This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Mets signing Juan Soto (2:35)
• The Yankees to sign Max Fried (26:05)
• The Red Sox acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox (36:10)
• The Giants signing Willy Adames (46:40)
• The Athletics signing Luis Severino (51:55)
• The Blue Jays acquiring Andrés Giménez from the Guardians who flip Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates for Luis Ortiz (1:01:25)
• The Orioles signing Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sánchez (1:14:00)
• The Tigers signing Alex Cobb (1:21:35)
• The Rangers re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and acquiring Jake Burger from the Marlins (1:25:20)

Check out our past episodes!

• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here
• Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
• The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

DECEMBER 6: The A’s are ready to spend some cash, announcing Friday that they’ve signed free agent righty Luis Severino to a three-year deal — the third year of which is a player option. Severino, a client of Klutch Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $67MM, to be paid out in the form of a $10MM signing bonus and $57MM in salary over the three seasons. He can opt out of the contract after year two and become a free agent once again in the 2026-27 offseason.

It’ll register as a shock for many to see the nomadic A’s, who will play next year in West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park (home to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate), land a notable free agent with a hefty multi-year deal. They’re in the process of relocating to Las Vegas and have been aggressively pursuing free agents in an effort to boost a payroll that entered the offseason without a single contract on the books in 2025. Some free agents — Walker Buehler among them — have entirely dismissed the notion of playing in a minor league facility. Still, with a reported target payroll in the $100MM range, there’s long been a possibility for the A’s to be a surprise player in free agency. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored just such a possibility at length last month.

The general thinking has been that the A’s will need to overpay in order to pursue top-end free agents this winter. The terms of Severino’s contract indeed suggest a clear willingness to spend well beyond market expectations in order to lure free agents to their new home. Severino’s deal includes both a larger guarantee than most anticipated and an opt-out opportunity. Because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, Severino will cost the A’s their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. He’ll also net the Mets a compensatory pick, albeit only between the fourth and fifth rounds because of their status as a luxury tax payor.

The $100MM target payroll likely stems from the Athletics’ status as a revenue-sharing recipient. The franchise was stripped of its revenue-sharing benefits last decade after failing to sufficiently utilize those funds to improve the on-field product, as is a stipulated requirement. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement restored the A’s as a revenue-sharing recipient, and they’ve since spent modestly in free agency to keep payroll at least in step with the other lowest-spending clubs in the league. The deal with Severino signals a willingness to spend a bit beyond that point. It is, incredibly, the largest contract in franchise history, nominally surpassing the six-year, $66MM contract extension signed by third baseman Eric Chavez more than two decades ago.

[Related: The Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team]

Severino, 31, will immediately jump to the top of the A’s rotation. He’s likely ticketed for their Opening Day start, barring another notable acquisition via free agency or trade. He’ll lead a staff that currently projects to also include JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes. The A’s have a variety of in-house candidates for the fifth spot, though the Severino deal rather obviously opens the door for GM David Forst to sign/trade for another starter of note to further solidify the bunch.

Severino, of course, looked the part of a budding ace for the Yankees in 2017-18 when he posted 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% grounder rate in his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The flamethrowing righty averaged better than 97 mph on his heater, recorded a hefty 12.7% swinging-strike rate and generally had the makings of a star. The Yankees agreed, signing him to a four-year, $40MM extension with an option for a fifth season.

That deal bought out all of Severino’s arbitration years and his first free-agent season. At the time, some thought a pitcher with his upside and demonstrated excellence to date was perhaps selling himself short. In the long run, it worked out wonderfully, as injuries frequently kept Severino off the field and rendered him a shell of his former self when healthy enough to take the mound. From 2019-23, Severino managed only 209 1/3 innings in the majors, dealing with multiple lat strains and requiring Tommy John surgery along the way. His 2023 campaign included 89 1/3 frames with a 6.65 ERA.

