Yates becomes the latest big acquisition in a huge Dodgers offseason. He’s their second marquee pickup in the late innings. Los Angeles signed Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact with deferrals not long before agreeing to terms with Yates. The Dodgers had also retained Blake Treinen on a two-year deal earlier in the winter. They’ll join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia in what should be one of the game’s best relief groups.

Scott and Yates were arguably the two best free agent relievers, at least for the upcoming season. The 37-year-old Yates (38 in March) was never going to match the three-year terms for Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes, but he’s coming off the best platform season in the relief class. He turned in a sterling 1.17 earned run average while striking out nearly 36% of batters faced for the Rangers. Yates went 33-34 on save opportunities while firing 61 2/3 innings — the second-highest workload of his career.

Emmanuel Clase was the only reliever in MLB who was definitively better. Yates finished second behind Clase in ERA among relievers with 50+ innings. He was seventh in strikeout percentage. Yates placed in the top 25 in swinging strike rate (15.2%). Opponents had no success against either his 93 MPH fastball or his mid-80s splitter.

That was Yates’ second utterly dominant season. As a member of the Padres in 2019, he led MLB with 41 saves while turning in a 1.19 ERA across 60 2/3 frames. His next three years were essentially wiped out by injury, as he battled elbow issues and underwent his second career Tommy John procedure in March 2021. He returned to throw 60 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA ball for the Braves in 2023 before signing a $4.5MM deal with Texas last winter.

Yates becomes the ninth free agent reliever of this offseason to sign for at least $10MM annually (not including swingman Nick Martinez, who accepted a qualifying offer from Cincinnati). He trails only Scott in average salary, though that’s obviously in large part because his age limited him to one year.

The Dodgers are well into the highest luxury tax tier and pay a 110% tax on any spending at this point. They’re investing $27.3MM to add Yates to the back of the bullpen for a year. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax ledger around $382MM — more than $70MM higher than any other club’s projected payroll.

Los Angeles will presumably announce the signing within the next day or two, which will require a 40-man roster move. That could be a simple DFA, though it’s also possible they trade from their bullpen. They’re planning to run a six-man rotation, which means they can only carry seven relievers.

Scott, Yates, Treinen, Kopech, Phillips and Vesia seem locked into six spots. Neither Anthony Banda nor Ryan Brasier can be optioned, so one of them would probably be squeezed out if everyone’s healthy on Opening Day. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were marketing Brasier in recognition of the forthcoming roster squeeze.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported last week that Yates and the Dodgers had reached a tentative agreement, pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report that Yates had passed the physical and signed a one-year deal. ESPN”s Jeff Passan was first with the $13MM guarantee and $1MM in incentives, while Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic specified the $500K bonuses at 50 and 55 appearances. Image courtesy of Imagn.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
• What does parity mean? (5:25)
• Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
• How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
• What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
• How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
• The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
• The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

• The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here
• Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
• Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.

It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.

Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.

It should be noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.

Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.

Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.

Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.

The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.

The interest is perfectly understandable, as Yates is coming off an excellent season. He tossed 61 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year, allowing only 1.17 earned runs per nine. His 11.8% walk rate was fairly high but also not abnormal for him. He worked around those free passes by striking out 35.9% of batters he faced and also getting grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He took over the closer’s role in Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.

Despite that excellent season, the righty’s market will be limited. He is turning 38 years old in March, which will naturally put a cap on how long teams are willing to invest in him. He’s also had plenty of injury issues over the years. He hardly pitched at all from 2020 to 2022, with Tommy John surgery being the main reason. He returned to the mound in 2023 and had decent but not outstanding results, with a 3.28 ERA that year. His 31.5% strikeout rate was quite strong but a few ticks below his 2024 level, while the walks were even higher, finishing at 14.6%.

Atlanta could have kept him around for 2024 via a $5.75MM club option but opted for a $1.25MM buyout instead. That led to Yates getting a one-year, $4.5MM deal from the Rangers, which worked out great. His excellent season will definitely get him a bump from that level, but some hesitation from clubs is still justifiable.

