However, the Padres end up filling out their rotation come Opening Day, one potential candidate to start has been eliminated at this point: left-hander Adrian Morejon. According to a report from Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune yesterday, club manager Mike Shildt spoke about Morejon’s place on the roster yesterday and gave the lefty a vote of confidence in a relief role.

“Adrián has found a really nice niche in the bullpen,” Shildt said, as relayed by Sanders. “It’s a spot that we think he’s not only going to do as well as he did last year, but take the next step and he’s excited about remaining in the bullpen and just being a dominant guy in that spot.”

That’s a bit of a reversal from earlier this winter, when Morejon was among a handful of relievers identified by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller as potential rotation converts. Moving players from the bullpen to the rotation has become quite popular around the game in recent years, and Preller’s decision to sign Seth Lugo as part of the club’s rotation mix and Lugo’s subsequent transformation into a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm was a catalyst for that growing popularity.

Morejon was as sensible a candidate for such a conversion as any given his history as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, though given that 2024 was Morejon’s first healthy season as a big leaguer it’s understandable that the club has decided to keep him in the bullpen rather than risk more injuries by stretching him out. Stephen Kolek and Bryan Hoeing have also been discussed as potential converts to the rotation, but it remains unclear whether that’s still on the table for them entering camp or if, like Morejon, the Padres plan to keep them in relief roles for 2025. It’s even possible those decisions have not yet been made given the uncertainty surrounding the club’s rotation amid rumors of the club trading Cease or King.

Turning to the positional side of things, veteran third baseman Manny Machado spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday about the progress his elbow has made since undergoing offseason surgery last winter. That surgery cost him the final days of the 2023 season and kept him from returning to his typical post as the Padres’ regular third baseman until May, and continued to mix in occasional DH days throughout the first half. Machado noted that he dealt with the “lingering effects” of his surgery throughout the 2024 campaign, but made clear that “everything” has been different for him this offseason as he’s now “back to normal” for the first time post-surgery.

Whether that will be enough to help catapult the 32-year-old back into the .280/.352/.504 (130 wRC+) form he showed during his first four seasons in a Padres uniform remains to be seen, but it’s surely an encouraging sign for Padres fans that Machado is feeling healthier than he was last season, when he posted a 122 wRC+ with 3.6 fWAR. The veteran slugger has nine years left on the 11-year, $350MM deal he signed prior to the 2023 season, so Machado’s ability to maintain star-caliber production into his mid-to-late 30’s will be key to the Padres’ success over the coming decade.

While the Padres have been preparing for the coming season on the field and in the front office, a squabble between ownership stakeholders has been going on in the background. While the Padres announced back in December that Peter Seidler’s brother John Seidler was poised to take over as the franchise control person, that was seemingly put on hold when Peter’s widow, Sheel Seidler, filed a lawsuit against Peter’s other two brothers (and trustees of The Peter Seidler Trust) Matt and Bob Seidler. Matt Seidler subsequently filed a response to that lawsuit last week, and as the legal battle surrounding the role of Padres control person continues plenty of speculation has gone on among fans and media members about the future of the franchise.

As noted in a column by Matt Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times yesterday, however, one thing the Seidler brothers are resolute on is their commitment to owning the Padres. Shaikin notes that the brothers have “no plans to sell the Padres to anyone.” That apparently includes Sheel Seidler, whose legal counsel Dane Butswinkas, Shaikin reports, refused to answer whether or not she is attempting to buy her former brothers-in-law out of the franchise.

“Ideally, we would like to resolve this with the brothers,” Butswinksas said, as relayed by Shaikin. “However, for that to occur, it would take some level of cooperation from them. So far, we have seen no signs of that happening. The current path towards resolution, unfortunately, is through litigation, which we know can drag on for years and would be in no one’s interest.”

The possibility of a sale comes up in Shaikin’s piece, which MLBTR readers are encouraged to read in full, as part of a larger discussion about recent legal disputes between stakeholders within ownership groups in instances of divorce, illness, or death affecting a club’s primary owner. Those disputes, as Shaikin notes, have a history of being resolved through the sale of the team. Former Padres owner John Moores and, more recently, the Angelos family that formerly owned the Orioles are among previous owners who have sold their teams amid legal battles within the team’s ownership structure.

Machado had been limited to designated hitter for the first few weeks. Last October, he underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow. The offseason provided enough of a recovery window for Machado to resume hitting by Opening Day, but he wasn’t quite ready to throw at the level needed to play the left side of the infield. That’s evidently no longer the case.