The 2024 season marked a resurgence for Severino, who inked a one-year, $13MM deal with the Mets on the heels of that injury-plagued finish to his Yankees tenure. The right-hander’s 182 innings nearly matched his total over the five prior calendar years. He logged a 3.91 ERA with a below-average but passable 21.2% strikeout rate and a strong 7.6% walk rate. His 46% ground-ball rate, while not elite, was comfortably north of league average.

At the same time, Severino simply wasn’t the dominant force he was earlier in his career. His average fastball with the Mets was about 1.5 mph off from its peak levels. His 9.4% swinging-strike rate was decidedly below-average — a near mirror-image of his 9.1% mark in that disastrous 2023 season and nowhere close to his career-best 13.3% rate. Opponents made contact on just 81.9% of Severino’s pitches within the strike zone in 2017-18 — league-average was 84.7% — but did so at a whopping 88.2% clip in 2024 (when the league average was 85.2%).

When the Mets signed Severino to his one-year deal, it had the makings of an upside play on a former front-of-the-rotation arm. Last year’s rebound showed that he was healthy but also seemed to further support the notion that his prior ace-caliber form is in the rearview mirror. Severino now has the feel of a third or fourth starter, making his $22.333MM annual salary and an opt-out rather jarring.

Many pundits thought Severino could have — and should have — accepted the Mets’ $21.05MM qualifying offer; he and his agents deserve credit for not simply eclipsing that guarantee in notable fashion but surpassing that number on an annual basis over a lengthy deal that affords him another bite at free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. The contract tops recent guarantees for Chris Bassitt, who was seen as a steady and dependable No. 2-3 arm, and Yusei Kikuchi, whose torrid finish with the Astros made him one of the most sought-after pitchers on this offseason’s market. Both pitchers signed for $63MM over the same three-year term.

For the A’s, a commitment this weighty was likely deemed a necessity to land a mid-rotation arm whose velocity and ground-ball tendencies perhaps create some hope that he can still eke out some incremental improvements over his 2024 form. That said, there’s quite a bit of injury risk still associated with Severino, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.22) were actually more bearish on his 2024 performance than his already solid-but-unspectacular earned run average. There’s little doubt he improves the club and shows that the A’s are serious about spending this winter, but it’s a steep price to pay when taken in totality.

Severino will nevertheless add some credibility to a rotation that was largely lacking it. And the A’s, with a burgeoning core of quality players — Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers — could hope that a few subsequent additions and strides from young talents like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof might help them exceed expectations sooner than most thought possible.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides agreed to a three-year, $67MM deal. Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey reported the signing bonus. Passan added details on the opt-out.

We’ve now seen it — or at least the early stages of it. It might still feel unusual to say the A’s agreed to sign a player for $22MM+ annual value, but that’s the reality. There are also some indications that the on-the-move A’s could continue to spend. For instance, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the A’s also made a “big” offer to free agent southpaw Sean Manaea, who made his MLB debut with the Athletics after coming over from the Royals in the 2015 Ben Zobrist trade.

That offer came prior to their deal with Severino, Heyman notes. It’s not expressly clear that the A’s would be willing to put forth another competitive offer for an upper-tier free agent like Manaea, but the Severino deal and talk of a $100MM payroll target suggests it’s certainly possible. Even with Severino in the fold, RosterResource projects a modest $58MM payroll. There’s room for another weighty salary to be added to the mix, be it in the form of a free agent, a trade acquisition, or both.

One notable aspect of the reported offer to Manaea: the left-hander, like Severino, rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets at the beginning of the offseason. The A’s seem willing to spend at the expense of next year’s draft pool. Severino cost them their third-highest pick — the standard price paid by a revenue-sharing recipient — and now that they’ve forfeited that selection, the cost to sign an additional qualified free agent is reduced. The A’s surrendered their second-round pick to sign Severino — they pick in the first round and in Competitive Balance Round A, between the first and second rounds — and they’d now “only” need to punt their third rounder to bring in Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Christian Walker or another free agent who turned down the qualifying offer.

