December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

I’m going to do everything [I can]. I don’t know how that’s all going to work out. I kind of hope they do what they did with Chappy — start conversations now, so we’re not bidding against other teams. I’m sure there’s teams in our division that are going to try hard to get him. Teams need good starting pitching, and he’s been the best in baseball since the beginning of July. It’s been awesome to watch, and he’s one of my favorite teammates. Hopefully we do everything we can to get him back.

He didn’t have a spring training, right? … He was kind of scuffling. I think he was doubting himself a little bit. And then, all of a sudden, look what happens when he gains some confidence. He’s back to Blake Snell. He’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Not many guys are two-time Cy Young Award winners, and you can see it when he throws. He’s throwing pellets. It’s unbelievable, as a lefty. I don’t know how anybody hits this. We’ve got to do everything we can to get him back. I do think he should be a big part of our future going forward.

Webb noted to Rose that he doesn’t plan to campaign to the front office in unprompted manner — though public-facing comments of this nature are in a way indirectly doing so — but would offer his opinions and any feedback if asked. It’s clear that Webb, a perennial Cy Young candidate himself, values Snell’s on-field contributions as well as the left-hander’s presence in the clubhouse.

The assertion that Snell has been baseball’s best arm dating back to early July is hard to argue, too. Snell’s no-hitter gained plenty of attention, but as I explored in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers a couple weeks ago, Snell has picked up his annual second-half momentum and looks to be back in Cy Young form. He obviously won’t win the award this season after a dismal start to the season that included him twice landing on the injured list, but since returning from his latest IL stint on July 9, Snell has a 1.45 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He’s punched out a gaudy 36.5% of his opponents, offsetting a higher-than-average 10.5% walk rate, and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 12 starts (the exception being a three-run, six-inning quality start on Aug. 7).

That run of dominance makes Snell’s opt-out an easy call — the alternative would be a $30MM player option for the 2025 season — but it’s not clear whether the front office has engaged with agent Scott Boras (who also reps Chapman). The Giants have been reluctant to make weighty long-term offers to free agent pitchers under the current front office regime. Webb’s five-year, $90MM extension is the largest contract the Giants have given to a pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in both years and dollars. They haven’t signed a free agent for more than three years (Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM deal) or for more than a total of $44MM (Carlos Rodon’s two-year deal). Snell should breeze past both marks.

Snell isn’t the only Giant whose future is uncertain, of course. The Giants have a wide slate of potential free agents but also some borderline arbitration calls. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski spoke with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about his own status. The 34-year-old is owed a raise on his $7.9MM salary this offseason and has turned in a fairly typical season by his standards, slashing .237/.310/.441 with 15 home runs and quality defense in right field.

Yastrzemski has been a fine value at his current salary, but an arb raise could push him north of $10MM. For a player in his mid-30s who’s unlikely to return to his standout 2019-20 form, that could be present a difficult decision as the non-tender deadline approaches in November — particularly since the Giants have a number of younger outfield options. Heliot Ramos has solidified himself in the 2025 outfield, and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will be back next year after undergoing shoulder surgery that ended his season back in May. Grant McCray, 23, has looked a bit over his head in 85 plate appearances so far (.247 OBP, 41% strikeout rate), but he had a decent showing in Triple-A this year. He and/or Luis Matos could push into the picture next season.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Yastrzemski is more of a part-time player, but his salary could be steep for that role. He made clear to Slusser he hopes to be back, however, even mentioning a willingness to sign a two-year deal that’d lower his contract’s average annual value. We don’t typically see players heading into their final arbitration season voice willingness to sign for only two years, but Yastrzemski is older than most players with five-plus years of service and also spoke of how he’s “grown so in love with” the organization, the stadium, the clubhouse and the city itself.

Slusser also adds that outfielder Michael Conforto, a free agent at season’s end, is hoping to return to San Francisco. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where both Yastrzemski and Conforto are back next year, however, as the Giants will want to earmark playing time for Ramos and Lee and surely want to leave the door open for at-bats for younger outfielders like McCray and Matos. One of Conforto or Yastrzemski, at most, seems feasible.

The 31-year-old Conforto has never regained his star-level form after undergoing shoulder surgery two years ago, but he’s popped 16 homers for the Giants this season while batting .229/.307/.430. He’s been about 7% better than average after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+, but he’s also sitting on the lowest full-season walk rate of his career (9.3%) and his highest strikeout rate (25%) since 2017.

