“I’m certainly open to play,” Carpenter said. “I like this role. I think considering the role, I feel like I’ve done well in it, and I also think, more importantly, I understand the bigger picture of it. I’d be open to doing it again.”

Carpenter signed a one-year deal with the Cards for 2024, his age-38 season. He began the winter under contract to the Padres, triggering a $5.5MM player option. San Diego traded him to Atlanta alongside Ray Kerr and some cash considerations for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell, but mostly to get rid of some money. Atlanta took on a chunk of that salary to get Kerr in that deal, quickly releasing Carpenter, which allowed the Cards to sign him for the league minimum.

Around a couple of injured list stints, one for a right oblique strain and the other for a lower back strain, Carpenter has stepped to the plate 146 times in 54 appearances this year. He has struck out 31.5% of the time and drawn walks at a 9.6% clip. That walk rate is above league average but both of those rates are career worsts for Carpenter personally. He has hit four home runs and his .236/.317/.378 batting line leads to a 97 wRC+, indicating he has been just a bit below league average overall.

Most of that has come as a designated hitter or pinch hitter. His defensive contributions for the year have consisted of eight innings at first base, one at second base and three at third. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference grade his season just barely below replacement level.

Strictly looking at the on-field performance, there may not be a ton of interest there. He was a strong player for the Cardinals from 2012 to 2018 but hasn’t been above average at the plate for a lengthy stretch since then. After worsening struggles from 2019 to 2021, he tried revamping his swing and re-emerged with a vengeance in 2022. He put up a monster line of .305/.412/.727 with the Yankees that year, though in only 47 games. He didn’t get his shot until a couple of months into the season and then had his comeback shortened by injury. The Padres believed in the bounceback enough to give him a two-year deal, including the aforementioned player option, but the first year didn’t go well and they sent him packing after that.

Carpenter can perhaps bring other elements to the table in a less tangible fashion, serving as a mentor and clubhouse leader. But given his numbers, he may be limited to minor league offers or perhaps a veteran sage role on a rebuilding club.

“Going to cross that bridge when we get there,” Carpenter said to Goold of his offseason market. “I’m open to playing. We’ll see what that looks like. I’m open to doing this role again. I’m open to just a lot of things. We’ll see.”

Crawford, 37, signed with the Cardinals in the offseason, a one-year deal with a modest $2MM salary. It seemed as though he was a bit of veteran insurance for rookie Masyn Winn, who the club was planning to have as their everyday shortstop. That was a sensible move at the time, as Winn had just 37 games of major league experience coming into the year and hit just .172/.230/.238 in those.

But here in 2024, Winn has delivered on his prospect hype. He has 11 home runs and a slash of .274/.324/.419, which translates to a wRC+ of 108. His glovework has led to 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 3 Outs Above Average at shortstop, and he has also stolen 10 bases. His all-around contributions have led to FanGraphs crediting him with 2.8 wins above replacement, which is third among National League rookies, just behind Jackson Merrill and Tyler Fitzgerald.

As Winn has been doing all of that, Crawford has hardly been used. Though he has been on the active roster all season, he has only appeared in 29 games and has only been sent to the plate 80 times. In that sporadic playing time, he has struck out at an uncharacteristic 32.5% rate and slashed .169/.263/.282 for a wRC+ 58. Perhaps it was difficult for Crawford to get into a groove with so little time in the lineup, but that rough performance is actually not too far off from last year, when he hit .194/.273/.314 for the Giants and produced a 62 wRC+.

Regardless of the cause, that performance from Crawford and the emergence of Winn have gotten him bumped off the roster. That will likely leave utility player Brendan Donovan as the Cardinals’ backup for Winn at the shortstop position. Perhaps Baker can give a jolt to the lineup, as he has hit 32 home runs in Triple-A this year and walked at a 14.8% clip.

For Crawford, rather than put him on waivers and be forced to go wherever he’s claimed, the Cards have given him a bit of agency over his next steps by releasing him instead. His brief time in St. Louis will seemingly be destined to a future bit of esoteric trivia for the Giants’ legend.