The Dodgers have generally been willing to invest in talented pitchers, despite injury concerns. That hasn’t always worked out, as they have sometimes been heavily snakebit over the years, though they just hoisted the World Series trophy last year.

The club presumably still has some interest in Yates but the Scott deal might also lower their urgency. It’s not as though the bullpen was a glaring weakness to begin with. The club’s relief corps had a combined ERA of 3.53 last year, a mark bested by only three other teams in the majors. They lost Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly to free agency at season’s end but re-signed Treinen last month and now have Scott in the fold as well.

RosterResource currently projects the club to run a six-man rotation next year, which is certainly a possibility. In 2024, they avoided using Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a five-day schedule in order to help him make the transition from Japan, where starters normally throw once a week. In 2025, they will be folding in Roki Sasaki, who is younger than Yamamoto and has had more injuries in his career. They will also be getting guys like Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May back from lengthy surgery absences. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow haven’t been workhorses in their career either. Clayton Kershaw will presumably re-sign with the club and be back in the mix, though he’s had his own share of injury concerns lately. In short, having six starters and lowering everyone’s workload would be sensible.

Running a six-man rotation would normally limit a club to a seven-man bullpen, since clubs aren’t allowed to roster more than 13 pitchers. Ohtani’s status as a two-way player means he can effectively be counted as a position player, allowing the Dodgers to have both a six-man rotation and eight-man bullpen at times, though not at the start of the season. Ohtani missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery and then also required arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder just a few months ago. Last month, manager Dave Roberts said it’s unlikely Ohtani will be in the club’s rotation to start the year, so they may be capped at 13 pitchers and a seven-man bullpen until Ohtani can get back on the mound.

Scott and Treinen will be in two spots, with the Dodgers also having Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda and Ryan Brasier. That makes for seven arms that seem fairly locked in. Vesia is the only one that can be optioned and he just posted a 1.76 ERA last year. It’s still possible that the club signs Yates anyway then just waits to see if everyone stays healthy through the spring. If that comes to pass, they could then cut someone at the end of camp. But it’s also possible they will just pass on Yates and see how the season plays out with this group.

As mentioned, the club had a strong bullpen last year and has now added Scott to it. RosterResource also projects next year’s payroll at $369MM and their competitive balance tax number at $371MM, with both of those numbers close to $40MM beyond last year’s figures. Given how aggressive they’ve been, no one would be surprised if they kept adding, but they also might feel like they’ve done enough at this point.

If Yates needs to look elsewhere for his next contract, he should have plenty of options. He’s been connected to the Cubs, Tigers, Rangers and Diamondbacks this offseason and presumably has interest from other clubs as well. Teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Atlanta had some interest in Scott and could be looking elsewhere for relief help after he landed with the Dodgers. The relief market has been heating up more broadly of late, with Scott, A.J. Minter, Jose Leclerc, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Kittredge agreeing to deals in recent weeks.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Yates for a strong one-year deal with a $14MM guarantee. That was a reflection of his aforementioned excellent season but also his yellow flags. The offseason has been kind to some relievers, with Scott, Minter and Clay Holmes surpassing projections, though the Mets plan to stretch out Holmes as a starter. Hoffman came in below his prediction but that seems to have been a result of some concerns about his shoulder in his physical. Treinen got a two-year deal despite the fact that he’ll turn 37 this year and has a lengthy injury history. All those factors should lead to a healthy deal for Yates, regardless of which team he ultimately lands with.

Arizona GM Mike Hazen has left no doubt about his team’s desire to add a closing option this offseason. “I still feel like a back-end bullpen guy to help out with [Justin Martinez] and with [A.J. Puk] and those guys, I still see that,” Hazen said in a radio appearance back in early November. “I thought when [Paul Sewald] was closing, we had the best version of who we were, frankly. … But, we know [Martinez and Puk] can close, too, so we’ll see.

