Margot, 30, was traded twice last winter, first going from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and then from the Dodgers to the Twins. The Rays agreed to pay the buyout on his option as part of that first trade, and the Dodgers picked up all but $4MM of his salary in that second deal sending him to Minnesota. The Twins used Margot as an affordable fourth outfielder, replacing departed free agent Michael A. Taylor, but didn’t get the results for which they’d hoped.

The 2024 season was Margot’s worst as a big leaguer. He hit just .238/.299/.337 (79 wRC+), and his once-elite defensive grades in the outfield continued their decline in the wake of his notable 2022 knee injury. The Twins were down enough on Margot’s glove to only give him 136 innings in center field. Utilitymen Willi Castro and Austin Martin wound up logging more time in center than Margot, despite neither having anywhere near the same level of experience there. But Margot’s range and sprint speed have declined precipitously since he suffered that knee injury; Statcast credited him in the 88th percentile of big leaguers in sprint speed back in 2021 but just the 53rd percentile in 2024.

To Margot’s credit, he held his own against left-handed pitching, batting .269/.322/.391. That’s still a drop from his career marks, however, and his right-handed bat was completely overmatched by fellow righties on the mound — evidenced by a woeful .208/.257/.283 slash in right-on-right matchups.

As it stands, the Twins enter the offseason with Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner as their projected starting outfield. A right-handed hitter who can play center field if (or when) Buxton misses time and spell lefties Larnach and Wallner at other times could be on the front office’s to-do list. Had Margot performed better, re-signing him at a more affordable rate might’ve been more palatable. As it stands, it seems likely the Twins will instead look for an alternative option.

Both Castro and Martin will return in 2025 — barring a trade of Castro as he enters his final season of club control — but neither is considered an especially adept defender in center. Options on the free agent market could include Randal Grichuk, Austin Slater and the aforementioned Taylor, and the trade and waiver markets will feature myriad alternatives as well. As for Margot, he’ll head to the open market for the first time in his career but could very well be limited to minor league offers on heels of a down season.

Castillo returns to the Twins for his second stint in the majors this year. The 30-year-old righty signed with Minnesota on a minor league deal over the offseason and was selected to the roster at the end of May. He ultimately made just five appearances for the club before being designated for assignment despite a solid 2.57 ERA thanks to worrying peripherals, highlighted by a 10% strikeout rate and an eye-popping 23.3% walk rate. Castillo elected free agency but returned to the Twins on a fresh minor league deal shortly thereafter, and since then has been pitching for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul.

Even so, the results have not been good. While his numbers at Triple-A have been skewed by a disastrous performance where he surrendered five runs while recording just one out last month, he’s still posted a 4.00 ERA with nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7) in nine innings of work since then. While Castillo was among the more reliable late-inning arms in the game from 2018 to 2022 with a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP over that time, it seems extremely unlikely that he’ll be able to recapture that form down the stretch with Minnesota. That being said, his presence on the roster should allow the club to keep its key relief arms like Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax fresher down the stretch by soaking up lower-leverage innings.

As for Helman, the Twins’ eleventh-round pick in the 2018 draft has steadily worked his way through the minor leagues through his career before starting the season at Triple-A this year and delivering strong results. The 28-year-old has slashed .283/.367/.508 with 13 homers, 15 doubles, and ten steals in just 63 games this year at the level, and he’s done that while splitting time between shortstop, center field, second base, third base, and left field. The versatile defender figures to offer the Twins an interesting combination of power and speed off the bench for the stretch run, and his ability to play all over the field will surely come in handy as the club navigates injuries and rest for its regular players.

Also returning to the majors is Lee, the club’s 23-year-old top prospect who struggled to a somewhat lackluster .253/.309/.333 slash line in 110 trips to the plate at the big league level before going on the IL in early August. Now that he’s back in the majors, Lee figures to feature prominently in the club’s infield mix, though with Royce Lewis locking down third base and Willi Castro performing admirably in place of Carlos Correa at shortstop, it’s not clear whether or not Lee will be able to get regular reps as the Twins look to preserve their 3.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card spot.

As for the players moving off the roster to accommodate these additions, Margot’s placement on the IL is hardly a surprise after he suffered an apparent groin strain during last night’s game. After the game, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that the outfielder was “not moving well” due to the issue and would need to undergo an MRI. The results of that MRI are not yet clear, but they evidently warranted a trip to the IL for the 29-year-old outfielder, who has slashed just .250/.302/.350 in 116 games with the club this year.

Meanwhile, Paddack’s placement on the 60-day IL isn’t necessarily a surprise given the fact that he’s already been on the shelf since mid-July due to a forearm strain. A regular season return has long seemed unlikely for the right-hander, but it’s still possible he could return to action at some point in the postseason depending on how far the Twins make it this season. As for Boushley, the lefty has appeared in just two games for the Twins this year after signing a minor league deal with the club over the offseason, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in four innings of work.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.”  It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season.  Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season.  Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching.  Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler.  However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate.  For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season.  Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package.  That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects.  Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Julien, 25, graduated from top prospect status to the Twins’ apparent everyday second baseman last year when he hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers in 408 plate appearances as a rookie. Minnesota felt comfortable enough with the Canadian-born slugger at second base that they traded stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners this offseason when looking for ways to pare back the payroll.

