February 27: The Nats made it official today, signing Finnegan with Stone Garrett designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

February 25: The Nationals are bringing back Kyle Finnegan, with Robert Murray of FanSided reporting that the two sides have agreed to a one-year contract. The Warner Sports Management client gets a $6MM guarantee, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Nats have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

Finnegan, 33, spent the past five years with the Nats. He made 291 appearances for the club in that time, allowing 3.56 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on 47.5% of balls in play. He also took over the closer’s job in that time. He earned 11 saves in both 2021 and 2022, then got that number to 28 in 2023 and 38 last year.

The Nats could have retained Finnegan for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $8.6MM, a bump from the $5.1MM he made in 2024. They somewhat surprisingly decided to walk away instead, non-tendering him back in November.

Though that move initially raised some eyebrows, there were some concerning numbers under the hood. His ERA has held fairly steady recently but his strikeout rate has been ticking down. He struck out 26.1% of batters faced in 2022, but that number fell to the 22% range in each of the past two seasons. His 2024 campaign was also fairly lopsided. He had a 2.45 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate in the first half but a 5.79 ERA and 16.4% strikeout rate in the second.

He has also been susceptible to some loud contact in his career, especially lately. His 91.3 mile per hour exit velocity last year was considered by Statcast to be in the first percentile of qualified pitchers. His 48.1% hard hit rate was in the second percentile. In 2023, he allowed a 92.2 mph average exit velo (first percentile) and 47.5% hard hit rate (fourth percentile).

In hindsight, the decision not to tender him a contract looks like a wise one for the Nats. Though the righty received interest from some other clubs this winter, the Nats stayed in contact with Finnegan and were able to bring him back while saving a few million bucks relative to his projected price range.

The Nats have been rebuilding for the past few years and their offseason has mostly been about adding solid short-term veterans to their young core. Those vets can stabilize the roster and will ideally turn themselves into deadline trade chips if Washington isn’t contending in July.

In the bullpen, they have signed Jorge López and Lucas Sims to one-year deals, with Finnegan now joining them in that category. Derek Law is back for his final season of club control, retained via arbitration. Colin Poche is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is just about two months shy of six years of big league service time. If he’s added to the roster, the Nats would have five experienced bullpen arms slated for free agency after the season, making them logical summer trade candidates.

In the interim, there will be opportunities for younger arms to pitch around those guys. Jose A. Ferrer has just 66 big league innings but has posted huge ground ball rates in that time. Rule 5 pick Evan Reifert has to hold a spot or else be offered back to the Rays. Perhaps one of the club’s many starting candidates will end up in the bullpen as a long reliever. Eduardo Salazar, Zach Brzykcy and Orlando Ribalta are also on the 40-man but each has less than a year of big league service and can be optioned to the minors.

That’s a price the Nats were unwilling to pay. Washington has seemingly had interest in bringing Finnegan back at a lesser number. The sides reportedly had some conversations before the non-tender. General manager Mike Rizzo told reporters on Thursday that the Nats have “been talking to Finnegan throughout the offseason” about a potential reunion (link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). There’s evidently still a financial gap. Rizzo declined to specify what kind of contract has been discussed beyond noting that “it takes two to tango.”

Finnegan has topped 60 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in four consecutive seasons. He has been Dave Martinez’s primary closer for most of that time, recording 88 career saves. That includes a career-high 38 saves in 43 attempts last year. Only Ryan Helsley and Emmanuel Clase locked down more games. Finnegan concluded the season with a 3.68 earned run average across 63 2/3 innings.

Despite the gaudy save total, Finnegan’s peripherals were about average. He struck out 22.1% of opponents against an 8.9% walk rate. His 10.8% swinging strike percentage was a bit below the 11.6% league mark for relievers. That combined with a rough second half to lead the Nationals to non-tender him. Finnegan carried a 2.45 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. He lost nearly 10 percentage points off the strikeout rate while allowing 5.79 earned runs per nine after that.

That didn’t come with any kind of velocity drop. The 33-year-old averaged 97 MPH on his fastball in each month of the season. Opponents make a lot of hard contact against the heater, though, and they had increasing success differentiating the pitch from his splitter as the year progressed.

The Nats haven’t done much to address the bullpen. In addition to cutting Finnegan, they traded Robert Garcia to Texas for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. They added Jorge López on a $3MM free agent deal. Japanese southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara could pitch in long relief, while Rule 5 pick Evan Reifert is trying to hold a middle relief job. Washington could certainly use more stability in a late-innings mix led by López, Jose A. Ferrer and Derek Law. Righty David Robertson is the top unsigned reliever, while Andrew Chafin and Phil Maton are among the next tier.

Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.

The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.

Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.

According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.

Finnegan, 33, was non-tendered by the Nationals back in November. While his end-of-year numbers look sharp — 38 saves, 3.68 ERA — Finnegan had a brutal finish to the year and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8.6MM salary in what would’ve been his final year of club control before free agency. That was more than the Nationals were willing to pay at the time. Presumably, other clubs also balked at the price. Teams generally shop players around the trade market before cutting them loose via non-tender, and the Nats surely did that due diligence with a player as prominent as Finnegan has been for them.

As deep into the season as July 21, Finnegan boasted a 2.32 earned run average with a 26% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He was thriving in high-leverage spots, missing bats and limiting walks while piling up saves in Davey Martinez’s bullpen. It was a strong enough showing for Finnegan to deservingly make the first All-Star team of his career.

The subsequent 21 appearances, however, were a disaster. Finnegan surrendered runs in nine of those outings, yielding an ugly 6.43 ERA along the way. He was hampered by a .411 average on balls in play, but his struggles were attributable to far more than just a simple downturn in batted-ball luck; Finnegan’s strikeout rate plummeted to 15.7% over that stretch, while his walk rate inflated to 9.8%. He logged an 11.8% swinging-strike rate through July 21 but only a 9.1% clip from that point forth. His opponents’ contact rate jumped from 77.6% to 81.9%. In particular, their rate of contact on pitches off the plate soared. Finnegan’s velocity held strong, averaging 97.2 mph in both samples, but his command was clearly not as sharp in the season’s final two-plus months.

Finnegan was connected to the Cubs back in December. Chicago just finished runner-up to the Dodgers in bidding for the previously mentioned Scott and is still seeking bullpen upgrades. Others known to be poking around the relief market at the moment (but not necessarily targeting Finnegan, specifically) include the Reds, Yankees, D-backs, Mets and Braves — to name just a few. Most clubs this time of year feel there’s still room to add to their bullpen, though not every team has the remaining financial flexibility to do so on a reliever of some note, like Finnegan.

A one-year deal a bit shy of Finnegan’s projected arb salary feels feasible. It’s also at least plausible that he could ink a two-year pact at a lesser annual value, allowing him to surpass the total of his projected arbitration salary. Non-tendered players rarely strike multi-year deals, but it’s happened before, and Finnegan was a higher-profile cut than most.

Minter, 31, is one of the winter’s more interesting free agent relievers. The southpaw broke out with the Braves during the 2020 season and has been one of the better lefty relief arms in baseball since then with a 2.85 ERA and a matching 2.84 FIP in 243 innings over the past half-decade. In that time, he’s struck out 30.1% of his opponents while walking 7.8%. Among lefty relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season, Minter’s 3.05 SIERA ranks third in the majors behind only Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers.

That track record would seemingly be enough to line him up for one of the more lucrative relief contracts of the offseason, but Minter’s free agency is complicated by a difficult platform season. In 2024, Minter managed a solid 2.62 ERA but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 26.1% while his FIP ballooned up to 4.45 due primarily to an increase in home runs allowed. More problematic for Minter than those steps backward in peripherals, however, was the season-ending hip surgery Minter underwent back in August. Recent reporting has indicated that it’s not yet clear whether Minter will be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, a reality that could cast a shadow over his free agency if interested teams believe he’s ticketed for a substantial early-season absence.

As for Finnegan, the 33-year-old has spent all five seasons of his big league career with the Nationals but was non-tendered by the club last month. After impressing in his 2020 rookie campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 25 innings, Finnegan stood as the club’s primary closer throughout their recent rebuild. He racked up 88 saves over the next four seasons, pitching to a 3.62 ERA that was 13% better than league average in 265 2/3 innings of work during that time despite a somewhat lackluster 4.28 FIP.

Despite his gaudy save totals, which includes a 38-for-43 record (88.4% conversion rate) in save situations this past season, Finnegan’s numbers cast him as more of a middle reliever than a true closer. He’s struck out just 23.3% of opponents over the last four years while walking 9.3%, and while his 47.5% career groundball rate is certainly above average it’s not exactly exceptional as Finnegan ranks just 22nd among relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season by the metric. In that same timeframe, Finnegan’s 3.86 SIERA is well below average for a reliever and ranks just 55th among 70 qualifying relievers.

With that being said, Finnegan’s somewhat middling numbers throughout his career could make him relatively affordable on the open market, and the Cubs’ hesitance in recent years to commit to pricey guarantees for relievers could lead them to be intrigued by the upside offered by a hurler who averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball last year and offers late-inning experience that could benefit a mostly young bullpen that currently features Porter Hodge as its top high leverage option after the righty posted a dominant rookie campaign in 2024. Minter, by contrast, figures to a land a healthier guarantee so long as his market isn’t depressed by the health question marks surrounding him. MLBTR predicted the lefty to land a two-year, $16MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked 34th.

