At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Astros trading Ryan Pressly to the Cubs, having the door open a crack to Alex Bregman and maybe moving Jose Altuve to left field (1:15)
• The Braves signing Jurickson Profar (12:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Will Ben Cherington get the Pirates a right fielder before spring training? (21:10)
• What is holding up Jack Flaherty’s market? (23:15)
• Why is the MLB offseason so different from the other sports? (29:00)
• Is there a common thread with the unsigned free agents? (32:50)
• Brett Baty to the Padres and Luis Arráez to the Mets, straight up, no money changing hands. Who says no? (38:45)
• News of the Pirates signing Adam Frazier breaks during recording (39:25)
• Back to the Baty-Arráez question (39:50)
• Should the Cubs get Michael King from the Padres and what would the cost be? (42:50)

Check out our past episodes!

• Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander – listen here
• The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here
• Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

“I said it at the end of the season, said it in the offseason, we need to bring him back,” Altuve said of Bregman, as relayed by Rome. “He’s a big part of this team. You know how negotiations go. He’s a free agent, so he gets the chance to pick the best offer. But as a teammate, I want him back and hopefully we can make something happen for him.”

At the outset of the offseason, Brown made clear that the Astros’ top priority for the winter was keeping Bregman in the fold. Shortly after the winter meetings, however, the odds of a reunion between the two sides began to drastically shrink when the club dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes before following that move up with a failed pursuit of third baseman Nolan Arenado before rounding out their infield by signing first baseman Christian Walker. The additions of Walker and Paredes left the club with an apparently settled infield mix, and at the time Bregman appeared to be receiving strong interest from a number of other clubs.

Since then, however, Bregman’s market has seemed to soften somewhat. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox, and Cubs have all expressed varying levels of interest in the infielder throughout the winter, but many of those suitors have seemed to have interest in Bregman only as a shorter-term addition while his camp has insisted that he remains focused on landing a long-term deal. The lack of movement in Bregman’s market, in conjunction with some apparent frustration within the Astros clubhouse about the club’s decision to replace Bregman in the lineup, has led the sides to begin talking again with Brown calling the discussions “positive” even as a deal coming together remains “a longshot.”

If the Astros were to successfully re-sign Bregman, that would require the club to make a change to its current infield plan. Bregman would dislodge Paredes from his current anticipated role as the club’s regular third baseman, and with Walker in the fold he wouldn’t be able to take over at first base on a regular basis. Yordan Alvarez’s presence as the club’s regular DH makes a move there similarly impossible. That, according to Rome, has led the Astros to consider the possibility of moving Paredes to second base while kicking Altuve from his career-long home at the keystone into the outfield as the club’s regular left fielder.

For Altuve’s part, he’s made it clear he’s on board if that’s what it takes to get Bregman back into the fold. “I want to win and he’s going to be a guy that’s going to make this team better,” Altuve told reporters, including Rome. “We have a better chance to win a championship with him. That’s my answer: I’m willing to do whatever for him to stay.”

It seems likely that if Bregman was brought back into the fold, that would be the alignment the club uses. Rome notes that manager Joe Espada told reporters today that moving Paredes into the outfield is something the club is “not really thinking about.” Neither Altuve nor Paredes have experience on the grass as professionals, though Paredes’s defense on the infield has generally been better regarded by advanced metrics in recent years. 2024 was a particularly rough season for Altuve with the glove, as he was the worst defensive second baseman in baseball according to Defensive Runs Saved and ahead of only Jorge Polanco according to Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.

Paredes, meanwhile, has just 67 games of experience at the keystone across three seasons in the majors but has been a roughly average defender all around the infield to this point in his career. That could make moving Altuve to left field a defensive upgrade to the club’s infield mix while also helping to address the club’s lack of options in the outfield after dealing Tucker. Jake Meyers is locked in as the club’s regular center fielder but the corners appear likely to be shared by Taylor Trammell, Chas McCormick, and Mauricio Dubon as things stand. That trio would be a solid enough solution for one outfield spot but is stretched extremely thin by covering both outfield corners.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros are still “keeping the door ajar” for Bregman. It’s a long-shot pairing in light of the new-look corner infield in Houston, but the team has at least considered a scenario where they’d move Paredes to second base and play Jose Altuve in left field, should Bregman ultimately return. It’s an out-of-the-box solution, but the Astros have been (unsuccessfully) hunting for outfielders in free agency and trade. Nightengale adds that the Astros “aren’t optimistic” about their chances, however, adding that Bregman presently has at least two serious offers in hand.

