A second-round pick for the Braves in the 2016 draft, Muller was a regular on Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect lists during his time in Atlanta’s farm system, though his numbers in the minors were more solid than dominant.  Muller made his MLB debut in 2021 and posted a 5.14 ERA across 12 games and 49 innings with Atlanta in 2021-22 before the Braves sent him to the A’s as part of the three-team trade in December 2022 that saw Sean Murphy wind up in Atlanta.

Given a greater opportunity to start in Oakland, Muller posted a rough 7.60 ERA in 77 innings in 2023, losing his rotation job in the wake of his struggles.  The southpaw was used only as a reliever in 2024 and posted a 4.01 ERA and five percent walk rate over 49 1/3 innings, with the improved control a big step forward given how walks had been a major issue for Muller in his previous big league work.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher, Muller’s 17.8% strikeout rate in 2024 almost exactly matched his 17.9% career mark.

Since Muller is out of minor league options, the Athletics had to designate him for assignment and then outright him a first time in August.  The lack of option years will be an obstacle for Muller going forward in terms of North American baseball, and if perhaps faced with a 2025 season spent bouncing around DFA limbo and the waiver wire, pitching for the Dragons on a guaranteed deal probably carried extra appeal.  Muller is still only 27, so there’s plenty of time for a potential return to the majors if he pitches well in NPB.

Muller, 27, was a second-round pick of Atlanta and a notable prospect with that club. He came to the A’s in the December 2022 trade that sent catcher Sean Murphy the other way.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t done much to impress the A’s since coming over. He has tossed 126 1/3 innings as an Athletic over the past two years, allowing 6.20 earned runs per nine. His 8.5% walk rate and 42.5% ground ball rate are both around average but his 16% strikeout rate is well below par. He also has a 6.48 ERA in the minors since the start of 2023.

He exhausted his final option year in 2023 and was out of options in 2024. The A’s outrighted him off the roster midseason, with Muller clearing waivers and sticking in the organization. He was selected back to the roster but has now been waived once again.

Since this is his second career outright, he has the right to elect free agency. If he does so, it will be another development in making the Murphy trade look quite poor in hindsight. Royber Salinas, another player in that deal, was claimed back by Atlanta just today. Freddy Tarnok and Manny Piña departed the organization long ago. That leaves Esteury Ruiz as the only of the five players they received that’s still with the club. He is a big base stealer but has hit just .243/.297/.343 in his big league career thus far.

Nevin, 27, has bounced around the league and is settling in as a Quad-A type. He has continued to put up strong numbers in Triple-A but has flailed in the majors. At this point, he has a .204/.299/.315 batting line and 81 wRC+ in his big league career but a .313/.391/.536 line and 135 wRC+ at Triple-A over the past three years.

He exhausted his final option year in 2023 and has since bounced around. Since the start of 2024, he went from the Tigers to the Orioles and then the A’s. He was outrighted by Oakland midseason and added back to the roster. Since this is his second career outright, he has the right to elect free agency.

O’Loughlin, 24, made his big league debut with the A’s this year. The Aussie-born southpaw pitched 9 2/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and yielded five runs on 13 hits and five walks with six strikeouts in his first look in the majors. That came on the heels of a 6.19 earned run average through 68 1/3 innings (10 starts, 28 relief outings) in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting where O’Loughlin fanned 22.9% of his opponents against a 10% walk rate.

It’s the first season in the A’s organization for O’Loughlin, who was originally signed by the Tigers and inked a minor league deal with Oakland over the winter. He fared better in 2023 in Detroit’s system, when he pitched a combined 124 innings of 3.99 ERA ball as a starter between the High-A and Triple-A levels.

Muller, 26, will get a second look with the A’s after being passed through waivers earlier in the season. Once a top prospect with the Braves, he came to the Oakland organization as part of the trade sending Matt Olson to Atlanta. The Athletics hoped to be getting a largely MLB-ready piece for the back of their rotation, but Muller struggled badly in parts of two seasons with the big league club, serving up a 6.39 ERA in 119 2/3 innings of work. The A’s tried him exclusively out of the ’pen earlier this year, and he did turn in a 4.22 ERA more than three runs lower than last year’s 7.60 mark, but Muller’s fastball sat at a career-low 92.5 mph even in spite of the move to short relief, which likely turned some clubs off.