Any team could now sign Crawford for the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cardinals pay. The level of interest is likely tempered by his recent string of poor results, but he also has a lengthy track record. Since debuting with the Giants back in 2011, he has just under 1700 games of major league experience with roughly league average offense and very strong defensive grades. In the offseason, he seemed to at least give some thought to retiring before getting the deal with the Cards, which could perhaps be on the table again if he doesn’t get a tempting opportunity in the coming weeks.

As for Walker, this is the latest in his up-and-down treatment from the Cards. He was recalled just over a week ago with Carpenter landing on the IL and is now back to Memphis after getting one hit in 12 plate appearances while Carpenter was out.

Last year, he rode a wave of excitement to the club’s 2023 Opening Day roster but his performance was inconsistent throughout the year. Though he was optioned for a spell last summer, he was recalled and hit .277/.346/.455 from the start of June to the end of the year, leading to a 119 wRC+.

But here in 2024, he struggled out of the gate and was optioned before the end of April. His .257/.321/.426 batting line in Triple-A this year leads to a subpar 92 wRC+ but he still got recalled to cover for Carpenter briefly.

It’s a strange spot for him to be in as he is still looking to properly break through and cement himself at the major league level but there’s a bit of a ticking clock now. Because he burst onto the roster last year but has been optioned in two straight seasons, he’ll have just one option remaining after this one even though he’s only 22 years old. If he exhausts his final option next year, he could perhaps be out of options by 2026, which will be just his age-24 season.

Walker made his big league debut as a 20-year-old in 2023 and did so to considerable fanfare. The 2020 first-rounder entered last season ranked as a consensus top-five prospect in the entire sport, due largely to the potency of his bat. He pounded eight extra-base hits (three homers, five doubles) in 67 spring plate appearances and landed on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder.

The learning curve for Walker proved fairly steep as he attempted to skip Triple-A entirely. He began his career on a 12-game hitting streak but soon fell into a slump at the plate. Given that he was already struggling to adapt to a shift to the outfield — his natural position, third base, is of course spoken for in St. Louis — the Cards optioned him near the end of April. He was sent down with a roughly average .274/.321/.397 batting line at the time.

Walker returned in June and looked like a new hitter. From June 2 through season’s end, he effectively maintained the same batting average but did so with a notable bump in OBP and considerably more power. Over his final 387 plate appearances, he hit .277/.346/.455 with 14 homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples, an improved 8.8% walk rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate that sat lower than league average. For a player with minimal Triple-A experience who turned 21 in May, it was a highly encouraging finish to his rookie campaign.

Entering the current season, Walker had a lineup spot locked up. However, his ’24 campaign started out with a protracted swoon at the plate that saw him hit just .155/.239/.259 in 67 plate appearances before being optioned back to Memphis. He’s been there since, due primarily to the fact that his struggles have persisted since being sent back down. Through his first 252 plate appearances back in Memphis, Walker managed only a .234/.300/.357 batting line. His 8.3% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate were both solid, if unspectacular marks, but he’s had the same grounder-heavy approach that he’s shown in the major leagues. For a player with above-average but not elite speed — especially one whose calling card is 70- or 80-grade raw power — hitting nearly half your batted balls on the ground is a sub-optimal outcome.

Over the past few weeks, the now-22-year-old Walker has begun to turn things around in Memphis. He’s belted five homers and tallied a dozen extra-base hits over his past 16 games. It’s only a sample of 67 plate appearances, but Walker has sizzled with a .343/.400/.687 slash in that time — far and away his best stretch of the season at any level.

The Cardinals will be hoping to see more of that level of output from Walker as they push to get back into Wild Card position. Though St. Louis has spent a good portion of the summer in possession of a Wild Card spot in the National League, they’ve dropped a game and a half behind the Braves, who currently hold the third spot. The Mets are a game ahead of the Cardinals and are also vying for the final spot.

St. Louis has struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the season, currently ranking as one of the worst lineups in baseball versus southpaws. Their combined .233/.296/.359 slash against lefties translates to an 85 wRC+ (suggesting they’re 15% worse than league-average at the plate). Walker will give them another right-handed bat to help attack opposing lefties, but it’s worth pointing out that he’s struggled tremendously against lefties both in the majors last year and in Triple-A this season. Walker batted .231/.294/.389 against southpaws in ’23 and has a combined .234/.304/.378 slash against them between Memphis and St. Louis this season.

