None of that is necessarily surprising. The Phillies aren’t facing any pressure to trade Crawford, and it’s possible (though unlikely) he could contribute to the big league team as early as this coming season. That being said, if top pitching prospect Andrew Painter and top position player prospect Aidan Miller are all but untouchable (which seems to be the case), the Phillies would almost certainly have to include Crawford in a trade for an impactful major leaguer with more than one year of team control. Philadelphia has not yet been formally linked to any trade candidates this offseason, but the first name that comes to mind as a potential target is White Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The Phillies were interested in Crochet at the trade deadline but balked when the White Sox demanded Painter as part of the return package. If Philadelphia is still unwilling to trade Painter, it’s hard to imagine they could land Crochet without including Crawford in the deal.

Gelb also mentioned that the Phillies are at least casually looking to trade Nick Castellanos this winter. Although it would be quite surprising if such a trade materialized, it’s not hard to see why the Phillies would make him available. Even by the most charitable of metrics, Castellanos has been a disappointment on the five-year, $100MM contract he signed prior to the 2022 season. With a 105 wRC+ in 2024, he was barely better than league average at the plate while offering no additional value with his glove or his legs. Yet, for those exact reasons, the Phillies will have a tough time trading him unless they eat the vast majority of the $40MM remaining on his contract for 2025 and ’26. Castellanos still offers value as a durable, contact-oriented hitter with good splits against left-handed pitching, not to mention as a well-liked presence in the clubhouse and within the fanbase. In other words, there’s little reason the Phillies should want to pay him to play for another team without getting anything meaningful back in return.

If the Phillies are planning to shake up their major league roster, a couple of more realistic trade candidates include third baseman Alec Bohm and left-handed starting pitcher Ranger Suárez. Gelb reports that Philadelphia has tried to “gauge other clubs’ interest” in both players. Bohm has been one of the more talked-about trade candidates of the offseason so far, but the fact that the Phillies are actively shopping Suárez, even if just to get a sense of his market, is newer information.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has repeatedly discussed a need to be “open-minded” this winter, telling reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that the Phillies might need to “trade good players for good players.” Naturally, that has led to no shortage of speculation about the “good players” to whom Dombrowski could be referring. Bohm, Suárez, second baseman Bryson Stott, and outfielder Brandon Marsh all seem like plausible trade candidates. Until today, however, Bohm was the only one whose name had come up in any credible trade rumors.

Suárez’s trade value is slightly complicated. On the one hand, he’s coming off what was almost certainly the best season of his career. Over 27 starts, the southpaw threw 150 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 3.61 SIERA, making the NL All-Star team and setting a new career high with 3.5 FanGraphs WAR. On the other hand, he spent time on the injured list for the third year in a row and didn’t look nearly as sharp upon his return. He put up a 5.74 ERA and 4.37 SIERA in his final seven regular season starts.

Therefore, it makes sense that the Phillies are trying to figure out how other teams might value his arm in a trade. Dombrowski has no good reason to sell low on Suárez. However, if he gets a strong enough offer, it’s not as if he doesn’t have ways to replace Suárez in the rotation. The aforementioned possibility of trading for Crochet is one route the Phillies could take. In addition, Painter is likely to pitch meaningful innings out of the rotation at some point in 2025. Moreover, while the Phillies have not yet been linked to any of the top starting pitchers on the free agent market, that would surely change if Suárez were out of the picture.

In a bit of additional Phillies news, the team has hired Blake Crosby to fll the role of assistant director, international scouting. He was formerly a special assignment scout for the Pirates.

As laid out in our Phillies Offseason Outlook, adding in the outfield is one of the most logical pursuits for a Phillies club that has established contributors at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first base (Bryce Harper), second base (Bryson Stott), shortstop (Trea Turner), third base (Alec Bohm), right field (Nick Castellanos) and designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber). Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas offer options in the remaining two outfield spots, but the Phils aren’t likely to simply roll the same lineup back out in 2024 after another shorter-than-hoped season. Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon, as Marsh bats left-handed to the more defensively gifted Rojas’ right-handed bat. That’d open a path for one incoming outfielder, but Dombrowski’s repeated chorus of “open-minded” approaches to reshaping his offense have prompted natural speculation about trades.

From that standpoint, it’s hard to imagine deals involving Realmuto, Harper, Turner and Schwarber. All have been viewed as core pieces in Philadelphia. The Phillies would probably love to move on from the final two years and $40MM on Castellanos’ contract, but Castellanos is a poor defender who hasn’t hit nearly as well in Philadelphia as he did in his free-agent platform season with the Reds. The Phils would need to pay down a good portion of that contract and/or include a prospect to find a taker.

