Maton, 32 later this month, was among the better relief arms still available on the free agent market at this late point in the calendar. Drafted in the 20th round by the Padres back in 2015, Maton will suit up with the Cardinals for his ninth MLB season and hope to continue a stretch of quality work that began with the Astros back in 2022. The first five seasons of Maton’s career saw him struggle despite solid peripherals, with a subpar 4.76 ERA in 215 1/3 innings of work across 209 appearances. He struck out 26.4% of opponents during that time while walking 9.2%. Those numbers were decent enough to keep Maton rostered with San Diego and Cleveland over the years, but he eventually wound up in Houston late in the 2021 season.

The righty’s middling results continued with the Astros through the end of 2021, but by the start of the 2022 season a switch seemed to have flipped. His 25.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over the past three seasons aren’t markedly different than what they were earlier in his career, but the veteran’s results have improved drastically as he’s posted a 3.50 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 195 2/3 innings of work across 206 games.

After hitting free agency for the first time in his career prior to the 2024 season, Maton signed on with the Rays but struggled with a 4.58 ERA in 40 appearances for them last year. Fortunately for the right-hander, he was traded to the Mets for the stretch run and turned a corner, dominating to the tune of a 2.51 ERA across his final 31 appearances of the regular season.

Now, Maton is headed to St. Louis as the first and perhaps only major-league free agent signing the club will make this offseason. The Cardinals’ plans for the winter were largely hamstrung by an inability to find a trade partner for veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, resulting in an extremely quiet offseason that was defined most by the departures of key veterans like Paul Goldschmidt in free agency.

Despite the Cardinals’ lack of activity this offseason, they’ve long been known to want a veteran relief arm who could fill the role Andrew Kittredge played last year and create a bridge between closer Ryan Helsley and the rest of a relatively young late-inning mix. They now appear to have found that player in Maton, who has just five career saves but has recorded 42 holds over the past three seasons.

Making room for Maton on the 40-man roster is Horn, a fifth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2020 draft. The 27-year-old lefty was traded to the Cubs in exchange for Ryan Tepera at the 2021 trade deadline and was eventually added to his new club’s 40-man roster, but did not make his big league debut in Chicago. He was traded back to the White Sox last February in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for the return of Cody Bellinger, but was then designated for assignment and traded to Boston in April. He made his big league debut for the Red Sox last June but struggled badly with a 6.50 ERA and 7.00 FIP in 18 innings of work.

During the offseason, Horn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox but picked up off waivers by the Tigers in November. He lasted on Detroit’s 40-man roster for just a month and was claimed off waivers by St. Louis in early January. He’ll now likely return to the waiver wire for the fourth time in the last 11 months. The Cardinals will have one week to either trade Horn or put him through waivers, where he can be claimed by any club willing to offer him a spot on their 40-man roster.

If Horn clears waivers, the Cardinals will get the opportunity to outright him to the minors as a non-roster depth option. That said, Horn is an optionable left-handed reliever who averages 95 mph with his heater and has a track record of missing bats in the upper minors. He could make him an attractive candidate for a waiver claim despite his lackluster results in the majors last year.

Katie Woo of The Athletic was first on the terms.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM.  This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald.  ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.

Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks.  Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.

The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market.  As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals.  Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.

Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role.  Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.

Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career.  Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.

Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona.  Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.

The decision isn’t much of a surprise, even though Maton pitched quite well for the club down the stretch this season. The veteran righty posted a 2.58 ERA with a nearly identical 2.57 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work after being acquired from the Rays in early July, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. Those excellent numbers may have been worth considering the $7.5MM decision on his option if they were held throughout the season, but that unfortunately was not the case.

Not only did Maton struggle badly in the playoffs, with an 8.53 ERA in six appearances for the Mets this season, but his brief tenure with the Rays was something of a disaster. His 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 frames with the club was 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and his 5.63 FIP was 42% below par by measure of FIP-. He struck out just 19.7% of batters faced during his time with Tampa Bay, but even more concerning was the fact that his walk rate ballooned to 11.8% during that time. In all, that leaves Maton to enter free agency with a platform season that casts him as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever with a 3.66 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 71 appearances this year.

That’s more or less par for the course for Maton throughout his eight seasons in the majors. The right-hander sports a career ERA of 4.16 (100 ERA+) with a 4.00 FIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. The best season of Maton’s career came just last year with the Astros, his third season in Houston after the club acquired him from Cleveland midway through the 2021 campaign in the trade that made Myles Straw a Guardian. In 2023, Maton struck out 27% of opponents while walking 9.1% en route to a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings of work.

