For much of his career, Lynn was as bankable a source of 30-plus starts as the game had to offer. He did miss the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but in every other 162-game season from 2012-21, he averaged 31 starts. His 13 starts in the shortened 2020 season led Major League Baseball. Outside of that one major arm injury, Lynn was the consummate workhorse.

Knee injuries began to dog the right-hander in 2021, however. He hit the injured list at the end of August that year and wound up making “only” 28 starts with 157 innings pitched as a result. The following April, he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his knee. He was limited to 21 starts in 2022 but still notched a solid 3.99 ERA in 121 2/3 frames after returning in mid-June. Lynn again made 32 starts and topped 180 innings in 2023 — albeit with poor results (5.73 ERA). His 2024 campaign, however, saw him hit the injured list on two different occasions owing to inflammation in that surgically repaired right knee.

Over the past three seasons, Lynn has pitched 422 1/3 innings. He’s averaged 25.333 starts per season. Lynn posted sub-4.00 ERAs in 2022 and 2024, but his rocky 2023 campaign balloons his earned run average in that three-year span to a much rougher 4.71. His strikeout rate and velocity have declined incrementally in that three-year period, although even his 2024 levels (21.3 K%, 92.3 mph average four-seamer) are still passable.

A move to the bullpen for Lynn could be intriguing for a number of reasons. He’s long been an extreme fastball pitcher — the rare arm who can succeed with minimal secondary offerings. Since 2017, Lynn has thrown a curveball for 7% of his offerings and his changeup at a 4.3% clip with an even less-used slider (1.4%). The rest of his pitches have been four-seamers (45.3%), sinkers (22.5%) and cutters (19.5%) — all ranging from 88.5 mph (cutter) to 93.4 mph (four-seamer).

A move to the ’pen would presumably bump Lynn’s heater back upward. He’s never been a true flamethrower but did average a career-high 94.6 mph on his four-seamer back in 2019. Relievers generally have an easier time getting by with a two-pitch arsenal; Lynn could feasibly rely on a four-seamer/cutter combo working out of the bullpen. They’ve been his two most effective pitches, on a rate basis, throughout his career.

There’s no guarantee Lynn signs as a pure reliever, of course. His 2024 season yielded solid results even when pitching as a starter. The volume wasn’t there, but he logged a 3.84 ERA in his 23 starts. The Cardinals generally limited him to five frames per outing, though; he only recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in seven of his 23 trips to the mound. A team looking for an effective five-and-dive starter at the back of the rotation could still bring Lynn into the fold, but at a time when reliever-to-starter conversions are en vogue, he’s an interesting candidate to try the opposite approach.

It’s not known which clubs have looked into Lynn as a possible closer, though speculatively speaking, a budget-crunched club like the Rangers — who already know Lynn well — would be an intriguing fit. The D-backs are still seeking a closer but are already running a club-record payroll after their shock signing of Corbin Burnes.

Rosenthal adds that there are clubs interested in Lynn in his more traditional rotation role. He’d be a relatively low-cost option for teams hoping to pile up some affordable innings. The Padres, Brewers and A’s all speculatively fit that billing. But at the very least, Lynn sounds open to the idea of pitching in a late-game role. He described his reaction to his agent’s initial presentation of the concept: “I went, ‘Oooooh. Is the second act, the final act of my career, closing games?’ It sounds fun.”

That risk of a grievance is due to the fact that A’s will collect 100% of their revenue-sharing dollars in 2025 for the first time under the current collective bargaining agreement. While the team received just 25% of their allotment in 2022, that figured increased to 50% in 2023 and 75% in 2024 before finally reaching 100% in 2025. The issue for the A’s stems from the fact that the CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll.

Drellich and Rosenthal go on to report that A’s could receive $70MM or more in revenue sharing after drawing the worst attendance figures in baseball last year, which would mean the club needs to reach a player payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in 2025 in order to avoid risking a grievance. RosterResource currently projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $78.5MM for 2025, meaning they would need to add roughly $26.5MM in player payroll to avoid falling below that 150% figure. It’s worth noting that these numbers are inexact, as well, and if the A’s receive a larger revenue sharing check than currently expected they may wind up needing to float a luxury tax payroll of more than $105MM in order to avoid a grievance.

For a club that has struggled to lure in free agents this winter due to the fact that they’ll spend the next three seasons using a Triple-A stadium as their home ballpark, reaching that level of spending could be complicated. A separate report from Rosenthal suggests that the A’s have interest in adding another free agent starting pitcher alongside Severino, though he adds that such a signing would likely be a veteran pitcher from a lower tier of free agency. Rosenthal specifically name-checks Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Heaney as potential options the A’s could consider if any of them were willing to pitch in West Sacramento next season.

