These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

• The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
• The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
• The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
• The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
• The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
• The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
• The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

• The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
• The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
• Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
• The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
• Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
• The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
• The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
• The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
• The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
• The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
• The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

Colorado also reinstated left-hander Lucas Gilbreath from the 60-day injured list. A spot on the 40-man roster was already cleared by yesterday’s outright of Josh Rogers. Gilbreath has been out since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2023.

1:55pm: In place of Diaz, the Rockies are expected to select the contract of catching prospect Drew Romo, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’ll presumably slot into the Rockies’ primary catching role down the stretch and audition for a potential long-term gig behind the plate in Denver.

1:45pm: The Rockies are releasing catcher Elias Diaz, whom they placed on outright waivers earlier this week, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. Once he’s cleared release waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any club. The new team would only owe Diaz the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster or injured list. The Rockies will be on the hook for the remainder of this season’s $6MM salary.

That Diaz is slated to be released is an indicator that no other club was willing to take on his remaining $1.45MM salary (plus the $50K fee for placing a waiver claim). Colorado could’ve simply kept Diaz on the roster and attempted to waive him again later this month when he was owed less money, but it seems they’ll instead part ways with the veteran backstop entirely, granting him extra time to settle in with a contending club down the stretch. Diaz had been in the final season of a three-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rockies and is a free agent at season’s end anyhow, so the move to release him appears to primarily be about affording him the ability to latch on with a contending club while also clearing time for a look at Romo.

Releasing Diaz now will naturally raise questions as to why the Rockies didn’t move Diaz for even a modest return at last month’s trade deadline. It’s a fair gripe on the surface, although it stands to reason that if Diaz went unclaimed when he’d cost other teams around $1.5MM in total, there probably wasn’t a robust trade market for him when he was owed more money and the Rockies were seeking prospect value in return.

It’s still plenty arguable that the Rox should’ve sold high on him at last year’s trade deadline or perhaps in the offseason, but the Rox instead added some modest pieces and entered this year with visions of a more competitive club than they’ve ultimately fielded.

Diaz, 33, is hitting .270/.315/.378 on the season. That’s a solid-looking line, particularly for a catcher, though metrics like wRC+ (80) and OPS+ (88) feel he’s been below-average at the plate after adjusting for the Rockies’ hitter-friendly home environment. Either of those marks is passable for a backstop with solid defensive grades, however, and Diaz is just that. He’s delivered markedly improved framing grades in 2024 and been credited with plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (5) and Outs Above Average (5).

Diaz has never been a plus hitter outside of a strong 2018 showing with the Pirates, but he owns a .254/.306/.406 line over the past four seasons, during which he’s averaged 17 homers per 162 games played. He’s not an elite catcher but is a serviceable option who’s had his share of big league success and experience. At the very least, he’s an upgrade over the backup option for many postseason hopefuls. And as long as he signs with a new club on or before Aug. 31, he’ll be eligible for his new team’s postseason roster.

As for the 22-year-old Romo, he was the No. 35 overall pick by the Rockies back in 2020 and ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects as recently as the 2022-23 offseason. He’s considered to be a glove-first catcher but has shown more offense in the upper minors across the past two seasons, including a quality .297/.339/.499 batting line in a very hitter-friendly Albuquerque setting this season (103 wRC+).

Scouting reports at FanGraphs, Baseball America and other outlets praise the switch-hitting Romo as a plus defender with a plus arm but well below-average power. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen noted that Romo had some uncharacteristic throwing issues last year (19% caught-stealing rate), but he’s bounced back in a big way with a heartier 29% rate in 2024.

With Diaz released and fellow backstop Jacob Stallings also playing on an expiring contract, Romo ought to be given a full run as the team’s starting catcher. Colorado doesn’t have any other near-ready catching prospects — Hunter Goodman can catch some, but they’ve used him more in the outfield — and certainly doesn’t have another one with Romo’s defensive chops.

Romo and Goodman could potentially shoulder the workload behind the plate down the stretch, depending on what comes of Stallings, who’s hitting .266/.367/.457 in 216 plate appearances while playing on a one-year, $2MM contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Rox are comfortable with Goodman collecting more playing time behind the plate, they could make a similar move with Stallings to the one they’ve made with Diaz.