Julien hit .223/.330/.500 with seven homers through the end of April, but he’s since fallen into a slump that’s seen him post a bleak .169/.274/.181 slash over a span of 95 trips to the plate. He’s still walking at a hefty 12.6% clip but has also fanned at a 38% rate during that slump (and in 34% of his plate appearances on the season overall). Julien’s extremely patient approach has helped him walk in nearly 15% of his MLB plate appearances, but that patience can border on passivity as well. Jonathan India is the only qualified hitter in baseball who’s swung at fewer pitches than Julien’s 37%.

The monthlong slump will make Julien the roster casualty for the return of Lewis, who’s been Minnesota’s best hitter when healthy dating back to his 2022 debut. Injuries have marred Lewis’ career to date — he’s twice torn his right ACL and has been out since Opening Day due to a quad strain — but the 2017 No. 1 overall draft pick is a .313/.369/.564 hitter (159 wRC+) in 282 MLB plate appearances. He also swatted four homers in 26 postseason playoff appearances last year (in addition to homering in his first at-bat of the 2024 regular season).

With Lewis reclaiming the regular third base job and Julien headed to St. Paul, the Twins’ infield will take on a different look. Jose Miranda has been the team’s primary third baseman and, after a lost 2023 season, has reemerged as a key contributor. The 25-year-old Miranda (26 later this month) is another former Twins top prospect who impressed as a rookie in 2022, popping 15 homers and batting .268/.325/.426 in 483 plate appearances. He tried to play through a shoulder impingement that eventually required surgery last season, hitting just .211/.263/.303 in 40 big league games.

Now that his shoulder is back at full strength, Miranda looks like his old self. He’s taken 151 turns at the plate and delivered a quite-productive .280/.311/.469 slash with six homers and nine doubles. Miranda doesn’t walk much (3.3% this season, 5.3% career) but puts the ball in play at a very high rate (14.6% strikeout rate this year, 17.4% career) and has plenty of extra-base pop. Though he played some second base in the minors, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll do so at this point. He’ll rotate between the infield corners and designated hitter, but utilityman Willi Castro figures to pick up the bulk of playing time at second base. The switch-hitting Castro is out to a .260/.335/.420 start and has experience playing all over the diamond.

The Twins could’ve made a more aggressive roster decision, cutting ties with a struggling veteran instead. But Carlos Santana has rebounded from an awful start to bat .253/.340/.434 over the past 30 days. Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot both have ugly numbers on the whole, but as Hayes notes, Margot is hitting left-handers fairly well and Farmer is valued both for his defensive versatility and his leadership in the clubhouse. Optioning Julien also preserves depth in a way that parting with someone like Farmer or Margot would not; both players could reject outright assignments to the minors in favor of free agency.

The Twins’ infield crunch falls into the “good problem to have” bucket of cliches. Julien’s demotion certainly doesn’t change the organization’s view that he can be a valuable long-term contributor, but he’ll head to Triple-A for what’s likely to be a relatively short-term reset. Presumably, in the event of an injury in the infield or at just about any non-catcher spot among the team’s position-player corps, Julien would be the first man back up. (Castro could slide right back into a super-utility role or into an everyday outfield role.)

From a service time vantage point, Julien’s slump could potentially cost him, however. He entered the season with 135 days of MLB service. Had he stayed in the majors for good, he’d have been a slam-dunk Super Two player following the 2025 season. It’s still possible he reaches that designation but is now far from a sure thing. Julien has already reached one full year of MLB service, so this assignment won’t impact his timeline to free agency, but it could potentially cost him a fourth trip through the arbitration process.

The Twins placed right-hander Josh Winder on the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot for Margot, announcing that Winder has a scapular stress fracture. His exact timeline in unclear but he’ll be ineligible to rejoin the club until late May at the earliest.

Minnesota has been on the lookout for a right-handed-hitting outfielder who could cover all three spots for much of the offseason. They’d previously been tied to free agents like Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernandez, and they’d also maintained an interest in re-signing Michael A. Taylor, who belted 21 home runs as a Twin in 2023. However, it seems they’ve found a deal to their liking on the trade front, presumably ending those free agent pursuits.

In Margot, the Twins are acquiring that righty bat they’ve been seeking but are also buying low on a player who’s been hampered by knee troubles dating back to the 2022 season. Margot missed roughly half of the ’22 campaign with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. He was limited to just 363 plate appearances and turned in a solid, if unspectacular .274/.325/.375 slash (101 wRC+). He followed that up with a .264/.310/.376 line in 336 plate appearances this past season.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But in the wake of that knee injury, his once-elite defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -3 on the season, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him at +3. Either way, it’s a notable drop for a player who posted 13 DRS and 16 OAA as recently as 2021. The Twins, presumably, are confident that as Margot distances himself from that knee injury, he can rebound in the field — if not back to peak form than at least to a clearly above-average defender at all three spots.