The A’s could use more stability in the rotation and have at least one corner outfield opening. They have young options at first base (Tyler Soderstrom), second base (Zack Gelof) and shortstop (Jacob Wilson) — all of them picked in the top two rounds of the draft and all of whom are/were highly touted prospects. There’s more of an opening at third base, where Darell Hernaiz and Max Schuemann likely lead the pack, although Gelof could potentially slide over to third base as well if the A’s want to pursue a second baseman. The bullpen, of course, could use some setup arms behind standout closer Mason Miller. There’s no shortage of areas at which to spend, and it seems the A’s are indeed intent on bolstering payroll ahead of the move to their temporary home at Sutter Home Park.

The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.

Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.

The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.

Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.

He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.

If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?

Bregman, 31, is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a 135 wRC+, indicating he’s been 35% better than league average at the plate overall. His strikeout rate hasn’t been higher than 13.6% in any of the past six full seasons, barely half of league average. His walk rate dipped a bit in 2024 but has been above par for most of his career.

He also gets strong grades for his third base defense and is willing to move to second if he signs with a club that has a greater need there. His clubhouse and leadership qualities are often lauded by those who have played with him. MLBTR predicted Bregman for a seven-year deal worth $182MM at the start of the offseason. It’s well established that the Astros want him back, but he’s also been connected to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now Blue Jays.

For the Jays, third base and second base are both fairly unsettled. Ernie Clement was the primary option at the hot corner in 2024 and he had a serviceable season. His .263/.284/.408 batting line was slightly below average, translating to a 94 wRC+. But he also stole 12 bases and got strong grades for his glovework at third and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.

The total package added up to 2.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and Clement is still on the roster, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Bregman coming aboard. If Bregman took over as the everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement into a utility role, which could still allow him to contribute fairly regularly.

At second base, Spencer Horwitz and Davis Schneider got decent chunks of the playing time, alongside the now-departed Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has hit well in his major league career so far but is not a natural second baseman, only moving there since his first base spot is taken by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A lot of the designated hitter plate appearances went to Justin Turner in 2024, who is no longer with the team. Perhaps that frees up Horwitz and Guerrero to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a down season and can also play left field.

The Jays have some other players on the roster capable of playing either third or second base, including Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez, but no one in that group has even 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to quickly bounce back from a poor 2024 campaign, there’s logic in going for an established major leaguer like Bregman as opposed to hoping that someone in that group takes a step forward. The Jays have also been tied to shortstop Willy Adames, who is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new club if they already have a shortstop. The Jays have Bo Bichette at short but he’s only one year from free agency, so that’s a move that could potentially help in the short and long term.

The interest in Severino aligns with the club’s other rotation pursuits. As mentioned, they’ve been tied to Fried as well as Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, though Snell is now off the board due to his agreement with the Dodgers. Severino once seemed like a budding ace with the Yankees but he didn’t pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He was able to pitch partial seasons in 2022 and 2023 but with inconsistent results.

He’s coming off a solid bounceback year with the Mets. He made 32 starts and tossed 182 innings, his first time throwing more than 102 innings since 2018. On top of the quantity, there was also some quality, as Severino allowed 3.91 earned runs per innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.

Severino isn’t as exciting as Burnes or Fried but he also won’t cost as much. MLBTR predicted Burnes for a $200MM guarantee and Fried a bit behind at $156MM. Severino, on the other hand, was projected for a three-year deal worth $51MM.

The Jays have a veteran rotation nucleus consisting of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Another spot is likely ticketed to Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Options for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss but there’s sense in the Jays adding. Rodríguez has plenty of relief experience and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he could be pushed there, at least until an injury opens up a need in the rotation. Bloss has less than 12 big league innings and only 112 in the minors, so he could get some more seasoning in Triple-A until a big league opportunity arises.