Of the three, Heaney was predicted to land the largest contract on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list with a two-year, $24MM pact. That $12MM AAV would bump the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $90.5MM, putting them just $15MM away from reaching their estimated $105MM target. The tough sell of pitching in West Sacramento and the projection-beating deals signed by other pitchers this winter could leave the A’s in a position where they’d need to offer more than that $12MM annual figure in order to land a veteran hurler, but they’d surely still need to find other ways to add salary in order to reach $105MM even if they signed a veteran starter to a deal that significantly outpaced projections.

Free agency isn’t the only avenue for adding talent (and payroll), of course. The trade market is one avenue for adding MLB talent that the club has been candid about exploring this winter. Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger and Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery are two high-priced players known to be available in the rumor mill who the club could swing deals for if they want to immediately put themselves in position to avoid a grievance in one fell swoop, but there’s a large swath of other players expected to be available this winter who could add to the club’s payroll in a less drastic fashion. Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz are among a handful of possible trade candidates who will make $10MM or more in 2025.

Another route the A’s could take to raise the luxury tax payroll that wouldn’t require convincing a free agent to sign or swinging a trade with another club would be signing a player already in the organization to an extension. Reporting over the weekend indicated that the Athletics have interest in negotiating an extension with breakout slugger Brent Rooker. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rooker to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter, and any extension that would guarantee Rooker an AAV higher than that $5.1MM figure would increase the club’s luxury tax payroll. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted over the weekend, it’s possible that even if the A’s and Rooker aren’t interested in agreeing on a long-term deal that buys out some of Rooker’s free agent years, an extension that covers his arbitration years could offer certainty to both sides. Such an extension would come with an additional boon for the A’s in light of their current predicament by surely raising the AAV on Rooker’s 2025 contract, though no realistic extension could be expected to raise the club’s tax payroll by the $26.5MM needed to avoid risking a grievance by itself.

12:22 pm: The Cardinals will not pick up their 2025 team options for right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, or Keynan Middleton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club could have retained Gibson and Lynn for $12MM each, while Middleton’s option was valued at $6MM. Instead, the Cardinals will pay all three pitchers a $1MM buyout and send them back onto the free agent market. They will be eligible to sign with any of the other 29 teams as of Monday.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote that the team was “not expected” to keep Lynn or Middleton, but the news about Gibson comes as a bit more of a surprise. The durable veteran came exactly as advertised in 2024, giving the Cardinals 30 starts and 169 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA. However, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that he is prioritizing “maximum flexibility” this offseason, hence his decision to clear as much money from the books as possible.

Gibson has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game throughout his career. Dating back to his first full season in 2014, he has made 314 starts. No other pitcher has made as many 300 starts in that time. He has never pitched like an ace, but there is good value in a starter who can consistently pitch a full season’s worth of innings with an ERA close to league average. That’s why Gibson earned a $10MM deal from the Orioles two offseasons ago and a $13MM guarantee from the Cardinals last winter. That’s also why he would have been well worth a net value of $11MM in 2025. It seems as if the Cardinals understand as much but simply prefer to use that money elsewhere. Woo noted they might have picked up Gibson’s option if they felt confident they could offload Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz in a trade. Her report suggests the front office liked Gibson at that $11MM value but ultimately decided they had too much money tied up in other veteran starting pitchers.

Goold mentions that Gibson has “expressed an interest” in returning to St. Louis next season, and for what it’s worth, Mozeliak suggested the team could still consider reunions with all three pitchers. Presumably, however, the Cardinals will wait and see if they can trade any of their other veteran starters before possibly picking up negotiations with Gibson.

Lynn pitched well over the first four months of the 2024 season, bouncing back from a difficult 2023 campaign to produce a respectable 4.06 ERA and 4.47 SIERA across his first 21 starts. Unfortunately, right knee inflammation limited him to just two starts over the final two months of the year. They were both good outings, lowering his full-season ERA to 3.84, but considering Lynn’s age (he’ll turn 38 next year) and his recent history of right knee problems (he missed more than two months after knee surgery in 2022), it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals were wary of bringing him back on an eight-figure salary in 2025.

The 2024 season was a lost year for Middleton, who could not return to the mound after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. He ultimately underwent flexor tendon surgery in June, formally ending his season. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ decision not to pick up his option is the least surprising of the three. It’s possible he’ll be back to full health by next spring, but his value is certainly lower than it was at this time last year. Wherever he signs this offseason, it’s likely to be for significantly less than $6MM.