Rookie Graham Pauley is in the DH spot tonight against Aaron Nola. The Friars used Jurickson Profar as the designated hitter in three of the four games that Machado missed while on paternity leave. Profar is back in left field for today’s contest.

Machado will probably still see a fair amount of DH action in the next couple weeks. It stands to reason that manager Mike Shildt and the coaching staff will be wary of putting too much stress on his arm right away. As Machado builds increasingly back to everyday third base work, San Diego could rotate various players through the DH spot.

The Friars have had to live without much offensive production at third base as they’ve relied on utility players to handle the position for a few weeks. San Diego third basemen — primarily Tyler Wade and Eguy Rosario — have combined for a .228/.291/.316 slash line. That ranks 19th in MLB in on-base percentage and 21st in slugging. Rosario and Wade can each play multi-positional roles off the bench, while Matthew Batten was optioned to accommodate Machado’s reinstatement to the active roster.

Ahmed, 34 later this week, spent the past ten seasons in Arizona as a regular fixture at shortstop, earning back-to-back Gold Glove awards for his superlative defense in 2018 and 2019. He’s struggled to stay on the field in recent years, drawing just 264 trips to the plate between the past two seasons, and in that time slashed a paltry .216/.258/.332. Rough as his last two seasons were, Ahmed’s non-roster deal with the Giants came with the opportunity to earn a regular role in San Francisco, and the veteran has made the most of that opportunity by slashing an incredible .556/.667/1.222 in his 12 trips to the plate this spring without recording a strikeout across his four appearances.

Luciano, by contrast, has hit a paltry .071/.188/.071 in six games this spring, striking out in 56.3% of his plate appearances without recording an extra-base hit. While numbers during Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons and it’s worth noting that Luciano was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, it would nonetheless be understandable if the Giants felt that Luciano’s weak results this spring indicated that the 22-year-old needs more development time at the Triple-A level. Luciano made his big league debut with San Francisco last year but struggled at the plate in his cup of coffee, hitting just .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate in 45 trips to the plate.

More from around the NL West…

• Padres star Manny Machado is a “pretty safe” bet to be limited to DH duties during the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, manager Mike Shildt recently told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Machado underwent elbow surgery back in October and is coming off a relative down season by his standards, having slashed “just” .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114, a step down from the 140 wRC+ he posted across the previous three seasons. With Machado likely restricted to DH at-bats to open the season, the Padres appear likely to rely on a utility fielder like Matthew Batten or Eguy Rosario at the hot corner to open the season.
• Sticking with the Padres, Acee also reports that right-hander Glenn Otto, who the club claimed off waivers from the Rangers back in September, came out of the offseason likely to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation this spring but has been sidelined during camp by a teres major strain. Acee notes that he’s “progressing” toward a return to the mound but does not elaborate on what the righty’s timetable for return is. Otto, who will celebrate his 28th birthday tomorrow, was a fixture of the Rangers rotation back in 2022 with a 4.64 ERA in 27 starts but has generally struggled in the majors with a career 5.62 ERA and a walk rate north of 10%.
• While Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen left yesterday’s game after being struck in the torso by a comebacker, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) that the veteran had avoided a major injury from the incident. Treinen was diagnosed with a bruised lung, which Roberts added should be healed within three to five days. That leaves Treinen likely to be available for Opening Day as a veteran option for the L.A. bullpen alongside the likes of Ryan Brasier and Daniel Hudson. Treinen has spent almost all of the past two seasons on the sidelines but owns a career 2.86 ERA and posted a 1.99 figure as recently as the 2021 season.
• Sticking with the Dodgers, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya notes that right-hander Brusdar Graterol will not be joining the Dodgers for the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, as he’s been sidelined much of the spring by hip tightness and shoulder soreness, though Graterol downplayed the latter issue to reporters recently. Graterol added in conversation with reporters (including Ardaya) that he figures to resume throwing on Tuesday and hopes to be ready to join the Dodgers in time for their stateside opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Graterol was one of the club’s most effective relievers last season, pitching to a sensational 1.20 ERA in 68 appearances.

Bogaerts played 53 games as a third baseman with the Red Sox during his first two Major League seasons, and has played a handful of games as a designated hitter.  Otherwise, Bogaerts has exclusively lined up at the shortstop position, amassing 11675 2/3 innings at the position while posting +0.8 UZR/150, -31 Outs Above Average, and -54 Defensive Runs Saved.  These metrics have been more positive in the last two seasons, however, with Bogaerts delivering +2.3 UZR/150, +8 Outs Above Average, and +1 DRS.