Beyond the roster considerations, there’s the financial aspect to consider. Owner Jim Crane has publicly stated that he has the “wherewithal” to match last year’s $244MM payroll and $262MM worth of luxury obligations, though the team’s actions this winter have suggested otherwise, to an extent. Houston traded its best player, Tucker, to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect/2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. They’ve also reportedly been shopping Ryan Pressly, who’s owed $14MM but has full no-trade protection.

That said, Crane suggested when making his comments about 2025 spending that the extent to which the club did or not spend would depend on the specific players available to them. Pushing to a $260MM CBT number again for a free agent who’d be new to the organization and doing so for a longtime cornerstone player whose entire career has been spent with the ’Stros are quite different. One trait Bregman has drawn consistent praise for both from the Astros and in reports citing anonymous coaches and executives around the league is his fiery leadership and clubhouse demeanor. The Astros are more familiar with that than any team, and logic dictates that they’d likely be most willing to pay a premium for it. Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros aout $3MM north of the $241MM luxury barrier. Signing Bregman would put them over with minimal chance of ducking back underneath.

A move to the outfield for Altuve would register as a major surprise, but it’s not exactly hard to see why Houston might ponder it. Altuve’s defensive grades have cratered in the decade since he won his lone career Gold Glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 in both of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at -8 this past season. Altuve made only five errors on the season, but that seems largely due to his inability to get to balls he might’ve had a play on several years ago; Statcast graded Altuve’s range in just the third percentile this past season. His arm strength was similarly panned, landing in the seventh percentile.

There are other alignments that could be considered. The Red Sox, among other teams, have been rumored to view Bregman as a second base option. (Skipper Alex Cora recently spoke on the record about his belief that Bregman could be a plus defender there.) Houston could also leave Bregman and Altuve at their customary spots and move Paredes to left field. However, he’s notably slower than Altuve and has below-average arm strength himself. Altuve still has nearly average speed, and Houston’s left field is smaller than most thanks to the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. The Astros have reportedly been in the market for corner outfield upgrades but have not yet found a deal to their liking.

Bregman has reportedly drawn interest from the Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays and to a lesser extent the Cubs, although Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated he feels next year’s third baseman is “likely” already in the organization. At least to this point, Bregman hasn’t been open to the sort of short-term pacts to which many top free agents acquiesce late in the winter. As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Bregman has received any long-term offers other than the original six-year proposal from Houston. The Tigers have been cast as perhaps the other top landing spot, but talks between the two sides reportedly reached a “standstill” this week.

Alvarez himself spoke to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) after the game as well, telling them through an interpreter that he was hit on the same spot on his knee a couple of weeks ago and that the inflammation from that previous incident had not yet fully gone away when he was struck this afternoon. Alvarez acknowledged he was in “a lot of pain” following the game but suggested that he and the club would see how he feels tomorrow before making any decisions regarding his status.

It’s the second consecutive day the Astros have lost a key player to a hit by pitch, as star second baseman Jose Altuve was removed from yesterday’s game after getting struck in the wrist by a pitch. Altuve wasn’t in the club’s lineup for today’s game, but Kawahara notes that x-rays on the veteran’s wrist came back negative and that the star expected not to miss much time due to the issue. That may still be the case even after he was absent from today’s lineup, as Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) today that Altuve was available off the bench to pinch hit if necessary today, although youngster Grae Kessinger was the one who ultimately replaced Alvarez at DH.

