MLBTR readers who want a full refresher on the situation can check out these posts from March. The 2023-2024 offseason was miserable for players, as various teams dialed back spending, often citing declining TV revenue as the reason. Several players signed contracts that were far below initial expectations, most prominently the “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger.

On the heels of that winter, frustration boiled up within the players and they eventually appeared to be split into two camps. One camp attempted to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino, and it was suggested by some that executive director Tony Clark also would have been ousted in the event Meyer was replaced. Ultimately, those efforts stalled out and the Clark/Meyer duo stayed atop the union’s leadership structure.

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor league players. The minor leaguers were placed under the MLBPA umbrella, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating with MLB the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor league players. Minor leaguers received 34 of the 72 seats on the MLBPA executive board, but Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along, with Marino leaving the union at some point.

Though Marino was out of the union, it seems he was well liked enough in some circles that this attempt was made to install him into a very prominent position. Despite the frustrating winter for players, Meyer had made some notable gains for players in the 2022 CBA, his first in this role. The competitive balance tax tiers all went up, though a fourth tier was added. The minimum salaries were also raised in notable fashion, and a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was created, among other advancements for players.

Regardless, the frustration was real and significant enough to threaten Meyer and perhaps Clark in the leadership structure, though they ultimately survived. Back in March, Flaherty seemed to express regret about the way things played out, though he also seemed surprised by the way Marino proceeded.

“There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty told Ken Rosenthal at the time. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.” Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” Flaherty then went on to compliment Meyer for the job he had done with the recent CBA.

The MLBPA votes on those subcommittee spots every two years. The union announced this week a new subcommittee consisting of Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter. Semien and Suter are the lone holdovers from the previous subcommittee.

As noted by Drellich, the subcommittee is significant because key matters are often settled with a 38-person vote. Each of the 30 teams have a representative with one vote, and the eight subcommittee members get the remaining eight votes. Those 30 team reps vote on the eight subcommittee members. The eight players selected this week will have their positions for the next two years, which aligns with the end of the current CBA, as that agreement goes until Dec. 2, 2026.

All relations between MLB and the MLBPA have appeared to be contentious in recent years, from CBA negotiations to the COVID-related shutdown to on-field rule changes. The most recent CBA involved a lockout of more than three months and came perilously close to canceling games. On the other hand, the two sides agreed in the middle of the 2024 campaign to redirect some CBT money towards teams that had lost broadcast revenue, a fairly rare instance of a notable financial decision made outside normal CBA talks.

With another round of collective bargaining due two years from now, the possibility of another lockout is also on the horizon. The league and the union will have plenty to work out, including the ongoing broadcast uncertainty, the international draft and other big-picture issues along with the typical bargaining topics like salaries, taxes and revenue sharing. As such, the developments within the union will have notable ramifications for the baseball world.

“I could have missed more time, but I’m trying to figure out how to fight through it,” Semien said.  “It feels better after a day off and another day of rest.  I’m happy about that.  I just want to come back strong.”

The injury stems from a collision between Semien and Adolis Garcia while the two were chasing the same fly ball on May 18.  Semien has hit only .135/.200/.189 over 40 plate appearances in the nine games since the collision, and also made three errors in the field.  As Grant notes, Semien’s career splits indicate that he is generally a better hitter anyway later in the season, though this neck issue adds an unwelcome obstacle for a Texas club that has struggled to a 27-30 record in its defense of last year’s World Series championship.

More from around the AL West…

• Speaking of lingering injuries, Nolan Schanuel was a late scratch from the Angels’ lineup yesterday due to left thumb soreness.  Manager Ron Washington told MLB.com and other media that Schanuel has been bothered by his thumb for an unspecified period of time, which could explain the first baseman’s underwhelming .224/.294/.328 slash line through 206 plate appearances.  It has still been less than a year since Schanuel was selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2023 draft, and his 2024 numbers have been a tough follow-up to his solid .275/.402/.330 mark over 132 PA last season, after the Angels fast-tracked him to the majors after just 97 minor league PA.
• Lucas Erceg was placed on the Athletics’ 15-day injured list yesterday with what officially termed a forearm strain, and manager Mark Kotsay didn’t give reporters (including MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos) a timetable on when the reliever might be ready to return to action.  However, it does seem like Erceg’s injury might be of the relatively minor variety, as Kotsay indicated that Erceg might be able to start throwing “sooner than later.”  That’s certainly good news considering the ominous nature of forearm injuries, so it seems like Erceg could soon resume set-up duties in front of star rookie closer Mason Miller.  Erceg has a 2.86 ERA over 22 relief innings, with a set of impressive Statcast metrics that include a superb 31% strikeout rate and 28% hard-hit ball rate.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Each player garnered plenty of interest and ultimately secured a guarantee above nine figures, often well above. All of the deals were among the most significant for their respective franchises and surely came with a great deal of thought and scrutiny. Deciding to spend hundreds of millions of dollars over a period of roughly a decade to one player is not something that is done flippantly. The deals still have many years remaining on them and it’s far too soon to start declaring winners and losers, but one team that must be currently thrilled with how it played this market is the Texas Rangers.