Since going back to Triple-A, Muller has stretched out and moved back into a rotation role. He currently has a 4.76 ERA in 28 1/3 innings. His last appearance was his best yet, as he pitched seven innings and held the Rangers’ Triple-A club to three runs on five hits and a walk with six punchouts. The A’s could use Muller in a variety of ways, and if he can impress over the final weeks of the year, perhaps he can put himself back in position to stay on the 40-man roster and be an option for next year’s staff in some capacity.

Aug. 13: The Athletics announced that Joe Boyle has been recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas. He will start tonight’s game against the Mets, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com on X. In a corresponding move, left-hander Kyle Muller has been designated for assignment.

Muller, 26, was one of five players that the A’s received in December of 2022 in the three-team trade that sent catcher Sean Murphy to Atlanta, William Contreras to the Brewers and various other moving pieces. Muller had been considered one of Atlanta’s best prospects in the years leading up to that deal but had struggled to establish himself at the big league level and had just one option remaining.

The A’s gave him a decent amount of runway to take a major league job last year but Muller wasn’t able to capitalize on the opportunity. Through May 22, he had made 10 starts at the big league level but allowed 42 earned runs in 47 innings, leading to an 8.04 ERA. The A’s then optioned him to the minors, recalling him for one spot start in early July, but otherwise keeping him in Triple-A until mid-August.

The results on the farm weren’t much better, as he had a 7.26 ERA in his 13 Triple-A starts. He was recalled and worked as a swingman for the final few weeks of the big league season, tossing 25 innings with a 7.20 ERA in that time.

That left him out of options coming into 2024 and the A’s have kept in the bullpen for a long relief role. He missed just over a month on the IL due to left shoulder tendinitis but has logged 42 2/3 innings over 18 outings this year with a 4.22 ERA. That’s obviously an improvement over his results from last year and his 5.1% walk rate is quite strong, but there aren’t many positive metrics apart from that. His 19.7% strikeout rate is still subpar and his Statcast page is mostly blue, with not much to inspire confidence in terms of velocity, whiffs, avoiding barrels, etc.

Keeping him on the roster was going to be a long-term issue due to his out-of-options status and he hasn’t shown enough promise for the club’s decision makers to keep him around. With the trade deadline now passed, the A’s will have to put him on waivers in the coming days.

He has not yet qualified for arbitration and has five years of club control beyond this one, so perhaps some club will be intrigued by his past prospect pedigree, but they would be faced with the same roster restrictions that the A’s were. As recently as 2022, he was able to make 23 Triple-A starts with a 3.41 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45.9% ground ball rate, but the results have been far less impressive since then. He does not have a previous career outright nor does he have three years of service time, meaning he would stick with the A’s as non-roster depth if he were to pass through waivers unclaimed.

As for Boyle, it’s unclear if this is just a spot start or if he’s going to get a longer rotation audition. The A’s already had five starters in JP Sears, Ross Stripling, Mitch Spence, Joey Estes and Osvaldo Bido. Perhaps they could run a six-man rotation for a while or send someone down to Triple-A. It’s also possible that they put Stripling on waivers or move him to the bullpen. He’s a 34-year-old impending free agent and the club is out of contention, so they might prefer to give starts to younger guys that are in consideration for roles on next year’s club.

Boyle has a 7.16 ERA in the majors this year and a mark of 5.63 in Triple-A, but his work on the farm has been better of late. Back on June 28, he was demolished in his start against Sacramento, allowing eight earned runs while only recording four outs. Since that pounding, he has thrown 26 2/3 innings with a 2.36 ERA and a massive 51.5% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 12.9%.

A 12th-round pick out of Pitt, Evans has a sparkling 1.16 ERA over 54 1/3 innings for Double-A Arkansas this season, with a 23% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and a 53.6% grounder rate.  MLB Pipeline’s scouting report also notes that the Mariners received trade interest in Evans as early as last offseason, after he posted an 0.60 ERA in his first 15 pro innings.

