“It’s exciting to be part of a staff that has great experience and a clear vision on what needs to happen to be successful at the highest level.  I’m eager to help these players compete for a national championship and hopefully move on to the next level,” Melancon said.

Assuming that Melancon is indeed hanging up his glove, he’ll finish his career with 262 saves and an excellent 2.94 ERA, over 726 2/3 innings in the majors.  As opposed to most bullpen aces, Melancon didn’t bring heavy velocity or big strikeout numbers, instead relying on superb control and a knack for keeping the ball on the ground.  Melancon had a 55.3% groundball rate over his career, the seventh-highest grounder rate of any pitcher in baseball (minimum 700 innings) within the 2009-22 timeframe.

Selected by the Yankees in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, Melancon ended up pitching for nine different clubs at the MLB level after he made his debut in the Show in 2009.  The travels started early, as Melancon changed uniforms via three trades in as many years — from the Yankees to the Astros at the 2010 trade deadline, from Houston to Boston in December 2011, and then from Boston to Pittsburgh in December 2012.  Though Melancon had seemingly broken out with a nice 2011 season, the rebuilding Astros still dealt him, and he then struggled through a rough season with the Red Sox.

The move to Pittsburgh brought both some stability for Melancon, and set the stage for the best stretch of his career.  Melancon became a dominant set-up man and then closer over his three-plus seasons with the Pirates, delivering a sterling 1.80 ERA and 130 saves over 260 1/3 innings in a Bucs uniform.  The right-hander was named to three All-Star teams during this stretch, and finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015 after posting a league-best 51 saves.

Free agency loomed for Melancon after the 2016 season, however, and the Pirates weren’t going to pay top dollar for a star closer.  The result was yet another trade, as Melancon was dealt to the Nationals at the 2016 trade deadline, and he continued to pitch well for Washington throughout the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

The big free agent payday then came that winter when Melancon inked a four-year, $62MM deal with the Giants, which briefly stood as the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  While Melancon had a respectable 3.67 ERA over 115 1/3 innings with San Francisco, it wasn’t the kind of elite performance that was expected from the hefty contract, and injuries also hampered Melancon’s effectiveness.

As the Giants entered a partial rebuild and looked to cut payroll, Melancon was moved to the Braves at the 2019 trade deadline, and had an uptick in results (2.78 ERA in 22 2/3 IP) during the shortened 2020 season.  A one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres followed that offseason, and Melancon enjoyed one final All-Star campaign by posting a 2.23 ERA and 39 saves for San Diego.  This led to a two-year, $14MM contract with the Diamondbacks in December 2021, but Melancon struggled in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Melancon on a terrific playing career, and we wish him the best as he moves into the collegiate coaching ranks.

• Phil Maton: Acquired from Cleveland in the 2021 Myles Straw trade, Maton has quietly been very effective over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he has made 135 appearances for the Astros with a 3.42 earned run average. His 26.5% strikeout rate in that time is a few ticks above league average while his 8.8% walk rate is right around par. He’s been excellent at limiting hard contact, as seen on his Statcast page. His 23.5% hard hit rate last year was actually the best in the majors among qualified pitchers, while his average exit velocity was in the top five. In 2022, he was in the top 10 in both those categories as well. He missed the 2022 postseason due to injury but made six scoreless appearances for the Astros in last year’s playoffs. He has received reported interest this offseason from teams like the Phillies, Yankees and Cardinals.
• Ryne Stanek: Another former Astro, Stanek has made 186 appearances over the past three years with a 2.90 ERA. He has struck out 27% of batters faced but also given out walks at a 12.2% clip. That strikeout rate fell to 23.9% in 2023, but he also cut his walk rate to 9.9%, a career low for him. He has reportedly received interest from the Cubs, Red Sox and Mets this winter.
• Ryan Brasier: The 2023 season was inconsistent for Brasier, a reflection of his career overall. After a stint in Japan, he returned to North America with the Red Sox in 2018, posting a 1.60 ERA. From there, his season-by-season ERA went to 4.85, 3.96, 1.50, 5.78 and then 3.02 in the most recent campaign. That 2023 ERA involved a 7.29 mark with the Red Sox and then a tiny 0.70 figure with the Dodgers. When combining his time with both of those clubs last year, his peripherals ended up pretty close to his career numbers. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and gave out walks to 8% of them last year, near his career rates of 24.1% and 7.4%. Since he finished the year on such a strong note, he has received a fair amount of interest this winter, with clubs like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Orioles, Rangers and Yankees connected to him at various points.
• Jesse Chavez: Though he’s now 40 years old, Chavez doesn’t seem to be slowing down. He made 36 appearances for Atlanta last year with a 1.56 ERA. He surely had a bit of help from the baseball gods there, with a .273 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate, but the peripherals were still strong. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, walked 8.3% and kept 51.7% of balls in play on the ground. His 3.05 FIP and 3.35 SIERA were much higher than his ERA but still represent solid work. He missed about three months of last season after being hit in the leg by a comebacker but was back on the mound before the end of the year.
• Liam Hendriks: If Hendriks were healthy right now, he would be on the top of this list. He cemented himself as one of the best closers in baseball a few years ago and racked up 115 saves over the past five seasons. He has a 2.32 ERA since the start of 2019, having struck out 38.3% of batters faced while walking just 5.1% of them. Unfortunately, 2023 was an incredibly challenging year for the right-hander, as he first had to undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After winning that battle and returning to the mound, he required Tommy John surgery in early August. Since the rehab for that procedure generally goes beyond one year, it’s questionable whether he will be able to pitch at all in the upcoming campaign, though he has said he’s targeting a return around the trade deadline. He can likely find a two-year deal somewhere, with the signing club understanding that they will have a better shot of getting return on their investment in 2025.

