3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge’s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown.  Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.

That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand.  The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star.  Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.

On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market.  With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.

The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.

The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend.  A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge.  With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.

The Brewers are an interesting entrant into the Turner sweepstakes. They have about $25MM before hitting their luxury tax payroll from 2020, so there’s room for a splashy addition if the Brewers are going to maintain their payroll. That’s a big “if,” however. The Brewers have been largely inactive thus far, however, with their only Major League contract going to infielder Daniel Robertson, who figures to play a reserve role for Milwaukee.

The Brewers have a host of young, promising, but unproven infield contributors who could move around the diamond to accommodate Turner.  Keston Hiura demands a lineup spot, and he’ll probably play the keystone, while Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia are their other likely starters. Arcia has had more than enough time to establish himself, and outside of some postseason and big-game heroics, he hasn’t done enough to guarantee his starting spot. A career slash line of .244/.295/.366, with a roughly-average 20.1 percent strikeout rate, and below-average 6.6 percent walk rate definitely leaves room for improvement. Turner’s 130 wRC+, for instance, would give the Brewers’ lineup quite the boost from Arcia’s 71 wRC+ career mark.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

AUG. 30, 9:48PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Clevinger, Heyman tweets, but it isn’t known if Toronto is the “mystery team.”

8:07PM: Speculation continues to swirl about a possible Mike Clevinger trade, with multiple reports surfacing earlier tonight that the Padres had seemingly moved into the driver’s seat for the Indians righty.  The most recent word, however, is that other teams may have pulled ahead of San Diego, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links) reports that the Tribe “have requested players’ physicals from at least two teams” but haven’t asked the Padres to submit such information. 

A mystery team has made a better offer for Clevinger than the Padres, Nightengale writes.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) reported earlier tonight that the Braves were still in the Clevinger sweepstakes even though the Padres were the “frontrunners” at the time, and two rival executives told Feinsand that Atlanta could very well be the team “making an aggressive play” to now top San Diego’s offer.  Top outfield prospect Drew Waters was reportedly part of the Indians’ trade ask from the Braves, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

The Padres don’t seem to be willing to move either Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), which could be a roadblock in a potential Clevinger trade.  Also from Heyman, the Yankees don’t appear to be the mystery team in the Clevinger hunt, as there is “no belief anything’s close” between New York and Cleveland.

The White Sox and Dodgers were also rumored to be interested in Clevinger earlier today, and with this much buzz around the right-hander, one wonders how close Cleveland might get to someone meeting its reportedly “ridiculous” asking price in any Clevinger trade.

Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins.  The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago.  Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record).  With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.

The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest.  While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.

The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019.  Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season.  Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.

Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu.  Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM.  Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.

The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers’ contract for weeks.  Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips.  The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform.  Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.

We’ll track the chatter here …

• The Cole sweepstakes is closing in on an ending, reports Heyman, who adds it would take “a major upset” for him to sign with someone other than the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers.

Earlier Reports

• There is “serious and intense” bidding going on for Cole, who looks more and more likely to reach an agreement at the Winter Meetings, Heyman tweets. It’s “likely” the Astros and the Giants are the mystery clubs in the Cole derby, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, though the sources he has spoken with have cast on doubt on the hurler ending up with either team. That seemingly leaves the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers to fight it out for Cole.
• The Astros may be one of the mystery teams, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who writes that they’re considering making a late charge to re-sign Cole. He was, of course, an enormously important part of the Astros’ pitching staff from 2018-19, and owner Jim Crane said last month the team would at least make an effort to keep him. Keeping Cole would likely at least push the Astros over the second level of the luxury tax ($228MM), as Sherman notes, but the reigning AL champions do have some holes in their rotation with him and Wade Miley as free agents. Perhaps a desire to keep Cole, AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke together atop the Astros’ staff will drown out any tax concerns for Crane.
• Agent Scott Boras confirmed recent reports that indicate a deal could come together quickly. He told reporters gathered for his annual media scrum that a decision may come “in the short term,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter links). Boras also says there are two mystery teams involved in Cole’s market, though it’s not evident just what constitutes a mystery team from his perspective.
• Cole’s major pursuers are known (Angels, Yankees, Dodgers), along with a few lurkers (Rangers, Phillies). But there’s also a mystery team involved, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman himself casts doubt upon the legitimacy of this unidentified organization, noting that it is difficult to envision a new entrant to the market vaulting past the existing bidders. Indeed, it is quite difficult to peg a serious bidder among the remaining teams around the league. There are certainly other contenders that would love to add Cole, but in every case there’s reason to question the plausibility. That said, there have been surprises in the past and nothing can be ruled out entirely until there’s a team announcement on a signing.
• Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (via Twitter) that he has been given reason to believe that the Giants would represent “a desirable destination” from Cole’s perspective. But he says he is not aware whether the team is involved and cautions that he has no reason to believe the San Francisco organization is a serious possible landing spot for the right-hander.