On the financial side of things, RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of $189MM next year. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club will end up with a roughly similar payroll as they did in 2024. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day figure at $225MM last year, so that could leave them with about $35MM of wiggle room.

Adding one of these notable free agents could certainly fit into that window, though Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly eclipse that number but it’s been reported by Nicholson-Smith that the Jays would make an exception for Soto, willing to stretch the budget further than they would otherwise.

Each of Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames rejected a qualifying offer, so the associated penalties will also have to be a consideration. The Jays seemingly ducked under the competitive balance tax in 2024 with their midseason selloff, though it’s not yet official. If that proves to be the case, the Jays would have to surrender their second-best pick in the upcoming draft as well as $500K of international bonus pool space for signing one of these players.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

The players who rejected the offer:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

November 16: Right-hander Luis Severino is “likely” to decline the Qualifying Offer extended to him by the Mets earlier this month, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that Severino “loves” playing in New York but is now expected to attempt to land a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.

Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second time this year. The right-hander entered the open market last winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees where he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of work and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went quite well, as he pitched to a league average 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of work. He struck out 21.2% of opponents while walking batters at just a 7.9% clip. Those are all solid but unspectacular numbers, but that mid-to-back of the rotation production can still earn a strong guarantee in free agency, as the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent years (albeit without the QO attached).

Given that, it’s perhaps not much of a surprise that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets attached a QO to him. That guarantee is in line with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals just before free agency opened, and Wacha was viewed as a similarly borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. Of course, Severino wouldn’t necessarily have to reach that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile decision for him. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers prior to the 2023 season that afforded him a vesting player option for 2025, and even a similar deal would net Severino a larger overall guarantee than the QO while still affording him the flexibility to return to free agency in short order.

With Severino poised to decline the QO, the Mets will now need to either re-sign him in free agency or replace him in their rotation. The club’s rotation also stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who received a QO as well but has long been expected to decline it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s certainly possible that the club could look to reunite with either Severino or one of the other exiting free agent starters, although the Mets have plenty of financial flexibility and are coming off a surprise trip to the NLCS. That could lead them to aim higher in free agency this winter, with top free agent starters such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all expected to be available. It’s even possible that they turn to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.

Should Severino ultimately land elsewhere in free agency, him declining the QO means that the Mets would receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of the 2025 draft as a club that paid the luxury tax in 2024. Meanwhile, interested teams would have to surrender a combination of draft picks and international bonus pool dollars commensurate with their status relative to the luxury tax and revenue sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2024 would surrender just their third-round pick in the 2025 draft to sign Severino, while teams that paid the Competitive Balance Tax this year would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool space.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Manaea is coming off one of the better platform years of anyone in the rotation class. He turned in a 3.47 earned run average while striking out a quarter of opponents through a career-high 181 2/3 innings. The southpaw had an excellent second half that coincided with a dip in his arm angle and an increased use of his sinker. He’ll probably be limited to three-year offers as he enters his age-33 season, though those could come at a comparable annual value to the QO price. He shouldn’t give much consideration to accepting.

Severino could have a more interesting decision. The hard-throwing righty worked to a 3.91 ERA across 182 frames spanning 31 starts. It was a nice rebound from his terrible final season with the Yankees. Severino improved his ground-ball rate to 46% but didn’t find the kind of bat-missing ability that made him a high-end starter during his early days in the Bronx. He fanned 21.2% of batters faced while getting swinging strikes at a well below-average 9.4% clip.

The lack of whiffs could lead to trepidation from some teams. Severino has plus velocity and good control, though, and he proved capable of shouldering a full workload for the first time since 2018. With Manaea virtually certain to decline the QO, the Mets were willing to risk bringing Severino back on a decent one-year salary. They’re likely to find themselves in the top tier of luxury tax penalization next season. That’d entail paying a 110% tax, potentially putting them on the hook for more than $44MM.