Harper’s first full season as a first baseman was a success, as he posted strong defensive numbers and kept up his usual high standards at the plate.  These results have understandably left all parties satisfied with just keeping Harper at the cold corner, though Harper has expressed an openness to playing the outfield again and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility (“I can’t say that we’d never do it, but it’s not something that we are thinking of or wanting to do“) when discussing the subject at the GM Meetings last month.

If Harper did return to his old spot in right field, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas would likely become the Phillies’ new center field platoon, and Nick Castellanos would presumably be shifted over to left field.  This arrangement wouldn’t exactly make for the strongest defensive outfield, even if the Phillies tried to balance out the situation by adding a stronger defender at first base.  Trading Castellanos to clear space in the outfield might be the ideal outcome, though that is obviously easier said than done considering the two years and $40MM remaining on the veteran’s contract.

More from the NL East…

• Before the Nationals parted ways with Kyle Finnegan, the two parties at least had some talks about a new contract prior to the non-tender deadline, but the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden hears from a source that “the sides were not close to making a deal to avoid arbitration.”  Finnegan was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in his final year of arb eligibility, as traditional counting stats like saves (Finnegan had 28 saves in 2023 and 38 saves in 2024) tend to boost a reliever’s arbitration salaries by a significant degree, regardless of Finnegan’s otherwise rather shaky secondary metrics.  It seems as though the Nationals would’ve been open to retaining the closer at a lower number, but ultimately weren’t comfortable retaining Finnegan and possibly facing a higher salary via arbitration hearing if the Nats couldn’t have potentially traded Finnegan at some later date this offseason.
• Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023, and after over a year of recovery and rehab, the Marlins ace appears to be making good progress towards a return.  In a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (link to X), manager Clayton McCullough said he met with Alcantara within the last week and “he looked great, he sounded great, felt like he was really right on track at this point….All signs point to things looking very positive for the start of the season.”  The winner of the 2022 NL Cy Young Award, Alcantara threw more innings than any other pitcher in baseball over the 2019-2022 seasons as the anchor of the Marlins’ pitching staff, before that workload seemingly caught up to him late in the 2023 campaign.  Since Alcantara is owed at least $36MM over the last two years of his contract, some trade buzz will be inevitable if he looks like his old self at the start of 2025, though the rebuilding Marlins already told Alcantara last summer that they likely weren’t trading him this offseason.

The best player to be non-tendered last winter was right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who served as the co-ace of the Brewers rotation alongside Corbin Burnes for years but wound up missing the entire 2024 season as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery. Kevin Gausman stands out as another notable hurler who’s been non-tendered in recent memory, and the veteran right-hander has gone on to have a fabulous career after breaking out at the age of 29. Even if no player from this crop of arms reaches the heights Gausman has, finding an impactful reliever or even a quality starter in the non-tender pile is hardly unheard of. Just this past year, both Spencer Turnbull and Tim Hill went from non-tendered in November to pitching for playoff contenders in 2024. Could anyone from this year’s group of non-tenders follow in their footsteps? Without further ado, let’s take a look at five pitchers who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.

Kyle Finnegan (33)

Finnegan’s non-tender came as something of a shock, as the right-hander actually made his first career All-Star appearance this year. The righty has been a consistent, stable presence at the back of the Nationals’ bullpen throughout the rebuild, pitching to a 3.56 ERA (116 ERA+) overall with a 4.24 FIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate in his 290 1/3 innings of work. Finnegan’s spent much of his time with the club in the closer role as well, and has racked up 88 career saves in 109 opportunities for a conversion rate of 81%. Finnegan’s overall performance this year was roughly in line with his career norms, as he posted a 3.68 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 63 2/3 innings of work while racking up 38 saves in 43 opportunities this year.

Those frequent save opportunities over the years have increased Finnegan’s price tag in arbitration, and he was due to make $8.6MM in his final trip through the process this winter according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Aside from the high price tag, one other red flag that may have given the Nationals pause regarding their closer was how he wore down throughout the year. After posting an excellent 2.45 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 40 1/3 innings prior to the All-Star break, Finnegan’s final 24 appearances down the stretch saw him surrender a 5.79 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a strikeout rate of just 16.4%. Despite that potential sign of trouble, though, Finnegan offers late-inning experience, consistent results, and an upper-90s fastball that should attract plenty of attention this winter.

