Smoak’s wife, Kristin, shared a heartwarming video of him returning home to surprise his daughters (Twitter link), calling it a “terribly tough decision” and noting the “amazing” support and understanding the Giants provided throughout the situation. Kristin Smoak later tweeted that the family has been “blown away by the genuine kindness and understanding we have received” from NPB fans.

A few more notes out of Japan and South Korea…

• The Orix Buffaloes announced this week that they’ve signed right-hander Glenn Sparkman to a contract for the remainder of the season (Yahoo Japan link). He’ll take the roster spot of righty Brandon Dickson, who recently returned to the U.S. to sign a minor league deal with the Cardinals. Sparkman was on a minor league deal with the Twins earlier this year but was released in mid-May. He’s spent parts of four straight seasons in the Majors (2017-20), including a 2019 campaign in which he racked up 136 1/3 innings for the Royals. Sparkman has just a 5.99 ERA in 180 1/3 MLB frames, but he carries a career 2.88 ERA in 378 2/3 minor league innings — including a 3.51 mark in parts of four Triple-A seasons.
• The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve placed designated hitter/catcher/first baseman David Freitas on waivers (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). They’re now in the mix for a new bat to add to the lineup. Freitas, 32, was the Heroes’ primary designated hitter but slashed a fairly tepid .259/.297/.374 with two homers and 10 doubles in 148 plate appearances. The former Braves, Mariners and Brewers catcher posted a ridiculous .381/.461/.561 line in 382 Triple-A plate appearances back in 2019 and has a generally strong track record at that level, but he’s yet to produce much in the game’s top leagues in North America or South Korea.

DECEMBER 29: Free-agent first baseman Justin Smoak is nearing a contract with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. Smoak will earn a guaranteed $6MM to $7MM if the deal goes through.

The 34-year-old Smoak divided last season between the Brewers and Giants (San Francisco, not Yomiuri) and posted a brutal .162/.250/.361 line with five home runs in 132 plate appearances. Smoak’s strikeout rate (31.8) was the second-highest figure of his career and a 10-plus percent increase over the number he recorded in 2019 with the Blue Jays. Considering his weak production from 2020, Smoak would have been hard-pressed to approach his agreement with Yomiuri in value had he stayed in the majors in 2021, so it’s no surprise the switch hitter is on his way to Japan to collect a larger paycheck and perhaps rebuild his stock for big league teams.

If this is the last we’ve seen of Smoak in MLB, though, he’ll go down as someone who had an up-and-down tenure at the game’s highest level. The 11th overall pick of the Rangers in 2008 and once among Baseball America’s top 15 prospects, Smoak has seen major league action with five teams (the Mariners are the other). Smoak was at his best in Toronto from 2017-18, when he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs and a 128 wRC+ across 1,231 trips to the plate. He hasn’t come close to matching that form since then, however.

Sept. 21: The Giants have designated first baseman Justin Smoak for assignment, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group was among those to report. They reinstated outfielder Alex Dickerson from the paternity list in a corresponding move.

This is the second time this month a team has cut Smoak, whom the Brewers designated Sept. 3 and then released on the 8th. Milwaukee signed Smoak, a three-time 20-home run hitter, to a $5MM guarantee last offseason off a so-so campaign with the Blue Jays. However, the switch-hitting 33-year-old only slashed .186/.262/.381 with five homers in 126 plate appearances before the Brewers cut ties with him.

Smoak may have been worth a low-risk shot for San Francisco, but he also couldn’t get back on track with the Giants, albeit over a small sample size of plate appearances. He wound up taking six trips to the plate and going without a hit as a Giant.

12:32pm: The Giants are designating infielder Pablo Sandoval for assignment today, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). The move will create space for fellow veteran Justin Smoak, who signed with the Giants yesterday.