Honorable mentions: Jay Jackson, Brad Boxberger, Shintaro Fujinami, Derek Law, Mark Melancon, Matt Barnes

This was Melancon’s second season in Arizona, as the veteran righty initially signed with the club on a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the 2022 season on the heels of a resurgent 2021 campaign that saw him post a 2.23 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work while leading the majors with 39 saves as the primary closer in San Diego. Melancon figured to fill the closer role for Arizona in 2022, but struggled to find his footing with the club, ultimately posting a 4.66 ERA (13% below average by measure of ERA+) and 4.20 FIP with 18 saves as the club lost 88 games.

Perhaps even more concerning than the downturn in results was Melancon’s plummeting strikeout rate. While Melancon was never much of a strikeout artist throughout his career, posting strikeout rates above 25% just twice in his career, his 22.3% strikeout rate in 2021 was an almost perfect reflection of his 22.2% strikeout rate in his career to that point. Melancon’s punch outs plummeted in 2022, however, as he struck out just 14.2% of batters faced during his age-37 season, the lowest mark of his career outside of a 13-game cup of coffee he received with the Yankees as a rookie in 2009.

On the heels of a down season in 2022 and a lost season in 2023, it’s fair to wonder what’s next for Melancon. The veteran righty has had one of the strongest relief careers of his generation, with a career ERA of just 2.94 and 262 saves in 732 career games. At the same time, he’ll turn 39 on Opening Day 2024 and last pitched effectively when he was 36 years old. Given the constant need for bullpen depth around the majors, it seems likely that Melancon will be able to find a job this offseason should he wish to continue his career, but it seems likely he’ll be relegated to minor league deals given his lack of recent track record and uncertain health situation.

As for the Diamondbacks, the club has a fairly solid bullpen nucleus ahead of the 2024 campaign, with closer Paul Sewald backed up by the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Andrew Saalfrank. That being said, it’s certainly feasible the club could look to bolster its bullpen depth given their 4.22 bullpen ERA in 2022, which ranked just 18th in the majors last year. Plenty of right-handed relievers figure to be available this season if Arizona is interested in replacing Melancon on the depth chart, with the likes of Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez chief among them.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Andrew Chafin: $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout)

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

• Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

• Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

• Mark Melancon: $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

• Germán Márquez: $16MM team option ($2.5MM buyout)

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

• Brad Hand: $7MM team option ($500K buyout)

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Max Muncy: $10MM club option (no buyout)

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

• Daniel Hudson: $6.5MM team option (no buyout)

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

• Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

• Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

• Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

• Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

• Alex Cobb: $10MM team option ($2MM buyout)

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

12:45PM: The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Zach Davies has been placed on the 15-day injured list, due to a strained left oblique suffered in last night’s game with the Dodgers.  Right-hander Peter Solomon’s contract was selected from Triple-A in order to fill Davies’ spot on the active roster.  Arizona moved both Mark Melancon and Cole Sulser to the 60-day IL to create 40-man roster space for Solomon and for the newly-acquired Jose Ruiz.

