Kansas City presumably always intended for Bubic’s relief role to be a short-term measure to avoid placing too much stress on his arm shortly after surgery. The southpaw’s excellent performance in short stints could’ve at least made it tempting to keep him there. Bubic was dominant over 27 relief outings, turning in a 2.67 earned run average across 30 1/3 innings. He struck out 32.2% of opponents against a minuscule 4.1% walk rate. Bubic got whiffs on nearly 15% of his offerings, well above the 11.6% league average for relievers.

That’s a relatively small sample, but Bubic was arguably K.C.’s best setup option in front of closer Lucas Erceg. The bullpen remains a concern. Chris Stratton struggled in the first season of his two-year free agent deal, while deadline pickup Hunter Harvey barely pitched for K.C. because of back issues. John Schreiber and Sam Long had solid seasons, but neither profiles as a lockdown setup man. Former top prospect Daniel Lynch IV could be well-suited to a bullpen move. He pitched well in 13 relief outings, though he spent the majority of the season as rotation depth at Triple-A Omaha.

Kansas City’s rotation is more established. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha form an excellent front three. After trading Brady Singer for Jonathan India, Kansas City has some combination of Bubic, Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright (who is returning after losing the ’24 season to shoulder surgery) to fill out the back of the staff. All three still have a minor league option. Bubic should be on the MLB roster in some capacity, seemingly as a starter, but either of Marsh or Wright could begin the year in Omaha if everyone is healthy coming out of camp.

While Bubic was excellent in relief, his track record as a starter is less impressive. The Stanford product has a career 4.99 ERA with a middling 20.1% strikeout rate over 297 2/3 innings out of the rotation. It’s possible he was about to turn a corner before the surgery. Bubic made a trio of starts in April 2023. He struck out 16 batters in as many innings while working to a 3.94 ERA. He had a 14.7% swinging strike rate — essentially matching this past season’s relief work — in those three appearances. If that was the sign of an impending breakout, it was put on hold when Bubic’s elbow blew out.

He’ll get another opportunity to see if he can maintain that newfound swing-and-miss as a starter. The Athletic writes that the Royals could limit his innings count to 140-150 next season to avoid overworking him. That’s not far below the workload expected of most modern starters, especially those who occupy mid-rotation roles, so it doesn’t seem as if he’ll be too restricted. Sammon, Woo and Rosenthal suggest that K.C. could look to add a swingman to strengthen their depth, though that’s not as pressing as their goal of adding an impact hitter on the trade market.

Bohm, 28, was the No. 3 overall pick back in 2018 and has settled in as a regular at third base in Philadelphia over the past four-plus seasons. He’s coming off an uneven 2024 season in which he was one of the game’s most productive hitters in April but followed it with five months of effectively league-average production. On the whole, he turned in a .280/.332/.448 batting line (115 wRC+). Over the past three seasons, Bohm has combined for a .278/.325/.427 slash, demolishing left-handed pitching along the way but producing at a roughly average clip against fellow righties.

Given his excellent bat-to-ball skills — 14.2% strikeout rate in 2024; 15.7% dating back to 2022 — Bohm is a sensible target for a Royals club that places a heavy emphasis on putting the ball in play. Kansas City had baseball’s third-lowest strikeout rate in 2024, and since 2021 only five teams have posted a lower collective strikeout rate than the Royals. Plugging Bohm in as a regular at third base would provide an offensive upgrade over slick-fielding Maikel Garcia, who’s arguably better suited as a utilityman, given his defensive chops.

Speaking of glovework, however, Bohm is something of a mixed bag on that front. The Royals have typically prioritized plus defenders in addition to their affinity for contact-oriented bats. Bohm has typically graded out as a poor defender at the hot corner, but he posted career-best marks in Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4) in 2024. If the Royals believe those gains can be sustained, he’d make all the more sense as a trade target.

Bohm is controlled for another two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. It’s a generally reasonable rate that shouldn’t be cumbersome, even for a mid-level payroll club like Kansas City. While the Royals have in-house options at third base (Garcia) and at second base (Michael Massey), their interest in India and Bohm suggests a desire to add at least one bat to that infield mix. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and, of course, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. aren’t going to be displaced, leaving second base or third base as the likely positions to be upgraded.

