This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• Jeff Hoffman signing with the Blue Jays after his agreements with the Orioles and the Braves fell apart, both due to concerns relating to his physical (2:05)
• The Giants signing Justin Verlander (12:00)
• The Marlins lose Braxton Garrett for the year (15:55)
• The Mariners signing Donovan Solano (26:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• With the Reds getting a new TV deal, can they sign Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar? (31:30)
• What do you make of the Nationals’ offseason so far? (37:55)
• What would a Kyle Tucker extension look like for the Cubs? (44:30)

Check out our past episodes!

• Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
• Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
• Winter Meetings Recap – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

January 7: The Giants are in agreement with Justin Verlander on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $15MM.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age-42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt that he’d be back on a one-year contract somewhere. It always seemed unlikely to continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros around his first half stay with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, leading Houston to let him walk.

Verlander took the ball 17 times and turned in a 5.48 earned run average through 90 1/3 innings. He had a pair of injured list stints — first in April for shoulder inflammation, then a two-month stretch between June and August related to a neck issue. Opponents tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 over his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander conceded after the season that he had come back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.

San Francisco believes there’s more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is only one year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s prior level. That pointed to regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found plenty of success with diminished swing-and-miss stuff that year.

Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already defied expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. Even if he’s not likely to repeat that kind of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotation arm and veteran presence in a staff that lost Blake Snell.

Logan Webb will be back to take the mantle as the team’s #1 starter. Verlander and Robbie Ray slot in the middle of the rotation as high-upside veterans who are trying to rebound from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big splash was a seven-year deal to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently liked the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.

San Francisco had roughly $208MM in luxury tax obligations coming into today, as calculated by RosterResource. This will push them to around $223MM, a little less than $20MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Verlander’s deal matches the $15MM salaries which veteran starters Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Sabol, who just celebrated his 27th birthday earlier this week, was a seventh-round pick by the Pirates back in 2019 who was plucked from the organization by San Francisco during the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. That locked Sabol into an Opening Day roster spot with the Giants for 2023, and he performed admirably for a player with just 25 games of Triple-A experience under his belt. While splitting time between catcher and left field in 2023, Sabol hit a respectable .235/.301/.394 (91 wRC+) in 344 trips to the plate.

Once the Giants were able to option him to the minors in 2024, however, Sabol was quickly shuttled back to Triple-A and only made a brief cameo in the majors last year. He hit well in those 11 games, however, with a .313/.421/.375 slash line in 38 trips to the plate while helping cover for a Patrick Bailey during a trip to the concussion-related injured list. When in the minors, Sabol struggled offensively with just a .246/.340/.388 slash line at Triple-A that was good for a wRC+ of just 85.

That lackluster performance at Triple-A seemingly made Sabol expendable as a catching depth option in the eyes of president of baseball operations Buster Posey and the Giants’ front office. The club recently claimed catcher Sam Huff off waivers from the Rangers, which may have made Sabol’s presence on the 40-man roster even less necessary. Huff is out of minor league options and can’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers but can still provide the club with depth behind Bailey and Tom Murphy throughout Spring Training or even be carried on the roster as a third catcher.

Going forward, the Giants will have one week to either work out a trade involving Sabol or expose him to waivers. As an optionable catching depth option, it would hardly be a surprise to see a catching-needy club take the opportunity to pluck Sabol off waivers in hopes of helping him rediscover something closer to the offensive form he showed in 2023, which would make him a roughly average offensive catcher in the majors. If Sabol were to pass through waivers unclaimed, the Giants would have the option of keeping him in the fold as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 season.

Verlander tossed only 90 1/3 innings last season, and he didn’t make his 2024 debut until April 19 after a shoulder problem limited him during Spring Training.  That relatively minor issue was overshadowed by a neck injury in June that ended up sidelining him for over two and a half months, and Verlander then struggled to an 8.10 ERA in 33 1/3 frames after being activated from the injured list in August.  Discussing his health situation with reporters in late September, Verlander said “I think I came back from the neck injury a little fast….I want to be an asset for this team.  And to do that, I needed to be able to pitch and find out where I’m at.  Obviously, the results have not been good.  But there’s nothing you can do besides trying to pitch.”

The good news is that Verlander is now “in great shape,” according to Morosi, as the future Hall-of-Famer heads into his age-42 season.  Verlander has a well-earned reputation as a workhorse over his outstanding career, yet inevitably, more health issues have developed as he has gotten older.  Verlander missed virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, he missed a couple of weeks during the 2022 season due to a calf injury, and a teres major strain kept him on the shelf for over the first month of the 2023 season.

