Based on the lack of free agent activity, the Jays seem to be one of the likeliest teams to land one of the few remaining stars on the open market. However, a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet casts some doubt on that possibility. Davidi writes that the Jays “are believed to be on the periphery” of the markets for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Toronto has reportedly made an offer to Anthony Santander, yet Davidi indicates that the Jays do not look like the current favorite to land the former Orioles slugger.

Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the remaining unsigned star-caliber hitters. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are viable regulars but clearly below the preceding trio in terms of offensive impact and earning potential. Giménez stabilizes second base but isn’t a huge threat at the plate. If the Jays come up empty on each of Bregman, Santander and Alonso, they’d be left with trade possibilities to spark a middling offense. Davidi writes that Toronto is actively exploring the trade market but does not identify any specific targets for the team.

[Related: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?]

The Jays were linked to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried before they inked significant deals earlier in the winter. They lost the bidding to the Mets on Soto. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks, at least partially because of geographic ties to Arizona. Davidi writes that the Jays were simply not comfortable with the eventual eight-year, $218MM deal that Fried secured from the Yankees. He indicates that Toronto never made an offer once they realized that the bidding was well beyond where they were willing to go.

Toronto narrowly dipped below the luxury tax threshold late last season. They have around $228MM in luxury tax commitments for this year, according to RosterResource. That puts them $13MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Any kind of free agent splash would push them into tax territory. Davidi indicates that while the Jays aren’t opposed to going into CBT range, they could decide to keep their tax number below $241MM if they don’t land any marquee targets.

An uncertain direction for the organization has hung over the offseason. Toronto has resisted a rebuild, but they’ve only made a few additions to a team that went 74-88. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are one season from free agency. There has never been much of an indication that they’ll extend Bichette. They’ve made an effort to keep Guerrero but seem far apart with the star first baseman.

Guerrero said last month that the team had offered him around $340MM. The four-time All-Star said that wasn’t close to his asking price and indicated that he’d end extension talks if there’s no deal in place by the beginning of Spring Training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported this week that Guerrero was looking for a deal of at least $450MM. Needless to say, that’s a big gap to bridge. That’d be particularly true if Guerrero holds firm to the Spring Training cutoff, though it’s not uncommon for players to continue negotiations past self-imposed deadlines if they feel progress is being made.

Davidi writes that the $340MM offer which the Jays made is believed to have predated Soto’s eye-popping $765MM contract. That may simply be an outlier, but it’s natural that Guerrero — arguably the top free agent in next year’s class — would aim high after Soto shattered all contractual precedents. Guerrero is set for what’ll be the highest salary for any arbitration-eligible player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at $29.6MM. Teams and players will exchange filing figures tomorrow afternoon. That could spur the Jays and Guerrero to work on a one-year settlement to avoid going to a hearing. That would not prevent them from continuing discussions on a long-term deal at a later date.

After losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Yankees had plenty of money to outspend the rest of the field for his services and made use of those resources. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported earlier this evening that the Yanks were willing to offer Fried seven years, but they were evidently willing to going beyond that to get the market’s top unsigned southpaw on what is the largest contract for a lefty pitcher in MLB history, outbidding the club’s fellow finalists for Fried’s services in Boston and Dallas. It’s not hard to see what they like about the southpaw. Dating back to his first full season in 2019, Fried has a 3.07 ERA in 824 2/3 innings pitched. Only one pitcher in baseball has bested him in both categories during that time: Gerrit Cole, who he’ll now share the front of the Yankees rotation with.

That track record of dominance and durability that made Fried such an appealing target in the Bronx given the question marks that surround the rest of the club’s deep but flawed rotation mix. Carlos Rodón has been utterly dominant at times throughout his career, but he’s looked uneven in two seasons with the Yankees as he’s pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 46 starts. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman has a long history of solid mid-rotation work, but he’s entering his age-34 season and did not make an appearance during the club’s run to the World Series this postseason. Nestor Cortes offers similar mid-rotation stability but struggled as recently as last year and is just one season away from free agency. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil and fellow youngster Clarke Schmidt both turned in promising seasons in 2024 but have checkered injury histories and minimal track records in the big leagues.

By contrast, Fried is the whole package. Since breaking out as a front-of-the-rotation arm with Atlanta, Fried’s 2.81 ERA is the third-best figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, bested only by Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw. While his 23.6% strikeout rate during that time doesn’t exactly jump off the page, his 6.3% walk rate is well above average and he’s also generated grounders at an impressive 54.2% clip that only Alex Cobb, Logan Webb, and Framber Valdez have bested. The southpaw’s grounder-heavy approach should serve as an excellent complement to Cole’s power-pitching reputation and form a fearsome combo at the top of the Yankees rotation for years to come.