Sandoval, 34, lasted just two and a half seasons in Boston under an ill-fated five-year deal but surprised many with a resurgent showing upon returning to the Giants after being cut loose. From 2018-19, Sandoval tallied 548 plate appearances over 200 games with his original club, hitting .259/.311/.466 with 23 homers, 33 doubles and a triple. The pendulum swung in the opposite direction in 2020, however, as Sandoval has logged a miserable .220/.278/.268 slash through 90 trips to the plate.

The 33-year-old Smoak hasn’t exactly fared well in 2020 himself, hitting just .186/.262/.381 in 126 plate appearances with the Brewers before being released. Even amid those struggles, however, Smoak has shown much more power at the dish and a better walk rate. He’s been more prone to strikeouts than Sandoval but gives the Giants a better defensive option at first base and more pop on days he serves as designated hitter or a late-game pinch-hitter.

With Sandoval hitting well in 2018-19 and Hunter Pence returning after a resurgent year with his hometown Rangers, Giants fans might’ve had visions of one last productive run from the fan-favorite duo that fueled so much of their “Even Year” dynasty from 2010-14. Both Pence and the Panda struggled mightily in what now looks to have been their San Francisco farewell tours, however, leaving their futures within the game somewhat up in the air.

Had the Giants been languishing in the NL West cellar, perhaps they’d have kept Sandoval around to close out the season. San Francisco, though, has rattled off five straight wins to surge back to current possession of the No. 7 playoff seed in this year’s expanded postseason format. It’s in some ways reminiscent of last year’s July hot streak. Last year’s club wasn’t able to sustain the pace and convert that hot streak into a playoff berth, but the 2020 Giants will look to parlay their current 8-2 stretch into the organization’s first playoff berth since 2016.

1:01PM: The Giants have agreed to sign free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Smoak was released by the Brewers yesterday.

Smoak came to Milwaukee on a one-year contract worth $5MM in guaranteed money ($4MM in salary, and $1MM on a buyout of a $5.5MM club option for 2021).  Over 126 plate appearances this season, Smoak simply never got on track, hitting .186/.262/.381 with five home runs and eventually becoming an expendable piece.  The Brewers will eat the remainder of the salary owed to Smoak this season, minus the prorated minimum salary that will be paid by the Giants for however much time Smoak sees in the big leagues over the final two-plus weeks.

The 22-21 Giants are currently in possession of a wild card berth, in part due to major contributions from such unheralded acquisitions as Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson.  2020 numbers aside, Smoak has more of a proven track record, and was an All-Star as recently as the 2017 season.  His numbers have been on the decline since that breakout year, though his pedestrian 2019 statistics were underlined by some very impressive Statcast numbers that have generally not carried over to this season.

A change of scenery could perhaps be what Smoak needs to spark his bat, and on paper, a revived Smoak would help the Giants replace the production they expected from Hunter Pence — another veteran who had a tough 2020 season and was recently released.  Smoak could occasionally spell Brandon Belt at first base and also see some time at DH.  Since Mauricio Dubon has now essentially become San Francisco’s full-time center fielder, it creates a bit more room for Smoak to join Pablo Sandoval as the team’s primary backup infielders, with Belt, Solano, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria starting around the diamond and Wilmer Flores also seeing a good chunk of time at first base, second base, and DH.

Solid peripherals likely kept Smoak employed, as if you looked at his career 11.6 BB%, 23.6 K%, and .190 ISO, there ’s potential for a potent bat there. Even during a down 2019 season, he logged a 15.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, and .198 ISO. Add in a below-average .223 BABIP and it’s easy to see why the Brewers gambled on him. The BABIP didn’t bounce back, however, and the walk and strikeout rates both went the wrong way.

Maybe the thinking wasn’t misguided, but the results simply didn’t pan out as hoped. The Brewers released Smoak today after he passed through waivers, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). He was DFA’ed on September 3rd when the Brewers put in a claim for Daniel Vogelbach.

Vogelbach’s struggles were at least equal to Smoak’s this season, but whether the Brewers see something in Vogelbach or have simply seen enough of Smoak, Smoak’s tenure in Milwaukee is now over. In 126 plate appearances, Smoak hit just .186/.262/.381 with a handful of home runs. Smoak’s major-league career may not yet be over, but he’ll likely need to accept a minor-league contract to keep going.