The fact that Altuve, who has slashed an excellent .310/.360/.466 (136 wRC+) across 86 games this year in his 14th year suiting up for the Astros in the majors, is seemingly poised to avoid the IL is surely a relief for fans in Houston as the club attempts to chase down the Mariners in the AL West. Unfortunately, Alvarez may be even more important to the club’s offense. The slugger has hit at his typical elite level this year, slashing .300/.383/.548 with a 158 wRC+ that ranks ninth in the majors across 371 trips to the plate. For an Astros club that has gotten less offensive output than expected from key pieces like Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick, the offense both Alvarez and Altuve provide in the lineup is all the more important, and even a brief absence for either player would be troubling.

While two of the club’s star hitters are dealing with injury issues, a third is making progress toward a return from the IL. Espada also told reporters (including McTaggart) today that outfielder Kyle Tucker did some jogging yesterday as he works his way back from a shin contusion that’s kept him on the injured list for the past month. Espada added that Tucker has also been playing catch and has resumed hitting off a pitching machine. Tucker isn’t expected to return to the club until after the All Star break at this point, but the fact that he’s begun doing some light running and basic drills is an encouraging step forward for a player Houston figures to rely on heavily in the second half.

Prior to being placed on the shelf last month, the 27-year-old was in the midst of a career year, even compared to the standards set by his All-Star campaigns in 2022 and ’23. In 60 games this season prior to going on the shelf, Tucker slashed an incredible .266/.395/.584 with a 174 wRC+. While Tucker’s surprisingly low .245 BABIP holds his overall line down slightly, the outfielder was walking (17.6%) more than he struck out (15.6%) and had slugged 19 homers in just 262 trips to the plate prior to his injury. If he can post numbers in a similar vicinity upon his return to action, Tucker will add another key cog to the club’s lineup and surely help shoulder the load that Alvarez and Altuve have taken on in his absence.

It isn’t exactly a surprise to see the two sides come together on a deal. Dana Brown was hired as the club’s general manager in January of 2023 and almost immediately spoke on the record about how he hoped the club would be able to lock up core players, including Altuve. Shortly thereafter, he said that Altuve “should be in Houston for life.” It was just a couple of days later that Altuve himself said “I hope to retire here, so I think we’re on the same page.” It was in March that Brown pushed the brakes a little, saying extension talks would likely be pushed to after the 2023 campaign, with a deal now coming to fruition. This new extension runs through Altuve’s age-39 season.

This is the third time that Altuve and the Astros have signed an extension, which has kept him with the team as so many others have come and gone. Fairly or unfairly, that has made him the face of the franchise, which is a double-edged sword. For supporters of the club, he provides a through line from their miserable rebuilding years at the start of the previous decade to their incredible run of recent success, which includes a pair of World Series titles and seven straight ALCS appearances. For many others around baseball, his accolades remain tarnished by the 2017 sign-stealing scandal.

However one feels about Altuve’s legacy, there’s no question he remains one of the sport’s best offensive players as he goes into his age-34 campaign. An atypically poor showing during the shortened 2020 season looked as if might signal the start of a decline. That hasn’t been the case. Altuve rebounded with 31 homers and a .278/.350/.489 showing in 2021. He has been even better over the last two seasons. He raked at a .300/.387/.533 clip with 28 homers through 604 trips to the plate two seasons ago.

A thumb fracture sustained when he was hit by a pitch in last year’s World Baseball Classic kept Altuve off the field for the first couple months of the 2023 season. He returned in the middle of May, and while his season was again paused in July by a mild oblique strain, he was no worse for wear when able to take the field. Altuve ran a stellar .335/.404/.544 line in the second half and finished the year with a .311/.393/.522 mark in 410 plate appearances. He concluded with another excellent playoff performance, knocking four home runs while hitting .286 in 11 games.

Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Altuve is a .294/.374/.513 hitter. That offensive productivity is 47 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s easily the best hitting performance by any second baseman and a top 10 mark among all qualified batters. Altuve remains as difficult as ever to strike out and has posted his two highest single-season walk rates within the last two years.