The club had been doing a lot of losing until recently. After falling to the Blue Jays in the ALDS in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016, the Rangers entered a rebuilding period, finishing below .500 in each season after that. They seemingly got fed up with that futility and tried to press fast forward on the rebuild by spending money aggressively. That came in surprising fashion after the 2021 campaign when they nabbed two of the aforementioned star shortstops. They gave Seager $325MM over 10 years and Semien $175MM over seven, installing the latter as their everyday second baseman.

Those contracts still have a ways to go, but it’s hard to imagine them having gone much better to this point. Last year, Seager launched 33 home runs and slashed .245/.317/.455. Even with a .242 batting average on balls in play dragging him down, he still produced a wRC+ of 117, or 17% above league average. When combined with his strong shortstop defense, he was worth 4.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Here in 2023, he’s missed significant time due to a left hamstring strain and right thumb sprain but has been otherworldly when on the field. In just 78 games, he has 22 home runs and the BABIP wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way this year, with a .370 mark in that category. His .348/.411/.661 line amounts to a wRC+ of 190, the best such mark in the league among those with at least 350 plate appearances. He’s already at 4.8 fWAR despite not even playing half a season.

As for Semien, he was similarly BABIP’d last year, with just a .263 mark in that department. But his 26 home runs helped him hit .248/.304/.429 for a 107 wRC+. His defensive marks were quite strong, hardly surprising for a former shortstop at the keystone. His 11 Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average were both in the top five among second basemen. He also stole 25 bases and finished the year with a tally of 4.2 fWAR.

Here in 2023, he’s walking more, striking out less and his .296 BABIP is much closer to league average. His .282/.353/.472 line translates to a 127 wRC+. His 11 DRS trails only Andrés Giménez among second basemen while his 11 OAA is topped only by Thairo Estrada. He’s already at 5.0 fWAR this year with still about six weeks to go, with both him and Seager among the top seven positions players in the league this year in that category.

Those two players have been a huge reason why the club has now returned to relevancy, as the Rangers are 72-49 this year, with only three clubs around the majors currently sporting a better winning percentage. Simply buying an elite middle infield might not seem like an accomplishment to some, but spending big doesn’t always lead to a proportionate return on investment, as shown by the other players listed at the top of this article.

Correa had a solid campaign last year and returned to the open market. Though he had two deals ultimately scuttled by health concerns, he returned to the Twins on a six-year deal with a $200MM guarantee and vesting options that allow him to bank even more. But he’s hitting just .231/.308/.409 this year for a 98 wRC+ as his previously-elite defense has slid closer to league average. Bogaerts has just 12 home runs for the Padres and is hitting .272/.346/.400. His wRC+ of 109 shows he’s still above average but it’s well shy of his .300/.373/.507 line and 134 wRC+ in the previous five seasons. Turner is having the worst year of his career, currently sitting on a line of .250/.302/.394 and an 86 wRC+. Story had around league-average offense last year and required elbow surgery in the winter, only returning to the Red Sox in recent days. Báez hit just .238/.278/.393 for the Tigers last year and has a dreadful .221/.262/.320 line this year. Swanson is the only non-Ranger of the bunch who has been thriving after signing a mega deal.

As was already mentioned, we can’t start handing out awards and calling certain teams “winners” or “losers” at this point. These contracts range from six to 11 years in length, leaving plenty of time for things to change. But most clubs sign these lengthy free agent contracts hoping for excellent production at the beginning and usually expecting some painful years at the end. Many of these deals are off to rough starts and the respective players will need significant improvements in the years to come in order to stop them from looking like big busts.

The Rangers don’t have a perfect record in free agency and are plenty familiar with how big spending can backfire. They spent $185MM this winter to get Jacob deGrom, who made six starts before requiring Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until the second half of 2024 at the earliest. Their faith in Martín Pérez looks like a misstep, as they gave him a $19.65MM qualifying offer but have seen him post a 4.85 ERA this year and recently get bumped to the bullpen. But in terms of the shortstop market, they’ve obviously done quite well. It was surprising to see any club put down so much money that they were able to nab two of the big name free agents. The Rangers not only ponied up the dough, but seem to have made a wise decision on who to spend it on. Twice.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

• Catcher: Sean Murphy, Braves
• First Base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
• Second Base: Luis Arraez, Marlins
• Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
• Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
• Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
• Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
• Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
• Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
• Pitchers: Alexis Diaz/Reds, Camilo Doval/Giants, Bryce Elder/Braves, Zac Gallen/Diamondbacks, Josiah Gray/Nationals, Josh Hader/Padres, Mitch Keller/Pirates, Clayton Kershaw/Dodgers, Justin Steele/Cubs, Spencer Strider/Braves, Marcus Stroman/Cubs, Devin Williams/Brewers
• Position Players: Ozzie Albies/Braves, Pete Alonso/Mets, Nick Castellanos/Phillies, Elias Diaz/Rockies, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Diamondbacks, Matt Olson/Braves, Austin Riley/Braves, Will Smith/Dodgers, Jorge Soler/Marlins, Juan Soto/Padres, Dansby Swanson/Cubs