For the Phillies, trading Bohm wouldn’t be so much about shedding salary or moving on from an unproductive player as it would reimagining an offense that hasn’t gotten them over the hump in recent postseason trips. Bohm has hit well with men on base in recent seasons (hence consecutive 97 RBI campaigns) but offers average power and stark platoon splits. The Phillies, meanwhile, don’t have ample pathways to pursuing upgrades in the lineup. First base (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), catcher (J.T. Realmuto) and right field (Nick Castellanos) are all manned by expensive veterans. Third base (Bohm), second base (Bryson Stott) and the other two outfield spots (combination of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Austin Hays) are the primary areas where president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski can look to bring about some form of change.

As for Ward, he’s an on-paper trade candidate for an Angels club that just finished dead last in the American League West. However, owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian have both expressed a desire to put forth a competitive club next winter. Ward, coming off a .246/.323/.426 (111 wRC+) showing in 2024 and a .259/.338/.440 line (118 wRC+) since 2021, is seemingly a part of that vision. Few outsiders see a path to contention for the ’25 Angels, but the team’s actions thus far — trading for Jorge Soler and signing Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and Kevin Newman — suggest that they’re more focused on adding than on subtracting.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored last month, there’s a scenario where the Angels move Ward and still make an effort to compete. Ward could be flipped for rotation help — a potential match with the Royals — or traded for younger talent, with the Angels reallocating his would-be salary to other areas of need. Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, which isn’t unreasonable for a player of his ability but also isn’t a raucous bargain. The Royals could plug Ward into left field, providing a stark upgrade over MJ Melendez, and pair him with defensive standout Kyle Isbel in center and rebound hopeful Hunter Renfroe in right field.

There’s no telling just yet how it’ll all shake out, but it seems Kansas City is quite active on the trade front at the moment. In addition to the bats they’ve targeted, the Royals have received interest from other clubs in each of the aforementioned Garcia, Singer, right-hander Alec Marsh and left-hander Kris Bubic. Picollo and his staff seemingly have plenty of potential concepts to explore, with the end goal of bolstering a currently top-heavy lineup a fairly obvious priority.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic write that the Royals are looking for ways to improve their on-base skills, particularly out of the leadoff spot. To that end, Sammon and Woo report that Kansas City may entertain trade offers on Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh if they can net lineup help.

The Kansas City offense was almost entirely dependent on Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez this year. They were the only Royals players to reach 20 homers. Of the nine K.C. hitters with 300+ plate appearances, four had better than average seasons by measure of wRC+. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and second baseman Michael Massey only narrowly checked in above average, hitting for power but with middling on-base marks.

Finding a reliable table-setter in front of Witt and Perez was a huge challenge. Kansas City gave Maikel Garcia the majority of the playing time atop the lineup. Garcia stole 27 bases but provided very little at the plate. Royals leadoff men had a putrid .228/.270/.334 batting line overall. No team had a lower OBP out of the top spot, while only the White Sox got less slugging output. That left Witt to take a lot of at-bats with the bases empty. K.C.’s franchise shortstop ranked eighth in MLB in plate appearances with no one on base. The seven players ahead of him were all primarily leadoff hitters (thereby guaranteed to take at least one at-bat with the bases empty every game).

While a free agent pursuit of someone like Jurickson Profar or Gleyber Torres would address the leadoff spot, the Royals could do so more affordably by dealing from their pitching depth. Kansas City has an excellent front four in their rotation. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo project as an elite 1-2 tandem. Wacha is back to resume his role as a quality third starter, while righty Brady Singer is a mid-rotation arm in his own right. The fifth spot is a little less established.

Marsh held that role for the bulk of the ’24 season. The Arizona State product started 25 times and tossed 129 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. He struck out 22.4% of opponents against a solid 7.1% walk rate. While it wasn’t a dominant showing, Marsh had serviceable numbers for a fifth starter. The Royals nudged him out of the rotation when they acquired Michael Lorenzen at the deadline. With Lorenzen returning to free agency, Marsh could be the in-house favorite for that job again.