It was pretty clear that Davies was headed to the IL after yesterday’s early exit, as he struggled through 4 1/3 innings before departing.  We may learn about the severity of Davies’ strain in due time, though most oblique injuries of even a Grade 1 level usually require around a month of recovery time.

Since the D’Backs don’t play on Thursday, the team doesn’t strictly need a fifth starter until its April 18 game against the Cardinals.  That gives the Snakes some time to figure out Davies’ replacement in the rotation, with reliever Drey Jameson representing the most obvious in-house option already on the MLB roster.  Jameson didn’t win a rotation job in Spring Training but still made the roster as a relief pitcher, with the expectation that he could step into a starting role if and when an injury-related vacancy emerged.  At the Triple-A level, Tommy Henry and top prospect Brandon Pfaadt are also possibilities if the D’Backs prefer to keep Jameson in the bullpen.

Solomon’s promotion could be a hint to Arizona’s intentions, as while Solomon is a starter himself, his shaky results in the minors might suggest that he’s suited to a relief role at the MLB level.  The Diamondbacks might move Jameson to the rotation and then use Solomon in Jameson’s role as a multi-inning reliever (albeit in lower-leverage situations).

Solomon was a fourth-round pick for the Astros in the 2017 draft, and his only MLB experience came in the form of 14 innings with Houston in 2021.  Pittsburgh claimed Solomon off waivers from the Astros last September, and then Arizona selected Solomon away from the Pirates in December during the minor league version of the Rule 5 Draft.  While Solomon has a 5.25 ERA over 210 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he misses a lot of bats, and might better fit the profile of a reliever even though he has a five-pitch arsenal.

It was only a matter of time before the D’Backs moved Melancon to the 60-day IL, since the veteran reliever is expected to miss several months recovering from a shoulder strain.  Sulser is also suffering from a shoulder strain and was just placed on the 15-day injured list on Friday, but he’ll now face at least a two-month absence before he returns to the big league roster.

The mounting list of injuries in Arizona’s bullpen might also be a factor in the team’s decision about whether or not to move Jameson out of a relief spot.  Corbin Martin might miss the entire 2023 season after undergoing lat tendon surgery last month, Melancon and Sulser are also long-term absences, and Joe Mantiply began the season on the 15-day IL due to shoulder fatigue.

Signed to a two-year, $14MM free agent contract over the 2021-22 offseason, Melancon had a rough first season in the desert. The righty posted a 4.66 ERA through 56 innings. It was his worst run prevention mark in a decade, while his 14.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since his abbreviated rookie season in 2009. His 44.1% grounder percentage was the worst of his career. The D-Backs pulled Melancon from the closing role towards the tail end of the season.

His hope for a bounceback showing has been set back out of the gate. There’s some hope the PRP injection can get him back on track eventually but it now seems that’s a midseason goal. Given the stated timeline, the 14-year MLB veteran figures to wind up on the 60-day injured list whenever the club needs a 40-man roster spot.

Melancon isn’t the only Arizona reliever dealing with a concerning shoulder issue. Right-hander Corbin Martin left last night’s Spring Training contest with an injury. Lovullo told reporters the 27-year-old was going for imaging on Thursday (relayed by Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). The club won’t know a timetable for Martin’s return until there’s more clarity on the diagnosis, yet it’s an obviously unfortunate situation for a pitcher still looking to establish himself at the MLB level.

A former second-round pick of the Astros, Martin reached the majors with Houston two years after being drafted. He made five starts and had been optioned back to Triple-A when he required Tommy John surgery in July 2019. Within a few weeks, Houston dealt him as one of four players in the deadline blockbuster to acquire Zack Greinke. A top 100 caliber prospect at the time, Martin was arguably the headliner of a package that included former first-rounders J.B. Bukauskas and Seth Beer, as well as infielder Josh Rojas (who has been the most successful of the bunch to this point).