Hoby Milner (34)

Left-handed relief options are always in demand, and Milner figures to receive attention on the free agent market as a southpaw with previous success in the majors if nothing else, even after the Brewers opted to non-tender him rather than pay his projected salary of $2.7MM for the 2025 season. That’s certainly a defensible decision given Milwaukee’s tight budget and Milner’s poor results this year. In 64 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers this year, Milner surrendered an ugly 4.73 ERA that was 11% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. With a heater that fails to break 90 mph, Milner hardly garners attention for his stuff, as well.

That’s not to say he couldn’t be a valuable contributor to a club’s bullpen, however. Rough as Milner’s 2024 campaign was, the underlying numbers were actually far kinder to the southpaw: He struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents while walking just 5.2%, and virtually every advanced metric was extremely bullish on the lefty’s performance this year as he posted a 3.14 FIP, a 3.08 SIERA, and a 3.15 in both xERA and xFIP. Milner also enjoyed the highest groundball rate of his career (51.9%), and may have been victimized by a shockingly low strand rate of just 58.1%. Looking at the three years Milner spent as a fixture of the Milwaukee bullpen from 2022 to 2024 paints the picture of a steady left-handed reliever who could improve plenty of bullpens around the league: in 193 2/3 innings during that time, he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.14 FIP overall. That track record should garner major league offers this winter, even if his lackluster season this past year may limit his earning potential.

Cal Quantrill (30)

Quantrill lands on this list by virtue of being the best bet among all non-tender candidates to make 30 big league starts in 2025. The right-hander found himself moved out of his previous organization in advance of the non-tender deadline for the second consecutive winter last week. After being designated for assignment by the Guardians in the days leading up to the deadline last year, the Rockies swung a trade to add him to their rotation. That experiment went fairly well, as Quantrill pitched to a solid if unspectacular 4.98 ERA (93 ERA+) with a 5.32 FIP. Ugly as those numbers look on paper, given the realities of pitching in Coors Field they’re generally consistent with Quantrill’s history as a roughly league average fifth starter.

The right-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign during the 2020 season that was split between Cleveland and San Diego, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings while working out of the bullpen. He was used as a swing man in Cleveland the following year, and continued to dominate as he posted a 2.89 ERA (despite a pedestrian 4.07 FIP) in 149 2/3 innings of work in 2021. From 2022 onwards, he settled in as a permanent fixture of the rotation and has been a consistently average back-of-the-rotation arm with a 4.35 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.68 FIP in 80 starts. Averaging more than 26 starts per year with a roughly league average ERA should be enough to earn Quantrill a look from a rotation-needy team this year, though it’s also possible a team could have interest in seeing if he can post stronger numbers out of the bullpen like he did earlier in his career.

Jordan Romano (32)

Romano was perhaps the non-tendered that garnered the most attention in the aftermath of last week’s non-tender deadline. A two-time All-Star, Romano has been the Blue Jays’ closer throughout the majority of their recent competitive window. From 2020 to 2023, the right-hander spun an incredible 2.29 ERA in 200 2/3 innings of work with a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 3.13 FIP. Among relievers with at least 160 innings of work during that time, Romano ranked third by ERA behind only Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase. Unfortunately, the wheels came off completely for the righty in 2024 as he was shelled for 10 runs in 13 2/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery that wound up ending his season.

Terrible as Romano’s 2024 campaign was, it’s hard to imagine him not generating significant interest this winter. The right-hander was projected for a $7.75MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this winter, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him land a similar deal in free agency if multiple clubs see him as a potential buy-low solution in the ninth inning given his strong numbers and 105 career saves in 113 chances (89% conversation rate). Romano’s market naturally still figures to be hampered at least to some extent by not just his struggles in 2024 but also questions surrounding his health. While he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training and have a normal offseason following his surgery this summer, some level of trepidation from clubs is to be expected after any elbow procedure.

Patrick Sandoval (28)

Sandoval stands as both the youngest player on this list and the one most likely to find success as a mid-rotation starter or better in the big leagues at some point in the future. The left-hander was traded from the Astros to the Angels as the return for catcher Martin Maldonado back in 2018, and the southpaw was in the big leagues the following year. While it took some time for Sandoval to get settled into the majors, he found success in a half season of work out of the rotation in 2021 and managed to build upon that with a breakout season the following year. In 2022, Sandoval pitched to an excellent 2.91 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in 148 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 23.7% of opponents and combined that with an excellent 47.4% grounder rate.

