That quote is in response to some previous comments made by Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred about a month ago. “In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive,” Manfred said to Evan Drellich of The Athletic last month. “There is leverage associated with an offseason lockout and the process of collective bargaining under the [National Labor Relations Act] works based on leverage. The great thing about offseason lockouts is the leverage that exists gets applied between the bargaining parties.” He also praised a lockout as being preferable to in-season negotiations, saying that it’s “like using a .22 (caliber firearm), as opposed to a shotgun or a nuclear weapon.”

Clark disagreed in response at that time. “Players know from first-hand experience that a lockout is neither routine nor positive,” Clark said. “It’s a weapon, plain and simple, implemented to pressure players and their families by taking away a player’s ability to work.”

Relations between the league and the union have been combative in recent years and the current collective bargaining agreement was agreed to after a lockout which lasted several months. The previous CBA expired on December 1 of 2021 and the league instituted a lockout that very night. The negotiations continued into the spring, with a new agreement getting done on March 10 of 2022. That led to a rushed ramp-up to the 2022 season, though a full 162-game schedule was still completed via some scheduled doubleheaders.

Given that the relations between the two sides haven’t markedly improved, many in the baseball world expect another lockout to follow the expiration of the current CBA. Manfred’s comments only added to that suspicion and it seems Clark and the union are operating under that assumption.

There are many issues that will need to be discussed between now and then. There will be the ever-present topics of player compensation and revenue sharing, as well as more complex issues such as an international draft. The two sides are free to discuss these issues at any time but comments from Manfred make it seem unlikely that any progress will be made well in advance.

“I’m one that likes to bargain early, but we’re still two years away, even if you’re thinking you want to bargain early,” Manfred said about a month ago. “We got time on that front. And I think the time is particularly important right now, because we do have things going on in terms of the economics of the game — local media being the principal one — that the longer we wait, the more it evolves, the better decisions we’re going to make.”

From the players’ side, they seem to be assuming that Manfred is trying to generate leverage through the press. “I know that a lot of what Rob Manfred says in the media is posturing,” Giants third baseman Matt Chapman said recently to John Shea of the San Francisco Standard. “They’re all negotiating tactics. He tries to create his narrative.”

One topic that usually comes up in CBA discussions is a salary cap, though the MLBPA has always considered that a nonstarter. Evan Drellich of The Athletic recently reported that the owners are mulling a push for a cap when the next round of CBA talks gets going in earnest. David Rubenstein, principal owner of the Orioles, spoke publicly in favor of a cap in January. Clark, however, reiterated that the union has no desire to agree to such a measure.

“We remain of the mind, as we have over the last 50 or 60 years, that the industry does not need it,” Clark said today to Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun. “It is not necessary. Whether it’s from a ‘competitive balance’ standpoint, or whether it’s from the ability of the industry to continue to grow and move forward, all of those things have happened in the absence of [a salary cap] and our game has thrived as a result.”

Many fans view a salary cap as the simplest way to combat certain inequities in baseball. That’s despite the fact that the sport hasn’t had recent dynastic runs like other leagues. MLB hasn’t seen a repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. There are huge gaps in terms of spending, with the Dodgers projected by RosterResource to have a $390MM payroll this year with some other clubs like the Marlins are down near $70MM. But despite that massive gap, those two clubs have the same number of World Series trophies over the past 35 years.

Still, there are fans of small-market clubs who feel overpowered when it comes to competitive balance. “There are ways of addressing the system that aren’t salary or cap related or require the restrictions of player salaries as the answer to every one of these questions,” Clark said, per Bloom. Presumably, Clark was referring to things like the fact that smaller-market clubs get extra picks in the draft via the competitive balance round as well as larger pools of bonus money to spend on international players, or perhaps the revenue-sharing agreements which could always be altered.  Those measures have helped clubs like the Rays, Guardians and Brewers stay consistently competitive despite far less spending capacity than some of their fellow clubs.

The larger point is that MLB is in fairly healthy shape overall. Maury Brown of Forbes recently reported that the league’s revenues hit a record $12.1 billion in 2024, without even accounting for alternate revenue streams such as from commercial real estate projects connected to ballparks. Various metrics have suggested the implementation of the pitch clock has helped baseball’s popularity more generally, in terms of ticket sales and TV ratings. Clark seemed to reference that situation in comments relayed by Weyrich today, suggesting that the proposed cap is less about competitive balance and more about increasing profits for owners.