April 29: The Rockies are calling up top outfield prospect Jordan Beck for his big league debut, as first reported by Ben McKee of GoVols 24/7. He’s not on the 40-man roster, so the Rox will need to make at least one corresponding transaction and possibly two. Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette reports that fellow outfielder Nolan Jones is likely headed to the injured list. Jones has been bothered by a back injury recently. He returned to the lineup Sunday but exited the game early due to continued discomfort. The Rockies are off today but open a three-game set in Miami tomorrow. McKee writes that Beck is currently traveling to Miami to join the big league club.

Beck, 23, was the No. 38 overall draft pick out of the University of Tennessee in 2022 and entered the season ranked 81st among all big league prospects, per MLB.com. He’s gotten out to a brilliant start in Triple-A Albuquerque, hitting .307/.405/.594 with five homers, ten doubles, two triples, five steals (in five attempts), a 14.9% walk rate and a 19.8% strikeout rate in 121 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 40% better than league average after weighting for his home park and league run-scoring environment.

It’s a strong showing for Beck and a particularly encouraging development in terms of his hit tool; he’s posted big offensive numbers at every level since being drafted, but he fanned in an alarming 31.8% of his 223 plate appearances in his first taste of Double-A last year. He moved up a rung on the minor league ladder regardless, and a month or so into the 2024 season that looks like it was the right call.

Improvement to his hit tool is vital for Beck, as scouting reports have tended to tout his above-average to plus power and average or better speed while simultaneously expressing concerns about his contact abilities. In ranking Beck fourth among Rox farmhands, Baseball America noted that he has a particular penchant for swinging through velocity at the top of the zone but otherwise tends to make good swing decisions, mitigating his contact issues on pitches thrown to other areas.

As for the 25-year-old Jones, he’s had a nightmare start to the 2024 season. In 103 plate appearances, he’s slashing just .170/.243/.277 with a 36% strikeout rate on the season. Jones impressed with a standout .297/.389/.542 showing as a rookie last year, and while some degree of regression was always fair to expect based on a .401 BABIP and 29.7% strikeout rate, this level of step back was generally unexpected. Jones is actually making more contact on pitches within the zone and chasing off the plate less often, but he’s seen his called-strike percentage balloon from 19.9% to 25.3%. His overall swing rate is down from 41.5% to 39%, and the more passive approach seems to have led to an excess of called strikes putting him behind in the count.

Assuming Beck does indeed get the call, it’ll be his first MLB look and it’ll come with what should be a legitimate chance to win a long-term role in the outfield. Jones looks to have left field locked down — assuming he can right the ship once activated — and Brenton Doyle is in the midst of a breakout performance in center field (albeit with some significant BABIP help of his own, at an unsustainable .446). However, right field is still largely up for grabs. Michael Toglia entered the season as the primary right fielder but has since been optioned to Triple-A. Sean Bouchard and Hunter Goodman have both gotten looks there but neither has established himself as an everyday player. Beck has experience across all three outfield positions though, so he could fill a variety of roles if he hits well enough to keep himself in the big leagues.

If Beck is in the majors to stay, he’d be on track for free agency following the 2030 season and would be arbitration-eligible four times as a Super Two player, beginning in the 2026-27 offseason. Future optional assignments could alter both trajectories.

Black stressed that surgery is not on the table, but there’s no timeline for Bryant’s return. Injuries have been a recurring theme throughout his first three seasons in Denver. Bryant’s 2022 campaign was ended in August by plantar fasciitis in his left foot. He had multi-week absences for a heel contusion and a broken finger last year. The four-time All-Star has appeared in 135 games with Colorado, tallying 571 plate appearances. He owns a middling .249/.329/.391 batting line, including a .149/.273/.255 mark over 13 games this year.

Elehuris Montero has taken over as the primary first baseman with Bryant out. The 25-year-old has yet to take advantage of the opportunity. Montero entered tonight’s game against the Padres with a .210/.250/.226 slash in 68 plate appearances. Only the Astros have gotten less offensive production from their first basemen overall.

The corner outfield hasn’t been much better. Colorado’s left fielders entered play Tuesday with a .149/.237/.253 line, placing 28th (above the Dodgers and White Sox) by measure of wRC+. That’s mostly because of a tough start from Nolan Jones, who was arguably the team’s best player in 2023. After an impressive .297/.389/.542 showing last year, Jones has started the ’24 campaign with a .148/.219/.250 slash. He snapped an 0-26 skid with a base hit in tonight’s win over San Diego but was removed from the game in the seventh inning.

