Gallen, 29, pitched 148 innings of 3.65 ERA ball last season, representing his lowest innings total and highest ERA of the past three seasons. The right-hander missed roughly a month with a hamstring strain, limiting his time on the mound and perhaps also impacting his performance.

At his best, Gallen is an All-Star and Cy Young-caliber arm. He finished in the top five of NL Cy Young balloting in both 2022 and 2023, earning his lone career All-Star nod in the latter of those two seasons. Across those two years, Gallen pitched to a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings. Since making his big league debut with the Marlins in 2019 — Miami flipped him to Arizona that summer for Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Gallen touts a 3.29 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 815 1/3 innings.

Gallen has long been the ace of Arizona’s staff, but he’ll at least nominally be bumped into the No. 2 spot of a potential powerhouse rotation in the wake of the D-backs’ shock signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal. Burnes, Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and rebound hopeful/trade candidate Jordan Montgomery give the Diamondbacks a wealth of rotation talent to lean on in the coming season.

Naylor, 27, came to Arizona last month in a trade that sent righty Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Guardians. Cleveland immediately pivoted and signed Carlos Santana to a one-year, $12MM deal that mirrored the projection for Naylor. Cleveland will end up with the pricier of the two options at first base in the end, though they also added a controllable 25-year-old swingman and a pick in the high 60s of the 2025 draft.

The 2025 season will be Arizona’s lone year of control over Naylor, who’s coming off a career-best 31 home runs. He turned in a .243/.320/.456 batting line in 2024, clocking in about 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His bat faded a bit in the season’s second half, but only relative to the huge first-half numbers Naylor posted (particularly in April and in June). He was an above-average hitter in five of the season’s six months, per wRC+, with the lone exception being May, when he was just 3% under par.

Put more succinctly, Naylor is a consistent slugger who’ll bolster the middle of the D-backs’ lineup in place of Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60MM deal in Houston as a free agent (netting the Snakes a compensatory draft pick after the first round in the process). Naylor walked at a career-best 9.2% clip in 2024 and fanned at a 16.6% pace that’s considerably lower than league average.

Both Gallen and Naylor are candidates to receive a qualifying offer from the D-backs at season’s end, positioning Arizona to net compensation in the 2026 draft for their potential departure. Gallen, in particular, is a veritable lock so long as he’s healthy. Naylor would be a very strong QO candidate as well if he replicates or approximates the .267/.330/.465 form he’s turned in over the past three seasons, as he’d reach the market at just 28 years of age.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Athletics and Brent Rooker agreeing to a five-year extension (1:40)
• The Dodgers signing Hyeseong Kim and trading Gavin Lux to the Reds (6:40)
• The Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes (14:45)
• Do the Blue Jays have unique challenges in signing free agents to come to another country? (16:30)
• Will Burnes opt out in two years and will the Diamondbacks trade a starter now? (21:05)
• The Yankees acquiring Cody Bellinger from the Cubs and signing Paul Goldschmidt (26:35)
• The Astros signing Christian Walker (34:40)
• The Mets signing Sean Manaea and Griffin Canning (39:15)
• The Red Sox signing Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval (43:35)
• The Phillies acquiring Jesús Luzardo and signing Max Kepler (50:35)
• The Orioles signing Charlie Morton (55:35)
• The Guardians trading Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and signing Carlos Santana (58:30)
• The Rangers trading Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals and signing Joc Pederson (1:01:25)
• The Nationals get Lowe as well as signing Josh Bell, Michael Soroka and Trevor Williams (1:05:30)
• The Tigers signing Gleyber Torres and shuffling their infield around (1:08:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
• Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

An All-Star for the first time in 2024, Naylor hit a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) with a career-high 31 homers in 152 games for the Guardians this past year. That continues a three-year run of solid production from Naylor in Cleveland, as he’s posted an even better .267/.330/.465 (121 wRC+) slash line since becoming a regular fixture of the Guardians’ lineup in 2022. In addition to that solid 20-to-30 homer power Naylor has displayed, he’s posted impressive contact numbers with a strikeout rate of just 15.6% across the past three seasons. He’s paired that low strikeout rate with an improving walk rate that reached 9.2% in 2024. In Arizona, the 27-year-old Naylor joins an offense that not only lost Christian Walker at first base when he landed in Houston on a three-year deal earlier this week but also figures to provide the left-handed pop the club lost when DH Joc Pederson elected free agency last month.

