Ogasawara, 27, has posted a 3.28 ERA in 596 innings of work over the past four seasons with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons. While that’s a solid performance, the lefty’s lackluster 13.6% strikeout rate last year raised plenty of eyebrows when he was posted by the Dragons last month. That skepticism about his ability to make such a profile with such few strikeouts work in the majors led Ogasawara to sign a modest deal that guarantees him just $3.5MM, well below the going rate for even back-end starters in free agency. Rizzo expressed confidence in Ogasawara as a starting-caliber option despite those concerns, but stopped short of fully guaranteeing him a rotation spot or even an active roster spot to open the season in his discussion of the club’s rotation plans.

“We signed [Ogasawara] to be a starting pitcher for us in the big leagues,” Rizzo told reporters, including Zuckerman. “Of course, he’ll have to earn that spot in the rotation. I think there’s going to be great competition for the five spots in the rotation by some good, young, talented players. If he’s not ready for the big leagues, then we could always option him to Triple-A and bring him up sometime during the season. But we anticipate him battling out for a rotation spot, and I think it’s going to be a fun competition to watch.”

That most tracks with Andrew Golden of the Washington Post’s reporting on the state of the club’s rotation. Golden characterizes right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, and right-hander Jake Irvin as the three players locked into Opening Day rotation spots if healthy. That leaves two spots in the rotation for Ogasawara, veteran right-hander Trevor Williams, and young southpaws Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz to compete for, though it’s worth noting that Williams himself indicated earlier this month that he’ll be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation. That would leave just one spot for Ogasawara, Parker, and Herz to compete for. Ogasawara seems likely to be the favorite for that role headed into Spring Training, though all three have options remaining and Golden suggested that he or even Williams could be pushed to a bullpen role if Parker and/or Herz look particularly good coming out of camp.

The club’s approach of adding plenty of depth to the rotation to ease their reliance on up-and-coming youngsters without blocking them meshes will with the club’s overall philosophy for this winter. As Nausbaum notes, Rizzo told reporters that given “where [the club is] at right now,” the club was cautious about signing free agents with a qualifying offer attached due to the associated loss of draft capital and international bonus pool money. The club’s reluctance to target qualified free agents led the club to bring in a number of short-term reinforcements this winter.

That includes not only their trio of rotation additions but also Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, and Jorge Lopez. All of those veterans come with either one or two seasons of control, preventing them from blocking the young players and prospects that the Nationals have been building around since they first began what has become a lengthy rebuild back in 2021. The club’s fortunes appear to be on the upswing headed into 2025 with that group of intriguing youngsters in the rotation and an outfield that currently projects to feature full seasons from James Wood and Dylan Crews in the corners. Cade Cavalli, Robert Hassell III, and Brady House are among the other noteworthy prospects in the club’s pipeline who have yet to establish themselves in the majors but could arrive at some point this season.

That reluctance to block top prospects and young players seems to have played a significant role in how the club’s offseason has played out to this point. Early in the winter, the Nationals were among the teams most frequently connected to Christian Walker before he ultimately signed with the Astros. Walker, of course, received a Qualifying Offer from the Diamondbacks that may have limited the Nationals’ interest in him and led to them pivoting towards the additions of Lowe and Bell. It’s also possible that the club’s desire to avoid blocking young players contributing to them not signing second baseman Gleyber Torres. Torres made clear shortly after he signed with the Tigers that the Nats were among the teams pursuing him but that they had wanted him to move to third base in order to accommodate 24-year-old Luis Garcia Jr. after he enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2024. When Torres landed elsewhere, the Nationals opted to sign Rosario, who has moved around to a number of positions all throughout his career and should have no trouble playing out of position if needed.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Athletics and Brent Rooker agreeing to a five-year extension (1:40)
• The Dodgers signing Hyeseong Kim and trading Gavin Lux to the Reds (6:40)
• The Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes (14:45)
• Do the Blue Jays have unique challenges in signing free agents to come to another country? (16:30)
• Will Burnes opt out in two years and will the Diamondbacks trade a starter now? (21:05)
• The Yankees acquiring Cody Bellinger from the Cubs and signing Paul Goldschmidt (26:35)
• The Astros signing Christian Walker (34:40)
• The Mets signing Sean Manaea and Griffin Canning (39:15)
• The Red Sox signing Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval (43:35)
• The Phillies acquiring Jesús Luzardo and signing Max Kepler (50:35)
• The Orioles signing Charlie Morton (55:35)
• The Guardians trading Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and signing Carlos Santana (58:30)
• The Rangers trading Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals and signing Joc Pederson (1:01:25)
• The Nationals get Lowe as well as signing Josh Bell, Michael Soroka and Trevor Williams (1:05:30)
• The Tigers signing Gleyber Torres and shuffling their infield around (1:08:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
• Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.