Unfortunately, Sandoval’s performance has slipped since then. 2023 was a step backwards for the lefty, as he posted a solid but relatively pedestrian 4.11 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.18 FIP in 144 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped to just 19.3% that year, while his walk rate skyrocketed to 11.3%. Things took a turn for the worse this year, as he was shelled to the tune of a 5.08 ERA across 16 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. That will leave him out of action until at least the second half of 2025, and that layoff combined with Sandoval’s recent lackluster performance made the Halos’ decision to part ways with him somewhat unsurprising. Even so, with Sandoval not scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2026 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club snap the lefty up on a two-year deal and be glad he did if he can revert to something closer to his 2022 form once he’s back on the mound.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Angels having an agreement in place with Yusei Kikuchi (2:00)
• The Royals trading Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer (10:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• For the Juan Soto sweepstakes, will agent Scott Boras just ask each club for its best offer? Or tell each club what others are offering to try to spur a bidding war? (20:45)
• The Athletics are reportedly trying to have a $100MM payroll in 2025. Please come up with a plan to help them spend that money. (25:05)
• It seems that third base is going to shape the destiny of the 2025 Mariners. How soon will they get over themselves and sign Alex Bregman or another top free agent? (29:40)
• What do you think of the Nationals’ decision to non-tender Kyle Finnegan? (34:15)
• What do you make of the recent reports that the Tigers and Tarik Skubal discussed an extension but didn’t get close? (38:20)

Check out our past episodes!

• The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here
• Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
• Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.

Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.

Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.

Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.

None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.

Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.

Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.

Onto the transactions…

• The Braves non-tendered outfielder Ramón Laureano, left-hander Ray Kerr, as well as right-handers Griffin Canning, Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas, which you can read more about here.
• The Brewers parted ways with lefty reliever Hoby Milner, who’d been projected at $2.7MM for his final arbitration season. The typically reliable southpaw was tagged for a 4.73 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
• The Cardinals have non-tendered right-hander Adam Kloffenstein, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link). The righty only just made his major league debut in 2024 and was not yet arb-eligible. He immediately becomes a free agent without being exposed to waivers.
• The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Nick Madrigal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). Madrigal has hit .251/.304/.312 for a 76 wRC+ over the last three seasons with the Cubs and was projected for a $1.9MM salary next year. Chicago also announced they non-tendered outfielder Mike Tauchman, which comes as a bit of a surprise after he reached base at a .357 clip this year. Patrick Wisdom, Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis and Trey Wingenter — all of whom were designated for assignment earlier this week — were also dropped.
• The Diamondbacks non-tendered lefty reliever Brandon Hughes, per a club announcement. The 28-year-old southpaw allowed 16 runs over 17 2/3 big league innings this year. He wasn’t eligible for arbitration but would’ve occupied a 40-man roster spot if offered a contract.
• The Dodgers are non-tendering right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. and left-hander Zach Logue, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Both pitchers are still in their pre-arbitration years, so this was more about the Dodgers sending them to free agency without exposing them to waivers, as opposed to cost cutting. Perhaps the club will look to re-sign them on minor league deals.
• The Giants only made two non-tenders, parting with lefty Ethan Small and righty Kai-Wei Teng. Teng had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Small, who was in his pre-arbitration years, spent the season in the minors or on the injured list.
• The Marlins had zero non-tenders. They offered contracts to everyone on the 40-man roster.
• The Mets dropped a trio of players from the 40-man roster: relievers Grant Hartwig and Alex Young and outfield prospect Alex Ramirez. Young was the only member of that group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The southpaw pitched well in a depth role, but the Mets didn’t want to keep him around at a $1.4MM projection. Hartwig made four appearances this year, while the 21-year-old Ramirez (a former top prospect) had a .210/.291/.299 showing in Double-A.
• The Nationals announced that they have non-tendered right-hander Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, which you can read more about here.
• The Padres dropped four players from the roster: righties Luis Patino and Logan Gillaspie, outfielder Bryce Johnson and infielder Mason McCoy. Patino, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, was the only member of the group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The other three cuts are simply about roster maintenance. The Padres could try to bring anyone from that group back on minor league deals.
• The Phillies will not be tendering a contract to outfielder Austin Hays, which MLBTR covered earlier today.
• The Pirates are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com (Bluesky link). They are also non-tendering right-hander Hunter Stratton, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Joe was projected for a salary of $3.2MM next year and De La Cruz $4MM. Stratton had not yet qualified for arbitration. Joe has been around league average at the plate in his career but doing more damage against lefties. De La Cruz has hit .253/.297/.407 in his career for a wRC+ of 90. Startton had a 3.58 ERA this year but his season was ended by knee surgery, giving him an uncertain path forward.
• The Reds have non-tendered right-hander Ian Gibaut, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Bluesky link). The righty was projected for a salary of $800K. He spent the vast majority of 2024 on the injured list due to arm trouble and only made two appearances on the season.
• The Rockies moved on from starter Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers, which MLBTR covered here.