He’s a solid fit for that role, though with free agency just one season away at an arbitration salary that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to land at $12MM, he lacks the surplus value more attractive trade targets typically offer. That increasing price tag in arbitration combined with the presence of youngster Kyle Manzardo as an obvious successor at first made Naylor somewhat expendable for the Guardians, however, and this evening’s addition of veteran first baseman Carlos Santana to the Cleveland lineup on a one-year deal suggests that the Guardians may have preferred to reallocate Naylor’s projected salary and playing time to the 15-year MLB veteran.

In exchange for parting ways with the slugger, they’ve added some draft capital and an intriguing young arm in Cecconi. Competitive Balance Round B encompassed the 66th through 73rd picks in the 2024 draft. As noted by MLB.com’s Joe Trezza, the Guardians already had the first pick of Competitive Balance Round B in 2025. Now, the club will get a second pick in that same round as the Diamondbacks were slated to pick third behind Cleveland and Baltimore.

Meanwhile, Cecconi is a former first-round selection by the Diamondbacks who has pitched in parts of the last two seasons for the club but has yet to establish himself in the majors. He flashed league average numbers in an up-and-down role with Arizona in 2023, pitching to a 4.33 ERA (102 ERA+) with a 4.37 FIP in 27 innings spread between four starts and three relief appearances. Those numbers took a tumble in a longer stint with the big league club this year, however. Cecconi struggled to a 6.66 ERA (63 ERA+) in 77 innings of work. While his 5.02 FIP was substantially better, that figure was still well below league average. Cecconi enjoyed an excellent 5% walk rate in the majors last year, but his 18.9% strikeout rate was lackluster and he allowed an eye-popping 16 homers in just 20 games.

Disastrous as his 2024 season was, however, Cecconi will now get an opportunity to move to a club well-regarded for its ability to develop young pitchers. Still just 25, the right-hander’s 3.04 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate in 47 innings at the Triple-A level this year offer some reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, whether that winds up being out of the rotation or the bullpen. After losing Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb in free agency and with Shane Bieber expected not to pitch until midway through the 2025 season, Cleveland already added Luis Ortiz to their rotation earlier this winter. Cecconi may not be able to break a rotation that now projects to include Ortiz alongside Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, and Triston McKenzie on Opening Day, but he’ll provide depth for the club nonetheless.

Turning back to Arizona, the acquisition of Naylor brings the club’s estimated payroll to $160MM according to RosterResource. That leaves the club with some additional flexibility before they reach their 2024 figure of $173MM, which Diamondbacks brass has previously indicated the 2025 payroll will likely end up in the vicinity of. The club is known to be in the market for relief pitching and has previously expressed interest in a reunion with Pederson, though it’s possible they believe the addition of Naylor fills the void created by Pederson’s departure.

With Naylor now set to join Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly as key contributors slated for free agency next winter, it’s possible the club could also benefit from being in longer-term help for its lineup or rotation that can help preserve continuity alongside core pieces like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Gabriel Moreno. Jordan Montgomery is also slated to reach free agency next winter, but the Diamondbacks haven’t been shy about looking to move him this winter and could free up additional payroll space by doing so.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Diamondbacks were nearing a deal for Naylor. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the full trade terms.

1:26pm: As the Mariners search for first base upgrades this winter, they’ve had some talks with the Guardians about Josh Naylor, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication the two parties are in any sort of advanced negotiations, but the fit is a natural one for an M’s club looking to improve its offense and a Guardians squad that has been open to offers on Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas as they enter their final seasons of club control.