THURSDAY: The Mets have interest in Giants second baseman Joe Panik, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports.  Panik was designated for assignment Tuesday and placed on release waivers yesterday, and he’ll officially enter into free agency at noon CT on Friday if he isn’t claimed by another team in the interim.

The Mets’ interest may hinge on whether or not Panik is actually on the open market.  If Panik were to sign as a free agent, New York would only be responsible for paying him a prorated MLB minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $164K) and the Giants would have to cover the $956K still owed to Panik for the remainder of the one-year, $3.8MM contract he signed last offseason.  If the Mets were to just claim Panik off waivers, they’d have to pay him the entire $1.12MM in remaining salary themselves.

As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are quite close to the luxury tax threshold of $206MM, as Roster Resource estimates New York’s luxury tax number at just under $203.38MM, counting the newly-signed Brad Brach’s minimum salary.  Since the team is loath to make any tax payments and player movement is more difficult now that the trade deadline has passed, the Mets are targeting players like Panik or Brach, who can potentially contribute while their former teams foot the bulk of the bill.  MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that at least one other team besides the Mets has interest in Panik, though it isn’t known if this mystery team is willing to make a claim for Panik, or if they are also waiting for Panik to hit free agency.

Panik would provide New York with a short-term replacement for Robinson Cano at second base while Cano is on the injured list, though it’s a fair question to wonder how much Panik can produce in the wake of his recent performance.  Aside from an All-Star season in 2015, Panik has been a below-average hitter for the rest of his career, including hitting only .245/.308/.325 over 780 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 campaign.  As maligned as Cano’s 2019 season has been, Panik has actually been worse — Cano’s 0.4 fWAR is superior to Panik’s sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR.

Still, at a minimum price, there’s little harm for the Mets in taking a flier on Panik if nothing else than an extra body in their infield mix.  Panik would also add another left-handed bat to a largely right-handed Mets lineup, and his presence at second base would allow Jeff McNeil to remain largely in the outfield.

Cincinnati offered Pujols a ten-year, $225MM offer, which fell just short of the ten-year, $240MM contract Pujols ultimately accepted from the Angels.  The Marlins actually offered more money than either the Angels or Reds, though Pujols turned down Miami’s ten-year, $275MM offer out of concerns that the contract didn’t contain a no-trade clause, and as Nightengale puts it, “Pujols [was] fearful of the Marlins being the Marlins.”

Walt Jocketty was the Reds’ general manager at the time, and had a long relationship with Pujols due to Jocketty’s time as the Cardinals’ GM from 1994 to 2007.  “We thought we were going to get him,” Jockey told Nightengale.  “We thought he would certainly give our organization a lift with his presence, on and off the field.”

After suffering through nine consecutive losing seasons from 2001-2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 but were then unceremoniously swept out of the NLDS by the Phillies (a series that saw the Reds become just the second team to be no-hit in a postseason game, after Roy Halladay shut them down in Game One).  That taste of the postseason gave way to a disappointing 79-83 record in 2011, which led to an aggressive offseason for Jocketty’s front office.  Cincinnati added Mat Latos and Sean Marshall that winter, and indeed went on to regain the NL Central crown in 2012 and then reached the playoffs again as a wild card team in 2013.

Needless to say, adding Pujols would have been by far the biggest possible transaction for the Reds, and the signing would’ve had an incredible ripple effect on recent baseball history.  The player who would’ve been most notably impacted, of course, is Joey Votto.  Aside from six games as a left fielder in his rookie year, Votto has never played anywhere besides first base and (in interleague games) DH in the majors, and a position change would’ve seemingly been unlikely.  While Pujols had played a handful of games at third base for St. Louis in 2011, that marked his first action at the hot corner since 2002, so he wasn’t going to be moved away from first base.

The most plausible scenario of a Pujols signing is simply that Votto would have become an enormous trade chip for the Reds.  Votto had already established himself as a star, and since he wouldn’t have become a free agent until after the 2013 season, the Reds could have netted a hefty return for his services.