Yates, 38 in March, is fresh off a dominant rebound campaign with the Rangers, for whom he saved 33 games while pitching to a 1.17 ERA over the life of 61 2/3 innings. Yates earned his second career All-Star nod, fanned 35.9% of the opponents he faced, and issued walks at a 9.6% clip (higher than average but generally offset by the gaudy strikeout rate).

The 2024 season was Yates’ second consecutive year with 60-plus innings pitched, but injuries have hindered the righty at various points in his career. He threw only 11 1/3 big league innings from 2020-22; he was limited to six appearances in 2020 thanks to an elbow injury — one that wound up requiring Tommy John surgery a year later in 2021 (his second TJS operation). That procedure wiped out his entire 2021 season and the majority of his 2022 campaign.

When healthy, Yates has been a lights-out late-inning option in recent years. He’s the epitome of a late bloomer, as he didn’t truly solidify himself as a quality big league reliever until his age-30 season and didn’t break out in full until his age-31 campaign with the Padres, in 2018. Since that breakout, Yates boasts a scintillating 2.21 ERA with 93 saves, 30 holds, a 35.5% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate.

Yates would (clearly) fit the Diamondbacks’ desire for a bona fide stopper at the end of the bullpen. The question is whether he’ll fit into the budget. After last year’s brilliant showing, he’s in position to command an eight-figure salary, perhaps even over a multi-year deal if a team isn’t scared off by offering two years to a 38-year-old who’s twice required UCL surgery.

Hazen said in the aforementioned radio appearance that he expected payroll to be in the general vicinity of 2025’s $173MM mark. RosterResource currently projects a $160MM payroll for the Diamondbacks. Yates could command the bulk or perhaps even the entirety of the remaining budget, though it’s always possible that other trades will impact the payroll. The D-backs have received trade interest in their young outfielders and in their starting rotation. The club surely still hopes to shed at least a portion of the $22.5MM owed to Jordan Montgomery.

A multi-year deal for Yates would be nearly unprecedented for a reliever this old. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the only free agent relievers in the past decade to sign multi-year deals beginning in their age-38 season are Jason Grilli and Darren O’Day, both of whom signed for a total of $8MM or less. The only real comp for a pitcher of this age commanding a multi-year deal at a premium rate is Daniel Bard’s two-year, $19MM extension with the Rockies back in July 2022 — a deal that obviously did not pan out.

To that point, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently described re-signing Kirby Yates as “a priority” for Texas. Similarly, Grant wrote that they would “absolutely love” to re-sign their All-Star closer. Yates was phenomenal for the Rangers in 2024. The veteran right-hander pitched to a 1.17 ERA and 2.85 SIERA in 61 appearances, saving 33 games in 34 chances. He was just as successful at inducing whiffs as he was at limiting hard contact, thanks to a highly effective four-seam and splitter pairing. Despite his 37 years of age, he was one of the most dominant closers in the game, vastly outperforming the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed ahead of the season.

It’s easy to see why the Rangers would love to reunite with Yates, even though he’ll come with a much higher price tag this time. MLBTR put Yates at no. 38 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, predicting he’d sign a one-year, $14MM deal. Young might have to get creative to find room in the budget for a contract like that – Texas is reportedly trying to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold in 2025 – but his recent decision to trade Nathaniel Lowe shows he’s not afraid to do just that. RosterResource currently puts the Rangers’ luxury tax payroll at approximately $229MM, which is $12MM below the first tier of the tax. Signing Yates could push them over, but not so far over that Young wouldn’t be able to find a way to bring them back down.

The Rangers bullpen finished 26th in ERA and 23rd in SIERA in 2024. To make matters worse, they lost their four most experienced, high-leverage arms to free agency: Yates, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, and José Leclerc. Arms like Webb, Garcia, Armstrong, and Milner will be much-needed reinforcements, but none can quite replace what the team lost at the back end of the ’pen. Thus, bringing back Yates makes perfect sense. A.J. Minter, another veteran arm who has been linked to the Rangers, could potentially fill that hole instead.