The 11th overall draft choice of the 2008 draft, Smoak played for the Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Brewers across 11 seasons. For his career, he owns a triple slash of .229/.322/.419 with 196 home runs.

3:23pm: The Brewers have designated first baseman Justin Smoak for assignment and acquired 1B/DH Daniel Vogelbach from the Blue Jays, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

The switch-hitting Smoak had a couple very good years with the Blue Jays from 2017-18, but his production went downward in ’19 during his final campaign in Toronto. The Brewers, hoping for a bounce-back effort, signed the 33-year-old Smoak to a $5MM guarantee last offseason, but the deal didn’t pay dividends for the club. Smoak logged an ugly .186/.262/.381 line with five home runs in 126 plate appearances this year before the Brewers designated him. Thanks in large part to Smoak, first base has been a black hole for Milwaukee, though Jedd Gyorko (who has totaled the second-most starts there for the club) has posted terrific production over a small sample.

Vogelbach could now wind up in the mix at first for the Brewers, but he hasn’t lined up there at all this year between Seattle and Toronto, instead playing all of his games as a DH. While Vogelbach was a Mariners All-Star a year ago, his numbers plummeted in the second half then, and he certainly hasn’t offered a DH-caliber bat this season. Between the M’s and Jays, he hit an abysmal .088/.246/.211 with two home runs in 69 plate appearances. Toronto designated Vogelbach after four at-bats as a member of the team.

To start off, it’s worth noting how Smoak got to this point. He’s a former standout prospect who has seldom matched the hype. The switch-hitting 33-year-old owns a mediocre .231/.324/.420 line with a 104 wRC+ (the league-average mark is 100) and 6.2 fWAR across 4,618 plate appearances. However, Smoak did somewhat begin to realize his potential in recent years. He put up in the best years of his career from 2017-18, a 1,231-PA stretch in which he batted .256/.353/.495 (128 wRC+) with 63 of his 191 home runs and posted almost all of his lifetime fWAR (5.3).

On the heels of his two consecutive strong seasons, there wasn’t reason to think Smoak would fall off in 2019. Unfortunately for him and the Blue Jays, it happened. He took 500 trips to the plate and could only muster a line of .208/.342/.406 (101 wRC+). Smoak did amass another 22 homers, but his overall production (0.2 fWAR) rendered him a replacement player. So, if you’re a Brewers fan who isn’t expecting much from Smoak in 2020, that’s understandable. However, it does appear that he deserved better a season ago, which could bode well for this year.

Despite his so-so output in his last campaign in Toronto, Smoak did manage much better strikeout and walk numbers than the typical hitter. He drew a free pass 15.8 percent of the time, almost doubling the MLB mean of 8.5 percent, and struck out in 21.2 percent of plate appearances (the league average was 23 percent). Additionally, he upped his hard-hit rate by almost 9 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. Smoak also swung and missed in just 8.9 percent of PA (the normal hitter checked in at 11.1) and rated as one of Statcast’s favorite under-the-radar offensive players from last season. He ranked in the league’s 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), its 76th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495, crushing his actual mark of .406) and its 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (.366, far outdoing his real wOBA of .323).

None of the above guarantees Smoak will rebound in 2020. That said, when you combine his bottom-line production from 2018-19 with his under-the-hood numbers from last year, he looks like a logical bounce-back candidate for this season. From the low-budget Brewers’ perspective, it was worthwhile to take a chance on Smoak.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

Kendrick is already back in the fold, rejoining the World Series champions on a one-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money ($4MM in 2020 salary, and either a $2.25MM buyout of a mutual option for 2021, or $6.5MM in 2021 if both sides exercise that option).  The versatile Kendrick spent the majority of his time as a first baseman in 2019, though he also saw action at both second base and third base. Those other two infield positions are now in a state of flux, what with Anthony Rendon gone to the Angels and Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera currently free agents, so Washington could prefer to deploy Kendrick around the infield rather than commit him to a larger portion of the first base playing time.