In Minnesota, Margot will provide the Twins with some insurance in the event of another injury to rarely-healthy center fielder Byron Buxton. Beyond that, he’ll give the Twins a righty bat that can spell lefty-swingers Matt Wallner and Max Kepler in the corners. Margot is a career .281/.341/.420 hitter (109 wRC+) against left-handed pitching, so he’ll likely see his fair share of pinch-hitting opportunities for a Twins club that tends to play matchups throughout the game. Margot can also serve as a late-game defensive upgrade in left over Wallner or a late-game pinch runner. Even with a downturn in his sprint speed, he still ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players last year, per Statcast.

The Twins will also pick up Doncon, a 20-year-old infielder who signed with the Dodgers for just under $500K as an international amateur during the 2021-22 signing period. FanGraphs ranked him 12th among Los Angeles prospects as recently as last season, touting potentially plus raw power and an above-average hit tool as his best tools. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him 19th among L.A. farmhands just last week.

Doncon has played shortstop, second base and third base in the Dodgers’ system and climbed as high as A-ball during 2023 — his age-19 season. He spent the entire year at that level and posted underwhelming numbers (.216/.283/.368) — but did so against much older competition. Scouting reports suggest he’ll have to move to either third base, second base or the outfield as he fills out his projectable 6’2″, 176-pound frame. Doncon possesses significant power potential but questions about his pitch recognition and eventual defensive home. He’s a couple years off from being a potential big league factor, but at this point he’s a more highly regarded prospect than Miller.

Doncon’s inclusion in the deal aligns with the Twins’ general M.O. in deals of this nature; Minnesota tends to push trade partners to include prospects of varying quality even when they’re the team acquiring the established player (e.g. Jose Salas in the Pablo Lopez trade, Gabriel Gonzalez in the Jorge Polanco deal, Ronny Henriquez in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa swap, Brayan Medina in the Chris Paddack trade, Francis Peguero in the Sonny Gray trade, etc.).

As for the Dodgers’ end of things, they’ll add a former supplemental first-rounder in the deal. Miller, 21, was the No. 36 overall pick by the Twins in 2021 but hasn’t lived up to that billing at the plate thus far. He’s regarded as a solid defender at shortstop but has posted only a .220/.326/.318 batting line in the minor leagues, including a .223/.309/.340 slash in High-A last year. Miller gives the Dodgers a glove-first shortstop option who can begin the 2024 season either with a second run at High-A or in Double-A. Even if his bat never comes around, there’s utility upside for Miller within the next few years based on the quality of his defense.

Like Doncon, it should be noted Miller’s pedestrian production in 2023 came against much older and more advanced competition. Both players were more than two years younger than the average player at their respective minor league levels. Neither needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 season.

As with the Twins getting Doncon included in this deal, the Dodgers’ acquisition of Miller fits a recent pattern. Los Angeles has bought low on recent high-profile draftees that needn’t be added to their 40-man roster this winter while performing maintenance to make room for new acquisitions. In addition to Miller, the Dodgers picked up former Yankees first-rounder Trey Sweeney in their Victor Gonzalez swap and former Cubs second-rounder Jackson Ferris in trading away Michael Busch.

Perhaps most importantly for the Dodgers, the trade of Margot frees up a roster space. In that sense, this trade has largely facilitated the team’s re-signing of utilityman Enrique Hernandez to a one-year contract. The Twins had been in the mix to sign Hernandez and were reportedly one of four finalists. Instead they’ll go with a hitter who’s been more productive over the past few seasons and can capably fill the same role in the outfield, but lacks the infield versatility. Taking on $4MM of Margot’s deal makes the transactions cash-neutral for the Dodgers, who subsequently guaranteed Hernandez the same amount in free agency.

Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported that Margot had been traded to Minnesota. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Miller was going back to Los Angeles. Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported Doncon’s inclusion in the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN added that the Dodgers were sending cash to the Twins as well. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic first reported the Twins were taking on $4MM.

While Falvey didn’t rule out the possibility of further acquisitions, he implied the bulk of the offseason team-building is complete. “Realistically, with where our team is, with how the roster now is built out, with the way it looks, obviously we’ll keep monitoring where our roster is, the health of it. But this was the primary focus for us over the last little bit. I would say that’s by and large the big-picture items, but we’ll keep an open mind about different opportunities that present along the way,” the baseball operations leader said (via Gleeman).

Roster Resource calculates their payroll in the $127MM range, which aligns with early-offseason reporting that they were targeting a payroll between $125MM and $140MM. Margot adds insurance behind Byron Buxton, who is returning to center field after knee injuries limited him to designated hitter a year ago. He also adds a righty complement to left-handed hitting corner outfielders Matt Wallner and Max Kepler. The Twins recently brought in Carlos Santana — a switch-hitter who typically fares better from the right side — to balance a lineup that was quite a bit better against righty pitching than left-handed arms a year ago.