All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.

If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.

Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.

Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.

Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.

Soroka, 27, came into the offseason as one of the more interesting free agents available. He found success as a starting pitcher in his early 20s, back in 2019, but missed most of the 2020 to 2023 seasons due to injuries. In 2024, he struggled badly as a starter but then got moved to a bullpen role and finished the season in very strong fashion. It could have been argued that he earned himself another shot at a rotation job or that he found a role that worked for him and should continue as a reliever, though it seems he will take another shot at being a starter next year.

Prior to his 2019 breakout, Soroka was already a name to watch. He was a first-round pick of Atlanta in 2015 and found himself on top 100 prospect lists as he climbed through the minors. He debuted with five starts in 2018 and then fully cemented himself as a big leaguer in 2019, making 29 starts and logging 174 2/3 innings while allowing 2.68 earned runs per nine. His 20.3% strikeout rate was just below average but his 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate were both notably better than par.

That was Soroka’s age-21 season, so it seemed Atlanta had a rotation building block for years to come. Unfortunately, the baseball gods had a miserable fate in store for Soroka’s next chapter. In his third start of the shortened 2020 season, he had to be helped off the field with a leg injury, later revealed to be a torn right achilles tendon which required surgery. In 2021, he missed some time due to shoulder inflammation and later required another surgery on his achilles. He got back on the mound in 2022 and pitched in the minors, though that season was ended due to elbow soreness. In 2023, he was frequently shuttled between Triple-A and the majors and finished the season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

After those four years in the injury wilderness, Atlanta seemingly didn’t have much faith in Soroka bouncing back. He was flipped to the White Sox in November, part of a five-for-one trade that saw Atlanta flip multiple spare parts for Aaron Bummer in a roster clearout move.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago was aggressively rebuilding and had more bandwidth for being patient with Soroka, hoping for a bounceback. It didn’t materialize at first. Soroka started the season with nine starts but had a 6.39 ERA in those. His 46.9% grounder rate was strong but his matching strikeout and walk rates of 12.4% were both bad.

The last of those starts was on May 12. Soroka was moved to the bullpen at that point, which is when things became very interesting. He tossed 36 innings out of the bullpen in the remainder of the season with a 2.75 ERA. His 13% walk rate was oddly high and his grounder rate was just 26.5% but he managed to punch out 39% of batter’s faced.

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.

Given the amount of success he had in that relief role, it might be tempting to suggest that he should stay there, but there are also counterarguments. For one thing, despite the many twists and turns in his career, Soroka is still young. He is currently 27 and won’t turn 28 until August. He might not want to give up on the possibility of being a starter just yet.

Furthermore, teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.

The Nats should be able to give Soroka a chance to earn a rotation job, at least for a while. They have some intriguing arms but most of them are fairly lacking in experience. The quartet of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz all had decent results in 2024, with each posting an ERA of 4.41 or lower. However, Gore’s 372 2/3 career innings are the most of the bunch. Irvin is at 308 while Parker and Herz just debuted in 2024 and are below 200. Josiah Gray had UCL surgery in July and won’t be a factor until late in the 2025 season, if at all. Cade Cavalli missed all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and it’s unknown what kind of workload he can take on next year.

Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

It’s also theoretically possible that he pitches his way into consideration for a qualifying offer at season’s end, as even mid-rotation or back-end guys like Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez got QOs this year. In that scenario, Soroka could stay with the Nats all year and help them make a contending push while also providing some future value at the end of the year, though that will be a concern for another day.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soroka for a two-year deal worth $14MM. He has settled for a lesser guarantee but on a stronger annual value, with the chance to return to the open market a year from now. For him personally, that could be a lucrative bet, as it’s possible he will have much more earning power at the end of the 2025 season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Nats and Soroka were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that it was a one-year deal worth $9MM.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

The Mets are among the teams with interest, per the report, which adds that the only teams viewing Soroka as a reliever are those that already have largely full rotations. Few clubs can make that claim, though perhaps the Mariners, Rays, Phillies or Astros could view Soroka as a bullpen option (speaking from a purely speculative standpoint).

Those who didn’t closely follow Soroka’s season may not find the notion of him returning to a starting role all that surprising or interesting. He has, after all, worked primarily as a starter throughout his professional career. Prior to a staggeringly unfortunate run of injuries in Atlanta, the former top prospect looked to be emerging as a high-end rotation piece with the Braves. From 2018-19, he pitched 200 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.

Since that time, Soroka has had a pair of Achilles tendon tears and three separate IL stints related to shoulder issues — including a strain that sidelined him for two months this past season. He’s pitched only 125 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. That lack of durability is another reason to consider him for a relief role, but Soroka did toss 87 2/3 innings this past season, creating at least some optimism that maybe he could hold up better than in prior years.