Zimmerman, of course, is a free agent himself, though the longtime District stalwart has indicated that he will either return to the Nationals on a year-to-year basis or potentially retire.  “Both he and the Nationals remain willing to negotiate a cheap, one-year contract,” Dougherty writes, and “about $4MM has been floated as a price the sides could agree on.”

It seems to be more or less just a matter of time before Zimmerman officially returns to the fold for his 16th season in a Nats jersey, and his presence likely indicates that D.C. will stick with a platoon situation at first base.  The club “ultimately decided that the price was too high” for Smoak, whose one-year deal with Milwaukee is worth $5MM in guaranteed money.  It wasn’t a hefty figure, though perhaps too much for a Nationals team that is looking for a platoon partner rather than more of a full-time option like Smoak.

Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland, Greg Bird, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Neil Walker are a few of the left-handed or switch-hitting first base options on the open market, though Adams represents a known quantity for the Nats.  Over 610 plate appearances since joining the Nationals in August 2018, Adams has hit 38 homers with a .240/.302/.485 slash line.  Long a force against right-handed pitching, Adams’ numbers against righties dipped in everything but the slugging department last season, though Dougherty said that Adams was bothered with some shoulder problems.  Washington declined its end of Adams’ $4MM mutual option for 2020, making the 31-year-old into a free agent.

If the Nationals can find a power bat at another position, Dougherty writes that the team could simply just go with Zimmerman and Kendrick as the all right-handed first base platoon, given Kendrick’s solid numbers against same-sided pitching.  The Nats continue to be one of the favorites to land Josh Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman, and, should Donaldson sign elsewhere, there have also been whispers that D.C. could try to acquire Kris Bryant from the Cubs.  Both Donaldson and Bryant are also right-handed bats, though with either of them playing third base, the Nationals could then explore adding a multi-positional left-handed bench bat, or one that could share time at second base with rookie Carter Kieboom or the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo.

9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.

9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.

This is the latest in a string of short-term acquisitions for the Milwaukee organization, which has almost completely turned over its infield over the past six weeks. The club has installed Eric Sogard and Luis Urias in the middle infield mix while picking up Ryon Healy and now Smoak to help cover the corners. Keston Hiura, of course, will factor prominently into the mix as well after impressing with the bat in his rookie season.

Beyond that, president of baseball ops David Stearns said after this week’s signing of Avisail Garcia that Ryan Braun will likely see some time at first base in 2020 as well (Twitter link via Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal). It’s a layered collection of veterans and young upside hitters, and  the precise manner in which playing time will be sorted remains to be determined in Spring Training.

Smoak made a long-awaited break-out at the plate in 2017 and followed that up with a strong ’18 effort. In combination, he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs in 1,231 turns with the bat in those campaigns. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in the just-completed season. The switch-hitting 33-year-old is coming off of a .208/.342/.406 effort, but the underlying metrics on his season are far more interesting than his surface-level .208 batting average.

In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. As explored here at MLBTR back in September, Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, indicating there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department. He also drew walks at an exceptionally healthy 15.8% rate while striking out just 21.2% of the time.

As highlighted in that September exploration of his odd season, Smoak chased pitches outside the strike zone less than nearly any hitter in MLB, and he ranked among the game’s best in terms of pitches per plate appearance. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who should make opposing pitchers work even if he continues to hit for a low batting average. And, supposing Smoak can turn balls in play into base hits at an increased rate — his .223 BABIP was certainly an outlier — he could bounce right back into being a productive hitter.

Milwaukee undeniably lost some key pieces this winter, with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departing for four-year deals with the White Sox and Reds, respectively. Eric Thames, meanwhile, was bought out and sent into the free-agent market. Smoak will in many ways replace Thames at a slightly reduced cost — likely bringing better glovework to the table but lesser production against right-handed pitching.