To the extent that the eight-time All-Star has shown any signs of aging, that’s limited to the other side of the ball. Altuve has never been a great defensive second baseman. His glovework has dipped in recent years, although the extent of that drop-off differs depending on the metric. Statcast has graded Altuve around league average. Defensive Runs Saved, on the other hand, estimates that he has been a combined 28 runs worse than an average defensive second baseman over the last two years.

That’s not of much concern for Houston as they retain one of the best players in franchise history for what’ll likely be the remainder of his career. By the time the deal wraps up, Altuve will have spent parts of 19 years in a Houston uniform. Whether the Astros can maintain the kind of team success they’ve had over the last eight years for the rest of the decade remains to be seen. Houston has a number of key players approaching free agency within the next season or two.

Alex Bregman will hit the open market a year from now. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez have two remaining seasons of arbitration control. They’ve successfully locked up Altuve, Cristian Javier and Yordan Alvarez on extensions and have three-plus years of control over the likes of Hunter Brown, Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz. There could be some turnover if Bregman, Tucker and Valdez were to depart, but the Astros are trying to ensure the window doesn’t close entirely.

Altuve’s extension won’t affect their salary commitments for 2024, but he’ll now add a $15MM signing bonus to their ledger. Houston already had a franchise-record level of spending with a projected 2024 payroll approaching $240MM, per Roster Resource. The signing bonus will push their actual spending obligations towards the $250MM mark.

Houston is already well into luxury tax territory, but the deal’s $25MM average annual value won’t count against their CBT obligations until 2025. They now have upwards of $115MM on the books for ’25 and over $100MM in commitments to Altuve, Alvarez, Javier, Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. for 2026.

Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the $125MM guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the specific salary structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

• Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
• Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.

Despite a plethora of needs up and down the roster, general manager Dana Brown openly acknowledged at this week’s GM Meetings that his team doesn’t “have a ton” of financial flexibility heading into the offseason (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). That’s unwelcome news for ’Stros fans, though Brown suggested that if the right situation presented itself, owner Jim Crane might push beyond his current comfort levels.

As it stands, strong rookie performances from the likes of Hunter Brown and J.P. France give Houston a quality group of six starters on which to lean. Reacquired ace Justin Verlander, lefty Framber Valdez and righties Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy round out the rotation options.

Verlander will pitch next season at 41, however, while Valdez and Javier faltered a bit as the year wore on; Javier’s rotation spot was skipped a couple times over the summer as he labored through mixed results, while Valdez turned in a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over his final 99 innings before being rocked for 12 earned runs in 12 postseason frames. Urquidy spent several months on the injured list and turned in 73 innings of 5.30 ERA ball between the regular season and playoffs combined.

The depth beyond those six is more concerning. Righties Shawn Dubin and Brandon Bielak both had rough showings in Triple-A. The latter tossed 80 innings of 3.83 ball in the big leagues but did so with a 10.2% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and too many home runs allowed (1.35 HR/9) to necessarily bank on a repeat. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, also on the 40-man roster, posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 Triple-A frames.

Brown indicated to reporters that he’d be open to opportunities to add “a legit third starter or better.” Logically speaking, doing so without radically increasing the payroll would likely require operating on the trade market rather than in free agency. It sounds as though that’s viewed more as a luxury than a priority anyhow; McCullers and Garcia are expected back sometime in July, and Brown instead called the bullpen and backup catcher “priorities.”

To that end, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that the ’Stros and longtime catcher Martin Maldonado could continue their relationship. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the two parties have mutual interest in a reunion, adding that Brown has already met with Maldonado’s agent, Dan Lozano, during this week’s GM Meetings. The Astros have publicly declared that Yainer Diaz will be their primary catcher in 2024, but as Brown himself spelled out, adding an experienced backup is a goal.

Houston has stuck with Maldonado for four and a half years despite the fact that he’s perhaps been MLB’s least-productive hitter during that time. Over the past three seasons in particular, Maldonado has been a liability at the dish. In 1212 plate appearances since 2021, he’s turned in a .183/.260/.333 — about 34% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. However, the Astros are enamored of Maldonado’s game-calling, game-planning and broad defensive skills. Maldonado ranks among the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past four years, although his framing skills fell off a cliff in 2023 and his caught-stealing rate has steadily declined.