The latter two of those injuries, to be fair, didn’t keep Verlander from tossing 337 1/3 total innings in 2022-23, plus 38 1/3 more frames in the playoffs.  His 2022 season in particular saw the righty deliver one of his best seasons, as he posted a 1.75 ERA while leading Houston to a World Series championship.  Verlander took a slight step backwards in 2023 but still had a 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 combined innings with the Mets and Astros.

Even at age 42, Verlander has plenty of upside, as he has shown that he can still be an effective arm as long as he is healthy.  Obviously his health status is more of a question mark considering what happened in 2024, yet on paper, even serious neck soreness probably isn’t as big of a red flag to teams as something like an elbow or shoulder injury.  It probably isn’t a surprise that Verlander’s market has started to heat up as we get later into the offseason, and teams have had more time to both evaluate his medicals and to monitor the pitching market as a whole after several other free agents and trade targets have come off the board.

Morosi didn’t cite any specific teams that were considering Verlander, though any number of clubs could be a fit due to the ever-present need for pitching.  It can be assumed that Verlander is prioritizing joining contending teams, and Morosi’s suggestion that Baltimore could be a fit might no longer apply, as Morosi’s report was filed before the Orioles announced their one-year deal with Charlie Morton.  The Astros are the only team known to have interest in Verlander’s services, as GM Dana Brown said in November that he’d “had conversations” with Verlander’s agent.

Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t sound like either side is quite ready to make a move this relatively early in the offseason.  As Brown noted earlier in the podcast, the Astros’ top priority at the moment is trying to re-sign Alex Bregman.  That high-profile pursuit is taking much of the team’s focus, even if Brown noted that the club is doing its due diligence on other potential moves (such as finding another third baseman) as well.

“If [Verlander] continues to work and he’s healthy, it’s going to be interesting to see where he goes and how much he gets.  But I’m sure there will be a bunch of teams calling the agent,” Brown said.  This is perhaps reading too much into wording, but Brown’s phrasing almost seemed to imply more of an arm’s length approach, as if the Astros were more curious spectators to Verlander’s market than active participants.

Verlander turns 42 in February, but he made it clear following the season that he wanted to return in 2025, and rebound from an injury-marred 2024 campaign.  The right-hander was limited to 90 1/3 innings due to a pair of injured-list stints prompted by shoulder injury and then neck discomfort.  The latter injury was particularly troublesome, as Verlander missed about 2.5 months due his neck issue and didn’t pitch well after he returned, leaving him feeling like he probably tried to come back too quickly.  The end result was a 5.48 ERA, the highest of Verlander’s career apart from the 7.11 ERA he posted over an 11 1/3-inning sample size in his very first Major League season in 2005.

It was just two seasons ago that Verlander won his third AL Cy Young Award, and in 2023, Verlander was still solid with a 3.22 ERA over 162 1/3 innings with the Mets and Astros.  A case can certainly be made that Verlander has more to contribute if healthy, and the righty has already defied Father Time once by delivering that last Cy Young campaigns after a Tommy John surgery cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.

That said, nobody would be surprised if age and injuries simply caught up to Verlander, and 2023 was really his last hurrah as a productive starting pitcher.  As Brown noted, Verlander’s track record alone will lead to interest from multiple teams, but is understandable if the Astros were ready to move on rather than risk being left holding the bag if Verlander declined further.

Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti are lined up as the top four of Houston’s rotation, and the in-house candidates for the fifth starter’s role all come with big health-related question marks.  Lance McCullers Jr. has missed the last two seasons due to injuries, Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched since May 2023 due to a Tommy John surgery and a couple of setbacks, J.P. France missed most of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, and Cristian Javier had a TJ surgery last June and isn’t guaranteed to pitch at all in 2025.  Adding a reliable veteran arm to the mix certainly makes sense for Houston, though Verlander might not fit the bill given his own health status.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.