Conforto likely won’t come close to the two-year, $36MM contract he received from the Giants two offseasons ago this time around. Familiarity with the player could prompt some interest in a reunion from the San Francisco front office, but he hasn’t been a handily above-average bat since 2020 at this point. A modest one- or two-year deal could be the outcome this offseason, and a Giants club hoping to establish more of an offensive identity moving forward might prefer to shuffle the lineup rather than largely maintain the status quo.

Whether the Giants make any noteworthy additions also still seems to be in question, as Slusser feels the team could bring in a new outfielder “if they add.”  The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants are looking for a good defender to play center field, and Heliot Ramos would then be moved into a corner outfield slot.  Star prospect Marco Luciano will be recalled for another crack at the big leagues, and Luciano will factor into the DH picture with Michael Conforto and (when healthy) Wilmer Flores now that Soler is gone.

Naturally plans could still change as things develop leading up to the deadline, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently suggested that the Giants feel they could move Conforto to a team that would take on the rest of the roughly $6MM remaining of his $18MM salary.  It could be that the Soler trade already provides enough financial relief that the Giants wouldn’t feel compelled to move Conforto as well, though if payroll isn’t a primary concern, the Giants could be freeing up some money to be flexible enough for a larger splash if an pricier option becomes available.

This type of measured approach to the trade deadline isn’t likely to please the San Francisco fanbase, yet it speaks to the team’s uncertain position in the standings.  The Giants are 53-55 with a -16 run differential, but a four-game winning streak has brought them within four games of an NL wild card berth.  With a number of lesser opponents (i.e. the A’s, White Sox, Marlins) all coming up on the schedule in the next five weeks, the ingredients might be there for the Giants to make a run…..or the front office could see the hill as too tall to climb.

In regards to Snell in particular, Baggarly says San Francisco would “have to be overwhelmed” to trade the southpaw, and the team is “not expecting something to materialize” between now and 5pm CT on Tuesday.  For comparison’s sake, Baggarly said the Giants would want more for Snell than the Blue Jays got from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade earlier tonight. 

The New York Post’s Jon Heyman also reported that the Giants weren’t willing to include any money in a Snell trade to cover the significant remaining cost of his contract.  The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed last offseason breaks down as a $17MM signing bonus that has already been paid, a $15MM salary for 2024 (so roughly $5MM remains owed), and then $30MM in 2025.  While Snell can opt out of that second year and return to free agency, rival teams are understandably wary about taking on that possible hefty cost, considering that Snell has a checkered injury history.

An opt-out didn’t appear to on the cards whatsoever for Snell just a few weeks ago, yet he has revived his trade value with some exceptional pitching since his return from the injured list.  Snell has an 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate over 24 innings in his last four starts, suddenly once again looking like the dominant ace who won the NL Cy Young Award last year.

The Cubs, Orioles, Padres, and Yankees are all known to have expressed some level of interest about Snell, and SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets have also “checked in” with the Giants, with “no traction” yet on any possible deal.  Martino implies that this might have been something of a due diligence call from the Mets, as naturally any contender would want to at least touch base with San Francisco about what it would take to pry Snell away.

There aren’t many obvious options on that front. The Marlins are likely to deal center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a trade with the Mets could be complicated by the division factor. The Nationals probably wouldn’t have any qualms about dealing impending free agent Jesse Winker within the NL East. Beyond that duo, the Giants might have the top pair of trade candidates among lefty-hitting outfielders in Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.

Of course, the Mets are plenty familiar with Conforto. A former 10th overall pick, he hit .255/.356/.468 through parts of seven seasons with the team. Conforto represented the Mets in the 2017 All-Star Game and was one of the better hitters in the league between 2017-20. His production dipped in his ’21 platform season. The Mets allowed him to walk in free agency after he declined a qualifying offer. Conforto injured his shoulder while working out that offseason. He underwent surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $36MM free agent pact the next winter.