Bohm, Marsh, Stott and to a lesser extent Rojas are the big league position players who could more plausibly be flipped elsewhere as the Phillies try to reshape their identity. Gelb also lists lefty starter Ranger Suarez as a possibility. Their contractual statuses are as follows:

• Suarez: Controlled through 2025 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.9MM in 2025 (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
• Bohm: Controlled through 2026 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.1MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
• Marsh: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
• Stott: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3.5MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
• Rojas: Controlled through 2029, pre-arbitration in 2025

Obviously, the valuation on each player will vary. Suarez would be a one-year rental for a club and would require the Phils — already in need of a starter and likely hoping to dump the remaining two years and $36MM on Taijuan Walker’s contract this offseason — to replace him. He posted a 3.46 ERA with strong strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.5%) rates in 150 2/3 innings this season but also missed a month with a back injury and struggled from July through September. Plenty of teams would still love to plug him into their rotation.

Bohm is the most consistently productive but has the highest salary and lowest amount of club control remaining of the position players. He also cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season. He was one of the game’s most productive hitters through early March (.360/.430/.576 in 142 plate appearances) before reverting to his usual brand of roughly average offense for the remainder of the season (.256/.302/.410 over his next 464 plate appearances). Bohm improved his glovework this year and hit righties better than usual but was still notably more productive against left-handed pitching.

Marsh can handle all three outfield spots but is best suited for left field. He’s never hit lefties well but is well above-average versus righties. He runs well and could probably pop 20 homers with a full season of at-bats, though that’d mean lesser rate stats and more plate appearances versus lefties. He’s hit 28 homers in 948 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Marsh is a useful part-time player, but his 31% strikeout rate since 2023 (and 32.8% career mark) is rather concerning, especially since he’s been platooned so often.

Stott is a plus defender and strong baserunner with 15-homer pop. He makes plenty of contact but has really only had one average season at the plate (2023), in addition to a pair of below-average campaigns during which he’s still been a solid overall contributor because of his glove and speed. If a team with budget problems and no concrete option at shortstop would view him as an outside-the-box candidate at short, his market could expand. Stott hasn’t graded as well there in 770 big league innings but has more than 2000 professional innings at short.

Rojas is an even more extreme case of the speed-and-defense skill set. He’s a plus center fielder with excellent speed but turned in just a .243/.279/.322 slash in 2024 (68 wRC+) and is a career .261/.298/.355 hitter (81 wRC+) in 527 big league plate appearances.

Dombrowski has publicly suggested that he needs to be open to trading “good players” in order to get talent in return. Speculatively speaking, Bohm feels like the most plausible fit, as he’s set to earn the most money, has the least club control remaining and plays a position (third base) where the free-agent market is quite thin this offseason. There could be paths to flipping Bohm for a bullpen arm, a back-of-the-rotation starter or an outfielder, and shedding his payroll could also free the Phillies to pursue other options at the hot corner or give them more money to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and longtime Phils beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury took a deep dive into the possibilities on the latest episode of their podcast. All three acknowledged that Dombrowski’s repeated phrases this offseason have not-so-quietly signaled a trade is likely. In addition to repeating the “open-minded” line on several occasions, Dombrowski has at least twice suggested the Phillies have enough star players on the roster. At his end-of-season press conference, Dombrowski said his club has “as many star players as about anybody in baseball” before adding that sometimes “the supporting cast” is where the biggest need sits.

Gelb notes in the previously referenced piece that Dombrowski doubled down on that thinking at this week’s GM Meetings. Asked if the Phils would be “big-game hunting” this winter, the Phils’ president replied: “Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things. But sometimes that’s not what you want. We have a lot of good star players on our team. So, read that as you would.”

Suarez last pitched just over a month ago, when he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 7-2 Phillies loss to the Twins on July 22.  That was the fourth consecutive rough outing for Suarez, as his attempts to pitch through back pain were clearly having an adverse effect on his performance.  Suarez skipped the All-Star Game to get some extra rest for his back problems, but after returning from the break to post that shaky start against Minnesota, the decision was made to place him on the IL for a fuller recovery period.

After emerging as a solid member of Philadelphia’s rotation in 2022-23, Suarez took a step forward as a potential ace by posting a 1.83 ERA over his first 16 starters and 98 1/3 innings of the 2024 campaign.  Even with his last four starts boosting that ERA up to 2.87 over 119 1/3 frames for the season, Suarez’s overall numbers are still excellent, such as a 52.3% grounder rate, a 5.6% walk rate, and very strong soft-contact metrics.  The lefty is more of a contact specialist than a strikeout pitcher, but his 24.1% strikeout rate is above the league average, sitting in the 62nd percentile of all pitchers.

Suarez’s production has been reflective of the Phillies’ season, as the Phils have also had some recent struggles after an outstanding first three months.  Philadelphia is only 19-25 since July 1, and while the Braves have had their own share of struggles, Atlanta now sits only five games behind the Phillies for first place in the NL East.  A five-game lead is still a pretty comfortable position to hold on August 24, and the Phillies can only hope that a healthy and effective Suarez can help get the club back into form during the pennant race and into October.

Some kind of decision was required since Grissom’s 20-day minor league rehab assignment was up tomorrow, but his .604 OPS in 58 Triple-A PA during that assignment didn’t exactly force Boston’s hand for a promotion.  Even as the Sox continue to look for answers at second base, Grissom will need to perform better to earn another call-up, and it remains to be seen when (or even if) he might be back in the majors before 2024 is over.