As things turned out, the Reds ended up spending their exact planned investment on Pujols into a new extension for Votto, inking him to a ten-year, $225MM deal covering the 2014-2023 seasons (after Votto’s original three-year deal with Cincinnati was up).  This wasn’t the only money the Reds splashed around that spring, as they also extended Brandon Phillips on a six-year, $72.5MM contract.

It’s hard to argue that keeping Votto over Pujols was a bad move for Cincinnati, as Votto has decidedly outhit Pujols over the last nine seasons.  There’s even some question as to whether Pujols could have even remained on the field if he had stayed in the National League, as the slugger said his decision to join the Angels “worked out perfect for me….With all of the injuries and everything that happened to me, it was the best-case scenario for me playing in the American League with a DH. It hasn’t been the best years of my career, but I’m still producing.”

Still, it’s worth at least guessing at how a Pujols-in-Cincinnati scenario could have developed.  For one, the Reds would’ve had Pujols off their books following the 2021 season, whereas they’re still committed to Votto through 2023 (and Votto’s power numbers have dropped precipitously over the last two seasons).  In terms of shorter-term results, who knows if the combination of Pujols and whatever pieces the Reds could have obtained in a hypothetical Votto trade could have put the Reds over the top in 2012 or 2013, though Pujols missed a big chunk of the 2013 season once his foot problems began to worsen.

Of course, who knows — maybe the Pujols-led Reds would’ve lost the 2012 or 2013 World Series to whichever team Votto ended up joining.  His availability that winter creates a whole new set of alternate realities, as one can not only look back at the 2011-12 free agent market for teams in need of first basemen, but it’s quite possible that teams without a defined need at first might have changed their plans if Votto was on the table (in the same way that the Reds weren’t seen a suitor at all for Pujols).

Pujols signed with the Angels in early December, so if he signs with the Reds in this fantasy scenario, that gives Cincinnati much of the offseason to market their younger first baseman.  Maybe it’s Votto who ends up in an Angels uniform after the Halos missed out on their top free agent choice.  The 2011-12 offseason saw the Marlins splurge on Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell in free agency, so maybe they could’ve decided to augment those free agents with a first baseman in a Votto trade?  If Votto is still a Red in late January 2012 when Victor Martinez tears his ACL, would the Tigers have spoken to the Reds about Votto rather than sign Prince Fielder?  The possibilities are endless.

Under these circumstances, it’s reasonably notable to learn that “at least 8 teams are still checking in on Harper,” according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). While Heyman suggests that some of those clubs do not have much interest in a long-term arrangement, it stands to reason that Harper and agent Scott Boras would welcome any bidders to help boost their bargaining power.

Despite a limited cast of publicly known suitors, it has always seemed logical that additional teams would look into a Harper deal. With at least one mystery team chasing Machado, we’ve already seen that concept introduced, but it hasn’t been as evident in Harper’s case.

So, what teams might be in the picture that weren’t previously known? That’s hard to say. The Padres have entered the mix, joining the Phillies, White Sox, and Nationals as known suitors. Beyond that, though, there’s no real indication. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets, in fact, that he has had no success at identifying dark horse participants in the Harper derby.

You’re free to speculate in the comments, of course, but the fact is that any number of organizations could at least be kicking around the edges of Harper’s market. With as many as four mystery clubs evidently involved to some degree, it’s all but impossible to assess the lay of the land — let alone to foresee just how Harper’s time on the open market will ultimately draw to a close.

It seems safe to eliminate the league’s perennial lowest spenders. While the Rays have an atypical amount of flexibility even after signing Charlie Morton, it’s impossible to imagine a team with this payroll history sustaining even a $25MM annual salary — let alone a salary of $30MM or more. Similarly, the Athletics figure to be priced out of the Machado market, as do the Pirates and the Marlins (the latter of which, once again, is rebuilding anyway). The Reds are already projected to set a new franchise-record payroll in 2019, and adding Machado when they already have strong infield options isn’t all that plausible.

Great as Machado is, there are also some clubs who simply don’t have space in their infield for him. The Astros could afford to add Machado to their ranks, for instance, but Houston wouldn’t displace any of Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve to accommodate Machado. The Nationals have Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and newly signed Brian Dozier comprising their non-first-base infield slots. I wouldn’t characterize the group of Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo as quite as strong an infield mix, but it’s fair to say that the Braves probably don’t have space for yet another left-side infielder, barring a trade. Machado would also take Atlanta’s payroll to record heights.