Conforto hasn’t recaptured his peak offensive form coming back from the injury. He has been an unexceptional hitter over his season and a half in the Bay Area. He turned in a .239/.334/.384 slash through 470 plate appearances a year ago. It’s a similar story in 2024. Conforto carries a .226/.298/.415 batting line through 80 contests. His 9% walk rate is his lowest in any full season of his career. He’s striking out at a customary 24.1% clip.

The 31-year-old has had a slight rebound in his hard contact rate and power production. He’s slugging above .400 for the first time in four years and has 10 homers across 299 plate appearances — the equivalent of a half-season of action. That uptick in power has come with a career-low OBP, however. Conforto’s overall offense is again almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s on par with what he produced in his final season in Queens and his first year in San Francisco.

Conforto is playing this year on an $18MM salary, nearly $6.3MM of which is still to be paid out. It’s not likely that other teams would take the full freight. Not only has Conforto’s overall production been middling, he has been in a funk of late. He carried a .280/.331/.490 slash into June but owns a .165/.261/.331 line over his most recent 145 plate appearances.

The Giants may need to kick in money and accept a minimal prospect return if they’re going to move him in the next few days. The Mets are paying a 110% fee on any salary they take. Absorbing all of Conforto’s remaining money would cost them upwards of $13MM including luxury taxes. That’s probably not appealing even to an organization that has leveraged its financial might to take on a couple struggling relievers, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, this month.

San Francisco has dropped six of its last 10 and fallen six games below .500. They’re 5.5 games back of the Padres for the last Wild Card spot with five additional teams to pass in the standings. Their mediocre play coming out of the All-Star Break seems to have them positioned as sellers.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

June 2: Blake Snell’s nightmare of a season looks to be taking him back to the injured list, as the Giants left-hander had to leave today’s start against the Yankees due to left groin tightness.  Snell had thrown 4 2/3 innings and the first two pitches of an at-bat against Alex Verdugo before he had to depart after a visit from the team trainer.  Speaking with NBC Sports Bay Area and other media post-game, Giants manager Bob Melvin indicated Snell will almost surely be placed back on the 15-day IL, and a fuller timeline might be known when Snell undergoes an MRI tomorrow.

A similar injury led to Snell’s initial IL placement back on April 23, as he ended up missing almost exactly a month of action due to a left adductor strain.  Today marked Snell’s third start back in action, and he again didn’t have much success, finishing with three earned runs over his 4 2/3 frames.

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner now has a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings since signing a two-year, $62MM free agent deal with San Francisco on March 19.  Since Snell didn’t sign until just a week prior to Opening Day, his preseason work consisted of extended Spring Training and simulated games, and the rust has been pretty evident since he made his Giants debut on April 8.  It isn’t a stretch to say that these twin groin/adductor injuries might also stem from Snell not being entirely ramped up for the start of his season, though he did look great in his rehab outings while recovering from his previous injury.

Assuming the MRI doesn’t reveal anything more serious, it would seem like Snell is in for at least another month on the sidelines, as both he and the Giants surely want to ensure that this injury is fully dealt with before Snell restarts another round of throwing sessions and minor league rehab starts.  Given the calendar, it seems possible that Snell could potentially be out until after the All-Star break, if the Giants wanted to give more time if he wasn’t quite ready by the beginning of July.

Missing more time also has broader implications on Snell’s future in San Francisco, as his contract carries an opt-out clause.  The two-year deal was designed to allow Snell to potentially re-enter the market quickly after another strong season, and this time land the more lucrative longer-term pact that eluded him this past winter.  However, even if he returns in July in his past form and pitches like an ace the rest of the way, the lackluster first three months might’ve already done enough to reinforce whatever doubts teams have about Snell’s ability to stay healthy.  Remaining with the Giants and banking another $30MM in 2025 isn’t exactly an ugly outcome for Snell, but since he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2026, time is running out for Snell to truly maximize his earning potential.

Only five National League teams have winning records, so the 29-31 Giants still hold the third wild card slot despite all their struggles.  The rotation has been an obvious concern, as Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison have been San Francisco’s only reliable starters — Snell, Keaton Winn, and Mason Black have gotten the majority of other starts and none have pitched well.  Winn has also been out of action due to a forearm strain, though he was set for a minor league rehab game on Tuesday.