Houston clearly loves Maldonado’s work with their pitching staff, however, and the organization would surely welcome him working in a mentor role to Diaz, whom they hope can cement himself as the catcher of the future. Add in that a new deal with Maldonado in a reduced role would undoubtedly be a low-cost arrangement, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see them hammer something out. Maldonado earned $5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM last year.

Maldonado isn’t the only former Astro who’s on the radar. Via Rome, Brown acknowledged that he’s also spoken with Neris’ representatives at Octagon about a new deal, though there’s no indication a new deal is close to fruition. Neris turned down an $8.5MM player option and although he’s 34 years old will quite likely be able to secure a multi-year pact on the open market this winter after turning in a sub-2.00 ERA in his second season with Houston.

Turning to a pair of Astros icons, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering the final year of their contracts. Brown has been forthcoming about his desire to make the pair lifelong Astros, but agent Scott Boras — who represents both players — said at this week’s meetings that contract talks have not yet begun (link via Kawahara).

Astros fans will want to check out the pieces from both Kawahara and Rome in full, as they’re rife with refreshingly straightforward answers from Brown — the type of candor that many of his peers throughout the league generally shy away from offering. Beyond acknowledging priorities in the bullpen and behind the plate as well as interest in bolstering the rotation, Brown suggested that outfield won’t be a primary focus this offseason, given the presence of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers. That doesn’t expressly rule out an addition — unexpected opportunities on the trade market, for instance, could always arise — but it doesn’t seem that’s a hot-button issue for the Astros at the moment.

“The Astros privately say their focus is squarely on Altuve,” Nightengale writes, which is perhaps notable simply because Altuve isn’t the only prominent Houston player approaching the end of his deal.  Alex Bregman will also be a free agent after the 2024 season, and Ryan Pressly might also hit the open market since he and the Astros share a $14MM mutual option for 2025 (though this option vests if Pressly makes at least 50 appearances in 2024).  Justin Verlander could also be a free agent if he doesn’t pitch at least 140 innings next season, but if he does hit that threshold, he’ll gain a $35MM player option for 2025 that he might well choose to exercise for what would be his age-42 season.

Of course, nothing is stopping the Astros from also exploring extensions with any of these other players.  However, it could be that Altuve is seen as a particular priority given his status as a franchise icon.  The story of Altuve’s rise from obscure international prospect to cornerstone player has been well-documented, and there isn’t much indication that Altuve is slowing down in his age-33 season.  Though he was limited to 90 games in 2023 due to a broken thumb and an oblique strain, Altuve still hit .311/.393/.522 over 410 plate appearances during the regular season, and he has a .970 OPS over 24 PA in the first five games of the ALCS.

Altuve’s current deal overwrote the last two years of his previous extension with the Astros, and guaranteed him $151MM over the course of the 2020-24 seasons.  Another five-year extension that began with the 2025 season would therefore run through Altuve’s age-39 season, and quite possibly the end of his career.

Estimating a dollar figure for a hypothetical Altuve extension is an interesting exercise, considering that Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation (who also handled the second baseman’s previous deal).  The majority of Scott Boras clients generally head to free agency to let the open market determine their earnings, and Altuve’s performance certainly would seem to still merit a hefty salary even through his mid-to-late 30’s.  That said, it also seems plausible that Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together.  Besides Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander, there is also the trio of Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy all nearing free agency once their arbitration eligibility is up following the 2025 campaign.

The Astros have surpassed the luxury tax threshold only once (in 2020) in franchise history, as Houston has been able to sustain its run of success while keeping their payroll in relative check.  While frequently landing within the top 10 of Opening Day payrolls, Houston ranked only 14th in spending at the start of this season.  The Astros have been willing to let some stars walk, such as Carlos Correa after the 2021 season or Verlander last winter (before Verlander was re-acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline).

