Leclerc, 31, jumps across the American League West. He had spent his entire career with the Rangers up until now. During his time in Texas, he has shown flashes of excellence as a reliever. In general, his career has been defined by a strong ability to get strikeouts but also some poor control.

Overall, he has 360 1/3 innings under his belt to this point, having allowed 3.27 earned runs per nine. His 31.2% strikeout rate is a very strong number but his 13.2% walk rate is much higher than average.

That lack of control has made his performance somewhat inconsistent. He was once the primary closer for the Rangers, having earned 12 saves in 2018 and 14 more the year after. But he missed essentially all of the next two seasons. A right teres muscle tear limited him to just two appearances during the shortened 2020 season. He then required Tommy John surgery in March of 2021, which wiped out that whole year.

Since coming back, he hasn’t been able to retake the closer’s role, with just 12 saves over the past three years combined. However, his control has actually been better lately, at least relative to his own previous performance. He had a 14.9% walk rate as of his Tommy John surgery. Since coming back, he has only walked 11.3% of batters faced. That’s still a high number, as league average is usually in the 8-9% range, but it was a noticeable improvement.

From the start of the 2022 season to the present, he has a 3.36 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and, as mentioned, an 11.3% walk rate. His 3.60 FIP and 3.58 SIERA are marginally higher than his ERA, likely because his .271 batting average on balls in play and 76.5% strand rate are a bit on the fortunate side. He also formed a notable portion of the Texas relief corps during their World Series run, tossing 13 2/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA during the 2023 postseason.

His ERA did jump to 4.32 in 2024, but that doesn’t seem to have been his fault. His .314 BABIP was actually on the high side last year. His 30.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were pretty close to what he has done before. His 3.48 FIP and 3.26 SIERA both suggest he was pretty similar to the guy he was going into the year.

In addition to the strikeouts, Leclerc has often been good at avoiding damage. Statcast had his hard hit rate at 30.7% last year, which placed him in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers. That was actually above his career rate of 29.3%. His 87.4 mile per hour average exit velocity was in the 84th percentile last year. Again, his career average of 86.4 mph is even better. The pitch velocity on his four-seam fastball and sinker both averaged around 95 miles per hour, while he also mixed in a slider, cutter and changeup.

It’s an interesting buy-low move for the A’s, since they are grabbing Leclerc after a rough year in the ERA department, but with encouraging numbers under the hood. They already have one of the best closers in the league in Mason Miller, so they can use Leclerc in a setup capacity.

The club has been surprisingly aggressive this winter in bolstering the roster. They gave a big deal to sign free agent right-hander Luis Severino, acquired lefty Jeffrey Springs from the Rays and signed outfielder/designated hitter Brent Rooker to a five-year extension.

Cynically, this likely has a lot to do with the club having to spend its revenue-sharing money in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA, but they are making some notable improvements nonetheless. The team went 32-32 in the second half of 2024 after graduating a lot of young talent to the majors, so it’s not impossible for them to be a surprise contender in 2025, especially with their new additions. Though if that doesn’t come to pass and they are still shy of contention, Leclerc could then be traded prior to the summer deadline as long as he’s having a strong year, since he’s only on a one-year deal.

Leclerc’s pact takes the club’s payroll to $74MM and their competitive balance tax number to $106MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. Reporting has indicated the club needs a CBT number of $105MM to avoid that grievance, but a final CBT calculation doesn’t come until the end of the year. The A’s might want to push it a bit further, just in case they end up trading players like Leclerc at the deadline and knocking that number down. Otherwise, their deadline dealings would have to be fairly revenue neutral.

Klein, 25, was one of three players that the A’s just acquired from the Royals in the Lucas Erceg trade at last year’s deadline. He didn’t have much big league experience prior to the deal and the A’s mostly kept him on optional assignment. He currently has 7 2/3 innings of MLB experience with nine earned runs allowed.

That’s obviously not a huge sample size and the A’s surely acquired Klein based on his larger sample of work in the minors. His numbers on the farm are vaguely Leclerc-esque, since he has been able to get strikeouts but has also given out plenty of walks. He has 221 1/3 minor league frames under his belt with a 5.16 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate and 16.2% walk rate.

The punchouts are attractive but even those faded in 2024. He tossed 43 Triple-A innings on the year between the two organizations, with a 22.4% strikeout rate and the walk rate still up at 16.7%. The 3.77 ERA wasn’t bad but a .234 BABIP and 75.4% strand rate surely helped him there, which is why he had a 5.42 FIP.