A club that buys into Maton’s 2023 performance and his stretch run during the regular season with New York this year could potentially look at the right-hander as a late-inning option, although it’s possible he’s best suited to serve as a steadying, veteran presence in a bullpen like those of the Tigers, Cubs, and Rockies that has relied heavily on relatively young and inexperienced players. All three of those teams figure to be in the market for relief help this winter, but that can also be said of virtually every team in baseball. That should leave Maton comfortably in position to land a big league deal this winter, even if it doesn’t come at an AAV north of $7MM like this team option would have if exercised.

As for the Mets, Edwin Diaz remains locked in as the club’s closer and players like Jose Butto, Sean Reid-Foley, and Alex Young all impressed with the club this year. While it wouldn’t be a shock to see them look for bullpen upgrades this winter (particularly from the left side), they’ve already begun to make additions with their recent deal to land right-hander Dylan Covey. The signing of Covey, who has struggled in the majors but spent time both as a relief arm and a starter, could signal that the Mets don’t plan to spend much of their considerable payroll flexibility this winter on relievers as they look to reconstruct their rotation, retain first baseman Pete Alonso, and get into the thick of the bidding for Juan Soto.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 Trade Deadline (2:20)
• The Royals acquire Hunter Harvey from the Nationals (5:45)
• The Mets acquire Phil Maton from the Rays (14:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• The Cubs are such an interesting case right now. They’re not performing well, but they’re also not built to sell. They’ve got a lot of players slated to return from the IL in the next few weeks and they’ve got an easy strength of schedule after the deadline. They’ve got a strong farm system and some positional surpluses that they could deal from, but they’re up against the tax that they’ve self-imposed as a hard cap. They’re not too far from playoff contention but they’ve got a bunch of teams ahead of them. What should they do? (27:15)
• With the trade deadline approaching fast and the Tigers’ recent play, could they be potential buyers if they continue this trend up to the deadline? (34:25)
• If the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech, just how improved could they expect to be? (40:40)

Check out our past episodes!

• Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
• The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
• Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

It’s unknown how severe Garrett’s elbow problem is, but more information will be forthcoming. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X, the righty complained of forearm tightness last night and is now slated for an MRI today. It’s possible that his elbow issue has led to a downturn in recent results, as DiComo points out that Garrett has had some poor results lately.

Prior to that recent slide, Garrett had been a godsend for a Mets bullpen that has been an issue all year. Through May 22, he had tossed 26 innings with just three earned runs allowed, leading to an ERA of 1.04. His 11.3% walk rate in that time was a tad high but he had a massive 40.3% strikeout rate and a solid 42% ground ball rate. For a 31-year-old that the Mets claimed off waivers from the Orioles last summer, he seemed like a tremendous find.

He has a 7.88 ERA in 16 innings since then, which is a small sample but his rate stats have also changed. His 25.6% strikeout rate in that time is still strong but a big drop from where he was before and his walk rate also ticked up to 12.8%. His velocity didn’t seem to suffer, as it’s actually ticked up as the season has gone along. His fastball averaged 95.8 miles per hour in April and ramped up each month to land at 98.3 so far in July.

Despite the recent struggles, the Mets don’t want more challenges in assembling their bullpen. The team’s relievers have a combined 4.24 ERA that’s 20th in the majors and they have been weakened as the season has gone along. Drew Smith and Brooks Raley have already gone down to season-ending surgeries while Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are each on the IL with shoulder injuries.

The Mets are 45-45 and just 1.5 games back of a playoff spot. Upgrading the bullpen has reportedly been a target area for them and, as mentioned, they already acquired Maton in an attempt to bolster the group. If Garrett needs to miss any time, it would only increase the amount of work the front office will need to do in patching together the bullpen.

For Garrett personally, it would be a significant blow if he ends up needing to miss any notable stretch of time. He has bounced around the baseball world as he has struggled to establish himself, spending time with the Rangers, Tigers, Nationals, Orioles and with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Earlier this year, his utter dominance seemed to the start of a late-bloomer breakout but then the results tapered off and now he’ll have to see what the MRI machine finds in his elbow.

Maton, 31, signed with the Rays as a free agent in the offseason. The two sides agreed to a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee, in the form of a $6.25MM salary and a $250K buyout on a $7.75MM club option for 2025.

