Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Garver came to the Mariners on a two-year, $26MM deal over the offseason. The longtime catcher had gradually seen more and more of his time come at DH during his tenure with the Rangers and joined Seattle ticketed for a regular role at DH while occasionally spelling Raleigh behind the plate as well. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Garver half a season into his Mariners tenure, however, as he’s slashed just .172/.291/.353 in 71 games this year. While he’s hit for decent power and walked at an excellent 13.5% clip, the combination of a massive 30.9% strikeout rate and his deflated .214 BABIP have left him below average overall with a wRC+ of just 90. That’s certainly passable production from a catcher, but far more is to be expected from a player who is essentially being paid to be a full-time DH.

The potential injury comes as a particularly frustrating time for the Mariners as Garver had begun to heat up in the month of June. In 91 trips to the plate this month entering play tonight, Garver had slashed a much more palatable .187/.319/.453 with a 122 wRC+. That improved production is generally backed up by solid peripherals, as well; Garver’s strikeout rate, while still elevated, has dipped to a more manageable 28.6% this month, and he’s walked at an enormous 16.5% clip. A BABIP of just .200 suggests that further positive regression could be in store for Garver, though it now seems possible that will have to wait depending on how much his wrist heals in the coming days.

Even in the event that Garver requires only a few days off, it’s possible the Mariners will look to make some sort of short-term roster move. After all, he and Raleigh are the only two catchers on the club’s active roster, meaning the club could be forced into a tough situation if Raleigh were to get hurt while Garver is down. The Mariners have Seby Zavala and Michael Perez as depth catching options at Triple-A, though neither is currently on the club’s 40-man roster.

In more positive Mariners news, a pair of key relievers appear to be making their way towards a return to action. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relayed recently that, according to GM Justin Hollander, right-hander Gregory Santos is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Tuesday. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that lefty Gabe Speier is set to throw a bullpen session that same day.

The impending return of the two hurlers is excellent news for the Mariners. Santos, in particular, figured to handle late-inning duties for the club alongside closer Andres Munoz and veteran set-up man Ryne Stanek after the club swung a trade with the White Sox to acquire him just before the start of Spring Training. Unfortunately, that deal has yet to bear fruit as Santos has been sidelined the entire season to this point after suffering a lat strain in mid-March. He could prove to be an impactful arm for the Mariners in leverage situations once healthy enough to take the mound in the big leagues, however, as shown by his 3.39 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work with Chicago last year.

As for Speier, the lefty has missed the past month with rotator cuff issues but was in the midst of a frustrating 2024 season prior to his injury. In 22 appearances with Seattle this year, the lefty has struggled to a 6.06 ERA in spite of peripheral numbers that remain mostly solid. Speier has struck out a strong 29.3% of batters faced this year but has dealt with some poor fortune on batted balls and sequencing, as demonstrated by an elevated .325 BABIP allowed and an unsustainable strand rate of just 61.3%, far below the typical 70-75% range for the average hurler.

Not all of Speier’s struggles have been self-inflicted, of course; the lefty has allowed free passes at a worrying 13.3% clip this year, a massive change from the 5.1% walk rate he posted with the Mariners last season when he posted a 3.79 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 69 games. The Mariners will surely be hoping that’s the version of Speier they get back once he’s healthy enough to return, which MLB.com suggests is unlikely to be until after the All Star break.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Dodgers signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and what’s next for the teams that missed (0:55)
• Red Sox agreed to terms with Lucas Giolito and then traded Chris Sale to the Braves for Vaughn Grissom (7:50)
• The Royals spreading money around to various players (16:10)
• The Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (20:25)
• Mariners sign Mitch Garver (26:05)
• Reds sign Frankie Montas (28:35)

Check out our past episodes!

• Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves – listen here
• Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
• Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

While Cal Raleigh is still Seattle’s top backstop, Garver gives the Mariners a prominent bat who can act as both a backup catcher and a regular presence at designated hitter.  This was the role Garver filled with aplomb for the Rangers last season, as he hit .270/.370/.500 with 19 homers over 344 plate appearances while mostly acting as a DH to allow All-Star Jonah Heim regular time behind the plate.  Garver was then the exclusive first-choice DH for the Rangers’ postseason run, as he hit .226/.317/.434 with three homers over 60 PA to help Texas capture its first World Series title.