American League

• Catcher: Jonah Heim, Rangers
• First Base: Yandy Díaz, Rays
• Second Base: Marcus Semien, Rangers
• Third Base: Josh Jung, Rangers
• Shortstop: Corey Seager, Rangers
• Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Rays
• Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels
• Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees
• Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
• Pitchers: Felix Bautista/Orioles, Yennier Cano/Orioles, Emmanuel Clase/Guardians, Luis Castillo/Mariners, Gerrit Cole/Yankees, Nathan Eovaldi/Rangers, Kevin Gausman/Blue Jays, Sonny Gray/Twins, Kenley Jansen/Red Sox, Michael Lorenzen/Tigers, Shane McClanahan/Rays, Shohei Ohtani/Angels, Framber Valdez/Astros
• Position Players: Yordan Alvarez/Astros, Bo Bichette/Blue Jays, Adolis Garcia/Rangers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Blue Jays, Austin Hays/Orioles, Whit Merrifield/Blue Jays, Salvador Perez/Royals, Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Luis Robert Jr./White Sox, Brent Rooker/Athletics, Adley Rutschman/Orioles

American League

• Catcher: Jonah Heim, Rangers (1st selection)
• First Base: Yandy Díaz, Rays (1st selection)
• Second Base: Marcus Semien, Rangers (2nd selection)
• Third Base: Josh Jung, Rangers (1st selection)
• Shortstop: Corey Seager, Rangers (4th selection, 2nd consecutive)
• Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Rays (1st selection)
• Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (11th selection, 11th consecutive)
• Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (5th selection, 3rd consecutive)*
• Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (3rd selection, 3rd consecutive)

National League

• Catcher: Sean Murphy, Braves (1st selection)
• First Base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (7th selection, 5th consecutive)
• Second Base: Luis Arraez, Marlins (2nd selection, 2nd consecutive)
• Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (8th selection, 8th consecutive)
• Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves (1st selection)
• Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (4th selection, 4th consecutive)
• Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (1st selection)
• Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers (7th selection, 7th consecutive)
• Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (6th selection, 5th consecutive)

* Currently on injured list with sprained toe

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

• Jose Altuve, Astros

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

• Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

• Brandon Crawford, Giants

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

• Salvador Perez, Royals

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

• Chris Sale, Red Sox

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

• Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

• Mike Trout, Angels

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

• Joey Votto, Reds

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

• Patrick Corbin, Nationals

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

• Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

• Bryce Harper, Phillies

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

• Aaron Hicks, Yankees

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

• DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

• Manny Machado, Padres

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

• Ryan Pressly, Astros

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

• Christian Yelich, Brewers

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

• Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

• Ozzie Albies, Braves

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

• Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

• Javier Báez, Tigers

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

• José Berríos, Blue Jays

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

• Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

• Xander Bogaerts, Padres

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

• Kris Bryant, Rockies

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

• Byron Buxton, Twins

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

• Luis Castillo, Mariners

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

• Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

• Willson Contreras, Cardinals

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

• Carlos Correa, Twins

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

• Jake Cronenworth, Padres

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

• Yu Darvish, Padres

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

• Jacob deGrom, Rangers

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

• Rafael Devers, Red Sox

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

• Edwin Díaz, Mets

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

• Wilmer Flores, Giants

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

• Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

• Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

• Wander Franco, Rays

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

• Andrés Giménez, Guardians

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

• Michael Harris II, Braves

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

• Kyle Hendricks, Cubs

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

• Aaron Judge, Yankees

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

• Francisco Lindor, Mets

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Lance McCullers Jr., Astros

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

• Ryan McMahon, Rockies

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

• Sean Murphy, Braves

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

• Joe Musgrove, Padres

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

• Brandon Nimmo, Mets

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

• Matt Olson, Braves

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

• Marcell Ozuna, Braves

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

• José Ramírez, Guardians

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

• J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

• Anthony Rendon, Angels

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

• Austin Riley, Braves

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

• Carlos Rodón, Yankees

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

• Julio Rodríguez, Mariners

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

• Keibert Ruiz, Nationals

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

• Corey Seager, Rangers

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

• Marcus Semien, Rangers

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

• Antonio Senzatela, Rockies

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

• George Springer, Blue Jays

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

• Trevor Story, Red Sox

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

• Dansby Swanson, Cubs

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

• Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

• Chris Taylor, Dodgers

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

• Trea Turner, Phillies

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

Seager had been off to a .359/.469/.538 start. Texas won’t be able to replace that kind of offense — Seager himself wasn’t going to keep hitting at that rate — but it’s an obviously tough blow for a team that projects as a fringe playoff club.