Other extensions have also played a role in the Astros’ budget management, as the team was proactive in locking up some young stars relatively early in their careers.  Bregman was signed to a five-year/$100MM extension, Yordan Alvarez to a six-year/$118MM extension, and Cristian Javier to a five-year/$64MM long-term pact.  Alvarez, Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are the only Astros players on the books beyond the 2025 season.

Alvarez, who just turned 26 last month, has cemented himself as one of the sport’s best young hitters in recent seasons. He boasts a .277/.388/.589 slash and 17 homers in just 232 plate appearances this season but has missed more than six weeks due to an oblique strain.

The Astros have posted a solid .252/.323/.433 line as a team even since Alvarez’s injury, but it’s still difficult to overstate just how big a boost his return will provide. Houston general manager Dana Brown has been quite candid about his desire to add a left-handed bat prior to next week’s trade deadline, but Alvarez’s return will at least lessen some of the urgency for such an acquisition.

Altuve has also been on the shelf with an oblique strain, though his wasn’t as severe as the one sustained by Alvarez. He hit the IL nearly a month after his teammate, on July 4, but will nonetheless return on the same day — just three weeks after landing on the shelf.

It’s been an even more frustrating season for Altuve than for Alvarez, from a health standpoint. He missed nearly two months early in the season after suffering a broken thumb during the World Baseball Classic and has only managed to get into the lineup for 32 of the Astros’ games this year. He’s been characteristically excellent when on the field, batting .264/.371/.479 with a career-best 14% walk rate in 143 trips to the plate.

It’s a major pair of returns for Houston that’ll augment the lineup more than any trade might have, but the ’Stros still figure to be active between now and next Tuesday. In addition to Brown’s stated desire to add a left-handed bat with some defensive versatility, he’s also been open about his hopes to add a starting pitcher and a reliever while trades are still permitted.

Houston’s bullpen has been customarily strong this season. They entered play Tuesday ranked fifth in the majors in ERA (3.69) and topping the league with a 27.5% strikeout rate. That production has been built around an excellent top four of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton and Hector Neris. Houston has leaned hard on that quartet, as each has reached 45 appearances.

That’s a mark hit by only 22 pitchers thus far. Abreu leads MLB in appearances, while Maton is tied for second. Brown indicated they’d like another arm so they can ease off the workloads off their top four a bit down the stretch. Uncharacteristically middling performances from Ryne Stanek and Rafael Montero leave the relief depth a bit thinner than it has been in previous seasons, though it’s far from a glaring weakness.

Houston’s bullpen skews overwhelmingly right-handed. That could point toward a southpaw being ideal, but the Astros have been comfortable rolling with righty-heavy bullpens in recent seasons and been no worse for wear. Chris Stratton, Keynan Middleton, Reynaldo López and Kyle Finnegan are among the right-handed options who’d likely be available as middle relief targets. Brooks Raley, Brent Suter, Brad Hand and Sam Moll are among the left-handed trade candidates.

While the bullpen has been mostly healthy, Houston has taken injury hits in the lineup and starting staff. They’re getting healthier as the deadline approaches. Brown confirmed that both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve were near game readiness and could be reinstated from the injured list before tomorrow’s contest against the Rangers, whom Houston trails by one game in the AL West. José Urquidy is a bit further off but could be back within a week to 10 days.

With Urquidy nearing a return, Brown indicated the Astros could be content acquiring an innings-eater towards the back of the starting staff. Houston’s front three of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown is a high-upside trio, although Hunter Brown has some innings concerns and Javier has scuffled lately. “We may not need that frontline starter and that’s going to require us to give away a lot of prospects,” Dana Brown told reporters. “Our top three are really good and so we can just add to that. And (J.P. France) has been outstanding. So we’ll take our three big horses and we put France in the mix and then we’ve got Urquidy back and then maybe just add somebody else that can give us some innings, that could be very sustainable.“

2:35pm: The Astros announced Thursday that second baseman Jose Altuve has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to discomfort in his left oblique. The move is retroactive to July 4. Houston also optioned lefty Parker Mushinski to Triple-A Sugar Land and recalled infielder David Hensley and righty Ronel Blanco in a pair of corresponding moves. Blanco is slated to start tonight in the first of a four-game set against the division-rival Mariners.