He’ll have competition from former Brave Kyle Wright. Kansas City acquired the right-hander last offseason, weeks after Atlanta announced that the former fifth overall pick underwent shoulder surgery. The Royals stashed him on the injured list all year with an eye towards a 2025 return. While it’s difficult to bank on a pitcher who has missed the majority of the last two seasons to injury, Wright posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts in 2022. The Royals are surely interested to see how his stuff looks in Spring Training. That could increase their willingness to deal Marsh.

Bubic could be in the mix for the fifth starter role as well, but he spent this past season in the bullpen. The Stanford product underwent Tommy John surgery in April ’23. He was sidelined into the beginning of July this year. The Royals used him in relief when he returned. That helped an underperforming bullpen while limiting his workload in his first season back.

The move was a success. Bubic posted excellent numbers over 30 1/3 innings, turning in a 2.67 earned run average while punching out more than 32% of opponents. He got swinging strikes at a huge 14.8% clip while averaging a personal-high 93 MPH on his fastball in short stints. That’s much better than the 4.99 ERA he owns across 60 career starts, although he flashed better velocity and swing-and-miss acumen in a small sample in ’23 before going under the knife.

Kansas City’s bullpen remains a weak point. The Royals could prefer to keep Bubic as a potential leverage piece. There’d be plenty of teams interested in plugging him into their bullpens, while there are presumably clubs that still view him as a rotation target.

Bubic is under arbitration control for two more seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $2.8MM salary. Marsh doesn’t have the same upside but comes with a much longer contractual window. He just surpassed one year of service and is controllable through 2029. He won’t get to arbitration for another two seasons and should have appeal for teams seeking an affordable fifth or sixth starter.

Selby, 26, made his MLB debut with the Pirates last year and struggled to a 9.00 ERA despite a 4.80 FIP in 24 innings of work. He remained on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster throughout the offseason but was designated for assignment in early April when the Pirates needed to clear space for catcher Joey Bart on their 40-man roster. The Royals promptly swung a trade to acquire Selby later that week, and he’s been in the Royals organization ever since. The righty made just two appearances total for Kansas City at the big league level where he surrendered three runs (two earned) on two walks and two hits without recording a strikeout.

The majority of Selby’s season has come at the Triple-A level, where he’s pitched to a 5.32 ERA in 22 innings of work between his time with the Pirates and Royals. Those mediocre results have come despite an excellent 29.5% strikeout rate at the level, as Selby has been held back by an elevated 11.6% walk rate. Selby’s penchant for giving up free passes has followed him at the big league level as well, as he’s walked 13.4% of the batters he’s faced in his 27 innings of big league experience while striking out a decent 23.6%. The Royals will have one week to work out a trade regarding Selby or attempt to pass him through waivers. If he clears waivers, the club will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A, where he’d serve as a non-roster depth option.

Selby’s departure makes way for Bubic, who is making his return to the big leagues after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April of last year. The 26-year-old was selected by the Royals with the 40th overall selection in the 2018 draft and made his big league debut with the club back in 2020 as a starting pitcher. In three years as a member of the club’s rotation, Bubic generally posted results commensurate with those of a typical back-end starter. He pitched to a 4.89 ERA (90 ERA+) with a similar 4.93 FIP in 309 innings of work. While he struck out a decent 20% of batters faced, his 10.5% walk rate was on the high side and limited his effectiveness.

Bubic entered the 2023 season once again as a part of the rotation in Kansas City, and through three starts he appeared as though he may have been turning a corner. His 3.94 ERA, while it was 17% better than league average, wasn’t exactly anything to write home about. That being said, his peripheral numbers suggested the former top prospect may have been in a much better place than previous years. He was striking out 23.5% of batters faced on the year and, most importantly, was showcasing much stronger control with a minuscule 2.9% walk rate that left him with an excellent 2.63 FIP. Unfortunately, Bubic’s season was cut short by surgery before he or the Royals could see how sustainable that improved control truly was.