They’re also retaining righty-hitting utilityman Kyle Farmer for a second season. Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds last winter. He had a decent year, appearing in 120 games and hitting .256/.317/.408 with 11 home runs. Between league average offense and the ability to handle anywhere on the infield, Farmer is a good depth player. Still, his rising arbitration price led to speculation he’d be traded or non-tendered, particularly with the Twins announcing early in the winter they were scaling back spending relative to last year.

Farmer acknowledged this weekend that he doubted whether he’d be back in Minnesota (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). “I always saw myself here, but all the trade rumors and non-tender stuff, I figured I wasn’t going to be here. It worked out good,” Farmer said. He admitted that it wasn’t until the late-January deal sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle that he was confident he’d remain with the Twins.

Minnesota and Farmer agreed to a $6.05MM salary for his final season of arbitration. He’ll likely collect a $250K buyout in lieu of a $6.25MM mutual option and become a free agent for the first time next winter. Farmer should occupy a similar multi-positional role as he played a year ago. Edouard Julien is stepping in at second base alongside Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and the Santana/Alex Kirilloff tandem throughout the infield.

Lewis showed the kind of talent that made him the first overall pick seven years ago. He raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season contests and blasted four homers in six playoff games. He’s locked in as the starter at third base and looks like a franchise building block so long as he can stay healthy after twice tearing the ACL in his right knee.

The Twins have Lewis under club control for another five seasons. He’ll play this year on a near-minimum salary and qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. There’s no particular urgency for Minnesota to try to lock him up on a long-term deal, which Lewis acknowledged (via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes).

“I would love to hear anything, but I don’t think right now they’re in a position to do that,” Lewis said about an extension. “Especially with the payroll and the TV stuff going down, they have some stuff financially they have to figure out first. I’m last on the totem pole.” The 24-year-old indicated he’d be receptive if the organization did make extension overtures but downplayed any urgency to lock in short-term earnings. Lewis acknowledged he’s “definitely financially secure” after signing for a $6.73MM bonus out of high school.

His asking price on an extension would only escalate so long as he remains healthy into his arbitration seasons. Yet it’s understandable if the Twins want to see a full year against MLB pitching (to say nothing of gaining clarity on their local TV deal) before seriously engaging in talks. Falvey spoke broadly of a willingness to consider extension possibilities with the team’s young players but told Hayes and other reporters the focus with Lewis is “(making) sure he’s on the field the full year and (continuing) to build into what he’s already scratched the surface on in his career.“

December 16, 3:33pm: USAToday’s Bob Nightengale relays the full contract breakdown for Glasnow, reporting that the 2028 player option is worth $21.5MM. This accounts for the previously unexplained $1.5MM discrepancy between the reported contract breakdown and the Dodgers’ announced $136.5MM figure.

12:08pm: The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot, and $4MM in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.  News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension.  That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5MM.  Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.

As per the terms reported yesterday by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the new contract will see Glasnow earn $110MM in new money over the course of the 2025-28 seasons.  Glasnow was already slated to earn $25MM in 2024 according to the terms of his prior contract with the Rays, and the new deal with L.A. breaks down as $90MM in salary over the 2025-27 seasons, and then the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on Glasnow’s services for 2028.  If the team declines that option, Glasnow can exercise a $20MM player option for 2028.  Since Passan’s numbers only add up to $135MM rather than the Dodgers’ announced figure of $136.5MM, that extra $1.5MM has yet to be accounted for, possibly a signing bonus or a bit of extra guaranteed money on one of the years.

Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM mega-deal with the Dodgers from last week, Glasnow’s extension doesn’t contain any deferred money.  As such, it will be entirely portioned out onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax bills based on a $27.3MM average annual value over the next five seasons.  According to Roster Resource’s calculations, Los Angeles has an estimated luxury tax number of roughly $253.7MM for 202 — still under the $257MM secondary CBT tier, thanks to all of Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his tax-related AAV to $46MM per season.  Still, with a number of roster needs still be addressed, the Dodgers’ tax bill could certainly still approach or exceed the next penalty tier of $277MM between now and Opening Day.

Glasnow has been seen as a possible trade candidate basically since the moment he inked his previous two-year, $30.35MM extension with Tampa Bay during the 2022 season.  Signed when Glasnow was recovering from Tommy John surgery, the deal saw $25MM of the salary backloaded into the 2024 season, making it likely that the cost-conscious Rays would try to unload the right-hander beforehand.

The 30-year-old’s availability dovetailed with the Dodgers’ need for pitching this winter, as the Los Angeles rotation is full of injury-related question marks (i.e. Walker Buehler, and possibly Dustin May at midseason), pitchers without much big league experience (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone), and a swingman in Ryan Yarbrough who may be best suited for bullpen duty.  Pepiot was another member of that young crop of arms, but he’ll now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his third season of MLB duty.

In moving Glasnow and Margot and factoring in the $4MM in cash considerations, the Rays unloaded $33MM worth of salary for two players making the Major League minimum, in a move reminiscent of many budget-trimming, sell-high types of trades Tampa has become known for over the years.  The Rays’ success rate in these deals is almost a cliche by this point, and even if Tampa Bay fans have become weary of the team’s continual roster churn and perpetually low-spending ways, the Rays’ ability to field competitive teams speaks for itself.  Pepiot figures to step right into the rotation spot left open by Glasnow, while Deluca may not be guaranteed a spot in the Opening Day outfield, but he’ll at least be part of the shuttle heading back and forth between Triple-A since the outfielder has two minor league option years remaining.