Looking further, it’s unlikely that a team in the early stages of a pure rebuild is going to sign Machado the type of contract he’s seeking. The Royals are trying to pare back payroll, and the Tigers have yet to signal that they’re ready to emerge from their own restructuring. The Orioles aren’t going to bring him back into the mix on the heels of selling off the vast majority of their appealing veteran assets last summer. If it turns out that the Mariners wanted to clear money for Machado and/or Bryce Harper all along this winter, well then kudos to Jerry Dipoto on the most entertaining offseason in MLB history. But, since we’re trying to be rational, it seems like a lock that Machado doesn’t align with Seattle’s “re-imagining” movement.

Several mid-market teams are said to be facing payroll constraints that’ll probably keep them out of the Machado market. The Indians have been trying to shed payroll for much of the winter, and the Diamondbacks are currently being weighed down by huge commitments to Zack Greinke and Yasmany Tomas, the latter of whom is no longer even on the roster. The Rockies’ projected payroll already checks in north of $150MM, making a deal tough to envision. And if they’re going to give this type of annual salary to anyone, they’d probably prefer to offer it to Nolan Arenado, anyhow.

There are also several teams who typically spend heavily but are again refraining from doing so. The Dodgers don’t really have a need on the left side of the infield, but they could conceivably move Justin Turner or perhaps even Corey Seager to second base if it meant opening the hot corner for a player of Machado’s caliber, but there have at least been some reports that L.A. is vying to stay below the luxury tax line, and they’ve not spent like a big-market club to date. The Cubs could bid farewell to Addison Russell in some capacity and install Machado at shortstop, but persistent reports out of Chicago suggest their budget isn’t even flexible enough to bolster the relief corps. The Giants seem likelier to rebuild than to add a free agent of this magnitude, and the Rangers have been zeroed in on smaller-scale additions as they embark on their own soft reset. The Blue Jays are no strangers to large payrolls ($160MM+ in each of the past two seasons) but have made only marginal additions as they face the reality of a top-heavy division and the disbanding of the core that recently carried them to the ALCS.

The Red Sox arguably don’t have a dire need for Machado, though they could likely find a way to fit him into the mix. However, they’re just a few million shy of the top luxury bracket, and some reports have implied that an unwillingness to top that threshold is preventing them from even adding a reliever to the ’pen. They’re picking an odd time to draw a line in the sand, but Machado never seemed all that likely a target anyhow. Their chief rival, the Yankees, made (and very arguably still makes) sense on paper, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll outbid the field to further muddle an already crowded infield picture.

Beyond this grouping, of course, we know that both the White Sox and Phillies are legitimate Machado suitors who needn’t be explored as we try to pin down any potential mystery clubs. All of that said, there are still six clubs that strike me as reasonable guesses when trying to pin down potential Machado mystery clubs. Here’s a look at the remaining teams, and how/why they could conceivably add Machado to the mix (listed alphabetically):