The lefty began his rehab process this year once again in a starting role, but recently moved into the bullpen near the end of his rehab assignment. That likely offers a hint as to the role he’ll be used in now that he’s back in Kansas City, as the Royals figure to stick with a rotation consisting of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, and Alec Marsh for the foreseeable future. While Bubic is seemingly poised to join the club in a multi-inning relief role, he’ll nonetheless look to carry over the strong results he achieved during his rehab assignment in Triple-A over to the majors. The lefty made nine appearances (five starts) at the highest level of the minors during his rehab, and pitched to a 2.63 with a 25.4% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate in 27 1/3 innings of work.

While Bubic has worked from the rotation in the minors thus far, that won’t be his role with the big league club. General manager J.J. Picollo tells MLB.com’s Anne Rogers that the Royals are moving Bubic to the bullpen for now (X link). He has a week and a half left on his rehab assignment, so he’ll begin working in relief at Triple-A Omaha.

The assignment probably doesn’t come as a shock. While the 6’3″ southpaw has been a starter for essentially his entire career, Kansas City already has a defined front five. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh have taken all but four of the team’s starts this season. Ragans, Lugo and Singer have been varying degrees of excellent. Wacha is having his typically solid year, turning in a 4.07 ERA with plus control. K.C. signed him to fill that role as an innings eater and certainly isn’t bumping him from the rotation while he’s pitching this effectively.

Marsh is arguably the one question mark of the group. The second-year righty overcame a 15.9% strikeout rate to turn in a 2.70 ERA during the first month of the season. He dramatically increased the whiffs and ran a 3.86 ERA behind a 27.4% strikeout percentage in May. The wheels have fallen off over the past couple weeks, though. Marsh’s strikeout rate has normalized in between the levels of his first two months and he has allowed 6.66 earned runs per nine in June. He dominated the Yankees for seven scoreless innings on June 13 but has allowed at least three runs in the other six of his most recent seven starts.

If the Royals wanted to push Bubic back into the rotation, Marsh was the only one who might’ve been bumped. His overall body of work is still solid — a 4.40 ERA with average strikeout and walk rates — so the Royals will push Bubic to the bullpen instead.

Productive as their starting five has been, Kansas City’s relief group has been a weakness. They entered play Monday ranked 22nd in the majors with a 4.43 earned run average. No bullpen has recorded fewer strikeouts (17.5%) or missed fewer bats on a per-pitch basis (8.9% swinging strike rate). Picollo has already made clear the front office will try to add some firepower via trade.

Bubic isn’t the kind of power arm the front office has been seeking. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he leans on a low-80s changeup, not a power breaking ball, as his go-to secondary pitch. Yet Bubic had flashed bat-missing upside just before his elbow gave out. He ran a massive 14.7% swinging strike rate and punched out 23.5% of opposing hitters over his first three starts in 2023. Bubic’s elbow never gave him a chance to prove he could sustain that extra level.

The early returns on his rehab stint have been promising. Bubic owns a 2.14 ERA in 21 innings with Omaha, where he has fanned nearly 26% of opposing hitters.

February 22: The Royals announced the signing of catcher Austin Nola to a major league contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X links) first reported the deal. Kansas City placed Kris Bubic on the 60-day injured list to clear an opening on the 40-man roster.

Nola, a client of Paragon Sports International, had been in camp with the Brewers on a non-roster pact. GM Matt Arnold told reporters this evening that Milwaukee was granting him a release to pursue other opportunities (relayed on X by Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

Milwaukee indeed has a fairly crowded catching depth chart. Nola was never going to supplant William Contreras as the starter. At the time he agreed to his deal on January 5, the backup role was going to be held by Eric Haase. Milwaukee added a clearer #2 catcher this week when they signed Gary Sánchez. Haase remains on the roster and is out of options. There was little chance of Nola securing an MLB job in camp unless one or two of the players above him suffered an injury.

It’s the second straight year in which Sánchez has blocked Nola’s path to big league playing time. That’s largely on account of the latter’s recent struggles, particularly last season. He’d been the Opening Day catcher for the Padres in each of the last two years. He got off to a very poor start in 2023, hitting .146/.260/.192 over 52 games. San Diego optioned him to Triple-A in mid-July, relying on the tandem of Sánchez (whom they’d claimed off waivers a few weeks earlier) and Luis Campusano for the stretch run.