More from both the AL and NL East…

• Ranger Suarez has been on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list since July 24, and manager Rob Thomson told Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters that Suarez isn’t expected back until after the end of the Phils’ next homestand (August 13-18).  Suarez does appear to be making decent progress in his recovery from lower-back soreness, as he threw a 36-pitch bullpen session today.  Perhaps another bullpen session and at least one live batting-practice session will be in order, and Suarez’s return could be delayed a bit longer if the Phillies opt to send him on a minor league rehab assignment.  The left-hander was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the first three months of the season before his back problems started to surface, and Suarez struggled to a 7.71 ERA in his last 21 innings prior to his IL placement.
• Anthony Volpe fouled a ball off his left foot during a plate appearance in the second inning of tonight’s 9-4 Yankees loss to the Angels, and the shortstop was eventually forced out of the game in the eighth inning.  Manager Aaron Boone told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce and other reporters that x-rays were negative and Volpe just received a contusion, though more will be known in the coming days if Volpe will need to miss any time.  Volpe has an exactly average 100 wRC+ over 516 PA this season, with a lot of streakiness baked into a .257/.304/.410 slash line.  The second-year player has been hot at the plate recently and is still delivering standout defense at shortstop, so the Yankees can only hope the injury isn’t serious.
• It was a similar story for Rays outfielder Josh Lowe, as x-rays were also negative on Lowe’s right knee after he fouled a ball off himself in the first inning of tonight’s game.  Lowe was in enough discomfort that he couldn’t take the field for the bottom of the first, but his injury was also deemed a contusion.  A pair of oblique strains have already sent Lowe to the IL twice this season, and he has hit .236/.296/.410 over 213 plate appearances thus far in 2024, playing almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers.
• The Marlins made several trades during their pre-deadline selloff, and the deal that sent Bryan De La Cruz to the Pirates drew some “disagreement and discussion internally,” according to The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and Craig Mish.  De La Cruz isn’t arbitration-eligible until this coming offseason and is now under the Pirates’ control through 2027, but the Marlins’ analytics department wasn’t impressed by his long-term potential, “and a belief that De La Cruz wasn’t going to be a starter [in Miami] when the team is ready to contend.”  The Fish also had a particular interest in prying right-hander Jun-Seok Shim away from Pittsburgh, as Shim’s spin rates and pitching arsenal impressed Miami evaluators.  A Marlins source told Jackson/Mish that the team isn’t concerned about the shoulder issue that has thus far kept Shim from pitching in 2024.

Suarez’s back has been bothering him for some time, as he passed on playing in his first All-Star Game in order to rest up over the break and hopefully return to form.  This plan didn’t come to fruition, as Suarez allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over 5 1/3 innings in his first start after the break, a 7-2 Phillies loss to the Twins on July 22.  Losing Suarez for a minimum of 15 days anyway now makes it easy to criticize the Phils’ plan in hindsight, yet with nine days in between starts, it is understandable why Suarez and the team thought he’d have enough time to put this back issue behind him.

Philadelphia’s nine-game lead in the NL East gives the team some flexibility with injuries, of course, and this IL stint now gives Suarez plenty of time to fully get healthy for the stretch run and into October.  With a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts and 21 innings, Suarez has seemingly been trying to pitch through discomfort for some time, though some regression was perhaps inevitable given his red-hot start to the 2024 season.

Even with his recent struggles, Suarez still has a 2.87 ERA across 119 1/3 innings, as well as barrel, walk, and hard-hit ball rates that rank among the league’s best.  After delivering solid numbers as a member of the Phillies’ rotation in 2022-23, Suarez’s emergence into a borderline ace has only added to the team’s enviable pitching depth.  Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez have all been good to great, and Spencer Turnbull and Tyler Phillips have also been good in some spot duty.

With Suarez, Turnbull, and Taijuan Walker all on the IL at the moment, Allard might get the next opportunity at filling a hole in the rotation.  Allard signed a split contract with the Phillies during the offseason, but the six-year MLB veteran hasn’t distinguished himself with a 5.60 ERA over 72 1/3 minor league innings.

Walker is slated to throw a live batting practice today as he works his way back from blister problems, but he won’t be an option for the rotation until August, and after he has banked a minor league rehab start or two.  This might put him roughly on the same timeline as Suarez assuming the back problem isn’t overly serious, so the Phillies could try to make do with Allard or Michael Mercado until reinforcements arrive.  It is possible the team might seek out some rotation depth at the trade deadline, but that might be more likely to come in the form of a swingman type that could easily transition to the bullpen once the regular starters are healthy.

“As much as we’d love to have him, during the middle of the season, it’s not normally something that I would like to get into,” Dombrowski said, as relayed by Gelb. “Because it can be a distraction for the player.”

Fortunately, the extension talks didn’t take very long as Gelb notes that it took just one week of negotiations before the sides settled on the four-year, $22.5MM guarantee with two club options that could extend the club’s window of control over Sanchez through the end of the 2030 campaign. The smooth negotiations between Dombrowski and Sanchez’s camp appear to have been crucial in pushing the deal across the finish line given the Phillies’ stated concerns that a protracted negotiation process could become a distraction from the season at hand.