Naylor, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season before reaching free agency next winter. He’s fresh off a career-high 31 homers and a .243/.320/.456 batting line (118 wRC+) with a 9.2% walk rate and just a 16.6% strikeout rate. The Mariners have been vocal over the past year-plus about wanting to scale back on their teamwide strikeout rate. Adding power and simultaneously reducing strikeout rate are often at odds with one another, but Naylor is the type of bat who can help them achieve both goals simultaneously.

A trade of Naylor for a Cleveland club that just re-signed Shane Bieber and is clearly intent on contending in 2025 might seem counterproductive at first glance, but the perennial tightrope walk of trading quality veterans for young talent while still trying to field a winning club is nothing new for the Guards. They just unloaded Andres Gimenez and his contract in what amounted to a three-team trade bringing hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz to Cleveland from Pittsburgh. That dropped their expected payroll to around $97MM, per RosterResource. Shedding Naylor would scale that back to $85MM while opening time for Kyle Manzardo at first base (and perhaps creating more room for some smaller-scale free agent additions).

At the same time, it should be noted that a trade of Naylor isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd wrote recently that he’d gotten the sense a trade of the slugging first baseman was becoming less likely, as the Guards weren’t impressed with anything offered up by other clubs. (A single text or phone call can change that, of course.) Understandably, Cleveland isn’t going to move a player of Naylor’s ability just to shed payroll; they’d need to feel they’re getting legitimate value in return — especially since with a season comparable to his 2022-24 showings, a then-28-year-old Naylor will be a qualifying offer candidate next offseason.

For the Mariners, Naylor would provide a boost to a club that saw Justin Turner reach free agency at season’s end. Turner was the club’s primary first baseman down the stretch last year after a deadline trade bringing him to Seattle. The M’s have Luke Raley as an option at first base, but he could also mix into the outfield and at designated hitter. Prospect Tyler Locklear is ready for a big league look, but a postseason hopeful like the Mariners might not want to just hand first base to an unproven 24-year-old who posted league-average numbers in Triple-A last season and slashed .156/.224/.311 with a 41% strikeout rate in his first 49 MLB plate appearances.

The M’s also have interest in bringing either Turner or veteran Carlos Santana back to Seattle. (Santana played with the M’s in 2023.) The team’s top priority at the moment seems to be upgrading at first base, then adding help at either third or second base — likely the former. In-house options like Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss and (eventually) top prospect Cole Young could factor in at second base if the end result is upgrading at both corners.

Naylor’s projected salary likely fits within the Mariners’ reported budget — about $15MM to spend, give or take, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times — but probably doesn’t leave room for another notable addition. The Mariners would surely love to find a way to unload the contracts of Mitch Haniger $15.5MM in 2025) and/or Mitch Garver ($12.5MM in 2025), but either would be a tall task. The presence of those cumbersome contracts, coupled with a second offseason headlined by a tight budget from ownership, make another round of trades from the ever-active Seattle front office likelier than a series of free-agent splashes aimed at once again revamping an offense that has struggled to produce in a highly pitcher-friendly setting.

If none of these targets end up being a fit, the Yankees are “also considering” several other backup plans.  According to Heyman, these options include signing free agent Carlos Santana, or exploring a trade for the Guardians’ Josh Naylor or the Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe.  Given how Yankees GM Brian Cashman usually casts a wide berth in checking in on numerous players every offseason, it’s probably safe to guess that more than just these aforementioned first basemen have drawn some level of interest from New York.

Signing Santana would be the most straight-forward and cost-effective move of the bunch, as Santana will almost surely require just a one-year guarantee because he is entering his age-39 season.  Despite his age, Santana rebounded from a few middling seasons to post a .238/.328/.420 slash line and 23 home runs for the Twins over 594 plate appearances in 2024, while also winning the AL Gold Glove at first base.  The combination of offense and defense translated to 3.0 fWAR for Santana, the third-highest of his 15 Major League seasons.

This production will merit Santana a raise on the $5.25MM he received in his one-year deal with Minnesota last winter, but concerns over his age and possible regression will probably limit his salary.  Signing Santana would also be a relatively low-upside play, whereas trading for Naylor or Lowe represents a higher ceiling for production.