Altuve has been out of the lineup the past couple of days after experiencing discomfort in that oblique during batting practice Tuesday. Manager Dusty Baker had already indicated that he’d be held out for a few more games, and the team will opt for a formal IL stint in order to operate with a full bench during an important series against a division rival that is within striking distance of Houston in the AL Wild Card chase. Altuve will now be out until at least next Friday, though the team hasn’t provided an expected timetable for his return. It’s possible he’ll be sidelined beyond that 10-day minimum, but it’s of at least some note that Houston didn’t list the injury as a “strain.”

It’s been a productive season for Altuve — when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, that is. This will be his second IL stint of the season, after he missed the first seven weeks of the 2023 season due to a broken thumb suffered during this year’s World Baseball Classic. Altuve, who just turned 33 a couple days ago, has posted a .264/.371/.479 batting line (138 wRC+) with six home runs, eight doubles, five steals, a 14% walk rate and a 17.5% walk rate in 143 plate appearances when healthy.

During Altuve’s prior absence, utilityman Mauricio Dubon stepped up and filled in more than capably. He’s been in a part-time role since that point but figures to pick up regular at-bats with Altuve sidelined a second time. In 284 plate appearances this season, the 28-year-old Dubon has posted a .292/.317/.417 slash with four homers, 18 doubles, two triples and five steals. He’s walked at just a 3.5% clip but has excelled at making contact, evidenced by a tiny 12% strikeout rate.

Since Kansas City already seems out of the pennant race, that means Garrett should be able to return well before the trade deadline, and perhaps establish himself as a trade chip for a Royals team that is already open to moving relievers.  Garrett is a free agent this winter, making him even more of an obvious trade candidate as a rental player.  Beyond his current health issue, however, the biggest obstacle in the way of a Garrett deal is his garish 17.7% walk rate, the highest yet for a pitcher who has struggled with control over most of his seven MLB seasons.  While Garrett has only a 3.00 ERA over 21 innings and his strikeout (25%) and grounder (48.1%) rates are both respectable, the walk rate certainly stands out as a red flag for any interesting suitors.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

• Jose Altuve didn’t play today and likely won’t play on Sunday, as Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle) that Altuve is dealing with a minor oblique problems.  The second baseman felt discomfort after a swing in Friday’s game, and while the injury isn’t deemed serious enough to merit an MRI, the Astros are naturally being careful with Altuve given how oblique problems can linger or become easily aggravated.  It’s a day-to-day situation for now, though Houston doesn’t have an off-day on the schedule until June 12.
• The Guardians removed Amed Rosario from today’s game in the fourth inning due to left knee soreness.  Rosario is day-to-day for now, and since Cleveland has an off-day on Monday, it seems very likely that Rosario will be sat for Sunday’s game to give him two full days to rest and recover.  Rosario has struggled badly this season, hitting only .224/.270/.314 over 226 plate appearances, and he has the fourth-lowest fWAR (-0.7) of any qualified player in 2023.  Any of Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, or Brayan Rocchio could get more playing time at shortstop if Rosario has to miss an extended amount of time.
• Joely Rodriguez was warming up in preparation of entering tonight’s Rays/Red Sox game, but Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) that Rodriguez had to halt his warmup due to soreness in his bicep and shoulder area.  More will be known once some tests are run, but it certainly looks like Rodriguez could be headed back to the IL.  An oblique injury in Spring Training already delayed Rodriguez’s season debut until May 17, and the left-hander has struggled to an 18.00 ERA over his four innings and five appearances.
• The Marlins told reporters (including Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base) that Avisail Garcia’s rehab assignment has been temporarily halted, as he will receive examination on his sore back.  Garcia has already been on the IL since April 29 due to lower back tightness, so while the team described the setback as “minor,” it is a little worrisome to see Garcia further delayed.  The outfielder has played in four games with Triple-A Jacksonville during his rehab assignment.