Questions about a possible position switch have followed Bogaerts for years, dating back to his days in Boston.  These same criticisms followed Bogaerts into the free agent market last winter, though they didn’t prevent him from landing a mega-deal in the form his 11-year, $280MM pact with San Diego.  Agent Scott Boras was insistent on marketing Bogaerts as a shortstop during his free agent push, though Bogaerts himself said “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” last fall when asked about changing positions.

Bogaerts hinted that he’d prefer playing second base in the event of a change, which could make for a pretty smooth swap of Bogaerts at the keystone and Ha-Seong Kim moving over to shortstop.  Kim was the NL’s Gold Glove winner for utility players in 2023, as he played mostly at second base but also showed some good glovework as a part-time shortstop and third baseman.  Kim and Bogaerts trading place would certainly look like an on-paper defensive upgrade for the Padres’ infield, and while Kim is a free agent next winter, shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill is on pace to be part of the MLB roster perhaps even before 2024 is out, let alone for the 2025 campaign.  Merrill (a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport) could be the long-term answer at the position, so Bogaerts’ move to primarily second base work might be coming sooner rather than later.

Manny Machado’s near-term future is also a factor here, as Machado underwent elbow surgery in October and it isn’t yet clear when he might be ready to resume his usual spot at third base.  Shildt gave a positive update on Machado’s status, saying the All-Star infielder “is killing his offseason” preparations and that Machado is “on pace to be able to be ready offensively” so DH duty seems like a strong possibility for the start of the season.  Playing the hot corner is still somewhat up in the air, though Shildt said “he has an opportunity to start the season at third base.  He’s on target to be able to get some opportunities to play in Spring Training at third base, but I’m not gonna put any timeframe on it.”

It doesn’t sound as if Machado will miss too much time in the field, though since the Padres start their regular season with a two-game series with the Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21, getting Machado at third base by this earlier edition of Opening Day sounds like a stretch.  Playing third by early to mid-April seems more feasible based on Shildt’s comments, though as the manager noted, it is still soon to tell.

If Machado isn’t a DH-only player for too long, utilitymen Matthew Batten and Eguy Rosario can cover third base in the interim.  Kim might become an option if Machado needs more time to be fully ready, plus Tyler Wade and Mason McCoy are in spring camp on minor league deals as further infield depth.

It was a relative down season for Machado, 30, who slashed .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114 in 601 trips to the plate this season. After a standout 2022 that saw him accumulate a whopping 7.5 fWAR and finish second to Paul Goldschmidt in NL MVP voting, Machado was widely expected to opt-out of his contract this offseason and test the open market. Rather than risk that eventuality, the Padres opted to extend him through the 2033 campaign, adding an additional five years and $170MM to the six years and $180MM already guaranteed to him in his original deal.

Now, Machado will run the risk of entering the first season of his new megadeal in San Diego on the injured list. The club is already expected to cut payroll by around $50MM on the heels of a disappointing 82-80 season, and with uncertainty regarding their franchise third baseman, the club will have to do more with less in replacing Machado’s production for the first part of the season, in addition to returning or replacing pending free agent stars Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Fortunately, that might be easier to do than one might expect. Though the club relied on depth options like Matthew Batten and Eguy Rosario down the stretch this season in Machado’s absence, the Padres figure to boast a deep group of infield options in 2024 even assuming the club prefers to keep Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield rather than move him back onto the dirt. With Xander Bogaerts entrenched at shortstop and utility infielder Ha-Seong Kim more than capable of sliding over to cover third base while Machado is unavailable, Jake Cronenworth could temporarily return to his natural position of second base after spending most of the 2023 campaign at first. That would open first base up for an external acquisition, a hypothetical return for deadline acquisition Garrett Cooper, or even veteran slugger Matt Carpenter, who struggled in 76 games this year but holds a $5.5MM player option for the 2024 campaign.

Rookies Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten have been handling third base while Machado has been limited to DH duty for the last three weeks, and it seems possible the Padres will look for some infield help (whether a short-term veteran third baseman or a more versatile utility type) this winter as a fill-in while Machado recovers.  The good news is that Machado has been adjusting well to a designated hitter role, hitting .302/.343/.571 with five home runs over 67 September plate appearances.  This includes four hits and two homers in yesterday’s 4-2 win over the Cardinals, which extended San Diego’s winning streak to eight games.  With the Padres still in the wild card picture, Machado has said he’ll try to keep playing through the pain unless the club is mathematically eliminated from the playoff race.

