Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)

Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.

From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.

Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report that Wilson and the Red Sox had an agreement. Rob Bradford of WEEI first reported it was a one-year major league deal with a $2.25MM base salary and $750K in incentives. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specific incentive structure.

Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ’pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.

The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.

That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ’pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.

If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.

While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.

None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.

Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.

Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.

General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.

Wilson, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers about a month ago. He pitched fairly well in the spring, striking out nine hitters in four official innings, but he seemed blocked from making a stacked Dodger bullpen. He opted out of that deal earlier this week.

Cracking the bullpen in Cincinnati should be easier. Brent Suter is one lefty option but they are otherwise shorthanded in that department. Sam Moll was slowed by some shoulder soreness when he reported to camp and has yet to pitch in an official spring game. Now that Young is also injured, Suter was the only healthy lefty reliever on the roster until this Wilson signing.

Wilson is coming off a couple of injury-marred seasons. After making just five appearances in 2022, he required Tommy John surgery in June of that year. While rehabbing, he signed with the Brewers for 2023. But after being activated off the injured list in July last year, he suffered a lat injury while warming up in the bullpen. He went right back on the IL and wasn’t able to come back, meaning he didn’t make an official big league appearance last year.

But prior to that, he was an effective big league reliever for about a decade. He pitched for the Pirates, Yankees, Tigers, Cubs, Mets and Reds from 2012 to 2021, posting a 3.42 earned run average in 522 appearances. He punched out 25.7% of batters who came to the plate, walking 10.7% of them and kept 46.8% of balls in play on the ground. He earned some leverage work in that time, getting 18 saves and 132 holds.

Though he missed the last couple of campaigns, Wilson is healthy now and brings a solid track record to the Reds. He and Suter should be the club’s lefty relief duo, at least until Moll and Young get healthy.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Reds and Wilson had agreed to a major league contract. The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer had previously relayed that Wilson was in Reds’ camp. MLBTR’s Steve Adams was first to report the deal contained a $1.5MM base salary with an additional $1MM in performance bonuses.

Wilson, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers last month. Wilson’s official spring stat line currently includes nine strikeouts and two walks in four innings, allowing two earned runs.

Despite that fairly solid showing, he was likely going to find it tough to crack a strong bullpen for the Dodgers. Manager Dave Roberts said last week that righty Daniel Hudson, also on a minor league deal, would make the team. Hudson would join a bullpen that also consists of options like Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Ryan Yarbrough, J.P. Feyereisen and others. Graterol has some hip tightness and may miss the Seoul Series but doesn’t seem in line for a lengthy absence.

It seems Wilson felt he would be better off by returning to the open market and looking for opportunities elsewhere. It wasn’t previously reported that he had an opt-out in his deal but it seems there was one there for him to use. He can market himself based on his lengthy track record, though he is coming off two mostly lost seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2022, which limited him to just 3 2/3 innings that year. He signed with the Brewers for 2023 and was activated off the injured list at the end of July, but he suffered a lat strain before getting into a game and went right back on the shelf. He wasn’t able to return later in the year.

From 2012 to 2021, Wilson made 522 big league appearances with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 25.7% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 10.7% clip and kept 46.8% of balls in play on the ground. He racked up 18 saves and 132 holds in that time, pitching for the Pirates, Yankees, Tigers, Cubs, Mets and Reds.

Though he missed the last couple of years due to injury, he appears to be healthy now. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand so Wilson will gauge the market and try to find the best opportunity for himself. He’ll join Brad Hand, Aaron Loup and Jarlín García as some of the southpaw relievers currently in free agency.

Wilson, 36, has been limited to just 3 2/3 innings over the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and a lat strain. That brief sample of work came with the Reds and saw Wilson create some intrigue with a bump back to his peak velocity levels (95.1 mph average fastball). He faced only 13 hitters as a Red but fanned seven of them and didn’t issue a walk. Surgery cut his season short, however, and he signed with the Brewers on a one-year deal with an option. The TJS rehab and subsequent lat strain wound up combining to keep Wilson off a big league mound for the entirety of the 2023 season.

Prior to those health setbacks, Wilson had enjoyed a lengthy run as a quality setup man for the Pirates, Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets. From 2013-21, the lefty rattled of 458 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 132 saves and 18 holds. He’s never had great command (career 10.7% walk rate), but Wilson has fanned just shy of 26% of hitters in his MLB career and sat north of 29% with his strikeout rate from 2017-20 after shelving his sinker and ramping up the usage of his four-seamer.