Colorado announced that Jones experienced some back stiffness (relayed by Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette). The Rox will hope it’s nothing more than a blip as the 25-year-old tries to recapture last year’s form. Jake Cave came off the bench to finish the game in left and could pick up a few more at-bats if Jones needs any time off.

Injuries have also been a story on the other side of the ball. Colorado went into the season without Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela as they rehab from Tommy John procedures. Kyle Freeland went on the shelf with an elbow injury last week. The southpaw indicated that testing revealed a small strain in his UCL but seemed optimistic about the prognosis, suggesting that doctors didn’t expect it to worsen (link via MLB.com’s Thomas Harding). The Rockies have floated a four-to-six week timeline for Freeland’s return.

In more positive news, lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath took a significant step forward in the recovery from his March 2023 Tommy John procedure. Colorado sent Gilbreath to Triple-A Albuquerque to begin a minor league rehab assignment. The results weren’t great — two runs on a hit and two walks with one out — yet it’s more notable that he was able to toss 18 pitches in his first affiliated game action since August 2022.

Now 28, Gibreath turned in solid results between 2021-22. He logged 85 2/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, punching out a quarter of opponents. While he’s had below-average command, Gilbreath looked the part of a potential setup option before the surgery.

March 19: The Rockies are in agreement with free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Profar will be guaranteed $7.75MM but can get the total up to $8.75MM with 400 plate appearances. The deal is pending a physical.

Profar, 30, has had an up-and-down career but is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Though his power is fairly modest, he has a good eye and strong bat-to-ball skills. His 11.1% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate this year were both a few percentage points better than league averages. Along with his 15 home runs, that led to a .243/.331/.391 batting line and a 110 wRC+, indicating the switch-hitter was 10% better than the league average hitter overall.

Defensively, though he’s played all over the diamond in his career, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field last year. That consistency may have suited him, as he was given a +2 grade from Defensive Runs Saved and a +1.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average was less enthused and gave him a mark of -5. Taking his whole season together, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, the highest tally of his career thus far.

Going into the 2021 season, the Padres had signed Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that afforded him the opportunity to opt out after each season. The first year of the deal didn’t go well, as Profar hit just four homers while being bounced around the field in a utility capacity. He declined to trigger his first opt-out and stuck with the Friars for 2022, before having a much better campaign in the second year. Going into the 2022-23 offseason, he had just one year remaining on his deal, valued at $7.5MM. He decided to go for the $1MM buyout and become a free agent, leaving $6.5MM on the table.

Profar continued to linger on the open market for months, the last of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents that was still available until now. Recent reporting had suggested he had been trying to get $10MM per season, but that apparently didn’t materialize based on the fact that he remained unattached for so long. He’ll now settle for a deal a bit below that, though he’ll still end up making a bit more money than if he had just stayed with the Padres.

For the Rockies, they have some question marks in their outfield, as Sean Bouchard recently underwent biceps surgery that could keep him out all year while Randal Grichuk is going to miss the first few weeks of the season due to sports hernia surgery. That leaves Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza and Charlie Blackmon as the primary options, though Blackmon made more starts at designated hitter last year and seems likely to do the same going forward, especially considering that his 2022 was ended by knee surgery. Daza should have center field spoken for until Grichuk returns, at which point they could split the duties there as they did in 2022. Like Profar, Bryant settled in as a full-time left fielder last year, despite lengthy time on the infield earlier in his career. When Grichuk went down earlier in the spring, Bryant began spending more time in right, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. That seems to suggest that he could yield left to Profar while splitting right field and the designated hitter spot with Blackmon. Bryant was limited by injury to only 42 games last year, making it sensible to add another corner outfielder into the mix and perhaps reduce his workload on the grass a bit. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette reports that the plan is indeed for Bryant to be in right with Blackmon primarily serving as the designated hitter.

Though Profar is coming off a decent year, there’s still some risk here for the Rockies, given his inconsistency. Once one of the top prospects in the sport, shoulder injuries kept him from appearing in the big leagues at all in 2014 or 2015. In the next two campaigns, he was healthy but struggled to establish himself in sporadic playing time. He finally had a decent season in 2018 but the Rangers quickly sold high, trading him to Oakland. Unfortunately, he seemed to battle “the yips” with his new team, as he made 11 throwing errors from second base in 2019 and got flipped to San Diego. He was solid enough in the shortened 2020 campaign to earn himself a three-year deal but, as mentioned, struggled in the first before rebounding in the second.