More from the NL West….

• Speaking of playing through pain, Dodgers catcher Will Smith told 570 AM radio’s David Vassegh last weekend that he suffered “a broken rib and some oblique strain stuff” after being hit by a Jake Woodford pitch on April 30.  Smith didn’t miss any time and was still as productive as ever for the next few months, but he has struggled since the All-Star break, possibly due to lingering swing effects even though the healing process is now more complete.  “There was probably a little bit of guarding [the injury] initially after. And then when you’re talking about the rib, the oblique, that sort of dovetails into some changed mechanics,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris and other reporters.  Smith has been doing extra work with the team’s hitting coaches to try and fix the problem before the postseason begins, since beyond just the lack of production, he probably won’t have the benefit of DH days in the playoffs as the Dodgers will try to field their first-choice lineup in every game.
• The Giants’ heavy use of openers/bulk pitchers and platoons around the diamond is meant to maximize production, with the club’s 107-win season in 2021 serving as an example of how smoothly these tactics work.  However, San Francisco had a .500 record last season and is an even 77-77 this year, which also shows the drawbacks of the strategy.  As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the Giants’ usage of many of their players “seems almost designed to demonstrate a lack of faith in them,” which has caught the notice of scouts and other personnel from around baseball.  “Psychologically, you’re telling players they’re not good enough.  So why would free agents want to go there?,” one source rhetorically asked.  Slusser figures some changes will be made to the coaching staff this winter, though manager Gabe Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are likely to be retained, as team chairman Greg Johnson said just last week.  Kapler’s hands-off managerial style is discussed by a few Giants players (named and unnamed) within Slusser’s piece, and one unnamed veteran player felt the front office should’ve shown more trust in the club by being more active at the trade deadline.

SEPTEMBER 9: The Padres remain on the outer fringes of the NL wild card race, as San Diego is seven games behind the Diamondbacks for the final wild card berth, and the Marlins, Reds, and Giants are all sandwiched between Arizona and San Diego in the standings.  Barring a miraculous September surge, it looks like it’s just a matter of time before the Padres are eliminated from the playoff race, which could also bring an early end to Manny Machado’s season.

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, it is possible Machado might be shut down due to recurring elbow problems, specifically the type of inflammation best known as “tennis elbow.”  This is the second straight season that Machado has dealt with the injury, and he could opt for an offseason surgery that shouldn’t impact his readiness for the start of Spring Training.

While tennis elbow doesn’t usually require surgery, it might be necessary to finally solve an injury that has been bothering the third baseman for the better part of two years.  “The effects recently are more frequent and severe,” Acee writes, noting that Machado has been limited to DH-only duty over his last seven games.  Even in a hitting-only role, Acee hears that “there are certain swings that cause [Machado] a great deal of pain.”

The injury hasn’t resulted in any time on the injured list for Machado, though he did miss a couple of weeks earlier in the season due to a minor hand fracture.  However, the lingering elbow problem could explain Machado’s relatively disappointing season, as he has hit .253/.317/.453 with 26 homers over 545 plate appearances.  While still a 112 wRC+, it’s well below Machado’s standards, particularly in comparison to the 153 wRC+ he posted in 2022 while finishing second in NL MVP voting.

Machado’s performance has been one of many factors in a very disappointing season for the Padres, who are 67-75 despite one of the game’s highest payrolls and a +73 run differential.  With a playoff berth looking like a longshot at best, there wouldn’t be much of a cost for the Padres in shutting down Machado and getting his rehab (whether involving a surgery or not) underway as quickly as possible to get a jump start on 2024.

Rivas signed a minor league deal with the Padres over the winter. The Chula Vista native had previously appeared in the big leagues with the Cubs. He impressed in an 18-game rookie showing in 2021 but struggled over a longer stretch of play last year. The lefty-swinging Rivas has a .247/.331/.322 line with four home runs and a lofty 30.7% strikeout rate against MLB pitching.

Chicago released Rivas in January. He secures another MLB look with his hometown club following a huge showing in Triple-A. Rivas is hitting .319/.440/.571 over 200 trips to the dish in El Paso. He’s taken a walk in a massive 17% of his plate appearances with a lower than average 18.5% strikeout percentage. Minor league success is nothing new for the University of Arizona product. Rivas is a career .294/.398/.434 hitter below the MLB level.