The Dodgers lost some left-handed depth in the bullpen this winter, trading Victor Gonzalez and Caleb Ferguson to the Yankees in separate swaps. Alex Vesia and Ryan Yarbrough are currently slated to manager Dave Roberts’ left-handed options in the ’pen, with fellow southpaw Matt Gage also on the 40-man roster (and still possessing a minor league option). Wilson and veteran T.J. McFarland give the Dodgers a pair of experienced lefty relievers who’ll be non-roster invitees in camp. They’ll be joined by NRI righties Daniel Hudson, Dinelson Lamet, Nabil Crismatt and Jesse Hahn, among others, in looking to win a spot in a crowded Dodgers bullpen.

Chafin, a 33-year-old lefty reliever, lingered on the free agent market last winter until mid-February.  He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal to return to the Diamondbacks, the team that made him a first-round pick out of Kent State nearly 12 years prior.  Chafin took a share of Arizona’s closing duties this year, logging eight saves but with some rough outings along the way.  He was able to punch out nearly a third of batters faced with Arizona, but also walked 12% of them.  Having added Paul Sewald from the Mariners, the D’Backs shipped Chafin to Milwaukee for righty Peter Strzelecki.

Chafin struggled mightily with the Brewers, unable to curb the walks or maintain a healthy strikeout rate.  In a stretch in late August, Chafin was battered for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings spanning five outings.  He righted the ship in September, at least ERA-wise, but the southpaw’s $725K buyout was an easy call for the Brewers as compared to his $7.25MM club option.

Wilson, another veteran lefty, did not pitch in 2023.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022, after which the Brewers signed him on a $1MM guarantee.  The Brewers reinstated Wilson from the 60-day IL in late July, but before he could get into a game he went back to the IL with a lat strain.  That injury knocked him out for the rest of the season, leaving little chance Milwaukee would choose the $2.5MM club option over his $150K buyout.

Chafin and Wilson will join the free agent market for lefty relievers, and figure to sign one-year deals.

The Brewers do have some lefty depth in the bullpen, as Hoby Milner posted a fine 2023 season.  Aaron Ashby, who underwent April labrum surgery, wasn’t able to build back up to help the Brewers this year but should be good to go in Spring Training.  Ashby is a potential rotation candidate as well.

Sousa missed a couple months with a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. Acquired from the division-rival Reds in April, the 28-year-old southpaw has made a pair of appearances for the Brew Crew this season. He’s logged 16 innings with Nashville, allowing 10 runs (nine earned). He’s fanned 22 hitters at the top minor league level. Milwaukee acquired Andrew Chafin at the trade deadline to pair with Hoby Milner as left-handed options for Craig Counsell. Now that he’s healthy, Sousa is in the mix behind them.

Wilson’s brutally-timed injury could well have increased Milwaukee’s urgency to trade for Chafin. The veteran lefty strained a lat while warming up for what would’ve been his first appearance after a Tommy John rehab. He’ll miss the remainder of the season and seems quite likely to be bought out next winter, meaning he might never make an appearance as a Brewer.

Wilson’s year will end without a single MLB appearance, as his time on the Brewers’ active roster was short-lived.  Milwaukee only activated Wilson from the 60-day IL on July 28, as the left-hander was returning from Tommy John surgery rehab.  Unfortunately, Wilson was warming up in the bullpen for his first appearance of the season when he suffered his lat strain, thus ending his Brewers debut before it officially happened.  Between this injury and the TJ surgery, Wilson has only pitched in five games (for 3 2/3 innings) since the start of the 2022 season.

The Brew Crew signed Wilson to a one-year free agent deal last offseason worth $1MM in guaranteed money — $850K in salary for 2023, and a $150K buyout of a $2.5MM club option for 2024.  The contract was designed to give Milwaukee some flexibility if Wilson ended up missing most or all of the season due to Tommy John rehab, so in theory, the lat strain shouldn’t much change the original equation for the team.  On the other hand, $2.5MM is a decent amount of money for a medium-payroll team to spend on a veteran (Wilson turns 36 this month) reliever who hasn’t pitched in almost two full seasons.  This isn’t a decision the Brewers will have to make until after the World Series is over, so there’s plenty of time for the club to monitor Wilson’s recovery from the lat injury.

In better injury news for the Brewers, Counsell said that Rowdy Tellez is slated to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Tellez hasn’t played since July 4, as a 10-day IL stint that started due to forearm inflammation was then extended when Tellez broke the fingertip on his left ring finger in a fluke accident while shagging fly balls before a game.