That apparent trepidation with regards to in-season extensions could serve as a clue for how the Phillies will approach left-hander Ranger Suarez, who Gelb notes the Phillies have interest in extending. Suarez is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2025 season, but Gelb notes that talks have yet to progress between the sides and appear likely to wait until after the 2024 campaign has concluded. For his part, Dombrowski noted that the club “love[s]” Suarez and that they “hope that he’s part of the organization for a long time,” but also declined to discuss the state of negotiations with the lefty.

If the Phillies want to extend Suarez, it’s sure to come with a much heftier price tag than the Sanchez extension. Sanchez’s deal is more or less in line with the low end of what pitchers in his service time bracket have received in extensions, just ahead of the $18.8MM guarantee the Red Sox gave to right-hander Garrett Whitlock but a far cry from the $50M+ guarantees afforded to Boston’s Brayan Bello and Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene. Suarez, who will be just one year from free agency this offseason, is in a completely different realm of contract expectations.

The two hurlers to sign extensions with just one year to go before free agency in recent memory are Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo and Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, both of whom did so shortly after being dealt to new teams the previous summer. Castillo signed a $108MM guarantee over five years with Seattle, while Berrios signed in Toronto on a seven-year deal that guaranteed him $131MM. Both hurlers had a much longer track record of success in the starting rotation at the time of their extensions than Suarez, who didn’t become a full-time starting pitcher until the 2022 season.

On the other hand, however, Suarez has undeniably been more dominant than either hurler in the years leading up to the start of extension negotiations. The lefty has pitched to a 2.91 ERA (142 ERA+) with a 3.39 FIP in 478 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season. That eclipses the work of both Berrios (118 ERA+, 3.78 FIP) and Castillo (132 ERA+, 3.43 FIP) on a rate basis in their final four years before signing, though both Castillo and Berrios had 120+ additional innings of work over that same timeframe. Much of Suarez’s ultimate price tag will surely depend on how he finishes the 2024 campaign; the lefty currently leads all of MLB with an incredible 1.75 ERA through 15 starts this year and figures to find himself in the thick of the Cy Young conversation at year’s end if he can keep anything close to this production up over a full year.

Suárez played catch without issue today and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Wednesday, manager Rob Thomson told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The Phils will know after tomorrow’s throwing session whether Suárez can take the ball for his next start. The 28-year-old would be lined up opposite Sean Manaea and the Mets on Saturday in London.

Arguably the best pitcher in the majors through two months, Suárez carries an MLB-leading 1.70 ERA over 74 innings. He has punched out 28.5% of batters faced while running an excellent 53.7% ground-ball rate. Opposing hitters have turned in a pitiful .167/.225/.261 slash line over 277 trips to the plate. Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez have all been excellent, giving the Phillies perhaps the top rotation in MLB.

That’s one of myriad reasons the Phils have built a seven-game lead over the Braves in the NL East. Philadelphia’s 43-19 record matches the Yankees’ mark for the best in the majors. They haven’t missed a beat despite losing Trea Turner to a hamstring strain exactly a month ago.

Edmundo Sosa has excelled since taking over for Turner. Sosa is hitting .303/.367/.556 in 110 plate appearances. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have credited him with plus glovework in more than 200 shortstop innings. Sosa’s performance has unquestionably been propped up by a .394 average on balls in play — his 6.4% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout percentage are each a bit worse than the respective league marks — but he’s hitting for a lot more power than expected. Sosa has connected on four homers and triples apiece and picked up five doubles in only 33 games.

While he’s certainly playing well enough to stick in the lineup, he’s not going to displace Turner when the latter is healthy. Neither Bryson Stott nor Alec Bohm is offering much of an opportunity for Sosa to take over at second or third base. While Sosa has never started an MLB game in the outfield, Thomson suggested over the weekend the Phils could consider playing him in a corner outfield spot once Turner comes back.

“Absolutely [a possibility],” the manager told reporters (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “If he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the lineup. So, got to find a spot for him someplace.” The Phils subsequently lost Brandon Marsh to the injured list, leading them to call up the hot-hitting David Dahl to man left field. Nick Castellanos is playing everyday in right field. He has been a rare weak point in the Philadelphia lineup, struggling to a .214/.277/.342 line through 256 plate appearances.

Few would’ve anticipated the Phillies looking for ways to keep Sosa in the lineup when he was acquired in a relatively low-profile deadline deal two years ago. Philadelphia landed the infielder from the Cardinals in a one-for-one swap sending lefty JoJo Romero to St. Louis. It has turned out to a be a surprisingly consequential trade for both clubs, as Romero has developed into the Cards’ second-best reliever.

The Sosa acquisition is a nice feather in the cap for baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski and his staff. It’s one of a number of strong pickups for the Dombrowksi-led front office, as one would expect on the top team in the National League. As the Inquirer’s Scott Lauber explored over the weekend, the prior regime led by former general manager Matt Klentak also deserves some credit for putting part of the roster in place.