Per Goldsmith, McLain indicated that he’s still six weeks away from being cleared to swing a bat, indicating he can begin ramping up in earnest in early July. Given the length of his absence, McLain will surely require a rehab assignment in the minor leagues once he’s ready to return to game action, and given that the 24-year-old said that he’s targeting a potential return to the big league Reds sometime in August, just over four months after undergoing surgery. While that timeline still puts him around three months away from big league games, McLain indicated that his rehab is going well, telling reporters (including Goldsmith) that “Right now, [he’s] in a great spot.”

McLain’s absence from the lineup has been a noticeable one for the Reds this season. The youngster was a key part of the club’s offense during his rookie campaign last season as he slashed an impressive .290/.357/.507 in 403 trips to the plate before an oblique strain ended his 2023 season at the end of August. That sort of offensive presence would be a miracle for the Cincinnati lineup this year, which has posted a lackluster 82 wRC+ that’s good for bottom-five in the majors this year despite strong performances from fellow youngsters Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer. Jonathan India has primarily handled the keystone in McLain’s place, but he’s struggled to a wRC+ of 83 despite solid strikeout and walk rates this season.

More from around the NL Central…

• The Cardinals welcomed back longtime infielder Matt Carpenter from the injured list this afternoon after he hit the shelf in early April due to an oblique strain. Carpenter, 38, was a 13th-round pick by the Cardinals back in 2009 and spent the first 12 seasons of his big league career with the club before departing following the 2021 season. He’s played for the Yankees and Padres in the majors since then but returned to the club on a one-year deal over the offseason. Carpenter will take the place of infielder Jose Fermin in the St. Louis bench mix, providing a second veteran left-handed bat alongside Brandon Crawford to complement the club’s heavily right-handed infield group that features Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Masyn Winn.
• The Cubs’ relief corps took a hit this afternoon as the club placed right-hander Yency Almonte on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain. Almonte has been a rare bright spot in a struggling Cubs bullpen this season, pitching to a solid 3.45 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 15 2/3 innings of work since coming over from the Dodgers alongside first baseman Michael Busch in a trade this past offseason. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that there’s no timeline for Almonte’s return to action, leaving the Cubs to piece together solutions in the bullpen while he joins Julian Merryweather, Daniel Palencia, and Drew Smyly in departing the bullpen for the injured list in recent weeks, though right-hander Ben Brown’s recent move from the rotation to the bullpen in deference to Justin Steele could help to fortify the club’s relief corps.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services.  Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business.  For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike.  As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

• Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link).  The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice.  Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
• X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game.  Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday.  Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP.  It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.

It’s unclear when or how Carpenter hurt himself. He last played on Monday but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been hurt for days since he’s only been in part-time bench role for the Cards anyhow. It’s also unclear how long he’ll be out of action but more information will perhaps be forthcoming in the near future.

The mysterious injury to Carpenter allows the club to add a third catcher to their active roster. Willson Contreras was hit on the hand by a pitch yesterday and is out of today’s lineup with Iván Herrera starting. Brendan Donovan was also hit by a pitch yesterday, twice, and is also getting a day off today. That might leave the club a bit short-handed in their home opener today as the four position players not in the lineup today are Contreras, Donovan, Pagés and Brandon Crawford, who has never played a position other than shortstop in his career.

Regardless of the circumstances, the result is that Pagés gets called to the big leagues for the first time. Now 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Long considered a strong defensive catcher, he took a step forward at the plate in 2023.

He got 497 plate appearances at the Double-A level last year and drew a walk in 11.9% of them, while only striking out at a 19.3% clip. He also hit 16 home runs and slashed .267/.362/.443 for a wRC+ of 113.

Carpenter, now 38, returns to the organization where he spent the majority of his career and had his best years. Drafted by the Cardinals in 2009, he was with the big league club from 2011 to 2021. He played in 1,329 games in that time, hitting 155 home runs while slashing .262/.368/.449 for a wRC+ of 125. He made three All-Star teams in that time and won a Silver Slugger award.