“At this point in time, despite the fact that there was an announcement that the industry itself is doing better than it ever has, despite the fact that there was an announcement that there’s more viewership and more attendance than it has been in the last 10 or so years, you’re hearing the rhetoric around a salary cap because there’s an interest in moving more of that revenue from one side of the equation to the other.”

While Adames could play shortstop on Opening Day, that’s not the case with Kim. He underwent surgery to repair a labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. There’s still not a ton of clarity on when he’s expected back in game action. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly taken an optimistic stance on the infielder’s recovery. Boras said at last month’s GM Meetings that Kim could be ready early in the season — potentially before the end of April. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has previously suggested the rehab could carry into “May, June, July,” a much more nebulous timeline.

Whichever team signs Kim will need a stopgap shortstop for at least a few weeks, potentially months. For the Giants, that could be Matt Chapman. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the star third baseman told team officials he’d be willing to play shortstop early in the year while Kim recovers. According to Rosenthal, that’s one of various possibilities the team is considering.

That’d be a creative solution. It’s not an outlandish one. Chapman is one of the sport’s best defensive third basemen. He’s a five-time Gold Glove winner. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a strong defender in every season of his career. Chapman tied Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz for the league lead among third basemen in Outs Above Average this year. He’s fifth at the position by that metric across the past three seasons.

Chapman, who has 10 career innings at shortstop, has plenty of arm strength. He certainly has the hands for the position. The only question is whether he’d have enough lateral quickness to be a plus in the middle of the diamond, but he could probably at least play a competent shortstop for a month or two.

Sliding Chapman to shortstop would open a short-term hole at third base. Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt and David Villar are among the options for work there. Aside from Villar, everyone from that group has some shortstop experience as well. None seems like a long-term answer. Wisely was primarily a second baseman in the minors, while Schmitt has spent most of his career at third base. Luciano has come up as a shortstop but was a disaster defensively in a limited MLB look. His long-term future is probably in the corner outfield.

Fitzgerald got the majority of the shortstop reps late in the season. He’d probably start there if the Giants came up empty in their pursuit. While he hit well enough to earn everyday playing time, the Giants seem to prefer him elsewhere. Posey suggested last month that Fitzgerald could be a second baseman. He also implied they were hopeful they could avoid bouncing him around the diamond as much next season.

“Tyler Fitzgerald did a great job at short last year. I think he has value and in multiple spots on the field,” Posey said at the GM Meetings (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “I do think it’s hard to play multiple spots at the same time during the season. Whether he’d be better suited to play second base long-term is a discussion we’re having.“

National League winners….

• Catcher: Patrick Bailey (1st Gold Glove)…..Finalists: Gabriel Moreno, Will Smith
• First base: Christian Walker (3rd)…..Finalists: Bryce Harper, Matt Olson
• Second base: Brice Turang (1st)…..Finalists: Ketel Marte, Bryson Stott
• Third base: Matt Chapman, (5th)…..Finalists: Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon
• Shortstop: Ezequiel Tovar (1st)…..Finalists: Dansby Swanson, Masyn Winn
• Left field: Ian Happ (3rd)…..Finalists: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brandon Marsh
• Center field: Brenton Doyle (2nd)…..Finalists: Blake Perkins, Jacob Young
• Right field: Sal Frelick (1st)…..Finalists: Jake McCarthy, Mike Yastrzemski
• Pitcher: Chris Sale (1st)…..Finalists: Luis Severino, Zack Wheeler
• Utility: Jared Triolo (1st)…..Finalists: Brendan Donovan, Enrique Hernandez

American League winners….

• Catcher: Cal Raleigh (1st)…..Finalists: Freddy Fermin, Jake Rogers
• First base: Carlos Santana (1st)…..Finalists: Nathaniel Lowe, Ryan Mountcastle
• Second base: Andres Gimenez (3rd)…..Finalists: Nicky Lopez, Marcus Semien
• Third base: Alex Bregman (1st)…..Finalists: Ernie Clement, Jose Ramirez
• Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. (1st)…..Finalists: Brayan Rocchio, Anthony Volpe
• Left field: Steven Kwan (3rd)…..Finalists: Colton Cowser, Alex Verdugo
• Center field: Daulton Varsho (1st)…..Finalists: Jarren Duran, Jake Meyers
• Right field: Wilyer Abreu (1st)…..Finalists: Jo Adell, Juan Soto
• Pitcher: Seth Lugo (1st)…..Finalists: Griffin Canning, Cole Ragans
• Utility: Dylan Moore (1st)…..Finalists: Willi Castro, Mauricio Dubon