It’s a brutal development for Wilson. The left-hander had completed a near 14-month rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. He was reinstated from the injured list to make his Milwaukee debut last night. While throwing his warm-up pitches, he sustained the lat injury.

While it isn’t clear how long Wilson is expected to be out, manager Craig Counsell said shortly after last night’s game the injury appeared “pretty significant” (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). His absence again leaves Hoby Milner as the only southpaw in the MLB bullpen. If the Brewers anticipate another significant IL stay for Wilson, perhaps the front office will look to add lefty relief help in the next three days.

Wilson’s contract contains a $2.5MM club option or a $150K buyout for next season. This obviously wasn’t the way in which he envisioned beginning his Milwaukee tenure as he tries to work his way to having that option picked up.

Wilson, 35, has over a decade of experience as an effective reliever in the big leagues. He’s made 527 appearances dating back to his 2012 debut, with a career 3.41 ERA in those. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters faced, walked 10.7% and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. The Reds had a $1.22MM buyout over his services for 2023 but declined sent him to the open market.

The Brewers signed him this offseason to a one-year deal with a club option for 2024, knowing he would miss at least part of the 2023 campaign while rehabbing. Wilson got a $1MM guarantee in the form of an $850K salary this year and $150K buyout on the $2.5MM option.

Hoby Milner is the only left-handed reliever that has thrown more than three innings for the Brewers this year, so Wilson will give them a second option in that department. He’ll then have a couple of months to showcase his health and effectiveness before the club decides on that option.

Sousa, 28, was designated for assignment by the Reds in April and came to the Brewers in a cash deal. He’s since served as an up-and-down reliever for the Brewers, throwing 2 2/3 innings for the big league club and 13 1/3 at Triple-A. He landed on the injured list June 8 due to left shoulder nerve irritation. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that date, which would be early August. A return as soon as he’s eligible seems to be possible since he’s now going out on a rehab assignment.

The 35-year-old has plenty of experience as a solid left-handed reliever, having appeared in 527 career games with an ERA of 3.41. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters faced, walked 10.7% of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% rate. If he’s able to get healthy and back to his old self, he could give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Hoby Milner.

Wilson will likely need some time to get into game shape, but the fact that he’s beginning a rehab assignment barely a year after going under the knife is an encouraging sign that things are progressing well. His health and performance down the stretch will undoubtedly impact how much interest the Brewers have in picking up that option.

Some other health notes from around the league…

• Athletics right-hander Drew Rucinski has had a frustrating season in the health department and those frustrations seem to be continuing. He landed on the injured list in late May due to a stomach illness but that was followed by a low-grade MCL sprain in his right knee suffered during a bullpen session. Now Martín Gallegos of MLB.com relays that Rucinski will be undergoing MRIs on his left hip and lower back due to some apparent degenerative changes. That testing will hopefully shed some light on what’s ahead for the righty, whose return to North America isn’t going as hoped. He parlayed a strong performance in the KBO into a $3MM deal with the A’s plus a $5MM club option for 2024. He began the year on the IL due to a hamstring strain then got healthy enough to make four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 18 innings before this recent cascade of setbacks. He’s already been transferred to the 60-day injured list and isn’t eligible to return until late July.
• Twins right-hander Brock Stewart was placed on the 15-day injured list yesterday, retroactive to June 26, with right elbow soreness. His agent Joe Speed told Darren Wolfson of Skor North that it wasn’t a big issue and expressed confidence that Stewart would be able to contribute in the second half of the season. Manager Rocco Baldelli also seemed to think it wouldn’t be a huge problem, telling Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune that it appeared to be a minor bout of tendinitis. If it ultimately proves to be true that it’s no big deal, that’s a tremendous break for the Twins. Stewart has been utterly dominant this year, with an ERA of 0.70 through 25 2/3 innings, striking out 35.4% of opponents against an 11.1% walk rate. It’s been an incredible comeback story for a guy who is in the big leagues for the first time since 2019 and the club would undoubtedly be thrilled if he could make a quick return after the All-Star break.

This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.

Chicago Cubs

• Kyle Hendricks: $16MM team option ($1.5MM buyout)

Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.

• Yan Gomes: $6MM team option ($1MM buyout)

Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.

• Brad Boxberger: $5MM mutual option ($800K buyout)

Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.

Cincinnati Reds

• Joey Votto: $20MM team option ($7MM buyout)

Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.

• Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.

• Curt Casali: $4MM mutual option ($750K buyout)

Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Justin Wilson: $2.5MM team option ($150K buyout)

Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Jarlín García: $3.25MM team option (no buyout)

García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Paul DeJong: $12.5MM team option ($2MM buyout)

Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.