Martin hasn’t established himself in the wake of that surgery, bouncing on and off the active roster for the past couple seasons. He allowed a 4.84 ERA in 22 1/3 MLB innings last season and was hit hard for a 6.08 ERA over 17 Triple-A starts. This spring, the D-Backs moved him to relief in an effort to get him on track. He’d gotten off to a nice start this spring, striking out nine with only a pair of walks in 5 2/3 frames before the injury.

March 15: The Diamondbacks expect to be without veteran reliever Mark Melancon to open the season because of a shoulder injury, general manager Mike Hazen said this evening (relayed by Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). The issue’s severity isn’t clear but apparently will send him to the injured list at the start of the year.

It’s an unfortunate beginning to the four-time All-Star’s hope for a bounceback season. Melancon had a tough opening campaign in the desert. Signed to a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason, the righty posted a 4.66 ERA through 56 innings. It was his worst run prevention mark in a decade, while his 14.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since his abbreviated rookie season in 2009. His 44.1% grounder percentage was the worst of his career. The D-Backs pulled Melancon from the closing role towards the tail end of the season.

Rough 2022 campaign aside, Melancon’s track record offered some hope he could improve his results this year. He’d allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in each of the previous four seasons, including consecutive sub-3.00 showings in 2020-21. Melancon doesn’t sport the high-octane, overpowering arsenal of most elite relievers. Yet he’d consistently been successful keeping runs off the board for over a decade on the strength of pristine control and strong ground-ball numbers.

The Diamondbacks made a handful of additions to their bullpen over the winter. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Andrew Chafin all came aboard on low-cost free agent deals. Arizona also nabbed Cole Sulser off waivers from Miami. That group and in-house options like Kevin Ginkel and Joe Mantiply give skipper Torey Lovullo a little more flexibility in the late innings than he’s had in recent seasons.

Lovullo had already suggested he was prepared to take a closer by committee approach early in the year. Melancon, who has saved 262 MLB games in his career, could factor into that mix at some point. He’ll now first have to get healthy, with little public clarity about his overall recovery timeline.

• The Nationals have released southpaw Josh Rogers, who elected free agency after clearing outright waivers. Infielder/outfielder Dee Strange-Gordon has also been granted his release. Strange-Gordon was in his second stint with the Nationals this season, but he requested a release after not being called up to the Major League club, per Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. As for Rogers, the 28-year-old began the year in the Nats’ rotation, making three starts before a move to the bullpen. In all, Rogers posted a 5.13 ERA/6.42 FIP over 26 1/3 innings.
• Kyle Farmer’s run of 192 consecutive starts at shortstop will end with a move to the hot corner, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Youngster Jose Barrero is getting the call-up from Triple-A, and he’ll be given the rest of this season to showcase his ability to be a regular at the position. Farmer, meanwhile, will move to third base and, in the long term, probably back into more of the utility role that he played for most of his career before taking over as the Reds regular shortstop in 2021. Farmer was a substantial defensive upgrade over Eugenio Suarez at the time, but his defensive metrics (-4 OAA, -1 DRS) at shortstop suggest there’s still room to improve for the Reds as a franchise.

Signed by the D-backs to a two-year, $14MM contract over the winter, Melancon has surrendered 14 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits and five walks with just four strikeouts in 11 2/3 frames thus far. His fastball, which averaged 92.2 mph in 2021, is now sitting at just 90.8 mph. Melancon’s swinging-strike and chase rates are actually better than last season’s marks, though, and he’s been plagued by a sky-high .396 average on balls in play. If the Diamondbacks do go in another direction, veteran Ian Kennedy has ample experience and is second on the team with five holds, having been Lovullo’s primary eighth-inning option thus far.