Nola only appeared in eight Triple-A contests. He spent some time on the minor league injured list. In September, he revealed that he’d been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, a vision disorder. While that could’ve played a role in his dismal production, it was nevertheless an easy call for San Diego to non-tender him. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $2.35MM salary if he were offered an arbitration contract.

That ended an overall disappointing tenure in Southern California. The Padres acquired Nola at the 2020 trade deadline from the Mariners. While the LSU product had hit .280/.351/.476 in a limited sample with Seattle, he managed a .234/.314/.320 slash over 819 plate appearances as a Padre.

His formerly strong defensive marks also dropped precipitously. Nola had rated as an above-average framer and blocker early in his career. Over the past two seasons, he has received very poor grades in both departments. Nola has roughly average arm strength.

Despite the recent struggles, he gets a 40-man roster spot in Kansas City. The Royals have Salvador Pérez and Freddy Fermín as the two catchers on the 40-man. Fermín played well enough last year to hold the backup job. Nola still has one minor league option remaining, though, so K.C. could keep him at Triple-A Omaha as needed.

Nola has four years and 45 days of MLB service. Players with five years of service can no longer be optioned, so Nola would have the right to refuse additional minor league assignments once he crosses the five-year threshold. That won’t happen until the second half of next season at the earliest. The Royals could keep him around for 2025 via arbitration, so it could be a multi-year pickup if Nola finds his form.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Minnesota was reportedly speaking with teams about potential Vazquez deals back in November, though Gleeman and Dan Hayes wrote at the time that a trade may not be too likely, both due to Vazquez’s $20MM in remaining salary and the catcher’s very disappointing 2023 campaign.  In their most recent piece, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a Vazquez trade may still be something of a longshot, with the Twins’ desire to retain catching depth also acting as a factor.  If Vazquez was dealt, Ryan Jeffers would step into the starting catching role and either rookie Jair Camargo or another veteran addition would be the backup, so Minnesota might prefer to stand pat.

More from the AL Central…

• After playing third base in college and at the start of his pro career in 2021, Justyn-Henry Malloy now looks to be on more or less a full-time path as a corner outfielder, and the Tigers prospect told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that he has spent the winter preparing for this role.  “Every day, I’m out here shagging fly balls and making throws to bases,” Malloy said. “I want to be a player that my pitchers can trust….It’s something that I circle on my day, that we’re going to do some defense and get better.  That’s been my mentality all offseason.”  Baseball America ranked Malloy as the sixth-best prospect in Detroit’s system and also cited him as one of 15 players who just missed making their 2024 edition of the sport’s best prospects, noting that Malloy has a good throwing arm but struggled with accuracy in throwing from third to first base.  While Malloy’s defensive future is still a question mark, his bat already seems big league-ready — Malloy hit .277/.417/.474 with 23 home runs over 611 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo in 2023.
• Kris Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery last April, and the Royals southpaw told Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star that he is now about 10 days away from his first bullpen session.  Bubic expects to return around the middle of the season given the usual TJ recovery timeline, and he is taking the opportunity during his rehab to make some mechanical changes, as well as looking forward to continue work on developing a slider as a new pitch in his arsenal.  Bubic was the 40th overall pick of the 2018 draft, and is one of several well-regarded Royals pitching prospects who have yet to really break out at the big league level, thus greatly hampering Kansas City’s rebuild efforts.  The Tommy John procedure provided yet another obstacle for the 26-year-old Bubic, who has a 4.85 ERA over 325 career Major League innings.

Bubic, 26, was selected 40th overall in the 2018 draft, which was a notable pivot point for the franchise. The club had five picks in the first 58 selections of that draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. The fact that none of those picks has worked out exactly as hoped is a significant part of the club struggling to emerge from a lengthy rebuild.

In the case of Bubic, he had a 4.89 earned run average at the end of the 2022 season, having logged 309 innings at the major league level to that point. He came into 2023 looking to have made some improvements but required Tommy John surgery in April. He’ll surely begin the 2024 campaign on the injured list but could perhaps rejoin the club’s rotation by midseason.

