As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.
Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.
Here are this year’s picks…
- White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
- Rockies: pass
- Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
- Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
- Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
- Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
- Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
- Pirates: pass
- Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
- Rangers: pass
- Giants: pass
- Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
- Red Sox: pass
- Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
- Cardinals: pass
- Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
- Mariners: pass
- Royals: pass
- Tigers: pass
- Astros: pass
- Mets: pass
- D-backs: pass
- Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
- Orioles: pass
- Guardians: pass
- Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
- Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
- Yankees: pass
- Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
- Dodgers: pass
Second round (all but one club passed)
- Braves SS Christian Cairo (Guardians)
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.
]]>Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.
While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.
For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.
In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.
Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.
Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.
Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.
]]>Listed stats are from the AFL. To emphasize, this is AFL coverage.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Braden Nett, 21, SP, SDP
17.1 IP, 21 K, 13 BB, 4.67 ERA
Though he doesn’t have the shiniest stats, Nett posted an encouraging AFL as detailed by Baseball America. An undrafted pitcher, Nett has seen his velocity approach triple-digits as a starter, complemented by visually impressive secondary offerings. Command eludes Nett – an issue dating back to his pre-draft days. However, he showed strides in attacking the strike zone during this fall session. If he’s able to build upon his success next season, he’ll find his way into top prospect conversations. There’s considerable relief risk here if his command doesn’t continue on an upward trajectory.
Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
84 PA, 3 HR, .244/.302/.423
The second-best Montgomery in the AFL by the numbers, Colson is low-key divisive among evaluators. None that I’ve contacted doubt he has a Major League future. Most see as a blue-chip regular. Where the arguments begin is the type of regular. Some see him as a core performer. While they acknowledge the upside, they’re skeptical Montgomery will reach it. The doubters point to an impending move to third base where there will be more pressure on his bat. Advocates are confident he can support a move down the defensive spectrum. His exit velocities suggest he’s a small tweak or epiphany away from unlocking more extra-base outcomes.
Montgomery took home MVP honors in the Fall Stars game. He went 2-for-2 with a run and an RBI.
Emiliano Teodo, 22, P, TEX
11 IP, 19 K, 4 BB, 0.00 ERA
The Rangers have developed Teodo as a starter, but his future appears to be in the bullpen. Though listed at 6’ 1’’, one evaluator I contacted believes he’s several inches shorter. That’s backed by the FanGraphs crew – they describe him as “lilliputian.” His usage – and success – in the AFL points to an imminent role shift. As a starter, he touched upper-90s. He has the look of an on-meta power arm who relies on effectively wild heaters and hammer curves.
James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
92 PA, 3 HR, 9 SB, .423/.505/.700
The hits, triples, and OPS leader of the AFL, Triantos has long appeared on scouts’ breakout lists. The results haven’t really stood out in full season leagues where he’s been more solid than exceptional. The Cubs are developing him as a super utility type including the odd game in center field. He focused on third base in 2022 and second base this year. He’ll spend 2024 in the upper minors where we all eagerly await to see if his power continues to develop. Triantos is a high-probability Major Leaguer. His future role remains open for debate.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 1B, MIN
74 PA, 7 HR, .215/.320/.585
A classic TTO slugger, Sabato has bashed his way to a share of the AFL home run lead along with fellow Twin Kala’i Rosario. Sabato works counts and routinely runs over-30 percent strikeout rates. In fact, he’s done so at every level. The reward for all those whiffs is some of the most impressive exit velocities in professional baseball. As a right-handed first baseman, the standards he needs to reach are rather high. He was a tad old for Double-A this season and produced an exactly league-average 100 wRC+. This is a profile that tends to late-bloom and early-fade. Sabato is Rule 5 eligible, and there’s a solid chance he’ll be left exposed.
Three More
Liam Hicks, TEX (24): While scouts are dismissive of Hicks for valid reasons – low exit velocities and sub-par defense – there’s no question he’s posted a dominant AFL season. He’s batting .455/.556/.530 in 81 plate appearances. His 15 walks nearly double his eight strikeouts. For Hicks to have big league relevance, he might need to channel his inner Luis Arraez. Or change his approach.
Wilmer Flores, DET (22): Flores’ AFL matches his scouting report to a “T.” He’s worked 18 innings with 22 strikeouts and only five walks. He also coughed up 25 hits and a 4.00 ERA. Flores has an attractive combination of high ground ball and swinging strike rates. Though Rule 5 eligible, he’s a lock to be added by the Tigers.
Sterlin Thompson, COL (22): Thompson has compiled a .950 OPS without hitting a home run in 93 plate appearances. A designated hitter, his bat nonetheless shows signs of carrying him to the Majors. He handles fastballs of all types well. Presently, he’s better at laying off breaking balls than he is at hitting them – a trait that will likely determine if he’s a Quad-A slugger or a future big leaguer.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
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