More from around the AL West…

• Corey Seager has now missed three straight games since leaving Wednesday’s contest with tightness in his left hamstring, though Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters that Seager is “making progress” and that an IL trip isn’t yet being considered.  Seager himself said he was feeling “fine” today but wasn’t sure if he would be back in the lineup Tuesday for Texas’ next game.  Between the scheduled off-days both tomorrow and last Thursday, Seager might’ve caught a break in having some rest built into the schedule, giving some hope he’ll be ready for Tuesday.
• Astros star Kyle Tucker was placed on the 10-day IL earlier this week due to a shin contusion, and he expects to be fully off crutches within the next day or two, Tucker told The Athletic’s Chandler Rome (link to X) and other media.  From there, Tucker expects to restart baseball activities soon after, so he could conceivably be a candidate to be activated next week.  It seems as though Tucker and the Astros dodged a bullet in avoiding a more serious injury, which is a relief considering the MVP-caliber numbers Tucker has posted to date this season.
• The Athletics provided MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos (X link) and other reporters with updates on several injured players, including the news that Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn are expected to begin throwing within the next week.  Stripling has missed over two weeks due to a flexor strain his right elbow and Blackburn has missed over a month due to a stress reaction on his right foot, though Blackburn’s placement on the 60-day IL means he’ll be out until at least the All-Star break.  Kyle Muller also already started throwing this past week as he continues his recovery from a bout of shoulder tendinitis.  Among the injured position players, Esteury Ruiz (wrist sprain) and Darell Hernaiz (ankle sprain) will start strength programs this week.

Beyond that, the simple fact is that even prior to signing Fujinami, the A’s had more rotation candidates than rotation spots. That’s not an especially common spot for a rebuilding club to find itself, but Oakland has zeroed in on bulk pitching acquisition over the course of its fire sale/teardown. The front office didn’t target exclusively pitchers, but the A’s nonetheless have as many as seven rotation candidates who’ve been acquired via trade within the past calendar year on the 40-man roster.

No team is going to rely on five starters to get through a season, and even getting through a year with “only” seven or eight starters is a luxury to which most teams cannot lay claim in the modern baseball landscape. That said, the A’s stand out as a team that might lean on 15 or more starting pitchers to get through the season, given the lack of established talent, the glut of nearly MLB-ready arms on the roster and the potential for an in-season trade involving just about any likely member of the rotation.

Let’s take a look at what the starting staff might look like…

The Locks

Cole Irvin, LHP: Not many trades that end up sending cash back to a player’s former team work out better than the acquisition of Irvin has for the A’s. It’s been nearly two years to the day since Oakland picked him up from the Phillies in exchange for cash, and he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate.

With four years of club control remaining, it’d be a surprise if Irvin hasn’t at least generated some cursory trade interest this winter, although his glaring home/road splits might not help his cause much. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA at home, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash.

Splits notwithstanding, Irvin is a perfectly viable fourth/fifth starter, but a team that plays its home games in a more hitter-friendly environment might be understandably dissuaded from giving up too much young talent to acquire him. That’s fine for the A’s for now, given Irvin’s remaining club control and the simple fact that they’ll need some dependability on the staff. If he’s pitching well come July, he’ll be a feasible trade candidate (particularly with an arbitration raise looming next offseason).

Paul Blackburn, RHP: It’s easy to call Blackburn, who made the 2022 All-Star team but finished the year with a 4.28 ERA, a token All-Star who was only chosen because every team needs a representative. Perhaps there’s some truth to that, too, but as I noted last summer, Blackburn was a plenty deserving selection and a fairly intriguing trade chip at one point. Through July 2, he’d pitched 87 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with three times as many strikeouts as walks (18.8% to 6.2%) and a strong 48.7% grounder rate. His .280 BABIP and 80.7% left-on-base rate pointed to some likely regression, but based on results alone, Blackburn was pretty good.

Things went off the rails almost immediately thereafter, however. Blackburn tried for several weeks to pitch through pain that’d arisen in his pitching hand, but he was shelled for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He eventually landed on the injured list due to that pain, and testing revealed that he’d torn the tendon sheath in his right middle finger. He was placed in a splint for up to eight weeks, and his season was over.

Time will tell whether Blackburn can replicate his production from the first three months of the 2022 season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it was sustainable. Blackburn only has three seasons of club control remaining, so if he’s healthy and pitching well this summer, expect to hear his name pop up in rumors.