Klentak, who is now working in the Milwaukee front office, led baseball operations in Philadelphia for five seasons. He held the GM role between October 2015 and the end of the 2020 campaign. While a rebuilding Phils club didn’t make the postseason during Klentak’s tenure, Lauber observes that Philadelphia acquired Harper, Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, and Cristopher Sánchez, as well as drafting Stott and Bohm, during that five-year window.

As with any front office tenure, Klentak and his staff had some misses (e.g. selecting Mickey Moniak first overall in an admittedly weak 2016 draft and extending Scott Kingery). Still, there’s no question the Phils made a number of key moves in the 2010s that have contributed to the team’s success over the first half of this decade.

Lauber’s piece is a reminder that most organizations turn over front offices quickly enough that any good roster is a product of multiple regimes. Suárez and Nola were first acquired during Ruben Amaro Jr.’s GM stint. The Phils have added Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Sosa, and overhauled the bullpen since Dombrowski has been at the helm. Dombrowski’s group has also hammered out new deals to keep each of Nola, Realmuto and Wheeler in Philadelphia for the long haul.

JUNE 1: Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez exited his start against the Cardinals this evening after just two innings of work after he was struck in the hand by a 106 mph line drive off the bat of outfielder Alec Burleson. As noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies initially termed the injury a left hand contusion before sending him for testing during the game. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) shortly after the game that x-rays on Suarez’s hand were negative, although he was dealing with some swelling.

It’s not currently clear if Suarez’s hand will recover quickly enough for him to make his next start, although Thomson suggested that they “feel pretty lucky” to have seemingly dodged a more serious injury. The manager added that the club currently plans to give Suarez a few days before determining whether he’ll make his next start or if he’ll require a trip to the injured list. The lefty is currently slated to make his next start on June 8 against the Mets as part of the London series. Thanks to the two days off the team will have prior to the start of that series, Suarez was already slated to make his next start on extra rest.

The fact that Suarez appears to have avoided a major injury is surely a huge relief for Phillies fans. The 28-year-old hurler has been among the very best pitchers in all of baseball this year with a sterling 1.75 ERA through his first eleven starts this season, trailing only Reynaldo Lopez and Seth Lugo. That figure is good for a whopping 230 ERA+, and Suarez has enjoyed impressive peripherals that largely back up his excellent performance. In 72 innings of work to this point in the season, Suarez has struck out a career-best 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 5.4% and generating grounders at a whopping 53.8% clip. Among qualified pitchers, that groundball rate ranks seventh in the majors while K-BB% of 22.5% ranks twelfth.

Given how incredibly productive Suarez has been for the Phillies to this point in the season as they’ve surged to an MLB-best 41-18 record, even a brief absence for the lefty would be a noteworthy blow. Fortunately for the club, however, they have an tailor-made replacement option available to them in the event that the lefty does miss a start or two. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull took the ball for three impressive innings following Suarez’s exit, allowing no hits and no walks while striking out six batters. That sensational performance in relief tonight continues what has been a strong season in Philadelphia for Turnbull.

Entering play tonight, the righty had made twelve appearances for the Phillies including six starts and pitched to a fantastic 2.40 ERA with a 3.43 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. While Turnbull was pushed out of the rotation by the return of right-hander Taijuan Walker from the injured list earlier this year, the righty has remained an effect multi-inning relief option for the Phillies and after a 49-pitch outing this evening could reasonably take the ball for an abbreviated start in place of Suarez on Saturday in London if necessary.

Indeed, manager Rob Thomson told the Phillies beat yesterday that the club will consider creative means of keeping Turnbull in the mix — be it piggybacking him with another starter or alternating between Sanchez and Turnbull in the fifth spot of the rotation depending on the opponent they’re facing (links via Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).

The Phillies’ rotation, as a whole, has been remarkable this season. Philadelphia starters rank first in the majors with 190 2/3 innings pitched, second with a 2.50 ERA, second with a 26% strikeout rate, tenth with a 7% walk rate and third with a 52% ground-ball rate. Their collective 3.28 FIP is also second-best in MLB, and Phillies starters lead the league with a 3.22 SIERA. By virtually any measure, they’ve been outstanding.

Righties Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are both out to excellent starts. Wheeler, in particular, is sitting on a sub-2.00 ERA with his typical blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Nola is sporting a 3.20 mark with a roughly average strikeout rate and a strong 7% walk rate. He’s been a bit homer-prone for what’s now a second straight season, but he’s generally pitched well in the first season of his new seven-year contract.

Left-hander Ranger Suarez has arguably been the team’s most effective starter. He touts a team-best 1.32 ERA through his first six turns on the mound. He’s logged 41 innings with a plus 27.8% strikeout rate and elite walk and ground-ball rates (3.5% and 60.8%, respectively). He won’t sustain a .189 BABIP and 92.9% strand rate, but the skill components of his performance have been terrific.

Fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, recording a 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 frames. His 22% strikeout rate is barely south of average, and while his 9.8% walk rate is on the high side, he’s helped mitigate some of those free passes with a massive 62.2% grounder rate. Righty Taijuan Walker just returned from the injured list and was hit hard in his first start, but he was a quality innings eater for the Phils last year (4.32 ERA in 31 starts) and is being paid $18MM this season to fill that role again.

Turnbull’s run-prevention thus far is right up there with Wheeler and Suarez. Through six starts, he’s pitched 32 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate that’s about a percentage point better than average. He’s not sitting at Suarez/Sanchez levels with his ground-ball rate, but his mark of 49.4% is still comfortably north of the 43% league average.

A piggyback situation with Sanchez or some kind of alternating fifth starter role could make particular sense for Turnbull, who missed  the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched only 57 innings between the big leagues and minors last year. At some point, his workload could become a factor, as his body simply hasn’t endured a full season of innings since the 2019 campaign, when he started 30 games for the Tigers and pitched 148 1/3 innings.

The more straightforward solution would be to go to a six-man rotation, but Thomson has suggested in the past that the team doesn’t consider that a likely arrangement. However they proceed, it seems Turnbull — who has already wildly outperformed his modest one-year, $2MM deal — will continue to factor prominently into the team’s pitching staff as he gears up for what seems likely to be a much more lucrative trip through free agency again next winter.

12:20pm: The Phillies announced today that left-hander Ranger Suárez has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 16, with a right hamstring strain. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti was recalled in a corresponding move.

Suárez, 27, hits the injured list for the second time this year. He dealt with some forearm tightness in March and began the year on the IL, with the club describing that injury as an elbow strain. Despite that ominous-sounding diagnosis, he was able to return in mid-May and has since made 17 starts. He has a 3.88 earned run average in 97 1/3 innings, along with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate.

It’s unclear how long Suárez will be out of action this time, but the Phillies will have to proceed without him for at least a couple of turns through the rotation. Thankfully, they have been running a six-man rotation since acquiring Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and should be able to get by without worrying about replacing Suárez.

Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported a week ago that Cristopher Sánchez was likely to just get one more start before bumped either to the bullpen or the minors. He’s having a solid season with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts, but the Phils just have a lot of established starters in Suárez, Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker. But with Suárez set to sit things out for a while, Sánchez can stick around.

That’s fine for the time being but will leave the club a bit thin on depth until Suárez can return. Prospect Andrew Painter was supposed to be in the mix this year but required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until late 2024 at the earliest. Bailey Falter was dealt to the Pirates for Rodolfo Castro, subtracting another depth starter. Griff McGarry is one of the club’s top pitching prospects but he was recently put on the development list at Triple-A after some struggles. His last start saw him face just seven batters, walking six and hitting another, all of them eventually coming around to score and leaving him with a shocking 50.62 ERA in two Triple-A outings this year. Nick Nelson is probably the next man up since he’s on the 40-man and has a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts this year, but his major league work has resulted in a career ERA of 5.38.

The Phils are in good shape overall, currently sporting a record of 66-56 and in possession of the top Wild Card slot in the National League. Even without Suárez, they have a strong group of five starters that can hopefully keep them afloat for the six remaining weeks of the season. Another rotation injury would start to make things feel a bit shaky but hopefully Suárez can return before that becomes a reality.

Left forearm tightness prematurely ended Suarez’s work with Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic, and the southpaw ended up starting the season on the 15-day IL due to what was described as an elbow strain.  While missing almost a month and a half of action is no small matter, it is at least good news that Suarez avoided any of the more serious and longer-term injuries that can arise from forearm and elbow issues.  Suarez looked pretty sharp over three minor league rehab outings, allowing just one earned run over nine total innings pitched at Double-A and Triple-A.

After beginning his first three big league seasons as a reliever, Suarez had a breakout 2021 season while working out of both the rotation and the bullpen, posting a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings.  Given a full-time role in Philadelphia’s rotation in 2022, Suarez posted a 3.65 ERA over 155 1/3 frames, capitalizing on a 55.4% grounder rate and some solid hard-contact numbers despite below-average strikeout and walk rates.  Suarez then took things up another level during the Phillies’ playoff run, delivering an excellent 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings.

Technically, the Phillies didn’t miss much from Suarez’s absence, since Matt Strahm pitched well in fill-in capacity in the rotation.  However, Strahm was moved back to the bullpen in advance of Suarez’s return, as the Phils have opted to continue using Bailey Falter as a starting pitcher.  Falter has only a 5.75 ERA over 36 innings and seven starts this season, though he isn’t alone in struggling, as Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker have all gotten off to varying degrees of slow starts.

It’s reported that the Phillies had at least some discussion with Nola this past winter about an extension, but their offer – which came in north of $100MM but south of the $162MM Carlos Rodon received from the Yankees – clearly didn’t get the job done. Heyman adds that Nola prefers a return to Philadelphia, and while 29 other teams could make a run at him in the winter, the Phillies will likely try again to keep him in town.