His production tailed off in the final three of those seasons, including a batting line of just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. The Cards declined a $18.5MM club option for 2022, taking the $2MM buyout instead. As a free agent, he made a concerted effort to revamp his swing but still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers that winter. He reported to their Triple-A club and showcased his new swing with tremendous success, slashing .275/.379/.613 in 21 games there.

Despite that excellent showing, the Rangers released him and Carpenter was able to secure a big league deal with the Yankees. For a short amount of time, he was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. In 47 games in pinstripes, he hit 15 home runs and produced a monster line of .305/.412/.727. Unfortunately, that dazzling display was cut short when he fouled a ball off his foot and suffered a fracture in early August.

The Padres decided to bank on that brief burst, giving Carpenter a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out after the first season. But he crashed back down to earth in a big way, hitting .176/.322/.319 last year. He clearly fell out of favor with manager Bob Melvin, getting only 30 plate appearances from late July until the end of the season. Carpenter made the easy decision to lock in $5.5MM for 2024 by exercising his player option.

Though he declined a chance to return to the open market, he would find himself back there anyway. The Padres traded him to Atlanta along with left-hander Ray Kerr, with minor league outfielder Drew Campbell going to the Padres. Atlanta tried to trade Carpenter again but gave up and released him three days later, clearly demonstrating that they only took on his contract as a means of getting Kerr.

The Cardinals will be hoping that Carpenter has another bounceback in him, presumably inserting him into their designated hitter/pinch hitter/bench bat mix. Carpenter played some third base and the outfield corners as recently as 2022 with the Yankees but was mostly a DH with the Padres last year, with 81 innings at first base his only time in the field.

The Cards don’t have a strict DH on the roster, with nine different players having received 27 or more plate appearances in that slot last year. They could opt for a similar approach in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have the infield corners spoken for, with Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman perhaps up the middle. Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are the likely starting outfielders while Dylan Carlson could be the fourth outfielder. Brendan Donovan figures to be in a super utility role until an injury opens up a clear path to playing time.

But there are also elements of uncertainty in that group. Goldschmidt is going into his age-36 season and will turn 37 towards the tail end. Winn isn’t a lock to hold down shortstop after he struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching, which could perhaps move Edman there. But Edman himself underwent offseason wrist surgery and is still recovering. Donovan had flexor tendon surgery late last year. Walker is a former infielder who is still considered to be a poor defender in an outfield corner.

There are many moving pieces and it’s possible that things open up in a way that leaves room for Carpenter to get back on track this year. There are at least some similarities here to the situation with Albert Pujols. He also spent his best years in St. Louis before wandering to other clubs and struggling, but he came back to the Cards in 2022 and had arguably his best performance in over a decade. Carpenter’s overall career doesn’t compare to Pujols and he’s also had some more recent signs of success, but it’s an interesting parallel nonetheless.

Ultimately, it’s a low-risk move for the Cards since Carp is essentially free and isn’t guaranteed any playing time. If his performance is similar to his 2023 work with the Padres, he can simply be released, with Atlanta remaining on the hook for his salary.

Perhaps the person with the most to lose with today’s news is Alec Burleson. He was lined up to be a lefty-swinging bench bat for the club but might now get pushed to the farm, since he still has a full slate of options. He has hit well in the minors but has slashed just .237/.295/.375 in his major league career thus far. Perhaps he will find himself taking regular at-bats in Triple-A, depending on the health and performance of the aforementioned names on the roster.

For Cardinal fans, it could be another year of nostalgia storylines involving some long-tenured players. In 2022, Pujols returned to the club for a farewell tour, with both himself and Yadier Molina retiring after that campaign. Last year, Adam Wainwright’s attempts to secure his 200th career win before walking away from the game took center stage as the club fell out of contention.

While the Braves had hoped to trade Carpenter in similar fashion to Marco Gonzales, Evan White and Max Stassi (all of whom they acquired and quickly dealt away in salary-driven swaps), it seems they weren’t able to find a taker for Carpenter even at that rate. He’ll now be a free agent who’ll cost a new team only the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster — the Braves and Padres will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Carpenter, 38, had a brilliant bounceback season with the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in just 154 trips to the plate. A broken foot ended his season, but that eye-popping resurgence was still enough to land him a two-year, $12MM deal with the Padres last offseason.