Some more notes from the division…

• Dodgers lefties Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney could both be ready for bullpen sessions this week, manager Dave Roberts said at yesterday’s media session (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya). Kershaw felt some minor soreness while playing catch but could be cleared for a ’pen session by Wednesday. There’s no specific day set for a Heaney bullpen, but he’s also been playing catch. Kershaw has a 1.80 ERA through five starts and 30 innings this season but recently landed on the shelf owing to a hip issue that was treated with an epidural. Heaney has been out since mid-April due to shoulder trouble but opened plenty of eyes early in his Dodgers tenure. In 10 1/3 innings, Heaney allowed only an unearned run on four hits and three walks with a whopping 16 strikeouts. Brandishing a new-look slider in place of his former curveball and having all but scrapped his changeup, Heaney posted a mammoth 20.5% swinging-strike rate and 36.5% opponents’ chase rate prior to landing on the IL. He inked a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Dodgers at the beginning of the offseason. Kershaw signed a one-year, $17MM deal to return not long after the lockout lifted.
• Kris Bryant is joining the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate for a pair of minor league rehab games this week, tweets Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette. If all goes well, he could be back in the lineup for the Rox by the weekend. Out since April 26 due to a back injury that the team hoped would require a minimum IL stay, Bryant will instead wind up missing three-plus weeks of action, at least. As Nick Groke of The Athletic writes, Bryant received a cortisone shot last week after an initial period of rest didn’t fully remedy his ailment. Bryant’s return could push the struggling Sam Hilliard to Triple-A, particularly with the out-of-options Yonathan Daza hitting well at the moment and thus giving the team a productive fourth outfield option. Utilityman Garrett Hampson is also capable of playing all three outfield spots, though he’s been primarily used as an infielder in 2022.

Rojas opened the year on the shelf after suffering an oblique strain in Spring Training. That cost him the first month of the year, a disappointing development after the left-handed hitter showed pretty well last season. Over 550 plate appearances, Rojas hit .264/.341/.411 with 11 home runs and nine stolen bases. He drew walks at a solid 10.5% clip while striking out a hair more often than the average batter.

It was a decent performance for the 27-year-old in his first full MLB season. Acquired from the Astros as part of the four-player return for Zack Greinke, Rojas has overcome a modest 26th-round draft status to develop into a capable hitter. He’s a versatile defender — he suited up at each of second base, third base, shortstop and in both corner outfield spots — but he’s a bat-first player who hasn’t rated particularly well with the glove anywhere on the infield.

Now that he’s back to full strength, Rojas figures to take over as the Snakes’ primary third baseman. Arizona has gotten league-worst production out of the hot corner in the early going, with a group of five players combining for a woeful .160/.209/.247 slash line. The switch-hitting Alcántara has taken 45 of the 88 plate appearances there, but he’s limped to a .189/.200/.321 start overall.

Arizona acquired Alcántara from the Cubs for cash considerations during Spring Training. It was the second stint in the D-Backs organization for the slick-fielding shortstop. Alcántara hasn’t offered much at the plate during his MLB career, however, as he’s coming off a .205/.303/.327 showing in 255 trips for the North Siders. He’s out of minor league option years, so the D-Backs had to designate him for assignment if they’d determined not to continue carrying him on the active roster as he scuffled offensively. They’ll now have a week to trade him or try to to run him through waivers.

Melancon, meanwhile, went on the IL last Friday after contracting the virus. Signed to a two-year deal over the offseason, the veteran closer has collected four saves and tossed eight innings of three-run ball in his new environs. He’ll step back into the ninth inning for skipper Torey Lovullo.

Melancon is the second Arizona reliever lost to the COVID list in as many days. The Snakes also placed J.B. Wendelken on the IL yesterday. Placement on the list can indicate a positive test, viral symptoms or exposure to a person who has tested positive. It isn’t clear whether Melancon has tested positive.

Middleton signed a minor league deal over the offseason. The righty has appeared in each of the past five MLB seasons, spending his career with the Angels and Mariners. Middleton had some strong numbers early on with Los Angeles, but he’s struggled since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. Last season, he tossed 31 innings of 4.94 ERA ball, only striking out 17.1% of batters faced while walking 13.6% of opponents.

Assigned to Reno to open the year, the 28-year-old has made seven appearances. He’s worked 7 1/3 frames of one-run ball, punching out nine while allowing five hits and three walks. That promising start will earn him another chance in the big leagues.

Melancon is coming off his seventh career sub-3.00 ERA season — his second in as many years. After signing with the Padres for a comparatively paltry one year and $3MM shortly before the start of 2021 Spring Training, the four-time All-Star led the big leagues in saves for the second time in his career, notching 39 in 64 appearances.