Newcomers Who’ll Be Given a Chance

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP: The former high school rival of Shohei Ohtani, Fujinami was once lauded as a prospect nearly as much as the current Angels phenom. Fujinami, 28, stepped right from his high school rotation into the rotation of Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a rookie in Nippon Professional Baseball. He was a multi-time All-Star and budding phenom in his first four years in Japan, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA each season. His career has come off the rails since that time, though, and Fujinami comes to Oakland as a hard-throwing but command-challenged project. At 6’6″, he’s armed with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a splitter and slider that have both, at times, made hitters look silly. He’s also been shuttled between the Tigers’ top team and minor league team in NPB for several seasons while displaying troubling walk rates and looking like a shell of the potential star he was early in his pro career.

Drew Rucinski, RHP: In the past five years, the now-34-year-old Rucinski went from nondescript, replacement-level MLB pitcher to a powerhouse workhorse for the KBO’s NC Dinos. Rucinski started 121 games dating back to 2019 and has posted an ERA between 3.17 and 2.93 each season. Along the way, he’s whiffed 21.5% of opposing batters, walked just 6.3% of them and posted a superhuman 66% ground-ball rate. The A’s signed Rucinski for a year and $3MM, with a 2024 club option valued at $5MM. If he can carry over any of that KBO form to the Coliseum, he’ll be a durable source of innings and a nice summer trade chip.

The Out-of-Options Arm Who’ll Make the Staff in Some Capacity

James Kaprielian, RHP: A former first-round pick of the Yankees who was sent to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade, Kaprielian has been injured more often than he’s been healthy. He looked to be turning a corner over the past two seasons, logging a combined 4.16 ERA in 253 1/3 innings over the life of 50 games (47 of them starts). However, Kaprielian had shoulder surgery this offseason, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day. Manager Mark Kotsay said at the time of Kaprielian’s surgery that the organization expected him to be ready, but Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News recently suggested that the soon-to-be 29-year-old might miss time early in the year. (If that’s indeed the case, he’ll land on the IL alongside rotation hopeful Daulton Jefferies, who’ll miss all of 2023 after undergoing both thoracic outlet surgery and Tommy John surgery.) Kaprielian is out of minor league options, so whenever he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster either as a starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever — it’s a just a matter of when that time will be.

Candidates for the Remaining Rotation Innings

(Note: all players in this section have six-plus seasons of club control remaining)

Adrian Martinez, RHP (two remaining option years): One of two players acquired in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego, Martinez was roughed up for a 6.24 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in last year’s MLB debut. It’s a rough showing, to be sure, but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate both portend better production. Martinez’s 2.03 HR/9 mark was one of the highest in the game, and only four of the 344 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2022 saw a larger percentage of their fly-balls become home runs than Martinez’s 19.7%. That HR/FB rate, in particular, is ripe for positive regression, even before considering the A’s spacious home park. Metrics like xFIP (4.11) and SIERA (4.16), which normalize HR/FB to league-average levels, feel that Martinez was vastly better than his basic earned run average.

Ken Waldichuk, LHP (three option years): A key piece in the trade sending Frankie Montas to the Bronx, Waldichuk held his own in a seven-start debut (4.93 ERA, 33-to-10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings). His final outing, featuring seven shutout frames against the Angels, was a particularly high note on which to finish. On top of those 34 2/3 MLB frames, Waldichuk logged 95 innings of 2.84 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s arguably the most highly regarded member of this bunch, and he should have multiple opportunities to win a rotation spot over the next 12 to 18 months in Oakland.

Kyle Muller, LHP (one option year): A 2016 second-round pick by the Braves (who traded him to Oakland in the Sean Murphy deal), Muller has at times been ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects at various outlets, but his stock has dimmed a bit since that time. He’s managed just a 5.14 ERA in 49 MLB innings, but he spent the bulk of his 2022 season pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 134 1/3 Triple-A innings (23 starts). Muller punched out a hefty 29.3% of his opponents. Muller can reach the upper 90s with his heater, draws plus grades on his slider and now that he’s out of a more crowded rotation mix in Atlanta, should have a clear path to innings with the A’s. He’s out of options after the 2023 season, so it’s in Oakland’s best interest to give him a chance sooner than later.