It wasn’t an entirely perfect platform season for Garver, however, as he missed close to two full months early in the season due to a left knee sprain.  This continued a pattern of injuries that has plagued Garver throughout his career, as he has played in only 232 of a possible 546 games since the start of the 2020 season.  These health issues (ranging from forearm surgery, an intercostal strain, and knee, groin, and back problems) have contributed to Garver’s increasingly limited usage at catcher, as the move to a DH role should help him stay on the field with a bit more regularity.

This led to something of a tricky entry into free agency for Garver, as while he was technically the top catcher on the market, it would’ve been risky for a team to rely on him for anything more than a timeshare at the position.  As MLBTR’s Nick Deeds suggested back in October, Garver’s ideal landing spot might be “a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate.”

The Mariners fit the bill perfectly, with Raleigh establishing himself as the No. 1 catcher and a big power source over the last two seasons.  The switch-hitting Raleigh has much better numbers against right-handers than against left-handers, which dovetails nicely with the right-handed hitting Garver’s ability to mash left-handed pitching.

Tom Murphy signed with the Giants last week, though the M’s seemingly prepared for that departure by acquiring catcher Seby Zavala as part of the Eugenio Suarez trade with the Diamondbacks.  If Garver is going to primarily be a DH, the Mariners might still have room for Zavala on the roster to act as more of a traditional backup catcher.  This could avoid some roster maneuverings since Zavala is out of minor league options, so the Mariners would have to designate him for assignment and expose him to the waiver wire if they wanted to send him to the minor leagues.

Seattle was known to be looking for a power bat for its DH spot, and a right-handed hitter in particular to help balance out the lineup.  Such names as Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins were reportedly on the Mariners’ radar, but Garver will now join the roster on a two-year pact.  It’s a little less than the three-year, $39MM that MLBTR projected for Garver, though it’s still a nice payday for a player teams might’ve seen as more of a pure DH than as a regular backstop.

Adding a big bat at any price also helps change the narrative of what has been a distressing offseason for Mariners fans.  The Mariners are set to assume total ownership of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network on January 1, and the related additional costs have reportedly limited the team’s ability to spend on player payroll.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said in early December that the Mariners’ payroll would rise from its estimated $140MM figure from 2023, yet most of the club’s moves prior to the Garver signing were designed to cut costs.  Suarez’s trade removed one big salary from the books, and Seattle then got rid of a lot more money in the five-player trade with the Braves that saw Jarred Kelenic dealt essentially as a manner of unloading the contracts of Marco Gonzales and Evan White.

As per Roster Resource, the Mariners’ projected 2024 payroll now sits at around $128.5MM with Garver’s salary added.  With the $140MM number from 2023 in mind, this still gives the M’s some flexibility to pursue further needs, like an outfielder or infield help.  Dipoto has downplayed the idea of trading from the team’s young pitching depth, yet that might be a more cost-effective way of obtaining position-player help than by signing another free agent.

Signing Garver already represents a departure for Dipoto in one sense, as he doesn’t often make notable splashes in free agency.  Remarkably, Garver is only the first position-player free agent (and only the fourth free agent whatsoever) Dipoto has signed to a multi-year contract during his eight years running Seattle’s front office.  This might imply that Garver could be it for the Mariners this winter as far as relatively notable free agent signings go, or perhaps Dipoto will change tactics and look at other free agents in order to further bolster the lineup.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners and Garver had agreed to a two-year, $24MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Garver played his way to borderline QO candidacy with a huge second half. He finished the season with a .270/.370/.500 line with 19 home runs through 344 plate appearances. He hit at a league average level during the World Series run, finishing postseason play with a .226/.317/.434 slash with a trio of homers in 14 games.

Turning 33 in January, Garver will be capped by his age and injury history in terms of contract length. He’s a lock for a multi-year deal, likely a three-year pact in his first trip to the open market. Gary Sánchez, Tom Murphy and Víctor Caratini are the best catchers beyond him in the class. If Texas lets Garver walk, they’ll likely bring in a veteran backup behind Jonah Heim who pushes Sam Huff to third on the depth chart.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

• Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
• Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
• Shohei Ohtani (Angels)

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

• Teoscar Hernández (Mariners)

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

• Mitch Garver (Rangers)

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

• Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

• J.D. Martinez (Dodgers)

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

• Jorge Soler (Marlins)

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (D-Backs)

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

• Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays)

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

• Josh Bell (Marlins)
• Brandon Belt (Blue Jays)
• Jeimer Candelario (Cubs)
• Michael Conforto (Giants)
• Justin Turner (Red Sox)

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Garver’s had a solid 2023 with the bat for Texas, though his injury history and lack of time behind the plate in 2023 make for an unusual platform season ahead of his first foray into free agency this November. After slashing .270/.370/.500 in 344 trips to the plate during the regular season, Garver has hit even better for the club in the postseason with a .294/.368/.529 line across 38 plate appearances, with two home runs, two doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 15.8%. If the Rangers don’t feel the need to afford him extra rest after his injury scare, Garver figures to factor into the club’s lineup regularly after drawing starts at DH during every game of the ALCS.