This seemed to suggest that the club’s ownership group was losing faith in Zaidi as its top baseball decision maker. Today, a report from John Shea and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle frames the negotiations differently. Per the report, which readers are encouraged to check out in full, Zaidi has been in the hospital a couple of times lately with an undisclosed medical issue, conducting business from there, and the involvement from other staff members was fairly normal in the context of his health-related absences. Today’s report from the Chronicle suggests that the previous reporting from The Athletic overstated Posey’s role in the whole affair. Both Boras and Zaidi spoke to the Chronicle and admitted that Posey was involved, which they both welcomed, but they pushed back on the idea that this was some kind of subterfuge operation.

“Any report that suggests that Farhan and I did not negotiate the financial package is inaccurate,” Boras told the Chronicle. “The years and guarantee totals presented to Matt were a product of a two-week negotiation conducted with Farhan and me while he was in and out of the hospital. As with most long-term contracts, once you have agreement on financial terms, there are ancillary contract terms – guarantee language, no-trade provisions, charitable donations, signing bonus and salary payment structure – that are commonly completed by other team officials. Once the ancillary terms were completed, Farhan and I exchanged a letter of agreement Monday afternoon (Sept. 2), and the agreement was concluded.” Zaidi framed things similarly.

Despite the different picture of the negotiations, the report does acknowledge that Zaidi appears to be on the hot seat. Per the Chronicle, the club’s board of directors wants to wait for the final weeks of the season to play out before deciding on Zaidi’s future. If his job security is tied to the Giants’ on-field performance, he may indeed be in trouble. They have gone 5-9 in September, bringing their season-long record down to 73-78. The remaining schedule is fairly strong. They play the Orioles twice more before three games each against the Royals, Diamondbacks and Cardinals.

There has been plenty of smoke around Zaidi and the front office lately, on the heels of a few years of tepid results. The club went 107-55 under his watch in 2021 but that record fell to 81-81 in 2022, then 79-83 last year and might be even lower this year. A week ago, a report from Shea revealed that the contracts of Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin are only guaranteed through 2025 and not 2026, as previously believed. Both contracts have some sort of club option structure for 2026 but nothing is locked in and the details of the options aren’t publicly known. That was followed by the report from The Athletic suggesting that the ownership group grew frustrated by a lack of progress in the Chapman talks and dispatched Posey to take the reins.

Today’s report frames things in a way that’s less detrimental to Zaidi but still doesn’t back away from the notion that he is in trouble. Per Shea and Slusser today, the owners will do whatever they think is best for the team, regardless of Zaidi’s contract situation and are “taking a hard look” at him. Whether all this smoke is indicative of a firing is something that will perhaps be revealed in the coming weeks and months.

Posey personally taking on such a prominent role in a franchise-altering negotiation is a potentially damning indictment on Zaidi’s status within the organization. The sixth-year president of baseball operations signed an extension just last year, but what was originally reported as a three-year contract has since been revealed to be a two-year contract covering the 2024-25 seasons and containing what’s effectively a club option for the 2026 season.

It’s not clear that the pair of reports, which surfaced within a week of one another, is evidence that Zaidi is on the proverbial hot seat. At the same time, it seems fair to infer — particularly in light of the revelation regarding his contract — that he’s not on quite as steady ground as it may have seemed even a few weeks ago. Giants ownership has publicly backed Zaidi whenever given the opportunity, but Posey’s prominent role in Chapman’s extension only raises questions of potential dissatisfaction. The Giants won’t be reaching the postseason this year, and they’re tracking toward what would be a fifth losing season in six under Zaidi’s tenure.