That combination was sufficiently intriguing to the Yankees that they were willing to go well over the top to land their man. The #6 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agent list, Fried blew away the six-year, $156MM pact we predicted for him as well as other projections around the baseball world. Today’s pact is surely exciting news for Corbin Burnes and agent Scott Boras, to whom anyone hoping to land a top-of-the-rotation free agent this winter will now have to turn with both Fried and Blake Snell off the board. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox already began preparing an offer for Burnes this afternoon. The Blue Jays, another suitor for Fried, have also expressed interest in Burnes. Burnes landed as MLBTR’s #2 free agent of the winter behind only Soto and was predicted to land a seven-year, $200MM contract at the outset of the offseason but it would hardly be a surprise to see his camp’s asking price increase in light of Fried’s deal.

Turning back to the Yankees, their projected payroll for 2025 now sits at $257MM (per RosterResource). That’s still $46MM below last year’s total. Meanwhile, their $265MM luxury tax payroll is above the first two CBT thresholds; last season it sat above the fourth and highest threshold for penalties. In other words, the Yankees should still have plenty to spend on impact free agents to try to fill the Soto-shaped hole in the roster. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that signing Fried will cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool money.

They might be hesitant to sign a second QO-rejecting free agent and therefore forfeit their third- and sixth-highest draft picks as well. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that while the Yankees signed three players who declined a QO during the 2022-23 offseason, two of them (Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo) were their own free agents and therefore did not cost the club anything beyond a hypothetical compensation pick. To find the last instance of the club signing multiple qualified free agents hailing from other teams in a single offseason, you would have to turn towards the 2013-14 offseason when the club landed Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann.

With that being said, some have compared the club’s approach to the free agent market in a post-Soto world to their approach that offseason, when they failed to re-sign star second baseman Robinson Cano. That could suggest at least some level of willingness to continue pursuing qualified free agents, particularly given the fact that they’ll receive a compensatory pick for the loss of Soto to help mitigate the losses. Christian Walker, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the other qualified free agents to which the Yankees have been connected since Soto signed in Queens.

One other avenue for improving the club signing Fried opens up is dealing a different starting pitcher, and with the club’s rotation now featuring seven starters it’s difficult to imagine the club not moving at least one if not two of their starters below Fried and Cole on the pecking order. Rodon’s weak results in the Bronx and hefty contract would appear to make a deal coming together involving him unlikely, but any of the club’s other four starters could reasonably be moved. Stroman and Cortes have frequently found their names in the rumor mill this winter as potential trade targets, though health question marks surrounding Cortes and Stroman’s lackluster 2024 campaign could hamper the potential return for either hurler. Schmidt and Gil would both surely bring back a far more interesting return but it’s unclear if the Yankees have much of an appetite for moving on from either youngster. While the club could dangling one or more of its starters in exchange for big league talent, it’s also possible that trading from the rotation could supplement the farm system and make the Yankees more comfortable losing the draft picks associated with additional qualified free agents signings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first broke the agreement and the terms of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Joel Sherman of the New York Post came through with additional details. The Post’s Jon Heyman had the specific salary breakdown.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Mets signing Juan Soto (2:35)
• The Yankees to sign Max Fried (26:05)
• The Red Sox acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox (36:10)
• The Giants signing Willy Adames (46:40)
• The Athletics signing Luis Severino (51:55)
• The Blue Jays acquiring Andrés Giménez from the Guardians who flip Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates for Luis Ortiz (1:01:25)
• The Orioles signing Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sánchez (1:14:00)
• The Tigers signing Alex Cobb (1:21:35)
• The Rangers re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and acquiring Jake Burger from the Marlins (1:25:20)

Check out our past episodes!

• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here
• Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
• The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

11:55am: One of the top free agents came off the board this week when the Yankees and Max Fried agreed to a stunning eight-year, $218MM deal. Clubs like the Blue Jays and Red Sox were also known to be in the involved but Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reports that the Athletics were “one of the most aggressive teams” in the bidding.

Many fans might roll their eyes at the idea of the A’s getting anywhere near a free agent of this caliber, which would be an understandable position to take. As of a couple of weeks ago, they had never given a free agent more than the $36MM they gave to Yoenis Céspedes back in 2012. They recently broke that record by giving Luis Severino $67MM, a huge jump for them but still relatively modest by league-wide standards and well below the deal that Fried got.

