But the Rangers have a hole at third base right now, and if Story is indeed willing to entertain a position change and/or a short-term contract, which is the latest, then Story’s fit with in Texas is actually much smoother than it seems at first glance. Even if Story isn’t the target, the Rangers are known to be on the lookout for a third baseman, going so far as to approach the recently-retired Kyle Seager about the possibility of playing along his younger brother in Texas. Seager the elder kindly declined, the offer, however, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

Beyond Story, there aren’t a lot of options left in free agency for the Rangers to add a third baseman. The players available – Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier – are veterans who don’t necessarily upgrade on Texas’ in-house options. Right now, the Rangers would field a third base by committee approach while awaiting the arrival and good health of prospect Josh Jung. Even though he’s injured, Jung’s presence means that the Rangers might only be interested in securing Story if they can do so with a very short-term deal.

Without Story, Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, and Brad Miller are all candidates to get regular playing time at the hot corner. The Rangers also recently signed Matt Carpenter and Charlie Culberson to minor league deals.

If the Rangers were to end up signing Story, it would be a fairly remarkable sequence events, not only because it would mean a 102-loss team signing three of the top free agent shortstops in a single offseason, but because of the sequence of events that have led the Rangers and Story to a place where this could even be possible.

It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers had Isiah Kiner-Falefa ready to return to the hot corner to be their regular third baseman. But when the Rangers traded Kiner-Falefa to the Twins for catcher Mitch Garver, the machinations of the offseason really kicked into high gear. Kiner-Falefa ended up as the Yankees’ pick at shortstop (at least for now), which opened up shortstop again in Minnesota, improbably, for a short-term pact with Carlos Correa. If Story is willing to take a deal similar in style to Correa’s, the Rangers could swoop in and be the beneficiary.

Of course, they’re not the only team with interest. The Yankees themselves have recently been tied to Story as well, despite their recent acquisition of Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson. The Red Sox are also lurking, though like the Rangers, they’d ask Story to move off his preferred position.

Heyman suggests that the Yankees and Astros “likely have an edge” to sign Story because they would allow him to remain at shortstop. The Yankees had reportedly discussed a four-year contract with Correa that included opt-outs before he signed with Minnesota, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). A similar contract structure might be enough to reel in Story, assuming a more modest AAV. Story won’t come cheap, but he’ll be cheaper than Correa, which seems to be fueling the Yankees’ interest. All that said, it’s a bit of an overcrowded fit, with Anthony Rizzo now penciled in at first base, Giancarlo Stanton locking down the DH spot, and Gleyber Torres, Kiner-Falefa, and Donaldson already potentially cutting into DJ LeMahieu’s playing time.

The Rockies made one last call to Story before inking Kris Bryant, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke, but that door appears to be closed. From the same division, the Giants are the other team that have been mentioned as a potential suitor for Story. The Giants have Brandon Crawford at short, Evan Longoria at third, and Tommy La Stella at second, a trio that would certainly make room for Story, should that be his ultimate landing spot.

Seager, 34, began his career as a third-round pick of the Mariners in 2009, climbing through the minors to make his MLB debut in 2011, getting into 53 games that year. In 2012, he had a breakout year that saw him hit 20 home runs in 155 games, slashing .259/.316/.423. In combination with his solid third base defense, he was worth 3.8 fWAR that year.

From that point on, he essentially took over and made himself a fixture at the hot corner in Seattle, playing at least 154 games for the Mariners for seven straight seasons from 2012 to 2018. A hand injury limited him to 106 games in 2019, but that would prove to be his only significant absence, as he played all 60 games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and then 159 games in 2021.

After a 2014 season in which Seager hit 25 homers, was selected to the All-Star game and won a Gold Glove, he and the Mariners agreed to a contract extension worth $100MM over seven years. That contract, which just concluded a few months ago, kept him a Mariner for life.

Over his 11 seasons, Seager played 1,480 games, notching 1,395 hits, 309 doubles and 242 home runs. His overall career slash line was .251/.321/.442. He was worth 34.8 wins above replacement in the estimation of FanGraphs, with Baseball Reference putting him at 36.9. A model of consistency, Seager produced at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons, from 2012 to 2021, hitting at least 20 home runs in each of those seasons, except for the shortened 2020 campaign. Despite his reliable durability, power production and defense, the Mariners were never able to build a postseason-worthy team around him, having not been to the postseason since 2001.