Since the Giants have an off-days both on Thursday and on June 13, they could keep Winn on his planned rehab schedule because the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter for close to three weeks.  Black could also be recalled from Triple-A, and the Giants are still probably at least six weeks away from having Robbie Ray or Alex Cobb as viable candidates to return from the 60-day IL.  Ray will pitch in an Arizona Complex League game this week as he continues to rehab his way back from Tommy John surgery, and Cobb has started throwing again after shoulder discomfort led to a shutdown in mid-May.

Conforto’s injury first occurred during last night’s game against the Reds, which saw him pulled during the fourth inning due to what the club termed at the time right hamstring tightness (as noted by Maria Guardardo of MLB.com). John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle noted that manager Bob Melvin told reporters after the game that the injury was a hamstring strain, albeit one that “feels mild.” Melvin added that Conforto was scheduled to undergo an MRI today and that more details would be available then. The Giants have not yet commented on the results of that MRI, but Conforto’s placement on the IL guarantees that he’ll be out for at least ten days.

The loss of Conforto, 31, is a damaging one for the Giants. The veteran outfielder signed with the club on a two-year deal on the heels of a lost 2022 season where he did not play due to injury and while he posted league average results with San Francisco last year, he’s been one of their most productive bats this season with a strong .280/.331/.490 slash line that’s good for a wRC+ of 136. That production has been a rare bright spot on a Giants team that entered today with an 18-23 record in part thanks to a lackluster offense that has posted a collective wRC+ of just 97 this season, good for 19th in the majors. The offense’s struggles have been further compounded by injuries in recent days, as Conforto joins Tom Murphy, Jorge Soler, Austin Slater, and Nick Ahmed in departing for the injured list in the past week alone.

Replacing Conforto on the club’s active roster is Matos, a 22-year-old who was a consensus top-100 prospect back in 2022. He made his MLB debut last year but struggled in 76 games at the big league level, hitting a paltry .250/.319/.342 in 253 trips to the plate en route to a wRC+ of just 87. Despite those struggles, however, it’s at least feasible that Matos could help contribute to the club’s offense given his solid .310/.408/.417 slash line against southpaws last season and a contact-oriented bat that allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 13% last year in the majors. Aside from Matos, Conforto’s injury could create more playing time for the likes of Blake Sabol and Wilmer Flores in the coming days.

Conforto, 31 in June, signed a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants coming into the 2023 season. He was allowed to opt out of the deal after the first season, so long as he took at least 350 trips to the plate in that initial campaign. He easily eclipsed that figure, getting to 470 PAs, but the quality of his work was only so-so. He hit 15 home runs on the year, well below his 30-per-year run from a few years ago. His .239/.334/.384 line amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he was exactly league average.

The decision on whether or not to opt out was arguably borderline, despite the tepid season. This winter’s free agent market is considered to be light in terms of impact bats, which could have perhaps given Conforto a boost. He also demonstrated his health after missing the entire 2022 season, which was somewhat encouraging on its own. But on the other hand, there likely would not have been tons of momentum behind him if he decided to return to free agency.

Conforto had an incredibly strong run from 2017 to 2020, hitting 97 home runs in that time and slashing .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133. But his batting line dipped to .232/.344/.384 in 2021, with just 14 homers. That was an ill-timed down year, as it preceded Conforto’s free agency. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets in search of a more significant deal but ended up injuring his shoulder during that winter’s lockout. He eventually required surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign.

The Giants took a shot on a post-surgery bounceback, though it didn’t quite work out. If he had returned to free agency, he would have had a hard time marketing himself. On the one hand, he has some very strong past results and is coming off a healthy campaign. But two of the past three years have featured fairly tepid offense, with a totally lost year in between. The shortened 2020 season obviously wasn’t his fault, but the fact remains that Conforto hasn’t been both healthy and clearly above average at the plate for a full season since 2019. Since he’s not considered an especially strong defender, that declining offense obviously hurts his earning power.

Conforto now slots into the outfield depth chart for the 2024 Giants, alongside Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater, with LaMonte Wade Jr., Heliot Ramos and Blake Sabol perhaps in the mix as well. The Giants are expected to be aggressive this winter, likely pursuing marquee free agents after missing out on players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter. They have been speculatively tied to outfielders like Cody Bellinger and successfully pursuing such a player would further crowd this picture.