Thus far, that deal hasn’t played out the way the Rays had hoped. Maton has tossed 35 1/3 innings, allowing 4.58 earned runs per nine. He has struck out just 19.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.8% clip. His 49.5% ground ball rate is strong but he’s also allowed six home runs on the year, a rate of 16.2% per fly ball.

That performance is significantly worse than what Maton provided in recent seasons. From 2020 through 2023, with Cleveland and Houston, he tossed 220 innings with a 3.93 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. He was also quite good at avoiding damage, with his average exit velocity being among the best in the league in his career.

The Mets are essentially buying low in this deal, getting a veteran reliever without giving up any prospect talent. Perhaps that will change if the PTBNL turns out to be a player of significance, but they may be effectively buying Maton.

The bullpen has been the biggest issue for the Mets this season. Their relievers have a collective 4.16 ERA, which is in the bottom half of the league. A couple of their better relievers have been lost to season-ending elbow surgeries, with Brooks Raley and Drew Smith both done for the year. Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are also on the injured list due to shoulder issues.

Despite those bullpen struggles, the club has stayed in the playoff race. They are currently 44-45, just 2.5 games back of the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. It was reported last week that the club was going into the deadline with a buyer’s mentality and could focus on bullpen help, with this move fitting into that framing.

Obviously, the Mets will be banking on Maton’s struggles this year being a bit of a blip and he’s already shown some positive signs of a turnaround. After a four-run outing on June 9, he was sitting on an ERA of 6.56. But over the past month, he has only allowed one earned run in 12 innings, striking out 11 opponents while giving out just one walk. Even if he can’t fully maintain that level of dominance, it’s not unreasonable to expect something better than his season-long numbers.

For the Rays, they have been doing some modest selling of late, though nothing that would necessarily tank their chances of competing here in 2024. They flipped starter Aaron Civale to the Brewers, netting a prospect and some cost savings. But that didn’t really downgrade the rotation as they were able to call up Shane Baz to take Civale’s rotation spot. They are 44-46 and 5.5 games back in the playoff race, giving them a chance of climbing back into it.

Now they have been able to shed a bit more money, getting rid of a player that has largely been underperforming on the season, recent hot streak notwithstanding. The Rays are generally quite good at finding or developing relievers and Rodríguez could fill in for Maton, as he has a 2.79 ERA in the majors this year and a 1.09 mark in Triple-A.

Speaking of that money, the Mets will be taking on more than the Rays are saving, thanks to the competitive balance tax. Maton is still owed about $2.74MM on his salary, as well as the $250K buyout. The Rays will scrub that from their books but the Mets are a third-time CBT payor and well over the fourth and final tax threshold. That means they are paying a 110% tax on any additional spending, so will be actually paying around $6MM to get Maton on the club for the final few months of the season.

Under owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have been pretty unafraid of spending money and are once again flexing some financial muscle to upgrade the club. The Mets have been walking a fine line since about this time last year, looking to keep the big league club in contention without significantly harming the pipeline of young talent in the farm system and also trying to avoid adding long-term costs to their ledger. They still spent money in the offseason but limited themselves to short-term deals and this move is essentially a midseason version of that.

The cost is primarily financial but they also could lose Lucchesi. The lefty made one spot start for the big league club this year but has primarily been kept on optional assignment. He has made 15 Triple-A starts this year with a 4.20 earned run average, 17.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.

Lucchesi is a decent depth option but he may have been on the road to getting squeezed off the roster anyway. He is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options next year. The Mets have also had improved rotation depth as the season has gone along. David Peterson and Kodai Senga each started the season on the injured list but Peterson has since returned and Senga recently started a rehab assignment. The Mets have also seen Christian Scott jump up from the minors and take hold of a rotation spot.

The current rotation consists of Scott, Peterson, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea, with Senga on his way back. José Buttó and Adrian Houser are currently in the big league bullpen but either could be considered rotation depth and the club also has Tylor Megill on optional assignment. That’s enough starting depth that the club is reportedly considering trading someone from that group while still trying to compete here in 2024, much like the Rays did with the aforementioned Civale deal.

Whether that comes to fruition or not, Lucchesi was largely buried in that rotation picture. The Mets have bumped him off the roster and will now have five days to see if they can work out a trade. DFA limbo can last for a week, but the waiver process takes 48 hours.