JP Sears, LHP (two option years): Prior to Oakland’s dice rolls on Rucinski and Fujinami, Sears might’ve been a favorite to break camp in the rotation after pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 70 innings as a rookie last year. Acquired in the Montas trade along with Waldichuk, the 5’11” lefty has dominated Triple-A (2.32 ERA in 101 career innings), but a return to that level might be his most straightforward path to starter’s innings early in the season. Sears, who’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, isn’t the prototypical “prospect,” as he doesn’t throw especially hard and has relied more on plus command than overpowering stuff to find success in the minors. It’s a recipe that’s worked well for Oakland pitchers in the past, thanks to the Coliseum’s cavernous dimensions. Even if he doesn’t break camp on the roster, he’ll probably start a fair number of games for the A’s in 2023.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP (two option years): Another piece of Oakland’s return for Murphy, Tarnok has all of 44 2/3 innings above Double-A under his belt (including a tiny two-thirds of an inning MLB debut in 2022). That lack of upper minors experience, coupled with the breadth of options for the Athletics’ rotation, should probably ticket him for Triple-A work to start the season. Several scouting reports on the 6’3″ Tarnok suggest his ultimate home might be in the bullpen, where a fastball that can already reach 98 mph might play up further. He’s never reached 110 innings in a professional season, so in addition to getting some needed reps against Triple-A lineups, he’ll also be looking to build out his workload.

Luis Medina, RHP (one option year): Yet another piece of the Montas return, Medina pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 17 Double-A starts with the Yankees before being blown up for a calamitous 11.76 ERA in seven starts (20 2/3 innings) with the Athletics’ Double-A club. Command has long been an issue for Medina, but he took that concern to new heights with the A’s, walking 22 of the 114 batters he faced following the trade. FanGraphs lauds Medina’s plus breaking ball and elite arm strength, while Baseball America notes that his heater has reached 103 mph in the past. The huge command concerns could lead to a future in the bullpen. Medina isn’t likely to win a starting job early in the season, but the A’s can continue trying to refine his ability to locate the ball in hopes of hitting the jackpot on a starter with this type of repertoire. If not, a move to the ’pen could put him on a fast track to the Majors.

Adam Oller, RHP (two option years): The A’s picked up Oller as one of two arms in the trade sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. Nineteen appearances later (14 starts), he has a 6.30 big league ERA under his belt with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (46) in 74 1/3 innings. It wasn’t the start anyone hoped for, but Oller posted a solid 3.69 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. Oller always profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, and even the A’s massive home park couldn’t curtail the right-hander’s home run issues (2.06 HR/9). A bullpen role where he works multiple innings is feasible, as is a return to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Other Recent Trade Acquisitions

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn missed more than three months of the 2022 season with a forearm injury and was clobbered for a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts of Double-A ball when healthy. He came to the A’s alongside Oller in the Bassitt trade and, as a 2020 second-rounder, was the more highly regarded get for Oakland. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet and is still only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship, but he’s not on the immediate rotation radar.

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The Braves’ top pick in 2021, Cusick was traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson swap. Like Ginn, he spent much of the season on the injured list (in his case, due to a rib fracture). Also like Ginn, he was hit hard in Double-A when healthy, yielding a 7.02 ERA in 41 frames. He’s not Rule 5-eligible until after the 2024 season, so there’s no rush.

Joey Estes, RHP: Acquired from the Braves alongside Cusick, Estes handled older competition in High-A reasonably well. His 4.55 ERA wasn’t especially eye-catching, but he whiffed 23.8% of his opponents against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 91 innings. Home runs were an issue, but that’s two straight years of nice K-BB numbers against older competition for Estes.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Hoglund would’ve been a top-10 pick in 2021 had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college, but the Blue Jays still liked him enough to take him at No. 19 and the A’s still liked him enough to make him the headliner in the Matt Chapman deal. Hoglund only pitched eight innings late in the 2022 season as he worked back from that ligament replacement procedure, so he’s nowhere close to the big leagues. His development will be worth keeping an eye on, though. Lefty Zach Logue, acquired alongside Hoglund, has already been designated for assignment, claimed by the Tigers and then passed through waivers in Detroit. He surrendered a 6.79 ERA through 57 innings as a rookie last year and actually posted an even grislier 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 Triple-A frames.

—

Amazingly, even after all of their recent trades of star-caliber players, the organization’s lone entrant on Baseball America’s Top 100 list is catcher Tyler Soderstrom — who, unlike every single one of the names mentioned prior, was drafted by the A’s. Part of that is borne out of the Athletics’ penchant for prioritizing near-MLB players in trades (as opposed to further off, more highly touted prospects), but it’s still rather surprising to see.