11:49am: The trade deadline is just a few hours away now but teams are still scouring the market for upgrades. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X, the Yankees have infielders Yandy Díaz and Luis Rengifo on their radar, as well as relievers Tanner Scott, Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan and Lucas Erceg. He adds that they could also look to add a starting pitching but might not meet the asking prices.

Some of those guys have already been connected to the Yankees in rumors. The connections with Rengifo, Finnegan and Erceg are new but also in line with their previously-reported pursuits. Even after adding Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the roster, they have seemingly still been looking for more infield help, which Rengifo could certainly help with.

The 27-year-old is in his third straight above-average offensive season. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, he’s hit .272/.323/.433 for a wRC+ of 110. He’s also stolen 35 bases in that time while bouncing to all three outfield spots and three infield positions to the left of first base. He’s not considered a strong defender at any one position but the ability to move all around is certainly attractive.

The Yanks are still trying to figure out their best alignment at the moment. Chisholm’s first game as a Yankee was in center field, where he has been spending most of his time in recent years. But then the Yanks moved him to third base last night, a position he had never played before. Now that Giancarlo Stanton is back and in the designated hitter slot, Aaron Judge moved to center field, flanked by Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. Acquiring another infielder could result in Chisholm moving to second and bumping out Gleyber Torres, or perhaps Verdugo will get nudged out of the outfield mix.

Rengifo is making a modest $4.4MM this year, with roughly $1.5MM left to be paid out. That’s likely attractive to the Yankees as they are slated to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and well above the top tier, meaning they will pay a 110% tax on anything they add to the ledger. He can also be retained via arbitration for 2025 and could perhaps slide into next year’s second base job with Torres slated for free agency after the current season. Verdugo is also an impending free agent, so perhaps Chisholm could be in the outfield with Rengifo on the infield. There’s also the looming Soto free agency to consider, though the Yanks are expected to be aggressive in trying to re-sign him. Rengifo has also been connected to clubs such as the Red Sox, Dodgers and Royals in recent weeks.

The extra year of control means that the Angels don’t have to move on from Rengifo but there would be logic in doing so as they haven’t been meaningfully competitive for quite some time. Now that Shohei Ohtani is gone and Mike Trout is having annual trouble staying on the field, the odds of them turning things around between now and the end of 2025 seem long.

Bullpen adds are generally on the radar of all contending teams and the Yanks are surely exploring all options there. Finnegan has been the Nationals’ closer for quite some time but is nearing the end of his window of club control, with one year remaining after this one. The Nats have already traded Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas, two players that were also controllable through 2025, and Finnegan seems likely to move today as well.

He has a career 3.52 earned run average in 272 appearances. He has struck out 23.9% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.4% rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% clip. That includes racking up 28 saves this year with a 3.48 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s making $5.1MM this year.

Erceg can still be retained by the Athletics for five seasons beyond this one, but he’s a late bloomer who is now 29 years old despite his limited experience, which could tempt them to sell high. He has a 3.68 ERA this year, 26.3% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. The fact that he’s pre-arbitration and therefore making a modest salary is surely appealing to the Yankees but the cost might be high. Even rental relievers are netting big returns at this year’s deadline so getting Erceg might take an uncomfortable haul.

With starting pitching a particular need, Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Dodgers target, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Angels infielder Luis Rengifo have also received consideration, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, since the Dodgers are trying to shore up both their bullpen and the infield.

Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season, he is one of the more obvious rental candidates available considering that the Tigers (despite some good recent play) are still only 52-54 and more on the outskirts of the AL wild card race.  As noted by both Petzold and Nightengale, Detroit’s asking price for Flaherty is both high and somewhat straight-forward — teams will have to offer the Tigers something they deem more valuable than the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive this winter if Flaherty rejects the team’s inevitable qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

The Dodgers’ rotation needs have somewhat lessened now that Tyler Glasnow is back from the injured list and Clayton Kershaw has made his season debut, but L.A. still has a whopping nine pitchers on the IL.  Walker Buehler is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, though Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s timetable is still unclear, and Yamamoto will be out until late August at the earliest as he recovers from a triceps injury.  Los Angeles did feel comfortable enough in its pitching depth to deal James Paxton to the Red Sox, but Flaherty is more of a front-of-the-rotation type that could conceivably start a playoff game.

Likewise, Finnegan could slot right into what has become something of a fluid late-game mix.  Evan Phillips is still ostensibly the Dodgers’ top choice as closer, though his recent struggles have brought Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen into the picture as save candidates.  Manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Phillips could be deployed in any high-leverage situation late in games rather than specifically just the ninth inning, which opens the door for L.A. to solidify things by landing another experienced closer like Finnegan.