With Cruz landing on the IL, the Padres had room to add another bat. Rivas joins Matt Carpenter and Brandon Dixon as bat-first options off the bench. Cruz, signed to a $1MM deal over the winter, hasn’t made the impact the team had expected. The veteran slugger owns only a .238/.270/.381 mark over 111 trips to the plate.

Middling production towards the bottom of the lineup has been an issue for San Diego. The Friars rank 23rd in run scoring, leading to a 26-30 record that has them in fourth place in the National League West. Machado has an uncharacteristic .231/.282/.372 line himself, and his tough season continued when he suffered a tiny fracture in his hand on a hit by pitch a couple weeks ago. That cost him around two weeks of action.

Campusano has been out since mid-April with a left thumb injury. He underwent surgery last month and isn’t expected back until the All-Star Break. His IL transfer backdates to the April placement and there was no way he’d return in the next couple weeks. That makes this no more than a procedural transaction.

Machado was hit on his left hand by a pitch on Monday and initial X-rays came back negative, but a subsequent CT scan revealed the small fracture. The club took a few days to see how the issue developed but have evidently decided to give Machado a bit of a breather to let him heal up. IL placements can be backdated by three days, meaning Machado could be back in a week if he feels better by then.

The 30-year-old is off to a bit of a slow start this year, hitting just .231/.282/.372 through his first 170 plate appearances on the season. But he has a .263 batting average on balls in play for the year, well below his career mark of .300 and the .297 league average this year. Given his career batting line of .280/.339/.489, it would have been fair to expect some positive regression in the weeks to come but that will now have to wait.

It’s not entirely clear how long Machado will be sidelined. Manager Bob Melvin said this evening that Machado could be back when first eligible for a road series against the Yankees next weekend (via Annie Heilbronn of the Union-Tribune). There’s still some uncertainty regarding that timeline, though, as the primary issue is whether there’ll be too much pain for last year’s NL MVP runner-up to grip the bat.

While Machado has been out, the Friars have kicked Ha-Seong Kim over from second to third base. Rougned Odor stepped in at second base twice earlier in the week. Tonight, the Padres are plugging Dixon into the lineup at first base and moving Jake Cronenworth back to the keystone. Odor and Dixon figure to receive the biggest uptick in playing time for as long as Machado is out.

For the moment, Machado remains day-to-day. Melvin noted there’s a possibility the third baseman will be able to play through the injury. San Diego has an off day tomorrow and figures to reevaluate Machado prior to Friday’s series opener with the Red Sox. Injured list stints can be retroactive up to three days, so the Friars could put backdate an IL placement to May 16 if it’s determined he’ll need a week or more to recover.

That’s obviously the outcome for which San Diego will hope, though it’d be suboptimal for Machado to play through an issue that could theoretically have an adverse effect on his power. Machado has been off to a middling start even before the injury. Through 170 plate appearances, last year’s NL MVP runner-up is hitting .231/.282/.372 with only five home runs.

Machado’s lack of production has contributed to a disappointing start for the club. San Diego lost two of three against Kansas City, dropping them to 20-24. They’re eight games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and only one win up on the last-place Rockies. The Padres entered play Wednesday 27th in the majors in runs scored and in the bottom half of the league in each of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. Even in light of their pitcher-friendly home ballpark, that’s a remarkably surprising placement for a lineup that includes Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and, for the past few weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Over the past couple days, San Diego has kicked Ha-Seong Kim over from second to third base. Rougned Odor has picked up the stray starts at the keystone and could see additional playing time if Machado does hit the IL. The veteran infielder is hitting only .154/.254/.250 over 59 plate appearances after breaking camp out of Spring Training following an offseason minor league deal.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