That could perhaps lead to Conforto or someone else being shopped around in trades. Conforto, Yastrzemski, Wade and Sabol all hit from the left side, as does Bellinger. For a platoon-loving club like the Giants, perhaps that’s too many lefties for one outfield, but it also depends on how the dominos fall this winter. Clubs would likely have some level of interest in taking a flier on Conforto given the market conditions, but the valuations from them might fluctuate based on whether they believe he’s capable of returning to his pre-2021 form.

For the Giants, keeping Conforto’s salary on the books means they are projected to have a payroll of $147MM, per Roster Resource. They have had payrolls around $200MM many times in the past and their competitive balance tax number is currently pegged at $170MM. The base threshold is going to be $237MM in 2024, giving them plenty of room before the luxury tax would become a concern.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching.  Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

• The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength.  From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances.  As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
• The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024.  Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster.  On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options.  There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.

Conforto’s strain is of the Grade 2 variety, the team informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). That’s of moderate severity and seems likely to keep him out beyond the requisite week and a half. San Francisco didn’t specify a timetable. Royals outfielder Kyle Isbel missed roughly six weeks when he suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain earlier in the season. That’s not a guarantee Conforto’s absence will be the same but suggests he’s likely at least in for a multi-week absence.

The injury halts a strong recent run for Conforto, who has been one of the best hitters in a struggling San Francisco lineup. He’s hitting .300/.400/.433 going back to the start of August. His first season in the Bay Area has been up-and-down overall.

In 426 plate appearances, the longtime Met owns a .251/.343/.405 line with 15 home runs. That’s above-average but not overwhelming offensive output. When paired with slightly below-average defensive marks in the corner outfield, Conforto’s season looks quite similar to his final year in Queens. By tallying 350 trips to the plate, he vested the right to opt out of his $18MM salary for next season. That’s a borderline call if he’s healthy. An extended absence could increase the odds he returns.

The Giants are running with Joc Pederson, Wade Meckler and Luis Matos as their outfield tonight against Braves ace Spencer Strider. Righty-swinging Austin Slater is on hand as a platoon complement, while the former first-round pick Ramos fills out the bench.

As for Camargo, the veteran infielder was designated for assignment on Wednesday. He appeared in eight games between the time San Francisco selected his minor league contract and DFA him after signing Paul DeJong. Camargo collected four hits (all singles) and a walk in 20 trips to the plate.

He’ll have the right to head back to free agency. Camargo only signed with the Giants 12 days ago but could explore other landing spots now that DeJong has jumped him on the depth chart. The switch-hitter owns a .260/.339/.466 line in 165 Triple-A plate appearances on the season — split between the affiliates of the Royals, Tigers and Giants.

Whether Conforto, 30, ultimately opts out of his deal will depend on his final couple months of play. As things stand, he’s had a roughly average season at the plate, batting .241/.331/.401 (102 wRC+) with 13 homers, 10 doubles, four stolen bases, a 10.5% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate. As recently as late May, it looked like the longtime Mets slugger was trending toward an opt-out, but his bat has gone cold as the weather has warmed. Conforto was hitting .250/.347/.464 through his first 196 plate appearances, but he batted just .228/.303/.324 over his next 152 trips to the plate.

Conforto’s season-long numbers are respectable — but they’re also a far cry from the .265/.369/.495 slash he turned in across 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20. The former first-round pick might’ve commanded a nine-figure deal in free agency had he sustained that output for one more season, but Conforto’s production slipped to .232/.344/.384 through 125 games in 2021. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets at the end of that season, still hopeful of securing a multi-year deal, but an offseason shoulder injury required surgery that kept Conforto out of action for the entire 2022 season. He didn’t sign with a club until the 2022-23 offseason when he inked his current deal with the Giants.

Though Conforto performed at a star-caliber level during that 2017-20 peak, he’s now turned in tepid .237/.337/.392 slash over his past 827 plate appearances — his 2021 and 2023 campaigns combined. He’s still walking at a strong clip, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate remain largely unchanged. However, he’s hitting the ball on the ground at the highest rate of his career (46.9%), and this season’s 17% line-drive rate is the lowest of his career. The plus defensive marks he regularly generated early in his career have also deteriorated; he’s sporting negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-3) so far in 2023.

