The 2024 season was an abject nightmare for Abreu, whose struggles with the Astros led to him getting optioned to Triple-A at one point and eventually released midway through the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM free agent deal that stands as a colossal misstep for the Astros (who were operating without a general manager at the time of the deal, leaving owner Jim Crane to oversee baseball operations decisions). Abreu hit just .237/.296/.383 in year one of the contract but still popped 18 homers and enjoyed a strong finish that created some cautious optimism about the current season. Any such hopes of a rebound quickly faded, however, when Abreu tanked with a calamitous .124/.167/.195 batting line in 120 plate appearances prior to his release.

It was an unfathomable decline for a former AL MVP who was a consistent force in the middle of the White Sox lineup for nine years prior to signing in Houston. Even detractors who pointed to red flags in his batted-ball profile and declining power in his final year with Chicago couldn’t have reasonably predicted a drop-off of such extreme magnitude.

With that type of production (or lack thereof) in the immediate rearview mirror and Abreu’s 38th birthday looming in January, the odds of a resurgence feel fairly slim. That said, Abreu is still locked into the third year of that Astros contract, meaning any team can sign him and owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.

For a player with Abreu’s track record of thunderous production — to say nothing of his frequently cited leadership traits and clubhouse value — taking what amounts to a free look could hold appeal to a number of clubs. That could be especially true for payroll-conscious clubs with younger in-house options who could grow into a more prominent role but are as of yet unproven. Only time will tell whether he shows enough in winter ball to get that opportunity, but his production will be worth tracking; the Puerto Rican Winter League kicks off in November.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Astros releasing José Abreu (2:25)
• The Dodgers dealing with injuries to Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12:30)
• The Yankees are getting Gerrit Cole back but lost Anthony Rizzo (18:25)
• The Braves lose another outfielder with Michael Harris II hitting the injured list (26:55)
• The sad news of Willie Mays passing came out during recording (30:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Do the Giants have a chance of getting Pete Alonso? Or will the Mets make additions if they carry the power of Grimace into the deadline? (32:15)
• How should the Nationals address their outfield surplus? And where did all these good pitchers come from? (42:35)
• What are the chances the White Sox package Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet at the deadline? And if they trade Crochet and Erick Fedde, how will they fill the rotation after? (49:55)

Check out our past episodes!

• Injured Astros, The Chances Of Bad Teams Rebounding In 2025 And More – listen here
• Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth – listen here
• Ángel Hernández Retires, Ronald Acuña Jr. Out For The Season And Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Houston selected the contract of catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel from Triple-A Sugar Land, reports KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander. In 201 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Hummel boasts a .301/.423/.509 slash (135 wRC+) with seven homers, 13 doubles, eight steals (in nine tries), a 17.4% strikeout rate and a massive 16.4% walk rate. The Astros acquired the 29-year-old from the Giants via an April waiver claim and later succeeded in passing him through outright waivers.

While Abreu generally exceeded expectations in landing that sizable three-year deal, few could’ve predicted that the contract would go this poorly. Abreu hit .237/.296/.383 with Houston last season and began the 2024 season in such a calamitous funk that the veteran agreed to be optioned at a point when he was 7-for-71 on the season. Since returning, Abreu hasn’t looked any better, hitting .167/.186/.333 in 43 trips to the plate.

Overall, Abreu’s tenure with the team will come to an end with a shocking .217/.275/.351 batting line in 714 plate appearances. That’s about 28% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. When coupled with below-average defense at first base, Abreu was 1.6 wins below replacement level, per Baseball-Reference, and a full two wins below replacement per FanGraphs.

Although there were some signs of decline in 2022, Abreu still hit .304/.378/.446 that season. A good portion of his power had eroded (hence the pedestrian .141 ISO and career-low 15 homers), and a fair bit of his production was propped up by a .350 average on balls in play that the plodding Abreu was never going to sustain over the long run. The Astros, operating without a general manager for the first portion of the offseason, still paid a hefty per-year price to sign Abreu into his late 30s, with owner Jim Crane spearheading negotiations on that deal and on Rafael Montero’s own surprising three-year pact. Though the length of the pact was a modest surprise, it pales in comparison to how surprising the extent of Abreu’s decline has been.