The broader reason for his appeal in the bullpen was simply the manner in which he performed there in 2024, however. Soroka had only three professional relief appearances heading into 2024. He made 16 relief appearances for the South Siders this past season, and the results were eye-popping. As I wrote on our Top 50 Free Agent list back in early November:

Beginning with a four-inning long relief showing at Yankee Stadium, Soroka punched out seven batters. He went on to fan 15 in 9 1/3 frames over his first three relief outings. From May 18 through season’s end, Soroka pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out a gargantuan 39% of his opponents. That includes a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain, but Soroka returned in late September averaging an improved 94.5 mph on his heater and closed out the season with 7 1/3 shutout innings and a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Soroka still didn’t have good command in relief. He issued a walk to 13% of his opponents. That’s going to give plenty of interested teams pause. Still, few relievers can pile up strikeouts at such an overwhelming level over any kind of prolonged sample. Sixty punchouts in 36 innings is tough to overlook.

That said, it’s understandable if teams are dreaming on sustaining some of that production and stretching it out over a larger role. Soroka is still only 27 and won’t turn 28 until next August. He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent — particularly relative to starting pitchers. It’s also been a bull market for starters in the early stages of free agency, with Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas in particular exceeding most expectations with the contracts they signed. Montas posted a 4.84 ERA with an exactly league-average 22.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 150 2/3 innings. He still commanded two years and $34MM with an opt-out. Plus velocity and a late-season strikeout surge notwithstanding, it was a notable contract for a pitcher coming off a decidedly pedestrian season.

Given the strong early market for starters, some clubs might be inclined to put forth a lower-AAV offer to Soroka in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for their starting staff, knowing the bullpen route is there as a fallback option. The Mets are apparently included in that bunch, and Soroka seems to fit the mold of pitcher that president of baseball operations David Stearns has targeted since joining the Mets: a formerly high-profile arm with some recently demonstrated upside who’s (presumably) available on a short-term deal.

September 21: The White Sox announced a series of roster moves this afternoon headlined by the club designating right-hander Chad Kuhl for assignment. Kuhl’s departure from the roster makes room for the return of right-hander Michael Soroka, who Chicago activated from the 15-day injured list and reinstated to the active roster. Right-hander Jordan Leasure was also activated from the IL, but was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte and will not be rejoining the club’s active roster.

Kuhl, 32, signed a minor league deal with the White Sox back in January but did not get the call to the majors until mid-June. He joined the club’s bullpen as a multi-inning relief option and performed fairly well in the role early on, with a 3.69 ERA and 4.08 FIP in 31 2/3 innings of work through the end of July. He moved to a short relief role following the trade deadline, however, and hasn’t acclimated to the new role well with a 7.06 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work despite fairly solid peripheral numbers during that time, including a 4.14 FIP that was only a few points higher than his successful first half of the year and a strong 26.7% strikeout rate.

Overall, the right-hander has pitched to a lackluster 5.06 ERA that’s 18% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ despite a solid 4.11 FIP. Those lackluster results are more or less par for the course relative to Kuhl’s career, as his career 4.98 ERA and 86 ERA+ aren’t too dissimilar from his production in 2024. Where there’s room for optimism, however, is in his peripherals. That aforementioned 4.11 FIP is actually the best Kuhl has posted in a season since his rookie campaign back in 2016 with the Pirates, while this year’s 22.5% strikeout rate and 44.4% groundball rate are both career-bests for the veteran of 8 big league seasons.

It seems as though the biggest culprit for Kuhl’s struggles this year is his inflated .340 BABIP allowed, a stat that perhaps isn’t surprising given that the White Sox are the worst team in the majors by Defensive Runs Saved and second from the bottom by measure of Outs Above Average. Given those solid peripherals and his experience both starting and pitching in relief, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Kuhl enter free agency this offseason as somewhat attractive depth option for pitching-needy clubs, particularly if he’s once again willing to accept a minor league deal. In the meantime, Chicago will have one week to try and pass Kuhl through waivers, though the right-hander would have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency and he’d still be slated to reach free agency this November even if he accepted the outright.

Replacing Kuhl on the roster is Soroka, who was acquired from the Braves last offseason. Soroka’s 72 1/3 innings of work this year are the most he’s pitched in a season since 2019, when he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in NL Cy Young award voting with an excellent 2.68 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 29 starts for Atlanta. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed the right-hander ever since, and his return to action this year left much to be desired as he posted a lackluster 5.23 ERA with a 5.41 FIP across 22 appearances, including nine starts. Soroka’s numbers improved after he was moved out of the rotation, however, as he pitched to a 3.45 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 28 2/3 relief innings thanks to an excellent 36.7% strikeout rate out of the bullpen. Those solid numbers in a relief role were cut short by a shoulder strain just before the All-Star break, but nonetheless offer reason for optimism as the righty heads to free agency for the first time in his career this winter.