The upcoming free agent class skews heavily toward pitchers, with very few impact bats available. A strong finish that looks more like Conforto’s peak years could position him as one of the better bats on the market, joining the likes of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. As far as pure corner outfielders, Conforto would be up against Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Joc Pederson, among others.

1:52pm: Giants outfielder Michael Conforto is dealing with a heel bruise on his left foot and will undergo an X-ray, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Conforto will also undergo an MRI, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, who adds that the outfielder is walking with a limp at the moment.

To this point, it’s unclear how severe the injury is, but it’s obviously somewhat concerning that Conforto is having trouble putting his weight on the foot. The fact that he’s about to undergo a series of tests points to some level of concern on the part of the club as well. “He was feeling much better last night than he is today,” manager Gabe Kapler tells Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. “He’s in more discomfort.” The results of that testing will provide some clarity on what to expect going forward.

Health has been a major focus for Conforto in recent years, as he missed the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery. The Giants then took a shot on a bounceback by signing him to a two-year, $36MM deal, one that allowed him to opt out after the first season. There was an added level of risk since he also struggled in 2021, hitting .232/.344/.384 that year for a wRC+ of 106. He was still above average but well off his previous form, as he hit .265/.369/.495 from 2017 to 2020 for a 133 wRC+.

Despite an entire year off, he has been in good form so far this year, having hit 11 home runs already. His .250/.347/.464 batting line translates to a 123 wRC+, just about in line with his career production. He has been on a particularly torrid stretch lately, hitting seven of those 11 home runs in the past three weeks while slashing .373/.421/.716 for a wRC+ of 202 in that time.

It would obviously be a blow to the Giants if that kind of bat was removed for the lineup, so the results of the imaging will be significant for the club. They are already without other outfield options, as each of Joc Pederson, Heliot Ramos and Luis González is on the injured list right now. Should Conforto join them, the Giants would have to figure out a plan for moving forward.

Mitch Haniger and Mike Yastrzemski would have two outfield spots spoken for, with Bryce Johnson and Austin Slater also on the roster. Johnson is generally considered a glove-first option while Slater is an effective hitter but primarily against left-handed pitchers. He’s hit .290/.380/.476 against southpaws in his career but .226/.314/.336 otherwise. Blake Sabol could also spend some time in the outfield though he’s also part of the catching mix alongside Patrick Bailey. Luis Matos is on the 40-man roster and playing well in the minors but hasn’t yet made his major league debut. He has a .315/.395/.452 batting line this year, split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The extent of the heel injury could also potentially have ramifications for Conforto personally, as he will be deciding whether or not to trigger his opt-out at season’s end. He’s making salaries of $18MM this year and next and will have to decide whether to leave the back half on the table or return to the open market in search of a larger guarantee. The opt-out provision is contingent on him reaching 350 plate appearances on the season and he’s already more than halfway there, currently at 196. A significant absence would decrease his chances of getting over that threshold. Even if he does make it over the 350 line, any injury-related dip in performance could impact his decision.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

• Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
• Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
• Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
• Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
• Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
• Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
• Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
• Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

• Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
• Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
• Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
• Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
• Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
• Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
• Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
• Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
• Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Despite the lost year, Conforto landed a surprising $36MM guarantee from the Giants. He’ll make $18MM this year and could test free agency next winter if he tallies at least 350 plate appearances during the upcoming season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed the signing with Joel Sherman of the New York Post, noting that while he’s “sympathetic” to those who were taken aback by the contract, the front office is “just so confident how good he’s going to be this year.”

Zaidi noted the Giants expect Conforto to be fully healthy and broadly expressed the belief he’ll return to the middle-of-the-order hitter he was for the majority of his time with the Mets. Zaidi called Conforto a candidate for a nine-figure free agent deal before his shoulder injury, although that’d have been likelier if he’d hit free agency after 2020 as opposed to following a relative down year in ’21 (.232/.344/.384 in 479 plate appearances). Regardless, it’s clear the Giants anticipate Conforto more closely resembling the player he was over the preceding four seasons, when he combined for a .265/.369/.495 line.

The signings of Conforto and Mitch Haniger overhauled San Francisco’s corner outfield. They’ll play regularly when healthy, although Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that it’s still to be determined who’ll man which corner. Both players have seen more action in right field than left. Pavlovic notes that concerns about Conforto’s post-surgery arm strength could push him to left field but they’ll move the duo around in Spring Training to gauge their best alignment heading into the season.