Nola’s off to a slower start than usual this year, working to a 4.64 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been one of the game’s most durable pitchers in recent seasons. He’s made more than 30 starts in every full season going back to 2018, and has compiled a very healthy 3.47 ERA in that time with above average walk and strikeout rates. As for this season, seven starts is not an insignificant sample size, and a slight drop in velocity in his fastball has seen his strikeout rate dip to just 19.2%, the lowest rate of his career.

As Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted about a week ago, Nola is a slow worker and the pitch clock change has been a tough adjustment for him. In any case, it’s certainly too early to write off Nola based on seven starts and it’s worth noting that the bulk of the damage was done in his first three starts, and he’s averaging almost seven innings per start with a 3.29 ERA since then.

While there’s still a full season to play out, Nola’s track record should stand him in good stead to do well in free agency. While he may not possess the dominant stuff Rodon displayed in the past two seasons, his durability is far superior and as we see so often, that is a huge value add for starting pitchers. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising Nola seemingly wasn’t interested in a deal below Rodon’s $162MM.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL East:

• Sticking with the Phillies to begin with, and they’ll move Matt Strahm back to the bullpen with Ranger Suarez expected to return to the rotation shortly, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Strahm’s given the Phillies some solid value out of the rotation, making six starts and working to a 3.51 ERA – including three scoreless starts. That’s been hugely helpful to a Phillies rotation that’s been slow out of the gates, with Nola and Zack Wheeler sporting ERAs above four and off-season recruit Taijuan Walker sitting at 6.91. The return of Suarez from an elbow injury will be a welcome addition, particularly if he can continue the excellent work he put in last season, where he worked to a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts. The Phillies have made a slow start to the season, sitting 15-18 entering play Saturday and seven games adrift of the Braves in first place, so the return of players like Suarez and Bryce Harper will be critical to getting them back in the race for one of baseball’s more competitive divisions.
• The Mets are one more team off to a slower than expected start, after another busy off-season they sit 17-16 entering play Saturday. That’s not concerning GM Billy Eppler though, who told reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he still believes in this roster. “I believe in this team and the players that are here. There’s too much track record, there’s too much these guys have accomplished, there’s too much know-how,” Eppler said. While a 17-16 record is certainly not the end of the world, the Mets expected better and one focus might be the top of the team’s payroll, where some of their highly-paid stars are underperforming through the first month. Starling Marte is hitting just .219/.299/.286 while Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA, yet Eppler says he’s not concerned by either. The Mets also just welcomed back Justin Verlander from the IL, so his return to the rotation will provide a big boost as they look to keep up with the Braves.
• Kyle Wright’s MRI revealed a right shoulder strain which the Braves will re-evaluate at a later date, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. There is currently no timetable for his return. After a breakout season in 2022 which saw him finish tenth in NL Cy Young voting, Wright’s struggled in 2023, working to a 5.79 ERA in five starts. It seems likely the shoulder played a part in that step back, given Wright dealt with shoulder problems during spring training, and started the season on the IL. That’s a blow for Wright, who made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.19 ERA last season. The Braves, at least, are in a good position to weather the loss of Wright, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton all well established arms in Atlanta’s rotation, and Bryce Elder enjoying a strong start to the season.

Skubal will certainly need multiple ’pen sessions and likely some live batting practice work before he’s ready to step into game action. Petzold notes the club is still without a firm timetable on when he might embark on a minor league rehab stint. That he’s throwing is obviously a plus and provides some hope he could return when or not long after he’s first eligible. Skubal developed into perhaps Detroit’s best pitcher before the injury, working to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout percentage through 21 starts last year.

Some updates on other injured pitchers around the league:

• Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa on Thursday, tweets Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The right-hander is still working back from a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder suffered last August. He’s been throwing for the better part of six weeks but the club has understandably taken a cautious approach to building him up. Hendricks will require multiple rehab starts, with Levine suggesting the hope is he can return to the Wrigley Field mound in the middle of May. The 33-year-old worked to a career-worst 4.80 ERA over 84 1/3 innings last season. He’s headed into the final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Cubs deciding on a net $14.5MM decision for 2024 ($16MM option, $1.5MM buyout) at year’s end.
• The Phillies are also sending one of their starters on a rehab stint this week. Left-hander Ranger Suárez will pitch two innings with Double-A Reading on Thursday, relays Matt Gelb of the Athletic. According to Gelb, he’s expected to make three or four minor league appearances before making his MLB season debut in the middle of May. The southpaw was slowed by a bout of forearm inflammation in Spring Training, part of a tough exhibition season from a health perspective for Philadelphia. He threw a personal-high 155 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA and an excellent 55.4% ground-ball percentage in 29 starts last year.
• Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch threw a bullpen session this afternoon, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He’s expected to log three innings in an extended Spring Training game on Thursday before beginning a rehab stint. That could position Lynch for his season debut in mid-May after a strain in his throwing shoulder shut him down at the end of Spring Training. One of the expected key starters for K.C. coming out of their rebuild, Lynch has had up-and-down results in his first two big league campaigns. He allowed a 5.13 ERA across 131 2/3 innings last season. With Kris Bubic lost for the season and Brady Singer struggling in the early going, a step forward from the 26-year-old Lynch takes on all the more importance for the Royals in the long term.