The lefty has some track record as a viable big league starter, as he posted an ERA just over 4.00 with the Padres in 2018 and 2019, logging 130 innings or more in both of those seasons. He then struggled in 2020 and got flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade in January of 2021. He required Tommy John surgery that summer and missed most of the 2021-2022 seasons. He returned to the mound last year and his results were fairly comparable to this year. He was mostly kept on optional assignment and posted a 4.74 ERA in Triple-A.

Perhaps a club in need of some starting depth will take a flier on Lucchesi since he can be optioned for the remainder of this year and can also be retained beyond this season via arbitration. But as mentioned, he will be out of options next year and will have less roster flexibility going forward. If he were to clear waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having more than three years of service time. But since he has less than five years, electing free agency would mean walking away from the rest of his $1.65MM salary. In that instance, he would likely accept an outright assignment and stick with the Mets as non-roster depth.

The Cardinals, Phillies, and Yankees have been linked to Maton’s market this winter, but the reliever will now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his age-31 season.  Maton has seven years of MLB experience, breaking into the big leagues with San Diego in 2017 and then landing in Cleveland and Houston.  Maton had a 4.76 ERA over 215 1/3 innings in the 2017-21 seasons, but a 3.68 ERA in that same span and excellent spin rates and soft-contact numbers indicated that the ceiling was higher on the righty’s performance.

The results began to show over Maton’s last two seasons, both with the Astros.  He delivered a 3.84 ERA in 65 2/3 innings in 2022 and then followed up even more strongly with a 3.00 ERA over 66 frames this past year.  As per Statcast, Maton had the second-best hard-hit ball rate of any qualified pitcher in baseball in 2023, and the spin rates on his curveball and fastball were both in at least the 98th percentile of all pitchers.

Walks have been an issue for Maton, and his above-average but not standout barrel rates indicate that batters can hit for power on the rare occasions when they actually make solid contact on Maton’s offerings.  Still, between his ability to generate soft contact and his above-average strikeout rates, Maton has rather quietly been one of the more effective relievers in baseball over the last two seasons.  This success has also extended into the postseason, as while injuries forced Maton to miss the Astros’ 2022 World Series run, he has a sparking 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career playoff innings.

Given the Rays’ success at helping pitchers achieve higher levels of performance, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Maton at least continue or even improve on his strong numbers from 2022-23.  Maton figures to essentially act as the replacement for Robert Stephenson, a reclamation project-turned-high leverage reliever after joining the Rays last summer.

Stephenson parlayed his spectacular four-month run in Tampa into a three-year, $33MM free agent deal with the Angels.  Jake Diekman also signed with the Mets, Andrew Kittredge was traded to the Cardinals, and Jalen Beeks and Josh Fleming were both let go at the start of free agency, leaving the Rays with some holes to fill in the relief corps.  Pete Fairbanks figures to be the team’s primary closer again, and though the Rays are traditionally pretty flexible with their bullpen roles, Maton will likely stick to set-up duty since he has only one career save.

According to Roster Resource, Tampa Bay has a projected $93.3MM payroll, which would already be the highest payroll in Rays franchise history even before Maton’s deal is added to the tally.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander said in October that the club was open to spending at a (comparatively) higher level to help keep their core in place and to make a deeper playoff run, though the Rays did move Tyler Glasnow and his $25MM salary to the Dodgers in a trade.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the two sides were nearing a deal (via X). Robert Murray of FanSided reported (on X) the terms of the deal, while Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the specific year-to-year breakdown (X link).