Smoak will come in at $1.5MM less than Thames would’ve earned — a slight savings that exemplifies the Brewers’ risk-averse mentality and focus on the margins when building out a roster. This depth-forward approach both safeguards against injury and allows for slightly reduced workloads that, in theory, lessen the overall risk of injury and keeps their position players fresher. It also leads to a great deal of turnover, which can be frustrating for fans at times but has resulted in three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances.

A fractured right wrist and a strained oblique limited Encarnacion to only 109 games and 486 plate appearances in 2019, his lowest totals in either category since the 2010 season.  When Encarnacion was healthy, however, he still wielded a formidable bat, hitting .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers for the Mariners and Yankees.  Encarnacion turns 37 in January and would likely be used mostly as a DH in Toronto, owing to both his age, the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface, and the Jays’ desire to see what they have in first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

With a market likely limited to American League teams and a relative lack of DH openings among those teams, Encarnacion could likely be had on a one-year deal, which is surely attractive to a rebuilding Jays team.  Bringing Encarnacion back would also undoubtedly be well-received by Toronto’s fans, as Encarnacion was a very popular figure while hitting 239 homers (the third-highest total in club history) for the Jays from 2009-16.

Smoak was another fan favorite for his five solid seasons with the Jays, most notably his 38-homer outburst in 2017.  Despite being perhaps the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2019, Smoak still managed a slightly above-average (101 wRC+ and OPS+) offensive showing of .208/.342/.406 with 22 homers over 500 PA.  We haven’t heard much news on the 33-year-old Smoak this winter, though there was some indication after the season that the Blue Jays were thinking about a potential reunion as they weighed their first base options.

What could hurt both Encarnacion and Smoak, however, is that they are only first basemen, whereas GM Ross Atkins has a stated preference for first base “alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well.”  Tsutsugo has an advantage in this regard, as he has primarily played outfield for the last several seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars while also having some first base and third base experience in his past.  While Tsutsugo isn’t considered to be particularly adept defensively at any position, the Blue Jays might not mind since he’d be slated for a good chunk of DH time anyway.

The 28-year-old Tsutsugo has an impressive .285/.382/.528 slash line and 205 home runs over exactly 4000 PA during his 10 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Major League teams have until December 19 to negotiate a contract with Tsutsugo, and clubs will then have to pay an additional posting fee (as determined by the size of the contract) to the BayStars under the MLB/NPB posting system.

As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”

Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki’s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.

The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.

Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.

To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.

Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.

A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.

It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.

Here’s more from the division…

• Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun profiles Justin Smoak’s evolution into a clubhouse leader and mentor for the Blue Jays’ wave of upstart talents. Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the teammates who effuse praise for Smoak and the impact he’s already had on their young careers. “He’s a guy who has a relationship with every single guy in this locker room, no matter if they’re an up-and-down guy or if they’re playing every day,” Biggio says of Smoak. “It just shows how much he emphasizes being a good teammate and it just shows the kind of person he is overall.” Smoak fondly reminisces of the 2015-16 playoff runs and discusses how he and his family have come to consider Toronto a second home, though he also sounds like a veteran who recognizes the writing on the wall. MLBTR examined the pending free agent’s 2019 season earlier Friday.
• The Rays are likely to activate right-hander Yonny Chirinos from the injured list Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Chirinos has been a starter for most of the year (a solid one at that), but he’ll work as a reliever for at the least the initial part of his return, according to Topkin. The Rays have been without Chirinos since they placed him on the IL on Aug. 5 with an inflamed middle finger on his pitching hand.
• The Red Sox are “likely” to shut injured infielder Michael Chavis down for the season, per Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald. Chavis will next take the field during winter ball in Puerto Rico, Hewitt adds. An oblique strain has kept the 22-year-old Chavis out of action since Aug. 11, and it appears his rookie campaign will end with a .254/.322/.444 line and 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances.
• Blue Jays minor league righty Luis Quinones received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drugs Nandrolone, John Lott of The Athletic reports. The ban will take effect at the beginning of the 2020 season. The 21-year-old Quinones was a 34th-round pick of the Jays this past June who produced stellar results in 36 2/3 innings between the rookie and low-A levels. He wrapped up his first professional season with a 2.95 ERA and 14.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.