Between Abreu and Jon Singleton, Houston’s lack of production at first base has been near the bottom of all Major League Baseball. Only the Rockies — Kris Bryant, Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman — have seen their first basemen combine to deliver a lesser output than the Astros’ miserable .181/.262/.291 batting line. That dearth of offense from a typically bat-heavy position in the lineup has been one of many reasons for the Astros’ disappointing 31-38 record. Houston sits eight games back of the division-leading Mariners and six games out in the AL Wild Card hunt (with six teams to leapfrog in order to claim one of those three spots).

Abreu’s contract will now be dead money on the Astros’ payroll both this year and next. It still counts toward the luxury tax as well, even though he’s no longer on the roster. That dead money only further adds to a troubling long-term outlook that raises legitimate questions about the team’s ability to continue putting a perennial contender on the field. Despite their questionable long-term outlook and their 2024 struggles, however, general manager Dana Brown — hired after the signing of Abreu — has insisted that his team will not be a seller and that he expects to operate as a buyer in the run-up to next month’s trade deadline. The Astros reportedly have interest in adding multiple starting pitchers.

As for Abreu himself, he’ll now head to the open market and be able to field interest from other clubs. It’s unlikely that any team will place him directly onto the big league roster in light of his recent struggles, so he’d very likely need to settle for a minor league deal.

Whether Abreu is amenable to that sort of arrangement isn’t clear, but players often want to go out on their own terms rather than be forced from the game they love due to declining performance. Abreu’s willingness to be optioned earlier this season and the constant praise he’s received from teammates both in Chicago and in Houston regarding his work ethic and passion for the game could point a willingness to keep going. Teammates Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena and Kendall Graveman all lauded Abreu’s work ethic last September when discussing his late-season hot streak with Chandler Rome of The Athletic, as well as his impact in the clubhouse. That drive, combined with his sterling clubhouse reputation and outstanding track record in Chicago, could lead to interest on what amounts to a no-risk flier from a team with a need for help at first base and/or against left-handed pitching.

Alvarez has made consecutive starts in left field after previously appearing in only three games at the position. Espada noted that Alvarez picking up outfield at-bats will come at the expense of Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, adding that he’ll still work to keep everyone involved in the mix for playing time. (MVP candidate Kyle Tucker and center fielder Jake Meyers, in the midst of a breakout showing, naturally don’t appear as though their playing time will be impacted.)

Abreu is 1-for-6 with an RBI single since being recalled from a monthlong sojourn to the minor leagues — a rare assignment for a veteran of his status but one to which the former AL MVP consented after a disastrous start to the season. He went 7-for-22 with a homer and a pair of doubles with Houston’s Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate. Abreu then played a pair of games in Triple-A Sugar Land and went 0-for-7 with a walk and three strikeouts.

The Astros are trying what they can to get Abreu back on track after a disappointing debut campaign in 2023 and a calamitous .099/.156/.113 slash through his first 77 plate appearances of the current campaign. It’s not clear what kind of leash Abreu will have, particularly with Houston sitting 6.5 games back in both the AL West and in the AL Wild Card chase, but Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract gives the team plenty of financial incentive to try to turn things around.

Between Abreu and the 32-year-old Singleton, who returned to the majors after a seven-year absence last season, the Astros’ first base mix has been woefully unproductive. Singleton has turned in a .221/.327/.359 slash — roughly league-average offense (102 wRC+) that’s been accompanied by poorly rated defense (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average in 293 innings).

That lackluster output from the team’s first basemen is just one of many reasons the Astros find themselves staring at a 24-32 record with more than a third of the season in the books. The rotation’s health — or rather, the lack thereof — has also been a prominent factor. On that front, Espada provided a mixed bag of updates.