Manager Bruce Bochy quickly shot down the notion of sliding Marcus Semien over to shortstop (via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The All-Star infielder has plenty of experience from his time in Oakland, but he’s primarily played second base over the past two-plus seasons. With Seager expected to return at some point during the season’s first half, the Rangers don’t seem keen on disrupting Semien’s rhythm at the keystone only to move him back there a few weeks from now.

Instead, it seems the Rangers will turn to a combination of less proven options to cover the position. Let’s take a look at the candidates.

The Favorites

Josh H. Smith

Smith picked up the first shortstop start last night, plugging right into Seager’s customary No. 2 spot in the lineup versus Royals’ righty Brad Keller. As a left-handed hitter, he could pick up the bulk of the work against right-handed pitching.

A second-round pick of the Yankees in 2019, Smith landed in Texas via the Joey Gallo trade (which’ll come up again shortly). He made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 73 games. Smith struggled through his looks at big league pitching, hitting .197/.307/.249 over 253 trips to the plate. He demonstrated a very patient approach, walking 11.1% of the time while keeping his strikeouts to a lower-than-average 19.8% clip. Yet he didn’t do much when he put the ball in play, only picking up two home runs with a well below-average 28.6% hard-contact percentage.

Smith was much better in Triple-A. He’s been a productive hitter throughout his minor league career. That continued in 2022, when he put up a .290/.395/.466 line with six homers, a 12.6% walk rate and a 20.7% strikeout percentage over 55 contests for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock. Baseball America’s pre-2022 scouting report on Smith praised his exit velocities in the minor leagues, which he’ll need to carry over more effectively to be a productive MLB hitter.

Ezequiel Durán

Durán, a right-handed hitter, also began his career in the Yankees’ system. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he joined Smith as part of the package sent to Texas for Gallo. (Glenn Otto and Trevor Hauver were also included.) Like Smith, Durán made his big league debut last season but didn’t perform well in his first crack, albeit with a different profile.

The 23-year-old Durán hit .236/.277/.365 in 220 MLB plate appearances. He was among the game’s most aggressive hitters, chasing nearly half the pitches he saw outside the strike zone and whiffing at more than 14% of total offerings. Durán walked at a meager 5.5% rate while punching out 24.5% of the time. He did more damage than Smith when he made contact, connecting on five home runs, ten doubles and a triple. However, he’ll need to rein in his approach to keep his on-base percentage at a suitable level.

Durán was better in Triple-A, hitting .283/.316/.531 in 33 games. His strikeout and walk rates there (27.7% and 4.5%, respectively) remained concerning, but he connected on nine long balls. Durán was a highly-regarded prospect — perhaps even more so than Smith — based on his power potential but he’s faced more questions about his swing decisions and ability to handle shortstop defensively. Durán spent most of his time at second base in the minors and played primarily third base at the big league level. He’s yet to log a single major league inning at shortstop, though Bochy named him as an option there after Seager’s injury.

Other Possibilities

There aren’t many alternatives for Texas at the moment. Brad Miller hasn’t regularly played shortstop since 2016. Prospects Luisangel Acuña and Jonathan Ornelas are on the 40-man roster but don’t seem on the radar for an immediate call. The 21-year-old Acuña has barely played above High-A and isn’t likely to play in the majors at all this season. Ornelas, 23 next month, could be a more realistic option for a midseason promotion after hitting .299/.360/.425 with Double-A Frisco last year. He has all of nine games of Triple-A experience, though.

Perhaps the Rangers will look to fortify the depth in the coming weeks. Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons are still unsigned and would have to take a minor league deal if they wish to continue playing. Even then, neither would be ready to step right into a big league lineup. Maybe the Marlins would part with José Iglesias, who’s at Triple-A Jacksonville after signing a non-roster deal in Spring Training. Iglesias can opt out of that contract if he’s not in the majors by May 1; it’s not uncommon for teams to grant players in his position an early release or cash trade if another club is willing to give them an immediate MLB roster spot.

The Rangers aren’t going to make any kind of impact outside acquisition at this time of the year. That’s not necessary with Seager likely returning in late May or early June. Barring a veteran depth pickup, Texas looks set to rely on a pair of young players to man shortstop for the next few weeks.