In addition to Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, three more Cardinals veterans will be free agents this winter: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Andrew Kittredge. Even with a handful of players eligible to earn raises in arbitration and Sonny Gray’s forthcoming $15MM salary bump (the deal he signed last winter was heavily backloaded), RosterResource estimates the Cardinals 2025 payroll to be $147MM, well below their estimated $183MM payroll this past season. If they had chosen to pick up the options on Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, that would have increased next year’s payroll projection to $174MM.

Neither of those decisions are necessarily a surprise. Previous reporting indicated that Middleton was expected to land elsewhere this winter, and while Lynn’s status was more up in the air it’s long appeared that the club may prefer to retain right-hander Kyle Gibson on his team option, which comes with identical terms to Lynn’s, in 2025. That said, Woo makes clear that even Gibson’s option being picked up isn’t a guarantee. Instead, Woo suggests that the club would be “almost guaranteed” to trade either right-hander Miles Mikolas or southpaw Steven Matz this winter if Gibson’s option does end up getting picked up. Woo notes that the odds of Gibson’s option being picked up will “increase” if the Cardinals feel confident they’ll be able to move one of the two this winter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Matz is surely the more tradable of the duo, even as he’s coming off a largely lost season on the mound that saw him pitch to a lackluster 5.08 ERA amid injuries that limited him to just 44 1/3 innings of work on the mound. While that production is unlikely to entice much in return on the trade market, the increasing price of starting pitching in recent years makes the remaining one year and $12.5MM on Matz’s contract a bit more palatable than it otherwise would be. Overall, the southpaw has been roughly league average (95 ERA+) while swinging between the bullpen and rotation for the Cardinals and figures to be a generally solid serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in 2025. It’s also possible a club could look to convert him to full-time relief work after the lefty posted sub-3.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in each of his last three seasons, albeit in small sample sizes that total just 33 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball.

Mikolas, however, figures to be quite difficult for the club to move. Woo notes that the 36-year-old is among the club’s many veterans (including Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado) who holds a no-trade clause that will restrict their availability to be dealt this winter. The Cardinals will need to have conversations with all of those players about their futures, but even if Mikolas agrees to waive his no-trade rights to play elsewhere its unclear how interested rival clubs would be in his services. Mikolas just endured the worst season of his Cardinals career in 2024 as he pitched to a subpar 5.35 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work.

A hurler who will turn 37 in August with three below average seasons by ERA+ over the last four years and a $17.67MM salary for 2025 seems unlikely to garner much interest on the trade market unless St. Louis is willing to pay down a significant portion of his salary. That being said, there are some silver linings in Mikolas’s profile. The veteran’s 4.24 FIP and 4.28 SIERA in 2024 were far better than his actual on-field results, and he remains one of the most durable starters in the game today. Over the past three seasons, Mikolas has made 100 appearances (99 starts) and thrown 575 1/3 innings. That’s good for the sixth-most innings in baseball over that time, behind only Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. If the Cardinals were willing to pay down a portion of Mikolas’s salary, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of innings could take a flier on the veteran in hopes of a bounce-back.

Ecker’s departure from the search could simply be due to a personal preference to remain in Texas, rather than necessarily a sign that the White Sox are getting any closer to hiring their new skipper.  SoxMachine’s James Fegan described the managerial search last week as still being short of any official list of finalists, even though the team had already eliminated some candidates while still aiming to speak to some other names working for teams still alive in the playoffs.  Dodgers coaches Clayton McCullough and Danny Lehmann are two names linked to the Sox that might fit this description, though a wide range of names are rumored to be on Chicago’s list.  Most of the rumored candidates (like Ecker) would be first-time managers at the big league level, though Skip Schumaker and Phil Nevin both have past experience running MLB clubs.

More from both the AL and NL Central…

• A pair of IL stints due to right knee inflammation limited to Lance Lynn to just two starts over the last two months of the season, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Lynn is feeling better “and expects to have a normal offseason of preparation.”  This is good news for Lynn as he heads into his 14th Major League season, and despite the knee issues, Lynn still had a solid 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings for the Cardinals.  Since the Cards are planning to cut payroll in a rebuild year, it isn’t a guarantee that Lynn’s $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) will be exercised, though St. Louis is probably more likely to pick up the option and then shop Lynn on the trade market this winter.
• In other Cardinals news, Goold reports that longtime front office staffer Matt Slater is leaving the organization.  Slater has been with the team since 2007 working as a scout, director of player personnel, and (for the last seven seasons) as a special assistant to the GM in a player procurement capacity.  These roles meant that Slater was directly involved in the acquisition of several notable Cards players, and Goold notes that Slater was particularly influential in the team’s international scouting practices.  This resume drew Slater some attention from the Tigers and Phillies in past GM searches, and he probably shouldn’t have much trouble landing a new gig with another team.
• The Pirates have hired Kevin Tenenbaum to lead their analytics department as the club’s new VP of research and development, according to reporter John Dreker (X link).  The 32-year-old Tenenbaum has spent the last seven seasons in Cleveland’s R&D department, working as the director in 2022 and then VP of the Guardians’ analytics team this past season.  This experience with another lower-spending team is surely of interest to the Pirates, especially given the Guards have been a lot more consistently competitive than the Bucs have in recent years despite working with generally comparative payroll.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Jones adds that the Cardinals are expected to host an end-of-season press conference as soon as next Monday, writing that “staffing changes which stretch from the front office to the dugout” are “likely” to be announced. There’s no firm indication yet that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, general manager Mike Girsch or manager Oli Marmol are on the chopping block, but there’s been ample speculation regarding Mozeliak’s future recently. He’s signed through the 2025 season. Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines that it’s time for chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. to make a change and move on from Mozeliak — the longest-tenured baseball ops leader in the NL (and second-longest in the sport, behind Yankees GM Brian Cashman).