That doesn’t sound like it bodes well for Baez’s chances of returning in 2024, as the Tigers have only the faintest hopes of a wild card berth and might just choose to shut Baez down to get him ready for next year.  While injuries have contributed to Baez’s struggles this season, his .184/.221/.294 slash line over 289 plate appearances marks the third straight disastrous year for Baez since coming to Detroit on a six-year, $140MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason.  With $73MM still owed to Baez over the 2025-27 seasons, the contract is already an albatross, and it remains to be seen exactly how much longer the Tigers still stick with Baez as a regular part of their lineup (or whether they could release him altogether).

More from around the AL Central…

• Sonny Gray told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale that the Twins didn’t make much of a push to re-sign him when the veteran righty entered free agency last winter.  “They were very transparent from the get-go, saying, ’Listen, we do not have the resources to give you a contract, as much as we would like to.’  So, I kind of knew that,” Gray said.  “Even though we did come back a couple of times and try to work on some things, I kind of knew early on that it wasn’t [happening].”  The Twins’ lack of certainty over their broadcasting contract led to a payroll reduction last winter and continued budget limitations this year, so it didn’t seem too likely that Minnesota would be able to outbid the several other clubs who had interest in Gray’s services.  Gray ended up signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals, and he has continued to pitch well in St. Louis, if not at the level of his AL Cy Young runner-up performance with the Twins in 2023.  Gray will face his old teammates today when he gets the start for the Cards in today’s game in Minneapolis.
• In other Twins news, Alex Kirilloff started a Triple-A rehab assignment yesterday and Brooks Lee will start a similar assignment today, manager Rocco Baldelli told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters.  However, Baldelli still didn’t have any new news on Carlos Correa, saying the shortstop is just “continually making steady improvement” as he recovers from plantar fasciitis in his right heel.  Correa hasn’t played since July 12, and he received a PRP injection early in his recovery process.
• White Sox GM Chris Getz told reporters (including Mike Clark of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Yoan Moncada and Michael Soroka will start Triple-A rehab assignments on Tuesday.  Moncada played in only 11 games before a left adductor strain sidelined him for the majority of the season, but it looks like he’s on track to get back to the majors at some point in September.  Soroka had a 5.23 ERA over 72 1/3 innings in his first season with the White Sox, and he has missed close to six weeks recovering from a strain in his right shoulder.

Atlanta then shipped Soroka and four other players to Chicago in the Aaron Bummer trade last November, and Soroka’s first season with the Sox has been a struggle, as he has a 5.25 ERA over 72 innings and he lost his rotation job in May.  Soroka’s 3.49 ERA as a reliever is a big step up from his 6.39 ERA as a starter, though this latest shoulder injury could bring another unwelcome wrinkle to his career.  It could also impact Chicago’s trade deadline plans, as an impending free agent like Soroka is an obvious trade candidate, and a healthy multi-inning reliever would appeal to several teams.

More from around the American League as we head into the All-Star break…

• The Royals started their deadline moves with a bang on Saturday, acquiring Hunter Harvey from the Nationals for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and Kansas City’s Competitive Balance Round A pick in this year’s draft.  (Washington used the 39th overall pick on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita.)  “What we came to realize is if you’re going to acquire a quality relief pitcher with years of control, it’s not going to be a comfortable trade to make.  You’re going to have to give up something to get something,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  K.C. was known to be looking for bullpen help, and Harvey brings “great depth” to the relief corps, though Picollo said the team was “happy with” James McArthur’s work as closer.  “The depth was the focus for us and having more options at the back end of the game,” Picollo said.
• Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Lance McCullers Jr. during a pregame radio appearance today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Athletic).  McCullers’ rehab from flexor surgery was halted earlier this week due to some soreness in his right arm, and Brown said “we just have to let time heal and we can’t push him.”  A return by September to work as a reliever is a possibility, Brown said, which is itself notable since McCullers has started 127 of his 130 career big league games.  A variety of injuries have cost McCullers the entirety of both the 2019 and 2023 seasons, and limited him to 265 innings over the 2020-22 campaigns.  The exact nature of McCullers’ latest issue isn’t known, but Brown somewhat ominously said that the righty had gotten “his second opinion” about the setback.
• The Blue Jays were known to be pushing to sign Joc Pederson last winter, before Pederson landed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal worth $12.5MM in guaranteed money.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently spoke with Pederson about his offseason talks with Toronto, and Pederson said he had a FaceTime conversation with GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider that seemed to go well, though negotiations didn’t progress much further.  “They just I guess didn’t want me as bad as some other teams and weren’t able to really put together an offer when it was time for me to make a decision….From the conversations we had on the phone and how interested they were in adding a left-handed bat, their actions didn’t match their words, I guess you could say,” Pederson said.  “They said everything went really well and then didn’t want to offer what other teams did.”  The veteran slugger didn’t have any displeasure with how things worked out, and even left the door open to potentially play for the Jays in the future.  Pederson is having an excellent season as a righty-mashing DH in Arizona, hitting .273/.374/.498 with 13 homers over 277 plate appearances with the D’Backs.