Yates, 38 in March, just wrapped up an excellent season with the Rangers. He tossed 61 2/3 innings for them this year, allowing just 1.17 earned runs per nine. He surely got a bit of help from a .168 batting average on balls in play and 88.1% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side, but even adjusted numbers like his 2.50 FIP and 2.85 SIERA suggest he would have fared well even with less favor from the baseball gods.

His 11.1% walk rate was on the high side but he counteracted that by striking out 35.9% of batters faced and keeping 45.5% of balls in play on the ground. He took over the closer’s role in Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.

Despite that strong performance, Yates will be limited in the kind of contract he can secure. That’s both on account of his age and also his injury history. He hardly pitched at all during the 2020 to 2022 period, mostly due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. He bounced back in 2023 with a solid but not dominant season, posting a 3.28 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate, 14.6% walk rate and 36.4% ground ball rate.

Accounting for those factors, Yates is likely looking at a one-year deal this winter. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $14MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 Free Agents post.

The Tigers could have some budgetary wiggle room and seem to want to avoid long-term deals. It was reported last week that they wanted to keep their potential starting pitching signing to one- or two-year pacts, then they signed 37-year-old Alex Cobb to a one-year deal. If they have a similar mindset for upgrading their bullpen, then Yates make a lot of sense.

RosterResource projects their payroll at just $95MM for next year. That’s roughly in line with last year’s payroll but they’ve been far higher in the past. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had a $200MM payroll as recently as 2017. That was the year that owner Mike Ilitch died and the club hasn’t been in that range since Mike’s son Christopher took over. However, the Tigers did run the payroll up to $135MM going into 2022 when they thought their rebuild was over. That didn’t end up being the case but they finally cracked the postseason in 2024 for the first time in a decade.

The Tigers currently have Beau Brieske, Jason Foley and Tyler Holton as some of their more interesting relievers but no one of that group has reached 200 MLB innings pitched or celebrated a 30th birthday. Just about any club in the majors could add someone like Yates and bump everyone else down a peg on the pecking order, but that’s perhaps especially true in Detroit where there aren’t a lot of guys cemented in.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

Verlander described the process of trying to get fully right in the aftermath of this injury as the most difficult of his career, “because sometimes it’s just one thing that makes it click.”  With just one regular-season start left before the playoffs, Verlander acknowledged that he might not be part of the Astros’ postseason rotation.  While “it’s not my decision” to make, Verlander noted that “I was away for two months and all these guys were pitching fantastic.  Seen a bunch of guys really come into their own.”

More from around the AL West…

• Kirby Yates will be 38 on Opening Day 2025, and the veteran reliever told Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News that “I’ve got two more years that I could probably pitch at an effective level.”  Whether or not this translates to a two-year deal remains to be seen this winter, but Yates has certainly helped his case with a very impressive season as the Rangers’ closer.  A return to Texas would be welcomed, as Yates said “I hope those talks happen.  I’ve enjoyed it here, I think it’s a great fit, my family’s liked it here, it’s an easy transition for me.  If it works out, it works out.  If it doesn’t, I’ll always be thankful for the Rangers organization, Rangers fans and everybody that’s treated me the way they have.”  Staying with Texas would check off a couple of important boxes on Yates’ offseason wish list, as he noted that he’d ideally like to pitch near his home and family in Arizona, as well as relatively close to his extended family in his native Hawaii.  Yates has an 1.23 ERA and 31 saves over 58 2/3 innings for the Rangers this season, more than delivering on the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed last offseason.
• The Angels activated Kevin Pillar from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and optioned infielder Charles Leblanc to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Pillar had been out of action since September 6 due to a left thumb sprain, and will now return for what will probably be the final games of his 12-year Major League career.  Pillar marked his activation with his eighth homer of the season in Friday’s 9-7 loss to the Astros, and the veteran is hitting .242/.300/.402 over 291 combined PA with the White Sox and Angels.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Yates, 37 in March, had something of a bounceback year in 2023, at least from a health perspective. Over the 2020-2022 seasons, he only tossed 11 1/3 total innings due to elbow injuries, requiring Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He then signed a two-year deal with Atlanta, with that club knowing he wouldn’t be a big factor in 2022.