• Angels: The Halos have larger priorities — namely, trying to extend Mike Trout — but it wouldn’t be that hard to fit Machado into the mix. Zack Cozart could be slotted in at second base to make room for Machado at third base. Recent comments from GM Billy Eppler have suggested that the Angels’ spending is likely near its max following the addition of Cody Allen, but they only have Trout under control for another two seasons. There’s every reason to try to maximize the chance of winning immediately, and the Albert Pujols albatross will be off the books after the 2021 season. If the Halos somehow find a way to extend Trout, they’d only be on the hook for all three mega-salaries for one season (2021).
• Brewers: Milwaukee is already in record payroll territory, but Ryan Braun is a free agent after the 2020 season and they’ve watched the division-rival Cubs largely sit this offseason out. With a clear infield need, the Brewers could theoretically add Machado, slide Travis Shaw over to second base and boast an exceptionally deep lineup. Milwaukee has just $48MM in guaranteed money on the 2020 payroll and $35.5MM in 2021. There’s likely some bad blood after October’s Jesus Aguilar incident — Christian Yelich made his feelings toward Machado known after that game — but presumably the hatchet could be buried if Machado were suddenly helping the Brewers win an extra five-plus games per year for the foreseeable future.
• Cardinals: President of baseball ops John Mozeliak certainly didn’t sound like someone who was planning on a big free-agent splash over the weekend, but the Cards were prioritizing corner-infield bats earlier this winter prior to acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and could still fit Machado into the fold. Doing so would likely mean sliding either Paul DeJong or Matt Carpenter to second base for a season — the latter of which is probably a particularly unpalatable defensive alignment. But the St. Louis lineup would be exceptionally deep. As mentioned above with regard to the Rockies and Arenado, perhaps the Cardinals would simply prefer to give Goldschmidt a $30MM+ annual salary on an extension if they have the resources available, but Machado is a half decade younger.
• Mets: The Mets’ infield is overcrowded as is — so much so that Jeff McNeil is likely to play in the outfield next season — so they’d have to make a move in order to fit Machado into the mix. But new GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been vocal about his win-now attitude, and shipping Todd Frazier off in order to open regular time for Machado at the hot corner isn’t outlandish. What could be outlandish would be the Wilpon family green-lighting a payroll north of $160MM, but even with all the moves they’ve made, it’s not that hard to see an on-paper scenario where Machado fits into the mix.
• Padres: San Diego’s hopeful core is quite young, which presents them with the potential to carry a few notable veteran long-term contracts. Last offseason’s Eric Hosmer deal already looks regrettable, but the Padres did front-load the deal, so their annual commitment to Hosmer drops to $13MM beginning in 2023. The Padres project at a payroll just south of $84MM right now and have about $64MM on the books next season. The Padres haven’t historically been big spenders in the past, but the current ownership group did authorize a $108MM Opening Day payroll back in 2015. The Padres are known to be looking for a third baseman, and Machado would give them a long-term answer.
• Twins: The Twins are the only team in baseball that doesn’t have a single dollar committed to any player in 2020. With a completely blank payroll slate, they’d have little problem fitting a major salary onto the long-term books. Looking at the 2019 roster, the infield appears full at first glance, but Machado is the type of player for whom a team should be willing to shuffle the deck. Miguel Sano could slide over to first base, pushing C.J. Cron to the bench role that Tyler Austin currently occupies. A $4.8MM bench bat would be an overpay for a team like the Twins, and owner Jim Pohlad would need to approve a record payroll by as much as $10MM for the upcoming season. That, however, would be a one-year expenditure before payroll naturally regressed. Meanwhile, the Indians aren’t improving, the Tigers and Royals aren’t threats to contend, and if any club should have an interest in keeping Machado away from the ChiSox, one would imagine it’d be a division rival.

8:03pm: The presence or absence of so-called “mystery teams” — unidentified but active pursuers of a given player — has long been a subplot of the market for Manny Machado this winter. With the Phillies, White Sox, and (to a lesser extent) Yankees known to be involved in the hunt, the question is whether other organizations would quietly help drive the bidding.

Now, on the heels of some suggestive comments from Machado’s father (via Dominican journalist Hector Gomez, on Twitter), there’s clear reporting indicating that is the case. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that not only is there a mystery team chasing Machado, but that it’s presently the high bidder. Andy Martino of SNY.tv adds on Twitter that there are actually two such clubs in the mix.

While this news is certainly vague in one sense, in that it doesn’t indicate what teams are now involved, it certainly is being presented as being firmly rooted in reality. Some may be skeptical, but it has always made sense for certain clubs to prefer to make their pursuit a quiet one. And the truly hard-to-fathom aspect of the market to date has been the lack of more teams publicly chasing one of the game’s best players, who’s hitting the market at just 26 years of age.

Last we checked in on Machado, a few days back, his agent Dan Lozano was forced to publicly comment on reports of a middling offer from the White Sox. Indeed, the level of money that had been suggested — seven years, $175MM — hardly seems to match Machado’s value when considering his established track record, age, and past open-market contracts. In any event, it seems at a minimum that those numbers may not have represented a full picture of the level of the Chicago organization’s interest.

The latest news puts a much better spin on the outlook for Machado. If there are indeed a pair of mystery teams, in addition to the three known to have interest, then that leaves quite a few more landing spots for Lozano to explore — and, presumably, a fair bit more leverage to work with in trying to move Machado’s earning level northward.