Soroka, 26, was one of five players that the Sox acquired from Atlanta in the November trade that sent Aaron Bummer the other way. Chicago gave Soroka a rotation spot but the results have been quite poor so far. Through nine starts and 43 2/3 innings, he has a 6.39 earned run average, which is the worst mark among qualified pitchers in the majors this year.

That performance is backed up by uninspiring peripherals. His 46.9% ground ball is good but he has equal strikeout and walk totals of 24. That means he has a 12.4% rate of both punchouts and free passes, both of which are well worse than league average.

It was understandable why the Sox were willing to give Soroka a shot. They started gutting their rotation at last year’s deadline by trading away Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. They didn’t flip Dylan Cease until March but it was clear that he was going to be out the door at some point as well. In March, it was reported that Michael Kopech was moving to the bullpen, though private discussions about that decision must have taken place prior to that.

There were plenty of holes to fill in the rotation and Soroka had been a dominant starter in the past. With Atlanta in 2019, he made 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate. But he then tore his achilles tendon twice in nine months and hasn’t seemed like the same pitcher since. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2021 or 2022 and then had a 6.40 ERA with Atlanta last year.

The Sox were undoubtedly hoping for a bounceback with a bit more remove from his injury absence. Soroka is an impending free agent, so any kind of step forward could have turned him into an interesting trade candidate this summer. But as mentioned, it hasn’t played out that way so far.

His continued struggles will get him pushed to the bullpen, though there’s a path to returning to the rotation, like Chris Flexen.. “He’s got some adjustments to make that we feel can really help him,” Grifol said, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “We did the same thing with Flexen. He pitched out of the bullpen, he threw a couple times, threw the ball great. Now he’s in the rotation.”

Flexen allowed 13 earned runs over his first three starts this year but then got bumped to the ’pen. He then threw four scoreless innings in his first relief outing and allowed just one run over 2 1/3. Since then, he has made three starts with just three earned run allowed in 16 innings.

Soroka could follow a similar path by improving his results, though another opportunity could also arise due to factors outside of his control. Pitchers injuries are common and the Sox could need Soroka in the rotation again if one is suffered by one of their starters.

It’s also possible that midseason trades will open spots in the months to come. Keller, Flexen and Clevinger are impending free agents and should be available. Erick Fedde is a possibility to go as well, given that he is on a two-year deal and putting up good numbers. Garrett Crochet is controllable through 2026, which makes him less obvious as a trade possibility, but it’s not impossible to imagine the Sox selling high on a guy who has missed a lot of time. Even if Crochet isn’t traded, he could hit a workload limit at some point since he’s thrown so little in the past.

For now, Clevinger, Fedde, Crochet and Flexen will be joined by Keller. He’s made four appearances for the Sox this year, including one start, with a 2.84 ERA. His 16.4% strikeout rate in that small sample isn’t very strong but he’s getting grounders at a 56.1% rate.

He’s had some previous success with that kind of shape. With the Royals from 2018 to 2020, he tossed 360 1/3 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate and 52.1% ground ball rate. But over the next three years, his ERA was at 5.14. His strikeout and ground ball rates held fairly steady over those spans, but his walk rate jump from 9.1% in the first one to 11.5% in the second.

He underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome late last year but seems to be back to his old self so far, at least in terms of making hitters pound the ball into the ground. The Sox will roll with him for a while Soroka tries to get his house in order and retake a rotation spot down the line.

Right-hander Erick Fedde has been Chicago’s only above-average starter this season. Lefty Garrett Crochet started brilliantly but has been hit hard of late, ballooning his ERA to just under 6.00. Michael Soroka, Jonathan Cannon, Chris Flexen and Nick Nastrini have all made multiple starts but all came into today with an ERA north of 6.00. Flexen allowed just two earned runs over five innings today, lowering his ERA to 4.85. The Sox have combined for a 5.52 ERA out of the rotation, ranking 29th in the big leagues — ahead of only the Rockies. White Sox starters have averaged an MLB-worst 1.61 homers per nine frames.

Keller, 28, is a longtime division foe for the Sox, having spent his entire big league career prior to this season with the Royals. From 2018-20, Keller emerged as a steadying presence for Kansas City, going from a Rule 5 long reliever to a core member of the rotation. He pitched 360 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball during that stretch, but his career went the opposite direction in three subsequent seasons.