Trading for Lowe would also mean more than just a one-year commitment, as the first baseman is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Projected for a $10.7MM salary this year, Lowe is coming off another solid season that saw him hit .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers over 565 PA, and Lowe also delivered quality defense as a Gold Glove finalist behind Santana.

There was a little buzz about Lowe’s possible availability heading into the trade deadline last summer, but nothing in the way of concrete reports that Texas was seriously considering moving the 29-year-old.  In re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Rangers are certainly aiming to return to contention in 2025, but moving Lowe to address another need on the active roster is a plausible tactic.  Since the Rangers are known to be looking for left-handed hitting, however, however, dealing such a lefty swinger in Lowe would only serve to tilt the lineup further to the right.

Trading Naylor would also be an imperfect move for a Guardians team that needs offensive help, but Cleveland has typically looked maximize its return on notable players by trading them before they reach free agency.  Naylor is therefore a more clear-cut trade candidate than Lowe, and Naylor’s projected $12MM arbitration salary won’t break the bank.  While Lowe or the switch-hitting Santana would also be good fits hitting at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right field seems taylor-made for Naylor’s left-handed power bat, and it is easy to imagine Naylor topping his career-best total of 31 homers (set in 2024) over a full season in the Bronx.

Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel are the likeliest candidates to step in at first base for the Guardians if Naylor is traded, though that is putting extra pressure on a pair of inexperienced players, plus the Guards would also need some extra first base/DH depth in that scenario.  Cleveland is also in need of outfield help, though the Yankees might not be a fit in that sense since they’re looking for outfielders themselves in the wake of Juan Soto’s departure.

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.

With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.

It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.

Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.

As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea’s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.

RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.

Cincinnati is known to be looking at outfield additions in particular, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall recently said that any new bat brought into the Reds’ fold would “most likely” be an outfielder.  Thomas’ right-handed bat could be a complement for Jake Fraley or TJ Friedl (both left-handed hitters) in right or center field, though since the Reds’ budget may be pretty limited, Thomas’ $8.3MM projected arbitration salary is a little steep for what might ideally be a part-time role.

Thomas hit better with the Nationals (.253/.331/.407 in 341 plate appearances) than he did with the Guardians (.209/.267/.390 in 187 PA) last season, and the combined totals work out to a slightly subpar 99 wRC+.  Thomas was worth 1.3 fWAR overall in his 130 total games, as public defensive metrics strongly disliked his right field glovework, and he was middling at best as a center field.

The Reds’ infield situation is both crowded and unsettled at the same time.  On paper, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are lined up at the top choices to see time at the corner infield slots and (probably moreso in Encarnacion-Strand’s case) at designated hitter.  However, none of this trio hit well in 2024, plus CES missed most of the season due to wrist surgery, and Marte missed the first half of the season due to a PED suspension.

Adding Naylor’s big bat at first base would add a lot more certainty to this mix, and since Naylor is only under team control through the 2025 season, there would be plenty of time down the road for Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to develop into regulars in Cincinnati’s lineup.  Naylor is coming off another quality season with the Guardians, hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers over 633 PA.

Given the profiles of the two players, it is fair to speculate that the Guardians might be more willing to trade Thomas in a pure salary-dump type of move, whereas Cleveland would want a more prominent return in exchange for Naylor.  As noted earlier, the Reds’ apparent lack of financial flexibility will make things tricky for Krall’s front office, so fitting Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.

The fact that the players are potentially available is not surprising. At the end of October, just as the offseason was getting going, MLBTR put both on our list of potential trade candidates for this winter. Like many lower-spending clubs, the Guardians are generally willing to consider trades of players as they get more expensive and their window of club control shrinks. These two players are just one year away from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Naylor for a $12MM salary and Thomas for $8.3MM.