On the positive side of things, right-hander Luis Garcia is continuing to progress well in his rehab from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He threw off a mound at Minute Maid Park last week, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets that the right-hander is now slated to throw to hitters in his next throwing session. McTaggart adds that righty Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on the mend from flexor surgery, threw a bullpen session this week but is still “a few weeks” from facing live hitters.

Facing live hitters and pitching in simulated game settings are often the last steps before an injured pitcher is cleared to set out on a minor league rehab assignment. Garcia will presumably have multiple live batting practice sessions before progressing to a rehab stint, which could last up to 30 days itself. A return isn’t right around the corner just yet, but he’s on track for a midsummer debut this year. McCullers, it seems, isn’t terribly far behind him.

Less encouraging were Espada’s updates on injured right-handers Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. Both are “getting opinions from other doctors,” according to Espada (via McTaggart). Seeking second opinions is always an ominous step for a pitcher, particularly when both are dealing with this type of injury. Urquidy has yet to pitch this season after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. Javier went on the injured list last week with forearm discomfort.

Javier heads to the IL for the second time this season. The right-hander missed a couple weeks between April and May with neck soreness. Forearm discomfort is naturally a more concerning development, but there’s no indication the team believes it to be a serious issue at the moment. It’s nevertheless a frustrating setback for Javier, who has been limited to seven starts this year after avoiding the IL between 2020-23.

Around the injuries, Javier has gotten off to a middling start. He has a reasonable 3.89 ERA over 34 2/3 innings, yet he’s carrying an 18% strikeout rate that would easily be a personal worst. Javier has also walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters and is averaging only 91.7 MPH on his fastball, the softest velocity of his career.

Even a diminished version of Javier has played an important role for a Houston rotation that has battled numerous injuries. He rejoins Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and José Urquidy on the IL. Urquidy was expected to make his return from forearm discomfort in the coming weeks, but he felt renewed soreness during a rehab start last Friday.

Houston has tried to lean on a six-man rotation to navigate an ongoing stretch of 29 games in 30 days. That hasn’t really worked as planned, as Ronel Blanco served a 10-game foreign substance suspension before Javier’s injury. Houston has a five-man starting staff of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti at the moment. Recently-signed lefty Eric Lauer is at Sugar Land as an experienced non-roster depth option.

Abreu is back on the MLB roster after spending nearly a month in the minors. The former MVP is in the lineup at first base tonight, hitting eighth against Seattle right-hander Bryce Miller. Abreu has worked to rediscover his timing after hitting .099/.156/.113 over his first 77 big league plate appearances this season. Lefty-swinging Jon Singleton has been Houston’s primary first baseman since Abreu was optioned; Singleton is at designated hitter tonight.

How Abreu performs over the next two months could be a key storyline as the front office considers its deadline approach. Houston has played their way back to the fringe of the playoff picture after an atrocious start to the season. They’re 24-29, sitting in third place in the AL West at three and a half games behind Seattle. If they’re in contention by late July, the Astros would certainly try to bolster a veteran roster that has won at least one playoff round in seven straight seasons. First base would be an obvious target area unless Abreu authors a remarkable turnaround in the coming weeks.

Abreu, 37, struggled through a down season at the plate last year in his first season with the Astros but began to heat up somewhat late in the season, providing optimism for his second year with the club. Unfortunately, the hot stretch didn’t carry over and the veteran posted a disastrous .099/.156/.113 slash line in 22 games before agreeing to be optioned to the minors in an attempt to overcome the deep struggles that had been plaguing him. Since then, Abreu has appeared in six games in the minor leagues and slashed a respectable .280/.357/.480 in 28 trips to the plate.

If Abreu can show anything close the offensive performance he offered during his time with the White Sox, for whom he never posted a wRC+ less than 14% better than league average, it would provide a huge boost to an Astros club that has scuffled in the early going and currently sits 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West with a 23-29 record that puts them behind both the Mariners and Rangers. Jon Singleton has performed admirably at first base in Abreu’s absence with a 110 wRC+ in 38 games this year, but that includes a paltry .206/.290/.324 slash line against left-handed pitching this year. Abreu, by contrast, produced well against southpaws even last season, when he hit a decent .235/.296/.444 against them in 179 trips to the plate.