From 2021-23, Keller was tagged for a 5.14 ERA as his command took a noticeable turn for the worse. He was limited to just 45 1/3 innings in 2023, logging a 4.57 ERA but issuing an alarming 45 walks along the way. Keller’s season ended early due to thoracic outlet symptoms. He inked a minor league deal with the ChiSox during the offseason and has made one scoreless relief appearance (1 2/3 innings) in addition to three starts at the Triple-A level, where he turned in a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings and piled up grounders at a huge 62.5% clip.

Clevinger will be entering his second season with the Sox. He started 24 games for the South Siders last year and notched a 3.77 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 30.9% ground-ball rate. Despite a solid season on the mound, Clevinger lingered in free agency and ultimately settled on a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the White Sox. He signed late enough that he required the current Triple-A tune-up before joining the big league rotation.

It’s not immediately clear who’ll lose their spot. Nastrini and Cannon have both already been optioned to Triple-A. Soroka and Flexen are veteran stopgaps who are only signed for the current season. Flexen has struggled mightily in the rotation and fared better in a pair of bullpen appearances, but as mentioned, he had a nice performance in today’s series finale against the Twins. Soroka has completed five innings in just three of his seven starts. Crochet’s workload figures to be monitored after he pitched just 24 1/3 frames last year in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He’s never topped 54 1/3 innings in a professional season since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

Bummer, a 30-year-old southpaw, had spent his entire career with the ChiSox. He developed from an unheralded 19th-round selection into one of the game’s more quietly excellent setup men. Bummer broke through in 2019, when he turned in a 2.13 ERA over 67 2/3 innings on the back of an eye-popping 72.1% grounder percentage.

The following February, Chicago signed Bummer to a long-term extension. Various injuries impacted him between 2020-22, as he spent time on the shelf with biceps and lat issues in his throwing arm and a right knee strain. Bummer remained effective when healthy, turning in a 2.92 ERA over that stretch.

That strong run prevention mark collapsed this past season. Bummer was tagged for nearly seven earned runs per nine over 58 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 50+ frames, only 12 had a higher ERA than his 6.79 mark. While that’ll make this a head-scratching move for many Atlanta fans, it’s clear the front office is placing a lot more stock in Bummer’s promising underlying indicators.

Bummer struck out an above-average 29.2% of batters faced this year. He has fanned just under 27% of opponents over the course of his career. He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker (a solid mark for a left-hander) and missed bats against hitters of either handedness. While he’s no longer posting ground-ball numbers reminiscent of peak Zach Britton, he kept the ball on the ground at a lofty 58.2% clip. That’s the 10th-highest rate among relievers who logged at least 50 innings.

Certainly, Bummer isn’t a flawless pitcher. While he tends to keep the ball down, he gives up a fair amount of hard contact. He has well below-average control and walked over 13% of opposing hitters this past season. While an elevated batting average on balls in play was a big reason for his disappointing ’23 campaign, he didn’t do himself many favors by handing out so many free passes.

The Braves clearly feel Bummer’s results will more closely match those he managed before this year. He joins A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek as potential high-leverage options from the left side. Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez are mid-late inning righties to help bridge the gap to closer Raisel Iglesias.

If Bummer returns to form, he could be a longer-term bullpen piece. He’ll make $5.5MM next season in the final guaranteed year of the aforementioned extension. He is guaranteed a $1.25MM buyout on a $7.25MM club option for 2025, while the deal also contains a $7.5MM team option (with a $1.25MM buyout) for the ’26 season.

It’s a consolidation trade for a win-now Atlanta team that can afford to target specific players it considers finishing touches to a championship-caliber roster. The White Sox are in the opposite position. Fresh off a 101-loss season, first-year general manager Chris Getz has set out to add depth to a team that has become far too top-heavy.

Trading a reliever for five players — four of whom are MLB options — is one way of doing so. While none of the four big leaguers is near the peak of their trade value, it’s easy to envision any of them playing a role on the 2024 White Sox from day one.

Soroka may be the most recognizable name. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he earned an All-Star nod and runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2019. Soroka had pitched to a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts in his age-21 season. He looked like one of the sport’s brightest young pitching talents before his career was sidetracked by horrible injury luck.

The right-hander sustained successive tears of his right Achilles tendon nine months apart in 2020 and ’21. The injuries cost him almost two full seasons. While he returned to the mound in 2023, he struggled to a 6.40 ERA over seven big league outings. Soroka had quite a bit more success in Triple-A. Over 17 starts with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate. Forearm inflammation ended his season in September but is not expected to require surgery.