More from around the American League…

• Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
• The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.

Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).

To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy’s 47-game season with the Mariners).

Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.

Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.

As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.

That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

• Should the trade deadline be moved back, as has been considered by some? (1:15)
• Mets need to pick a lane with Pete Alonso (9:35)
• Yankees’ rotation is dealing with injuries again (14:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

• How can the Cardinals get in shape this offseason? (20:05)
• Can the Mariners line up on a trade with the Cards? (24:10)
• What will be the biggest needs for the Diamondbacks this winter? (27:00)
• What does Mitch Garver’s free agency look like this winter? (28:30)

Check out our past episodes!

• The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here
• Trade deadline recap – listen here
• The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane – listen here

León, 34, has appeared in each of the past 11 major league seasons, suiting up for the Nationals, Red Sox, Marlins, Guardians and Twins. He is mostly viewed as a glove-first catcher, though he did have one tremendous season at the plate. With the Red Sox in 2016, he hit .310/.369/.476 for a wRC+ of 124. It seems fair to conclude there was some good fortune in there, as he had a .392 batting average on balls in play that season, compared to a career mark that’s now at .271. Even with that one stellar campaign, his career batting line is .210/.278/.314 for a wRC+ of 58. But on the other side of his game, he has racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and is considered a good pitch framer.

León will be taking the spot of Garver, 32, who lands on the shelf. It’s unclear how much time the club expects him to miss with this mild knee sprain, though he’ll now be ineligible to rejoin them for over a week. The slugging backstop has shown tremendous pop in his career, highlighted by a 31-homer campaign in 2019. However, injuries have hampered him significantly since then, going on the IL due to an intercostal strain, groin contusion, back tightness and forearm flexor muscle strain, with the latter issue ultimately requiring surgery. He was off to a hot start here in 2023, hitting a couple of home runs already while slashing .263/.364/.579 for a wRC+ of 160. Unfortunately, he’ll now have to put that on pause, with León stepping in to backup Jonah Heim. Getting back to health will be significant for both the club and Garver personally, as he’s slated to reach free agency at the end of this season.

As for Howard, he was placed on the 15-day IL on Opening Day due to a lat strain. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out of action, though he’s now ineligible to return until late May at the earliest. The 60 days are counted from his initial IL placement, not from today’s transfer. Though he was a highly-touted prospect during his time with the Phillies, he has a 7.09 career ERA through his first 111 2/3 innings. He was pushed way down the club’s depth chart when they remade their rotation this winter, acquiring Jake Odorizzi while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Howard wasn’t going to be the most essential member of the staff, but he’s now the third depth starter on the 60-day IL, alongside Odorizzi and Glenn Otto. The rotation is still in good shape for now, with Martín Pérez and Jon Gray joined by those three offseason signees, but those guys have some notable injury histories of their own, meaning the weakened depth could be an issue down the road.

Boston optioned rookie right-hander Brayan Bello to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding active roster move. The 23-year-old, who’s one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, was promoted last week and made his first two big league starts. Bello surrendered nine runs with seven strikeouts and six walks in eight innings, however, so the club will send him back to the minors for a bit. A 40-man roster vacancy for Sale was created yesterday when catcher Kevin Plawecki landed on the COVID-19 injured list, but Boston will need to make another move in that regard once Plawecki is cleared to return.

Updates on a pair of other notable injury moves:

• The Blue Jays welcomed back catcher Danny Jansen from the 10-day injured list, installing him right into tonight’s starting lineup against the Phillies. The 27-year-old missed a month after fracturing a finger on his left hand, his second notable injury of the season. That and an April oblique strain have limited Jansen to just 19 games thus far, but he’s blasted seven home runs in limited action. In a corresponding active roster move, top prospect Gabriel Moreno was optioned back to Triple-A Buffalo. A consensus top prospect, Moreno was promoted for his MLB debut shortly after Jansen went down. The 22-year-old only collected one extra-base hit (a double) in his first 60 trips to the plate as a big leaguer, though. With Jansen back and the Jays firmly in win-now mode, they’ll turn back to the veteran while giving Moreno regular reps in Triple-A. Across 36 games with the Bisons, Moreno is hitting .324/.380/.404.
• Last night, the Rangers transferred catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. That’s not a surprise, as he’ll miss the rest of the season after undergoing season-ending surgery to repair the injured flexor tendon in his forearm. The move freed a spot on Texas’ 40-man roster, which Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests (on Twitter) is likely to go to reliever Jonathan Hernández. The right-hander hasn’t pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021, but he’s been on a rehab stint at Triple-A Round Rock for the past month and a half. Grant notes that his allotted rehab window wraps up tomorrow, meaning he’ll have to be reinstated from the 60-day IL or shut down from his rehab entirely. The former seems likelier, as manager Chris Woodward suggested Hernández should be back with the big league club soon.

The fact that Garver requires the surgery isn’t shocking, as the issue has been known for some time. He has been playing through the injury, able to hit but not throw. He’s played exclusively as a designated hitter or pinch hitter over the past couple months, with his last appearance behind the dish coming on May 8.

Garver spoke to reporters about the situation a few weeks ago, noting that the surgery was inevitable. The only question was about the timing. Since the estimated recovery time for the surgery is 7-8 months, Garver and the Rangers had to decide on one of two courses of action. In one scenario, Garver would play out the remainder of the season hurt and then get surgery in the offseason. That would mean missing part of the 2023 campaign while recuperating. The second course of action would mean getting surgery sooner, in order to hopefully be fully healthy before next season. It seems they have now decided on the latter option.

This is surely a disappointing turn of events for the Rangers, who acquired Garver from the Twins in the offseason trade that sent Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Twins (who later traded him to the Yankees). Despite the injury, Garver has still been able to hit at an above-average rate, slashing .212/.292/.419 coming into tonight’s game. That amounts to a wRC+ of 103, or 3% above league average, but it’s a far cry from the .256/.358/.517 he put up last year, producing a 137 wRC+. He’ll now miss the final few months of the season while rehabbing.

The lack of Garver shouldn’t totally decimate the Rangers’ season, as Garver’s absence has been filled by the breakout season of Jonah Heim. Acquired from the A’s in the trade that sent Elvis Andrus to Oakland, Heim is hitting .257/.312/.480 on the year for a wRC+ of 125. When combined with his defensive contributions, he’s already produced 1.9 fWAR on the year.

Both Garver and Heim are still under team control next year, giving the club a powerful two-headed catching duo once Garver is healthy. Garver hits right-handed and Heim is a switch-hitter, making it possible that both of them get regular playing time in a platoon, with each of them also getting occasional turns as the designated hitter. Garver will be in his final season of control, making him a potential trade candidate in the offseason, with the club then turning the job over to Heim going forward. However, the uncertainty around Garver’s health will be an obstacle to the Rangers finding a deal to their liking.

More from both the Astros and Rangers, as we run down baseball news from the Lone Star State….

• Jeremy Pena is likely to return to Houston’s lineup on Sunday, as the rookie shortstop took batting practice today.  Left thumb discomfort sent Pena to the 10-day injured list on June 15, though an MRI didn’t reveal any damage.  It thankfully looks like only a minor injury for Pena, and he’ll now get to resume his outstanding rookie season.  Making his MLB debut earlier this year, Pena has hit .277/.333/.471 with nine homers over his first 211 plate appearances, though his hot bat had been cooling off in the two weeks prior to his IL stint.
• Lance McCullers Jr. was the pitcher throwing to Pena, with McCullers tossing around 20 pitches during the overall BP session.  McCullers told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that his repertoire included changeups, sinkers, and a slider, and he was throwing as hard as 93mph.  Since suffering a flexor tendon strain during last year’s postseason and then a rehab setback in January, McCullers has been slowly working his way back, and is still likely a month or so away from a minor league rehab assignment.
• After today’s 3-2 win over the Nationals, the Rangers optioned left-hander Taylor Hearn and infielder Ezequiel Duran to Triple-A.  Corresponding moves will be made prior to tomorrow’s game.  Hearn was the bulk pitcher in today’s bullpen game, allowing only two walks over four scoreless innings, though it was a rare quality outing an otherwise rough season for the southpaw.  Even with today’s game on his ledger, Hearn still has a 5.86 ERA over 63 innings, starting 13 of his 14 games.  Texas called Duran up to the majors for his MLB debut earlier this month, and the top-100 prospect hit .258/.281/.435 with two home runs over 64 PA.  Duran had been seeing most of the playing time at third base, but with Josh Smith now back from the IL, Duran will continue his development with an everyday role at Triple-A rather than part-time duty in the Show.
• Mitch Garver went 0-for-2 with a walk against the Nats today, dropping the veteran’s slash line to .201/.288/.383 for the season, over 170 PA.  Garver has been trying to play through a damaged flexor tendon in his throwing forearm, but he told reporters (including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News) that he would make a decision by the All-Star break whether or not to undergo season-ending surgery.  With a 7-8 month recovery time required for the surgery, Garver would miss little to none of Spring Training by getting the procedure relatively soon.  It is possible Garver could instead try to rehab the forearm problem without surgery, but Grant writes “that route is more uncertain” in terms of a recovery timeline or what it might mean for Garver’s 2023 season.  Since suffering the flexor injury, Garver hasn’t been able to play catcher, so the Rangers have been limiting him to DH or pinch-hitting duty.