Verlander, 41, missed a substantial portion of the season due to shoulder and neck injuries. Houston reinstated him from the injured list in late August after an absence of more than two months owing to said neck issues, and while he was solid in his return effort (two runs in five innings versus the Red Sox), his season quickly snowballed thereafter. The three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer was torched for a catastrophic 8.89 ERA over his final six starts, which included individual games that saw him yield four, five, six and eight runs. Manager Joe Espada tells the Astros beat that the conversation with Verlander was “very easy,” crediting him for being “a true pro” about the decision (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

One notable return to the lineup, however, is Yordan Alvarez. The Houston slugger has been out of action for more than a week due to a sprained knee, but he’s in the lineup hitting second and serving as Houston’s designated hitter. Espada tells the Astros beat that Alvarez is not 100% and isn’t likely to run at full speed or slide (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, Alvarez’s game-changing power and general excellence at the plate — he hit .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers in 147 games — are enough that the ’Stros will live with those shortcomings to get his bat into the order.

The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound to start Game 1 opposite Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. They’ve yet to announce the second and third starters for the potential three-game set. Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are all on the playoff roster, as are relievers Bryan Abreu, Caleb Ferguson, Josh Hader, Bryan King, Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly.

On the position player side of things, the ’Stros are going with catchers Victor Caratini, Yainer Diaz and Cesar Salazar; infielders Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Jeremy Pena and Jon Singleton; and outfielders Jason Heyward, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez, listed as an outfielder, seems quite likely to serve as the DH for this series at least, given the physical limitations outlined by Espada.

Verlander described the process of trying to get fully right in the aftermath of this injury as the most difficult of his career, “because sometimes it’s just one thing that makes it click.”  With just one regular-season start left before the playoffs, Verlander acknowledged that he might not be part of the Astros’ postseason rotation.  While “it’s not my decision” to make, Verlander noted that “I was away for two months and all these guys were pitching fantastic.  Seen a bunch of guys really come into their own.”

More from around the AL West…

• Kirby Yates will be 38 on Opening Day 2025, and the veteran reliever told Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News that “I’ve got two more years that I could probably pitch at an effective level.”  Whether or not this translates to a two-year deal remains to be seen this winter, but Yates has certainly helped his case with a very impressive season as the Rangers’ closer.  A return to Texas would be welcomed, as Yates said “I hope those talks happen.  I’ve enjoyed it here, I think it’s a great fit, my family’s liked it here, it’s an easy transition for me.  If it works out, it works out.  If it doesn’t, I’ll always be thankful for the Rangers organization, Rangers fans and everybody that’s treated me the way they have.”  Staying with Texas would check off a couple of important boxes on Yates’ offseason wish list, as he noted that he’d ideally like to pitch near his home and family in Arizona, as well as relatively close to his extended family in his native Hawaii.  Yates has an 1.23 ERA and 31 saves over 58 2/3 innings for the Rangers this season, more than delivering on the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed last offseason.
• The Angels activated Kevin Pillar from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and optioned infielder Charles Leblanc to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Pillar had been out of action since September 6 due to a left thumb sprain, and will now return for what will probably be the final games of his 12-year Major League career.  Pillar marked his activation with his eighth homer of the season in Friday’s 9-7 loss to the Astros, and the veteran is hitting .242/.300/.402 over 291 combined PA with the White Sox and Angels.

Verlander opened the season on the 15-day IL after some shoulder discomfort popped up during spring training and slowed his progression through the annual exhibition season. He was activated on April 19 and made 10 starts out of the Houston rotation before heading back to the 15-day injured list, this time with a neck issue that has kept him out a fair bit longer than originally anticipated.

At the time of his placement on the IL, Verlander noted that he’d been dealing with the issue for weeks but added: “If this was playoff time, I’d like to think I’d be out there.” Despite that confidence, Verlander wound up missing more than two months with the injury.

When healthy, Verlander has been a solid but not dominant piece of the Houston rotation. He’s pitched 57 innings with a 3.95 earned run average, displaying a lower-than-usual 21.3% strikeout rate and an uncharacteristic susceptibility to home runs (1.74 HR/9). Verlander has seen a slight but hardly major bump in his homer-to-flyball ratio, but the larger problem is that he’s simply allowing more flyballs than ever before. This year’s 57% flyball mark trounces both the career 42% mark he carried into the season and last year’s 44.8% mark.

Even if Verlander doesn’t recapture his Cy Young form this season, the current version of the right-hander is still plenty helpful for an Astros rotation that has been stretched thin by a massive wave of injuries. Verlander’s strikeout rate is only about a percentage point shy of average, and his command remains quite strong (7.1% walk rate). He was averaging just over 5 2/3 innings per start prior to his second IL placement of the season.