The Rockies will be hoping that another year of having a consistent left field position will allow him to be less mercurial at the plate. It’s also possible that playing in Coors Field will suit him well, given the famously thin atmosphere and large outfield. Perhaps those conditions will allow Profar to launch a few more home runs or simply spray the ball all over the outfield, given his low-strikeout approach. With just 11 days until Opening Day, it might be fair to expect that a player signing now would need a spring ramp-up and wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. However, Profar might be a different case since he was recently representing the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.

The Rockies were already running a franchise-high payroll and this deal will nudge them a bit further into that territory. Roster Resource now pegs their spending at $170MM for the season, well beyond their previous high of $145MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s possible that the final tally ends up below that, as most observers aren’t expecting the Rockies to be contenders this year. Players like Profar, Grichuk and C.J. Cron are impending free agents and make decent salaries, perhaps leading to them becoming trade chips this summer if the Rockies don’t become surprise competitors. Then again, the Rockies have also surprised many onlookers, and their own players, by their lack of trade deadline activity, so that’s no guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

There’s a couple of other issues in the club’s lineup, as Allentuck adds that outfielder Charlie Blackmon and first baseman C.J. Cron are each dealing with back issues. Blackmon left a game on March 10 with mid-back stiffness and it has lingered longer than expected. Cron, meanwhile, was scratched from Thursday’s game with back spasms. Allentuck reports that neither player is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day at the moment, but there’s also no timeline on their respective returns.

While none of these three players seems to be facing a significant absence, it will be a situation worth monitoring for the club in the early parts of the season. They are already down a couple of players, as second baseman Brendan Rodgers and outfielder Sean Bouchard each recently underwent surgeries that have the potential to be season-ending. With Grichuk slated to miss the first couple weeks of the schedule, the outfield will be without a second member. If Blackmon’s back issue doesn’t clear up soon, it might make the timing a bit awkward with Opening Day now just 11 days out.

Kris Bryant and Yonathan Daza should have two of the outfield jobs spoken for, with Blackmon perhaps in line for the third. Even if he’s healthy, the club will likely need someone else to take regular time out there, as Blackmon made more starts as the designated hitter last year than he did in the outfield. While Grichuk is out, it perhaps opens up a spot for someone like Nolan Jones, though he’s also in the mix for the third base job, with Ryan McMahon moving to second to cover for Rodgers. Michael Toglia is on the roster and could be an option, but the club could also look to selecting a non-roster invitee such as Harold Castro. The club’s 40-man roster is full but they could easily make room for someone like Castro by moving one of their injured players to the 60-day IL, such as Rodgers, Bouchard or Lucas Gilbreath.

Speaking of Gilbreath, the lefty recently spoke with Allentuck about his upcoming year. He won’t be able to participate as a player as he underwent Tommy John surgery this month, but he already seems to have plans for how to make use of the downtime. In addition to documenting his rehab process on social media, he’s going to work with the Rockies’ research and development team, learning analytics.

“I think for me being able to learn from them and even help them out would be fun,” Gilbreath said. The southpaw says he has a desire to work in a front office after his playing career is over. That’s likely a few years off as he’s only 27 and has had some solid results so far. He made 94 MLB appearances over the past two years with a 3.78 ERA. His 13.2% walk rate is certainly on the high side, but he also struck out 25% of batters faced and got grounders at a 45.7% clip. He should still have plenty opportunities ahead of him once he’s healthy, but it seems he’s using this setback to lay some groundwork for future opportunities.

It’s a disappointing but not surprising development. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported last week that the procedure was likely after Gilbreath had undergone an MRI. Perhaps not coincidentally, Colorado signed veteran southpaw Brad Hand to what essentially amounts to a $3MM deal (assuming he’s not cut within the next three weeks) over the weekend. Hand should step in as Colorado’s top left-handed reliever, with waiver claim Brent Suter adding a potential multi-inning option from the left side.