How much stock to put into his strong start in 2023 is a matter of debate. On the one hand, it was just three starts and 16 innings, so small sample size caveats obviously apply. But if one wanted to put an optimistic spin on it, that wouldn’t be totally unjustified. A 3.94 ERA in three starts isn’t mind-blowing, but he had a .375 batting average on balls in play in that time. His 2.63 FIP and 3.55 SIERA suggest he may have deserved better. His 23.5% strikeout rate was solid but his 2.9% walk rate and 52.1% ground ball rate were both very strong.

For those looking for a deeper dive, both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs took a look at Bubic last year and found things to like. The lefty was featuring increased velocity, a different release point and a new slider. Perhaps the changed arsenal provides an explanation for the better results, but it is still a very small sample.

The Royals have signed a couple of free agents to bolster their rotation, inking both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Those two should join Cole Ragans, Singer, Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV in the rotation mix. Bubic will hopefully force his way into the picture at some point, depending on how his rehab progresses in the coming months.

Bubic qualified for arbitration last year as a Super Two player, earning $2.2MM in 2023. He will be limited to a fairly similar salary in 2024, a reflection of his mostly lost season. He’ll be eligible for two more arbitration passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

Cox, 26, was Kansas City’s fifth-round pick out of Mercer University back in 2018. He’s opened the season with 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball but a 22-to-11 K/BB ratio in Omaha. Cox is currently sporting a career-best 53.5% ground-ball rate in this year’s small sample of innings — a stark increase from the 37.5% mark he posted in 147 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball in 2022. Last season, Cox worked to a 4.21 ERA in Omaha, fanning just 16.2% of opponents but posting a strong 7.7% walk rate.

During the Royals’ most recent rebuilding effort, they spent a couple years putting an emphasis on college pitchers early in the draft, and Cox is a product of that strategy. It hasn’t panned out yet for Kansas City, however, as they’ve yet to produce a reliable big league starter from the experiment. Brady Singer certainly looked to be that during a breakout 2022 season, but he’s been torched for 28 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings this season. Other notable college draftees include Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy, Alec Marsh, Grant Gambrell and Jonathan Bowlan, among others, but the development on that group simply hasn’t gone as hoped, whether due to injury or poor performance.

The Royals didn’t announce Cox as a starter for any of their upcoming games, so he could well head to the bullpen for his initial MLB assignment. That said, Kansas City starting pitchers have combined for a ghastly 5.80 ERA on the season, so there ought to be ample opportunity for Cox to eventually break into the group. Brad Keller and the injured Bubic —  who’ll miss the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery — are the only Royals starters with ERAs under 6.00. Zack Greinke (6.10), Jordan Lyles (6.11), Singer (8.49) and Ryan Yarbrough (7.40) have all struggled enormously to begin the year.

It’s a very unfortunate setback for Bubic, 25, who was showing some positive signs here in 2023. Coming into this year, he had a 4.89 ERA through 309 innings, a somewhat disappointing mark for a guy who was selected 40th overall in 2018 and had been a touted prospect in the years after that. But through his first three starts this year, he had a 3.94 ERA and possibly was even better than that number would indicate. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and walked just 2.9%, big improvements over his 20% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate coming into the year. He also saw his ground ball rate jump to 52.1%, which was just 44.3% in prior seasons.

This is just three starts and small sample caveats certainly apply, but it’s also worth pointing out that Bubic had added a slider to his repertoire this year. Both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs wrote pieces last week that highlighted Bubic’s improved arsenal in the early parts of the year, suggesting that his better results might have been for real and perhaps could have gotten better going forward. Though his 2023 ERA was about a full run better than his career mark, he had an even shinier 2.71 FIP and 3.45 SIERA. Again, it’s just three starts, but it was backed up by actual changes to his arsenal and might not have been just noise. Bubic and the Royals will now have to wait over a year to test those changes over a larger sample.

It’s obviously a blow for Bubic personally but also for the Royals, who have made some decisions that put their fortunes in the hands of young starters. They have used many of their early draft picks in recent years on pitchers, with not a lot of success. Between 2015 and 2018, Bubic, Brady Singer, Josh Staumont, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Bowlan were all selected in the first 65 picks of their respective drafts. Up until last year, none of that group had found much major league success. Singer finally bucked the trend in 2022 by posting a 3.23 ERA in 153 1/3 innings and it seemed there was a chance that Bubic was following him. But now the latter is out for the remainder of the year and the former is struggling to a 8.14 ERA through his first four starts.