Verlander will step back onto a starting staff that also includes Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. The plan for Houston moving forward seems to be to adopt a six-man rotation. That will help to mitigate concerns regarding Verlander’s neck as well as workload concerns for Blanco, who’s already set a new career-high for innings pitched, and Arrighetti, who’ll likely establish a new career-high during his next start.

Rotation depth beyond the six presently healthy starters in Houston is scarce. Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season. J.P. France underwent shoulder surgery. The ’Stros recently announced that righty Luis Garcia will not pitch this season. He’d been expected to return in the second half after undergoing his own Tommy John procedure early in the 2023 campaign, but did not recover as quickly as hoped. Lance McCullers Jr., who underwent flexor surgery last summer, was also expected to be a second-half reinforcement but is now similarly viewed as unlikely to return in 2024.

The extended length of Verlander’s stint on the injured list has effectively eliminated the possibility that he’ll be able to trigger the vesting player option in his contract. Had Verlander stayed healthy enough to reach 140 innings this year, he’d have triggered the right to pick up a $35MM player option for the 2025 season. The Astros would only have been on the hook for half of that sum, with the Mets covering the other $17.5MM as part of the trade that sent Verlander from Queens to Houston last summer.

Now, Verlander will simply become a free agent at season’s end. So long as he plans to continue pitching — he’s previously said he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s — there’ll likely be mutual interest in a reunion, but it won’t be as straightforward as Verlander picking up that pricey player option that’ll no longer come into play.

Garcia set out on a rehab assignment in late June, which is right in line with the standard 13-14 month recovery from Tommy John surgery. The stint did not go as planned. Houston pulled him off the assignment around the All-Star Break after he had a tough time bouncing back between outings. The Astros planned to send Garcia back out shortly after the deadline, but he reported more soreness coming out of a bullpen session and was shut back down.

Neither setback seems indicative of a long-term concern. They’ve been enough to keep Garcia from logging the necessary workload to get himself into MLB game shape before year’s end though. Early in the year, GM Dana Brown had pointed to Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. as potential late-season returnees to strengthen the rotation depth. Neither player will make a big league appearance in 2024. McCullers also battled lingering arm soreness and is expected to miss the entire season.

Those injuries — paired with this year’s season-ending arm procedures for Cristian Javier and José Urquidy — made it necessary for Brown and his staff to add a starter at the deadline. They did so by sending a three-player package headlined by Jake Bloss to the Blue Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. It was a hefty price, but Kikuchi has had a fantastic start to his Houston tenure. The hard-throwing southpaw has allowed only five runs in 16 2/3 innings across three appearances. He has fanned 24 of 66 opponents while generating swinging strikes at a massive 15.3% clip.

Kikuchi isn’t the only midseason reinforcement. The Astros have been without Justin Verlander since the middle of June because of neck discomfort. Espada told the beat that Verlander will take the ball on Wednesday against the Red Sox (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). The future Hall of Famer tossed four innings and logged 57 pitches in a rehab start at Double-A Corpus Christi last Thursday.

The Astros evidently don’t feel he’d benefit from one more minor league start and will give him his next appearance at Minute Maid Park. Houston has pushed their lead on the Mariners in the AL West to four games. If they lock down a playoff berth, Verlander would join Kikuchi, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and potentially Ronel Blanco in the mix for postseason starts.

Verlander will come up well short of 140 innings this season, meaning he will not unlock a $35MM player option. He’ll be a free agent this offseason, as will Kikuchi. Garcia remains under arbitration control through 2026. Since he didn’t pitch this season, he’ll likely match this year’s $1.875MM salary. Valdez and Urquidy are eligible for arbitration as well (though the latter is a non-tender candidate). Brown and Blanco are still in their pre-arbitration seasons, while Javier will make $10MM next year and is under contract through 2027.

While things are looking promising for Verlander, Luis Garcia is more of a question mark.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote (via X) that as of Friday, Garcia hadn’t yet resumed throwing since he was shut down due to soreness over two weeks ago.  This is the second time Garcia has hit a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and since Garcia went under the knife in May 2023, a normal rehab timeline would’ve had him ready to return to the majors by this point over 15 months past his procedure date.  Though the Astros have said Garcia might return as a reliever rather than as a starter, he is running short on time to fully ramp up his readiness to rejoin Houston’s pitching staff in any capacity.