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested last week that former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, whom the Cardinals hired as a senior adviser this past offseason, would have a larger role in baseball operations next year and could even overtake the top spot on the baseball operations hierarchy. Hochman suggests a similar outcome, calling Bloom a natural successor to Mozeliak.

As rumblings of changes up the ladder mount, there are players in the clubhouse hoping for some continuity. Right-hander Kyle Gibson tells the Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold that he hopes the Cardinals pick up his $12MM option for the 2025 season rather than pay the $1MM buyout and send him back to free agency. Gibson could command similar or perhaps even greater earnings on the open market after a season in which he’s pitched 165 2/3 innings of 4.13 ERA ball with a 20.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.8% grounder rate. However, Gibson is a Missouri native who starred for the University of Missouri in college and makes his offseason home in the St. Louis area.

Goold lays out that Gibson has not only performed well on the field but taken up a key leadership role in the clubhouse. He’s rarely missed bullpen sessions for young pitchers and has been a mentor for Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante and others. The catching corps has cited Gibson as a huge part of the team’s game-planning, even for games he’s not pitching. Readers can check out Goold’s piece for a fascinating self-analysis from Gibson on a mistake he made to Jose Ramirez in his most recent appearance. The breakdown makes it easy to quickly glean the thoughtful approach Gibson takes to his opponents and see how his experience could benefit those around him — particularly younger pitchers and catchers.

The Cardinals have Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde all signed through next season. Gibson and fellow righty Lance Lynn have 2025 club options on their contracts. Of the two, Gibson seems likelier to have his option exercised. Keeping Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Fedde and Matz would give the Cards a veteran quintet on which to lean. In-house names like Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews and Sem Robberse (among others) would be waiting in the wings should injuries or continued struggles from Mikolas and/or Matz prompt changes.

Like Gibson, righty Andrew Kittredge is open to a St. Louis reunion. The 34-year-old setup man is a pure free agent and doesn’t have an option on his contract, but he tells Goold he would “definitely” be interested in coming back. Though the team’s results haven’t been what the clubhouse hoped, it’s not for any lack of effort in the clubhouse, Kittredge says: “I don’t have anything negative to say about any player in this clubhouse. Everyone comes to play every day, and I like to be a part of teams like that.”

The Cards reportedly plan to approach Kittredge about a re-signing him. The right-hander set a Cardinals franchise record when he secured his 36th hold of the season recently. He’s posted a terrific 2.93 ERA with sharp strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 23.2%, 7.2% and 44.4%, respectively. He’s not throwing quite as hard as he did prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery with the Rays, but Kittredge’s 94.7 mph average sinker still has plenty of life, even if it’s down nearly a mile per hour from peak levels.

Lynn, 37, pitched decently enough for the Cardinals in 21 starts prior to going on the IL. In 106 1/3 innings of work, he posted a roughly league average 4.06 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 4.46 FIP and a 20.8% strikeout rate. Lynn pitched quite well for St. Louis throughout the first half but his numbers took a sharp turn for the worse in July, when he pitched to a 6.27 ERA and 7.04 FIP in just 18 2/3 innings of work across four starts.

Even with that ghastly performance in his last four starts before hitting the IL, however, his overall numbers this season are much better than they were in 2023 and roughly comparable to the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 3.99 ERA (99 ERA+) and 3.82 FIP in 21 starts. While the veteran right-hander is no longer close to the same pitcher who posted a sterling 3.26 ERA (146 ERA+) and 3.39 FIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate and three consecutive top-6 finishes in AL Cy Young award voting from 2019 to 2021, he’s still proven to be a capable back-end rotation option after a disastrous 2023 season where he struggled to a 5.73 ERA (77 ERA+) with a 5.53 FIP in 183 2/3 innings of work.