He was healthy enough to make 61 appearances in 2023 with a 3.28 earned run average, though the underlying metrics were less encouraging. His 31.5% strikeout rate was still very strong but he also walked 14.6% of batters faced. A low batting average on balls in play of .211 and a high strand rate of 85.4% helped to keep runs off the board, which is why his 4.63 FIP and 3.90 SIERA were a bit less bullish on his performance. Atlanta let him go by choosing a $1.25MM buyout rather than a $5.75MM salary on a club option for 2024.

But prior to his lengthy injury woes, Yates was one of the best pitchers in the league for a time. In 2018, he posted an ERA of 2.14 with the Padres, pairing a 36% strikeout rate with a 6.8% walk rate. He was even better in 2019, getting his ERA down to 1.19 as he struck out 41.6% of batters and walked just 5.3%, racking up 41 saves in that season.

Yates obviously wasn’t back to that level in 2023 and it’s probably not fair to expect he ever will be, given his age. But he was still getting plenty of strikeouts in 2023 and his 93.6mph fastball velocity was essentially all the way back to his pre-injury form, as he was at 93.9mph in 2018 and 93.5mph in 2019. Perhaps now that he is further removed from his surgery, his control will improve. It’s perhaps notable that he had an 18.5% walk rate through June 7 but a 12.3% rate from that point on, showing at least some signs of improvement.

Despite winning the World Series in 2023, the bullpen was an obvious weak spot for the Rangers. Collectively, their relievers had an ERA of 4.77 on the year, which placed them 24th in the league. Midseason pickups Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton reached free agency after the playoffs, along with one-year signee Will Smith. If Yates is in decent form next year, he can help them make up for those losses.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Rangers were signing Yates to a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $4.5MM guarantee.

Morton at one point publicly indicated uncertainty as to whether he’d pitched beyond his mid-30s, but he’s remained a high-quality starter who’ll now return to Atlanta for a fourth year in what will be his age-40 campaign. The veteran righty started 30 games with the Braves this past season, pitching to a 3.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate, 11.6% walk rate and 43.3% ground-ball rate over the life of 163 1/3 innings. That walk rate was abnormally high for Morton, who’d issued a free pass to just 8% of his opponents in the past six seasons combined, but his fastball velocity held strong at 95 mph.

While Morton isn’t necessarily the top-tier starter he was during his first season in Atlanta, he remains a quality mid-rotation arm. Given the strength of Atlanta’s pitching, he needn’t be any more than that, either. Lefty Max Fried and young righty Spencer Strider rank among the National League’s best starters, and Morton gives manager Brian Snitker and the organization a playoff-tested veteran to slot into the rotation behind that excellent pairing.

Righty Bryce Elder’s breakout 2023 campaign likely secured him a 2024 rotation spot as well, and the Braves currently have righties AJ Smith-Shawver, Michael Soroka, Ian Anderson (returning from Tommy John surgery) and lefties Dylan Dodd, Jared Shuster and Kolby Allard as depth options beyond that group. Kyle Wright will miss the 2024 season after undergoing October shoulder surgery, making Morton’s return and the steadiness that he brings to the table all the more pivotal.

The $20MM price point at which Morton returns has become the going rate for mid-rotation help — particularly given the short term of the deal. Fellow righties like Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) secured $17-18MM annual salaries on longer-term deals elsewhere in the league with the general expectation of functioning as third/fourth starters. With that salary now locked in, Atlanta’s payroll pushes north of $202MM, per Roster Resource — though trades, potential non-tenders and future free agent dealings will surely alter that number in the weeks and months to come.