Hand and Suter make for a decent pairing of matchup options for skipper Bud Black. Still, the club will obviously be disappointed to lose Gilbreath, who had somewhat quietly put together a nice 2022 campaign. The 27-year-old worked to a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings, striking out 26.2% of batters faced with a solid 46.7% grounder rate. Gilbreath walked nearly 14% of opponents but he stifled left-handed batters to a .186 average and meager .220 slugging mark over 74 plate appearances.

The Rox will place Gilbreath on the 60-day injured list once the need for a 40-man roster spot arises. He’ll collect a full year of service while rehabbing, bringing him up to two years and 147 days of MLB time at season’s end. He’s a virtual lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter, though his lack of a platform showing means he’s not likely to collect a salary much higher than the league minimum if tendered a contract. Colorado can control Gilbreath through the 2027 campaign.

10:55am: Rockies fans received a pair of disappointing health updates today, as both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and reliever Lucas Gilbreath could require season-ending surgery. Rodgers, who dislocated his shoulder, earlier this week, has sustained “more damage than expected” to the shoulder capsule, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Harding notes that while no decision has been made yet, the possible surgery could threaten Rodgers’s 2023 season. As for Gilbreath, Harding reports that the lefty has undergone an MRI and describes Tommy John surgery as “likely”, though Gilbreath noted to Harding that he and the organization are still “looking into different options.”

Rodgers, 26, is coming off a breakout season of sorts where despite his .266/.325/.408 slash line leading to a below-average 92 wRC+, his work with the glove earned him a Gold Glove and contributed to a bWAR of 4.3. Rodgers was set to be the everyday second baseman in Colorado this season, and seemed likely to be one of the most valuable players on the club this season, as he was in 2021 when the aforementioned 4.3 bWAR figure led the team, with Ryan McMahon’s 3.1 figure coming in second among position players.

Gilbreath, meanwhile, was set to enter his age-27 season as one of the most reliable relievers in the Rockies bullpen. Gilbreath pitched very well over the past two seasons for a hurler who calls Coors Field his home ballpark, posting a 3.78 ERA (126 ERA+) and 3.92 FIP over the past two seasons, though those results come with a significant platoon split, as he dominated southpaws while struggling against righties. Should he undergo Tommy John surgery as expected, Gilbreath will surely miss not only all of the 2023 season, but the beginning of the 2024 season as well.

Should the club lose both players for the 2023 season, Colorado’s already slim hopes of contention (ZiPS gives the club playoff odds of just 0.1% entering the 2023 season, the lowest of all 30 clubs) will become even murkier. Assuming losing Gilbreath doesn’t spur the Rockies, who signed just two free agents to major league deals for a combined $8.5MM guarantee this offseason, to spend on a replacement lefty such as Zack Britton, Will Smith, or Brad Hand, the club will instead go into the season with Brent Suter as the bullpen’s primary left-handed option, and a depth option such as Gavin Hollowell or Phillips Valdez will take Gilbreath’s spot in the bullpen.

In looking to replace Rodgers, the first decision Rockies brass must make is whether or not to move Ryan McMahon, a top-tier defender at third base who also has experience at second, over to the keystone. If they do so, either Nolan Jones or Kris Bryant has ample experience at third base and could slot into the lineup at the hot corner with relative ease, though neither player brings anything close to McMahon’s defensive abilities at the position. Should the club feel McMahon’s defensive abilities at third are too valuable to lose, the options at second base are far less inspiring, with Alan Trejo representing the most likely option on the 40-man roster, while other possible options include non-roster invitees Harold Castro and Cole Tucker.

Rodgers was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and will make $2.7MM in 2023. Rodgers will be arb eligible again for two more seasons before he’s expected to hit free agency following the 2025 season. Gilbreath, but as a likely Super Two candidate, is expected to reach arbitration this coming offseason, and is controllable through the end of the 2027 season. If Gilbreath is indeed out for the season, whatever raise he would receive in arbitration this offseason if he does pass the Super Two threshold would be negligible, limiting the risk of a non-tender this offseason.

Acquired as part of San Diego’s massive trade deadline, Drury has struggled through his first month in Southern California. While he’s connected on five home runs as a Padre (including a grand slam in his first at-bat), he’s hitting only .220 with a .262 on-base percentage over 107 plate appearances since the trade. That’s a notable dip from the excellent .274/.335/.520 line he posted through the first four months of the year as a member of the Reds. Despite the drop in production, Drury has remained an everyday player for a Friars team battling for a Wild Card spot. The season’s final month is also important for him personally, as he’s slated to hit the open market at the end of the year.