• 2021: The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year, $18MM deal with Marcus Semien, as the two sides agreed to the contract a few days prior.  In the aftermath of a disappointing 2020 season with the A’s, Semien opted for the one-year pact with Toronto in order to rebuild his free agent value with a better performance in 2021.  This plan worked to perfection, as Semien finished third in AL MVP voting after hitting .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs (a new single-season record for a second baseman).  Semien then cashed in during his most recent trip to the open market, signing a seven-year, $175MM contract with the Rangers signed prior to the lockout.
• 2021: In another notable move completed one year ago, the Athletics acquired Cole Irvin from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations.  Irvin hadn’t done much over 45 1/3 career innings with Philadelphia, but the southpaw emerged as a valuable member of Oakland’s rotation last year, posting a 4.24 ERA over 178 1/3 innings.  While the Statcast metrics weren’t kind to Irvin and questions remain as to whether or not he can stick as a reliable starting pitcher, and yet for the cost of just a minor cash outlay, the trade was already a win for the A’s.  It is possible Irvin wouldn’t have broken out without a change of scenery, and yet the deal doesn’t look great in hindsight for the Phillies, especially considering the Phils spent much of the season looking for consistency at the back of their rotation.
• 2016: Jean Segura was traded for the second of four times in his career, as the Diamondbacks acquired Segura and right-hander Tyler Wagner from the Brewers for a package of Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz, Aaron Hill, and $5.5MM to cover part of Hill’s remaining salary.  Segura’s lone season in Arizona was the best of his career (.319/.368/.499 with 20 homers as part of a 5.0 fWAR campaign), but it wasn’t enough to keep the D’Backs from a 93-loss season.  With Mike Hazen taking over as Arizona’s GM in the aftermath of that rough season, Segura found himself on the move again in November 2016, traded to the Mariners in another notable swap that brought Ketel Marte to the desert.  From Milwaukee’s perspective, their Segura trade ended up being a nice win.  Anderson became a solid member of the rotation for four seasons, while Diaz was part of the prospect package the Brewers sent to the Marlins to land Christian Yelich.
• 2006: Hey, remember when Mike Piazza played for the Padres?  The Hall-of-Famer spent only one season in a Friars uniform, but it was a memorable one, sparked when Piazza signed a one-year, $2MM deal (with an $8MM mutual option for 2007).  Getting the bulk of playing time as San Diego’s starting catcher, Piazza still plenty left in the tank at age 37, hitting .283/.342/.501 with 22 home runs over 439 PA.  Piazza’s big year helped the Padres win the NL West, but the team declined their end of the mutual option after the season.
• 1954: Bobby Thomson’s legendary home run helped THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT in 1951, but it can be argued that trading Thomson helped the Giants win the World Series in 1954.  On this day 68 years ago, the then-New York Giants picked up left-handers Johnny Antonelli and Don Liddle, backup catcher Ebba St. Claire, infielder Billy Klaus and $50K in cash from the then-Milwaukee Braves in exchange for Thomson and catcher Sam Calderone.  Antonelli became a fixture of the Giants rotation for the next seven seasons, reaching six All-Star games and posting a league-best 2.30 ERA in 1954.  Liddle was also a solid arm for New York in 1954, and might be best remembered for allowing the long Vic Wertz fly ball that required Willie Mays to make “The Catch” in Game 1 of the 1954 World Series.  Brought into the game specifically to face Wertz, Liddle was removed after facing his one batter — according to legend, Liddle then wisecracked “well, I got my man” in mock-bragging fashion after leaving the game.
• 1923: It’s not quite the most famous example of the Red Sox trading a future Hall-of-Famer to the Yankees, since it’s not like Boston fans bemoaned “The Curse Of Herb Pennock.”  Still, the Yankees never won a World Series before Pennock came to the Bronx, dealt from Boston for $50K and three players who were all gone from the Sox roster by 1925.  Pennock was already a 10-year veteran with a solid career behind him at the time of the trade, but after a couple of relative down years in 1921 and 1922, the Sox were ready to move on.  Pennock went on to pitch 11 seasons with the Yankees, posting a 3.54 ERA over 2203 1/3 innings and helping New York win four Series championships.  The southpaw was at his best in October, with a 1.95 ERA over 55 1/3 career innings in World Series play.

A few prominent players — each of whom assumes an active role within the MLBPA — recently appeared on the Chris Rose Rotation (YouTube link via Jomboy Media) to discuss the current state of talks (or lack thereof). Yankees reliever Zack Britton, Rangers middle infielder Marcus Semien and White Sox starter Lucas Giolito all expressed some frustration with the lack of progress to date.

Not surprisingly, the players argued MLB has yet to seriously engage in negotiations. “We feel like we’ve offered some good proposals,” Britton said. “And really we didn’t get anything from their end in Dallas (in negotiations during the final few days of November).”

Semien and Giolito largely echoed that sentiment. The former pointed out that MLB could’ve continued to negotiate rather than locking the players out upon the expiration of the previous collective bargaining agreement. The latter plainly stated that the MLBPA was hoping to return to the table as soon as possible. “We’re here, we’re ready to negotiate,” Giolito told Rose. “We’re pretty much waiting on MLB. We’ve made our proposals, we’ve made multiple proposals right before they decided to lock us out. They said no, they weren’t interested at the time. … We’re not going to negotiate against ourselves. It takes two to tango.”