Given Lynn’s value as a steady back-of-the-rotation arm and the Cardinals’ lack of starting pitching depth headed into 2025, it’s no surprise that the club would want Lynn to make a few starts down the stretch as they evaluate whether to pick up their $12MM option on his services for next year or decline the option in favor of a $1MM buyout. They have an identical decision on their hands regarding fellow veteran righty Kyle Gibson, who has pitched to a 4.39 ERA (97 ERA+) with a 4.26 FIP in 26 starts with the club during his age-36 season this year.

With those decisions looming after the season comes to a close, the Cardinals also figure to use the last few weeks of the season to evaluate right-hander Andre Pallante’s viability as a long-term rotation option for the club. The 25-year-old’s 4.07 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.08 FIP aren’t especially spectacular, but he’s looked very impressive since moving from the bullpen to the rotation in late May with a 3.81 ERA and 4.00 FIP in his last 87 1/3 innings of work spread across 16 starts. Staff ace Sonny Gray and longtime veteran Miles Mikolas both appear to be entrenched in their current rotation roles as well, and that’s left southpaw Steven Matz as the odd man out of the club’s rotation picture.

According to Woo, the lefty is set to be available out of the bullpen starting tomorrow, after making just one start since returning from a lengthy trip to the injured list that wiped out four months of his 2024 campaign. The 33-year-old signed with the Cardinals on a four-year, $44MM deal prior to the 2022 season but that contract hasn’t panned out as he’s struggled to a 4.61 ERA (98 ERA+) despite a solid 3.98 FIP. He’s also been limited to just 185 1/3 innings of work over the past three years by injuries and multiple moves to the bullpen, and figures to act as a back-end rotation option and long relief arm for the club once again in 2025, depending on the needs of the roster and the lefty’s performance.

As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, manager Oli Marmol told reporters yesterday afternoon that Matz, who had pitched four scoreless frames on 76 pitches the night prior, was nearing a return to the big leagues. Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that the Cardinals currently plan to have Matz return to St. Louis to be evaluated by the team’s medical staff before they decide whether or not he should return to the big league staff immediately, though (per Denton) Marmol indicated that the veteran is likely to make one more rehab start before returning to the majors.

The 33-year-old could provide some relief for a rotation that has struggled somewhat this season, with only Sonny Gray providing consistently above-average performances. Gray has posted decent results with excellent peripherals as the club’s top starter, with a 3.93 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 3.14 FIP in 22 starts this year. Andre Pallante has been another bright spot, impressing in 13 starts this year with a 3.75 ERA and nearly-matching 3.76 FIP since entering a rotation role in late May despite a lackluster 18.8% strikeout rate in those contests.

Looking beyond that duo, however, the results have left much to be desired. Miles Mikolas has posted a 5.41 ERA that’s 21% worse than league average by ERA+ and is the worst figure he’s posted in a season since returning to stateside ball in 2018 following a stint in Japan, while Lance Lynn had struggled to a 4.78 ERA with a 4.66 FIP in his last ten starts before going on the injured list with right knee inflammation at the end of July. St. Louis had spent much of this season leaning on Kyle Gibson for back-of-the-rotation consistency and attempted to fortify their rotation by adding Erick Fedde at the trade deadline, but the pair have posted ERAs of 6.11 and 5.63 respectively since the calendar flipped to August.

Of course, Matz is hardly a sure bet to provide quality innings out of the rotation himself. The lefty’s Cardinals tenure has been a bumpy one, as he posted a 5.25 ERA in 48 innings during his first season with the club and followed that up with a 5.72 ERA in his first ten starts last year. Those struggles ultimately left him demoted to the bullpen last summer, though he managed to pitch his way back into a rotation role down the stretch and posted excellent numbers (a 1.84 ERA and a 31.2% strikeout rate) in seven starts after being reinstated as a starter. That strong finish last year left plenty of reason for optimism regarding Matz entering this year, but in six starts before being sidelined back in May he struggled badly with a 6.18 ERA.

While some of those difficulties can surely be attributed to the small sample size and an inflated .362 BABIP posted by Matz’s opponents this year, that Matz struck out just 13.7% of batters prior to going on the shelf is cause for at least some concern. If Matz looks good upon his return, it’s easy to imagine him sticking in the club’s rotation mix for the rest of the season, although it’s also possible he’ll find himself back in the bullpen at some point.

Lynn’s impending return, which could potentially come even more quickly than that of Matz, also figures to play a role in the Cardinals’ rotation decisions. The veteran right-hander has been sidelined for nearly three weeks by knee inflammation but is slowly approaching a return to action, with Marmol telling reporters (including Worthy) that Matz is expected to throw a live bullpen session early this week. That’s a notable step forward for the 37-year-old, particularly because Marmol left the door open (as noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) for the righty to return to action later in the week without a rehab assignment if his upcoming session goes well.

With both Lynn and Matz seemingly nearing returns to action, the Cardinals figure to have an excess of rotation options from which they can decide how best to line up for the stretch run as they look to push their way back into postseason contention after going just 4-10 so far in the month of August. In addition to the pitching reinforcements the club expects to get, Denton notes that the club’s run prevention apparatus could be getting a lift in center field in the near future as standout defender Michael Siani has already resumed swinging a bat after being sidelined by an oblique strain just two weeks ago. Siani recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his abdomen to aid his return to action, which could come before the end of the month if he continues to progress quickly.

11:02 AM: The Cardinals have formally selected Michael McGreevy’s contract from Triple-A Memphis, the team announced. To make room on the 40-man roster, Jacob Bosiokovic has been designated for assignment. Bosiokovic, 30, had his contract selected at the end of June, but while he spent four days with the big league club, he did not get into a game to make his MLB debut. In 33 appearances this year for Memphis, he has a 3.95 ERA and a 29.4% strikeout rate, though his 14.1% walk rate is a cause for concern. He will now have a week to pass through waivers. If he clears waivers, the Cardinals will have the option to send him outright back to Triple-A.

In additional Cardinals news, the team placed Lance Lynn on the 15-day injured list with right knee inflammation. Lynn pitched well against the Rangers last night, limiting Texas to one run on three hits over five innings. However, he told reporters after the game (including Woo) that he was nursing pain in his knee. Woo noted that he was walking with “a pretty noticeable limp.” John Denton of MLB.com suggests that Lynn’s injury is “pretty serious,” and that the veteran fears his right knee could be “severely damaged.” However, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reported last night that Lynn and the Cardinals will “monitor” the injury and “see how he recovers.” While Lynn is out, St. Louis could choose to give McGreevy a couple of extra turns in the rotation. Alternatively, they could push back Andre Pallante’s move to the bullpen.

By placing Lynn on the IL, the Cardinals made room for McGreevy on the active roster. St. Louis also recalled right-handed reliever Ryan Loutos from Triple-A and optioned fellow righty reliever Chris Roycroft.

July 30: The Cardinals are planning to promote pitching prospect Michael McGreevy to start Wednesday’s game against the Rangers (per Katie Woo of The Athletic). It will be the right-hander’s MLB debut. St. Louis will need to make corresponding moves to make room for the rookie on the 26 and 40-man rosters.

McGreevy, who turned 24 earlier this month, was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in the 2021 draft. His prospect stock has fallen significantly since he was drafted 18th overall, but he remains a consensus top-30 prospect in the Cardinals’ system. Keith Law of The Athletic remained particularly high on McGreevy entering the 2024 season, ranking him at No. 8 in the organization. Law made note of his durability and suggested, “He would be an easy No. 4 starter if he could get left-handed batters out.” Unfortunately for McGreevy, he has continued to struggle against opposite-handed opponents during his second season at Triple-A. While he has held righties to a .628 OPS in 207 trips to the plate, lefty batters have torched him for an .839 OPS in 261 plate appearances. Thus, his overall numbers have been lackluster. In 20 starts, he has a 4.45 ERA and a 4.31 FIP, only a slight improvement upon his 4.49 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 24 starts at Triple-A last season. Nevertheless, the Cardinals have decided he’s ready to give it a go in the majors, at least temporarily.

McGreevy’s debut will likely just be a spot start. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explains that the Cardinals are looking to get their starting five a little extra rest amid a stretch of 16 games in 16 days. Lance Lynn is starting for St. Louis tonight, and after McGreevy’s turn on Wednesday, the rotation will line up as follows: Sonny Gray, recent trade acquisition Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas (per Jones). It is unclear how Andre Pallante, who has been in the Cardinals’ rotation since the end of May, fits into this equation. According to Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, manager Oli Marmol has “not sat down yet” with Pallante to discuss his role moving forward. However, Marmol did confirm that he plans to return to a five-man rotation after this week (per Worthy). Thus, Pallante will most likely head to the bullpen. While the right-hander will surely bolster the team’s relief corps, it is noteworthy that the Cardinals are presumably choosing to promote McGreevy for a spot start rather than giving Pallante one last look in the rotation.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
• The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
• The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
• Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
• Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
• ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
• Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
• Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

• Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
• Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
• Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

November 20: The Cardinals and right-hander Lance Lynn are in agreement on a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Lynn, a client of Headline Sports Group, will earn around $10MM on the contract, which is still pending the completion of a physical. Jon Heyman of the New York Post puts the guarantee at $11MM, noting that there’s a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $1MM buyout on the 2025 option. The deal also contains $3MM in potential performance incentives. The option is valued at $10MM, per the Associated Press. That value would escalate by $1MM apiece if Lynn tallies 170 and 190 innings next season.

It’s a homecoming for the 36-year-old Lynn, whom the Cardinals selected with the No. 39 overall pick in the 2008 draft. The 6’5″ righty spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis, solidifying himself as a quality big leaguer by throwing 977 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball. Lynn reached free agency on the heels of that strong run but did so fresh off the shakiest strikeout, walk and home run rates of his career in 2016. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Cards that offseason and found a tepid market, ultimately landing with the Twins on a one-year deal that was agreed upon after spring training had commenced.

Things in Minnesota didn’t go that well, but Lynn rebounded to an extent following a trade to the Yankees and reinvigorated his career in a subsequent four-year stint between the Rangers and White Sox. From 2019-22, Lynn was one of the American League’s most durable and best starters. He pitched 571 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in that time, whiffing 26.8% of his opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. That success came under a three-year, $30MM deal originally agreed to with Texas and a two-year, $38MM extension signed with Chicago following a trade to the ChiSox.

The second season of that extension, this most recent year, marked the worst season of Lynn’s lengthy career. Lynn was baseball’s most homer-prone pitcher in 2023, surrendering an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames (yielding 44 overall). He remained healthy and ate up plenty of innings, totaling 183 2/3 frames between the Sox and the Dodgers, but his 5.73 earned run average on the year was the second-highest of any qualified starter, leading only Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles.

Despite that career-worst showing, Lynn will still secure an eight-figure guarantee. The Cardinals, in need of at least three starting pitchers this winter, surely value Lynn’s durability and the bulk innings he can bring to the table. They’re also likely heartened by the fact that even through all of his home run woes, Lynn still posted an above-average 23.8% strikeout rate and a solid 8.3% walk rate. The veteran righty’s 12.9% swinging-strike rate remained well above the league average for a starting pitcher as well, and he also induced chases on pitches off the plate at a slightly above-average 32.4% rate. Lynn still has good spin on his four-seamer and cutter as well.

While there are plenty of positive indicators, there’s no sugarcoating the bottom-line results in 2023. It was a poor season from Lynn through and through, and he’ll need to rebound in a substantial way in order to have a meaningful impact on the Cardinals’ rotation. Given the Cardinals’ dire need for help on the starting staff, St. Louis fans were understandably hoping for a clearer upgrade with their first addition.

That said, the Cards still have at least two holes to fill on the staff. If Lynn ends up being the “third” of the three additions to the rotation this offseason, the overall outlook will be much improved. Adding a durable innings eater who can still miss bats and limit walks to round out the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation is perfectly sensible, particularly on a one-year contract with a club option. If the team’s forthcoming additions are more in this same vein, however, it’ll be fair to question the overall direction of the offseason. As with all early-offseason transactions, it’s impossible to glean full context; the overarching picture will be much clearer come spring training.

Lynn’s return to the Cardinals pushes their projected 2024 payroll to a bit more than $159MM, per Roster Resource. The Cards closed out the 2023 season with a payroll in the $178MM range, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that he does not expect payroll to rise substantially. That, however, is not an indication that the Cardinals only have about $20MM of flexibility with which to work. The Cards tendered contracts to both Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill — both of whom stand as obvious trade candidates.

O’Neill is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM in 2024, while Carlson is projected to earn $1.8MM. Further, the Cardinals shed several meaningful salaries at the 2023 trade deadline but had been budgeting for a larger payroll prior to their summer sale. In all likelihood, there’s somewhere closer to $40MM with which to work — even after agreeing to terms with Lynn — and that number could further change a bit pending the outcome of various trade scenarios.

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray,  Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise, as Lynn just wrapped up the worst season of his career. He made 32 starts in 2023 between the White Sox and the Dodgers, switching teams in a trade prior to the deadline. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both around league average, but he was victimized by the long ball. He allowed an incredible 44 fly balls to go over the fence this past season, the most of any pitcher in the league and easily the highest tally of his career. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers’ rotation had been decimated by injuries and they sent Lynn to the mound in the playoffs. He started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks with two scoreless innings but allowed four home runs in the third, getting pulled before finishing that inning.

The Dodgers need starting pitching next year but it’s understandable they didn’t want to commit $17MM to Lynn just as the offseason is kicking off. After his poor results this year, he will likely have to settle for a lower salary than that. He may be able to top that number in total guarantee if he can find a multi-year deal, as even back-end veteran types can often get to eight figures on an annual basis.

Though the 2023 season was obviously rough and he turns 37 in May, Lynn will still have appeal as a bounceback candidate. He has a career ERA of 3.74 in a career that dates back to 2011. In each of the four seasons prior to 2023, he kept his ERA under 4.00. In that 2019 to 2022 stretch, he made 95 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Veteran starters can often find decent contracts for themselves, even when the expectations of their production have waned. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals going into 2022 and another $8.5MM going into 2023, his age-38 and age-39 seasons. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox prior to 2023, even with questions around his health and effectiveness. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates for 2023. Perhaps some club thinks they can get Lynn back on track or merely have him serve as an innings-eater, but he should be able to find a decent contract regardless.

As for the Dodgers, they go into the winter with plenty of question marks in their rotation. Lynn is now heading into free agency, joining Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw. The latter has re-signed with the Dodgers many times but is slated for an uncertain road back from shoulder surgery. That leaves Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as a batch of guys with limited experience like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough in the mix but he’s a non-tender candidate.

The club has plenty of payroll space to work with and will likely be very active in free agency. They are expected to pursue two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, though he won’t be pitching in 2024. The other top names on the pitching market will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, with many others also available.

As a result, the Sox moved a number of veterans before last week’s deadline. One of the players shipped off — middle reliever Keynan Middleton — criticized Chicago’s clubhouse culture after being traded. The now-Yankees righty told Jesse Rogers of ESPN last night that players “came in with no rules.”

“I don’t know how you police the culture if there are no rules or guidelines to follow because everyone is doing their own thing. Like, how do you say anything about it because there are no rules,” Middleton continued. “You have rookies sleeping in the bullpen during the game. You have guys missing meetings. You have guys missing (pitcher fielding practices), and there are no consequences for any of this stuff.”

Middleton first joined the organization on a minor league deal in January. He’d bounced between the Angels, Mariners and Diamondbacks over parts of six MLB seasons before signing with Chicago. While Middleton participated in big league Spring Training, he wasn’t on the MLB roster until the Sox selected his contract in mid-April.

From a performance perspective, the 29-year-old had one of the better stretches of his career in Chicago. He worked to a 3.96 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate over 36 1/3 frames, allowing the Sox to flip him to New York for minor league righty Juan Carela even though he’s an impending free agent. However, Middleton was clearly displeased with the culture, which he said predated his arrival.

“When I got to spring training, I heard a lot of the same stuff was happening last year,” Middleton told Rogers. “It’s happening again this year, so not sure how I could change it. They don’t tell you not to miss PFPs. They don’t tell you not to miss meetings, and if it happens, it’s just, ’OK.”

He directed his criticism primarily at the team’s position players, saying that while the pitching staff “went about our work the right way … the rest of the team struggled to do the right thing.” Of course, the mention of skipped pitcher-fielding practices would only be a problem for the pitching staff.

One of Middleton’s former teammates backed up his assertions. Veteran starter Lance Lynn — who spent two and a half seasons with the Sox before being traded to the Dodgers last month — briefly addressed Middleton’s comments this afternoon (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). “I was (with the White Sox) a lot longer than Key was. He’s not wrong,” Lynn stated.

Chicago has a first-year manager in Pedro Grifol. Hired last offseason after Tony La Russa resigned because of health concerns, Grifol had no previous MLB managerial experience. Middleton’s and Lynn’s comments imply that what they perceived to be a lack of accountability began during the La Russa era and has continued under Grifol’s leadership.

General manager Rick Hahn defended Grifol this afternoon. “It does take a manager a certain amount of time to implement the culture that they want,” Hahn said (link via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score). “I know early on Pedro wanted to observe and follow what the culture was in the clubhouse before he started putting thumbprints all over it.”

However, Hahn pushed back at the extent of Middleton’s criticism, taking a swipe at the reliever in the process. “Quite frankly, it’s a little bit ironic that Keynan’s the one saying this because my last conversation with him face to face was a week ago in this clubhouse where he sought me out to apologize for his unprofessional behavior – unprofessional behavior that Pedro had called him out on and had an individual meeting with him about, and Keenan wanted to apologize for,” Hahn said (link from Tori Rubinstein of NBC Sports Chicago). “I told him at the time I figured that was a one off and not something that anyone need to get into greater detail of. And he shared that he understood there was a trade deadline coming up and that if we moved him, he would be very interested in returning to us as a free agent.”

Hahn conceded the club has unspecified “cultural issues” and admitted “we need to improve the leadership in that room.” However, he denied the assertion that any player fell asleep in the bullpen mid-game or that players were free to skip meetings. “One thing we’re not going to do is stand idly by while false reports are put out there about the character of the men that remain in that room,” Hahn said.

The White Sox host Middleton’s new club for a three-game set this week. They entered tonight’s game with a 45-68 record, the third-worst mark in the American League.