The right-handed hitting Margot figures to move into a part-time role in the Dodgers’ outfield picture, acting as a complement to the left-handed James Outman and Jason Heyward.  Margot has played primarily as a center fielder and right fielder, thus lining up well with Outman and Heyward’s projected positions.  Mookie Betts will be taking over as the Dodgers’ new everyday second baseman in 2024, so it’s safe to guess that L.A. will aim to add more outfield depth if Betts will be spending most of his time on the dirt.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams broke down the Glasnow extension in larger detail yesterday, while Darragh McDonald outlined the news of the four-player trade agreement for MLBTR on Thursday.  Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest first reported the four principal players in the trade.  Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on the extension.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the Rays’ inclusion of the $4MM in salary offset.

Should they fail to land Yamamoto, Sammon suggests that the club doesn’t plan on pivoting to other top-of-the-market free agents such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Rather, Sammon suggests the Mets could pivot to a mid-market arm like Lucas Giolito, who the club has previously been reported to have interest in as they focus on shorter term, one- and two-year contracts to plug holes on their roster. Indications have percolated since the trade deadline that the Mets view 2024 as something of a transitory year where they hope to thread the needle between staying competitive and focusing on 2025 and beyond, and Sammon’s report is the latest among those signals.

In addition to their aforementioned goal of securing pitching help, Sammon suggests that the club could look to add a regular outfielder to their lineup as well as a right-handed hitting third baseman to replace the injured Ronny Mauricio in the club’s third base mix alongside Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle. Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, and Joc Pederson are among the outfield options who may be available on short-term deals, while the likes of Gio Urshela and Justin Turner could help the club solidify its infield mix.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

• Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander spoke to reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) today in the wake of the trade that sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers. While Neander acknowledged that the club loses some “certainty” in dealing way Glasnow and Margot, he also suggested that he sees both Pepiot and DeLuca as players who could impact the big league club in the near future Neander was particularly effusive in his praise of Pepiot, who he suggested has “a very good chance to be a good major-league starter” and could be “very close” to reaching that potential. Per Topkin, the deal will save the Rays $33MM in 2024 as Tampa Bay will pay the Dodgers just $2MM of the $4MM cash included in the trade this season, with the remaining $2MM to be paid out next offseason in the event that the Dodgers decline their $12MM option on Margot, which would cover the $2MM buyout on that option.
• Orioles closer Felix Bautista spoke to reporters this evening, including MLB.com’s Jake Rill and AJ Cassavell, and provided an update on his health after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in October. Bautista told the pair that his recovery from the surgery is going well, and that he’s “doing everything he can” to get back onto the field. That return to the mound won’t occur in 2024, as Bautista is expected to miss the entire campaign while rehabbing. With the right-hander expected back in time for Spring Training 2025, Bautista and the Orioles got together on a two-year extension upon the announcement of his surgery back in September.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

Margot, 29, has been a solid contributor to this point in his career, largely serving as a strong defender with offense just a bit under league average. Since getting traded from the Padres to the Rays prior to 2020, he has hit .264/.317/.375 for a wRC+ of 97. He also stole 41 bases in that time while generally producing above-average defensive grades: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +21 Outs Above Average and a grade of +1.9 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Those numbers slipped a bit in 2023 but they can often be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and Margot was recovering from a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee in 2022.

Going into the 2022 season, Margot and the Rays agreed to an extension that runs through 2024. He’ll make a salary of $10MM next year and there’s a $12MM mutual option for 2025 with a $2MM buyout. Since mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, teams will consider Margot to have one year and $12MM remaining on his deal. That’s a perfectly suitable price point for a decent regular. Jackie Bradley Jr. got two years and $24MM from the Brewers a few years back. Kevin Kiermaier got one year and $9MM from the Jays despite being 33 years old and coming off hip surgery. Eddie Rosario got two years and $18MM from Atlanta.

But the Rays have often traded away players as they approach free agency, both as a way to keep costs down and to perpetually restock their farm system. The club’s payroll for next year is currently slated to be $126MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve never gone beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few members of their arbitration class will likely wind up non-tendered and the club seems to have some willingness to push payroll upwards next year, but it seems like some cuts are still going to be necessary.

There have been some rumors about Tyler Glasnow trades of late, unsurprising given his talent and $25MM salary in 2024, but a Margot trade would surely be more palatable from Tampa’s perspective. Their rotation suffered a large number of injuries in 2023, with each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen set to miss some or all of 2024 while rehabbing from surgery. Subtracting Glasnow would leave the club with a rotation of Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Shane Baz, Zack Littell and Taj Bradley. They might be able to get by with such a group but it’s much stronger with Glasnow in it and the club is surely aware how quickly depth can evaporate due to injuries.