Nevertheless, while the A’s aren’t going to win many games in 2023, they’re brimming with young arms who could eventually hold down spots in the rotation. Attrition rate among young pitchers is enormous, and many of these names will be lost to injury, shift to the bullpen, or pitch themselves off the roster entirely. For now, it’ll be fascinating to see how many of Oakland’s young arms can solidify themselves in the big leagues, because their ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be a driving factor in the latest rebuild phase.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.

The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.

The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.

Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.

Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA

The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526

The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.

That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496

Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.

Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.

Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496

One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.

Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”

Four More

Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.

Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.

Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.

Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.

Braves get catcher Sean Murphy, giving up Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas, Justin Yeager, Freddy Tarnok, Manny Piña and William Contreras.

Brewers get William Contreras, Joel Payamps, Justin Yeager, giving up Esteury Ruiz.

A’s get Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas and Manny Piña, giving up Sean Murphy and Joel Payamps.

The deal is official, with the clubs all making announcements.

This move finally brings an end to a trade saga that has been going on for about a year now. After the 2021 season, the A’s leaned hard into a rebuild that saw them trade away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt before Opening Day, with Frankie Montas getting flipped at the 2022 deadline.

Murphy was widely seen as the next to go for a number of reasons. Firstly, he just crossed three years of MLB service time in 2022 and will now be making higher salaries via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Murphy will jump to $3.5MM in 2023 with two further bumps before reaching free agency after 2025. Secondly, the A’s received a highly-touted catching prospect from Atlanta in the Olson deal in Shea Langeliers. He had an excellent season in Triple-A and carried himself well in a 40-game debut in the majors. Given all those factors, it seemed more and more likely that the A’s would hand the job over to Langeliers and trade Murphy for improvements elsewhere on the roster.

By taking this path, the A’s are parting with one of the best catchers in the game. The 28-year-old Murphy has 330 games in the big leagues under his belt thus far and has performed well in just about every facet of the game. He’s hit 46 home runs and has a combined batting line of .236/.326/.429. That production leads to a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16% above the league average hitter and even further ahead of the average catcher, since they generally come in a bit lower than others. He also took a step forward at the plate in 2022, striking out in just 20.3% of his plate appearances after being above 25% in his career prior to that.

Defensively, Murphy gets rave reviews as well. Since the start of 2020, he’s posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate, a number that places him in the top 10 in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric gives him a 19.5 in that timeframe, the third-highest such tally. Those all-around contributions have allowed him to produce 10 wins above replacement in those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, second among all MLB catchers with only J.T. Realmuto ahead of him.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s hardly surprising that Murphy garnered plenty of interest around the league. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals were some of the teams connected to him at various points in recent months. It was reported about a week ago that the Braves were getting close to acquiring him but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos shot down those reports, saying that he didn’t anticipate a trade. That was either a bluff or something drastically changed in the past week since Atlanta have now indeed closed the deal. This is now the third huge deal Anthopoulos has negotiated with the A’s, though David Forst has since taken over baseball operations from Billy Beane. He acquired Josh Donaldson when he was working for the Blue Jays and has now nabbed Olson and Murphy for the Braves.

Atlanta always seemed a curious fit for Murphy given that they already had three viable catchers on the roster in Contreras, Piña and Travis d’Arnaud. They have cleared out that logjam and acquired Murphy in one fell swoop by including two of those catchers in the deal. On the surface, it seems that the club was keen to swap out Contreras for Murphy as a way of improving behind the plate. However, since the A’s seem set to give Langeliers a shot, it’s possible they were less interested in Contreras, which necessitated Milwaukee’s involvement.

That’s not to say that Contreras isn’t an exciting young catcher in his own right. It’s just that, as mentioned, Murphy is one of the best in the game. Contreras will now join his older brother Willson Contreras, who recently signed with the Cardinals, in the NL Central. The younger Contreras has gotten into 153 games in his career so far, hitting 28 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .260/.338/.471 for a wRC+ of 121. His defensive work isn’t as highly rated as his bat, but he’s still quite young, turning 25 later this month. Even with subpar defense, he’s produced 2.5 fWAR in his brief career thus far, meaning any developments in that department would make him tremendously valuable. It had been recently reported that the Brewers were interested in catching upgrades, but since the club has been paring back a tight payroll, they never seemed like candidates for a big free agent splash. Instead, they’ve acquired a young backstop who has yet to reach arbitration eligibility and has five years of club control remaining. The club has also added a couple of depth arms in Payamps and Yeager.