Viloria is headed to the big leagues for the first time as a member of the Texas organization. He played in 67 games with the Royals between 2018-20, hitting .215/.267/.287. Kansas City outrighted him off the 40-man roster last April, and he elected free agency at the end of the season after spending the entire year in the upper minors. Viloria latched on with the Rangers on a non-roster pact just before the lockout.

The lefty-hitting backstop has spent the entire season with Round Rock. He’s posted an eye-opening .344/.471/.512 line through 155 plate appearances to earn his way back to the majors. Those results have been propped up by an unsustainable .444 batting average on balls in play, but he’s also walked at a massive 17.4% clip. Viloria’s still just 25 years old and was a fairly well-regarded prospect during his time in the Royals’ system, so perhaps he’ll be able to carry some of that form over against big league arms. He still has a minor league option year remaining, so the Rangers can freely move him between Arlington and Round Rock now that he’s on the 40-man roster.

Huff heads back to Triple-A, where he’s posted a .260/.349/.575 line in 19 games. He’s hit .282/.320/.352 in 27 MLB contests this year, but he’s collected only three extra-base hits and is striking out at a 28% clip. Huff has run into a rough patch since the calendar flipped to June, while first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has caught fire. Between Jonah Heim at catcher, Lowe at first base and Garver’s return at designated hitter, there wasn’t going to be room in the lineup for Huff most days.

Smith missed nearly three weeks battling a shoulder sprain. The rookie steps in at third base tonight, where he’s likely to split time with fellow first-year player (and former Yankees prospect) Ezequiel Durán. Garver and starter Glenn Otto both went on the COVID list two weeks ago; Garver steps back into the MLB lineup, while Otto is headed to Round Rock for what figures to be a brief rehab stint before being activated.

White, meanwhile, suffered a fracture in his right wrist last week. He underwent surgery and is unlikely to begin any baseball activities before the start of August, meaning he’ll miss at least a couple months.

The Rangers now have three players on the COVID list, as Brett Martin was sent there a few days ago. The timing is particularly unfortunate for the Rangers, as Otto was scheduled to start tonight’s contest. Instead, Matt Bush will be taking the ball in what will be an emergency bullpen game.

It’s unclear if the players have tested positive or instead have landed on the shelf due to a close contact or the presence of symptoms. Without a positive test, there’s no minimum stay on the IL. But in the case of a positive test, MLB’s 2022 health regulations stipulate a 10-day absence, though a pair of negative PCR tests and approval from a trio of medical professionals (team doctor, league-appointed doctor, MLBPA-appointed doctor) can override that 10-day requirement. The club is starting a stretch of playing ten days in a row, meaning they may need to think about Otto’s next turn through the rotation as well.

The fact that Miller and Tinoco have been announced as “replacement players” is significant. Under the 2022 health and safety protocols, commissioner Rob Manfred has sole discretion to decide whether a team’s COVID situation is significant enough to warrant such a designation. It seems that he has done so in this case. That means that Miller and Tinoco can be removed from the team’s 40-man roster at a later date without being subject to waivers.

For Garver, this will be another speed bump in a season that has had a couple of them. After going on the injured list due to a flexor strain, he returned in late May but was acting exclusively as a designated hitter or pinch hitter. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that, due to the injury limited Garver’s throwing ability, the club intended to continue putting his bat in the lineup but didn’t plan on letting him resume catching duties anytime soon, possibly for the entire season. Now on the IL, he won’t even be able to take on that limited role for the time being.