Unfortunately for the Padres and Carpenter alike, his 2023 campaign looked more like the 2020-21 version of Carpenter who’d looked to be on the decline. In 237 plate appearances with the Friars last year, Carpenter hit just .176/.322/.319. He still walked at a massive 17.3% clip, but Carpenter’s strikeout rate spiked as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate trended in the other direction. The former Cardinals star’s newfound focus on elevating the ball at career-high levels served him well in 2022, but he perhaps took that too far in ’23, lifting 10 harmless pop-ups in his tiny sample of plate appearances. Given his huge walk and strikeout rates, Carpenter only put 125 balls in play last year — 10 of which were effectively automatic outs.

Now that he’s a free agent and can be signed on a league-minimum MLB deal or even on a minor league deal and spring training invite, Carpenter should draw interest from teams seeking left-handed bats. A return to that Herculean production from the summer of 2022 might not be plausible, but there’d be little to no risk for a new club trying to catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner as the 2022 Yankees did.

San Diego’s primary goal was offloading a portion of Carpenter’s $5.5MM salary. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reported that the Padres were kicking in $1.5MM to facilitate the trade. The Braves took on $4MM in salary and luxury tax obligations. The Friars saved $4MM in cash and $4.5MM against the competitive balance tax.

Carpenter’s CBT number was marginally higher for the Padres than it is for Atlanta. His two-year, $12MM deal with San Diego was front loaded, as he collected $6.5MM this year. That came with a $6MM tax hit as the contract’s average annual value, but a traded player’s CBT calculation for an acquiring team is recalculated based on how much they’re still owed at the time of the trade — in this case, $5.5MM for one year.

The point of the trade for Atlanta was to essentially “purchase” the rights to hard-throwing depth reliever Ray Kerr, whom San Diego included in the deal. As a second-year luxury tax payor in the second tier of penalization, the Braves are paying a 42% tax on the $4MM of Carpenter’s salary they assumed. The trade will cost them around $5.68MM altogether. Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number sits around $267MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The third tier of penalization kicks in at $277MM.

Atlanta’s front office has somewhat curiously taken on a handful of underwater contracts as a means of adding talent at the bottom half of the roster. They almost immediately traded Marco Gonzales and Evan White after bringing them in alongside Jarred Kelenic. Catcher Max Stassi, whose contract was included in the David Fletcher trade, was promptly flipped to the White Sox. Carpenter appears next in line.

As was the case with Gonzales and Stassi, the Braves might have to pay Carpenter’s salary all the way or near the league minimum to find a taker. The veteran is coming off a .176/.322/.319 showing.

6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.

Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275  in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.

The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season.  He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.

San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.

A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.

Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.

With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.

Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.

It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.

San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The decisions of Lugo and Martinez were previously reported, as was the news on Carpenter. As for Wacha, it was reported on the weekend that the club was declining a two-year option to retain him for 2024-25. Wacha then had the opportunity to trigger a $6.5MM player option for 2024 but has now turned that down.

Wacha signed a four-year deal with the Padres, though one with a convoluted structure. The club would first have to decide on a two-year, $32MM option for the 2024-25 seasons, which they declined. Wacha then had three straight player options which could have paid him $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in the following two seasons. But he has now turned that down, leaving three years and $18.5MM on the table in search of a new deal.

Although he was largely injured and/or ineffective for much of the 2018 to 2021 period, Wacha has now had two straight solid seasons. He posted a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox in 2022 and a 3.22 mark in his first season in San Diego. Injuries still limited his total volume of work, as he logged 127 1/3 innings for the Sox and 134 1/3 for the Friars, but the combination of workload and effectiveness was nonetheless the best form he’s showed in years.

He’ll now head back to free agency in search of his next deal. The starting pitching market is headlined by guys like Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but Wacha will be somewhere in the tie of solid mid-rotation or back-end guys, alongside Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger.

The fact that Snell and Hader received $20.325MM qualifying offers is no surprise. The two of them are going to be some of the top available free agents this winter, making them a lock to reject them, something recently highlighted by MLBTR. Snell posted a 2.25 earned run average in 2023 and could receive the second Cy Young Award of his career in the coming days. Hader has long been one of the most dominant relievers in the league and had a 1.28 ERA in the season that just ended. Both should be able to receive nine-figure contracts even with a QO attached.