Soroka accrued MLB service time throughout his injury rehab. As a result, he has over five years of service and will be a free agent next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3MM salary in his final season of arbitration. That made him a non-tender candidate for Atlanta, particularly since he can no longer be optioned to the minors. The White Sox are apparently willing to commit something in that range to see if he can recapture mid-rotation or better form.

Chicago has almost nothing in the way of rotation locks beyond Dylan Cease. Soroka now seems likely to get that opportunity. He could be joined by Shuster, a former first-round pick out of Wake Forest. The left-hander secured an Opening Day rotation spot with Atlanta a season ago. He struggled in his first MLB look, allowing a 5.81 ERA with a well below-average 13% strikeout rate over 52 2/3 innings.

Shuster had similarly discouraging numbers in Gwinnett. He was tagged for a 5.01 ERA through 16 starts with the Stripers. He struck out only 17.9% of hitters in Triple-A while walking 12.6% of opponents. While there aren’t many positives in Shuster’s 2023 performance, he’s only a year removed from ranking as one of the top pitchers in the Atlanta system. He’d posted a 3.29 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate in the minors in 2022, drawing praise for a potential plus changeup along the way.

Still just 25, Shuster could battle for a spot at the back of the Chicago rotation in Spring Training. He still has two option years remaining and has less than one year of MLB service. The Sox will hope he can put his tough debut behind him and reach the back-of-the-rotation projection of many prospect evaluators.

In some ways, Shewmake is a position player analogue of Shuster’s. He’s also a former first-round college draftee who’d generated some fanfare in Atlanta as recently as last spring. The Texas A&M product had a big Spring Training that led to some speculation he could open the season as the Braves’ starting shortstop. Atlanta rolled with veteran Orlando Arcia instead, a move that turned out well.

Not only did Arcia put together an All-Star season, Shewmake had a rough year in the minors. He hit .234/.298/.407 over 526 plate appearances for Gwinnett. He connected on 16 homers but hit only .264 on balls in play, keeping his on-base percentage down.

Scouts have questioned how much offensive upside the lefty-hitting Shewmake brings to the table. He’s soon to turn 26 and has only played two MLB games. Yet he’s a plus runner who went 27 of 28 in stolen base attempts in Triple-A. Shewmake can play either middle infield spot and has a pair of minor league options.

Adding middle infield talent was a necessity for Getz and his staff. The Sox had almost nothing at second base, relying on Lenyn Sosa and Romy González there. After buying out Tim Anderson, they were even lighter at shortstop. Shewmake could battle for a job, while Lopez seems likely to step into an everyday role at one of those positions.

The Sox are plenty familiar with Lopez from his days with the Royals. The 28-year-old has received elite grades for his defense at both middle infield spots and in more limited time at third base. It’s an all-glove profile, as Lopez has bottom-of-the-scale power. He’s a .228/.297/.284 hitter in 742 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Lopez has between four and five years of service and is projected for a $3.9MM arbitration salary. That felt like a luxury for an Atlanta team that relies on Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Arcia and Austin Riley almost every day. It’s a more palatable sum for a team that’ll use Lopez as a bottom-of-the-lineup regular — as the Sox now seem positioned to do.

Rounding out the return is Gowens, a 24-year-old righty who was selected in the ninth round of this past summer’s draft. He pitched to a 6.30 ERA but struck out almost 28% of opponents over 12 starts during his junior year at Illinois. Baseball America praised the life on his fastball in his draft report, suggesting he could project as a reliever in pro ball.

It’s an unexpected trade made possible by the discrepancy in the organizations’ depth. Atlanta could afford to package some players who had fallen towards the back of the roster for a reliever with upside but legitimate question marks. Chicago buys low on a handful of players at positions of need, hoping that one or two can click and provide more value than they would have received out of Bummer.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Stephens, 29, will get a second big league look with Atlanta after spending the bulk of the 2022 season in their bullpen. He tossed 53 2/3 innings off 3.69 ERA ball last year, striking out 20% of his opponents against a 9.8% walk rate with a 46.3% ground-ball rate. He had a lengthy stay on the minor league injured list this season but has been sharp both in rehab work in the low minors and more recently in Triple-A, where Stephens has pitched 24 2/3 frames with a 3.28 earned run average, 26% strikeout rate and outstanding 4% walk rate.

This will be the fourth season in which Stephens, a former 18th-round pick of the Reds (2012), logs major league time. He’s totaled 117 big league frames between Cincinnati and Atlanta, notching a combined 4.31 ERA in that time. Stephens has been pitching in two- and three-inning stints recently in Gwinnett — some of them starts, some out of the bullpen — so he’ll add some length to the Braves’ bullpen during today’s doubleheader against the Phillies.

It’s quite possible that Kyle Wright will be returning to make his first start since May in the second half of that twin bill, and he’s yet to throw more than 50 pitches or pitch beyond 3 2/3 innings during his rehab stint. As such, there’s all the more reason to call up an arm capable of providing three or perhaps even four innings of relief if needed.