Those are perfectly acceptable prices for those players but considering trades at this juncture is how clubs like the Guardians, Rays and Brewers operate. By consistently trading a year or two of a solid but somewhat expensive player for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives, the organizations stay continually well stocked with talent. That allows the clubs to stay fairly consistently competitive despite a lack of spending in free agency. The Guards have gone down this path before with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others in previous years.

Naylor, 28 in June, has been a consistent spark in the Cleveland lineup for three years now. He doesn’t walk a ton but avoids strikeouts and has popped at least 17 home runs in each of the past three campaigns, including 31 in the most recent season. He has a combined .267/.330/.465 batting line over those three years for a 121 wRC+, indicating he was 21% better than league average in that stretch.

Defensively, the metrics have been fairly kind to him overall. With almost 3,000 innings of first base work under his belt, he’s produced 10 Outs Above Average. His mark of -4 Defensive Runs Saved is obviously less impressive but that metric had him above average before a -6 grade in 2024, which might be an odd outlier.

Putting the offense and defense together, plus a few steals here and there, Naylor has been worth about two or three wins above replacement per year in that stretch. For his salary, that should give him plenty of appeal this offseason.

The free agent market features some big-name first basemen like Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt, but each of those will be costly. Alonso and Walker are both lined up for nice multi-year deals and each of them also rejected a qualifying offer, meaning they are tied to the forfeiture of draft picks and maybe international bonus pool money as well. Goldschmidt didn’t get a QO and may be limited to a one-year deal because of his age, but there’s still plenty of risk in such an investment since he struggled a bit in 2024. For clubs that don’t want to pay those kinds of prices or simply miss out in the bidding there, they could give the Guardians a call.

Thomas, 29, likely has less appeal on the trade market. His projected salary is a little lower but his ability to contribute is also a bit narrower as he’s a right-handed hitter who is better against lefties. For his career, he has slashed .302/.366/.514 with the platoon advantage for a 140 wRC+, but .223/.290/.391 against righties for an 87 wRC+. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions, with the metrics considering him around league average in center.

The platoon splits suggest he would be best utilized in a part-time role, but the lack of center field options in free agency could work in his favor. Harrison Bader is the top of the free agent class as a solid defender but with a subpar bat.

There is risk in Cleveland subtracting bats, as their offense wasn’t their strongest asset in 2024. Their elite bullpen carried them to the postseason, with the team hitting a collective .238/.307/.395 for a 100 wRC+. It was even worse the year before, as they hit .250/.313/.381 in 2023 for a 91 wRC+ with the lowest home run tally in the majors. Removing Naylor or Thomas from the lineup would be a gamble but the Guards would have fallback options. Kyle Manzardo could take over for Naylor as an everyday first baseman while players like Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman or Ángel Martínez could take over in center.

Naturally, a trade coming together would depend on what other clubs are offering. For Thomas in particular, the Guards just gave up a three-player package to get him from the Nationals at the deadline, surrendering Alex Clemmey, José Tena and Rafael Ramirez. Clemmey was just drafted with a second-round pick in 2023 and given a $2.3MM bonus, so that was a significant sacrifice. They likely wouldn’t flip Thomas just to get anything in return.

The Guardians are reportedly looking into the outfield market and could use some help in the rotation as well, so there may be a bit of musical chairs happening here. Perhaps a trade of Naylor and/or Thomas could be used to add some young talent to the system, with the cost savings redirected to replacing some of the lost production on the major league roster. RosterResource projects the club for a $98MM payroll in 2025, right around where they were to start 2024.

Teams like the Royals, Reds, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles and others are reportedly looking for outfield help or make sense for a right-handed addition, while clubs like the Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks and others could be looking for help at first base.

Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process.  It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023.  That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP.  Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed.  On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter.  It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars.  MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business.  And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core.  Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency.  That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however.  Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter.  Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market.  For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns.  Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors.  The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks.  The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup.  Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season.  The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth.  It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons.  Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster.  Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span.  Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.