If Severino declines the offer in search of a three- or four-year deal, the Mets would be in line for modest draft compensation. As luxury tax payors, New York receives the lowest form of compensation for losing qualified free agents. They’d get compensatory picks after the fourth round if Manaea and/or Severino sign elsewhere. The prospect value of those picks is minimal, but it’d tack on a few hundred thousand dollars to next year’s amateur signing bonus pool.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Stearns discussed a number of topics but a major theme was the club’s high number of departing free agents. Each of Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker are Jose Iglesias headed to the open market, along with a number of relievers. Sean Manaea is also going to be added to that list eventually, once he officially declines his $13.5MM player option.

That leaves a lot of holes on the roster but also means a lot of money is coming off the books. The Mets also ate money in facilitating trades in previous years, sending out players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann. Those contracts are also expiring now, freeing up even more cash. RosterResource projects the Mets for about $161MM for next year’s roster, well below this year’s $336MM. A few non-tenders and Manaea opting out will widen that gap even farther.

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” Stearns said when asked about that subject. “It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”

Since Steve Cohen has purchased the club, the Mets have been one of the top clubs in terms of spending, often at the very top of payroll lists. Stearns was only hired a year ago and an unknown factor in the Mets’ future is how he will operate with that spending capacity, after spending most of his career with a lower-spending club in Milwaukee.

His first offseason running the Mets saw the club spread the money around to various players but without any long-term commitments. He signed nine players to one-year deals with Manaea the only player to get even a second season, and even that came with an opt-out after one year. That offseason came after a disappointing 2023 campaign that turned the Mets into sellers, which included the aforementioned Scherzer and Verlander deals, but still with lots of money tied up. What remains to be seen is if Stearns will now act differently on the heels of a more successful season and with much more powder dry.

“We also have to recognize,” Stearns continued, “that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you’re right. We have a lot of money coming off the books. I would expect us to spend some of that, a good portion of that, to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We’re also not going to do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core.”

Those comments could be interpreted in many ways. Even the highest payroll clubs want to spend their money as wisely as possible, which is naturally part of what he’s referencing here. While that could perhaps be a suggestion that the club will have some restraint with their new spending capacity, he also wouldn’t be doing himself any favors by coming out and baldly declaring that he was planning on spending his winter throwing money out the back of a train. Simply for leverage in contract talks, it makes sense for him to play his cards close to the vest when discussing plans like this.

Time will tell whether this offseason will see the Mets signing a bunch of superstars or making more measured additions, but Stearns didn’t shy away from the rotation question. As mentioned, the club is set to lose a bunch of players, including three starting pitchers in Manaea, Severino and Quintana. Each of those guys topped 170 innings in 2024, so the combined subtraction of that trio will be significant. Christian Scott also underwent UCL surgery in September and will likely miss all of 2025.

Next year’s rotation currently projects to include Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Senga missed most of 2024 due to various injuries while Peterson and Megill are a tier below fully established starters, as the Mets have moved each to the minors or the bullpen on occasion. Stearns was asked about Peterson, Megill and José Buttó but wouldn’t commit on whether any of those guys would be more likely to be in the rotation or bullpen in 2025. The club can retain Paul Blackburn via arbitration but he has battled multiple injuries in his career and recently underwent a spinal procedure that’s going to take months to recover from, which could lead to a non-tender.

“We faced a similar task last offseason. We’re going to have to replace innings,” Stearns said when asked about the rotation. “Certainly, part of that could potentially be from some of those guys returning or we may look elsewhere. But we’re going to have to add starting pitching. We’re going to have to add multiple starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we’ll be able to do it.”

Last winter, the rotation was without Verlander and Scherzer after those trades while Carlos Carrasco had also become a free agent. As mentioned, Stearns gave a one-year deal to Severino while Manaea got two years with an opt-out, and the club also acquired Adrian Houser from Milwaukee.