10:00am: The Braves announced today that they have recalled right-handers Darius Vines and Ben Heller. In corresponding moves, righties Michael Soroka and Collin McHugh have each been placed on the 15-day injured list, Soroka due to right forearm inflammation and McHugh due to right shoulder inflammation.

Soroka started last night’s game for Atlanta but lasted just three innings, allowing five earned runs. Manager Brian Snitker spoke to reporters after the game, including David O’Brien of The Athletic, explaining that Soroka was experiencing numbness in the fingers of his pitching hand. “I think it’s probably a big deal,” Snitker said.

Further testing will surely come, with more information to follow based on that. Whatever the eventual results, it’s yet another frustrating setback for a pitcher who has had more than his fair share. After he made 29 starts in 2019 with a 2.68 earned run average, it seemed like he would be a cornerstone of the club’s rotation for years to come. But he then missed most of the next three seasons due to injuries, with two ruptures of his right Achilles tendon being the main culprit.

This year, he was slowed by a hamstring issue in the spring but had been largely healthy since then, getting frequently optioned to Triple-A and back as needed. He has a solid 3.41 ERA in 87 Triple-A innings this year but has a 6.40 mark in his 32 1/3 big league frames. After so much missed time, just being able to take the mound and take on that workload has to count as a big win, but he’s now facing yet another injury setback.

McHugh, now 36, signed with Atlanta on a two-year, $10MM deal going into 2022. The first season of that deal could hardly have gone much better, as he posted a 2.60 ERA over 69 1/3 innings. This year, however, his ERA has climbed to 4.30 in his 58 2/3 innings. Last year’s strikeout rate of 27.6% has dropped to just 17.5% this year, while his walk rate has climbed from 5.1% to 8.2%.

The club is in comfortable position right now, with a lead of 14.5 games in the National League East and even a lead of 3.5 games over the Orioles for best team in the majors. They will cruise into the postseason but will have a bit less pitching depth for the next few weeks and perhaps into October. A quick turnaround from either pitcher or a deep postseason run from the club could get Soroka or McHugh back into the mix but the time left in the season is narrowing quickly.

Atlanta will eventually have to make decisions about the future of both pitchers. McHugh’s contract contains a $6MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Soroka will be eligible for arbitration again and due a raise on this year’s $2.8MM salary. He’s in his final option year and is slated to be out of options next season, which will give him less roster maneuverability going forward.

3:42PM: The Braves have claimed right-hander Yonny Chirinos off waivers from the Rays.  Chirinos was designated for assignment by Tampa Bay earlier this week.

After Tommy John surgery limited Chirinos to 18 1/3 total innings from 2020-22, he has seemed fully healthy in pitching 62 2/3 frames this year working in a variety of different capacities for the Rays.  Chirinos has started four games, worked as a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) on multiple occasions, and also had a couple of traditional relief outings as a long man and mop-up man.  He has a 4.02 ERA to show for his efforts, though his 5.34 SIERA is perhaps more reflective of Chirinos’ overall performance.  The righty has benefited from a .244 BABIP and he isn’t missing many bats, with only an 11.8% strikeout rate.

These unfavorable secondary metrics could be why the Rays chose to DFA Chirinos, though for a team with as many pitching injuries as Tampa Bay, it still counted as something of an eyebrow-raising move.  As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last Monday when Chirinos was put on waivers, service time could have been a factor, as Chirinos has surpassed five years of MLB service time and now cannot be optioned to the minors without his permission.  This might have been a breaking point for a Rays team that often shuffles pitchers back and forth from Triple-A Durham — in fact, Chirinos himself was twice optioned earlier this season before he hit the five-year threshold.

Chirinos’ ability to work in several different roles would’ve made him a good fit on many clubs, but Atlanta is a particularly fitting landing spot given the Braves’ own pitching depth issues.  The Braves could see Chirinos as something of a replacement for Kolby Allard, who sent on the 60-day IL earlier this week due to nerve inflammation in his left shoulder.

Allard is one of a whopping eight pitchers on Atlanta’s 60-day IL, including such prominent arms as Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Jesse Chavez, and Nick Anderson.  Manager Brian Snitker said today that Fried might be one more rehab start away from returning to the active roster, but with so many other pitchers still out, Chirinos give the Braves flexibility.  Atlanta could ease Fried or Wright back into action by teaming them with Chirinos in a piggyback capacity, or Chirinos might be paired with Michael Soroka to manage innings.

Overall, Chirinos is a pretty nice pickup for the Braves to make even before they delve into further moves prior to the trade deadline.  There isn’t much financial cost (roughly $515K in remaining salary), and Chirinos is still controlled through the 2024 season via arbitration.