• Phil Maton: Acquired from Cleveland in the 2021 Myles Straw trade, Maton has quietly been very effective over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he has made 135 appearances for the Astros with a 3.42 earned run average. His 26.5% strikeout rate in that time is a few ticks above league average while his 8.8% walk rate is right around par. He’s been excellent at limiting hard contact, as seen on his Statcast page. His 23.5% hard hit rate last year was actually the best in the majors among qualified pitchers, while his average exit velocity was in the top five. In 2022, he was in the top 10 in both those categories as well. He missed the 2022 postseason due to injury but made six scoreless appearances for the Astros in last year’s playoffs. He has received reported interest this offseason from teams like the Phillies, Yankees and Cardinals.
• Ryne Stanek: Another former Astro, Stanek has made 186 appearances over the past three years with a 2.90 ERA. He has struck out 27% of batters faced but also given out walks at a 12.2% clip. That strikeout rate fell to 23.9% in 2023, but he also cut his walk rate to 9.9%, a career low for him. He has reportedly received interest from the Cubs, Red Sox and Mets this winter.
• Ryan Brasier: The 2023 season was inconsistent for Brasier, a reflection of his career overall. After a stint in Japan, he returned to North America with the Red Sox in 2018, posting a 1.60 ERA. From there, his season-by-season ERA went to 4.85, 3.96, 1.50, 5.78 and then 3.02 in the most recent campaign. That 2023 ERA involved a 7.29 mark with the Red Sox and then a tiny 0.70 figure with the Dodgers. When combining his time with both of those clubs last year, his peripherals ended up pretty close to his career numbers. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and gave out walks to 8% of them last year, near his career rates of 24.1% and 7.4%. Since he finished the year on such a strong note, he has received a fair amount of interest this winter, with clubs like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Orioles, Rangers and Yankees connected to him at various points.
• Jesse Chavez: Though he’s now 40 years old, Chavez doesn’t seem to be slowing down. He made 36 appearances for Atlanta last year with a 1.56 ERA. He surely had a bit of help from the baseball gods there, with a .273 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate, but the peripherals were still strong. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, walked 8.3% and kept 51.7% of balls in play on the ground. His 3.05 FIP and 3.35 SIERA were much higher than his ERA but still represent solid work. He missed about three months of last season after being hit in the leg by a comebacker but was back on the mound before the end of the year.
• Liam Hendriks: If Hendriks were healthy right now, he would be on the top of this list. He cemented himself as one of the best closers in baseball a few years ago and racked up 115 saves over the past five seasons. He has a 2.32 ERA since the start of 2019, having struck out 38.3% of batters faced while walking just 5.1% of them. Unfortunately, 2023 was an incredibly challenging year for the right-hander, as he first had to undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After winning that battle and returning to the mound, he required Tommy John surgery in early August. Since the rehab for that procedure generally goes beyond one year, it’s questionable whether he will be able to pitch at all in the upcoming campaign, though he has said he’s targeting a return around the trade deadline. He can likely find a two-year deal somewhere, with the signing club understanding that they will have a better shot of getting return on their investment in 2025.

Honorable mentions: Jay Jackson, Brad Boxberger, Shintaro Fujinami, Derek Law, Mark Melancon, Matt Barnes

Junis would be an interesting asset to both the rotation or bullpen, given his experience as a swingman over the last few seasons.  Junis has started 27 of his 79 appearances from 2021-23, though his four starts in 2023 are more correctly described as opener/piggyback duty.  The Giants used Junis and several other pitchers in somewhat haphazard fashion to cover three rotation spots, making for a wide array of opener/bulk pitcher scenarios, bullpen games, and two swingmen working in concert for multi-inning duty.

This type of flexibility might make Junis particularly useful on a Philadelphia team that already has a set starting five (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sanchez).  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently spoke of the difficulties in attracting quality depth options to a club that doesn’t have any openings if everyone is healthy, whereas another club with a less settled rotation can offer a free agent more of an opportunity to earn a starting job.  However, Junis’ history of moving back and forth between pitching roles means that the Phillies could possibly regard him as just an available arm, rather than strictly as a depth starter or a reliever.

After posting a 4.75 ERA over his first 627 1/3 MLB innings from 2017-22, Junis had a 3.87 ERA in 2023, finishing well above the league average in walk rate, strikeout rate, and hard-contact rate.  The latter two statistics are particularly noteworthy, as Junis had usually posted below-average numbers in those departments during his career.  This could suggest that the mostly multi-inning relief role agreed with Junis, as it allowed him to lean harder on his best pitch — a slider that batters hit only .216 against in 2023.

Dylan Covey, Nick Nelson, and the newly-acquired Kolby Allard look like the top depth options in the event of an injury, plus the Phillies could also consider using Matt Strahm as a starter again.  If signed, Junis could simply push everyone down a step on the depth chart, with Allard, Covey, and Nelson competing for perhaps just one big league job.  Covey is also out of minor league options, perhaps giving him some leg up on the competition.

Maton would be a straight-forward addition to the bullpen, and a durable addition at that — since the start of the 2021 season, only eight pitchers have appeared in more games than Maton’s 200 outings.  In a swap that now looks like a steal for the Astros, Houston acquired Maton and Yainer Diaz from Cleveland for Myles Straw at the 2021 trade deadline, and Maton has since delivered a 3.67 ERA over 157 regular-season innings and a minuscule 0.49 ERA over 18 1/3 innings in the postseason.  Maton didn’t participate in the Astros’ World Series run in 2022, however, as a fractured pinkie finger kept him off the playoff roster entirely.