While the end result is the same regardless of who’s negotiating the contract, the journey to that agreement is notable. Maybe this was just a one-off where the board felt Posey, as a former player, could appeal directly to a player he’s gotten to know over the course of the current season. If things have reached the point where ownership has genuinely lost faith in Zaidi’s vision and/or his ability to close deals, that would be a far more alarming development and likely the portent for a change of note in the front office.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Giants have signed plenty of free agents under Zaidi’s watch (MLBTR Contract Tracker link). The majority have been short-term pacts, however. The Giants let successfully rehabilitated pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon walk rather than pay market price for either pitcher. (The latter decision seems wise; the former is regrettable.) They pursued Bryce Harper in free agency but reportedly stopped just $20MM or so short of Harper’s eventual contract with the Phillies. A pursuit of Aaron Judge ultimately only served to drive up the price for the Yankees, who kept their homegrown star. A massive 13-year deal with Carlos Correa was scuttled when the Giants raised concerns about Correa’s physical.

Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (six years, $113MM) is the only free agent the Giants have signed for more than Jordan Hicks’ four years or more than Blake Snell’s $62MM guarantee. The aversion to long-term deals has certainly kept the Giants’ payroll outlook clean, but the results on the lower-cost free agent deals made have frequently failed to pan out. Mitch Haniger and Jorge Soler both signed three-year deals and were both dumped in salary-driven trades before the second season of said contracts commenced. Tommy La Stella was released two years into a three-year contract. The Giants dumped the final season of Anthony DeSclafani’s three-year deal on the Mariners along with Haniger. The second season of Ross Stripling’s two-year deal was sent to the A’s in a salary dump deal. Michael Conforto has been a roughly league-average bat over the life of his two-year, $36MM deal. Smaller-scale two-year deals for Luke Jackson (dumped along with Soler) and Tom Murphy have backfired.

Zaidi undoubtedly built plenty of goodwill with home-run signings of Gausman, Drew Smyly, Derek Holland and (the first time) DeSclafani. Low-cost pickups of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf, Donovan Solano and Thairo Estrada (among others) have also been unmitigated successes. But many of those early success stories have since moved on, while others have seen their effectiveness fade. And the recent low-cost acquisitions haven’t had the same level of impact on the organization, while the farm has seen several top prospects stall out.

All of that is vital context when trying to ascertain what the Chapman report signals for Zaidi and his future with the organization. Zaidi himself downplayed the scenario to Baggarly, suggesting he and ownership worked “in sync” and telling Baggarly that ownership involvement is to be expected on a contract of this magnitude. That’s true, broadly speaking, though ownership circumventing both the front office and the player agent to hammer out a deal is not typical business.

Given the Giants’ likely interest in keeping Snell — another Boras client — the manner in which the Chapman deal came together is all the more intriguing. The Boras Corporation also represents a significant number of free agents this offseason: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, J.D. Martinez, Nick Martinez, Sean Manaea and Tyler O’Neill are among the most notable Boras clients that could be on the market this winter (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database).

Chapman, 31, signed with the Giants on a three-year deal worth $54MM with opt outs after each season over the offseason when his market didn’t develop to expected levels last winter. In the months since then, it’s become apparent that the first of those opt-out opportunities would be exercised as the infielder has largely quelled his doubters with his best season in half a decade. His first season in a Giants uniform has seen him post a strong .247/.343/.445 slash line, good for a 118 wRC+, in 136 games. In addition to a strong season at the plate, he’s also put together his most impressive defensive season in years with +7 OAA and +13 DRS, his best showing in either metric since 2021.

With Chapman poised to return to free agency in search of a bigger contract elsewhere, the Giants have now made sure that he’ll remain with the club for the foreseeable future. The third baseman’s deal figures to keep him in San Francisco through the end of his age-37 season, and matches the six-year, $150MM prediction we at MLBTR made regarding Chapman’s contract ahead of the 2023-24 offseason almost exactly. The contract is representative of the potential upside that players who take opt-out laden deals can find if their initial foray into free agency doesn’t go according to plan; Chapman now figures to ultimately walk away from his time with the Giants having pocketed $169MM over seven years, though of course this outcome required not only a healthy season from the 31-year-old but his best season overall since 2019.

By staying in San Francisco long-term, Chapman ensures that he will spend the majority of his playing career in the Bay Area. The longtime Athletic was selected 25th overall by Oakland in the 2014 draft and made his debut with the club back in 2017.  He’d ultimately spend the first five seasons of his career in an A’s uniform, earning three Gold Glove awards, finishing in the top 10 of AL MVP voting twice, and making his first and so far only career All-Star game during that time. When the A’s began a total rebuild following the 2021 season, however, he was shipped to Toronto just before the 2022 campaign began and spend two years in Toronto. Now that Chapman is on a long-term deal with the Bay Area’s other MLB team, one of the stars of the Athletics’ final playoff team in Oakland will outlast the team itself in the community as the club stands poised to relocate following the 2024 campaign.