• Jose Altuve, Astros

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

• Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

• Brandon Crawford, Giants

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

• Salvador Perez, Royals

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

• Chris Sale, Red Sox

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

• Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

• Mike Trout, Angels

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

• Joey Votto, Reds

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

• Patrick Corbin, Nationals

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

• Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

• Bryce Harper, Phillies

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

• Aaron Hicks, Yankees

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

• DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

• Manny Machado, Padres

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

• Ryan Pressly, Astros

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

• Christian Yelich, Brewers

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

• Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

• Ozzie Albies, Braves

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

• Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

• Javier Báez, Tigers

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

• José Berríos, Blue Jays

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

• Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

• Xander Bogaerts, Padres

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

• Kris Bryant, Rockies

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

• Byron Buxton, Twins

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

• Luis Castillo, Mariners

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

• Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

• Willson Contreras, Cardinals

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

• Carlos Correa, Twins

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

• Jake Cronenworth, Padres

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

• Yu Darvish, Padres

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

• Jacob deGrom, Rangers

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

• Rafael Devers, Red Sox

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

• Edwin Díaz, Mets

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

• Wilmer Flores, Giants

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

• Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

• Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

• Wander Franco, Rays

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

• Andrés Giménez, Guardians

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

• Michael Harris II, Braves

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

• Kyle Hendricks, Cubs

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

• Aaron Judge, Yankees

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

• Francisco Lindor, Mets

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Lance McCullers Jr., Astros

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

• Ryan McMahon, Rockies

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

• Sean Murphy, Braves

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

• Joe Musgrove, Padres

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

• Brandon Nimmo, Mets

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

• Matt Olson, Braves

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

• Marcell Ozuna, Braves

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

• José Ramírez, Guardians

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

• J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

• Anthony Rendon, Angels

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

• Austin Riley, Braves

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

• Carlos Rodón, Yankees

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

• Julio Rodríguez, Mariners

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

• Keibert Ruiz, Nationals

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

• Corey Seager, Rangers

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

• Marcus Semien, Rangers

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

• Antonio Senzatela, Rockies

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

• George Springer, Blue Jays

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

• Trevor Story, Red Sox

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

• Dansby Swanson, Cubs

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

• Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

• Chris Taylor, Dodgers

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

• Trea Turner, Phillies

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

One of the four spots on the Padres Opening Day bench is certain to be reserved for backup catcher Luis Campusano. As for the last three spots, Odor seems likely to compete with outfielders David Dahl and Jose Azocar, and utility player Brandon Dixon. Odor provides the least versatility of those options, as all but 259 of his career innings in the field have come at second base. By contrast, Dahl and Azocar both have experience at all three outfield spots, while Dixon has played all four corners and second base during his career. Still, Cassavell notes that Odor’s status as a lefty bat could give him, (and, presumably, Dahl) a leg up on earning a spot on the bench entering the season.

Assuming no additional injuries complicate matters, Matt Carpenter will shift to the bench once Tatis is eligible to return after the first 20 games of the season, while Engel will join the bench as soon as he is healthy. At that point, there will only be one spot still available on the bench in San Diego for the aforementioned quartet. Azocar, Dahl, and Dixon all have options remaining, though Odor does not.

More from San Diego…

• Joe Musgrove, who is currently out of action with a fractured toe, is expected to miss at the least the first two starts of the regular season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee notes that it’s possible that without Musgrove’s contributions, the Padres may opt to go with a five man rotation to open the season, preferring to add depth to a bullpen that could be taxed more than usual without the durable right-hander pitching deep into games. Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Cole Hamels are among the pitchers who could take Musgrove’s spot on the roster, though whether that spot will earn them a role in the bullpen or the rotation is currently unclear.
• Even after signing Manny Machado to his second $300MM+ contract, the Padres appear to have no interest in slowing down, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Given Padres owner Peter Seidler’s already unprecedented investment in the big league club for an organization of their market size, it’s difficult to predict where the limits on spending could be. Lin notes that the backloaded nature of Machado’s new 11-year, $350MM deal with San Diego could help the club pursue an extension with fellow superstar, Juan Soto. It could also assist in a planned pursuit of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should he hit free agency following the 2023 season as expected, even in spite of the fact that a deal with either player could cost even more than it did to extend Machado. Discussing his recent extension, Machado explains that a candid conversation with Seidler led to the contract eventually being hammered out. Seidler, for his part, says the Padres are “willing and excited about continuing to sign great players.”

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the contract and the distributed/deferred nature of the signing bonus will provide San Diego with some additional payroll flexibility, though the year-to-year structure of the deal doesn’t impact the luxury tax hit, which is still purely based on the contract’s average annual value. That said, the lower salaries up front will dovetail both with Juan Soto’s remaining club control (through 2024) and with the eventual decrease in salary on Yu Darvish’s more frontloaded extension.

Feb. 26: Manny Machado isn’t going anywhere. The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Machado, 30, initially signed a 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres going into 2019, with that deal affording him the ability to opt-out after five years. That opt-out was looming at the end of the upcoming season and multiple factors made it seem like an easy decision for Machado. For one thing, he has continued to produce at an elite level, including a 2022 season that was perhaps his best yet. He hit 32 home runs and stole nine bases last year, finishing the season with a .298/.366/.531 batting line. His 152 wRC+ indicates he was 52% better than the league average hitter. He was also graded as eight Outs Above Average at third base, with his overall contributions leading to a tally of 7.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs.