More from around the AL West…

• Sticking with the Astros, right-hander Jose Urquidy suffered a tough setback today after exiting a rehab start due to what manager Joe Espada termed “right forearm discomfort,” as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. Urquidy is undergoing evaluation to determine the severity of the issue, but even a brief setback would be an unfortunate turn of events for Houston. Urquidy had been expected to return to the club at some point within the next week, and in doing so would have offered the Astros some much-needed pitching depth amid deep struggles in the rotation. The club is currently utilizing a six-man rotation of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco, but only Blanco and Verlander have been above average by measure of ERA+ and no one in that group has posted a FIP below 4.00 this season.
• Angels superstar Mike Trout spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) prior to today’s game against the Guardians earlier today and offered an optimistic update regarding his rehab from meniscus surgery earlier this month. While Trout didn’t provide a timetable for his return, he noted that he’s “feeling good” as he regains strength in his leg while resuming weight room activity, and added that he’s “pretty close” to beginning to run again. The star center fielder was off to another great start this year prior to the injury, slashing .220/.325/.541 despite a shockingly low .194 BABIP thanks in part to a whopping 10 homers in 29 games. Reporting at the time of his surgery suggested a four-to-six week recovery period was the best case scenario for Trout’s return, although the Angels have since indicated that they’re going to take Trout’s rehab slowly in order to minimize the odds of re-injury.
• The Athletics had a bit of a scare regarding right-hander Austin Adams earlier today in their game against Houston when he was removed from the game due to a bout of left neck tightness. Fortunately, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com) after the game this evening that Adams is day-to-day and probably could have pitched through the issue if necessary, though the club preferred not to risk it. One of several journeymen making the most of their time in Oakland, Adams has been excellent for the A’s this season as he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA with a 3.01 FIP across 23 appearances with a whopping 32.9% strikeout rate. Adams has acted as the primary set-up man to star closer Mason Miller this season, and the 33-year-old is controlled through the end of next season, a fact that could make him a particularly attractive target at the trade deadline this summer if he can stay healthy and effective.

Abreu, 37, rather surprisingly agreed to an optional assignment earlier this year after enduring the worst stretch of his major league career. The former AL MVP opened the season mired in a calamitous slump, hitting just .099/.156/.113 in 77 plate appearances. He’s currently 6-for-18 with a pair of doubles, a walk and two strikeouts — albeit against Rookie-level competition. Any sign of life from Abreu is an encouraging step, given his awful start to the season, however. It seems he’ll get at least a game or two against more advanced Triple-A competition after that confidence booster and mental reset in the ACL.

Abreu is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM free agent contract signed when the Astros were operating without a general manager in place. Owner Jim Crane largely oversaw baseball operations between the surprise ouster of former GM James Click and the hiring of current general manager Dana Brown. That contract gives the club plenty of incentive to try to get Abreu back on track, difficult as his time with the organization has been thus far. Since putting pen to paper, Abreu has mustered only a .221/.280/.352 batting line in 671 plate appearances.

In Abreu’s absence, Jon Singleton has taken up the everyday first base job. He’s turned in a .224/.346/.448 slash in 81 plate appearances with Abreu off the roster, though much of his damage came in the first few games following Abreu’s demotion. Singleton homered last night, but that was his first extra-base hit in nearly two weeks. Between Singleton and Abreu, Houston first basemen have posted a combined .170/.260/.275 line on the season.

Woeful first base production has been just one of many issues for a disappointing Houston club. The Astros’ injury-plagued starting staff has seen major regression from Hunter Brown and J.P. France while rookie Spencer Arrighetti has struggled in his debut campaign. Righty Ronel Blanco is in the midst of a breakout, but stalwart lefty Framber Valdez has been inconsistent. Each of Valdez, Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier has spent time on the injured list already this season.