The Severino and Manaea deals both worked out well, which is why Manaea is now slated to opt-out and is also likely to receive a qualifying offer. Severino could get one as well but is perhaps more of a borderline case, as explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday.

The Mets could look to bring those guys back, as Stearns said, but the market will have other options. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty will be the top free agents this winter and could command nine-figure deals. Stearns never spent on pitching in that way with the Brewers but was also working with far less spending capacity. He continued to invest somewhat modestly last winter but perhaps could pivot now that the Mets are in a different position than they were a year ago.

If he and the Mets prefer to stick to a lower level of free agency, Manaea, Severino and Quintana will be there alongside guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and others. Despite all the available payroll space, Stearns said he still planned to explore the trade market, which would be another path to upgrading the rotation. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell and just some of the names that could speculatively available in that space.

Along somewhat similar lines, there is the Pete Alonso question. Stearns never spent big money on first basemen during his time in Milwaukee, with the three-year, $15MM deal for Eric Thames being his largest investment in that position. Alonso will certainly command more than that and reportedly already turned down an extension offer of $158MM from the Mets in June of 2023, before Stearns was hired.

The merits of spending that kind of money on a first baseman whose contributions are mostly in the power department can be debated, but Alonso is also a franchise icon at this point, thanks to his homegrown status as well as his crowd-pleasing performances in home run derbies and playoff games. Stearns said the club would love to have the Polar Bear back but that Alonso deserves to explore the free agent market.

“All of that is important,” Stearns said, when asked about weighing Alonso as a player but also as a staple of the franchise. “Who Pete is as a person is important. What he means to this franchise is important. Who he is as a player is also important and what he contributes on the field. There’s no magic formula to this. There’s no equation that spits out what all of that is for us. And so, there’s judgment involved. There’s evaluating the market involved. And we’ll see how this process goes throughout the offseason.”

Stearns was also asked about hiring a general manager, which he didn’t seem in a rush to do. Billy Eppler was going to work in that role under Stearns until he stepped down a year ago after it was revealed he was under investigation for the club misusing the injured list. Stearns said he is happy with the current front office makeup and doesn’t plan to do any kind of GM search, though he would consider making a hire if someone intriguing became available.

There’s still plenty to be determined in exactly how the Mets will operate this winter, but given the number of openings on the roster and the club’s spending capacity, it doesn’t seem like anything is off the table at this point.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that as things stand right now, the Mets are approaching the July 30 deadline with an eye toward adding to the team. President of baseball operations David Stearns tells Heyman that the bullpen, specifically, is an “area of the team we’re going to continue to monitor.”

Mets relievers rank 14th in the majors with a 3.77 earned run average. Both their 3.73 FIP and 3.47 SIERA rank more favorably among MLB clubs, and the Mets’ bullpen leads all of baseball with a 26.8% strikeout rate on the season. They’re not without their flaws, however. The bullpen in Queens has a 10.5% walk rate that ranks as the fifth-worst in MLB. The Mets also just lost righty Drew Smith to probable Tommy John surgery, and they’ve had an uneven season from closer Edwin Diaz. The Mets’ $102MM closer posted a 5.40 ERA in 20 innings before landing on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement, returned to rattle off three straight scoreless innings (three strikeouts, no walks) — but then was hit with a 10-game ban following a failed foreign substance check in his most recent appearance.

For much of the season, the focus on the Mets has been about who they might have to peddle to contending clubs at the deadline. Pete Alonso’s name, in particular, has been a hotly debated topic, though Heyman writes that as of this time, the slugger “isn’t going anywhere.” So long as the Mets remain in arm’s reach of a postseason bid — particularly with considerable momentum on their side after their play in the past three weeks — it seems they’ll avoid straight sell-side transactions.