Subtracting Margot from the outfield, on the other hand, would not appear to be as risky. They would still have Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri and Josh Lowe as regulars, with players like Luke Raley, Greg Jones, Jonathan Aranda, Vidal Bruján and Harold Ramírez having varying degrees of outfield capabilities as well. Even if the club considers that group unsatisfactory, they could patch together some extra depth via minor league deals and waiver claims. The cost savings of flipping Margot would be less than half of a Glasgow deal but the former would be more appealing in terms of roster construction.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has frankly admitted that they need a couple of outfielders to be slotted next to Aaron Judge. They recently tried to insert Harrison Bader into their center field gap but he didn’t hit much and was often injured, eventually being placed on waivers as the 2023 season was winding down. Jasson Domínguez made his major league debut in Bader’s absence but required Tommy John surgery, leaving the club looking for answers there yet again.

Players like Jake Bauers and Estevan Florial are some of the options currently on the roster but the Yanks would surely like to upgrade there. Bauers hit .202/.279/.413 in 2023. Florial shows some exciting tools at times but he almost always strikes out around 30% of the time wherever he’s playing. Oswaldo Cabrera hit .211/.275/.299 last year in a utility role. Everson Pereira has similar strikeout concerns to Florial and hit .151/.233/.194 in his first 27 major league games.

Trades between division rivals can be tricky and the Yanks might also have caution about Margot’s injury history, something Rosenthal points out. The Yanks have been snakebit in recent years by seeing many of their acquisitions hitting the injured list, such as Frankie Montas hardly being able to pitch for them after being acquired from the A’s. Margot has gone to the injured list in each of the past four years, with his 125 games played in 2021 the only time he got into triple digits during that stretch.

As for the Mets, Starling Marte battled groin issues that kept him to 86 games of subpar production, making him an unknown going into 2024. Mark Canha and Tommy Pham were traded prior to the deadline and are no longer in the mix. Acquiring some outfield help to bolster the group around Brandon Nimmo makes plenty of sense. DJ Stewart went on a torrid hot streak late last year, hitting 11 home runs in 58 games, but he’s generally considered a poor defender. Acquiring a glove-first outfielder like Nimmo could push Stewart into a bench bat/designated hitter role.

The Yankees, Mets and other clubs with interest in Margot could also look to the free agent market for outfielders, but that would likely mean forking out more money than what Margot is set to make. Cody Bellinger is going to require a nine-figure guarantee while players like Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should get sizeable eight-figure deals. Even players somewhat similar to Margot, such as Kiermaier and Bader, are likely going to find multi-year deals somewhere.

Margot isn’t coming off a great year and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 before he reaches free agency next winter. As such, it’s only natural that he’s among the names the Rays are peddling as they look to retool the roster, scale back payroll and simultaneously remain competitive. The Rays have Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and several utility types who can handle both the infield and outfield. The possibility of trading Margot and bringing in a backup outfielder (via trade or free agency) at a lower salary point remains.

Margot’s .264/.310/.376 batting line in 336 plate appearances this past season is right in line with the .264/.317/.375 line he’s posted in four total seasons as a member of the Rays. It checked in a bit below average, albeit not egregiously so.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But Margot missed the bulk of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his usual strong (at times elite) defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023, which perhaps isn’t all that surprising for a player coming off a major knee injury. The question for potential trade partners is whether Margot can be expected to rebound to his previous defensive heights or whether this is the new norm moving forward.

Clubs will likely have varying opinions on that front, though Margot’s overall track record ought to carry some appeal. That’s especially true in a thin free-agent market for outfielders. Not every team will want to pursue a nine-figure deal with Cody Bellinger, and some teams might well be turned off by the possibility of overcommitting to Kevin Kiermaier on the heels of a strong season. Free agent Harrison Bader offers a similar skill set to Margot and had a better year defensively but lesser year at the plate. Michael A. Taylor has an excellent glove and more pop than Margot but much higher strikeout rates and lower on-base marks.

Given the thin market for proven outfield help, Margot ought to command interest on the trade market — even if the return isn’t enormous. Let’s run through a few potential fits, excluding his AL East rivals. These certainly aren’t the only possible destinations, but any of the following teams make sense as a candidate to target a short-term, versatile option in the outfield:

• Marlins: Newly minted president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was the Rays’ general manager before being hired by Miami. The Marlins have been on the lookout for a center fielder for the past several years but have struggled to fill the void — so much so that the Fish moved shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field last year. Miami could line up on a trade bringing Margot aboard to handle center field, thus moving Chisholm back to the infield. The Marlins don’t have an obvious everyday shortstop at present, and the market for quality options at that position is even more barren than in the outfield.
• Giants: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has spoken openly about his desire to add some more athleticism and range to his outfield. Even with Margot’s step back in 2023, he still had above-average range and sprint speed. He’d be an upgrade, defensively speaking, over much of the San Francisco outfield mix even if he never fully rediscovers his once-elite range. Margot would allow the Giants to give Luis Matos some extra time in Triple-A after rushing to the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2023. And if Matos eventually forces his way onto the scene, Margot could join Austin Slater and Mitch Haniger as right-handed complements to lefty outfielders like Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto.
• D-backs: Arizona’s excellent young outfield was a major factor in their unexpected run to the 2023 World Series, but with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hitting the market, the Snakes are once again looking at an all-left-handed mix of Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher. Margot gives them a right-handed option to provide manager Torey Lovullo with some matchup options.
• Phillies: The Phils currently look as though they’ll give former top prospect Cristian Pache, who’s out of minor league options, another look as a reserve outfielder. Last year’s .238/.319/.417 slash in 95 plate appearances was better than anything Pache has ever done in the big leagues (career .173/.230/.273). Maybe they’ve unlocked something in his offensive profile, but Margot would be more reliable at the plate while still providing a potential righty complement to Brandon Marsh and a late-game defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos.
• Mariners: The Mariners and Rays have lined up on approximately six thousand trades since Jerry Dipoto was hired to oversee baseball operations for Seattle, and with a pair of young lefties (Jarred Kelenic, Cade Marlowe) currently slated to patrol the outfield corners in 2024, there’s another potential fit here. Margot would be a younger (and slightly more expensive) veteran to fill the same role the M’s tried for with AJ Pollock in 2023. Perhaps the M’s feel in-house options like Sam Haggerty and/or Dylan Moore can capably handle this role, but Haggerty has never topped 201 plate appearances in a big league seasons, while Moore battled injuries in 2023 and saw an already problematic strikeout rate spike to 34%.
• Rockies: Brenton Doyle was an elite defender in his debut season but also one of the least-productive hitters in MLB. Nolan Jones, a converted infielder, is the Rockies’ most established outfielder at the moment. Margot could be acquired at a relatively low cost and plugged in as a semi-regular in an outfield that lacks much in the way of certainty. It’s plenty arguable that the Rox shouldn’t be trading anything to acquire short-term pieces like Margot, but they’ve staunchly resisted a rebuild for several years and will probably try to bolster the roster to some extent again this winter.
• Angels: Mickey Moniak’s breakout season came with massive platoon splits, and Margot would serve as a natural right-handed pairing with the former No. 1 overall pick while providing an alternative in center, should Mike Trout again spend time on the injured list. The Angels have Jo Adell as a potential right-handed complement in the outfield, but Margot is a superior defender who might be better served for such a part-time role.
• Rangers: Leody Taveras struggled in the second half of the 2023 season, and impressive as Evan Carter was in his late debut and throughout the postseason, he still has all of 147 plate appearances against Major League pitching at just 21 years of age. Margot would give Texas a true fourth outfielder — something they currently lack — in addition to insurance for Carter regression, continued struggles for Taveras or another injury for star right fielder Adolis Garcia.
• Twins: It might be simpler for the Twins to simply re-sign Taylor, although peak Margot has a better glove and about half the strikeout rate of the Twins’ departing free-agent outfielder. Minnesota is trying to scale back payroll, making this an imperfect fit unless the Rays are interested in taking back some money to fill a need of their own (e.g. Christian Vazquez). Money aside, Margot would offer a natural complement to young lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach while also giving the Twins a capable reserve in center, should Byron Buxton miss time yet again.

Unsurprisingly, that’s thrust several notable Rays players into the rumor mill. Chief among them is ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s set to earn $25MM in 2024 before reaching free agency. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times have written in the past 24 hours on the potential of a Glasnow trade at some point this offseason. As Rosenthal points out, the Rays figure to extend a qualifying offer to Glasnow following the ’24 season if he’s not traded, and the potentially recouped draft pick will factor into what already figures to be a lofty asking price.

The Rays will be able to hold out for a larger return, knowing they’d have another opportunity to shop Glasnow at the trade deadline if their season goes south. Even if they hold onto Glasnow for the whole year, the draft pick they pick up would likely come at the end of the first round of the ’25 draft. They’d need a trade package to outweigh not only a full season of Glasnow but also a draft pick around No. 30. Similarly, any team acquiring Glasnow in the offseason would be acquiring the right to make that QO themselves. The compensatory pick another club would receive for qualifying Glasnow would be dependent on that team’s revenue-sharing and luxury-tax statuses, but it’ll clearly factor into valuing a Glasnow package for both the Rays and potential trade partners.

At the time Glasnow signed his extension in 2022, it was genuinely surprising to see him ink a deal that bought out just one free-agent year — even as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow spoke candidly about how Tampa Bay was where he wanted to be. Any player signing a long-term deal with the Rays likely does so knowing that an eventual trade is a possibility, however.

Glasnow’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery was hampered by an oblique injury, although he still posted 120 good innings: 3.53 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 51.2% ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (3.08) felt he pitched quite a bit better than his earned run average would otherwise indicate. With 120 innings under his belt and more than two years elapsed since his surgery, it stands to reason that there won’t be many (if any) innings restrictions on Glasnow in 2024.