As far as contract seasons go, Smoak surely can’t be thrilled with his results. He’s hitting .206/.342/.398 with 21 home runs on the year. At a time where seemingly everyone in the league has morphed into a power hitter, Smoak has cleared the fences 17 fewer times than he did in his 38-homer 2017 season. Waning playing time and a brief stint on the injured list have impacted that total, but the overall results aren’t ideal with free agency looming.

Smoak’s season, though, is also among the stranger you’ll come across when sifting through this year’s class of free agents. No one likes a .206 batting average, of course, but there’s also quite a bit to like about Smoak’s 2019 campaign. His 16.1 percent walk rate is the highest of his career by a long shot and is the sixth-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball. Smoak’s strikeout rate (21.1 percent) is down more than five percent from its 2018 level and is the second-best mark of his career. Only eight qualified hitters in baseball — Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach — have chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone than Smoak and his 22.9 percent clip. He ranks in the top 30 in terms of pitches per plate appearance (4.10). He’s been extremely disciplined at the plate.

A notable portion of Smoak’s struggles could be tied up in the fact that he’s had some poor luck on balls in play (.220). When looking into particularly egregious BABIP erosion, it’s common to see some trends that would portend to fewer balls dropping for hits — an uptick in infield flies, for instance, or for a player with Smoak’s skill set, perhaps a sharp increase in ground-balls. That hasn’t been the case, though. Smoak’s seven percent infield-fly rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 36.9 percent ground-ball rate is actually down nearly three percent from 2018. His line-drive rate, correspondingly, is up nearly three percent. His fly-ball rate is right in line with his past four seasons.

So perhaps Smoak simply isn’t making good contact anymore? Not the case. Smoak’s overall percentage of balls hit at 95+ mph is down from 41.9 percent last year to 38.9 percent in 2019, but he’s upped his average exit velocity, improved his launch angle and very slightly improved his barrel rate, per Statcast. Smoak’s expected batting average of .242 and his expected slugging percentage of .472 (also via Statcast) dwarf his actual output. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, the -.041 difference between Smoak’s actual wOBA (.325) and his expected wOBA (.366) is the ninth-largest. Put another way: Statcast considers Smoak among baseball’s unluckiest hitters in 2019. Not great timing for a player who’s about to hit free agency.

Of course, a poor season can’t be entirely blamed on rotten luck. Some of the struggles in terms of batting average are tied to aggressive shifting against Smoak — particularly when he hits left-handed (where he’s vastly better than from the right side). Smoak is MLB’s fourth-most shifted player when he bats lefty, and teams are shifting him 12 percent more often than in his monster 2017 season. As such, it’s barely been worth the effort for him to leave the box when he puts the ball on the ground. (I joke for the sake of hyperbole — run out your grounders, kids!)

Smoak is hitting .139 on grounders as a lefty and a ghastly .105 from the right side. Shifts are becoming more aggressive, more universally adopted and more precise; that’s going to hurt your plodding first basemen of the world, and Smoak is no exception. He’s already top-25 among qualified hitters in terms of fly-ball rate, but it’s easy to argue that he should strive to elevate even more. It’s also worth noting that Smoak is hitting .583 on line-drives, which sounds nice but is substantially south of the league average (.686) and his career rate (.711). Shifting likely plays a role there as well — but to a lesser extent. That’s one area where he seems likely to improve moving forward.

Given the leaguewide uptick in shifts over the past few years and Smoak’s decreasing speed, he’s probably never going to hit .270 like he did in 2017 (.270/.355/.529). But Smoak is also still making good contact and is more patient at the plate than he’s ever been before. He’s only been narrowly above replacement level this year by measure of wins above replacement, but there’s good reason to expect his bat to bounce back in 2020. The free-agent market has been particularly harsh for first base/DH types in recent winters, which could lead to someone getting themselves a nice bargain on Smoak.