In addition to that, the market for elite players has been quite strong this winter, with many players going deep into nine-figure territory. Aaron Judge got a $360MM guarantee, Trea Turner got $300MM, Xander Bogaerts $280MM, Dansby Swanson $177MM, Carlos Rodón $162MM, Jacob deGrom $185MM and Brandon Nimmo $162MM. Since Machado was going to have five years and $150MM remaining on his deal at the end of this year, taking the opt-out was the clear choice from a financial perspective and Machado was quite open about his plans to take that path.

It was reported earlier this month that the Padres were planning to get an extension done with Machado to prevent him from opting out, though the talks seemed to be in jeopardy as recently as a week ago. It was reported at that time that Machado’s camp had set a February 16 deadline for negotiations, after which point he would prefer to put contract talks aside to focus on baseball. The club apparently offered to add five years and $105MM to his deal, which was not enough to get pen on paper. With the deadline having passed, it seemed possible that the season would begin with the uncertainty lingering, though reports on Friday indicated that the discussions were continuing. It seems as though the Friars bumped up their offer enough to get Machado’s reps back to the table and hammered out a deal.

This will add another hefty salary to the long-term books of a San Diego club that has become surprisingly aggressive in recent years. They had never been among the game’s biggest spenders but have changed that reputation recently. In addition to Machado’s contract, they also gave out big deals to Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and others. The exact breakdown of Machado’s deal isn’t yet known, but these hefty and lengthy deals mean that the club will have something in the vicinity of $100MM on the books for 2028 already.

That increased spending has launched the club into luxury tax territory, having paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two seasons. They are sure to do so again here in 2023, having been hovering around the third tier of $273MM in recent weeks. Recent reporting indicated that the club was narrowly below that line but it’s possible this deal might nudge them over for now. The CBT uses a deal’s average annual value rather than the salary in a given year, meaning we can figure Machado’s tax hit without knowing the full breakdown of the new deal. His previous deal came with a $30MM hit but this new one has an AAV of $31.81MM. Roster Resource now calculates the club’s tax number at $273.3MM. Those calculations are unofficial but given the previous reports about how close the club was to the line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were indeed a hair over now.

A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, but given that the Padres are clearly in win-now mode, they will likely be in pursuit of upgrades at the trade deadline this summer. That means they are more likely to see their CBT number increase rather than decrease throughout the season. If they indeed finish up on the north side of that $273MM line, they will face increased rates of taxation but will also see their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back by ten spots. It seems that owner Peter Seidler is more than willing to pay those penalties as part of making the Padres a competitive club both now and into the future.

For the any clubs that had hopes of making a run at Machado next winter, they will have to come up with other plans for next winter. Machado will no longer be a part of the 2023-2024 free agent class, which will be headlined by Shohei Ohtani and will also feature players like Aaron Nola, Julio Urías and Matt Chapman. For the Padres, they won’t have to worry about filling a vacancy at third base, with Machado now locked in for next season and another decade after that.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the sides were finalizing a new 11-year deal worth $350MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal begins in 2023. Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic first reported that there are no opt-outs and that Machado has full no-trade protection (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Machado implied last week he’d cut talks off when the sides hadn’t agreed to a deal by February 16, a self-imposed deadline representing the outset of Spring Training. At the time, the NL MVP runner-up said he “just wanted to focus on baseball” and “didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things” once exhibition play got underway.

The star third baseman wasn’t as firm when chatting with Lin about the situation today. “Deadlines are deadlines but they know where I stand,” Machado said. “The opportunity will arise if it comes to that. You know, nothing’s out of question. Obviously, they know how much San Diego means to me and what I want to be here. At the end of the day, they knew exactly where I was when that deadline was set. And we’ll see what happens. Our main focus right now is playing baseball. We’ll see.”

Machado is entering the fifth season of the ten-year free agent deal he signed over the 2018-19 offseason. The contract affords him the chance to opt out of the final five years and $150MM at the end of the 2023 campaign. Machado has already confirmed he’s planning to test the market at the end of the year. That declaration came as no surprise, as he’d be in position to handily beat a $150MM guarantee on the open market if he posted a season at similar levels to his last three years.

A new agreement with the Padres could make that a moot point. San Diego owner Peter Seidler told reporters this week re-signing Machado was his “top priority” (relayed by 97.3 FM The Fan). That obviously could take place after the season if/when Machado tests the market, but Lin’s report again raises the possibility of a deal coming together prior to Opening Day.

Financial terms presently under consideration aren’t known. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last week the club had offered an additional $105MM over five seasons on top of his existing deal, which would’ve brought their outstanding commitment to $255MM between 2023-32.