That said, both Heyman and SNY’s John Harper suggest there’s room for the Mets to walk both paths. New York’s pitching depth is improving with Kodai Senga on the mend. The Mets have several starters on short-term deals — Luis Severino and Jose Quintana most notably. The Post’s Mike Puma reported yesterday that the Mets could look to move some veteran starters, knowing that Senga is progressing toward a return while top prospect Christian Scott and young righty Jose Butto continue to impress in the upper minors.

Among their short-term veterans, Severino would presumably have the most value but is also the least likely to change hands. The longtime Yankee hurler has posted a 3.42 ERA in a team-high 97 1/3 innings with strong walk (8%) and ground-ball (50%) rates. Severino has a career-low marks in strikeout rate (18.5%) and swinging-strike rate (8.3%), but his revamped, sinker-heavy approach has nonetheless yielded impressive results. Moving him would register as a surprise, given that he’s presumably viewed as a leading candidate to make playoff starts, alongside a hopefully healthy Senga.

Lefty Sean Manaea, too, can become a free agent at season’s end. There are different sorts of hurdles when it comes to trading him. The veteran southpaw has turned in a 3.89 ERA in 76 1/3 innings with a strong 23.6% strikeout rate but also a career-worst 10.6% walk rate. More concerning for interested teams than his walk rate, though, would be the lefty’s contract. He inked a two-year, $28MM contract over the winter, but the second season of that deal is a $13.5MM player option.

Broadly speaking, teams are reluctant to trade for players who have player options and/or opt-out clauses on their contracts. Those clauses are pure downside for the acquiring team. If the player performs well or exceeds expectations post-trade, he’s all but assured taking the out clause and becoming a free agent. If said player incurs an injury or performs poorly, the acquiring team could be stuck with an additional year(s) of the player on a contract that outpaces his market value. Effectively, if the player performs well post-trade, he becomes a rental. If he plays poorly or gets hurt, it becomes an underwater multi-year contract.

Of the team’s veteran starters, Quintana might be the most straightforward option to change hands. The 35-year-old has had some struggles this season, posting a 4.57 ERA and proving uncharacteristically susceptible to home runs (1.42 HR/9). Quintana has a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate but a sharp 8.1% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 44.5% clip.

Quintana has also pitched much better of late. An eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Rays back on May 3 represents nearly 20% of the lefty’s total earned runs this season. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 starts this season and owns a tidy 3.70 ERA over his past eight trips to the hill. Quintana is earning $13MM this season, with about $6.36MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. For the Mets, there’s some extra incentive to shed some of that salary; they’re paying a 110% tax on it because of their current luxury tax status. Though Quintana himself is only owed that remaining $6.36MM, trading him would save the Mets just shy of $13.5MM when factor in luxury tax considerations.

It bears emphasizing that there’s no indication the Mets view shedding a veteran starter as a necessity or even a likelihood. Being open-minded to that sort of move is nothing new for Stearns, who made several trades of big league players during his time atop the Brewers’ front office — even when the Brewers were in the midst of a contending season. And, as with most teams currently on the Wild Card bubble, the current mentality is presumably subject to change. The Mets played themselves into this spot with a torrid late-June showing, but it stands to reason that if the pendulum swings in the other direction and they lose several games in a row to fall considerably further back in the standings as the trade deadline draws nearer, they’d consider operating more as a conventional seller.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

Severino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winter’s free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat issues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts.

That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he tossed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022.

Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his 97.6 from 2018. It’s higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph.

Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severino’s track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side.

That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with reporting from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last year’s struggles led them to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ahead of the deadline. Then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency and David Peterson required hip surgery that will force him to miss the start of next season.

All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto, but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the club’s Opening Day plans.

It’s still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction won’t make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but reporting from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat less-aggressive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step.

This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson before a bigger three-year strike on Sonny Gray. Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans.

For now, they’ve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isn’t able to get back in good form, the Mets won’t have impacted their plans for competing in the long term.

In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to Roster Resource, this move pushes the club’s competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next year’s base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but it’s distinctly possible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the specific bonus structure.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”