• While the White Sox have gone to some unique measures to make Chicago a bit more appealing for Machado — acquiring his brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and signing close friend Jon Jay — SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Machado won’t be wooed by anything other than the largest offer (which goes without saying for the majority of free agents). More interesting from Martino’s report is the possibility of some dark-horse teams in the mix on Machado. While Martino acknowledges that the “mystery team” trope is overplayed and is “often mocked for good reason, we hear reliably that it’s true in this case.”
• The Indians are still dabbling in trade talks, but it doesn’t sound as if the team has much hope of moving Jason Kipnis. According to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, there was an effort to do so previously. But while an improved second half helped the Cleveland cause, the crowded second base market made it hard to find any traction. The 31-year-old has turned in below-average offensive seasons for two years running, but he’s still a useful player and has a significant established ceiling. The recent showing isn’t enough to justify his $14.5MM salary, particularly with another $2.5MM promised as a buyout on a 2020 option, but the Indians surely feel they can make good use of Kipnis in the season to come. For now, he’s penciled in at second base but his ability to play the outfield could give the Indians some added flexibility as they seek a means of improving their lineup.
• While a rumor sprang up this evening that the Braves had a deal with Marwin Gonzalez, that doesn’t seem to have any legs. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports tweets that the Atlanta organization has not made any offers to the free agent, though it has shown interest in him. Presumably, the Braves see Gonzalez as a potential option in the corner outfield for the coming season. His versatility would be an asset, too, as he’d be capable of covering in the infield if a need arose in the near or long term. Of course, it remains unclear whether the Braves will pursue a multi-year deal with Gonzalez or another free agent, or whether they’ll try to wait out the market in hopes of securing a quality player on a short-term deal.

11:25pm: The eight-year offer is worth $250MM, as per Z101Digital’s Hector Gomez (hat tip to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin).

9:58pm: The White Sox have offered an eight-year contract to free agent infielder Manny Machado, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports.  We heard last week that Chicago had formally put an offer on the table for Machado, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, though it isn’t known if this eight-year pact is that same deal, or if the Sox have upped their offer.  That previous deal was “likely closer to $200 million than $300 million” in Nightengale’s words.

The eight-year threshold seemingly represents a new step in the ongoing talks between Machado and the White Sox, as 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine had previously reported that the Sox were only willing to hand out seven-year deals to either Machado or Bryce Harper.  The White Sox now seem to be a bit closer to Machado’s desire for at least a decade-long contract, though if he is “sitting on” Chicago’s offer, as Passan writes, it indicates that Machado is still holding out to see if another team can top the White Sox with a longer and more expensive offer.

There seem to be at least three suitors in play for Machado at this time, as Passan notes that the White Sox and Phillies (who are “still engaged” with Machado) have been told that a mystery team is also interested.  The Yankees have been linked to Machado this winter, though they might not be the third suitor, as recent reports seem to indicate a waning interest in Machado’s services.

If the Yankees are indeed out, and the Phillies have now become the favorites to land Bryce Harper, Machado could find himself down to just two suitors.  It’s anyone’s guess, of course, about who the mystery team could be or what they might be willing to offer (or if the team exists at all, and isn’t just a negotiating tactic by Machado’s camp).  While Passan suggests that Chicago’s willingness to go to eight years could indicate some flexibility to add a ninth or even a tenth year to an offer, the White Sox might not feel such pressure if they perceive that they already have the highest bid.  The White Sox have already sailed well above their financial comfort zone in bidding on Machado — an eight-year deal in the $200MM+ range dwarfs the previous largest deal in franchise history, Jose Abreu’s six-year/$68MM pact.

• Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network has the latest on Darvish. It’s said to be unclear whether the veteran would waive his no-trade protection, though of the teams with known interest only the Indians would need authorization to acquire him. There remains a mystery team in on Darvish, and the Rangers still think they’ll make a deal despite the lack of evident progress thus far.

Yesterday’s Updates

• Cleveland has indeed spoken to Texas about Darvish, as Grant suggested, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
• ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Yankees “aren’t really that involved” in talks for Darvish.
• Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers are “more sold than ever” that they will trade Darvish. The Dodgers and Yankees are the two likeliest landing spots, though a trade isn’t likely to be announced on Sunday. Rangers GM Jon Daniels and other execs met with Darvish last weekend to explain to him the possibility that he’d be traded, Wilson continues. Texas hopes to trade Darvish to a contending club and re-sign him, and while Wilson reports that the right-hander has told the team he hopes to continue his career with them, he also is curious to see what the open market will bear.
• MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan also tweets that the Dodgers and Yankees are both in on Darvish, but he hears there’s a third team in the mix that no one anticipated. (Hooray for the mystery team!) The Cubs aren’t heavily involved in Darvish talks, according to Wilson (Twitter link). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News speculates that the Indians could be interested (Twitter links). Grant also notes that the Astros have expressed interest, though the Rangers feel that would be the toughest deal to complete.

• The Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, the Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
• With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes the Rays, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
• Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
• It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere), he adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agents Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” The Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that the Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
• Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicates that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
• While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
• In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.