Any impending free agent can receive a qualifying offer as long as they spent the entire season with just one club and haven’t received a QO before. If Hader and/or Snell sign with other clubs after rejecting the QO, the Padres will receive draft pick compensation.

The departures of Wacha, Snell, Lugo and Martinez will leave the Padres fairly short-handed in their rotation. They still have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove but they are followed on the depth chart by unproven options like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, Adrián Morejón and Pedro Avila. They will presumably be looking to add to that group but will have to do so while juggling significant financial concerns.

Hernandez, 29 next month, was just added to the roster in September. He made two appearances, allowing four earned runs in three innings, giving him a career ERA of 12.00 in that tiny sample. He threw 61 innings in the minors in 2023, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.84 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Any of the 29 other clubs could have added him to their roster today but decided to pass.

Estrada, 25, made 17 appearances for the Cubs over the past two seasons with a 5.51 ERA in that time. His 25.9% strikeout rate is a bit above average but his 18.5% walk rate is concerning. That’s generally been a pattern in the minor leagues as well, with Estrada striking out 31.2% of hitters at Triple-A in 2023 but walking 18.8%. He is still optionable next year, so the Padres will add some pitching depth that comes with roster flexibility, while they will presumably try to help Estrada improve his control going forward.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Triggering the option was likely an easy call for the left-handed hitter. Carpenter had a tough 2023 campaign, hitting .176/.322/.319 with five home runs through 276 trips to the plate. He seemed to fall out of favor with the coaching staff as a result, often going extended stretches without an at-bat. His season ended in mid-September when he landed on the injured list with right elbow inflammation.

Clearly, that wasn’t what the front office envisioned when signing Carpenter a year ago. The longtime Cardinals second baseman had struggled mightily from 2020-21. When a minor league deal with the Rangers didn’t result in a big league opportunity, he considered retirement. Yet he absolutely raked over 47 games when he got a look from the Yankees in May 2022. Carpenter blasted 15 homers in 154 plate appearances, hitting .305/.412/.727. A foot fracture kept his time as a Yankee rather brief, leaving the Padres to gamble on him maintaining some kind of strong offensive form after that relatively small-sample performance.

It didn’t happen in year one. The Padres could give Carpenter another crack at securing a job on the bench, although it doesn’t seem guaranteed he’ll spend the entire offseason on the 40-man roster. In any event, he is assured of next year’s salary. With Seth Lugo making the similarly easy call to decline his option yesterday, the Padres are down to their two more borderline options on right-handers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez.

Choi makes it back to the majors before season’s end. He has been out since August 14, when a ribcage strain sent him to the IL. He was able to get back into rehab games a couple weeks later, but it seemed his season would be over when he fouled a ball off his right foot while playing for Triple-A El Paso 10 days ago.

While the Friars initially announced that Choi had broken his ankle, they quickly changed the diagnosis to a Lisfranc injury. Within two days, he was back on the field for El Paso. He made three more rehab appearances before getting the call back to the big league club.

It’s of little consequence for San Diego at this stage. They’re down to 69-78 and going to miss the postseason. Yet it could be a small boost for Choi personally. The left-handed hitter will be a free agent this winter. Playing out the final two and a half weeks will at least allow him to go into the offseason with a fairly clean bill of health. It has been a challenging season overall, as the 32-year-old missed a couple months early in the season with a strained left Achilles. He returned shortly before the trade deadline, was flipped from the Pirates to San Diego, then hurt his rib (and subsequently his foot).

Thanks to the injuries, Choi has gotten into just 30 games. He has slumped to a .179/.239/.440 line over 92 plate appearances and has yet to record a hit as a Padre. Choi was a solid offensive player for the Rays over the four prior seasons, combining for a .242/.350/.421 batting line with a stellar 13.8% walk rate.

Carpenter has had a tough first season with the Friars. He has a .176/.322/.319 line with five homers through 237 trips to the dish, a far cry from his resurgent .305/.412/.727 showing in 47 games for the Yankees last year. Even if he’s able to make it back for the final few games, he’ll surely exercise a $5.5MM player option in lieu of a return trip to free agency.