Though something of a journeyman — and hardly a flamethrower by today’s standards — Melancon has established himself as one of the game’s most consistently effective relievers. Across a 13-year career with the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Pirates, Nationals, Giants, Braves, and Padres, Melancon has covered 670 2/3 innings with a sparkling 2.79 ERA (2.94 FIP). His 244 saves ranked fourth among active players, behind only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Unusually unreliant on the strikeout for a closer (his 22.6% strikeout rate barely exceeds the major league average of 20.6%), Melancon relies on an elevated ground ball rate (56.4%; league average is 43.8%) to limit the longball; indeed, his home run rate of 1.4% is less than half the 2.9% big-league average. Though now entering his age-37 season, these trends have shown no signs of decline; since 2019, Melancon’s GB% and HR% are 58.7% and 1.4%, respectively — right in line with his career numbers.

Though he hasn’t had a poor season since at least 2012, when he posted a 6.20 ERA (4.58 FIP) in Boston, Melancon has experienced something of a late-career resurgence. From 2013 to 2016, he put together 290 innings of 1.80 ERA ball — good for an eye-popping 213 ERA+ — to go along with 147 saves for the Pirates and Nationals, including a majors-leading 51 for Pittsburgh in 2015. He turned those numbers into a four-year, $62MM pact with the Giants after the 2016 season, though a blood flow issue limited his availability and effectiveness. In 115 1/3 innings in San Francisco, Melancon compiled a still-solid 3.67 ERA (3.32 FIP) before heading to Atlanta in a deadline-day trade in 2019. He’s since pitched 108 1/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball between the Braves and Padres.

The move to Phoenix represents something of a homecoming for Melancon, who played college ball at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The move is at least a bit surprising, though, as D-backs GM Mike Hazen had frankly admitted the club is unlikely to in contend 2022. Coming off an NL-worst 52-110 record in 2021, Arizona looks at least a few years from contention, even as several of their top players (Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, Carson Kelly) are under team control for several years to come.

Arizona will hope that Melancon can stabilize a bullpen in need of a few more arms but with several serviceable pieces. Caleb Smith, Noe Ramirez, and J.B. Wendelken will return after solid years, and 23-year-old Luis Frias will look to build on a promising debut in 2021. Few other relievers were able to string multiple solid outings together, however, as the club finished third from the bottom with a 5.08 ERA on the year — ahead of only the Nationals and Orioles.

The Diamondbacks may not contend in 2022, but Hazen’s decision to give real (if comparatively modest) money to Melancon could signal that he’s sincere in his stated preference to hold onto his best young players. Marte in particular would return a king’s ransom, but Arizona does have a top-10 farm system (No. 9, per MLB Pipeline) that includes three top-50 prospects in Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas (though only Thomas is close to big-league-ready).

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Melancon’s $6MM 2022 salary will put the D-backs just north of $55MM in salary commitments for 2022 (excluding salaries for players eligible for arbitration), a big step down from last year’s roughly $96MM number. Hazen’s comments likely signal that the club intends to remain below that number, but he will like have space to continue to add should he choose to do so.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was the first to report the signing; Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guaranteed money; and Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic tweeted Melancon’s annual salaries and the terms of his option. 

While the two relievers offer differing skillsets, it was an easy call to hold onto both players for similar salaries. In 2021 Johnson posted a solid 3.22 ERA and again mystified the opposition with a 31.6% strikeout percentage that ranks as firmly above average. While the right-hander gives up too many free passes (11.1 BB%) and doesn’t induce many groundballs (33.3 GB%) he has proven adept at avoiding home runs when opponents are actually able to put the ball in play against him.

Stammen, meanwhile, rebounded nicely from an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season where he sported a 5.63 ERA after 24 innings. It’s worth noting that his performance there was impacted by some bad BABIP luck, as the durable reliever’s underlying peripherals largely resemble this year’s successful campaign. Regardless, this recent season saw the BABIP pendulum swing the other way while Stammen’s strikeout rate ticked upward and his 55.1% groundball rate remained typically robust. The 38-year-old will look to replicate this year’s 3.06 ERA next season in what will be his sixth season of a very strong Padres tenure.

They’ve also declined their options over right-handed reliever Keone Kela and outfielder Jake Marisnick. San Diego could have paid Kela $800K and Marisnick $4MM to stay aboard next season, but clearly felt between their respective injury and underperformance neither was worth the entirety of that investment. Marisnick will receive a $500k buyout before heading to free agency.