Of course, there’s been similar rhetoric on the part of MLB. At the time the league locked the players out, commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that MLB “candidly … didn’t feel that sense of pressure on the other side” and added it was the league’s desire to “get back to the table as quickly as we can.” Very little has happened in the nearly four weeks since, although it’s not clear whether continued discussions on core economics would’ve done much regardless. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote a few weeks ago that December negotiations would have likely entailed the parties “saying the same things to each other over and over.”

The most pressing issues in talks — the competitive balance tax, the service time structure, salaries for early-career players, etc. — have been discussed ad nauseam in recent weeks. While speaking with Rose, each of Britton, Semien and Giolito argued that the union was more concerned than the league is with competitive balance. “We want every team to be trying to win year-in and year-out,” Britton said. “We think that’s fair to the fanbases and that’s what we want. We’re going to continue to send that message.” Giolito took a similar tack, alluding to clubs that have slashed their MLB payrolls during rebuilds. “We want thirty teams competing, trying to field the best possible players so that the game is more competitive. That’s kind of what we are stressing with our proposals: let’s make the game better for everybody, number one being the fans.”

Some lower-payroll clubs have of course managed to consistently remain successful in spite of budgetary limitations. Yet it’s clear that the players took issue with clubs that have largely chosen to sit out free agency while orchestrating massive organizational overhauls. Britton pointed to his former team, the Orioles, as one such club of concern, although he cautioned that the Baltimore franchise was merely one of a few examples of what the players feel to be a widespread problem.

Given the lack of movement to date, is it still possible for a new deal to be reached without games being interrupted? Semien expressed optimism on the union’s behalf about avoiding interruptions to Spring Training, although he unsurprisingly noted that “January is a huge month.” That said, all three players reiterated they didn’t feel any time pressure to meaningfully move off their current goals.

Britton and Giolito each pointed to last year’s pandemic freeze as a potential strengthening factor for the union. That wasn’t technically a work stoppage, as the game was paused due to national emergency. Yet the return-to-play discussions proved contentious, with the MLBPA eventually filing a grievance alleging that MLB didn’t negotiate in good faith to play as many games as possible last year during a season with essentially zero gate revenue.

“(Waiting it out) is part of the process right now,” Giolito said. “ Going through the pandemic year, kind of fighting for what we wanted as players, really coming together, communicating well, that puts us in a good position now. … Even if things are delayed a little bit, we’re here, we’re ready to negotiate. We’re going to keep pushing for getting a season going as soon as possible.“

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

• Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
• Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
• Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

• Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
• Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
• Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
• Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicated recently on his Big Time Baseball podcast that Seattle indeed made an offer to Story prior to the lockout — presumably with the idea that Story would move off of shortstop in deference to incumbent J.P. Crawford. Dipoto plainly stated earlier in the winter that the organization’s plan was to keep Crawford at that position, and reports since that time suggested the team’s interest in Story would likely be predicated on a move to second base.

In his latest mailbag column Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times expands on some of the Mariners’ free-agent targets, reporting that the team never had a one-on-one meeting with Semien — seemingly due to a lack of interest on Semien’s end. Regarding the potential of an infielder changing positions to come to Seattle, he further notes that Crawford himself has never expressed that he’s unwilling to change positions, but the Mariners aren’t keen on moving a player they believe to be a high-end defender at a time when he’s making strides offensively.

Regarding Story, a move to the keystone might be preferable even independent of Crawford’s presence at shortstop. Divish hears from some scouts who suggest Story’s arm might play better at second base than it does at shortstop long-term. The former Rockie is coming off a season in which he ranked fourth among shortstops with 11 throwing errors, his fourth straight season ranking among the top ten at the position in that category.

Story’s strong durability and range paradoxically contribute to those error marks — a player can only commit a throwing error on balls he’s able to field in the first place — but inconsistency with his arm likely played into mixed reviews from public defensive metrics. While Defensive Runs Saved has continually pegged Story as a plus gloveman over the years, Statcast’s Outs Above Average tabbed him at six plays below par at shortstop in 2021.

While Story has never played an inning outside of shortstop as a big leaguer, it’s generally expected he’d acclimate well to second base if needed. That’s a less strenuous position on the defensive spectrum, and one need look no further than the aforementioned Semien (who won a Gold Glove at second base with the Blue Jays this past season) as an example of a player successfully bouncing from the left side of the diamond to the right. If the M’s were to land Story, his pairing with Crawford would make for one of the stronger all-around middle infields in the game.

After acquiring Frazier, the Mariners arguably don’t need another infielder. Yet adding a player like Story or Bryant would raise the team’s overall offensive ability while freeing up Frazier and/or Abraham Toro to assume a multi-positional role. That’d give manager Scott Servais far more with which to work than he had in 2021, when Seattle hitters combined for an underwhelming .226/.303/.386 slash line (pitchers excluded). Even after accounting for the club’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark, that offensive output ranked just 21st among the league’s 30 teams by measure of wRC+.

“Marcus’ reputation around the game is impeccable.  He’s a leader in every clubhouse he steps into, respected for the way he goes about his work and how he treats others,” Rangers President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels said in a press release officially announcing the signing.  “There are few players in the game who garner the level of respect that he does from teammates and opponents alike.  We’re thrilled to add a player of his caliber to the organization.”