In 2021, the final year of his career, Seager set career highs in home runs and runs batted in, with 35 and 101, respectively. His slash line on the year was .212/.285/.438. Going into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that he could have earned himself a new contract worth $24MM over two years. Instead, he will hang up his spikes and enter the next chapter of his life.

Seager addressed his retirement with Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times this afternoon. The third baseman said he’d decided to retire by the end of the season, a year that ended with an emotional farewell from the fans at T-Mobile Park after the Mariners had been eliminated from playoff contention. “I knew if we got eliminated that would be the last time I played baseball. I knew it was my last at-bats, I knew it was my last ground balls, my last innings,” Seager texted Divish. “All those thoughts were in my head. I had so many emotions going on that day. My family being out for the pregame pitch was magical. I got very emotional very early in the day!”

Seager went on to tell Divish he’d been contemplating retirement as far back as Spring Training and said the ongoing lockout and labor uncertainty played no role in his decision. “It honestly was an easy decision. As much as I love baseball, it was time. I’m ready to be home with my family. I’ll miss a lot of people and aspects of the game, but I am ready to start the next chapter of my life.” Mariners fans in particular will want to check out Divish’s full piece, which also contains quotes from Seager on his appreciation for the Seattle fanbase as well as interest he’d received from other teams this winter after the M’s bought out his club option for 2022.

The MLBTR team would like to extend a heartfelt congratulations to Kyle for an incredible career and wish him the best of luck in whatever comes next.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

The team has yet to announce the move, but the front office informed Seager and his representatives at Jet Sports of the decision earlier this week. That notification followed the typical process for moves of this sort; after trying but failing to reach Seager personally over the phone, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto contacted Jet Sports. Assistant general manager Justin Hollander then formally notified Seager of the buyout via email, as is standard procedure.

It brings an end to the longtime relationship between Seager and the Mariners, as he played 11 seasons for the M’s after being selected in the third round of the 2009 draft.  This long tenure has placed Seager among the likes of Edgar Martinez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Ken Griffey Jr. near the top of many of the franchise’s all-time statistical lists, as Seager has hit .251/.321/.442 with 242 home runs over 6204 plate appearances in a Mariners uniform.

Seager’s time in Seattle didn’t include any postseason appearances, however, and his performance did naturally dip as he got older.  Seager generated 13.8 fWAR over his first three-plus seasons, and then after signing a seven-year, $100MM extension in the 2014-15 offseason, has compiled 21 fWAR over the life of that contract.  (By Fangraphs’ valuations, Seager has been worth $267.5MM over his 11 seasons.)  Among the many inflammatory comments made by former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather in his infamous rotary club speech back in February, Mather praised Seager for being a good clubhouse leader but also referred to the third baseman as “probably overpaid.”

It seems like Mather’s opinion might have extended throughout upper management, given by Dipoto’s rather odd avoidance of the team’s longest-tenured player.  As Dipoto revamped the Mariners’ roster over the last few years, Seager was the last veteran remaining, in large due to a provision in his contract that would have turned the 2022 club option into a player option in the event of a trade.  In short, there didn’t seem to be much of a chance that the Mariners would exercise Seager’s option, and they will now move on to looking for a new third baseman (if Abraham Toro isn’t given a clear crack at the everyday job).

Seager turns 34 this week, and he’ll now make his first trip into the open market after a mixed bag of platform year.  Seager slashed only .212/.285/.438, with a career-high 24% strikeout rate and 29.6% whiff rate — disturbing numbers for a player who has been a pretty solid contact hitter for much of his career.  Seager’s hard-hit ball rate was also below average, though on the plus side, he did hit a career-best 35 home runs.  His third base glove has also remained strong in the eyes of the Outs Above Average (+4) and UZR/150 (+3.9) metrics, though Defensive Runs Saved (-3) wasn’t as impressed.

Editor’s note: This post has been updated to reflect that the Mariners’ front office followed the standard procedure for informing Seager his club option was being bought out, as Divish expressed in a follow-up thread.

All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market.  Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix.  In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

More on other pending or possible free agents…

• Brandon Belt and the Giants had some in-season negotiations about a contract extension, and while “talks didn’t go anywhere,” NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic feels there is enough mutual interest between the two sides that Belt will return to San Francisco in 2022 and beyond.  Though Belt turns 34 in April and battled multiple injuries, he has also been hitting at the highest level of his career — Belt has hit .285/.393/.595 with 38 home runs over 560 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  The Giants have already worked out an extension with the other member of “the Brandons,” locking up Brandon Crawford to a new two-year deal back in August.
• “The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag.  Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price.  Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.
• Speaking of contract options, The Athletic’s James Fegan predicts the White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on Cesar Hernandez for next season.  Hernandez hit only .232/.309/.299 in 217 PA after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline, so Fegan believes the Sox will be looking to upgrade at the keystone, rather than just retain Hernandez or hand the position to some combination of Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick or Romy Gonzalez.  More offensive production will of course be welcome, but the White Sox might also prioritize a strong second base glove as a way of improving the club’s run-prevention efforts.

On top of that young base, the M’s have a wide open payroll outlook. In the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Mariners enter the upcoming offseason with just $19.2MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022. Assuming the club declines a four-year, $66MM package deal of team options on Yusei Kikuchi, the southpaw would have the right to exercise a $13MM player option. Even if Kikuchi returns on his option, that’d leave the Mariners with just north of $32MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter.

Their first tough offseason call will be whether to bring franchise cornerstone Kyle Seager back into the fold. The club holds a $20MM option on Seager’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’ll be a net $18MM call for the front office. That raises the possibility that yesterday’s game was Seager’s final as a Mariner, and manager Scott Servais removed him from the game during the top of the ninth inning (once the Red Sox won and had officially eliminated Seattle from playoff contention) to give fans at T-Mobile Park an opportunity to show their appreciation for Seager’s time in the organization.

For his part, Seager told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times he hasn’t heard from the front office about the status of his option. In something of an eyebrow-raising comment, the veteran third baseman added he hasn’t spoken with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto “in years, probably four years. We don’t communicate at all. Not even passing by in the hall. If he spoke to my agent or anything like that, I haven’t heard anything.”

“It’s a weird spot to be in,” Seager elaborated (via Divish). “You kind of want to know, but unfortunately it’s out of our control. He’s not obligated or anything to tell me one way or the other. You have to prepare like you’re not going to be here. The writing’s been on the wall for a while. There’s nobody left from when I first got here. That’s not uncommon with a regime change. You bring in your own guys. You do your own thing.”

Reading between the lines, Seager’s comments would seem to suggest he’s anticipating the team buying his option out. Given Seager’s respected status in the organization and among the fan base, it’s something of a surprise to hear his contact with Dipoto is so infrequent. Still, Dipoto and his staff need not have a strong personal connection with Seager to judge picking up his option a worthy investment.

Seager has consistently been an above-average player on both sides of the ball throughout his career. He had an atypical 2021 season, posting a career-worst .212 batting average and his second-lowest on-base percentage (.285). But he also popped 35 home runs, a personal-best tally that tied him for seventeenth in MLB. Seager’s overall .212/.285/.438 line checked in at almost exactly league average by measure of wRC+, after accounting for Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

It was a similarly confounding year for Seager on the defensive side of the ball. Advanced metrics were split on his work, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as a bit above-average, while Defensive Runs Saved thought he was a little below par. He’s generally well-regarded with the glove and has posted strong defensive marks in the past, so it’d probably be fair to project Seager as an average or slightly above-average player at the hot corner in 2022.

A player who’s a tick above-average at all facets of the game certainly carries value, even if many teams wouldn’t jump to pay $18MM for that level of production. Seager, however, means a lot to the fanbase (as yesterday’s on-field celebration showed) and to many in that clubhouse. Shortstop J.P. Crawford teared up following yesterday’s game when speaking about Seager’s influence on him (video via Jomboy Media). Crawford’s only one player, of course, but it seems likely others in the clubhouse feel similarly connected to Seager, the franchise’s longest-tenured active player.

For a franchise with as clean a payroll outlook as the Mariners’, a case can be made for exercising Seager’s option, even if it seems a bit pricey on first glance. The club does have Abraham Toro as a potential in-house replacement at the hot corner, though. Toro came up through the Astros’ system as a third base prospect; the M’s moved him primarily to second base after acquiring him at the trade deadline, but the front office could slide Toro back to his natural position were they to buy Seager out. Doing so would require pursuing an upgrade at second base during a year in which the free agent options at the position are fairly weak, but Dipoto has already hinted at the possibility of an active offseason.

9:25 am: Kyle Seager has been a Mariner since the club selected him with the 82nd overall draft pick back in 2009, but the Mariners will soon face a decision on the former All-Star who’s held down the hot corner at T-Mobile Park/Safeco Field for the past decade.

Seager is in the final guaranteed season of a seven-year, $100MM contract extension signed back in December 2014, but that contract holds a club option for the 2022 season. While the option was originally valued at $15MM, Seager’s extension included escalators that could boost the option value up to $20MM and trigger a buyout of as much as $3MM (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported at the time of the deal). Seager hasn’t reached the full weight of those escalators, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that he’s boosted that option value up to $19MM and hit enough of the escalators to tack on a buyout in the $1.5MM to $2MM range.

Triggering the buyout means that regardless of the Mariners’ decision, Seager will walk away from the deal with at least $101.5MM to $102MM in guaranteed money. For the Mariners, what was previously a net $15MM decision is now a net decision in the $17MM to $17.5MM range.

Seager, 34 in November, has become an increasingly difficult player to value. His .213 batting average and .290 on-base percentage are both obvious eyesores, but he’s also slugging .455 and has clubbed a career-high 34 home runs in 2021 with a few weeks of games yet to play. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, but the league-average strikeout rate has soared in recent years; he’s only one percent north of the 22.7 average for non-pitchers.

Seager has also had at least some degree of poor fortune on balls in play, although perhaps not as much as his career-low .218 BABIP would suggest upon first glance. Seager’s career .272 average on balls in play is already lower than that of the league average (about .300), so we can’t simply assume there will be positive regression all the way up to the league norm.

This version of Seager is naturally going to be prone to a low BABIP due to his pull-happy (45.5 percent) and thus shift-prone approach, a huge 51.6 percent fly-ball rate (including a 13.6 percent infield-fly rate) and his decreasing speed. Statcast pegs Seager’s “expected” batting average at .225, which would be enough to narrowly push his OBP into the .300s assuming the rest of his profile remained the same. Seager, like so many other players in the league, has taken some steps toward a three-true-outcomes style at plate — albeit not to the same dramatic extent as three-true-outcome kings like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano.

On the defensive side of things, Seager remains a solid option at third base. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (4.0) and Outs Above Average (5) grade him as an above-average defender. Defensive Runs Saved has him at minus-4 this season, but Seager has a long track record of quality DRS marks. His 13 errors have him on pace to finish right around his full-season totals from 2017-19. He’s not Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado at third base, but most clubs would likely consider him anywhere from serviceable to above-average, which has value in its own right.

The Mariners, at least to some extent, will also have to take into account Seager’s status as a foundational piece for the past decade. Back in February, now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather made a buyout of Seager’s option sound like a fait accompli, indicating that the 2021 campaign would likely be his last as a Mariner. Mather, of course, is no longer with the club and Seager has gone on to belt a career-best 34 dingers — albeit with concerning declines in OBP and average, as previously highlighted. FanGraphs values Seager at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on pace to finish as a 2.9-WAR or better player for the ninth time in his past 10 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2020).

The Mariners could simply buy Seager out and slide Abraham Toro (and, on occasion, Ty France) over to third base in 2022. However, both players are capable of playing other positions. Toro has been lined up primarily at second base since being acquired from Houston, and France is capable at both second and first (with more than enough bat to simply DH, as well).

Ultimately, a net price in the $17MM range seems steep for Seager, but the Mariners also only have $19MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season, with a fairly light arbitration class to boot. Combine that with Seager’s career-best power output, solid glovework and legacy status in Seattle — and it’s enough to at least make this a closer decision for the front office than most would expect.

Beyond just leaving on a high note off the field, Seager naturally would also love some more success on the field — the M’s have enjoyed just three winning seasons in Seager’s decade with the team, and haven’t reached the postseason.  The rebuilding Mariners may not be quite ready to contend just yet, and Seager is something of a difficult trade candidate since his 2022 club option vests into a guarantee if he is dealt.  (Plus, Seager will gain full no-trade rights roughly three months into the 2021 season, as he is on pace to achieve 10-and-5 status.)  The third baseman said that he hasn’t spoken with GM Jerry Dipoto about trade possibilities or the club option, but Seager figures that without the vesting clause, he would have been moved a long time ago as part of Seattle’s roster overhaul.

More from around the AL West…

• Alex Bregman has been nursing a balky lefty hamstring in camp, and the Astros star tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that the injury first occurred in early January.  After being careful throughout the offseason and during Spring Training, Bregman felt his hamstring was around 90 percent healed and he is planning to soon get some games under his belt in preparation for Opening Day.  Bregman also noted that he has been “trying to clean up running form…whether it’s posture or working on my hips and stuff like that” to avoid more hamstring injuries in the future, as he missed over two weeks last season due to a right hamstring strain.
• Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie could play in his first game of the spring by Tuesday, if the veteran gets through base-running activities today without any setbacks.  Oakland manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters that today’s drill is “kind of the last hurdle for” Lowrie in being cleared for action.  Lowrie underwent knee surgery in October, as he looks to finally escape the knee problems that plagued him in 2019 and 2020 as a member of the Mets.  After appearing in only nine games in 2019, Lowrie didn’t play at all last season.
• In another Athletics health update, Sean Murphy has been catching bullpens and will hit soft toss on Sunday, according to Melvin.  Murphy is recovering from a collapsed lung and a subsequent surgery in the offseason, and while it isn’t yet known when he might appear in a Spring Training game, Melvin said the catcher is “moving along nicely.”

2:17pm: The MLB Players Association has released a statement about Mather: “The Club’s video presentation is a highly disturbing yet critically important window into how Players are genuinely viewed by management. Not just because of what was said, but also because it represents an unfiltered look into Club thinking. It is offensive, and it is not surprising that fans and others around the game are offended as well. Players remain committed to confronting these issues at the bargaining table and elsewhere.”

FEB. 21, 10:20PM: Mather issued a public apology, stating “I want to apologize to every member of the Seattle Mariners organization, especially our players and to our fans. There is no excuse for my behavior, and I take full responsibility for my terrible lapse in judgement.  My comments were my own. They do not reflect the views and strategy of the Mariners baseball leadership who are responsible for decisions about the development and status of the players at all levels of the organization.

“I’ve been on the phone most of the day today apologizing to the many people I have insulted, hurt, or disappointed in speaking at a recent online event.  I am committed to make amends for the things I said that were personally hurtful and I will do whatever it takes to repair the damage I have caused to the Seattle Mariners organization.”

7:25PM: In a video speech given to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club on February 5, Mariners president/CEO Kevin Mather discussed a number of topics surrounding his team and the upcoming season at large.  The speech was posted to YouTube earlier today and later removed, though not before several outlets (including Grant Bronsdon and Kate Preusser of the Lookout Landing blog and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) took note of several eyebrow-raising statements made by the Seattle executive.

Speaking with an unusual (and rather shocking) amount of openness, Mather made multiple comments that are sure to gain the attention of Mariners fans, players, and the players’ union.  The most problematic remarks concerned how star prospect Julio Rodriguez and former pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma reportedly have or had difficulties speaking English.  Asked to tell attendees about Rodriguez, Mather began with, “Julio Rodríguez has got a personality bigger than all of you combined. He is loud, his English is not tremendous.” Rodriguez has already responded to Mather’s comments with a pair of pointed tweets.

In response to a separate question, Mather went on a tangent about Iwakuma, saying:

“For instance, we just re-hired Iwakuma, he was a pitcher with us for a number of years. Wonderful human being, his English was terrible. He wanted to get back into the game, he came to us, we quite frankly want him as our Asian scout, interpreter, what’s going on with the Japanese league. He’s coming to spring training. And I’m going to say, I’m tired of paying his interpreter. When he was a player, we’d pay Iwakuma X, but we’d also have to pay $75,000 a year to have an interpreter with him. His English suddenly got better, his English got better when we told him that!”

While Mather also praised Rodriguez, Iwakuma, and other players during the speech, his overall breakdown of Seattle’s roster carried more than a few awkward moments.  For instance, Mather continually referred to catcher Luis Torrens as “Luis Torres,” and he described longtime third baseman Kyle Seager as “probably overpaid” while also citing Seager’s clubhouse leadership.

It’s quite possible league officials may also have a few words with Mather considering how he discussed such topics as prospect service time, noting that the Mariners didn’t intend to promote any of the top prospects working out at their alternate training camp last summer.

“There was no chance you were going to see these young players at T-Mobile Park,” Mather said.  “We weren’t going to put them on the 40-man roster, we weren’t going to start the service time clock.  There were all kinds of reasons that, if we had an injury problem or COVID outbreak, you might’ve seen my big tummy out there in left field.  You would not have seen our prospects playing in T-Mobile Park.”

It isn’t any surprise that the Mariners or any other team are looking to gain as much extra team control as possible over their young players, with this tactic most often manifesting itself in a prospect’s debut being delayed just long enough so the club can gain an extra year of control over the player, or delay their chances of reaching Super Two eligibility (and another year of arbitration).  Front office executives couch these decisions under a nebulous guise of saying that a prospect needs more seasoning in one aspect or another of his game, with the prospect suddenly being ready as soon as the service time threshold has been passed.  The MLBPA was already expected to pursue ways of addressing this loophole during the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations, and Mather’s comments figure to be the union’s clearest evidence yet that teams are engaging in service-time machinations.

This coming spring, Mather implied that both star outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and pitching prospect Logan Gilbert would have their debuts delayed.  “We would like [Kelenic] to get a few more at-bats in the minor leagues,” Mather said.  “Probably Triple-A Tacoma for a month, and then he will likely be in left field at T-Mobile Park for the next six or seven years.”  As for Gilbert, “you won’t see him on April 1st, but by mid-April” he will be on Seattle’s active roster.

Kelenic was offered a contract extension of six years in length, Mather said, plus multiple years of club options.  This has been the standard model for most teams when making long-term deals with players who have yet to debut in the big leagues, and the Mariners reached such a deal themselves with Evan White back in November 2019.

Mather didn’t seem to have any hard feelings about Kelenic’s decision to reject the offer, and he also gave credit to White for taking an extension, saying the first baseman “took a lot of heat for signing that deal, the union really pushed back and said, ’don’t do it.’ ”  Mather added that the Mariners will continue to offer similar extensions “to…three or four more players…over the next two years,” saying “we’re eager to sign these players up [and] we’re willing to take that risk.  Some we’ll win on, some we’ll lose on.”

Mather also made some candid comments about Seattle’s pursuit of free agent pitching, as his speech took place before the team signed James Paxton.  The CEO mentioned that the Mariners were in talks with both Paxton and Taijuan Walker, noting that Walker “thinks he’s going to get a three-year deal.  I don’t think he’s going to get a three-year deal.”  As it turned out, Walker essentially did get a three-year contract from the Mets in the form of a two-year pact with a player option for 2023 that will pay Walker at least $20MM in guaranteed money and potentially as much as $25.5MM.

Speaking of the free agent market in general, Mather said that Major League Baseball “lost $2.9 billion last year, and we have taken the position that there are 180 free agents still out there on February 5 unsigned, and sooner or later, these players are going to turn their hat over and come with hat in hand, looking for a contract.”

In terms of the season itself, Mather said he was “embarrassed” that Spring Training was beginning as scheduled, and that the league and players couldn’t come to an agreement on delaying both spring camp and the season itself by a month.  “There is a high level of distrust between the union and the management currently, and I’m very worried about what’s coming in the future,” Mather said.  The Mariners are hoping to have a “small” number of fans in attendance to begin the season and then gradually increase to nearer to full capacity by September, but Mather said that the situation will all depend on local health officials and the state of the pandemic.

As a 32-year-old who’s on a prorated $19MM salary this season and is due another $18MM in 2021, Seager comes off as a logical trade candidate for a retooling Mariners team. But both the value of his contract and a $15MM club option for 2022 complicate matters. If Seager’s traded, he’ll be able to make a decision on whether to exercise that option, and it seems quite likely he’d so then.

To Seager’s credit, he has long been a quality starter at the hot corner for the Mariners. His production fell flat in 2018, but he rebounded last season and has continued to perform well this year. So far, Seager has accrued 147 plate appearances and batted .272/.347/.472 with five home runs and almost as many walks (15) as strikeouts (19).

The production Seager has posted this year and throughout his career would perhaps be welcome in Atlanta, whose third basemen, Austin Riley and Johan Camargo, have recorded below-average numbers in 2020. But Riley has been hot of late, and that could make acquiring another third baseman – especially an expensive one – less of a priority for the NL East-leading Braves.

Here’s more from around the game…

• Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager was the subject of trade rumors over the winter, when “a handful of teams” discussed him with the M’s, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes. Seager has stayed put to this point, and he’s now the longest-tenured player on Seattle’s roster, though he realizes a deal could still come together. The 32-year-old admitted to Divish that a trade remains “a definite possibility.” Seager enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2019, but he’s still owed $37MM over the next two years. His contract also includes a 2022 $15MM club option that will turn into a player option if he’s dealt, which could help stand in the way of a trade.
• Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been battling a right shoulder issue early in camp, but he’s progressing in his recovery, George A. King III of the New York Post relays. Judge told manager Aaron Bone he’s “game-ready,” but the Yankees are taking it slow with their prized slugger, whom injuries limited to a combined 214 of a possible 324 regular-season games from 2018-19. “Start reintroducing him to full swinging and stuff in the next couple of days I would think,’’ Boone said. “I am sure in the next day or two it will probably start to ramp him back up.’’
• Thanks to a productive 2019 season at the Double-A level, Diamondbacks first base prospect Pavin Smith has a chance to make his major league debut sometime this year, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic observes. Smith was the seventh overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2017, and while he hit well in low-A ball that year, he provided little to no power (zero home runs, .097 ISO). He then didn’t produce at a particularly impressive clip at the high-A level the next season, but Smith turned it around last year. In his Double-A debut, he put up a .291/.370/.466 line with 12 homers and almost as many walks (59) and strikeouts (61).

More notes from around the AL…

• Orioles GM Mike Elias said on Saturday that the club likes the collegiate pitching at the top of the 2020 first-year player draft, as reported by Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports (link). Of course, Baltimore has the second-overall pick in that draft, so the club has a realistic shot at landing their choice of arms among Emerson Hancock (Georgia), Asa Lacy (Texas A&M), Cole Wilcox (Georgia), or Reid Detmers (Louisville). Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson is widely believed to be the top player available in next year’s draft, but the Tigers will have the first crack at his burly bat.
• Elias doesn’t sound overly stressed about the team’s remaining commitment to embattled slugger Chris Davis, saying in a fan Q&A–with Zachary Silver of MLB.com present–that the team will “work with [Davis] throughout the season“. While that doesn’t give an exact plan in regard to the team’s on-field usage of Davis moving forward, it certainly feels like a further reduction in playing time could be in the works. Davis got into just 105 games last season, logging a second consecutive season well below the Mendoza line (.179/.276/.326 overall). For what it’s worth, Elias also said that he doesn’t take Davis’ remaining three years “lightly” and that Davis remains an asset to the Orioles’ fan community.
• Sports Management Worldwide is, according to its website, a sports agency and private for-profit sports management training institution based in Portland, Oregon; it was also the recent site of instruction for new Royals manager Mike Matheny, as profiled in a piece by Joe Lemire of Sport Techie. Matheny was often criticized for his strategic management during his time as skipper for the Cardinals, so this summer saw him buff up on his analytics via an SMM course primarily catered toward individuals “trying to break into the sports industry or boost themselves beyond an entry-level job”. The courses taken this summer are said to have covered nearly all aspects of the use of data in baseball, including arbitration forecasts, defensive valuations, and in-game preparation. “How can I stay relevant? How can I see what’s next? How can I provide our players any kind of edge to what’s on the horizon?” Matheny said in reference to his motivation for taking SMM courses. “We’re in a new era in baseball. Players are understanding the data and the information more. They’re hungrier for it than ever before and more open to it than ever before.” While some will snark at Matheny’s educational endeavor, it seems laudable that the 49-year-old Matheny–a man of no small professional accomplishment–would take pains to ensure that he’s adapting to a world increasingly impacted by data and evolving technologies.

Seager has an undesirable clause in his contract that could scuttle a deal, as his $15MM club option for 2022 will turn into a player option if he’s traded. However, Seager may be open to amending that, per Rosenthal, who suggests that he’d rather play for a winner than a rebuilding team (Seattle) and could give up his option rights if an acquiring team’s willing to hand him more money upfront. Alternatively, the Mariners could just include cash in the deal and/or attach a good prospect in an effort to offset the player option, Rosenthal notes.

As of now, Seager’s due a guaranteed $37MM over the next two seasons. That would’ve looked like a wholly unappealing sum 12 months ago, at which point the typically productive Seager was coming off the worst year of his career. But Seager put himself back on the map with a 2.9-fWAR 2019 in which he batted .239/.321/.468 (110 wRC+) and swatted 23 home runs in 443 plate appearances. Now, with teams such as the Nationals, Braves, Twins and Rangers among those seeking third basemen, they could turn to Seager if they don’t sign Josh Donaldson or find a way to pry Kris Bryant from the Cubs.

With so much focus on the Mariners’ newer faces, one of the more positive development of the team’s season has been the re-emergence of a cornerstone.  Thanks to hand surgery during Spring Training, Kyle Seager didn’t make his season debut until May 25, and thus the durable third baseman will appear in fewer than 154 games for the first time since his 2011 rookie season.  Even in abbreviated fashion over 324 plate appearances, however, Seager looks to have reversed a very worrisome decline at the plate.

Seager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances.  That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.

After breaking his left big toe in June, Seager made an ill-fated attempt to try and play through the injury, leading to the worst full-season numbers of his career.  Seager’s production went from okay in 2017 to well below-average (107 wRC+ to 84, 109 OPS + to 86) , as he managed only a .221/.273/.400 slash through 630 PA, while still swatting 22 home runs.

It would’ve been easy to just write off 2018 as a result of the toe injury, though between the earlier dropoff in 2017 and then his late start to 2019, the Mariners didn’t really know what to expect from Seager this year.  While still not at his 2016 peak, Seager has nonetheless rebounded to once again become a force at the plate.  He has 18 homers and a .250/.327/.503 slash line over 324 PA, fueled mostly by a recent surge (1.183 OPS over his last 132 PA) that has made Seager one of baseball’s top hitters over the last five weeks of action.

While he may not remain quite this red-hot, Seager’s production looks mostly sustainable.  His .354 xwOBA actually outpaces his .350 wOBA (which has been a consistent trend for him since Statcast began measuring wOBA/xwOBA back in 2015).  His exit velocity and hard-hit ball percentage are both well above league averages, and Seager’s 38.9% showing in the latter category represents a new career high.  Always something of a fly-ball hitter, Seager’s improved contact has made him the latest batter to benefit from MLB’s homer-happy reality, as his 18% homer rate is by far the highest of his career.  He has also shown more patience, with a 9.9% walk rate this season after a career-worst 6.0% in 2018.

Beyond just a healed toe, Seager also took steps to improve his diet and offseason training last winter, and the early results bode well for him to remain a valuable player heading into 2020, his age-32 season.  His bounce-back performance in 2019 could also revive some trade value, though the terms of Seager’s contract will be a notable obstacle.

Signed to a seven-year, $100MM contract extension by former M’s general manager Jack Zduriencik prior to the 2015 season, Seager is still owed $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021, with a $15MM club option for 2022.  That club option becomes guaranteed, however, in the event of a trade, effectively making it a poison pill rival teams are unlikely to swallow for a player who will be 34 on Opening Day 2022.  The Mariners have been willing to cover money in other trades of veterans over the past year, though between the contracts already dealt and Felix Hernandez’s big salary coming off the books after the season, the M’s have already significantly reduced their future financial commitments.  The team has just under $87MM committed to payroll in 2020.

Even the fact that Seager can again be considered something of a trade chip, however, represents a big step forward for the third baseman given his issues over the previous two seasons.  Since Hernandez is expected to depart, Seager will become the longest-tenured Mariner, and perhaps a veteran bridge to the team’s next window of competitive baseball.  Dipoto has insisted that his rebuilding efforts won’t be long-lasting, so there’s still a chance that Seager’s career revival could take him into a long-awaited postseason appearance while still wearing a Mariners uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Seager will hope to inject some much-needed life into a floundering Mariners club, which has gone a hard-to-believe 10-28 after a 13-2 start over the season’s first couple weeks. Fill-in third baseman Ryon Healy has hit the IL after a middling kick-off to the ’19 campaign, and the team has also lost second sacker Dee Gordon to a right wrist contusion.

From 2012-17, the sweet-swinging Seager established himself as one of the game’s premier third basemen, averaging 4.3 fWAR per season over the stretch, with an overall output topped only by Josh Donaldson and Adrian Beltre.  Seager’s offensive performance has slid precipitously over the last two seasons, however, bottoming out in ’18 with an unfortunate .221/.273/.400 (84 wRC+) line in 630 PAs for the M’s.

A balky big toe may have been much to blame, though, and the nine-year vet spent much of the offseason immersed in a nutrition and weight loss program designed purely to alleviate the pain’s root. A rebound to previously-established levels could make the 31-year-old an attractive midseason trade chip, though the club would almost certainly have to eat a decent portion of the some $45MM remaining on the former all-star’s contract.