More from around the American League…

• Twins athletic trainer Nick Paparesta updated reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) about several injured Minnesota players on Saturday, including Byron Buxton and Chris Paddack.  Buxton received a cortisone shot in his inflamed right hip and recently worked out in a pool, so Paparesta feels “we’re kind of heading in the right direction.”  This comes as a relief given Buxton’s long history of injury problems, including a more serious hip issue in 2022 that Paparesta feels may have created scar tissue related to Buxton’s current discomfort.  As for Paddack, he is set to undergo an MRI on August 27, which will be his second scan since a left forearm strain sent him to the 15-day injured list on July 17.  More will be known on Paddack’s timeline if the next MRI comes back clean, and he has already started playing games of catch in preparation to return to Minnesota’s staff before the season is over.
• Three of the Rangers’ injured veteran starters took steps in their recoveries over the weekend, as Max Scherzer threw a bullpen session today and Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray each threw three-inning simulated games on Saturday.  Gray seems to be the closest to returning, as he told MLB.com that he could return as a reliever during the Rangers’ series with the Pirates that begins tomorrow, if he isn’t lined up for a proper start during a series with the Guardians that gets underway Friday.  A right groin strain sent Gray to the 15-day IL on July 29, while deGrom could begin a Double-A rehab assignment this week in his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2023.  Scherzer hasn’t pitched since July 30 due to shoulder fatigue, and Texas manager Bruce Bochy said it hasn’t yet been decided if Scherzer will also embark on a rehab assignment next, or if he’ll first take part in a live batting practice session.
• Tarik Skubal had another quality start tonight in the Tigers’ 3-2 win over the Yankees, as the star southpaw limited New York to one run (on three hits and four walks) over six innings of work.  Skubal is up to a career-high 155 1/3 innings pitched, and manager A.J. Hinch told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and other reporters that Sunday “could very well be his last start on regular rest” this season.  Since Detroit is all but out of the wild card race, the team has no real reason to put too many extra miles on Skubal’s arm, though naturally the team isn’t going to shut him down completely as he pursues the AL Cy Young Award.

If all goes well, Verlander would likely be activated for the start of the Astros’ series with the Orioles that begins on August 22.  Verlander would become the sixth member of a six-man rotation Houston is planning to deploy during a busy stretch of the schedule, as after receiving three off-days within the first 15 days of August, the Astros then play every day from August 16 through September 2.  Assuming Verlander returns in his usual top-of-the-rotation form, he’ll be a giant boost to a Houston team that is battling the Mariners for the AL West title, and will again be looking to make another deep playoff run.  Between this neck problem and a season-opening bout of shoulder inflammation, Verlander has been limited to 57 innings in his 19th Major League season, but he has a solid 3.95 ERA when available to pitch.

More from around the AL West…

• Julio Rodriguez hasn’t played July 21 due to a high ankle sprain, but the Mariners outfielder has been taking part in some moderate-intensity running exercises as part of his recovery process.  Manager Scott Servais told MLB.com and other media earlier this week that Rodriguez’s injury is viewed as a day-to-day situation by the team, as Rodriguez might be activated from the 10-day injured list without the need for a rehab assignment.  “The swinging really isn’t the issue, from what [Rodriguez] said.  It’s just more of the running and trying to get up to speed and taking the turns, things like that,” Servais noted.  As such, Seattle could try using Rodriguez as a designated hitter if the team wants to take it easy on his ankle.  The uncertain nature of high ankle sprains and the lack of a timetable makes it unclear when J-Rod might be back in action, but it could technically be as early as this coming week if he shows quick improvement and is able to run passably well.
• Jacob deGrom threw a live batting practice on Thursday, with Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy telling reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that deGrom will have another live BP session during the Rangers’ upcoming August 12-14 series in Boston.  This is the first time deGrom had faced live hitters during his rehab from a June 2023 Tommy John surgery, and the four-time All-Star remains on pace with the standard 13-14 month recovery timeline.  Since he’ll have a third bullpen session and then a minor league rehab assignment, deGrom might not return to the Texas roster before the end of August, but the veteran should be able to log some big league innings before 2024 is out, and gain some peace of mind about his health heading into the offseason.

Rehab from that surgery was expected to leave him out of action for the first half of the 2024 season, though that timeline was further delayed when the club paused his throwing program last month due to lingering arm soreness following his bullpen sessions. Club brass subsequently indicated the right-hander may be able to contribute out of the bullpen for the September stretch run this year despite the setback, though even at the time it was noted that McCullers was seeking a second opinion regarding the setback.