The original timetable on Altuve was a two-month recovery period from the surgery, plus some rehab work after that. General manager Dana Brown has said recently, however, that Altuve was ahead of schedule. He’ll indeed return just shy of two months after undergoing surgery on March 22 (and two months, to the day, since the injury itself occurred). He’s played in five minor league rehab games between Double-A and Triple-A, and although he’s gone just 2-for-22 in that time, he and the team clearly feel he’s in a good enough place to return to the big league lineup.

Altuve, 33, had a down year during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but has since rebounded to elite levels of performance. Over the past two seasons, he’s batted a combined .288/.368/.510 with 59 home runs and 23 steals — including a sensational .300/.387/.533 output in 2022.

In place of Altuve, the Astros have primarily leaned on utilityman Mauricio Dubon, who has exceeded any and all expectations since taking the reins at second base. The former Red Sox/Brewers prospect and Giants utilityman, acquired from San Francisco in a trade for catcher Michael Papierski last May, has taken 156 turns at the plate and turned in a .309/.333/.389 batting line with ten doubles, a triple, three steals and above-average glovework in the field.

Altuve will take over the lion’s share of playing time at second base, but Dubon’s performance has surely been impressive enough that manager Dusty Baker will frequently work him into the lineup at other spots. In addition to his work at second base, Dubon has big league experience at shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. He figures to spell Altuve and other Astros regulars while moving around the diamond going forward.

The return of Altuve should be a jolt for an Astros lineup that has been surprisingly been below-average. Houston ranks 25th in the Majors with 38 home runs and is tied for 16th with 191 runs scored. Astros hitters rank 16th in batting average (.244), 21st in on-base percentage (.312) and perhaps most surprisingly, 27th in slugging percentage (.377). They’ve received no production whatsoever out of Jose Abreu, who inked a three-year deal worth $58.5MM this winter, and they’ve yet to get a single game out of Michael Brantley, who’s spent the year on the injured list.

A healthy Altuve would certainly lift the Astros’ production across the board, though only time will tell how quickly he can bounce back from that thumb surgery. The eight-time All-Star, six-time Silver Slugger and three-time American League batting champion is in the penultimate season of a $151MM contract extension he signed prior to the 2018 season. He’s being paid $26MM in 2023 and is slated to earn the same salary in 2024 before becoming a free agent — although Brown has said on record multiple times that he hopes to eventually extend Altuve and keep in Houston for the entirety of his career.

That’s great news for the Astros, who have scuffled to a 19-18 record in the early going this season, behind both the Rangers and Angels in the AL West. While Mauricio Dubon has filled in adequately at second base during Altuve’s absence, his .287/.306/.357 slash line in 134 plate appearances this season pales in comparison to the .300/.387/.533 line Altuve put up last season en route to the third top-5 finish in AL MVP award voting of his career. Houston is certainly hoping their 33-year-old superstar can jog a lineup whose .672 OPS as a team ranks bottom three in the majors.

More from around the American League…

• Carlos Rodon has yet to throw a regular season pitch for the Yankees this season after signing a six-year, $162MM deal with the club this past offseason, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post provides some clarity on the lefty’s timetable for return. Heyman notes that with Rodon resuming throwing today after the cortisone injection he received earlier in the week, the 30-year-old figures to be six weeks away from his Yankees debut, should everything go according to plan. The sooner Rodon is able to return to the Yankees, the better, as the club has fallen to fifth place in the AL East with a 21-18 record to open the season. Rodon, who has posted a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings since the beginning of the 2021 season, would surely bolster a Yankees club that has been forced to rely on Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Domingo German to fill out the club’s rotation behind Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes.
• Twins reliever Ronny Henriquez has been reinstated from the 15-day IL and optioned to Triple-A, per the club’s communication director Dustin Morse. Henriquez, 23 next month, pitched to a 2.31 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work with the Twins as a rookie last season, striking out just 18% of batters faced, though he generated an impressive 52.8% groundball rate. That being said, Henriquez struggled during his rehab assignment this season, with a 4.76 ERA in 5 2/3 innings during that time. Henriquez will look to get right in the minors on a more permanent basis going forward while acting as bullpen depth for the Twins alongside Josh Winder.