As for the Giants, the deal represents the second largest financial outlay in the club’s history and is dwarfed only by Buster Posey’s $166.5MM guarantee in his early-career extension with the team. By keeping Chapman in the fold, San Francisco locks up a potential cornerstone after failing in multiple well-documented pursuits of star players in recent years, ranging from Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton to more recent pursuits of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. While Chapman doesn’t have the star power of any of those players, he’s a reliable defender and source of power at third base who offers a solid floor of 3 WAR on an annual basis, with upside much higher than that when he’s at his best.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Chapman’s reliability could decline on both sides of the ball as he enters his mid 30’s, a particularly notable caveat given the fact that he’ll play next season at 32 years old. At the same time, the deal makes Chapman the latest long-term piece put into place by a Giants club that has seemed somewhat listless in recent years as they search for an identity and struggle to contend in the era following the departures of Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford. Alongside Chapman, the club has Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison locked into the rotation, Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos in the outfield, and Patrick Bailey behind the plate through at least the end of the 2028 campaign. That’s a core of talent that could compete for a playoff spot in the coming years if properly supplemented, which is a clear step in the right direction for a franchise that appears to be trending towards its third consecutive sub-.500 finish this year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a couple weeks ago that San Francisco was hopeful of retaining the star third baseman on a new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as much to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, telling her that the sides have had some discussions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi framed things similarly, telling Slusser the parties have “had conversations” and “active dialogue” on a long-term arrangement.

That’s rather vague terminology that certainly doesn’t suggest anything is imminent. It’s nevertheless confirmation there’s some amount of mutual interest in keeping Chapman in San Francisco. He’s a California native who has a longstanding relationship with skipper Bob Melvin dating back to their time in Oakland.

Chapman hasn’t had any problem acclimating to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his customarily strong defensive grades into tonight’s game in Seattle. He’s at 20+ homers for the fifth time in his career with a strong 11% walk percentage. Chapman’s 24.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the league mark but would be his lowest rate since 2019. It’s very good all-around production despite a slow start. Chapman limped to a .266 on-base percentage through the end of April. He has been one of the most productive infielders in the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers dating back to May 1.

It’s the inverse pattern to Chapman’s 2023 campaign. He was arguably the best player in the majors through the season’s first month last year. His offensive numbers plummeted after that and he hit the market with something of a down-arrow trajectory. Chapman had an easy call to decline a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, but he and his camp at the Boras Corporation did not find the money they were seeking.  It wasn’t until the beginning of March that he inked a $54MM guarantee with multiple opt-outs.

Between a signing bonus, his salary, and a buyout (assuming he opts out), Chapman is making $20MM this year. That’s about what he’d have made if he’d taken the QO from Toronto — although the extra two years present more long-term security than the qualifying offer would have provided.

Chapman will presumably try again to land a deal that pushes into nine figures. He’ll play almost all of next season at age 32. It’s difficult but not impossible to pull a $100MM+ deal at that age. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been four nine-figure deals within the last decade for hitters who were 32 or older. Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact led the way among free agent contracts. Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new money on five-year terms.

Those players were all better hitters than Chapman has been. As a plus defender at third base, he provides more value on that side of the ball than all of them, aside from maybe Machado. Teams could be wary about paying for defense into a player’s mid-30s.

A five-year term for Chapman would run through his age-36 season. That’s the point through which Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon were paid on seven-year contracts (both of which have been disasters for the team). Chapman certainly isn’t going to approach Rendon’s $35MM annual salary. Bryant’s $26MM AAV is a more realistic target, albeit on a what’d likely be a four- or five-year term instead of seven.

Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu each signed through age-37 as free agent third basemen. Both guarantees checked in just south of $100MM. Those contracts are a few years old and were both signed after the player declined a qualifying offer, thereby attaching draft compensation. The Giants cannot make Chapman a QO — the CBA prevents a player from receiving more than one in his career — so he’d hit the market entirely unencumbered. Barring some kind of hometown discount, Chapman presumably wouldn’t be interested in forgoing a free agent trip for less than the Donaldson and LeMahieu guarantees.