The pair of offseason pickups should push Joc Pederson off the grass for the most part. He’s likely to be the designated hitter most days but has gotten some first base reps this spring to give the team slightly more flexibility. That’ll be put on hold during the World Baseball Classic, however. Pederson is expected to work solely in the outfield for the Israeli national team, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’ll continue to get first base reps once he returns to S.F. camp.

That’s not the only experiment the Giants are running with the luxury of exhibition games. The club brought in former Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzmán on a non-roster deal and is allowing him to work as a two-way player. Guzmán has pitched three times this spring, allowing three runs in as many innings. He’s coming off easily his best outing, though, striking out Eddy Alvarez, Skye Bolt and Jesse Winker in a perfect inning today.

After the game, Gumzán told reporters he signed with the Giants in large part because they were the sole club offering him an opportunity to play both ways (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “That was a big issue, to be honest. The Giants were the only team that wanted me to pitch only,” the 28-year-old said, noting that other teams targeted him strictly as first base depth.  “I had to really think about it. I had to let them understand how I feel about things. At the end of the day, they gave me the opportunity to do both but mostly pitch. But some teams rejected me. I knew what I wanted. I wanted to do both. And I knew I had the capability to do both.”

Baggarly writes that Guzmán isn’t under consideration for an Opening Day roster spot. He’ll head to Triple-A Sacramento once the season starts and continue working out of the bullpen there. The Giants have Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander ticketed for MLB jobs, while Sam Long offers a depth candidate already on the 40-man roster. Guzmán joins Sean Newcomb and Darien Núñez among the non-roster players in camp.

Thomas Szapucki, one of four players acquired from the Mets in last summer’s Darin Ruf deal, also could factor into the group if healthy. He tossed 13 2/3 innings of three-run ball after the trade, striking out 16 while walking just four. Kapler told reporters today that Szapucki is headed for further examination after experiencing some elbow discomfort, however (via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The club figures to provide more information about his outlook and return timetable in the coming days.

More from the division…

• Turning to the Rockies’ pitching staff, they’re facing a somewhat uncertain rotation picture to begin the season with righty Antonio Senzatela still rehabbing from last year’s torn ACL. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag that the target for Senzatela’s return is still sometime in May — as was reported last month — but Saunders provides a less-optimistic outlook on southpaw Ryan Rolison, who had shoulder surgery last June. Rolison is still “weeks away” from pitching in a game setting, which likely takes him out of the running to make starts for the club early in the 2023 season. Righty Peter Lambert, however, is healthy and has already made one Cactus League appearance after a generally lost pair of seasons in 2021-22. Lambert underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, pitched just 18 innings in 2021 after recovering, and was limited to only 8 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a forearm injury and renewed elbow troubles. If he’s healthy, the former No. 44 overall draft pick (2015) could factor into the Colorado rotation early, alongside German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena and (likely) Austin Gomber.
• New Giants outfielder Michael Conforto has been limited to DH work so far, but he expects him to be full-go by Opening Day, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Conforto tells Heyman that his surgically repaired shoulder is back to full strength, but he’s still working to regain the accuracy on his throws from the outfield. More notably, perhaps, Heyman reports that the official diagnosis of the previously nebulous injury that prompted Conforto to undergo surgery and miss the 2022 campaign was a “capsule fracture” in his right shoulder. Conforto notably suffered a dislocation and capsule tear in his left shoulder back in 2017 as well. He returned from that injury and went on to hit .261/.365/.478 over a three-year span (2018-20) before stumbling to a .232/.344/.384 output in 2021, his last healthy season.
• Veteran lefty Cole Hamels, angling for an age-39 comeback with his hometown Padres, is slated to throw his third bullpen session of spring training today, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The goal is for roughly 35 pitches. Hamels and the Padres are aiming for the lefty to be built up to around 45 pitches before he begins facing live hitters, so there’ll likely be one more ’pen session in the coming days before he takes that step. Meanwhile, veteran outfielder Adam Engel has been slowed by a calf strain and has yet to get into spring games. Engel, 31, figures to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder if he’s healthy enough to take the field come Opening Day. Manager Bob Melvin indicated last week that Engel wouldn’t play in the first week of spring games, but the team hasn’t provided a formal update on his status since.