and entered the spring as the top option to set-up for closer Josh Hader. With Suarez likely starting the season on the IL, Luis Garcia and Tim Hill seem likely to see work in the late innings until Suarez and left-hander Drew Pomeranz are ready to return from injury.

With Suarez, Pomeranz, Jose Castillo and Adrian Morejon all set to start the season on the injured list, the door is wide open for San Diego’s pitching depth to make the roster, as Acee notes that in addition to one of Julio Teheran, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers, or Brent Honeywell making the team as the sixth starter while Joe Musgrove recovers from a fractured toe, as many as two more of the aforementioned names could be rostered to open the season as long men out of the bullpen, as the number of pitching injuries plaguing the Padres leave plenty of innings to cover. Michel Baez and Jose Lopez are among other options who could stand to benefit from the available innings.

Without a clear picture of how much time Suarez will miss, it’s hard to say how much this injury will impact the Padres, who figure to lock horns with the Dodgers as frontrunners for the NL West this season. While injuries have tested San Diego’s pitching depth this spring, LA has struggled with injuries of its own, losing Gavin Lux for the season to a torn ACL while also expecting to start the season without right-hander Tony Gonsolin.

Nov. 12: The Padres have made a massive strike to keep one of their top free agents. San Diego is reportedly in agreement with reliever Robert Suarez on a five-year, $46MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the 2025 campaign. Suarez, a Don Nomura client, had declined a $5MM player option earlier this week.

That was a formality, as he was always likely to land a significant multi-year pact on the open market. Just as the time came for him to potentially speak with other teams, he and the Padres pushed a new deal across the finish line.

The new contract will reportedly pay Suarez $10MM in each of the next three seasons. If he were to opt out after 2025, he’d be leaving $16MM on the table, which breaks down as $8MM salaries in each of the 2026 and 2027 campaigns. There is also some notable annual bonus money available related to games finished, and those incentives kick in whenever Suarez finishes at least 25 games in a season. The bonuses max out at $3MM if he reaches 55 games finished.

Suarez had never played in the majors before this year. The Venezuela native had spent five seasons at Japan’s highest level, working late innings for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Friars signed him to a two-year deal last winter that allowed him to opt out after the 2022 season, taking a shot on a live arm with a history of success in Japan. The gamble his stuff would play against big league hitters paid off in spades, as he emerged as one of manager Bob Melvin’s top late-inning weapons.

During his first MLB appearance, Suarez walked two batters and hit a third. He failed to record an out and all three runners came around to score. It was a nightmarish debut, but the 31-year-old bounced back in a huge way. From the second day of the season onward, he pitched to a 1.70 ERA through 47 2/3 innings. Suarez punched out an elite 32.4% of batters faced along the way. His 10.1% walk percentage was still a bit higher than ideal, but he had no issue overpowering opponents while brandishing eye-popping stuff.

Suarez averaged 97-98 MPH on his fastball, backed up by an upper-80s changeup that served as his put-away offering. He only picked up one save, but he held 11 leads and worked in high-leverage situations throughout the year. Aside from the Opening Day blip, the only negative in his regular season showing was a two-month absence due to right knee inflammation. His stuff was no worse for wear upon his return in mid-August and the Friars clearly don’t harbor any concerns about his long-term health projection.

The postseason ended on a sour note for both Suarez and the Padres, as he was on the mound for what proved to be a season-ending home run allowed to Bryce Harper in the NLCS. He’d pitched his way out of a number of jams earlier in the playoffs before that dramatic at-bat against Harper, and he finished the postseason with a respectable three runs allowed in nine innings. The power stuff he showed along the way bolstered his market value on the eve of his return trip to free agency, and Suarez now cashes in with one of the best free agent deals for a non-closing reliever.

Suarez becomes the fourth reliever in the past decade to land a five-year guarantee. The previous three — Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Edwin Díaz (who inked his deal last week) — each had closing experience and multiple seasons of big league success under their belt. That’s also true of players like Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Mark Melancon and Raisel Iglesias — who all bested a $46MM total over four or fewer seasons. Suarez’s track record of one-year dominance in the middle innings perhaps most closely compares to his now-teammate, Drew Pomeranz, who landed $34MM over four years during the 2018-19 offseason after an incredible second half in his platform campaign.

It’s a strong milestone for Suarez and his representatives that also keeps him with the club that gave him his first big league opportunity. He’ll return as a high-leverage piece for Melvin, joining Josh Hader, Luis García and a hopefully healthy Pomeranz in the late-game mix. Meanwhile, the successive early re-signings of Díaz and Suarez remove arguably the two best relievers from this winter’s free agent class.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. The Friars currently have around $203MM on next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger sits just shy of $225MM, and Suarez’s deal will add another $9.2MM to that tab. A contract’s luxury tax hit is determined by its average annual value, and the final two years of the deal are still considered guaranteed even though Suarez will have the chance to opt out of the arrangement. The Padres look likely to surpass next season’s $233MM base tax threshold, but ownership and the front office have shown no qualms about doing so in an effort to build one of the best rosters in the National League.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report Suarez and the Padres were in agreement on a five-year, $46MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Firkus and fellow assistant GM Andrew Ball are also now temporarily running Houston’s front office until a replacement for James Click can be found, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link).  Under Click, the Astros had two AGMs in Ball and Scott Powers, though Powers was fired yesterday shortly after news broke that Click wouldn’t be returning as the general manager.  It is possible that the promotions of two long-time employees in Cook and Firkus might be a step towards also ousting Ball, who previously worked with Click in Tampa Bay and has only been with the Astros organization for less than a year.  Regardless, there will continue to be plenty of controversy surrounding the World Series champions’ front office until a new president of baseball operations or GM is officially hired. [UPDATE: Firkus is the Astros’ current point person for any free agent talks, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi]

More from around baseball…

• The Blue Jays had interest in both Chris Martin and David Robertson prior to the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  Both pitchers (then members of the Cubs) were shipped in separate trades to the Dodgers and Phillies, but Martin and Robertson are both free agents now and could possibly again be on Toronto’s radar.  The bullpen meltdown in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series made the bullpen a particular need for the Jays, and to that end, Nicholson-Smith also tweets that Toronto was “very serious” about pursuing Robert Suarez in free agency.  However, the Blue Jays didn’t get a chance to move on the righty, as the Padres retained Suarez on a five-year, $46MM deal before the free agent market officially opened for other teams’ negotiations.
• Even with Joey Bart as the Giants’ starting catcher and a number of other options competing for the backup job, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic hears that San Francisco is still on the lookout for more depth behind the plate.  Dom Nunez and Meibrys Viloria were both recently added on waiver claims, putting them in line (for now) to compete with Austin Wynns in Spring Training.  Of course, the Giants have made a habit of cycling through players at the back end of their roster, and there isn’t any guarantee this catching mix will last even beyond the November 15 deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft.
• The Pirates are another team looking for catching help, though “in terms of resources, whether that’s financial resources or giving up talent, it’s probably not the top of our priority list,” GM Ben Cherington told The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel and other reporters.  This would also put the Bucs in line for depth options, with a new catcher or two competing with Tyler Heineman, Ali Sanchez, and Jason Delay in camp.  In the big picture, the Pirates are keeping the catching depth chart clear for top prospect Henry Davis, who made his Double-A debut last season.  Davis is expected to reach Triple-A in 2023 and might be in line to arrive in the majors before the season is out, if all goes well.

1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals

The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.

2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal

Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.

3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest

It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.