Maton turns 31 in March, and he has found success despite a fastball that averaged only 89mph in 2023.  His above-average strikeout numbers speak to his elite spin rates, and few (if any) pitchers in baseball are better than Maton at limiting hard contact.  Maton’s barrel rates are good but not outstanding, as he is prone to giving up homers on the rare occasions that batters are able to really square up on his pitches.

The Cardinals and Yankees have been linked to Maton’s market this offseason, while the Astros reportedly showed only limited interest in a reunion even before Houston signed Josh Hader.  Junis’ market has been more of a mystery, as the Phillies are the first team known to have any public interest in the right-hander all winter.

Brasier, 36, had a surprisingly excellent second half to the 2023 campaign. The righty had struggled to a 5.78 ERA over 62 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2022. When he began last year with a 7.29 mark over 21 innings, Boston designated him for assignment. The Dodgers brought him in on a minor league deal, selecting him onto the MLB roster in late June.

From then on, Brasier was among the best relievers in the game. He pitched to a microscopic 0.70 ERA through 38 2/3 innings in Los Angeles. He punched out nearly 27% of batters faced, a marked jump over the 18.9% rate he carried in Boston. Brasier also kept the ball on the ground at a robust 51.1% rate and limited his walk percentage to a modest 7% clip as a Dodger.

There’s no question Brasier pitched himself to a major league contract now that he’s back on the open market. It’s possible he could drum up enough interest to land a two-year deal, unexpected as that seemed a few months ago. The Cardinals, Orioles, Cubs and incumbent Dodgers were linked to Brasier a few weeks back. The Rangers and Angels were also tied to him at that point, although they’ve since made notable additions to their bullpens — David Robertson to Texas, Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore to the Halos.

Maton, who turns 31 in March, has been a solid middle innings pitcher for the Astros. Acquired at the 2021 deadline for center fielder Myles Straw, Maton worked to a 3.67 ERA over two and a half seasons in Houston. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career. The right-hander allowed an even three earned runs per nine through 66 frames. He fanned 27% of opponents behind an excellent 15.4% swinging strike percentage.

As with Brasier, Maton has a solid case for a two-year contract. He’s not a prototypical late-innings power arm. Maton’s fastball sat at just 89 MPH on average. Yet he hasn’t had any issues missing bats thanks to an excellent breaking ball. Maton uses a curveball as his primary offering. Opponents hit only .169 against the pitch last year. St. Louis has also shown interest in the Illinois native this offseason.

“We’ve been focused on the (bullpen) anyway, this doesn’t intensify it,” general manager Dana Brown tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.” Brown made similar comments to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, telling him that the Astros have some in-house relief options “that we really feel good about,” though the GM also conceded that he’s still in the market to bring in an additional bullpen arm from outside the organization.

The free agent market for relievers has dried up over the past couple months. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, there have been 34 relief pitchers signed to Major League contracts this winter. None have signed with Houston. Brown acknowledged to Rome that he’d had talks with the representatives for all of Neris, Maton and Stanek but wouldn’t specify much beyond the fact that he’s “more in the ballpark” with one of Neris/Maton than the other. Rome reported last week that the Astros haven’t pursued Maton aggressively, and he doubled down on that in today’s report.

While many of the top relievers are already off the board, there are still plenty of experienced names from which to choose if Houston is intent on adding a free agent. The ’Stros almost certainly aren’t going to spend at the necessary levels to add top-tier names like Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson, but more affordable options still on the market include Ryan Brasier, John Brebbia, Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino and Wandy Peralta — to name just a few.

“If we can go get one more [reliever] and use some of the candidates in-house, we feel like we’ll be good,” Brown replied when asked by McTaggart about adding another bullpen arm.

One of the primary questions for the ’Stros will be one of finances. To this point, the only free agent they’ve signed to a big league deal this winter is backup catcher Victor Caratini. That signing placed Houston within $1MM of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t publicly declared any mandate to remain shy of that barrier, but the Astros’ lack of activity this winter, coupled with trade rumblings regarding some of their more prominent but expensive players (e.g. Framber Valdez) have combined to fuel speculation about a desire to avoid paying the tax. Houston has crossed the tax threshold only once under Crane’s ownership.