This loss will only compound the various struggles that the Royals are facing right now, as they have limped out to a 4-15 start, with their .211 winning percentage below all MLB teams except for the Athletics. Without Bubic, the Royals will proceed with four regular starters in Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller and Singer. Tonight, Taylor Clarke is serving as an opener in front of Ryan Yarbrough, who figures to get the bulk of the innings. Lynch is on the IL with a shoulder strain but could factor in whenever he’s healthy.

Bubic qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player, meaning this is his first of four arb seasons. He and the club agreed to a $2.2MM salary for this year. Even though he’s going to miss the vast majority of the season, he’ll be in line for a similar salary next year, since the arb system is designed so that salaries almost never go down. He can then go through the arbitration system twice more after that before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

Bubic pitched well in his first two starts of the season, but was touched up for five runs on 10 hits and a walk over five innings in yesterday’s outing against the Braves.  Bubic felt some forearm soreness in the aftermath and thought it might have been due to the game’s cooler temperatures, but unfortunately he’ll now face a larger problem in the form of a flexor strain.  It isn’t yet known what kind of timeline Bubic is facing for a recovery, as Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star) that Bubic was “getting further diagnostics” on the injury.

Even if Bubic is able to avoid serious injury, the IL stint is still an unwelcome setback for a pitcher hoping to break out in his fourth Major League season.  Bubic was the 40th overall pick of the 2018 draft, and one of the young arms Kansas City was counting on as the linchpins of their rebuilding period.  Of that group, however, only Brady Singer has really stepped up at the big league level — Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, and Bubic have all struggled to some degree, though Bubic has at least done enough to retain his spot in the K.C. rotation.

Bubic had a 4.89 ERA over 309 innings with the Royals from 2020-22, posting below-average walk and strikeout rates while struggling to limit hard contact.  In the small sample size of his 2023 efforts, Bubic’s 23.5% strikeout rate is a bit above average, while his control (2.9% walk rate) has been excellent.

Taylor will give the Royals more depth in the bullpen, which might be helpful in filling Bubic’s rotation spot since Quatraro suggested that an opener is a possibility.  However, due to an upcoming off-day, the Royals won’t need a fifth starter until April 25, giving the team some time to plan their next step.  If a traditional starter is used, Kowar, Max Castillo, or Jonathan Heasley might be options at Triple-A.

Bubic, 24, got off to a disastrous start this season with a 12.83 ERA over five starts and one relief appearance totaling 13 1/3 innings. He fared little better over three starts in Triple-A, surrendering 10 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. His peripheral numbers did improve, however, with a 4-to-17 walk-to-strikeout ratio after posting a 11-to-10 such mark in the bigs.

Bolanos, 25, has made eight appearances out of the bullpen this year while serving as a bulk reliever. He has a 4.42 ERA/5.71 FIP over 18 1/3 innings of work with 12 strikeouts and 12 walks in that time. Bolanos has primarily served as a starter while in the minors.

Over the past couple of years, Bubic seemed to be establishing himself as a solid, if unspectacular, part of the club’s rotation. Over 2020 and 2021, he made 30 starts and nine appearances out of the bullpen, throwing 180 innings with a 4.40 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 46.8% ground ball rate were all within a few points of league average. However, just about everything has gone in the wrong direction this year, as his ERA is currently at 12.83, with his strikeout rate dropping to 14.7%, his walk rate jumping to 16.2% and his grounder rate sinking to 38.3%. He’ll now head to Omaha and try to get the train back on the tracks. Despite having over two years of MLB service time now, he’s still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to recover.

The team is off to a disappointing 10-19 start. Although Bubic and Carlos Hernandez have struggled in the rotation, the club’s biggest weakness so far has been the bats. The team-wide slash line of .216/.282/.308 amounts to a wRC+ of 76, dead last in the majors.