There were indications that Semien was one of the free agents looking to get his next contract finalized prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, as a lockout and transactions freeze are widely expected to follow.  The Rangers were also known to be one of the more aggressive teams of the offseason, with money to spent and a direct interest in the shortstop market.

With these factors in mind, a deal between the two sides doesn’t necessarily count as a surprise, but the sheer size of the contract is a little eye-opening.  MLBTR projected Semien for six years and $138MM, as though Semien is already 31 years old, he has been a very durable player throughout his career and isn’t necessarily as much of a decline risk as other players his age.  Needless to say, the Rangers agreed, giving Semien the biggest contract of any free agent to date this winter.  With Semien now locking in $175MM, the asking price will probably only go up for Carlos Correa (age 27), Corey Seager (28 in April), Trevor Story (who just turned 29) and Javier Baez (who turns 29 on December 1).

It also isn’t out of the question that one of these other shortstops might still end up joining forces with Semien in the Texas infield, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that Story is still under consideration.  Theoretically, a scenario exists where Story signs to play shortstop, while Semien moves to second base, as he did last year with the Blue Jays alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.

If another shortstop isn’t added, Semien might conceivably still remain at second base, since Rangers incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a fine defensive shortstop in his own right.  Kiner-Falefa would likely be a defensive standout anywhere he plays around the infield, however, so Texas could opt to put IKF at second or third base, and install Semien back in his former shortstop position.

The seven-year contract represents quite a turn of events for Semien, who struggled through the first six weeks of the shortened 2020 season, thus limiting his value heading into free agency last winter.  Semien opted to sign a one-year deal with the Jays in order to re-establish his market, and the result was a third-place finish in AL MVP voting.  Semien hit .265/.334/.538 with 45 homers during his spectacular year, appearing in all 162 games and leading the league with 724 plate appearances.  In addition to Silver Slugger honors, Semien also won a Gold Glove in his first year as a second baseman since 2014.

The Rangers were very familiar with Semien from his days with the Athletics, and the infielder now returns to the AL West as the veteran face of a new era of Texas baseball.  After five straight losing seasons, both president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young indicated that the club was willing to spend some serious money to return to contention.  The Rangers have so little on the books in future salary commitments that multiple signings seemed likely, and if the team is indeed prepared to add up to $100MM in payroll this winter alone, Semien’s $25MM average annual value represents only the first quarter of Texas’ potential outlay.

As Rome wasn’t built in a day, turning the 102-loss Rangers into an immediate contender will be a tall order, even if Texas does spend $100MM+.  Both the AL West and the American League as a whole figure to be competitive in 2022, so the Rangers will need quite a bit more than just Semien to even get back above the .500 mark.  The seven-year commitment, however, is a sign that the Rangers are clearly in this for the long haul, and Semien is the type of “signpost” free agent signing (i.e. Jayson Werth signing with the Nationals in December 2010, or Hyun Jin Ryu signing with the Blue Jays two offseasons ago) that announces a team is ready to turn the corner.  Semien’s reputation as a strong clubhouse leader will also help for mentorship purposes with the Rangers’ younger players, and potentially attract other players to Arlington.

Because Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offer, the Rangers will have to give up $500K in international spending pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft.  The latter is a pretty significant concession, as the Rangers’ second-highest selection is the third pick of the second round.  Since signing another QO-rejecting free agent would cost Texas its next highest pick (the third choice of the third round), it remains to be seen if the Rangers will now target free agents who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation.  Of the other shortstops, Baez is the only one who didn’t turn down a qualifying offer, as Baez wasn’t eligible due to his midseason trade to the Mets.

As well, the Blue Jays will get draft pick compensation for Semien’s departure, as the Jays will now get an extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  The Blue Jays had interest in re-signing Semien themselves, but will now take the draft pick as a reward for their bet on Semien one year ago.

With Bichette established at shortstop, it remains to be seen if any of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez could factor into Toronto’s plans, though most of the Jays-related news this winter has been related to their search for pitching, rather than any shortstops apart from Semien.  With a Santiago Espinal/Cavan Biggio platoon penciled in for second base or third base, the Jays have some flexibility in what type of infielder they can pursue as a Semien replacement, or whether that new player comes via free agency or trade.  There is no easy way to truly replace Semien’s production, of course, so a substantial addition be required to try and fill the big hole that Semien leaves in Toronto’s lineup.

FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to report that the two sides were close to a deal, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reporting the contract length, the fact that the deal had been reached, and the dollar figure.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also adds that the deal doesn’t contain any opt-out clauses or no-trade protection. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

It’s not the first time the two sides have been connected, but recent talks between the two parties are nevertheless notable — particularly given various reports and industry speculation that Baez could push to sign somewhere prior to the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next week.