For the A’s, it’s been reported that they have been prioritizing MLB-ready talent in their trade talks and they have achieved that here. Muller, 25, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons, logging 49 innings so far. He has an unimpressive 5.14 ERA in that time, but he’s fared much better in the minors. He’s made 40 Triple-A starts in the past two years and has a 3.40 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the top prospect in Atlanta’s system.

Ruiz has spent most of his career in the Padres’ system but he went to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade last year. He has some MLB experience, having played in 17 games this year between the two clubs. In 114 minor league games, he hit .332/.447/.526 while stealing 85 bases in 114 games. BA has not yet published their list of top Milwaukee prospects for this offseason, but Ben Badler of BA tweets that Ruiz was going to be in the #8 slot.

Tarnok also has very limited MLB experience, with 2/3 of an inning on the books so far. He threw 106 2/3 innings in the minors this year with a 4.05 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. He ranked #9 on the BA list of top Atlanta prospects. Piña is a 35-year-old veteran who is likely to serve as insurance in case Langeliers struggles or needs some veteran guidance. He signed a two-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta but required season-ending wrist surgery in May. He’ll earn $4.5MM in 2023 with a $4MM club option for 2024 with no buyout.

The one prospect who isn’t likely to help the big league club immediately is Salinas. He turns 22 in April and split the most recent season between Single-A and High-A. He posted a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts with a huge 37.6% strikeout rate but a 13.5% walk rate. Baseball America recently placed him #7 on their list of Atlanta prospects.

The Braves were facing a challenge in the NL East despite having won the division in five straight seasons. The Mets and Phillies have been been spending wildly to upgrade for the coming season. The Mets have added Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, José Quintana and David Robertson, in addition to re-signing Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. The Phillies have signed Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The Braves were going to face a challenge in keeping up with that pace since they were nearing the luxury tax. As is his wont, Anthopoulos has turned to the trade market to make his upgrades. The club still has a question mark at shortstop, with Dansby Swanson having departed for free agency. They could always bring him back though they reportedly haven’t been talking much this offseason. After this trade, the club’s CBT figure is at $229MM, per Roster Resource, just shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold for next year.

For the Brewers, they’ve parted with an outfield prospect they just acquired but have added an exciting young catcher, something they would be challenged to do in free agency with their payroll constraints. For the A’s, they have parted with yet another established major leaguer, adding to the list of quality players they’ve sent out the door. In exchange, they’ve brought in one veteran backstop and four young players that they hope can be a part of forming the next competitive core in Oakland.

Talkin’ Jake of Jomboy Media first reported that the Braves, Brewers and A’s were lining up on a deal, as well as the involvement of Contreras (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Murphy going to the Braves, as well as the involvement of Piña and the eventual final deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first mentioned Ruiz and Tarnok (Twitter links). Joel Sherman first mentioned Payamps and Yeager on Twitter. Kiley McDaniel first had Muller’s name on Twitter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) over the weekend that righties Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa look like the favorites for the fourth and fifth spots. Ynoa always seemed to have a leg up after posting a 4.05 ERA/3.62 SIERA in 18 appearances last season. Wright, on the other hand, made just two regular season starts in the majors. The 26-year-0ld had a nice showing at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he worked 137 frames of 3.02 ERA ball. A former top five pick and highly-regarded prospect, Wright hasn’t yet had a ton of MLB success, but his minor league production and the quality of his arsenal still offer reason for Atlanta brass to believe in him as a long-term option.

The Braves are scheduled to play every day from their April 7 opener through April 20. With that heavy workload to start the year, Toscano writes the club could lean on a six-man starting staff early on. If that bears out, rookie Spencer Strider — who climbed four minor league levels last season to reach the majors in September — could assume the final spot, Toscano writes, with lefties Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller also in that mix.

All those pitchers outside the Braves top three starters have minor league option years remaining, so any of that group could be sent back to Gwinnett throughout the season. They could also spill over into a multi-inning role out of the bullpen. Atlanta has one of the league’s strongest relief units on paper, but a key member has yet to pitch this spring.