Some other notes from the American League…

• During Spring Training, it seemed like the Tigers were poised to have their top two prospects crack the Opening Day roster. In the end, first baseman Spencer Torkelson followed through, but outfielder Riley Greene couldn’t make it after fracturing his foot just a few days before the opener. It seems he could be nearing a return to the field, with Jason Beck of MLB.com relaying word from manager A.J. Hinch that Greene is about to resume baseball activities. The club is out to a miserable 9-23 start, a worse record than every team except for the Cincinnati Reds. The primary culprit has been the offense, with Austin Meadows the only Tiger having a wRC+ higher than 101 in more than 50 plate appearances. There’s no guarantee a young player will hit the ground running in his first taste of MLB action, as evidenced by Torkelson’s .146/.276/.258 line, but it’s possible that Greene could provide a boost based on his .308/.400/.553 line in Triple-A last year. Since the demotion of Akil Baddoo, the outfield mix consists of Meadows, Willi Castro, Derek Hill and Robbie Grossman. With Grossman approaching free agency at season’s end, he’s a likely trade candidate, unless the Tigers can vault themselves back into contention over the next few months.
• The Orioles announced that pitching prospect Kyle Brnovich underwent Tommy John surgery this week, as relayed by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Brnovich was drafted by the Angels and traded to the Orioles as part of the Dylan Bundy deal before pitching for his original organization. Last year, he logged 95 innings across High-A and Double-A with a 3.32 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. Based on that strong season, he’s now considered the #30 prospect in the organization by Baseball America and #17 by FanGraphs. He started the year in Triple-A but was only able to throw eight innings before being shut down. He’ll now miss the remainder of this season, but could be pushing for a rotation spot in the second half of next year, given the usual 12-18 month recovery time from the procedure. Even with this setback, the club’s future rotation picture is starting to look better. Bruce Zimmermann, Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish are showing signs of promise in the early going, to varying degrees, with prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall pitching well in Triple-A and surely nearing their MLB debuts.

At one point, Bubic looked like a good bet to open the year in the Royals’ rotation. A former supplemental round pick, he made his MLB debut last year and held his own across ten starts. Bubic worked to a 4.32 ERA/4.69 SIERA with serviceable strikeout (22.1%), walk (9.9%) and groundball (46.6%) rates. Baseball America named him the Royals’ #5 prospect over the winter on the heels of that showing.

The Royals signed Mike Minor to a two-year deal over the offseason, though. That addition and a rough Spring Training were enough to bump Bubic from the season-opening rotation. While he’s now in line to see his first major league action of the year, it seems he’ll be on hand as a bullpen option for the time being. Kansas City has gotten strong performances from each of Danny Duffy, Brady Singer and Jakob Junis so far. Minor and Brad Keller haven’t been good but will obviously get a longer leash to figure things out based on their respective track records. That doesn’t leave any room for Bubic if the Royals are planning to stick with a five-man starting staff.

While Bubic and Newberry join the relief corps, Zimmer will be knocked out of action for the time being. The former top prospect has been fine in the early going, allowing five runs in 13.1 innings with 12 strikeouts and five walks. The team didn’t provide a timetable for his potential return. McBroom was optioned out after taking just seven plate appearances over five games.

Entering camp, Bubic seemed to have a good chance of cracking the Opening Day rotation. A former top 100 prospect, he debuted with the Royals early in the 2020 season and went on to make 10 starts and total 50 innings, ranking third and fourth on the team in those respective marks. Bubic worked to a 4.32 ERA in that time, adding solid ground-ball (46.6) and strikeout (22.1) percentages but posting a slightly elevated 9.9 percent walk rate.

For a 23-year-old making the jump directly from Class-A Advanced to the Majors, it was a strong showing. Bubic finished on a high note as well, turning in a 2.96 ERA with 30 strikeouts through 27 1/3 innings over his final five starts of the season. He also struggled in Spring Training, however, yielding eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits and four walks with four strikeouts through 7 1/3 frames.

With Bubic out of the picture, at least for now, the rotation in Kansas City comes a bit more clearly into focus. The Royals have Brad Keller, Danny Duffy and Mike Minor all set in place. Right-hander Brady Singer, another former top prospect who debuted alongside Bubic in 2020, has been excellent thus far in Spring Training and could be the favorite for the fourth spot. Jakob Junis could be in line for the fifth spot, although the Royals have several non-roster players still in camp, including veteran Ervin Santana and top prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar.