Urquidy, 30 in May, has tossed 405 innings for the Astros in his career with a 3.98 earned run average, 19.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is therefore slated to miss most or all of the 2025 campaign.

That was going to be his final season of club control, with the Astros eligible to retain him via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Urquidy for a $3.75MM salary next year but the Astros seemingly decided it wasn’t worth making that kind of investment for a player with such an uncertain timeline and bumped him off the roster instead. All of the other clubs seemingly agreed with none of them putting in a claim. As a player with at least three years of service time, Urquidy has the right to elect free agency instead of accepting an outright assignment.

Urquidy will now head to the open market and perhaps head to a new club for the first time. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgeries can sometimes find two-year deals that cover the rehab portion and also give the signing club an extra year of club control wherein the pitcher is hopefully fully healthy.

Ortega, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Twins a year ago but never got to pitch for the Astros. He underwent surgery in March to remove loose bodies from his elbow and then underwent another surgery in June to remove a bone spur. Due to those surgeries, he spent the entire season on the injured list. His current status is unclear but the Astros didn’t want to keep him on the roster going forward. As a player with a previous career outright, he had the right to elect free agency and did so.

8:36pm: The Astros have placed star outfielder Kyle Tucker on the 10-day injured list with a right shin contusion, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The move is retroactive to June 4, meaning Tucker could return a week from now. Houston didn’t immediately announce a corresponding roster move or provide a timetable for his return.

Tucker was injured in Monday’s win over the Cardinals. He fouled a ball off his leg and had to be removed from the game. While the two-time All-Star was on crutches postgame, testing didn’t reveal any fractures. That led the Astros to keep him on the active roster for a few days even though he wasn’t healthy enough to play. He evidently needed more time than the team initially hoped, sending him to the shelf.

It’s probably no coincidence that Houston placed Tucker on the IL just before tonight’s game. A team is allowed to backdate an IL stint by up to three days. Tucker had already been out since June 4. If the Astros had waited into the weekend to put him on the shelf, they’d have pushed back his first possible return date.

The injury halts a fantastic start to the season. Tucker has been a superstar for a few years and has taken his game to new heights in 2024. He has already hit 19 homers across 262 plate appearances. He’s running a .266/.395/.584 batting line with 46 walks against 41 strikeouts over 60 games. If healthy, he should coast to a third consecutive All-Star Game and looks on track to beat last year’s fifth-place finish in MVP balloting.

Despite Tucker’s massive numbers, the Astros head into this weekend’s set against the Angels with a 28-35 record. Their efforts to dig out of that hole will be complicated by the loss of their best player for at least a week. Houston plugged Yordan Alvarez into left field tonight against Griffin Canning, freeing the DH spot for Yainer Diaz and getting Victor Caratini into the lineup at catcher. Trey Cabbage is starting in right field for the second consecutive game.

In other injury news, the Astros announced this afternoon that starters Cristian Javier and José Urquidy each underwent Tommy John surgery (X link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Rome had previously reported that Javier would be undergoing TJS on Thursday. Urquidy’s status wasn’t as clear. While the team announced on Wednesday that he was headed for a season-ending elbow procedure, it wasn’t known whether he’d require a full Tommy John or a modified internal brace repair. Both pitchers seem likely to be out past the 2025 All-Star Break. Urquidy, who would be a free agent after ’25, could be non-tendered next winter.

Hernandez, 29, was just acquired from the Padres last night in a cash deal. He had signed a minor league deal with the Friars in January and has been pitching well this year. He tossed 23 2/3 innings for Triple-A El Paso with a 1.90 earned run average, despite the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. He may have benefitted from an 84.5% strand rate and 4% home run to flyball ratio, but he also struck out 34% of batters faced.

The Astros were intrigued enough to send some cash to San Diego and bring Hernandez back to his original organization. The Astros drafted Hernandez back in 2016 but he reached minor league free agency after the 2022 season, eventually pivoting to the Padres.

He’ll now have a chance to improve his small-sample major league stats. He tossed three innings for the Friars last year but allowed four earned runs, leaving him currently sitting on a career ERA of 12.00. He was outrighted off the roster before re-signing on a minor league deal coming into this year.

The Astros essentially had a free roster spot to use with Urquidy set to miss the rest of the year. The same is true of Cristian Javier, as he’s slated to undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow. He’ll eventually be transferred to the 60-day IL as well, giving Houston another roster spot to work with, which could lead to another small deal or waiver claim in the near future.

Urquidy, 29, opened the season on the injured list with a forearm strain and will now miss the entire campaign. He did pitch a bit in the minor leagues on a rehab assignment last month, but he was lifted from what’ll be his final outing of the year after experiencing renewed pain in his forearm/elbow. The Astros subsequently announced that Urquidy was seeking a second opinion, which is frequently an ominous sign for injured pitchers.

When he’s been healthy enough to take the mound, Urquidy has proven himself to be a reliable rotation cog in Houston. Outside of an ugly 5.29 ERA last year in a season that was plagued by shoulder troubles, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every season of his career, leaving him with a lifetime 3.98 mark in 405 MLB frames. His 19.6% strikeout rate is three percentage points below the league average, but Urquidy has offset that with a terrific 5.8% walk rate in his career. Home runs have been an issue, as is the case  for many shorter righties with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him keep lefties at bay (.203/.255/.364).

Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that Urquidy could be headed for Tommy John surgery — which would be the second such procedure of his career. He previously had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2017. Urquidy has also missed time in both 2021 and 2023 due to shoulder injuries. Whether this new procedure will be a standard Tommy John operation or a newer iteration that includes augmentation from an internal brace remains to be seen.

Either way, if this indeed proves to be a UCL-related surgery, it’s quite possible it’ll end Urquidy’s tenure with the Astros entirely. He’s being paid $3.75MM this season and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Houston would likely need to commit the same salary to Urquidy again for a 2025 season that would be mostly spent on the injured list.

Even if Urquidy were to agree to the maximum 40% pay cut permissible under the arbitration system, that’d still be a notable price to pay for a pitcher who might not make it back until late in the season — if he returns at all. If Urquidy had multiple seasons of club control remaining, the ’Stros might make that concession, but the right-hander is slated to become a free agent following the 2025 campaign anyhow. It’s always possible they’ll come to some kind of agreement on a two-year deal that’s backloaded with most of the salary falling in 2026, but the injury unfortunately renders Urquidy a clear non-tender candidate.

With regard to the 2024 season, the official losses of both Urquidy and Javier is a gut-punch for a floundering Astros club. Houston sits at 28-34, placing them seven games behind the division-leading Mariners and six games back of the third AL Wild Card spot.

Poor starting pitching has been the most prominent reason for Houston’s decline in the AL West. In addition to Urquidy and Javier, the Astros have seen Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez both spend time on the injured list. Right-handers Hunter Brown and J.P. France — the latter now on the minor league IL due to a shoulder injury — have both taken significant steps back in 2024. Rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley have been hit hard (the latter in a single MLB spot start). Even with Ronel Blanco in the midst of a surprise breakout during his age-30 season, the Astros’ collective 4.71 rotation ERA ranks 26th in the majors.

Reinforcements should be on the horizon in the form of righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., though neither pitcher’s return is imminent just yet. Garcia, on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last June, is facing live hitters and could soon head out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’d presumably require several starts before being deemed an option for the MLB rotation, however. McCullers, who had flexor surgery last summer, is a few weeks behind Garcia in his recovery process. In theory, Garcia could be back around the All-Star break, with McCullers not terribly far behind him — but that’s assuming no setbacks. And by that point, it’s also fair to wonder whether the Astros would feel the urgency to rush either pitcher.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said recently that he doesn’t envision any scenario where the Astros end up as trade deadline sellers, but it’s difficult to see how they’d be aggressive buyers if they fall much further back in the standings. There are just under eight weeks for the team to right the ship, and while a course correction is hardly implausible, the current paper-thin rotation depth means Houston will need its rotation to hold things down and perform much better while waiting on Garcia and McCullers.

Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, Brown and Arrighetti will carry on as the starting five for now, but the aforementioned Henley is the only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster. The Astros did sign lefty Eric Lauer to a minor league deal last month, and they could easily open 40-man space for him by putting Javier or Urquidy on the 60-day injured list. But Henley has been tagged for a 5.44 ERA in Triple-A this season, while Lauer was torched for seven runs over three innings in his first start with Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston can ill-afford another injury of note on the big league staff at the moment.

The 29-year-old Urquidy has yet to pitch this season, opening the year on the injured list with a forearm strain. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment last month, but he was pulled from his latest appearance after experiencing renewed discomfort in his forearm area. Houston skipper Joe Espada said late last week that Urquidy and fellow right-hander Cristian Javier were seeking opinions from other doctors for their respective forearm issues — always an ominous development for a pitcher when dealing with a forearm/elbow injury.

This marks the third time in four seasons that Urquidy has spent time on the injured list, though this would obviously be the most significant injury of the bunch. Shoulder troubles limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings back in 2021, and he missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with another shoulder injury.

When healthy, Urquidy is a solid big league arm. He was tagged for a 5.29 ERA last year, perhaps due to that shoulder injury, but has otherwise posted a sub-4.00 ERA mark in every big league season he’s pitched. He’s totaled 405 MLB frames and logged a 3.98 ERA. Urquidy’s 19.6% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of the league average, but he’s also posted an excellent 5.8% walk rate in the majors which has helped him to offset the relative lack of whiffs. He’s been prone to homers, as one might expect from an undersized right-hander with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him to hold left-handers to a woeful .203/.255/.364 slash in his career.

Urquidy is one of several Houston rotation options who’s missed time this year. Both Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez are healthy now but have had stays on the injured list. The aforementioned Javier just landed on the 15-day IL recently. The ’Stros have also been without righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all season, with the former recovering from Tommy John surgery performed last May and the latter on the mend from flexor surgery performed last June.

The litany of injuries, paired with major steps back for right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown, has left Houston in what’s been an unfamiliar position for them in recent years: one of possessing a clear deficiency in the starting rotation. Starting pitching has been a hallmark of recent Astros clubs, but Houston starters rank 26th in baseball with a 4.69 ERA in 2024.

Brown has begun to right the ship after incorporating a new two-seamer into his repertoire, but he opened the season with 26 runs in 23 innings, so he has a ways to go before his numbers look respectable once again. France posted an ERA north of 7.00 and was optioned to Triple-A, where he’s since gone on the injured list with a shoulder injury. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti has been knocked around for a 5.98 ERA in his first nine MLB starts.

The quartet of Verlander, Valdez, Javier and breakout righty Ronel Blanco has combined for strong results this season, but Javier’s outlook is up in the air at the moment. Brown is holding down a rotation spot and can hopefully continue his recent stretch of productivity, but the depth behind the current group is suspect. Expected returns of Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia have been viewed as critical to the Astros as the summer wears on, but it now seems there’s a real chance Urquidy won’t make it back to the mound at all in 2024. Lefty Eric Lauer recently inked a minor league deal with the Astros but was hit hard in his first Triple-A start with the organization.

If Urquidy does go under the knife for the second Tommy John surgery of his career, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 season and likely the majority of the 2025 campaign as well. It seems quite possible that a surgery would end his tenure in Houston. He entered the 2024 season with 4.049 years of MLB service and will be paid $3.75MM this season, potentially spending the entire year on the injured list. He’d then be arbitration-eligible one final time this offseason before qualifying as a free agent post-2025. However, if Urquidy is going to miss the bulk of next season, the Astros would likely non-tender him rather than pay him what’d likely be a repeat of this year’s $3.75MM salary just to pitch the final couple months of next season in a best-case scenario.

Alvarez has made consecutive starts in left field after previously appearing in only three games at the position. Espada noted that Alvarez picking up outfield at-bats will come at the expense of Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, adding that he’ll still work to keep everyone involved in the mix for playing time. (MVP candidate Kyle Tucker and center fielder Jake Meyers, in the midst of a breakout showing, naturally don’t appear as though their playing time will be impacted.)

Abreu is 1-for-6 with an RBI single since being recalled from a monthlong sojourn to the minor leagues — a rare assignment for a veteran of his status but one to which the former AL MVP consented after a disastrous start to the season. He went 7-for-22 with a homer and a pair of doubles with Houston’s Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate. Abreu then played a pair of games in Triple-A Sugar Land and went 0-for-7 with a walk and three strikeouts.

The Astros are trying what they can to get Abreu back on track after a disappointing debut campaign in 2023 and a calamitous .099/.156/.113 slash through his first 77 plate appearances of the current campaign. It’s not clear what kind of leash Abreu will have, particularly with Houston sitting 6.5 games back in both the AL West and in the AL Wild Card chase, but Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract gives the team plenty of financial incentive to try to turn things around.

Between Abreu and the 32-year-old Singleton, who returned to the majors after a seven-year absence last season, the Astros’ first base mix has been woefully unproductive. Singleton has turned in a .221/.327/.359 slash — roughly league-average offense (102 wRC+) that’s been accompanied by poorly rated defense (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average in 293 innings).

That lackluster output from the team’s first basemen is just one of many reasons the Astros find themselves staring at a 24-32 record with more than a third of the season in the books. The rotation’s health — or rather, the lack thereof — has also been a prominent factor. On that front, Espada provided a mixed bag of updates.

On the positive side of things, right-hander Luis Garcia is continuing to progress well in his rehab from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He threw off a mound at Minute Maid Park last week, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets that the right-hander is now slated to throw to hitters in his next throwing session. McTaggart adds that righty Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on the mend from flexor surgery, threw a bullpen session this week but is still “a few weeks” from facing live hitters.

Facing live hitters and pitching in simulated game settings are often the last steps before an injured pitcher is cleared to set out on a minor league rehab assignment. Garcia will presumably have multiple live batting practice sessions before progressing to a rehab stint, which could last up to 30 days itself. A return isn’t right around the corner just yet, but he’s on track for a midsummer debut this year. McCullers, it seems, isn’t terribly far behind him.

Less encouraging were Espada’s updates on injured right-handers Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. Both are “getting opinions from other doctors,” according to Espada (via McTaggart). Seeking second opinions is always an ominous step for a pitcher, particularly when both are dealing with this type of injury. Urquidy has yet to pitch this season after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. Javier went on the injured list last week with forearm discomfort.

Abreu, 37, struggled through a down season at the plate last year in his first season with the Astros but began to heat up somewhat late in the season, providing optimism for his second year with the club. Unfortunately, the hot stretch didn’t carry over and the veteran posted a disastrous .099/.156/.113 slash line in 22 games before agreeing to be optioned to the minors in an attempt to overcome the deep struggles that had been plaguing him. Since then, Abreu has appeared in six games in the minor leagues and slashed a respectable .280/.357/.480 in 28 trips to the plate.

If Abreu can show anything close the offensive performance he offered during his time with the White Sox, for whom he never posted a wRC+ less than 14% better than league average, it would provide a huge boost to an Astros club that has scuffled in the early going and currently sits 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West with a 23-29 record that puts them behind both the Mariners and Rangers. Jon Singleton has performed admirably at first base in Abreu’s absence with a 110 wRC+ in 38 games this year, but that includes a paltry .206/.290/.324 slash line against left-handed pitching this year. Abreu, by contrast, produced well against southpaws even last season, when he hit a decent .235/.296/.444 against them in 179 trips to the plate.

More from around the AL West…

• Sticking with the Astros, right-hander Jose Urquidy suffered a tough setback today after exiting a rehab start due to what manager Joe Espada termed “right forearm discomfort,” as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. Urquidy is undergoing evaluation to determine the severity of the issue, but even a brief setback would be an unfortunate turn of events for Houston. Urquidy had been expected to return to the club at some point within the next week, and in doing so would have offered the Astros some much-needed pitching depth amid deep struggles in the rotation. The club is currently utilizing a six-man rotation of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco, but only Blanco and Verlander have been above average by measure of ERA+ and no one in that group has posted a FIP below 4.00 this season.
• Angels superstar Mike Trout spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) prior to today’s game against the Guardians earlier today and offered an optimistic update regarding his rehab from meniscus surgery earlier this month. While Trout didn’t provide a timetable for his return, he noted that he’s “feeling good” as he regains strength in his leg while resuming weight room activity, and added that he’s “pretty close” to beginning to run again. The star center fielder was off to another great start this year prior to the injury, slashing .220/.325/.541 despite a shockingly low .194 BABIP thanks in part to a whopping 10 homers in 29 games. Reporting at the time of his surgery suggested a four-to-six week recovery period was the best case scenario for Trout’s return, although the Angels have since indicated that they’re going to take Trout’s rehab slowly in order to minimize the odds of re-injury.
• The Athletics had a bit of a scare regarding right-hander Austin Adams earlier today in their game against Houston when he was removed from the game due to a bout of left neck tightness. Fortunately, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com) after the game this evening that Adams is day-to-day and probably could have pitched through the issue if necessary, though the club preferred not to risk it. One of several journeymen making the most of their time in Oakland, Adams has been excellent for the A’s this season as he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA with a 3.01 FIP across 23 appearances with a whopping 32.9% strikeout rate. Adams has acted as the primary set-up man to star closer Mason Miller this season, and the 33-year-old is controlled through the end of next season, a fact that could make him a particularly attractive target at the trade deadline this summer if he can stay healthy and effective.

Per Kawahara, Brown indicated to Ford that McCormick, who has been out of action since late April due to a hamstring strain, could return to the Astros lineup as soon as tomorrow. The 29-year-old scuffled a bit to open the season prior to his injury, slashing a lackluster .236/.325/.278 in 21 games prior to the injury. Even so, the return of McCormick could provide a noticeable boost to the club’s offense assuming he’s healthy. After all, he was one of the club’s top offensive contributors last year when he posted a strong .273/.353/.489 slash line in 115 games. That strong showing appeared to earn him the opportunity to take a larger role with the club going forward, although given the strong performance of Jake Meyers as the club’s regular center fielder in McCormick’s absence it’s certainly possible that those circumstances have changed.

As for Abreu, Rome indicates that the veteran could join the club in Oakland on Friday for their series opener against the A’s. Abreu agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues at the end of last month after scuffling to a brutal .099/.156/.113 slash line in 77 trips to the plate this season. The 37-year-old got into his first game action in a pair of Florida Complex League games the past two days, going 2-for-10 with a double and a walk in those appearances. Brown added that Abreu is expected to get into “a few” more games before he returns to the Astros, although it’s not yet clear if those will be additional FCL games or if he’ll instead advance to the Triple-A level as he prepares to face big league pitching for the first time in nearly a month.

Abreu is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM deal he signed with the Astros prior to the 2023 season. So far, that deal has not gone how either side was surely hoping. In addition to Abreu’s brutal start to the 2024 campaign, the veteran is coming off a down season in 2023 where he slashed just .237/.296/.383 in 141 games with Houston. That performance resulted in a wRC+ of just 86, making 2023 the first below average offensive season of the first baseman’s career. While Abreu has been away from the club, Jon Singleton has primarily handled first base duties and has held his own in the role with a .222/.322/.364 slash line that’s 1% better than league average by measure of wRC+.

In other Astros news, right-hander Jose Urquidy threw 59 pitches in a rehab start at the Double-A level last night. According to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, the right-hander is set to make one more rehab start before being activated from the injured list. That Urquidy is nearing a return is surely a major relief for Houston, as the club’s starting rotation has been fraught with difficulties throughout the season. Rotation stalwarts Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez have each spent time on the injured list already this year, while J.P. France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have all struggled badly with ERAs north of 7.00. Right-hander Ronel Blanco emerged early in the season as a surprising anchor for the club’s rotation, but the righty is in the midst of a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s foreign substance policy that has put a further strain on Houston’s pitching apparatus.

Given those major struggles, it would be a huge help for the Astros if Urquidy can even deliver roughly average results out of the rotation. That was hardly an issue for the 29-year-old earlier in his career, as he pitched to a solid 3.74 ERA with a 4.35 FIP in 63 career appearances through the end of the 2022 season. Unfortunately, the right-hander struggled significantly last season and posted a 5.29 ERA (79 ERA+) with a 5.38 FIP in 63 innings between the rotation and bullpen as his strikeout rate dipped to a measly 16.4% while his walk rate crept up to 9.1%. Despite those struggles, the right-hander figures to slot into the rotation in place of Arrighetti or Brown and allow the club to either move the youngsters to the bullpen or allow them to work things out in the minors.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

Houston general manager Dana Brown now tells Chandler Rome of the Athletic that while the front office won’t rule out adding a starter, they’re “not actively doing anything” on that front. Brown made similar comments about the team’s comfort with the rotation before their late effort to land Snell, so that doesn’t rule out a move. At the same time, the GM suggested Snell was something of a unique case.

“It’s a different guy. If we have a bunch of guys that are similar to the other guys that are available, why go after them? Why pay more money for the same production? We feel like if we get Snell, that’s a huge piece, so you have to be on the market for a guy that’s a huge piece like that,” Brown said. “But the other guys that are available, they compare to all of our guys that we have depth with. I wouldn’t want to pay more money and we (already) got a guy right around the minimum or a little bit more. That wouldn’t be smart.”

That’s not really true of Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA and has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past three seasons. Still, there hasn’t been any indication that Houston has had substantive interest in the southpaw at any point this offseason. It’s more debatable whether they’d get an upgrade from any of the other unsigned starting pitchers, a group led by Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. Yet even if someone like Lorenzen isn’t a marked improvement over Houston’s in-house starters, there’d be some merit to bringing in another pitcher to cover against early-season injuries.

The Astros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. wouldn’t be factors until midway through the season. Justin Verlander is a couple weeks behind schedule due to shoulder soreness and will start the year on the injured list. That’s now also true of José Urquidy, who was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his forearm yesterday.

While forearm strains can be precursors to more serious injuries, Urquidy provided reporters with a positive update this afternoon. The righty said that multiple evaluations indicated his UCL was fully intact and that imaging mainly revealed muscular inflammation in his forearm (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Urquidy expressed his hope he could begin a throwing program within 10-14 days.

That won’t keep him off the injured list but addresses any fear the team might’ve had about Urquidy possibly needing surgery. Brown told Rome that the Astros expect Urquidy will be out of action for a little more than a month all told. Houston’s season-opening starting staff should be led by Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Right-handers Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco are the top options for the #5 role if the Astros don’t go outside the organization.

Urquidy joins Justin Verlander (shoulder discomfort), Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery last May) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery last June) as Astros starters on the injured list to begin the season. Left-hander Framber Valdez has already been named the Opening Day starter, and he’ll likely be joined on the starting staff by righties Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and J.P. France.

Injuries have mounted for the Astros in spring training, and they’ll now have nearly an entire MLB rotation (and a good one, at that) on their 15-day IL to open the year. The ’Stros also announced early in camp that setup man Kendall Graveman would miss the season due to shoulder surgery — a move that prompted them to pivot and sign Josh Hader to a five-year contract in free agency.

There’s been talk of a similar late grab on the rotation side of things. As recently as Friday, the ’Stros were reported to be in “serious” pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but there’s been some doubt cast on the team’s willingness to pay Snell a $30MM annual salary. Doing so would push Houston into the third tier of luxury penalization, resulting in just over $12MM of taxes (on top of Snell’s actual salary). It’d also cause Houston’s top pick in next year’s draft to drop by 10 places and would require the Astros to forfeit their second-highest pick (currently in the third round, as they forfeited their second-rounder to sign Hader) as well as $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency.

For Urquidy, this will mark the third time in four seasons he’ll head to the injured list. In 2021, a pair of shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings. He was healthy enough to avoid the IL entirely and pitch in 29 games (28 starts) for Houston in 2022, but last year saw a return of some shoulder pain. Urquidy was placed on the injured list on May 1 and didn’t return until Aug. 6, ultimately pitching just 63 innings on the year.

When he’s healthy, there’s little doubt Urquidy is a quality big league pitcher. He was dinged for a 5.29 ERA in last year’s relatively small sample and likely wasn’t pitching at 100% prior to that IL stint, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every other season of his career. In 405 big league innings, Urquidy has a solid 3.98 earned run average with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but a very strong 5.8% walk rate. As an undersized righty (6’0″) with fly-ball tendencies and an average fastball, he’s susceptible to home runs  (1.49 HR/9). But Urquidy’s plus changeup has helped him neutralize lefties throughout his career, holding them to an awful  .203/.255/.364 slash.

It’s not yet clear how long Urquidy will spend on the shelf, but pairing his absence with that of Verlander —  plus the previously known season-opening IL stints for Garcia and McCullers — has already begun to test the Astros’ rotation depth. Add in that right-hander Shawn Dubin has yet to pitch this spring due to shoulder discomfort of his own, and Houston is all the more thin in that department. Swingman Brandon Bielak would probably be the next man up in the event of a further injury, and after him the Astros don’t even have another healthy starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been mentioned as a possible option, though he’d need to be selected to the 40-man roster.

As such, even if it’s not Snell or Jordan Montgomery, it seems as though the Astros would make sense for further pitching reinforcements. General manager Dana Brown has gone back and forth on the team’s stance. When announcing that Verlander would open the year on the IL, he suggested the team wasn’t in the market for additional rotation help. Last week, after Urquidy pulled himself after 43 pitches when he’d been slated to throw around 60, Brown reversed course and said he’s “always” in the market for rotation help and even went so far as to acknowledge that so long as Snell remained on the market, the Astros would be checking in on his price tag and where things stood.

If not Snell or Montgomery, the market offers a handful of veteran names. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are both free agents, as is old friend Zack Greinke. There will also be a handful of options hitting the market late in camp, as veterans who are on non-roster deals with other teams are released or opt out of those deals upon being informed they won’t make the club. There’ll also be some arms available via the DFA market, as teams make corresponding moves to set their 40-man rosters. Some form of rotation addition seems quite plausible for Houston in the next ten days.

It’s a concerning development for a Houston club that will see Justin Verlander open the season on the injured list and knows it’ll be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the early portion of the 2024 campaign as well. Prior to this news, it looked as though Urquidy would join Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the Astros’ Opening Day rotation. That’s no sure thing now.

Urquidy, 28, missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with a shoulder injury, which only makes further arm troubles all the more ominous. He pitched to a career-worst 5.29 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) and the highest walk rate (9.1%) he’s turned in during any big league season.

Prior to last year’s rough showing, Urquidy was a steady and arguably underrated member of the Houston staff. From 2019-22, he pitched 342 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but an excellent 5.2% walk rate. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but he’s been effective more often than not when he’s taken the ball.

The mounting number of injuries on the Houston staff could potentially spur the team to action. General manager Dana Brown said not even two weeks ago that he wasn’t in the market for more starting pitching … only to suggest the opposite to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle this week. Rome, citing a multiple anonymous sources, reported that the ’Stros are indeed still in the market for arms. Brown spoke in generalities when asked about Blake Snell, telling Rome: “As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.”

It’s telling that those comments came even before today’s potential injury to Urquidy. Presumably, if there’s real concern that Urquidy might miss some time, that would only hasten the team’s desire to add to the rotation, whether in the form of Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any of the other arms the free agent or trade market may have to offer. Crane did act aggressively and decisively when the Astros found out they’d lost setup man Kendall Graveman for the season, surprising many onlookers by signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract.

Snell, of course, would be the costliest free agent on the market in terms of financial outlay and future considerations. Because he rejected a qualifying offer, Snell would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s international free agent bonus pool. Since they already punted a second-round pick to sign Hader, however, that’d “only” be a third-round pick.

Since the Astros are already at a projected $255.7MM of luxury obligations (per RosterResource), signing Snell would push that figure past the $257MM second-tier threshold and past the third-tier $277MM threshold. That $277MM line is of particular note, as crossing that barrier drops a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 places.

Any additional players signed by the Astros would be subject to penalty under the luxury tax, although because Houston didn’t pay the tax last year, they’re considered a first-time offender. That subjects them to much lesser fees than third-time offenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. Houston would owe a 20% tax on the next $1.3MM spent, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM. That tax would be based on the annual value of the contract.

A $30MM AAV on a Snell deal, for instance, would cost the Astros around $12.1MM in luxury taxes. That’s a steep price, but it’s nowhere near the 110% tax rate the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and others would face. Whether that makes it palatable enough for owner Jim Crane to further add to what’s already a franchise-record payroll by a wide margin remains to be seen.

Dec. 15: Front office personnel from opposing teams are “monitoring” the possibility of the Astros trading star left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 30-year-old is coming off his second straight top 10 Cy Young finish.

It’s unsurprising to hear opposing clubs are keeping their eye on Valdez. He’d be an upgrade for any rotation in MLB. He has reached 31 starts in each of the past two seasons, leading the American League with 201 1/3 innings back in 2022. Valdez has paired that volume with excellent results, working to a 3.40 ERA over parts of six seasons in the big leagues. He has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine over the past three years, striking out 23.5% of batters faced and keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 63% clip.

Given that level of success, plenty of teams would be interested if the Astros put Valdez on the trade market. There’s no indication the Houston front office is seriously entertaining that possibility at this point. In response to trade chatter about third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston GM Dana Brown flatly shot down the idea at the Winter Meetings, saying the team is “trying to win here.”

The club could take a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has taken some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss roughly half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.

Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is tied to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222MM, well above last year’s approximate $180MM Opening Day figure. They’re projected right at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1MM salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically strong season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18MM range in 2025. Valdez is on track to hit free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend key players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term deal with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.

While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of needs on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending room for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a barren farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.

One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5MM salary, so the cost savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could look to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have looked to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen help isn’t far-fetched.

Urquidy, 28, made just six starts this season prior to going on the injured list with what was initially described as shoulder discomfort at the beginning of May. Urquidy was initially expected to be ready around the All-Star break, but fell behind that timetable as he has spent the past three weeks on a minor league rehab assignment, during which time he has posted a 4.50 ERA across four starts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Prior to going on the shelf, Urquidy had struggled to open the 2023 campaign, with a 5.20 ERA, 5.62 FIP, and a diminished 18.7% strikeout rate across 27 2/3 innings of work.

Despite his struggles and injuries this season, Urquidy’s return is nonetheless surely a relief for the Astros. With Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all on the shelf throughout the 2023 campaign to this point, the Astros have been forced to rely on youngsters like JP France, Brandon Bielak, and Ronel Blanco to fill in alongside regulars Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. With the return of Justin Verlander at the trade deadline and now Urquidy’s return from the injured list, the club’s rotation of Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Urquidy and rookie Hunter Brown is now firing on all cylinders. The Astros currently hold an AL Wild Card spot and figure to attempt to catch the AL West-leading Rangers over the next two months, with 2.5 games separating the division rivals.

Clearing the way for Urquidy’s return to the active roster is Mushinski, who sports a 2.79 ERA in 9 2/3 innings of work out of the Astros’ bullpen this season. Going forward he’ll return to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land, where he sports a 2.86 ERA in 22 innings of work this season, as he awaits his next big league opportunity. Meanwhile, Watkins appears poised to exit the Astros organization just six weeks after the club acquired him in a cash deal with the Orioles. Watkins never made an appearance with the big league club in Houston, but he has previous big league experience in the form of 39 appearances (30 starts) with the Orioles between 2021 and 2022, during which he posted a 5.85 ERA and 4.97 FIP in 160 innings of work.

The Astros will now have seven days to waive or release Watkins, who they will have the option of assigning outright to Triple-A in the event he is successfully passed through waivers. That being said, it’s certainly possible a rival club in need of rotation depth could see value in Watkins as an optionable starter who can be stashed in the minors as a potential fill-in option down the stretch.

In recent weeks, general manager Dana Brown has publicly declared his two top needs at the trade deadline to be a left-handed bat and a starting pitcher. For much of the summer, Brown had suggested the bat was the larger priority, but just yesterday he flipped the script and indicated that pitching help is perhaps an even greater need. That’s understandable, as the ’Stros have not only been without Urquidy but also Lance McCullers Jr. (season-ending flexor surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). To top it off, ace Framber Valdez has been pitching through a sprained ankle in recent weeks, while righty Cristian Javier had his most recent start skipped to “give him a breather” after a run of poor results, per Brown.

The looming returns of Alvarez and Urquidy — barring any setbacks during their respective rehab stints — surely doesn’t quell the Astros’ desire to add help in either area. Brown’s comments on his team’s needs were made with full knowledge that both players would be returning at some point before the deadline (or perhaps shortly after, in Urquidy’s case). Even if both could be inserted into the lineup immediately after the break, the Astros would still have glaring needs.

In the rotation, Houston is currently relying on Valdez and a trio of inexperienced arms: top prospect Hunter Brown, swingman Brandon Bielak and rookie J.P. France. Presumably, Javier will rejoin the group after the break, and the Astros have also taken looks at righties Ronel Blanco and Shawn Dubin — both currently in Triple-A. There’s minimal depth beyond that group, and France’s strong 3.26 ERA to date isn’t supported by his shakier under-the-surface numbers. Most of the team’s young arms are also already nearing last year’s season-long workload; their innings could present concerns in the final 72 games.

Adding Alvarez and his characteristically excellent .277/.388/.589 batting line (and 17 homers) back into the lineup will be an obvious boon, but the Astros likely need more help than that. Jose Altuve is back on the injured list due to an oblique strain of his own, and Houston hitters have been a middle-of-the-pack group overall. The Astros rank 10th in the Majors in runs scored (417), 17th in batting average (.247), 19th in on-base percentage (.316) and 14th in slugging percentage (.407). The only left-handed bat in the lineup with Alvarez out has been outfielder Kyle Tucker. The hope had been that Michael Brantley would make his season debut soon, but manager Dusty Baker revealed earlier this month that the veteran hitter had “plateaued” in his efforts to make it back from 2022 shoulder surgery; a timetable for his return remains unclear.