The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.

DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.

9:47am: The Brewers announced a couple of roster moves this morning, placing infielder Luis Urias on the 10-day injured list retroactive to March 31 after he sustained a left hamstring injury on Opening Day. The team also announced that left-handed pitcher Justin Wilson has been transferred to the 60-day IL.

It opens the door for the Brewers to officially add prospect Joey Wiemer to their big league roster, as he’ll take the place of Urias, while Wilson’s move to the 60-day IL opens up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Urias hurt his hamstring in the ninth inning of Milwaukee’s 4-0 Opening Day loss to the Cubs, having gone 0-4 in the match. There’s no indication yet of how long Urias will be out for, but this opens the door for Brian Anderson to handle the hot corner in the meantime, with Wiemer taking over in right for the time being.

A fourth round pick in 2020, Wiemer has shot up the Brewers’ prospect charts in recent years, and his .287/.368/.520 line over 174 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors last season showed he was knocking on the door of his first big league call up. While scouts raised concerns over his strikeouts and swing mechanics dating back to the draft, Wiemer’s raw power and athleticism have shone through and he was placed near the back of Keith Law’s recent top-100 prospects in all of baseball.

The move to shift Wilson to the 60-day IL was likely an easy one for the Brewers. The veteran lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year, so he is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2023 campaign. The Brewers signed him this winter to a one-year deal, but hold a club option on him for 2024.

The ACES client will make $850K in 2023 and the option is valued at $2.5MM with a $150K buyout; it’s a $1MM guarantee overall. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Milwaukee placed righty Jason Alexander on the 60-day injured list after he suffered a shoulder strain. He’ll be out until the end of May at the earliest.

Wilson will remain in the NL Central, as he had been a member of the Reds organization since he was dealt from the Yankees as part of a deal prior to the 2021 trade deadline.  Wilson ended up posting a 2.75 ERA over his 19 2/3 total innings with Cincinnati, but his elbow problems limited him to only 3 2/3 innings of work in 2022.  Wilson averaged 67 games and 61 innings per season from 2013-18, though he missed significant time in 2019 due to elbow soreness and then in 2021 due to a hamstring.

Through 11 MLB seasons, Wilson has a 3.41 career ERA, a solidly above-average 25.9% strikeout rate, and a subpar 10.7% walk rate.  The free passes are the only real weak link on Wilson’s resume, as the southpaw has done well to induce grounders and limit hard contact over his career.  The 35-year-old also has roughly identical career splits against both left-handed and right-handed batters.

This solid performance hasn’t prevented Wilson from bouncing around the league, as he has seen big league action with six different teams over the course of his career.  The Brewers are certainly hopeful of being the seventh, perhaps as early as this summer if Wilson is on the short end of the usual 14-16 month recovery period for Tommy John patients.  On the plus side, Wilson won’t require as much arm build-up since he’ll be working out of the bullpen, so it would seem like there’s a decent chance that he’ll be able to get on the mound before the 2023 campaign is over.

Hoby Milner is the only left-hander projected for Milwaukee’s Opening Day bullpen, and Alex Claudio, Thomas Pannone, and Robert Gasser are the southpaws in camp as non-roster invitees.  Aaron Ashby might have also factored into the Brew Crew’s relief plans if he wasn’t kept stretched out as rotation depth, but Ashby is now going to be out of action for several months due to shoulder inflammation.  While Wilson doesn’t provide any immediate help to the bullpen, he at least represents some left-handed relief depth down the road, while the Brewers figure out their plans for the start of the season.

Braves

• Charlie Morton, SP ($20MM option, no buyout)

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

• Daniel Vogelbach, 1B/DH ($1.5MM option, arbitration-eligible through 2024)

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

• John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

• Jean Segura, 2B ($17MM option, $1MM buyout)

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

• Aaron Nola, SP ($16MM option, $4.25MM buyout)

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

• Justin Wilson, RP ($1.22MM option, no buyout)

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

• Kolten Wong, 2B ($10MM option, $2MM buyout)

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

• Brad Boxberger, RP ($3MM option, $750K buyout)

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

• Scott Oberg, RP ($8MM option, no buyout)

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

• Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

• Danny Duffy, RP ($7MM option, no buyout)

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

• Daniel Hudson, RP ($6.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

• Hanser Alberto, INF ($2MM option, $250K buyout)

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

• Jimmy Nelson, RP ($1.1MM option, no buyout)

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

• Wil Myers, RF ($20MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

• Evan Longoria, 3B ($13MM option, $5MM buyout)

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.