The right-hander seemingly has not resumed a throwing program since being shut down early last month, and with so much time off would surely need to restart his throwing program from scratch in order to get ready for MLB games. That seems like a tall order with less than two months remaining in the regular season, and it’s ultimately not yet clear if McCullers is being shut down due to a significant setback or if he has simply run out of time to work his way back to a return in the majors this year. Regardless of the specifics behind McCullers’s situation, the right-hander will now look toward a return in 2025 on the heels of back-to-back lost seasons.

It’s an especially frustrating situation given the 30-year-old’s considerable talent when healthy enough to take the mound. The right-hander owns a career 3.48 ERA in 718 2/3 innings of work since he first made his big league debut back in 2015, and his peripheral numbers look even better. His career 3.35 FIP is nothing short of excellent, and he’s struck out at least 24.7% of batters faced in every season of his career including a 26.9% rate since the start of the 2016 season. He’s also a decorated postseason hurler for the club, with a 3.47 postseason ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work across 12 playoff series. That talent earned McCullers a five-year, $85MM extension prior to the start of the 2021 season, but more than half of that extension has now come and gone with the right-hander having thrown just 47 2/3 innings total in the regular season since it began in 2022.

McCullers is far from the only Astros hurler done for the year, as he’ll now join Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier in looking toward the 2025 for their returns to the mound after both Urquidy and Javier underwent Tommy John surgery back in June. Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia are also on the injured list, but both of them are expected to pitch in the majors again this year. Verlander, in fact, felt good following a 37 pitch bullpen session earlier today and (according to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) told reporters that he expects to return to the majors after just two rehab starts amid a neck strain that’s kept him out of the rotation since mid-June.

Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, and his first attempt at a rehab assignment lasted two outings — an inning with the Astros’ rookie ball team in late June, and then 1 1/3 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi in early July.  He was then held back from any more game action due to some physical discomfort and trouble bouncing back between pitching appearances.  The Astros were slowly ramping him back up, and after Garcia’s live batting practice session last Tuesday seemed to go without a hitch, plans were made for another rehab assignment.

Instead, some questions now have to be asked about when exactly Garcia will be able to properly get back onto the mound in the wake of this latest setback.  Though Garcia will require a pretty lengthy rehab stint when he is able to pitch, the Astros have said Garcia could potentially return as a reliever.  This would require less build-up than rehabbing to work as a starting pitcher, so Garcia could make it back a bit quicker and pitch out of Houston’s bullpen later in the season or into a potential postseason run.  Garcia would therefore be able to contribute to the 2024 team in some fashion, yet with still a decent length of time remaining in the regular season, the Astros will certainly first see if Garcia can indeed get healthy and ready enough to return to his customary starting role.

Garcia established himself as a solid member of the starting five when he posted a 3.60 ERA over 312 2/3 innings in 2021-22, helping the Astros to two AL pennants in those years and the World Series title in 2022.  Given the usual timeframe for Tommy John rehab, his projected return in the second half of this season gained extra import considering how the Astros have been ravaged by pitching injuries.

Justin Verlander has twice been sidelined — first with some shoulder inflammation that delayed his season debut until April 19, and then a bout of neck stiffness that has kept him off the mound since June 9.  The good news is that Verlander is inching towards a return, as Espada said the star righty will face live batters during a batting practice session on Sunday.  Verlander is tentatively then planned to begin a rehab assignment, with Espada specifying that Verlander will need multiple starts to build up his arm to return to starting duty.

Penn Murfee is another pitcher getting ready to face live batters, as the reliever will be throwing a live BP session at the Astros’ Spring Training complex this weekend.  Murfee told Kawahara and company that the plan is for him to begin his own rehab assignment after throwing three live BP sessions.

Debuting in the majors in 2022, Murfee made a quick impression by posting a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 relief innings for the Mariners.  He followed up that great rookie year with a 1.29 ERA in his first 14 innings of the 2023 campaign before undergoing a UCL-related surgery in June 2023, and Seattle then opted to place him on waivers at the start of the offseason.  This led to Murfee going to the Mets and then the Braves on a pair of waiver claims, a new contract with the Braves after Atlanta non-tendered him, and then another waiver claim to the Astros in late March.  If Murfee’s rehab goes smoothly and he is able to recapture his old form, he presents Houston with an intriguing bullpen addition for the final stretch.