Alex Bregman leads the impending free agent class at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 option and the class drops off dramatically from there. Last winter’s group was even shallower. Assuming one considers Cody Bellinger primarily an outfielder rather than a first baseman, Chapman’s $54MM guarantee led all infielders.

As Slusser observes, a Chapman extension may need to be San Francisco’s biggest investment under this front office. The Giants have only signed one nine-figure deal since they hired Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations during the 2018-19 offseason: last winter’s six-year, $113MM pact for 25-year-old center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. They’ve taken plenty of bigger swings and were a failed physical away from signing Carlos Correa for $350MM, but they’ve yet to actually land a domestic free agent on a long-term deal. They’ve been much more amenable to shorter-term pickups with opt-outs for players whose markets didn’t develop as they’d hoped (e.g. Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Blake Snell, Chapman).

The Giants have around $132MM in guaranteed money for next season. Expected opt-outs for Snell and Chapman would knock that down to roughly $85MM. Lee, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray (assuming he doesn’t opt out this year) and Jordan Hicks are the only players signed beyond next year. That doesn’t include arbitration projections for Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Camilo Doval. Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential trade or non-tender candidates. The Giants should have a good amount of payroll flexibility even if they retain everyone from their arbitration group.

Snell has garnered more attention recently, which is understandable on the heels of a 15-strikeout performance that was immediately followed by a no-hitter in Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But while Snell draws headlines, Chapman continues to more quietly post excellent numbers. Both players look like locks to opt out at season’s end right now, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants have interest in signing Chapman to a long-term deal that’d keep him in San Francisco.

For the 31-year-old Chapman, the 2024 season has played out in almost inverse fashion to his 2023 campaign. Last year, Chapman roared out of the gates with a Ruthian start to his season, hitting .384/.465/.687 through the end of April. He was never going to sustain that level of production, but the extent to which his bat cratered was nonetheless alarming. The two-time Platinum Glove winner hit just .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. A hand injury suffered in August likely contributed to a truly dismal finish, but even leading up to that injury, Chapman had been a below-average hitter for a stretch of more than three months.

That cold snap carried over into the 2024 season, as Chapman hit just .222/.266/.385 through the end of April. Since then, however, he’s turned his season around. In 367 plate appearances since May 1, Chapman is touting a .257/.360/.473 batting line. He’s homered 15 times, walked at an impressive 13.1% clip and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s 28.4% down to 24.3% in that stretch. (If you truly want to cherry-pick, Chapman is slashing .275/.382/.519 since May 17.)

It’s been an odd stretch for Chapman, who from May 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024 looked the part of a hitter very much on the decline. He’s now spent more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances distancing himself from that slump, however — and he’s done so while playing his customary brand of standout defense. Between his renaissance at the plate and his always excellent glovework, Chapman has been worth 5.3 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) and 3.8 WAR, per FanGraphs. The discrepancy stems primarily from bWAR using Defensive Runs Saved in its equation (which credits Chapman as an elite defender), whereas fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (which feel he’s been “merely” above-average). Regardless of one’s preferred version of the stat, Chapman has graded out as a star-caliber player this season. If he continues this pace, he’ll likely garner some down-ballot MVP votes.

Given the manner in which his season has played out, it’s not all that surprising to hear the Giants have interest in keeping him around. It can’t hurt that San Francisco brass was quite familiar with Chapman even before he signed there. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was an assistant general manager with the A’s in 2014 when they selected Chapman with the 25th overall pick in the draft. Skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman in Oakland from 2017-21.

Many of the roadblocks that prevented Chapman from landing the nine-figure deal most anticipated last year still persist. He’s 31 years old and will turn 32 next April. There’s minimal precedent for position players at that age signing for $100MM+. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado are the only hitters in the past decade to sign contracts of that magnitude beginning in their age-32 season (or later). Of course, rare precedent doesn’t rule out the possibility — and there’s also nothing yet suggesting that Chapman is dead set on a nine-figure deal (though given the strength of his season it certainly seems like a likely goal for Chapman and agent Scott Boras).