Let’s check in on a couple other injury situations within the division:

• The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, with a left hand sprain. Reliever Yunior Marte is up from Triple-A Sacramento to take the roster spot. Part of a matchup-heavy outfield in San Francisco, Slater has emerged as a highly productive role player when in the lineup for manager Gabe Kapler. He’s hitting .267/.378/.396 over 286 plate appearances this season, his third straight above-average campaign. The righty-hitting Slater carries a .257/.357/.424 line dating back to the start of 2020, including a massive .284/.389/.497 showing against left-handed pitching. Luis González has been in the lineup each of the past four days as Slater has nursed the injury that’ll now send him to the IL.
• Rockies reliever Lucas Gilbreath is being shut down for the season, reports Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette (Twitter link). The left-hander is on the injured list with a flexor strain in his throwing elbow, and he’s headed for a platelet-rich plasma injection. Allentuck adds that Gilbreath’s offseason work will be delayed by the issue, but the expectation is that he’ll avoid surgery and should be ready for Spring Training. Gilbreath has been a trusted relief option for skipper Bud Black this year, getting into 47 games and working 43 innings. He posted a 4.19 ERA with above-average strikeout (26.2%) and ground-ball (46.7%) marks, but he battled some control inconsistency.

While the severity of the issue still isn’t known, it’s at least enough for Gilbreath to miss the next couple of weeks. An issue to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is always somewhat worrisome, though the club will surely get more information before deciding how to proceed. The Rox are in the basement of the National League West and won’t be in contention down the stretch, meaning there will be little incentive to rush him back to the mound.

Gilbreath has been an effective southpaw for Colorado over the past couple of seasons, registering a 3.78 ERA, not too shabby for someone who plays their home games at Coors Field. In 85 2/3 career innings, he has a 25% strikeout rate and 45.7% groundball rate, though an elevated 13.2% walk rate.

Some other injury notes from the Senior Circuit…

• Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is still trying to get back on the mound this season, having been on the injured list since late June due to a right knee bruise. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that Eflin might be able to throw a bullpen this week, with the aim of eventually returning as a reliever. Given that there’s just over a month remaining in the regular season, it would be difficult for him to build back up to a starter’s workload in time to make a significant contribution. The righty has quietly been an effective member of the rotation, having registered a 4.21 ERA over 98 games, 93 of them starts, going back to the beginning of the 2018 season. He is highly likely to reach free agency this year, as he and the Phils have a mutual option for 2023, with those provisions almost never being triggered by both parties. The club currently holds the second of three Wild Card spots in the National League and a postseason run could give Eflin more time to showcase his health before reaching the open market.
• Reds righty Hunter Greene is set to head out on a rehab assignment, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s been out of action for over three weeks now due to a strain in his throwing shoulder, though appears to be slated to return after a couple of rehab outings. The highly-touted rookie is known for his tremendous velocity, though he’s yet to put it to great use at the big league level. He currently owns a 5.26 ERA after 102 2/3 innings in the majors, despite a strong 28.8% strikeout rate. When batters don’t strike out, they appear to be making good contact, as Greene’s barrel percentage is only in the league’s 10th percentile while his hard hit rate is in the 30th percentile. He’ll look to finish the season on a positive note before the winter begins. Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft are all under 25 years old and showed intriguing skills in their debuts this year. The Reds will surely be hoping to maximize the talents of that trio in order to have a strong foundation of starting pitching to build around in the future.
• Righty Jack Flaherty is going to throw another rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the Cardinals on Labor Day, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. After an elite season in 2019 wherein he threw 196 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, Flaherty is now in his third straight injury-limited campaign. He’s made just three starts this year in between IL stints due to shoulder injuries. If he’s able to return and flash his 2019 form, he’d be a tremendous difference maker for the Cards down the stretch and into the postseason. The club is currently 5 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers in the race for the division crown. Flaherty hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in each of his last three rehab outings.
• Cubs lefty Wade Miley is still looking to make his way back to a mound before the season is out, speaking to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his year. “I can’t shut it down,” Miley said. “If I want to keep playing baseball beyond this year, I have to prove to people that I’m not broke. And I don’t feel like I’m broke by any means.” After throwing 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA with the Reds last year, he was claimed on waivers by the Cubs but has been limited to just four starts and 19 innings here in 2022, due to various ailments, primarily in his throwing shoulder. He will be hoping to return to action and show some effectiveness before the end of the season, when he will become a free agent and turn 36 years old in November.