Since Finnegan is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he’d also be able to help Los Angeles next season in addition to this year’s playoff run.  This extra year of control means that the Nationals would get an even nicer return by moving him at the deadline, though D.C. might consider waiting until the offseason to gauge offers if nobody steps up with an acceptable enough trade package by Tuesday.  The Nats already got a good score in moving Hunter Harvey to the Royals earlier this month, and between the Harvey deal and yesterday’s trade of Jesse Winker to the Mets, Washington is clearly in sell mode.

The infield targets all come with varying degrees of control beyond just the 2024 season.  Rengifo is arb-controlled through 2025, Paredes is arb-controlled through 2027 as a Super Two player, and Hoerner is signed through 2026 via the three-year, $35MM deal he inked prior to the 2023 season.  That extension started this year, so Hoerner is owed roughly $3.9MM in salary for the rest of 2024, as well as $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026.

Sticking with Hoerner, that is a decent-sized price tag for a Dodgers team already far over the highest tier of luxury tax penalization.  In terms of both the actual salary and the added tax hit, Hoerner’s dollar value would come at more than double the size of his contract, as the Dodgers have an additional repeater penalty for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous three seasons.  This cost could be reduced if Los Angeles sent another contract to Chicago in return, or the Cubs could absorb more of Hoerner’s deal if the Dodgers improved the value of the trade package.

The latter scenario could involve better prospects, or perhaps more win-now types of players for a Cubs team that is still aiming to contend in 2025, even if 2024 is looking like a wash.  Moving a reliable everyday player like Hoerner would be a bold move for the Cubs, yet for a team that has a good amount of middle infield depth, trading Hoerner could allow Chicago to upgrade in other areas.

A defensive standout at either middle infield position, Hoerner could give the Dodgers an answer to their shortstop woes, as both Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas are injured.  Installing Hoerner at short would allow Betts to play second base (or even move back to the outfield) when he is healthy, and Rojas and Gavin Lux would then assume depth roles.  With Hoerner locked up through 2026, the Dodgers could then explore returning Betts back to right field altogether, or perhaps at least limit him to second base when he does get infield work.

Rengifo is a utility player who can play all over the diamond, though he doesn’t offer strong glovework at any position.  The switch-hitter does bring more offense than Hoerner, and Rengifo has returned in seemingly good health after a three-week absence due to wrist inflammation.  Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a Rengifo trade for the Dodgers would be the fact that the two L.A. teams are infrequent trade partners.  Ironically, Rengifo was part of an infamously scuttled trade between the Angels and Dodgers in February 2020, which reportedly left Halos owner Arte Moreno upset at the idea of ever again doing business with his local rivals.

Conversely, the Rays and Dodgers have lined up on several trades over the years, including the blockbuster deal that sent Glasnow to Los Angeles just this past offseason.  This could help the Dodgers in working out a Paredes trade, who would likely play third base with Max Muncy’s recovery from an oblique strain still up in the air.  Since Muncy is signed through at least 2025 and Paredes would be a longer-term addition, one of the two could likely be moved to second base in 2025, which also helps the Dodgers’ middle infield picture to some extent.  The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are among the other teams who have been linked to Paredes in recent rumors, though intriguingly, Nightengale writes that the Yankees and Dodgers are in a “bidding war” over the All-Star infielder.

They’re obviously positioned as buyers and should at least make some additions around the margins. They’ve been seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder for the last couple weeks. The bullpen has fallen on hard times this month, making that another obvious area for potential upgrade.

One of Philadelphia’s division rivals would make for a natural trade partner. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that the Phils have expressed interest in Nationals’ outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan. Washington could market both players, each of whom is under arbitration control for one more season. The Nats are considering offers on players they control for this season and next. They already dealt one such player, setup man Hunter Harvey, to the Royals in one of the more impactful moves in what has been a slow-moving deadline season.

Thomas is a right-handed hitter who does the vast majority of his damage in favorable platoon situations. He is destroying lefties at a .329/.414/.518 clip over 99 plate appearances this season. While a half-season platoon split is an extremely small sample, Thomas has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He’s a .307/.369/.520 hitter against southpaws. Thomas has produced below-average numbers versus righties. That has again been the case this year, as he’s hitting .211/.269/.347 without the platoon advantage.

The Nats have maintained they view Thomas as more than a short-side platoon bat. He has been in the starting lineup for 73 of the team’s 102 games. That includes a couple starts in center field, but Thomas is best served in a corner. He’s a middling defender even in right field.

Thomas isn’t the answer if the Phils are looking to upgrade over Johan Rojas in center field. Philadelphia would like a lefty-hitting complement for Brandon Marsh in left. Marsh has been an above-average bat (.274/.350/.448) against righties over his career. He hasn’t done anything against left-handers, striking out more than 40% of the time en route to a .211/.268/.289 slash.