In other Friars’ injury news, Joe Musgrove won’t return this season. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports that the Padres are scaling back the throwing program for their staff ace. Musgrove has been out since early August with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He hasn’t suffered any kind of setback. Without even a glimmer of hope for a playoff run, the team simply decided there’s no reason to push him.

Musgrove’s season concludes with a 3.05 ERA across 17 starts. He’s under contract for four more seasons at $20MM annually. He and Yu Darvish are the two locks for next year’s starting five. Blake Snell will be a free agent,while Seth Lugo is likely to decline a player option to test the market himself. Michael Wacha could also hit free agency if both he and the team decline their end of various options in his deal. That’ll leave the Friars in search of a handful of starting pitchers over the coming months.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

• Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
• Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
• Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
• Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
• Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
• Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
• Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
• Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

• Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
• Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
• Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
• Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
• Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
• Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
• Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
• Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
• Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

12:52pm: The Padres added some punch to their lineup Tuesday, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $12MM contract with veteran infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, a client of SSG Baseball, can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season by declining a 2024 player option. The contract pays Carpenter a $3MM signing bonus and $3.5MM salary for the 2023 campaign, and he’ll have to decide on a $5.5MM player option next winter. He can also reportedly earn $500K bonuses for reaching each of 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances in both seasons of the contract.

Carpenter, who turned 37 years old last month, enjoyed one of the more remarkable rebound campaigns in recent memory this past season. A three-time All-Star with the Cardinals, Carpenter looked to be on the downswing when he posted a combined .176/.313/.291 batting line in 418 plate appearances with St. Louis from 2020-21.

Last offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic detailed the manner in which Carpenter reinvented himself, taking a data-driven approach to hitting and enlisting feedback from the likes of Joey Votto, Matt Holliday and a private hitting coach as he revamped his swing and his entire approach at the plate. The Rangers were intrigued enough to sign him to a minor league contract.

We often see stories of veterans making changes late in their careers, but few have found the level of success enjoyed by Carpenter. After hitting .275/.379/.613 in 21 games with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, Carpenter was released by Texas (oops) and signed a Major League deal with the Yankees, for whom he posted a borderline comical .305/.412/.727 slash. Carpenter mashed 15 home runs in just 154 plate appearances, and while he was surely aided to an extent by the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, he still popped six of those round-trippers and batted .253/.333/.506 on the road.

Simply put — and in rather stunning fashion — Carpenter was baseball’s best hitter on a rate basis in 2022 (min. 100 plate appearances). He led all of baseball in slugging percentage, isolated power (slugging minus batting average) and wRC+ (217), ranked second to only Aaron Judge in terms of on-base percentage, and posted the 12th-best batting average of any player in the game. Carpenter’s rate of “barreled” balls (as defined by Statcast) was elite, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both clocked in comfortably north of the league average. There’s no realistic way to expect him to sustain that pace, but Carpenter has clearly put himself back on the map as a viable big league slugger.

Unfortunately for both team and player, the revitalized Carpenter fouled a ball into his foot in early August, resulting in a fracture that wiped out the remainder of his regular season. A predictably rusty Carpenter jumped directly back onto the Yankees’ playoff roster but went just 1-for-12 with an alarming nine strikeouts between the ALDS and the ALCS.

With the Padres, Carpenter becomes the favorite for DH work, though the Yankees played him at both corner infield slots and in both corner outfield positions in 2022. He’s also logged more than 1900 innings at second base in his career, though defensive metrics on his limited work there in 2021 were unsightly, to say the least. Still, he could potentially serve as an option there in an emergency.

The agreement with Carpenter pushes the Padres to more than $246MM in actual cash payroll for the 2023 season and bumps their luxury-tax ledger to nearly $267MM, as projected by Roster Resource. The Padres are already well into the second tier of penalization and, given that they’re entering their third straight season over the luxury line, are being taxed at a 62% rate on every dollar in the second bracket ($253MM to $273MM). As such, Carpenter will cost them an additional $3.72MM in taxes for the 2023 campaign.

AJ Cassavell of MLB.com first reported the two sides had agreed to a deal with a 2024 player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the terms and financial details (Twitter links).