The Giants have just under $85MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season (not counting the buyout on Chapman’s $18MM option). That’d jump to more than $135MM if each of Snell ($30MM), Chapman ($18MM) and Wilmer Flores ($3.5MM) picked up their player options. Flores seems likely to do so, but he could be the only one if Snell and Chapman stay healthy. Arbitration raises will be owed to Mike Yastrzemski (earning $7.9MM this year), LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3.5MM in ’24), Tyler Rogers ($3.2MM), Thairo Estrada ($4.7MM) and first-time-eligible closer Camilo Doval, regardless of the fact he was optioned to the minors tonight.  No one from that group is going to push the Giants into uncharted payroll territory, and Estrada’s not guaranteed to be tendered a contract in light of his injuries and offensive struggles.

Looking further down the road, the only players on the books beyond the 2025 season are Robbie Ray (signed through 2026), Jordan Hicks (through 2027), Logan Webb (through 2028) and Jung Hoo Lee (through 2029). Ray can opt out after the current season (unlikely at the moment), while Lee can opt out after 2027 (although it’s far too soon to tell whether that’s realistic). Regardless of how those opt-outs play out, the Giants are just over $80MM in terms of guaranteed payroll in each of the next two seasons and around $60MM in 2026 and $45MM in 2027. There’s ample room on the payroll to factor in a long-term arrangement for Chapman, if the two sides can come to terms on a price point that’s agreeable for all parties.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

• Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

• Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

• Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

• Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

• Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

• Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

• Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

• Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

• Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

• Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

• Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

• Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

• Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

• Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

• Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

• Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

• Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

• Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

• Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

• Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Oswald Peraza, of course, is ostensibly already slated to be New York’s backup infielder and backup shortstop in particular.  However, the Yankees might prefer to continue Peraza’s development by giving him everyday work at Triple-A rather than more a sporadic part-time role in the Show.  There is also the question of Peraza’s health, as a right shoulder issue has been bothering the infielder for the last two weeks.  Manager Aaron Boone said the Yankees don’t consider the injury to be overly serious for now, though Peraza is undergoing testing to determine the nature of the problem.

More from around the AL East…

• The Blue Jays offered Matt Chapman a two-year contract before he signed with the Giants, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Given how long Chapman lingered on the market, it isn’t surprising that the Jays made a late bid to gauge his interest in a return to Toronto, even if Chapman’s “first choice” as per Heyman was reuniting with his old manager Bob Melvin in San Francisco.  It can probably be assumed that the Blue Jays’ offer contained a player opt-out after the 2024 season, given how Chapman’s eventual three-year deal with the Giants has opt-outs after each of the first two years, plus both sides have a mutual option for the 2027 season.  Re-installing Chapman at third base would’ve solidified the Jays’ infield situation, even if it would’ve made for a crowded mix of players fighting for regular work at second base and in backup roles.  Had Chapman re-signed, Justin Turner would’ve been limited to first base and DH at-bats, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal all would’ve been vying to be the right-handed hitting side of a second base platoon with Cavan Biggio.
• Virtually all of Kolten Wong’s Major League experience has come as a second baseman, though his appearance at third base in yesterday’s Grapefruit League game marked his first time at the hot corner since college, Wong told MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters.  “That’s just how the trend is going nowadays, is being versatile,” Wong said, and he is more than happy to shift positions if it means winning a job on the Orioles’ roster.  Wong is signed a minor league deal with Baltimore and is looking to rebound after a dismal 2023 season, though he’ll be in for a tough competition on a roster loaded with young infield talent and a couple of more established veterans in Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias.
• David Rubenstein’s impending purchase of the Orioles took another step towards completion yesterday when the league’s ownership committee approved the sale.  (ESPN’s Jeff Passan was among those to report on the news.)  Rubenstein will now need approval from the eight-man executive council, and then receive at least 23 of the votes from all 30 ownership groups in order for the sale to be completely finalized.  The process isn’t expected to run into any roadblocks, so the sale could be official in April.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
• Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
• What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
• What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
• Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
• Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
• Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
• Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
• Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
• What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
• What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
• Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
• What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
• The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
• Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

• How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
• Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
• Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025.  If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached.  Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.

MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.

He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.

Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.

The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.

Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.

The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.

After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.

Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.

That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.

Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.

He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.

Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.

San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.

A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.

He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.

It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.

The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.

It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.

If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.

Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.

Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency.  Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years.  Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons.  Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign.  Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.

However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop.  The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason.  He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation).  While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.

From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point.  If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage.  RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.

It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag.  Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.

Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session.  An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time.  According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”

While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster.  After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings.  Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.

Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot.  Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino.  Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract.  Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.

Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work.  The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider.  “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated.  But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.

Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.

The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.

Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.

A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.

While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.

The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.

Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.

Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.

Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.

The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.