But the A’s have to spend some money somewhere. It was reported this week that the club may need to get its competitive balance tax number up to the $105MM range in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

That perhaps explains all the recent smoke about an upcoming payroll bump. MLBTR took a detailed look at the A’s last month, in a reporting that references reporting going back to January which hinted at a potential for greater spending. Since then, the A’s have ramped things up with the aforementioned Severino signing. They also reportedly made a strong offer to Sean Manaea, who remains unsigned.

It’s not surprising that they couldn’t get something done with Fried, as the pitching market has been hot. Fried and several other pitchers have exceeded the expectations from the start of the offseason. MLBTR predicted him for six years and $156MM but he blew past that, with guys like Severino, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and other hurlers also outpacing their projections.

It’s generally expected that the A’s will have to overpay to reel in any free agent. Given that the club has been rebuilding for many years and is going to be playing the next three years in a Triple-A park in West Sacramento, no free agents will have them as a first choice. Some guys will simply go where the money is best but some may need a premium before considering the unique circumstances of joining the A’s. That may have been the case with Severino, who was predicted to earn $51MM but got far more than that.

Even if the A’s were theoretically willing to marginally top the Yankees’ offer, Fried may not have taken their money. Still, it suggests that they are still a club to watch in the remainder of the offseason. RosterResource their CBT number is currently at $78MM, so they are still well south of their reported $105MM target. That means they could factor into remaining free agents such as Manaea, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta or others. Even after adding Severino, the rotation stands out as the best way to upgrade the team while also getting their spending up, with their interest in Fried and Manaea reflecting that.

What also may be notable is that the club doesn’t seem to worried about players who rejected qualifying offers. The A’s already forfeited their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft by signing Severino since he rejected a QO from the Mets. Fried and Manaea also rejected QOs, so the interest from the A’s there suggests they may be willing to forfeit another pick.

Another route could be to acquire a player making a notable salary in trade. For instance, the Yankees now have a surplus in their rotation after signing Fried and might look to move the remainder of Marcus Stroman’s contract. He will make $18MM in 2025 and there’s an $18MM player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings next year. Stroman arguably doesn’t have a great path to a rotation job in the Bronx but could serve as a solid veteran for the A’s.

Elsewhere in the Fried bidding, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that the Red Sox’ offer was “significantly” lower than the Yankees. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Sox were at $190MM over seven years and may have been able to go higher, though with deferrals. Sherman adds that the Rangers were also at $190MM over seven years, though the lack of a state tax in Texas actually made that fairly comparable to the eight years and $210MM the Yankees were offering, forcing them to go higher and symbolically top the $217MM that David Price got from the Red Sox back in 2015.

It’s perhaps not surprising that the Sox fell short given how high the number ended up going, but it does highlight the fact that they haven’t been able to achieve their main offseason goal of upgrading the rotation. They also had interest in pitchers like Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi, who have gone elsewhere. Trade talks with the White Sox about Garrett Crochet have apparently stalled. Righty Corbin Burnes is still out there but it’s been reported that they are less likely to win that bidding than the Blue Jays or Giants.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.

It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.

What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.

Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.

Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.

As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.

Soto, of course, remains the Yankees’ top focus. It seems unlikely that they’d sign him to what increasingly appears to be a $600MM+ contract and then put down more than $150MM on one of Fried or Burnes — though the Yanks certainly have the resources to do so. Still, it’s only natural for any Soto suitor to be doing homework on potential contingency plans in the event that he signs elsewhere. Loading up on high-end starting pitching and addressing the lineup in other ways would be one such possibility. (Notably, the Yankees have also recently been linked to infielder Willy Adames, who’s willing to play third base or second base with a new club.)

The Yankees already have one of the most expensive staffs in the sport. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman are owed a combined $81MM next year. Nestor Cortes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM. Righty Clarke Schmidt is projected at $3.5MM. Newly minted Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving either Stroman or Cortes this winter, both of which seem plausible. Adding someone the caliber of Fried of Burnes would make a trade elsewhere in the rotation a virtual inevitability.

Either Burnes or Fried would join Cole right atop what could be a powerhouse Yankees rotation. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers from their former clubs, meaning both would cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest draft selections, in addition to $1MM of space from their 2025 bonus pool in international free agency. For a pitcher of either caliber, that’s a small price to pay.