The Kela decision registers as the greater surprise here, as a strikeout-happy reliever with a career 3.33 ERA on its face seems like a bargain with a sub-$1MM price tag. Still, the 28-year-old is recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t thought to be available until midway through next season. After tallying just 42 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, and some declining bottom-line results, the Padres clearly didn’t feel the fiery right-hander was worth the half-season gamble.

Marisnick, meanwhile, was a no-brainer to have his option declined after an ill-fated midseason deal with the Cubs landed him on the west coast. As a glove-first, center field-capable player Marisnick provided adequate production at the plate in Chicago, delivering a .731 OPS. That number cratered following the trade however, as a subsequent .472 OPS contributed to the Padres year-end skid and negated a good deal of the value Marisnick had built for himself earlier in the year.

Additionally, the team confirmed that utility-man Jurickson Profar has exercised his $7.3MM player option for the upcoming season while right-handed closer Mark Melancon has declined his $5MM player option in favor of a $1MM buyout and trip to free agency. The result of both player options are largely formalities at this point, considering the platform years both players posted.

By measure of bWAR Profar was the definition of a replacement-level player in 2021. The one-time top prospect bounced around five positions and upped his walk-rate to a cool 11.9% across 137 games. Unfortunately, that versatility was undercut by generally poor reviews of Profar’s glovework across 4 of his 5 positions. Furthermore, an inability to hit the ball with much authority meant those 137 games worth of plate appearances led to a punchless .227/.329/.320 slash line. Profar will look to tap into some of the upside that he’s shown flashes of throughout his career before making a call on next year’s $8.3MM player option.

Lastly, the 36-year-old Melancon proved to be one of last offseason’s thriftiest pickups. In return for a $3MM guarantee the veteran gave the Padres outstanding production at the back of their bullpen, leading the league with 39 saves in his fifth All-Star campaign. Some batted ball luck worked in Melancon’s favor this season, suggesting his 2.23 ERA is due for some regression, but a very strong groundball and home run rate— plus a spike in strikeout rate from last season— indicate that Melancon remains a plenty serviceable option as a high leverage reliever.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

Feb. 17: Melancon will be guaranteed $3MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’ll earn a $2MM salary in 2021, and there’s a $1MM buyout on a a mutual option for the 2022 season, Heyman adds. The contract allows Melancon to earn another $2MM via incentives.

Feb. 12: The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.

Melancon, 36 next month, adds a former All-Star closer to an already deep Friars bullpen. He’ll give skipper Jayce Tingler another option for ninth-inning work, joining Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan as closer candidates in San Diego. Based on his recent work, Melancon could well jump to the front of the line as the favorite for saves.

Melancon just finished up the final season of a four-year, $62MM contract that briefly stood as the all-time record for a reliever. (Both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen topped that mark within weeks of Melancon signing.) The deal didn’t exactly pay dividends for the Giants, as Melancon battled injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but he bounced back with a strong showing in 2019 and was quite strong over the past season-plus following a trade to the Braves.

Melancon pitched 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, racking up 22 saves while posting strong strikeout and walk percentages (26.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). He’s also one of the game’s leading ground-ball pitchers, evidenced by a whopping 61.4 percent mark over the past two years.

Despite the success in Atlanta, there are some red flags surrounding Melancon. In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. He still excelled at inducing weak contact and ought to benefit from a generally strong defensive infield defense, though.

The Friars already had not only a crowded but also relatively immobile bullpen (from a roster flexibility standpoint). None of Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen or Javy Guerra can be optioned to the minors. Pagan has options but surely isn’t in danger of being sent down, and Tim Hill (who also has options) is one of the team’s three lefties. It could be tough for the Padres to continue carrying the out-of-options Guerra, a converted shortstop who has yet to find much success in Triple-A or the Majors, but they may not want to give up on him considering his heater averages better than 98 mph.

Those, of course, are the types of decisions that playoff-caliber clubs are forced to make when adding improvements, and the Padres have solidified themselves as just that. After making the postseason for the first time under newly promoted president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in 2020, the Padres have added the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim this winter while also re-signing Jurickson Profar. Melancon is the latest, and perhaps the final, piece of an active offseason that has deepened an already-talented team which looks increasingly capable of giving the World Champion Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.