As for Yates, he’ll head back to the open market after spending the past two seasons in Atlanta. The Braves inked him to a two-year, $8.25MM contract in the 2021-22 offseason, knowing he’d miss the majority of the ’22 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The former All-Star closer and 2019 NL saves leader (41) was one of the game’s best relievers during a brief two-year peak, but he pitched just seven innings in 2022 and battled considerable command issues this past season.

While Yates’ 3.28 ERA during his second Braves campaign was plenty solid, he also walked 14.6% of his opponents. At his best, Yates anchored the Padres’ bullpen with a 1.67 ERA, 38.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate, but that form wasn’t on display in Atlanta this year. The Braves were discouraged enough — and possess enough pitching depth — to turn down a net $4.5MM call on Yates, who’ll now head back to the open market in search for a new opportunity in advance of his age-37 season.

McHugh also spent two years as a Brave after signing as a free agent. He had a strong first season but struggled to a 4.30 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate in 2023. His season ended in early September when he landed on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing shoulder.

Meanwhile, Atlanta will rely on a relief corps headlined by Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and recent re-signees Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM). Both trade acquisitions were set to be free agents before putting pen to paper on new contracts within the past five weeks.

Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:

Atlanta Braves

• Charlie Morton: $20MM team option (no buyout)

The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.

• Eddie Rosario: $9MM team option (no buyout)

Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.

• Travis d’Arnaud: $8MM team option (no buyout)

d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.

A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.

• Collin McHugh: $6MM team option ($1MM buyout)

McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.

• Kirby Yates: $5.75MM team option ($1.25MM buyout)

It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.

The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.

Miami Marlins

• Johnny Cueto: $10.5MM team option ($2.5MM buyout)

Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.

• Matt Barnes: $8MM team option ($2.25MM buyout)

Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.

New York Mets

• Mark Canha: $11.5MM team option ($2MM buyout)

Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.

• Eduardo Escobar: $9MM team option ($500K buyout)

Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.

Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.

• Brooks Raley: $6.5MM team option ($1.25MM buyout)

Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.

Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

An elbow inflammation diagnosis for Yates is a bit alarming, as it comes on the heels of a lengthy rehab from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander missed most of the abbreviated 2020 campaign battling elbow issues, and his efforts to avoid going under the knife proved unsuccessful. He required Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and spent a season and a half on the injured list before being reinstated in mid-August.

Despite the lengthy rehab process, the Braves rolled the dice on a two-year guarantee for Yates last offseason. He’s making just $1MM this year and will earn $6MM next season before the club has to decide on a 2024 team option valued at $5.25MM. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff were clearly hoping Yates would recapture something resembling his 2019 form. During his last full healthy season, the Hawaii native was arguably the best reliever in the game. He saved an MLB-leading 41 games, posted a 1.19 ERA and struck out 41.6% of opponents over 60 2/3 innings with the Padres that season.

While there’s still time for Yates to turn things around, he’s shown signs of rust through his first month in Atlanta. The 35-year-old has logged seven innings over nine outings, allowing four runs on a pair of homers with five walks and six strikeouts. Yates’ 93.4 MPH average fastball velocity is right in line with his pre-surgery work, but the pitch has been hit hard so far this season. On the plus side, his trademark split has again been an excellent offering.

The Braves haven’t provided any kind of timetable for Yates’ expected return. There are a bit less than three weeks remaining in the regular season. A minimal stint would give Yates an opportunity to make it back for an outing or two before the playoffs, but any absence stretching notably beyond 15 days would take him into the postseason. Paired with his early struggles, Yates’ elbow discomfort could make it difficult for the team to carry him on a playoff roster. That’s particularly true in light of the team’s overall strength at the back end. The Braves have the majors’ fifth-lowest bullpen ERA (3.17) and second-best strikeout rate (27.4%).