Luke Jackson has been dealing with some forearm tightness, the team told reporters (including David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 30-year-old has been throwing on the side, so the Braves clearly aren’t concerned he’s facing a significant absence, but it’s not known whether he’ll have time to get into regular season game shape by next week. Jackson has been in the Atlanta bullpen for the past five years, but he had a particularly successful showing in 2021, pitching to a 1.98 ERA/3.75 SIERA in 63 2/3 frames.

While the Braves rotation looks much the same as it did last season, their position player shakeup was one of the stories of the offseason. Atlanta acquired Matt Olson and let Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos and the front office were no doubt aware that decision would be a divisive one among the fanbase, and Freeman himself suggested in the immediate aftermath he was taken aback by the Olson trade. At his introductory press conference with the Dodgers, Freeman suggested Braves brass wasn’t as communicative as he’d expected they’d be throughout his stint on the open market. He also seemed to dismiss Anthopoulos’ assertion the Olson trade was the most difficult move of his executive career.

Chatting with the Journal-Constitution’s Gabriel Burns over the weekend, Freeman walked back those comments and took a brighter tone. The five-time All-Star said he chatted with the Braves baseball ops head last week and apologized for the comments he’d made at his introductory presser. “It helped to hear his side of things,” Freeman told Burns. “I won’t divulge what we talked about. But you can imagine what we talked about in three hours. It was good for us to now be good again. Now, when we see each other, we can just hug. I asked him to come to LA (for the series in April). I don’t think he was going to come to the LA series when they came out. I said, ‘Please, I want to see you and give you a hug because we did so many good things together.’”

Regardless of whether the fences are mended, the Braves and Dodgers figure to have plenty of memorable clashes over the coming seasons. The pair met in last year’s NL Championship Series, and they again look to be two of the top teams in the Senior Circuit. FanGraphs’ projections indeed forecast Los Angeles and Atlanta as the NL’s top two clubs heading into the year.

Baseball Prospectus gave Muller solid rankings (60th in 2020, 62nd this year) in their last two preseason top-prospect listings, and MLB Pipeline lists Muller as the fifth-best prospect in Atlanta’s farm system.  A second-round pick in the 2016 draft, Muller posted solid numbers in his first four pro seasons and pitched at the Braves’ alternate training site in 2020, though he has hit some bumps in his first stint at Triple-A this year.

Muller has a 4.60 ERA through 31 1/3 frames for Triple-A Gwinnett, with a troublingly large number of homers (six) and walks (19) that undermines his 28.9% strikeout rate.  The home runs are a new issue for Muller, who gave up just 18 home runs total in his first 326 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s organization, though his control problems also began to creep up at Double-A in 2019.  MLB Pipeline’s scouting report cites Muller’s command as his chief issue, though also praises the 23-year-old’s ceiling as a potential four-pitch starter.  He already possesses a 65-grade fastball that sits in the high-90’s and a 55-grade curveball, and Muller has been working on improving his changeup and slider as well.

The Athletic’s David O’Brien (Twitter links) notes that Muller’s last three Triple-A outings have been very strong, which could explain why the Braves turned to Muller over Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, who have both have started games for the Braves this season.  Muller is slated for bullpen work for now, O’Brien writes, though it remains to be seen who will start in Davidson’s place on Sunday.

Mayfield, 30, has seen time with the ’Stros in each of the past two seasons but managed only a .170/.198/.283 batting line through 112 plate appearances at the big league level. It’s obviously a tiny sample of work, however, and Mayfield’s career .268/.325/.472 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons (1224 plate appearances) creates some more reason for optimism.

With the Astros, Mayfield  served as a right-handed-hitting backup at second base, shortstop and third base, grading well defensively at each position. He also still has minor league options remaining, so he could be a depth piece the Braves shuttle between the Majors and Triple-A Gwinnett in 2021 if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.

Muller, 23, was a second-round pick by Atlanta back in 2016. He’s long ranked among the organization’s more promising arms and has impressed with a 3.12 ERA and nearly a strikeout per frame in 140 2/3 Double-A innings. However, he’s also been critiqued for sub-par command, and that flaw was apparent in 2019 when he walked 68 batters, plunked another seven and rattled off 16 wild pitches in 111 2/3 frames.