As if the draft stock wasn’t enough, Naylor was soon included in a pair of relatively high-profile trades. Miami sent him to the Padres alongside Carter Capps, Jarred Cosart and, ahem, Luis Castillo (whoops) in exchange for Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and Tayron Guerrero. Naylor ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and made his debut with San Diego that season before being packaged with Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias and Cal Quantrill to acquire Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen and Matt Waldron from Cleveland (again… whoops).

For the first three seasons of Naylor’s career, he was an up-and-down first baseman/outfielder/designated hitter who didn’t do much hitting. In his first 633 plate appearances, he posted an anemic .250/.306/.389 batting line (88 wRC+). His 19.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average, but so was his 7% walk rate. Naylor hit the ball on the ground at a huge 51.6% clip, which is far from ideal for a hitter who drew 20- and 30-grade marks for his speed as a prospect. He was borderline passive at the dish, only swinging at 48% of pitches thrown.

In what amounted to roughly a full season’s worth of plate appearances (603) over that three-year span, Naylor was more or less a replacement-level player. He made plenty of contact but didn’t do much damage with it and didn’t really contribute defensively. Naylor posted below-average grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in the outfield corners and only saw sparse action at first base (106 innings).

In 2022, the Guardians moved Naylor to first base full time. Whether he felt more comfortable there and thus at the plate, or whether he simply adapted to big league pitching after getting a few hundred plate appearances under his belt, a corner was clearly turned. Naylor took a huge step forward at the dish, smacking a career-best 20 homers while hitting .256/.319/.452 in 498 plate appearances. His walk rate crept up from 5.6% to 7.6% His strikeout rate dipped from 18% to 16.1%. Things continued trending in a positive direction in 2023, with Naylor cutting the strikeout rate all the way to 13.7% as he turned in an even better .308/.354/.489 slash.

This season, Naylor’s gone from a solid middle-of-the-order hitter behind star teammate Jose Ramirez to a star-caliber bat himself, however. He’s out to a blistering .295/.366/.557 start, and it’s not the type of early-season fluke that’s propped up by a .400-something average on balls in play. Naylor’s .274 BABIP is actually 21 points lower than the .295 mark he carried into the season, in fact. So what’s changed?

For starters, the K-BB profile has only continued to get better. He’s walking at an 8.9% clip that’d be right in line with his 9% career-best mark from back in his rookie season. His 10.9% strikeout rate isn’t just a career-best — it’s tied with Mookie Betts for the eighth-lowest in MLB. Naylor has always been a free swinger who’s chased off the plate a lot; he swung at 38.4% of pitches off the plate in his career prior to 2024. This year, he’s at 32.6%. His overall contact rate is actually down a tick, but that’s easier to stomach when he’s laying off more bad balls and working himself into better counts.

It’s also in part due to what appears to be a conscious effort to do more damage at the plate. More than half of Naylor’s batted balls (50.4%) were hit on the ground through his first four seasons. He lowered his ground-ball rate in each of his first four MLB seasons but took a major jump in 2023, cutting that grounder rate from 48.9% in ’22 to 42.7%. This year, Naylor is only putting 40.5% of his batted balls on the ground. Both his 22.8% line-drive rate and 36.7% fly-ball rate are career-high marks.

As one would expect, elevating the ball more regularly is leading to considerably more damage. Naylor may be sacrificing a bit of contact, but he possesses such strong bat-to-ball skills that you’ll rarely see him swing through multiple pitches in the same at-bat. And the extra oomph in his swing is producing better results not just in his rate stats but in the under-the-hood numbers as well. Naylor’s 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 12.7% barrel rate and 44.3% hard-hit rate — as measured by Statcast — are all easy career-highs. He’s seen 20.7% of his fly-balls clear the fence for home runs — a major improvement over his career 13% mark and the single-season career-high of 15.9% he established in 2022.

For years, the Guardians have forged an identity as a team full of pesky, tough-to-strike-out hitters who put the ball in play but also generally lacked pop. Ramirez was a true heart-of-the-order slugger who managed to embody that contact-driven focus while still hitting for power, but Cleveland lacked anyone else who fit that profile. It’s early in 2024, but Naylor looks to be figuring out the recipe for toeing that same line. The six homers he’s hit in 101 plate appearances is already one shy of his 2021 total in 250 plate appearances and already 30% of the way to his career-high in only 20% the playing time.