Detroit has been repeatedly linked to Correa for months now, though at least some of that stems from the fact that Tigers manager AJ Hinch knows Correa well from their time together in Houston. General manager Al Avila began the offseason by stating that his team needed both a starting pitcher and a shortstop while simultaneously emphasizing that the club would not “spend like drunken sailors.” This week, speaking at Eduardo Rodriguez’s introductory press conference, Avila struck a similar tone (links via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press and Evan Woodberry of MLive.com).

“One big splash does not win you the offseason,” Avila said, adding that there was never going to be a free agent who could singlehandedly make the Tigers into a contender.

“Obviously, we want to get into the playoffs,” Avila said Tuesday, “but we have to be careful as we move forward. … We have to make sure we can field a good 26-man roster. It’s going to be a measured process. We’re going to be very careful in how we do it.”

It’s important to note that said quotes certainly don’t eliminate the possibility of Detroit beating the market to sign Correa or fellow top free agent Corey Seager. Even with Rodriguez aboard, the Tigers have minimal long-term commitments on the books. Tucker Barnhart and Robbie Grossman are signed through 2022. Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop are signed through 2023. Rodriguez is the only Tiger signed beyond that 2023 season.

That said, if Detroit truly is focused on employing a more “measured” approach, a shorter-term deal for Baez, Semien or Trevor Story would fit the bill. The combination of Rodriguez and any one of that trio would very likely cost less than signing either Correa or Seager on his own, while still providing considerable upgrades over the 2021 roster.

It was an up-and-down season in 2021 for Baez, who’ll turn 29 the day the CBA expires. After a solid first month at the plate, he alternated between brilliant numbers (May, July, September) and awful numbers (June, August) on a month-by-month basis. Notably, he finished out the year with his hottest streak of the season: .347/.426/.554 with five homers and six doubles in 115 September/October plate appearances. Perhaps more encouraging was the fact that following his trade to the Mets, Baez walked at a 7.0% clip that would represent a career-best, while his strikeout rate dropped from 36.3% with the Cubs to a somewhat more manageable 28.5%.

The ups and downs come with the territory for Baez, who’s known as a streaky hitter, but the end result this season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line and 31 homers. That would be an overwhelming upgrade for a Tigers team that saw its shortstops combine to post an awful .201/.275/.321 batting line — and that’s before considering Baez’s status as plus defensive shortstop and plus baserunner.

Baez ostensibly has a fairly wide market in free agency, as he’s also been linked to the Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees and the incumbent Mets — albeit to varying extents.

According to agents and rival executives, Sherman says the Yankees are less full-on participating in the shortstop market than they are “monitoring” the situation and “waiting to see if a market collapses, in which case they might still swoop in to try to sign one.”  For instance, in the event of a league-wide transactions freeze following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, free agents would be in limbo until the freeze was lifted, possibly leading to a sudden surge of deals during Spring Training.  This could create a rushed scenario where one of the top five free agent shortstops can’t find an acceptable long-term deal and could be open to a one-year deal from the Yankees — perhaps akin to the one-year, $25MM pact the Bombers offered Justin Verlander before he re-signed with the Astros.

Even if none of the “big five” shortstops are available at such a price, waiting until later in the offseason might also open up more trade possibilities for the Yankees at the position, Sherman notes.  In any sense, it doesn’t appear that New York is willing to make a long-term commitment at shortstop, and if a multi-year mega-deal is struck, it might be a contract extension for a known quantity like Aaron Judge.

If the Yankees did extend Judge and add prominent names to the rotation or at other positions (i.e. first base or center field), Bronx fans might be satisfied with the team opting to acquire a lesser shortstop than any of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story.  Then again, for a fanbase used to their team splurging on premium talents, sitting out this star-studded market when shortstop is such a clear need probably won’t be received all that well no matter what other players join the roster.  It also puts extra pressure on Volpe and Peraza to produce, as while the duo are highly-regarded minor leaguers, Sherman notes that the Yankees haven’t gotten consistent results from many of their top homegrown position players in recent years.

The December 1 CBA date has added plenty of extra uncertainty and urgency to this year’s offseason market.  Last week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that Seager and Semien could be among the players more eager to get a new deal finalized before the CBA expires.  In in the nine days since Passan’s report, there hasn’t been any inkling that Seager or Semien are particularly close to a contract, though multiple teams (including the Yankees) have been known to be interested in both players.  Of the prominent free agents who have already signed contracts, the majority have been pitchers — Brandon Belt is the only position player within MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list that has already put pen to paper, accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer.

One or more of the top shortstops leaving the market would certainly have an effect the Yankees’ plans to wait out a freeze, but even all of the five big names signing elsewhere might not do much to impact what ultimately might be something of a “plan B” for the team.  If anything, a February signing flurry might allow New York to obtain a stopgap shortstop (their bridge to Volpe and Peraza) at a lesser price, since non-elite free agents are likely to be more heavily affected by a freeze than the names at the top of the market.