Butto was tentatively expected to receive a spot start at some point during the Mets’ road trip, so today’s news seems mostly precautionary in nature, notwithstanding Scherzer’s injury history.  There might also be a bit of gamesmanship at play, since rather than face the struggling A’s, Scherzer is now lined up to face the Dodgers on Wednesday in a game with more implications on the NL playoff race.

More from around the NL East…

• Orlando Arcia’s microfracture in his left wrist will be re-evaluated in 10-14 days, the Braves told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).  Arcia was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday and will obviously miss more than the minimum number of days, but a more thorough timeline won’t be known until Arcia is next examined by doctors.  Arcia entered the season with the twin momentum of a new contract extension and a role as Atlanta’s starting shortstop, and he was hitting a hefty .333/.400/.511 over 50 plate appearances prior to his injury.
• Edmundo Sosa left today’s game due to discomfort in his lower back, according to the Phillies.  Since Philadelphia was trailing 8-0 to the Reds at the time of Sosa’s departure in the bottom of the sixth, it could be that Sosa was just being given a rest from the last few innings of what ended up as a 13-0 rout.  If Sosa did have to miss any time, it would further stretch the depth of a Phillies infield that is already missing Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall, as Sosa was seeing more action at third base while Alec Bohm had moved to first base.
• In other Phillies injury news, Ranger Suarez will throw to live hitters during a simulated game on Tuesday, Scott Lauper of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.  Suarez has yet to pitch this season due to forearm inflammation, and he’ll be facing at least prominent batter during that sim game in the form of Bryce Harper, who will face live pitching for the first time in his rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Initially given a return timeline of around the All-Star break, there continue to be hints that Harper might be back sooner, including the fact that both Harper and manager Rob Thomson don’t feel Harper will need a minor league rehab assignment before re-entering Philadelphia’s lineup.  Given the Trajekt Arc video projection system installed at Citizens Bank Park, Harper can somewhat replicate facing MLB-level pitching during his batting cage work, rather than face live minor league pitching during a rehab assignment.

Even a brief IL stint isn’t an ideal way for Nevin to begin his tenure with his new team, as he was only acquired by the Tigers in a swap with the Orioles back in December.  Nevin’s ability to play both corner infield and outfield positions makes him an interesting commodity on Detroit’s roster, as this versatility and Nevin’s right-handed bat made him a natural platoon partner or complement to such left-handed batters as Austin Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Nick Maton, or Kerry Carpenter.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

• Luis Severino is another player headed for a season-opening IL stint, as the Yankees right-hander has suffered a lat strain.  This particular injury is a concern given that Severino missed over two months of the 2022 season with another lat strain, but the pitcher told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that this strain in lower in his back than last year’s problem and doesn’t seem as serious.  Severino suggested that he could miss “three or four starts,” but a more specific timeline isn’t known, since “I’m going to be a little bit cautious, but I think the Yankees are going to be more cautious than me.”  Last summer, Severino expressed both surprise and public displeasure with the Yankees’ decision to shift him from the 15-day to the 60-day IL, as he expecting a quicker return to action.
• Brewers right-hander Adrian Houser left his spring outing yesterday due to groin tightness, and the club will further examine his status today.  The same injury bothered Houser both earlier in Spring Training and at the end of last season, resulting in an IL stint.  Considering the recurring nature of the groin problem and the close proximity to Opening Day, it certainly seems possible the Milwaukee could start Houser on the IL once more.  As the odd man out of a deep Brewers rotation, Houser had been tabbed for a relief role to begin the season, with the understanding that he is also the team’s unofficial sixth starter in the event of an injury.
• Ranger Suarez played catch on Friday and Saturday, telling Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his left arm still had some tightness but no pain.  In general, Suarez felt “nothing too bad” and his forearm was doing “better.”  Despite this fairly positive update, it still seems unlikely that Suarez will be able to avoid an IL trip given how the Phillies will probably be cautious with a case of elbow inflammation.  The left-hander was projected to be either the third or fourth starter in Philadelphia’s rotation this season, but with his likely absence for part of April, Bailey Falter will step into that vacancy in the starting five.  Matt Strahm or Michael Plassmeyer could take the fifth starter job, as top prospect Andrew Painter, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nick Nelson are also battling injuries.
• The Cubs haven’t yet decided how they’ll replace Seiya Suzuki on their season-opening roster, as Suzuki will need a 10-day IL stint after missing the last month of Spring Training due to an oblique strain.  Suzuki is making such steady development in his rehab work that even though he’ll miss some time during the regular season, it may not be all that much time. “Whether you are trying to put somebody on the [40-man] roster that’s not on it or trying to fill a gap for 10 days is a big deal,” Cubs manager David Ross told Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “And it’s a big decision.  We have so much talent and a lot of depth here.  We would like to keep as much as we possibly can because of the long journey we’re about to start.”