Still just 26 years old, Naylor remains in his physical prime and is refining an already strong approach and plan at the plate in a way that’s letting him tap into the 60- to 70-grade marks that scouts put on his power during his prospect days. In doing so, he appears on the cusp of breaking out as a potentially elite hitter.

Heading into the season, with questions about how the Guardians would fare coming off a disappointing 2023 season, it was reasonable to view Naylor as a possible summer trade candidate. Multiple clubs expressed interest him over the winter. He’s expensive by Cleveland standards, earning $6.55MM this year, and will very likely command a raise to north of $10MM in 2025 — his final season of club control. The Guardians have a habit of trading players before the get to the point where they could test free agency.

But Cleveland’s excellent start to the season, even in the midst of a severe slate of pitching injuries, should have fans of other clubs pumping the brakes on the idea of prying Naylor from the Guardians’ grasp. If the wave of pitching injuries proves to be too difficult to withstand and the Guards eventually fall out of the race, it could still be a possibility. But right now, Naylor is one of the driving factors in Cleveland’s hot start to the season and breaking out as a critical cog in a lineup that’s vastly exceeding expectations.

“I’m going to leave that to them. You can ask them that question,” Naylor said, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. “Obviously, Cleveland’s an incredible place to play. I love my teammates, I love my coaches and, yeah, my brother’s here, too, which is awesome.”

Naylor, 27 in June, has hit 37 home runs over the past two seasons. His 7.2% walk rate is subpar but he’s been tough to strike out, with a 14.9% rate in that department. He slashed a combined .282/.336/.471 over those two campaigns for a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average over that span. He was also given solid grades for his glovework at first, helping him tally a combined 4.3 wins above replacement over those two years, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Looking at the standard operating procedure of the franchise, there’s more precedent for a trade than an extension in this situation. As they look to continually compete with small budgets, the club has often traded players approaching free agency, bringing back younger and cheaper players. That’s how Naylor came to the club in the first place, as the Guards flipped Mike Clevinger and two other players to the Padres for a six-player package that included a young Naylor. In addition to Clevinger, they have also traded players like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor and others as their club control was dwindling.

They have given some extensions over the years, but usually for players earlier in their careers. Players like Andrés Giménez, Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan and Myles Straw have signed extensions with the club in recent years, but each of those guys agreed to their deals before reaching arbitration when their earning power was still fairly low. Naylor qualified for arbitration a year ago and made a salary of $3.35MM in 2023. He’s already agreed to a $6.5MM salary this year and will be slated for one more raise next year.

The notable exception to these trends is José Ramírez, who signed a second extension to stick with the club instead of getting traded or becoming a free agent. That seems to have been a perfect storm situation, with Ramírez having admitted that he was told the club couldn’t pay him what he was worth. But since he was happy in Cleveland and wanted to stay, he decided to leave money on the table and accept an extension rather than winding up on the trade block like so many others before him.

Those circumstances all suggest Naylor is more likely to be traded than extended. Beyond his contractual situation, there’s also the fact that the club may have a ready-made first base replacement. Kyle Manzardo was acquired from the Rays in last summer’s Aaron Civale deal, yet another instance of an arb-eligible player being shipped out of Cleveland for prospect help. Manzardo is a first baseman who has yet to make his major league debut but has hit well throughout his minor league career thus far. Like Naylor, he is generally tough to strike out with the ability to hit a few bombs.

The club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter at the moment, so both could fit into a lineup. That will likely be the plan if Manzardo hits well in Spring Training this year or early in the 2024 season. But if he is able to successfully prove himself as a capable big league bat, it would fit with Cleveland’s typical M.O. for the Naylor trade rumors to pick up steam. This winter, he’s already reportedly drawn trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Pirates.

The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production.  The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat.  Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power.  While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.

It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign.  Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA.  These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.

As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup.  However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play.  Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.  While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.

Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason.  Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal.  Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.

With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency.  Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.

Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two.  Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.

Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani.  Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season.  As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.

There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls.  However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention.  That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.

The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters.  The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Naylor was initially projected to miss between three to six weeks, so he’ll get back to action roughly halfway through that estimated recovery timetable.  While missing Naylor for any amount of time was a blow to the Guardians, the club will at least get their second-best hitter back for most of September, and Naylor fortunately avoided any kind of lingering oblique issue that might’ve threatened his season entirely.

With a .306/.346/.500 slash line and 15 homers over 390 plate appearances this season, Naylor has joined Jose Ramirez as essentially the only premium bats within a lackluster Guardians lineup.  The timing of Naylor’s injury seemed to almost close the door on the Guards’ chances of contending, as the team had already moved Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario, and Josh Bell in advance of the trade deadline.

However, while Cleveland is only 13-16 since the start of August, they remain five games behind the Twins for first place in the AL Central.  Naylor’s impending return might have inspired the Guardians’ decision to be aggressive during the recent flurry of pre-September 1 waiver placements, as the Guards bolstered their pitching ranks by claiming Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore from the Angels.  It remains to be seen if these new arms and Naylor’s bat might be enough to get Cleveland past Minnesota, but even with a 66-70 record, the Guardians aren’t quitting on the 2023 campaign.

1:50pm: The Guardians on Friday placed first baseman Josh Naylor and infielder Tyler Freeman on the injured list, tweets Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal. Cleveland also called up infielder Jose Tena and acquired veteran outfielder Kole Calhoun from the Dodgers in exchange for cash. He’s been selected to the Major League roster. Calhoun was eligible to be traded by virtue of the fact that has not been on a 40-man roster or Major League injured list this season. (You can read more about how to acquire players after the trade deadline here.)

Naylor was scratched from the lineup earlier this week due to an oblique injury and is now sidelined at least 10 days — though even Grade 1 oblique strains can often sideline a player up to a month. The 28-year-old has been enjoying a breakout season, slashing .306/.346/.500 with 15 home runs, 25 doubles and six steals. Naylor looked like a lock to set new career-highs in homers and doubles, topping last season’s respective personal records of 20 and 28. It remains to be seen just how long he’ll be sidelined, but so long as he doesn’t face a lengthy stay on the IL, he still appears in good position to do so. Either way, his excellent production will give him a notable raise over this year’s $3.35MM salary.

Freeman, 24, has yet to receive a chance to settle into a regular role in Cleveland despite long ranking as one of the system’s top prospects. He’s an advanced hitter who’s lacking power but is touted for his excellent contact skills and hit tool. He’s punched out in just 13.8% of his big league plate appearances and is batting .286/.344/.357 in 95 plate appearances this year. The trade of Amed Rosario opened up some additional reps in the Cleveland infield, but Freeman’s shoulder strain will deprive him of further opportunities for the time being.

The veteran Calhoun, 35, was in spring training with the Mariners and has since signed minor league deals with the Yankees and Dodgers. None of those clubs gave the former Angels All-Star a look in the Majors, despite Calhoun doing his best to force the issue. Though he’s struggled to a .208/.269/.343 batting line over the past two big league seasons, Calhoun has posted terrific numbers in Triple-A this season, slashing .297/.376/.530 in 266 plate appearances. He’s swatted nine homers, 17 doubles and five triples — all while walking in just over 10% of his plate appearances and striking out at a lower-than-average 18% clip.

Tena will make his big league debut when he first takes the field. He’s not as touted as some of the Guardians’ other young middle infield but is still a prospect of some note. The 22-year-old had just been bumped up for his Triple-A debut (during which he went 1-for-3 with a double) after hitting .260/.353/.370 in 362 Double-A plate appearances. That stop in Columbus will prove little more than a layover en route to Cleveland. Baseball America ranks Tena 14th among Cleveland prospects, crediting him with an above-average hit tool and speed but below average power. He’s a versatile defender who can capably play any of shortstop, second base or third base.