Gelb writes that the Phillies aren’t exclusively looking at right-handed hitters in their outfield search. They could upgrade on either Rojas or Nick Castellanos in right if they landed an everyday player. A Thomas-Marsh platoon in left would yield excellent results, although it remains to be seen if the Phils are willing to meet Washington’s asking price to immediately curtail Thomas’ playing time. The 28-year-old outfielder is playing on a $5.45MM salary.

Finnegan is a more valuable trade asset. He was a first-time All-Star this summer after a few seasons of quietly strong work at the back of the Washington ’pen. Finnegan has worked as their closer for most of the past four years. After three straight seasons allowing between three and four earned runs per nine, he carries a 2.32 mark over 42 2/3 frames. Finnegan is 28 of 32 in save chances and has solid peripherals.

The righty has fanned 26% of batters faced against an 8.3% walk percentage. He’s sitting north of 97 MPH with his fastball and is getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip. Finnegan’s stuff is probably a tick below that of the top handful of relievers in the game, but he’s a consistently effective presence with ample ninth inning experience.

Philadelphia’s closing situation has been in flux with José Alvarado scuffling lately. Gregory Soto took the ninth in a tied game today against Minnesota. He hit a batter and allowed a walk-off single after a sacrifice bunt. Soto has been prone to bouts of wildness throughout his career, making him an imperfect fit for the ninth. Finnegan, who is making $5.1MM, has been a much more consistent strike-thrower.

Thomas and Finnegan may be obvious fits for the Phillies’ needs, but they’re surely two of many players the front office is considering. Acquiring either player (or both, in a package deal) could be complicated by the difficulty of trading within the division. Detroit’s Mark Canha, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and the Angels’ Kevin Pillar are among other righty-hitting outfielders who’d make sense as speculative targets. (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tied the Phils to Rooker earlier this month.) There are no shortage of relievers who’ll move in the next few days, with Miami’s Tanner Scott and the Halos’ Carlos Estévez clear candidates as rental closers on bad teams.

One area which is evidently not a priority: the rotation. Gelb writes that the Phils are not emphasizing the starting staff and remain reluctant to part with their top prospects. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that the Phils were discussing Garrett Crochet and Jack Flaherty. Philadelphia already has a strong starting five, so it’d be very surprising to see them beat offers by other teams that much more desperately need rotation help for those top-of-the-market starters.

The topic of the Harvey deal, which occurred in spite of the right-hander being under team control for the 2025 season, led naturally to questions regarding the status of outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, both of whom are also under control for one season after 2024. When asked the availability of the pair, Rizzo confirmed that both are available, though he emphasized that the extra year of control means he isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either player. When discussing Thomas, Rizzo said that because the club has him under control beyond the 2024 campaign, “we’re going to do a deal that we’re comfortable with. And if we don’t, we won’t do a deal.” He went on to say that he viewed Finnegan “The same way, exactly” and that the club was “not going to get rid of [Finnegan] easy.”

While it’s not entirely clear what the Nationals’ current asking price is for either Thomas or Finnegan, it’s hardly a surprise that the club’s GM is indicating that he won’t be dealing either player unless his price is met. Thomas, 29 next month, has been a steady regular for the Nationals throughout their rebuild with a .256/.317/.438 slash line (106 wRC+) since first joining the club partway through the 2021 season. He enjoyed something of a breakout season last year, slugging 28 home runs while swiping 20 bases and hitting a solid .268/.315/.468 in 156 games for the Nats. Thomas hasn’t hit for quite as much power in 2024 but has been an even more prolific base stealer, swiping 24 bags in just 306 trips to the plate so far this year. In a market without many quality hitters who are obviously available, it’s easy to imagine Thomas getting interest from clubs looking for help in the outfield such as the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

As for Finnegan, the 32-year-old is in the midst of a career year in his fourth season as the Nationals’ closer. In 40 2/3 innings of work this year, the righty has already racked up 26 saves while pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA and striking out a solid 25.8% of batters faced. Home runs have been an issue for Finnegan in his career as he’s allowed 15.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard, including 16.7% this year. That’s left him with a somewhat pedestrian 4.05 FIP, but his lengthy track record as a quality high-leverage relief arm with Washington (where he’s posted a career 3.37 ERA in 267 1/3 innings of work) should nonetheless make him among the most attractive relief arms available for teams in need for help in the late innings.

In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.

The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.

The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.

Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.

Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.

Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.

Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.

That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.

If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.

Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.

Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.

That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.

Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.

Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.

Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.

One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.