8:29AM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray left Friday’s game after 2 1/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black described as right elbow soreness and tightness in Gray’s forearm.  Gray was charged with five runs in the abbreviated outing, with the injury clearly a factor.

“When I spoke to Jon, he indicated that his soreness impacted his pitching,” Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters.  “I don’t think he felt it on every pitch.  It started to tighten as the game went on.  That’s when we noticed the variability with his pitch-making and with his mannerisms.”

In the bigger picture, any sort of forearm or elbow issue is naturally a major concern for a pitcher.  It seems likely that Gray will miss at least one start for precautionary reasons if nothing else due to the nature of the injury, and a trip to the injured list shouldn’t be ruled out until Gray undergoes further testing and medical examination.  Gray has generally avoided any major arm injuries over the years, apart from the shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his 2020 season in early September.

While it’s too early to ring the alarm on a potential Tommy John surgery, an injury that sidelines Gray for any noteworthy amount of time will have some ramifications on both his future and the Rockies’ trade deadline plans.  In the opinion of MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Gray is nothing less than the top trade candidate in baseball at this point in the season, owing to Colorado’s spot near the bottom of the standings, Gray’s decent numbers through 63 innings, and the righty’s impending free agent status.

An IL stint of anything more than a month or so would throw a wrench into Gray’s trade value, or perhaps prevent a deal altogether if teams are concerned about Gray’s arm.  Similarly, Gray’s ability to score a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter could be hampered, perhaps to the point where he’d have to settle for a one-year deal.

Gray had been inconsistent in the three starts prior to last night’s injury-shortened appearance, and for the season, he has posted a 4.29 ERA/4.72 SIERA over 63 innings.  His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both below average, but Gray’s overall Statcast outlook is not bad, and his 52.4% grounder rate is a career high.  Though Gray has been much better at Coors Field than on the road this season, he has some value as a potential change-of-scenery candidate who could perhaps thrive in a more normal pitching environment than the thin air of Colorado.

The injury compounds a tough beginning to the season for Senzatela, who has a 5.76 ERA through six starts.  The ERA is perhaps a bit deceptive, as he allowed seven runs over 3 1/3 innings in his first outing of the season and a 4.10 ERA in in his five outings, though Senzatela’s Statcast metrics aren’t terribly impressive.  The grounder specialist has his typically strong ground-ball rate (52.4%) but his 13.1% strikeout rate is among the league’s lowest.  Senzatela’s arsenal has made him a decent back-of-the-rotation option for Colorado over the last three seasons, and he had a 3.44 ERA over 73 1/3 frames in 2020.

It isn’t known if Senzatela will miss much time beyond the minimum 10 days, and with Kyle Freeland already on the IL, Colorado is facing an early test of its pitching depth.  In filling Senzatela’s rotation spot, the Rockies could turn to Jhoulys Chacin on the big league roster, or perhaps Jose Mujica, Ryan Castellani, or Antonio Santos from the minor leagues.  Veteran Ivan Nova was also recently signed to a minors deal.

Gilbreath isn’t likely an option, since MLB Pipeline’s scouting report notes that the Rockies moved Gilbreath to a relief role in 2020.  A seventh-round pick for Colorado in the 2017 draft, Gilbreath has a 5.35 ERA and 21.6% strikeout rate over 303 minor league innings, none above the high-A level.  Gilbreath has started 59 of his 66 career games down on the farm, but his two-pitch combo of a plus fastball and slider could make him better suited to bullpen work going forward.  Pipeline ranks Gilbreath as the 26th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system.

The 25-year-old Tinoco was part of the return the Rockies received from the Blue Jays for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in 2015. Tinoco debuted in the majors in 2019 and has since pitched to a respectable 4.03 ERA, though that has come with a woeful 7.19 FIP and 6.85 K/9 against 5.84 BB/9 over 44 2/3 innings.

Of the players the Rockies selected, Welker (No. 7) and Olivarez (No. 15) rank among their top prospects at MLB.com.