Fried, 31 in January, has rattled off 659 innings of 2.81 ERA ball dating back to the 2020 season. He’s third among all qualified starting pitchers in ERA in that time, trailing only Brandon Woodruff (2.76) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79). Fried has thrown nearly 200 more innings than both those pitchers. His 2024 season wasn’t his best, but only relative to his lofty standards. He made 29 starts, totaling 174 1/3 innings, and notched a tidy 3.25 ERA.

Fried doesn’t miss bats like the prototypical ace but has a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate over the past five seasons. He sports a strong 6.3% walk rate in that time and is among the game’s very best when it comes to minimizing hard contact and avoiding opponents’ barrels. He also racks up grounders at a plus rate (54.2% since 2020) — highlighted by a career-best 58.8% mark in 2024. Fried has generally been durable, although he was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that did not end up requiring surgery. He missed three starts in 2024 due to a nerve issue in that same forearm, but that’s ostensibly a different issue than the one that sidelined him in ’23.

Burnes is nearly a full year younger, having turned 30 about five weeks ago. He’s solidified himself as a true workhorse, ranking third in the majors in innings pitched over the past five seasons and sitting narrowly behind Fried with a fourth-ranked 2.88 ERA in that same span. Burnes was traded from the Brewers to the Orioles last offseason and proved himself against many of the very same AL East lineups he’d be facing as a Yankee. He made 32 starts and pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the O’s, adding eight innings of one-run excellence in Baltimore’s brief postseason foray.

Dominant as Burnes has been at times in his career, his recent work bears some resemblance to that of Fried. That’s not a bad thing, of course, but his once sky-high strikeout rate now sits at a roughly league-average rate (23.1% in 2024). Like Fried, he’s countered the diminished strikeout tendencies with sharp command and a knack for dodging hard contact. Burnes doesn’t generate grounders at the same level, but his 46.9% career mark and 2024’s 48.8% rate are both still comfortably above average.

The general thinking has been that Burnes will sign the largest contract of any pitcher this offseason. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell — who signed for five years and $182MM with the Dodgers (albeit with some deferrals) — and a year younger than Fried. His blend of durability and effectiveness is unmatched among this year’s crop of free agents. Fried, however, should command a deal well north of $100MM himself — quite possibly approaching or even exceeding the $162MM the Yankees promised to Rodon two winters ago.

The Yankees currently project for a payroll around $230MM, per RosterResource. They’re currently below the luxury tax threshold, but only nominally so. Even minor additions in free agency or on the trade market will push them into luxury territory. They’ve been a tax payor in each of the past three seasons, however, and their pursuits of various high-end free agents makes it clear they’re comfortable not only paying the tax for a fourth straight season but perhaps pushing into the highest tier of penalty again — at least for the 2025 season.

Managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that trotting out a payroll of that magnitude every season isn’t sustainable in the long run. However, that’s probably the reality for the immediate future, so long as the Yanks are paying Aaron Judge, Cole and Rodon a combined $103MM annually through 2028 (to say nothing of weighty commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Stroman and any forthcoming free agent/trade additions).

This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want to of those top free agents. Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that the Sox are continuing to keep tabs on the pitching market while engaging with Juan Soto. They did have some interest in lefty Yusei Kikuchi, though it’s unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have pulled off the gas a bit there, with some unknown club getting “very aggressive” recently.

Very early in the offseason, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said the club would be looking to the “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these pursuits all align with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long track records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young award and Snell having two of them. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but does have a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet only just transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings.

Any one of those pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, though that will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, those pitchers have been connected to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they haven’t been explicitly tied to those pitchers in rumors.

For the Sox to come away with two of those pitchers would make for quite an aggressive offseason, but that’s exactly what the club has been signaling. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club is planning to act boldly this winter, with Kennedy recently saying that paying the competitive balance tax is on the table. Many fans of the club will bring up last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how those didn’t precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and taking the division.

Spending money on free agents is one way they could go about accomplishing that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club for a payroll of $138MM, well below their $184MM spending from 2024, which was itself a drop from what they spent in the previous decade. RR pegs the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lowest threshold.

There’s plenty of room in there for two notable contracts, though successfully signing Soto would obviously completely change the calculus, given the expectation that he’ll sign a record-setting contract. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a feasible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell were projected for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those onto Boston’s payroll still wouldn’t even get them to the CBT line. They will presumably also make additions to the bullpen and maybe the position player group as well, but with a willingness to cross the line, all sorts of possibilities could be on the table for them.

Crochet would be far cheaper from a financial perspective, with the biggest cost coming in the form of prospect capital. Since he has spent so much of his career either working in relief or injured, he is down to two years of club control but hasn’t been able to raise his salary very high through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to just $2.9MM in 2025. He would be due another raise in 2026 before he’s slated to become a free agent.

Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is tremendous value, which is why Crochet figures to be very popular in trade talks. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted to, though it seems some mystery club has pulled ahead of them, per McAdam’s reporting.

For now, the Boston rotation projects to be fronted by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 mark in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix in 2025 but they are fairly unknown quantities right now as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.

Adding to that group would improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while bumping guys like Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.

The interest in Kikuchi suggests that the Sox are also open to some of mid-market options. With Kikuchi now gone, some of the other names that could be in line for somewhat similar deals include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.

The qualifying offer will likely be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one and Flaherty because he was traded midseason. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino rejected QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forfeit their second-best pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta rejected a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they stand to receive a compensation pick just ahead of the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-sign him.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

The players who rejected the offer:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

All three players stand as logical trade candidates. The hitters are headed into their final seasons of arbitration and are one year from free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Wade for a $4.7MM salary, while Yastrzemski is projected for a lofty $9.5MM sum. Doval is projected at $4.6MM for his first of three arbitration seasons. Dealing him would be selling low on a talented arm, but the righty pitched himself off the MLB roster in the second half. If he doesn’t rebound next season, he’d be a non-tender candidate going into 2026. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently reported that the Giants had received interest from multiple teams on Doval.

Of the two hitters, Wade would have greater appeal. The 30-year-old first baseman is more affordable than Yastrzemski and gets on base much more consistently. Wade is coming off a .260/.380/.381 showing through 401 plate appearances. He has a .258/.376/.401 slash over the past two seasons. The lefty-hitting Wade has posted plus OBP marks against left-handed and righty pitching alike.

Few players draw more walks or get on base as consistently. While there’s value in that plate discipline, Wade doesn’t have the power associated with most first basemen. He hasn’t topped 18 home runs in a season and hit just eight longballs this year. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that some within the organization view first base as an area for upgrade. They’d presumably look for a more traditional power bat.

It’s a solid free agent class for first basemen. Pete Alonso and Christian Walker headline the group. They’d certainly add power, but both players would require draft pick and international signing bonus forfeitures as qualifying offer recipients. Alonso and Walker are on track for multi-year deals — potentially five or six years in Alonso’s case — which doesn’t fit well for San Francisco. The Giants’ top prospect, Bryce Eldridge, reached Triple-A before his 20th birthday and could get to the majors by the end of next season. Signing one of Alonso or Walker would lock up designated hitter once Eldridge arrives.

If San Francisco wanted a short-term stopgap, Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Santana are one-year options. Goldschmidt is coming off a middling offensive season. Santana had a nice year for the Twins but has some similarities to Wade as a first baseman without massive power. Josh Naylor, Ryan Mountcastle, Nathaniel Lowe and Yandy Díaz are potential trade candidates who are down to their final year or two of club control.

The Pirates, Astros, Yankees, Reds and Nationals are some of the teams that could gauge Wade’s availability. San Francisco should be able to net a mid-level prospect if they move him. They might have a harder time matching up on a Yastrzemski deal. The left-handed outfielder could just as easily be a non-tender candidate before next Friday’s deadline.

Yastrzemski hit 18 homers with a .231/.302/.437 slash through 474 plate appearances this year. It was the fourth straight season in which he was around league average offensively. He grades as a solid right field defender but is stretched in center. Yastrzemski is a reasonably productive player, but there might not be much of a market for an arbitration salary pushing $10MM in his age-34 season. The Giants wouldn’t get much in return if they did find a team willing to tender him a contract.

Trading or non-tendering Wade and Yastrzemski would knock around $14MM off next year’s payroll projection. A Doval trade could push that to roughly $19MM. Baggarly reported last week that the Giants planned to reduce payroll after exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. They can do that without trading any of their arbitration-eligible players. RosterResource calculates their tax number (including arbitration estimates) around $183MM, nearly $60MM shy of this year’s spending level. A few trades would create more room for free agent strikes for a shortstop and potentially top-end starting pitching.

At shortstop, San Francisco has already been connected to Ha-Seong Kim and is one of the best on-paper fits for Willy Adames. They haven’t been closely connected to any pitchers, though Passan suggests they’re likely to be in the mix for Max Fried. San Francisco has been loosely floated as a potential suitor for Juan Soto, but Jayson Stark of the Athletic reports (on X) that they’re not among the teams that currently have a meeting scheduled with the market’s top free agent.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.

What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.

Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.

With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.

Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.