Seidler has signed off a rapid spending hike over the past few seasons. The Friars trail only the Mets and Yankees in projected 2023 payroll. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM free agent pact this offseason and have already worked out a five-year extension with right-hander Yu Darvish this spring. Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish and Joe Musgrove are all counting for more than $15MM annually for the foreseeable future.

That hasn’t deterred Seidler, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, and their staff from continuing to pursue star talent. The Friars took swings at Trea Turner and Aaron Judge before landing Bogaerts and clearly are hopeful of retaining Machado. They’re also down to two years of arbitration control with Juan Soto, who could be in position for one of the largest deals in MLB history when he hits free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Machado owns a .280/.352/.504 line in just under 2200 plate appearances as a Padre. He’s coming off perhaps the best season of his career, one in which he posted a .298/.366/.531 slash with 32 home runs to earn his sixth All-Star nod. Machado typically pairs that middle-of-the-order offense with excellent defensive marks at third base. He’s headed into his age-30 season, so any new deal (either an extension or free agent contract) would figure to come into play for his age-31 campaign and beyond.

With Machado’s February 16 deadline having passed, it seems his impending return to the free agent market will be a storyline throughout this highly anticipated Padres season.

10:19am: Padres and third baseman Manny Machado had some extension talks recently, to try to prevent him from opting out of his contract at the end of this season. Reports yesterday indicated the club was willing to tack an extra five years and $105MM to his current deal, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that was $145MM short of his asking price.

Machado originally signed a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres that affords him the opportunity to opt out midway through, after the fifth season. He will have five years and $150MM remaining when that opportunity rolls around this fall. Given that he’s played at MVP-caliber levels, especially last year, he could certainly find a guarantee larger than that on the open market. It’s long seemed like he would lean towards triggering that opt-out and recently admitted that he does indeed plan to do so. With the extra five years and $105MM, the club was effectively offering him a ten-year, $255MM deal starting with 2024. Nightengale reports that Machado’s camp was seeking $400MM over that same ten-year stretch, or an extra $250MM on top of his current deal.

Given that massive gap between the two sides, it’s not surprising that a deal didn’t come together. Aaron Judge was coming off one of the best seasons in recent history and earned himself a $360MM contract this offseason, one of the largest deals ever. That Machado and his reps are setting their sights above that range is quite ambitious, but also understandable. The player has the security of knowing that he has that $150MM secured, even if he should suffer some kind of worst-case scenario such as a career-altering injury this year. That gives him the leverage to set a really high asking price since driving a hard bargain right now doesn’t create any risk of coming up empty-handed.

For the Padres, it’s not surprising that they balked at such an ask. They’ve been quite aggressive in recent years, including their previous deal with Machado, their $340MM extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., $280MM deal with Xander Bogaerts and others. However, the kind of deal that Machado was seeking would have been on another level.

In addition to the straightforward cash dealings to consider, they also have the luxury tax to think about. It was recently reported that the club’s competitive balance tax calculation places them narrowly below the third tier of $273MM, with recent deals for players like Michael Wacha and Yu Darvish intentionally structured in ways that lower their respective tax hits. Going over that line would lead to increased taxation as well as their top pick in the 2024 draft being dropped by ten slots.

The CBT is calculated by the average annual value of a deal, not a player’s salary in a given season. Machado’s current deal comes with a $30MM hit but the extension he sought would effectively turn the contract into a $550 deal over 15 years for tax purposes, combining the $400MM he sought for the future and the $150MM that he will have earned at the end of 2023. That would increase his tax hit to $36.67MM, adding to the club’s tax hit and surely bumping them over that threshold.

Since Machado’s camp reportedly set a deadline of February 16 for contract talks, it seems that a deal won’t be coming together at this time. It’s always possible that the Padres come back with an offer strong enough to make him reconsider that position, but given their tax situation, it seems that things are aligned for Machado to play out the season and hit the open market again. He would be one of the top free agents in the class alongside players like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Nola. The Padres could always re-sign him at that point, but they will surely have competition from other clubs around the league.

Machado’s tenure with the club has been largely successful. After not qualifying for the postseason since 2006, they’ve been there twice in the past three years. Machado launched 32 home runs last year and hit .298/.366/.531 for a wRC+ of 152. He produced 7.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and came in second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt. They have been aggressive this winter in adding free agents and seem poised for another strong season in 2023, but whether they can keep their star third baseman around beyond that remains to be seen.