Maton, 31 in March, enjoyed something of a breakout season in Houston during the 2023 campaign with a 3.00 ERA and 3.74 FIP in 66 innings of work. Maton struck out a solid 27% of batters faced while walking 9.1% and generating grounders at a 42.9% clip. Solid as that season was, however, Maton lacks the long-term track record in high-leverage situations of other relief arms on the market. Dating back to the 2020 season, Maton has pitched to a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 223 appearances, painting him as more of a quality middle relief option than a player who can be relied upon in the late innings.

Despite the relatively short track record of late inning success, the revelation that the Astros may not be interested in retaining Maton is something of a surprise. After all, a report last month indicated the sides had been in contact, and Houston’s publicly-acknowledged payroll limitations could price them out of the market for players like Stephenson, who MLBTR predicted would land a four-year $36MM deal this winter or even fellow righty Hector Neris, who dominated to a 1.71 ERA in 71 appearances with the Astros last season and has recently seen his market begin to pick up.

With Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu forming a solid duo at the back of Houston’s bullpen, re-signing Maton to cover the middle innings would be a way to help bolster the club’s depth without breaking the bank. If the Astros do prove to be uninterested in bringing back Maton, the likes of David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Matt Moore could be other relatively cost-effective options at the club’s disposal.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

• As the Padres look to rebuild their lineup after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx last month, they’ve investigated a variety of options to complement right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. on the outfield grass next year. One such option, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, was center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Lin adds that while San Diego was interested in the veteran center fielder’s services prior to him signing with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, it’s unlikely the club would have been willing to match the $10.5MM guarantee Toronto offered Kiermaier to remain up north. That reluctance on the part of San Diego could be a bad sign for the club’s reported interest in Michael A. Taylor as the 32-year-old sports a similar profile to both Kiermaier and fellow center fielder Harrison Bader, who signed an identical contract to Kiermaier with the Mets shortly after the new year. Should Taylor prove to be out of the club’s price range, the team could look to the trade market in its search for a center fielder or explore lower-tier options like Adam Duvall or Aaron Hicks.
• The Dodgers have built a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, ranging from their previous work with Alex Wood in the mid-2010s to their recent success in turning Evan Phillips into a quality closer since he joined the organization in 2021. As discussed by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, the club’s strong pitching infrastructure has been key to luring free agent pitchers such as Tyler Anderson and Noah Syndergaard to the club in recent years. While the system faltered somewhat in 2023 as the team posted middle-of-the-pack numbers from the mound, DiGiovanna suggests that the club’s infrastructure played a role in luring high-octane arms like those of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers this winter. Now that the club has spent more than $1 billion to lock that star-studded trio up long term, they’ll surely look to optimize the performance of those front-of-the-rotation pieces much as they did reclamation projects in previous seasons.

Along with that trio, the Dodgers, Angels, Cubs and Orioles have been linked to Stephenson at various points this offseason. Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM contract, likely taking them out of a top-of-the-market reliever. The remainder of those clubs could still be involved, although the Angels have taken a lower-cost volume approach to build their middle relief corps.

The bullpen is the biggest question for Texas and Houston, the top two teams in the AL West. Those clubs’ respective baseball operations leaders, Chris Young and Dana Brown, have indicated they’re working with lesser financial flexibility than they’ve had in prior offseasons. Texas finalized a $4.5MM contract with former Brave Kirby Yates this evening. He joins José Leclerc and Josh Sborz as high-leverage righties, although the bullpen still seems the biggest question for the defending World Series winners.

Houston has Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Kendall Graveman as leverage options. Middle relief depth is more of a concern, as each of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. A more affordable middle innings pickup may be a better fit, particularly with the Astros right up against the luxury tax line. To that end, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 tweeted this afternoon the Astros remain in touch with Maton’s camp.

The Yankees already have one of the league’s best relief corps. Building the bullpen has been a consistent strength for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office. Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loáisiga anchor a group that skews heavily toward the right side. While Stephenson could represent something of a luxury buy, the Yankees haven’t shied away from spending on relievers and are clearly in an aggressive win-now mode.

MLBTR predicted Stephenson to secure a four-year, $36MM deal on the heels of a dominant showing with the Rays. He was behind only Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks in the bullpen class among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents. The 30-year-old has an inconsistent career track record but turned in a 2.35 ERA with an absurd 42.9% strikeout rate in 42 appearances after being traded from the Pirates to Tampa Bay in June.