There’s no indication a Glasnow trade is close or even necessarily likely. Interest in him will persist so long as he remains with the Rays, as their payroll situation is obvious and demand for high-end rotation help is always strong. For the time being, however, a far more pressing trade candidate could be right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, whom Topkin suggests is a candidate to change hands with this week’s deadlines to set 40-man rosters prior  to the Rule 5 Draft (Tuesday) and to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players (Friday).

The 29-year-old Ramirez doesn’t bring much defensive value to the table, having operated primarily as a designated hitter this past season. He’s logged time at first base and in both outfield corners in the past, though he hasn’t graded out all that well. However, Ramirez also slashed a robust .313/.353/.460 this season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $4.4MM salary in 2024.

The Rays control Ramirez for another two seasons, but they’re already a heavily right-handed team and might want to open some more flexibility at the designated hitter spot. There’s also the question of whether Ramirez can be expected to repeat this past season’s career-best production. The bulk of his damage came against lefties, whom he tattooed at a ridiculous .387/.411/.555 clip — but that was with the benefit of a sky-high .447 average on balls in play. That’ll be tough to repeat, though Ramirez’s knack for putting the ball in play (career 17.8% strikeout rate) has helped him maintain a lifetime .289 average in the big leagues. He doesn’t supplement that with many walks or all that much power, but he’s a clearly a talented hitter who could pique the interest of any club looking for a righty bat to plug into its first base/corner outfield/DH mix.

Along those same lines, Topkin lists Manuel Margot as a possible trade candidate. The fleet-footed outfielder has previously graded as a plus defender across all three spots, though last year’s defensive grades took a dip after he missed most of the 2022 season due to patellar tendon strain in his right knee. The righty-swinging Margot turned in a .264/.310/.376 slash in 2023 and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 — the final season of his contract.

Margot could draw interest from clubs looking for a right-handed bat to play across the outfield — particularly if an interested party believes that his defensive ratings will tick back up the further removed he is from that significant knee injury. To be clear, Margot didn’t necessarily grade as a poor outfielder, but last year’s -3 Defensive Runs Saved and +3 Outs Above Average were well shy of the respective marks of 13 and 16 that he posted in his last full, healthy season (2021).

Margot’s production at the plate last year aligned almost perfectly with his broader marks in four seasons with the Rays, for whom he’s been a .264/.317/.375 hitter. In particular, Margot has been a thorn in the side of left-handers, posting a career .281/.341/.420 line when holding the platoon advantage. The Rays have several other outfield options (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Ramirez, Greg Jones) and a knack for finding undervalued bats on the trade market, which could make them all the more willing to move Margot for future pieces while simultaneously paring back payroll in a meaningful way.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline.  Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg.  The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season.  The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due.  That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season.  An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation.  Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure.  Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option).  Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers.  Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid.  Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield.  Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts.  Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star.  That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability.  Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

The de facto ace of Baltimore’s pitching staff during the club’s rebuild, Means posted a 3.72 ERA over 353 1/3 innings for the O’s from 2019-2022, though TJ surgery ended his 2022 season after only two starts and eight innings.  Between that procedure and then a back strain that delayed his rehab earlier this year, Means hasn’t much contributed to the Orioles resurgence that included a winning record in 2022 and now the American League’s best record in 2023.  Naturally, Means is both “really excited to compete again” in general, and especially for a team that suddenly looks like a World Series contender.  It remains to be seen how exactly he’ll fit into the Orioles’ pitching plans, and Means said that he hasn’t talked to the club yet about starting or relieving, though he is open to either.

More from around the AL East…

• Jason Adam has played two games of catch since going on the 15-day IL, and the Rays reliever isn’t reporting any soreness from the left oblique strain that has kept him from pitching since August 27.  While there’s still plenty of fluidity to Adam’s status, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that the club is tentatively hoping Adam can return when the Rays open their next homestand on September 19.
• In other Rays health updates, Manuel Margot is slated for a minor league rehab game on Tuesday.  The outfielder underwent elbow surgery in mid-August, and is roughly on track with his initial recovery timeline of 3-4 weeks.  Ackert also spoke with Shane Baz, who is continuing to make progress from his September 2022 Tommy John surgery and is looking to start throwing live batting practice sessions in the instructional league by the end of September.  “I will have a pretty normal offseason and then it’s full-go in spring,” Baz said.
• The Yankees called up right-hander Matt Bowman and left-hander Anthony Misiewicz from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, after optioning relievers Ron Marinaccio and Matt Krook to Triple-A after yesterday’s game.  Misiewicz is set to make his debut in the pinstripes after New York claimed the southpaw off waivers from the Tigers back in July, as Misiewicz has thus far spent his Yankees tenure in the minors.  For Bowman, the righty is now set to make his first MLB appearance since 2019, when he was a member of the Reds.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and recovering from a Tommy John surgery, Bowman didn’t pitch at all from 2020-22 before returning to toss 56 Triple-A frames this season.
• Jasson Dominguez was a late scratch from the Yankees lineup today, as the rookie outfielder is dealing with right elbow inflammation.  The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, but it’s an unfortunate setback for a player who has brought some spark to a disappointing season in the Bronx.  In his first 33 Major League plate appearances, “the Martian” has already hit four homers en route to a .980 OPS.