The Erceg deal was considered light by many observers at the time. It can often be difficult to grade a trade so soon after it’s consummated but it doesn’t bode well for the A’s that they are now potentially moving on from one of the three players they got in return.

They will now have a week to figure out Klein’s fate, whether that’s a trade or something on the waiver wire. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so that leaves five days for trade talks. He still has a couple of option years left, meaning any acquiring club could potentially keep him in the minors until he shows improved control.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $10MM guarantee.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Heaney, 32, was regarded as a borderline candidate to opt out of his final year in Texas and return to the open market this offseason. MLBTR readers were polled on Heaney’s upcoming decision last month, with 62% of respondents suggesting that Heaney ought to exercise his player option for the 2024 campaign and return to the Rangers against 38% suggesting he return to the open market this offseason in search of a more lucrative deal.

It’s certainly an understandable decision. After signing in Texas on the heels of a strong albeit injury-shortened campaign with the Dodgers last year, Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023 but saw his results take a turn for the worse: while his 147 1/3 innings of work in 2023 more than doubled the 72 2/3 innings of work he posted in LA, his ERA ballooned from 3.10 last year up to 4.15 in 2023 while he struck out just 23.6% of batters faced after striking out a whopping 35.5% with the Dodgers. Given the downturn in results and his lengthy injury history, it was reasonable to wonder if Heaney would simply be better off hoping for a stronger platform season in 2024 rather than wading into a deep class of free agent starting options.

With Heaney locked in as a member of the Rangers pitching staff for 2024, it leaves Texas with a quality, mid-rotation veteran option available to them as a potential Opening Day rotation option next season. With Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez both heading to the open market and ace righty Jacob deGrom rehabbing Tommy John surgery to open next year, Heaney’s return could theoretically round out a Rangers starting five that already contained Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning. With that being said, both Heaney and Dunning have seen plenty of time in relief roles in the past, leaving the door open for potential additions to the club’s starting group if they look to re-sign Montgomery or add another front-end starter to pair with Scherzer and Eovaldi atop the club’s rotation.

As for Leclerc, the Rangers’ decision to retain the 29-year-old righty is hardly a surprising one. After struggling in 2019 and missing time in 2020 and 2021 due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, Leclerc has been nothing short of excellent for the Rangers the past two seasons, with a 2.75 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.67 FIP in 104 2/3 innings of work the past two seasons. 2023 in particular was a strong season for the righty, as he posted a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP while striking out 28.8% of batters faced. Given those numbers, retaining Leclerc to help anchor the club’s bullpen next season was something of a no-brainer, particularly given the club option Texas holds for his services in 2025.

The bullpen figures to be a major area of focus for the Rangers this offseason. The club’s 4.77 ERA out of the bullpen in 2023 was the seventh-worst figure among all big league clubs, and the Rangers stand to lose flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman and veteran set-up options Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the open market this offseason. While the club has some interesting young arms like left-handers Brock Burke and Cody Bradford who could be relied on to help cover innings, the club will need to restock its relief corps with late-inning options who can surround Leclerc. Of course, a hypothetical addition to the starting rotation could help improve the club’s bullpen as well by kicking either Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role.

Leclerc has a 3.42 ERA over 23 2/3 innings this season, on the strength of some very strong soft-contact numbers, an above-average 25.3% strikeout rate, and an elite 34.3% whiff rate.  However, Leclerc’s work has been undermined by his 15.2% walk rate, which ranks among the worst in the league.  The metrics more or less match up with Leclerc’s numbers over his past full Major League seasons, with the lack of control limiting his ability to be a truly reliable high-leverage arm in the Texas bullpen.  As such, Will Smith took over closing duties from Leclerc earlier this season.

The Rangers signed Leclerc to a four-year, $14.75MM extension in March 2019 in the hopes that he would develop into a top-tier bullpen arm, and that extension got off to a bad start given that Leclerc missed almost all of the 2020 and 2021 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Texas has two club option years attached to the deal, beginning with a $6MM option ($750K buyout) on Leclerc’s services for the 2024 season.  For now, the team’s only concern is on getting the righty back on the mound, as there isn’t yet any indication if Leclerc could be facing a minimal absence or if his sprain is a longer-term concern.

After struggling earlier in the season, the Rangers’ bullpen has stabilized to some extent, even though the relief corps is still a relative weak link on a team that has been otherwise firing on all cylinders.  With Texas leading the AL West and looking like strong contenders to return to the postseason, relief pitching figured to be at the top of the Rangers’ wishlist heading into the trade deadline even prior to Leclerc’s injury.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central

Houston Astros

• Hector Neris: $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout); converts to player option with 40 appearances in 2023

Neris’ option is presently a club provision, but it’s not likely to be for much longer. His free agent deal with the Astros allowed him to convert the third-year option into a player provision in a few ways — one of which was by making a combined 110 appearances between 2022-23. The bullpen workhorse pitched 70 times last year, leaving him just 40 shy of the mark entering 2023. (As is common for provisions like these, he’ll also have to pass a physical at season’s end.)

Manager Dusty Baker has already called upon Neris 25 times this season. He needs just 15 more outings to turn this into a player provision. That’s a lock barring a major injury, with Neris potentially triggering the mark by the All-Star Break.

That could prove lucrative, as he’s building a strong case for another multi-year free agent deal. Neris carries a 1.13 ERA over 24 frames. While he’s obviously not going to keep preventing runs at quite that pace, he’s fanning over 31% of opponents and picking up swinging strikes on a huge 15.4% of his offerings. Even nearing age 34, Neris could push for a two-year deal in the $15-20MM range, where the likes of Joe Kelly and Chris Martin have landed in recent seasons.

Los Angeles Angels

• Aaron Loup: $7.5MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)

The Halos signed Loup to a two-year, $17MM free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was effective enough in year one, though the Angels probably expected better than a 3.84 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate over 58 2/3 innings. That’d be a marked improvement over Loup’s early results this year, however. The 35-year-old has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) with 11 strikeouts and six walks over 13 1/3 frames. Los Angeles looks likely to take the buyout.

Oakland A’s

• Drew Rucinski: $5MM club option (no buyout)

Oakland took a low-cost flier on Rucinski last winter. They signed him to a $3MM guarantee with a promised rotation spot after he’d been an effective starter in South Korea for four seasons. The 34-year-old righty hasn’t had a chance to get on track. He began the year on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He returned to make four starts and was tagged for 22 runs with a ghastly 6:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 innings. Rucinski went back on the IL a few weeks ago with an illness. It’s been a disastrous first couple months and the option is trending towards a declination.

• Manny Piña: $4MM club option (no buyout)

The A’s acquired Piña as a veteran complement to Shea Langeliers in the Sean Murphy trade. He’d been limited to five games last year thanks to a left wrist injury that required surgery. Complications with the wrist flared up in Spring Training and he’s spent this season on the IL as well. The A’s are likely to cut him loose at year’s end.

Texas Rangers

• José Leclerc: $6.25MM club option ($500K buyout)

At his best, Leclerc looks like a quality high-leverage reliever. He misses tons of bats and routinely pushes or exceeds a 30% strikeout rate. Yet he’s paired those whiffs with plenty of free passes. Control has become especially problematic this year, as he’s dished out walks to almost 16% of opponents. Leclerc is carrying a sub-3.00 ERA but benefitting from a .256 average on balls in play.

Leclerc started slowly last season after working back from Tommy John surgery. He caught fire down the stretch, leading Texas to exercise a $6MM option for 2023. There’s still time for him to repeat that pattern but he’ll have to dial in the strike-throwing to do so.

Star winter signing Jacob deGrom was experiencing left-side tightness early in camp, but is scheduled to now throw his first live bullpen session on Wednesday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Fellow off-season recruit Nathan Eovaldi is also experiencing some left-side tightness, and is taking a few days off. Jon Gray was a late scratch from Friday’s spring game with back tightness, while Jake Odorizzi is dealing with arm fatigue and is a bit behind in his schedule. It doesn’t stop there, as Jose LeClerc and Owen White are both feeling neck tightness.

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of concern within the Rangers, and instead it seems the team is just being extra cautious so early in the spring. “When we started spring, in addressing the pitchers especially, we said, ‘Hey, in the early part here, let us know. Anything going on, we don’t want any major setbacks. We can back off at this time.’ Spring training can be pretty long, so in the early part, you’re going to be a little bit more cautious,” manager Bruce Bochy said Friday.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

• Austin Slater had an MRI on his elbow but it came back clear, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants announced during the week that Slater would rest for a week with elbow neuritis. The news that the MRI is clear is certainly a positive one for Slater, and it seems it won’t be long before he’s able to make his spring debut for the team. Slater hit .242/.337/.392 with seven home runs across 259 plate appearances for San Francisco last season, and looks set to serve as a bench bat for the Giants with Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski to get the bulk of the outfield reps.
• The Marlins are giving youngster Jordan Groshans time at first base this spring, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. Groshans typically handled the other infield spots coming up through the minors, and spent just 40 previous innings at first. Groshans is on the fringes of cracking Miami’s opening day roster, but if he can show he can handle first adequately it would certainly provide a boost to his chances. A first round pick by the Blue Jays in 2018, Groshans came over to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass deal last year. He got a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues, hitting .262/.308/.311 across 65 plate appearances. With Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura fairly well locked in as Miami’s infield starters, there’s no obvious path to a starting job there but the Marlins bench is a lot less certain, providing Groshans with a solid chance to stick on the active roster to begin the season.
• Speaking of positional changes, the Yankees are planning to give Oswaldo Cabrera some time in center field this spring, Aaron Boone told the YES Network’s broadcast during today’s game against the Rays. Cabrera impressed during his rookie year, posting a respectable .247/.312/.429 line with six home runs across 171 plate appearances. Yet it was his defense that really stood out, as Cabrera, an infielder for almost all of his career, took to the outfield extremely well, earning nine Defensive Runs Saved for his work on the grass. That’s put him firmly in the race with Aaron Hicks, Estevan Florial and Rafael Ortega to be the Yankees’ opening day left fielder. It does seem more likely he winds up in a utility role though, covering the infield, corner outfield spots, and now, perhaps, center field.

Without further ado…

Angels

• Glenn Albanese Jr.
• Jaime Barria
• Gustavo Campero
• Alan Carter
• Jhonathan Diaz
• Carlos Estevez
• David Fletcher
• Jake Kalish
• D’Shawn Knowles
• Shohei Ohtani
• Jose Quijada
• Luis Rengifo
• Gerardo Reyes
• Patrick Sandoval
• Mike Trout
• Gio Urshela
• Cesar Valdez
• Zack Weiss
• Aaron Whitefield

Astros

• Bryan Abreu
• Jose Altuve
• Ronel Blanco
• Luis Garcia
• Colton Gordon
• Cristian Javier
• Martin Maldonado
• Rafael Montero
• Hector Neris
• Jeremy Pena
• Ryan Pressly
• Andre Scrubb
• Kyle Tucker
• Jose Urquidy
• Derek West

Athletics

• Denzel Clarke
• Jordan Diaz
• Jake Fishman
• Zack Gelof
• James Gonzalez
• Adrian Martinez
• Joshwan Wright

Blue Jays

• Jose Berrios
• Jiorgeny Casimiri
• Yimi Garcia
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Spencer Horwitz
• Alejandro Kirk
• Otto Lopez
• Damiano Palmegiani

Braves

• Ronald Acuna Jr.
• Luis De Avila
• Roel Ramirez
• Alan Rangel
• Eddie Rosario
• Chadwick Tromp

Brewers

• Willy Adames
• Sal Frelick
• Alex Hall
• Matt Hardy
• Joel Payamps
• Rowdy Tellez
• Abraham Toro
• Luis Urias
• Michele Vassalotti
• Devin Williams

Cardinals

• Nolan Arenado
• Genesis Cabrera
• Tommy Edman
• Giovanny Gallegos
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Ivan Herrera
• Matt Koperniak
• Noah Mendlinger
• Oscar Mercado
• Miles Mikolas
• Lars Nootbaar
• Tyler O’Neill
• JoJo Romero
• Adam Wainwright
• Guillermo Zuniga

Cubs

• Javier Assad
• Owen Caissie
• Danis Correa
• Ben DeLuzio
• Roenis Elias
• Miles Mastrobuoni
• Matt Mervis
• B.J. Murray Jr.
• Vinny Nittoli
• Fabian Pertuz
• Liam Spence
• Seiya Suzuki
• Marcus Stroman
• Pedro Strop
• Nelson Velazquez
• Jared Young

Diamondbacks

• Dominic Fletcher
• Jakob Goldfarb
• Gunnar Groen
• Merrill Kelly
• Ketel Marte
• Eric Mendez
• Dominic Miroglio
• Emmanuel Rivera
• Jacob Steinmetz
• Mitchell Stumpo
• Alek Thomas

Dodgers

• Austin Barnes
• Mookie Betts
• Freddie Freeman
• Clayton Kershaw
• Adam Kolarek
• Miguel Rojas
• Will Smith
• Trayce Thompson
• Julio Urias

Giants

• Jonathan Bermudez
• Camilo Doval
• Joey Marciano
• Joc Pederson

Guardians

• Enyel De Los Santos
• Dayan Frias
• Andres Gimenez
• Bo Naylor
• Richie Palacios
• Cal Quantrill
• Cade Smith
• Meibrys Viloria
• Josh Wolf

Marlins

• Sandy Alcantara
• Luis Arraez
• Johnny Cueto
• Jesus Luzardo
• Anthony Maldonado
• Jean Segura

Mariners

• Matt Brash
• Diego Castillo
• Matt Festa
• Harry Ford
• Teoscar Hernandez
• Milkar Perez
• Julio Rodriguez
• Eugenio Suarez
• Blake Townsend

Mets

• Pete Alonso
• Jonathan Arauz
• Edwin Diaz
• Eduardo Escobar
• Dominic Hamel
• Elieser Hernandez
• Francisco Lindor
• Jeff McNeil
• Omar Narvaez
• Cam Opp
• Adam Ottavino
• Jose Quintana
• Brooks Raley
• Claudio Scotti

Nationals

• Alberto Baldonado
• Paolo Espino
• Lucius Fox
• Alberto Guerrero
• Joey Meneses
• Erasmo Ramirez

Orioles

• Daniel Federman
• Darwinzon Hernandez
• Dean Kremer
• Cedric Mullins
• Anthony Santander
• Rodney Theophile

Padres

• Xander Bogaerts
• Nabil Crismatt
• Nelson Cruz
• Jarryd Dale
• Yu Darvish
• Jose Espada
• Ruben Galindo
• Luis Garcia
• Ha-Seong Kim
• Manny Machado
• Nick Martinez
• Evan Mendoza
• Juan Soto
• Brett Sullivan
• Julio Teheran

Phillies

• Jose Alvarado
• Erubiel Armenta
• Malik Binns
• Jaydenn Estanista
• Vito Friscia
• Brian Marconi
• J.T. Realmuto
• Kyle Schwarber
• Noah Skirrow
• Gregory Soto
• Garrett Stubbs
• Ranger Suarez
• Trea Turner
• Taijuan Walker
• Rixon Wingrove

Pirates

• David Bednar
• Tsung-Che Cheng
• Roansy Contreras
• Alessandro Ercolani
• Santiago Florez
• Jarlin Garcia
• Antwone Kelly
• Josh Palacios
• Jeffrey Passantino
• Tahnaj Thomas
• Duane Underwood Jr.
• Chavez Young
• Rob Zastryzny

Rangers

• Mitch Bratt
• Jose Leclerc
• Martin Perez

Rays

• Jason Adam
• Jonathan Aranda
• Randy Arozarena
• Christian Bethancourt
• Trevor Brigden
• Wander Franco
• Andrew Gross
• Joe LaSorsa
• Francisco Mejia
• Isaac Paredes
• Harold Ramirez
• Graham Spraker

Red Sox

• Jorge Alfaro
• Richard Bleier
• Rafael Devers
• Jarren Duran
• Ian Gibaut
• Rio Gomez
• Norwith Gudino
• Enrique Hernandez
• Nick Pivetta
• Henry Ramos
• Alex Verdugo
• Masataka Yoshida

Reds

• Donovan Benoit
• Silvino Bracho
• Luis Cessa
• Fernando Cruz
• Alexis Diaz
• Arij Fransen
• Kyle Glogoski
• Tayron Guerrero
• Evan Kravetz
• Nicolo Pinazzi
• Reiver Sanmartin
• Vin Timpanelli

Rockies

• Daniel Bard
• Jake Bird
• Yonathan Daza
• Elias Diaz
• Kyle Freeland
• Justin Lawrence
• German Marquez
• Michael Petersen
• Alan Trejo

Royals

• Max Castillo
• Robbie Glendinning
• Carlos Hernandez
• Nicky Lopez
• MJ Melendez
• Vinnie Pasquantino
• Salvador Perez
• Brady Singer
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Angel Zerpa

Tigers

• Javier Baez
• Miguel Cabrera
• Chavez Fernander
• Andy Ibanez
• Jack O’Loughlin
• Jacob Robson
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Jonathan Schoop
• John Valente

Twins

• Jose De Leon
• Edouard Julien
• Jorge Lopez
• Pablo Lopez
• Carlos Luna
• Jose Miranda
• Jovani Moran
• Emilio Pagan
• Christian Vazquez

White Sox

• Tim Anderson
• Kendall Graveman
• Eloy Jimenez
• Lance Lynn
• Yoan Moncada
• Nicholas Padilla
• Luis Robert
• Jose Ruiz

Yankees

• Indigo Diaz
• Kyle Higashioka
• Jonathan Loaisiga
• Gleyber Torres

The bullpen wasn’t an especially glaring weak point for the Rangers last year. Their collective 3.72 ERA was ranked 12th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. However, they lost Matt Moore and his 1.95 ERA last year when the lefty became a free agent at season’s end. They also don’t have an established closer, with various players having been given the job in recent years only to be felled by injuries and/or underperformance. The club’s saves leader in 2022 was Joe Barlow with 13, though the last one came in June as he spent much of the second half of the year on the injured list. As the club was holding Rangers Fan Fest this weekend, Levi Weaver of The Athletic discussed the situation with general manager Chris Young, who listed José Leclerc, Jonathan Hernández, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Brett Martin as some of the candidates to take over the closing duties, though Martin won’t be a short-term option since he recently underwent shoulder surgery that’s could wipe out his entire 2023 campaign.

Leclerc, 29, already had the closer’s role once upon a time. He racked up 12 saves in 2018 and 14 in 2019. However, his ERA jumped from 1.56 in that former season to 4.33 in the latter. He then missed most of the next two seasons due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He returned to the Rangers in June of last year and allowed five earned runs in his first three outings but posted a 2.01 ERA the rest of the way. He seemed to retake the closer’s job over the final months of the season, earning seven saves between August and September. He’s arguably the frontrunner and Young said Leclerc “could easily be the closer.”

Hernández, 26, is on a similar trajectory to Leclerc, in the sense that he underwent Tommy John in April of 2021. Prior to going under the knife, he had a nice breakout in 2020. He tossed 31 frames that year with a 2.90 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. After missing 2021, he returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. His control didn’t fully come back to him, as he walked 13% of batters faced, but he kept the ball on the ground at a 62.4% clip. His closing experience is quite limited, with his four career saves all coming in a two-week stretch from late July to mid-August of last year. Teams generally prefer their closers to be reliable strikeout guys, which might work against Hernández since he only punched out 20.6% of opponents last year. Perhaps he can get some punchouts back now that he’s further removed from the surgery, and Young expressed his belief that Hernández could take on the role.

Kennedy, 38, would provide a more experienced option, though that won’t necessarily make him more reliable. A long-time starter, he moved to the bullpen in recent years but has seen wild fluctuations in his performance. He racked up 30 saves for the Royals in 2019 with a 3.41 ERA, but then had an ERA of 9.00 in the shortened 2020 campaign while being limited by injury to just 15 appearances. He joined the Rangers in 2021 and got back on track, registering a 3.20 ERA and saving 26 games between them and the Phillies after a midseason trade. But with the Diamondbacks last year, his ERA shot up to 5.36 while his strikeout rate plummeted to 19% after being at 27.2% in the prior season.

Duffy, 34, is another veteran option, though in a much different way. He has just one save, which came back in 2015. Most of his career has been spent as a starter, with just 30 relief appearances scattered over his time in the big leagues. He’s also coming off a lengthy absence, having last appeared in the majors in July of 2021. A flexor strain put him on the shelf at that time and he wasn’t able to rehab in time to pitch at all in 2022. The error bars on his 2023 are quite wide, since he posted a 2.51 ERA when last healthy in 2021, but he might need time to get back on track after being down for so long.

One big wild card in the club’s bullpen is left-hander Brock Burke. Young was asked about the southpaw and said he could “potentially” take the closer job and that it’s something he’s discussed with pitching coach Mike Maddux. Burke somewhat quietly had a tremendous breakout campaign in 2022. He made his MLB debut with six starts in 2019 but then missed all of 2020 due to shoulder surgery. He returned to the mound in 2021 but was kept in the Triple-A rotation, where he registered a 5.68 ERA. Last year, however, he took on a multi-inning relief role in the big leagues and dominated, posting a 1.97 ERA in 82 1/3 innings over 52 appearances. He struck out 27.4% of batters faced while walking just 7.3%. It might be tantalizing to see what he could do in a typical single-inning relief role but it sounds like the club doesn’t want to push him in that direction, with Young suggesting Burke could eclipse 100 innings this season. “I’m not sure he gets that in a closer’s role. Or maybe it’s a different type of closer’s role; maybe it’s not as conventional. I don’t want to get too far ahead because we’re not committing to that. It could be a traditional type of closer, but certainly we view Brock as a valuable member of our bullpen and he can pitch a number of different roles that could help us win games.”

Burke himself admits that he held out hope of returning to the rotation until the club revamped it this offseason. “I feel like my role in the bullpen, with the starters we have this year, is going to be very helpful,” he said. “I’m good with whatever they’ve got. If it’s one inning, two innings, break-up innings. Last year, I definitely would have said more innings the better, at one (point) but after getting used to going out there for one inning, I was more comfortable, so I hope that this year, whatever role the team needs me for.”

It seems the Rangers are keeping an open mind for the time being and will let the chips fall where they may over the next few months. Health and effectiveness in spring and the early parts of the season will surely help the club’s decision-makers navigate the upcoming campaign.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Leclerc had a dominant season in 2018, putting up a 1.56 ERA over 59 appearances while striking out 38.1% of batters faced. That included high leverage work, as he racked up 12 saves and 15 holds that year. It was enough for he and the club to agree to a four-year, $14.75MM extension with a pair of club options for 2023 and 2024. Unfortunately, he scuffled to a 4.33 ERA in 2019 and then missed most of 2020 and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

He returned healthy in 2022 and seemed to have a bit of rust at first, posting a 4.37 ERA through early August along with a 20.6% strikeout rate. However, he finished quite strong, posting a 1.44 ERA the rest of the way while striking out 33.7% of batters faced. That also included a return to high leverage situations, with Leclerc earning seven saves and four holds on the season, most of those down the stretch. That latter sample is just 25 innings but more closely resembles his form from 2018.

The Rangers have decided to make a $5.25MM bet that Leclerc’s work over the final couple months of the season can be carried over into 2023. They could have bought him out for $750K but will instead pay him a $6MM salary. If he does indeed stay in strong shape next year, they could retain him again in 2024 with another club option, that one valued at $6.25MM with another $750K buyout.

For the Rangers, their bullpen was middle of the pack, putting up a 3.72 ERA that was 12th in the majors. Matt Moore is set to reach free agency after a successful transition from the rotation to the ’pen, but the club has prevented the relief corps from being further weakened by keeping Leclerc around.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

• Jordan Lyles, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

• James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

• Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

• Luis Severino, SP ($15MM option, $2.75MM buyout)

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

• Kevin Kiermaier, CF ($13MM option, $2.5MM buyout)

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

• Anthony Bass, RP ($3MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

• Tim Anderson, SS ($12.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

• Josh Harrison, 2B ($5.5MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

• Bryan Shaw, RP ($4MM option, $500K buyout)

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

• Miguel Sanó, 1B ($14MM option, $3MM buyout)

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

• Sonny Gray, SP ($13.1MM option, no buyout)

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

• Dylan Bundy, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

• Will Smith, RP ($13MM option, $1MM buyout)

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

• Stephen Piscotty, RF ($15MM option, $1MM buyout)

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

• Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

• Garrett Richards, RP ($9MM option, $1MM buyout)

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

• José Leclerc, RP ($6MM option, $750K buyout)

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

• Kole Calhoun, RF ($5.5MM option, no buyout)

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Leclerc’s return is the biggest development for the Rangers, as it marks the end of a 15-month rehab process. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery just before Opening Day last year, costing him a season and a half worth of action. That came on the heels of a 2020 campaign in which he was limited to two appearances because of a shoulder strain, meaning he hasn’t seen extended action since 2019.

Before the health concerns threw his career off track, Leclerc looked as if he might emerge as one of the sport’s better late-inning arms. He’s shown swing-and-miss stuff throughout his career, but he was particularly effective in 2018. Leclerc posted a 1.56 ERA in 57 2/3 innings that season, striking out an elite 38.1% of opponents with a personal-low 11.2% walk rate. The following offseason, Texas signed him to a $14.75MM guarantee to buy out a pair of potential free agent seasons.

Leclerc’s control regressed in the first year of the deal, and he pitched to an underwhelming 4.33 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. Injuries have cost him the next two and a half seasons, but he’ll finally step back into the bullpen for skipper Chris Woodward. He tossed nine innings over as many appearances on a minor league rehab stint before returning to the MLB roster.

The 2022 season is the final guaranteed year of the aforementioned extension. Leclerc is making $5.25MM, and the club holds successive options for the next two seasons. They’ll have to decide on a $6MM option or a $750K buyout at the end of this year, making the next few months particularly critical for Leclerc’s long-term earning potential.

Texas also designated infielder Sherten Apostel for assignment and selected the contracts of veterans Matt Bush, Charlie Culberson and Greg Holland. Right-hander Garrett Richards, meanwhile, has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a blister issue, while righty Jose Leclerc has been placed on the 60-day IL as he continues recovering from last March’s Tommy John surgery.

Hernandez, 24 next month, made his big league debut with Texas last year and batted .217/.315/.252 in 166 trips to the plate. His work in Triple-A, where he slashed .250/.424/.323 in 261 plate appearances, was far better. Hernandez walked at a gaudy 20.3% clip in Triple-A last season and has a penchant for drawing free passes and making contact, albeit rarely with any real power. He’s walked in more than 15% of his professional plate appearances and also possesses plenty of speed, evidenced by 23 steals in the minors and another 11 in the big leagues last season.

Hernandez has experience all over the infield and has all three minor league option years remaining, so he’ll give the D-backs some flexibility and versatility not only in 2022 but for the foreseeable future. He can be controlled for at least the next six seasons, and possibly more, depending on how much big league time he accrues while he has those options remaining.

Espinal, 19, batted a combined .259/.340/.357 between Rookie ball and Low-A last season, with the vast majority of his production coming at the lower of those two levels. Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski wrote at FanGraphs back in January that Espinal has 70 speed on the 20-80 scale but a long swing and serious questions about his overall hitting profile. Espinal did swipe 16 bases in 19 tries last season, but he’ll have a ways to go before the Rangers can even hope to have him as a viable option in the outfield.

Apostel, 23, went 2-for-20 in his big league debut back in 2020 and didn’t appear in the Majors last season. He’s primarily a third baseman but has experience at first base as well. Apostel posted a lackluster .235/.321/.416 across three levels last season, topping out with a sub-par showing in Triple-A Round Rock. The Rangers will have a week to trade Apostel, place him on outright waivers or release him.

As for the D-backs, they’re in the same boat with regard to the 25-year-old Mejia. He’s tallied 32 1/3 big league innings but struggled to a 6.68 ERA in that time, and last year’s work in the minors was not decidedly more encouraging. In 103 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A, Mejia pitched to a combined 5.12 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. Another club in need of some pitching depth might take a look in a small trade or via waivers, but Mejia has not yet found too much success above A-ball.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Leclerc has battled elbow soreness since last week, so this news isn’t surprising, but it will rob him of an entire season and the Rangers of their best reliever. The 27-year-old threw just two innings last season as he dealt with a strain of his right teres muscle, and this latest injury will continue to throw a once-promising career off course.

Between 2016-19, Leclerc threw 187 innings of 3.16 ERA ball, and though he walked almost 15 percent of batters during that span, he helped offset that with a 33 percent strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged upward of 95 mph. The Rangers were so impressed with Leclerc’s work that they signed him to a four-year, $14.75MM extension before 2019. It looked like a worthwhile gamble at the time, but it hasn’t worked out as hoped for Texas because of Leclerc’s arm troubles. His deal still includes one more guaranteed season, in which he’s also sure to miss time as he recovers from this surgery, and two years with club options for $6MM or more or buyouts worth $750K or less apiece.

With Leclerc done for the season, it’s unclear who will open the season as the Rangers’ closer. Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush look like the most logical candidates, as they have game-ending experience and the Rangers selected their contracts over the weekend. Taylor Hearn and Josh Sborz are also among those who could be in the mix. Regardless, the loss of Leclerc is a significant one for the Rangers.