The Astros are awaiting the eventual returns of notable arms like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., both of whom opened the year on the injured list while rehabbing from major surgeries. Garcia took a notable step in his recovery this week, throwing off the mound at Minute Maid Park, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

The 27-year-old Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery early last May, so he’s now past the one-year mark in his recovery. He’ll still need to face hitters in live batting practice/simulated games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment, so a return isn’t nigh just yet. At the same time, it’s encouraging that he’s progressed to mound work and has yet to incur any sort of setback. In 352 innings from 2020-23, Garcia pitched to a 3.61 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.

Even as the Astros navigate these shorter-term issues, there are still big-picture items to consider. Brown has said countless times since being hired that he hopes to extend outfielder Kyle Tucker and keep the former No. 5 overall pick in Houston for his entire career. He did so again today, appearing on the Sean Salisbury Show on SportsTalk 790 and stating (X links via 790’s Brian LaLima):

“Currently, not talking extension. We love Kyle Tucker. We have him under contract til 2025. I talked to his agent during spring training but right now we aren’t in discussion. We’d love him to retire here if possible. He knows we want to sign him here and his agent knows we want to sign him here. At some point, we’ll get an offer to him.”

At this point, Astros fans surely take such quotes with a grain of salt. The Astros quickly extended the aforementioned Javier after Brown was hired and have since hammered out a new long-term deal with Jose Altuve, but Brown has routinely made public comments about his desire to extend Tucker, Alex Bregman, Valdez and others without talks ever appearing to gain real steam. That he’s suggesting the team “will get an offer” to Tucker “at some point” seems a clear indicator that there haven’t yet been serious negotiations. Given Tucker’s increasing proximity to free agency and his ascension to bona fide MVP candidate, it’s tough to envision a deal coming together.

Tucker, 27, was already an excellent hitter from 2021-23, but this year’s offensive output is on a whole new level. In 215 trips to the plate, he’s slashing .293/.425/.649 — a mammoth 101% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+. Tucker has already belted 17 home runs (one every 12.6 plate appearances) and has walked more than he’s struck out (18.6% to 16.7%).

That level of production, coupled with the fact that Tucker will reach the open market heading into his age-29 season, should position him for the type of long-term megadeal from which Crane has shied away. The Astros haven’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension under Crane’s ownership, and the $151MM in new money that was guaranteed to Altuve on the second of his three Astros extensions is the largest sum Crane has committed at once. Tucker could realistically double that sum (and then some) in free agency.

Per Kawahara, Brown indicated to Ford that McCormick, who has been out of action since late April due to a hamstring strain, could return to the Astros lineup as soon as tomorrow. The 29-year-old scuffled a bit to open the season prior to his injury, slashing a lackluster .236/.325/.278 in 21 games prior to the injury. Even so, the return of McCormick could provide a noticeable boost to the club’s offense assuming he’s healthy. After all, he was one of the club’s top offensive contributors last year when he posted a strong .273/.353/.489 slash line in 115 games. That strong showing appeared to earn him the opportunity to take a larger role with the club going forward, although given the strong performance of Jake Meyers as the club’s regular center fielder in McCormick’s absence it’s certainly possible that those circumstances have changed.

As for Abreu, Rome indicates that the veteran could join the club in Oakland on Friday for their series opener against the A’s. Abreu agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues at the end of last month after scuffling to a brutal .099/.156/.113 slash line in 77 trips to the plate this season. The 37-year-old got into his first game action in a pair of Florida Complex League games the past two days, going 2-for-10 with a double and a walk in those appearances. Brown added that Abreu is expected to get into “a few” more games before he returns to the Astros, although it’s not yet clear if those will be additional FCL games or if he’ll instead advance to the Triple-A level as he prepares to face big league pitching for the first time in nearly a month.

Abreu is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM deal he signed with the Astros prior to the 2023 season. So far, that deal has not gone how either side was surely hoping. In addition to Abreu’s brutal start to the 2024 campaign, the veteran is coming off a down season in 2023 where he slashed just .237/.296/.383 in 141 games with Houston. That performance resulted in a wRC+ of just 86, making 2023 the first below average offensive season of the first baseman’s career. While Abreu has been away from the club, Jon Singleton has primarily handled first base duties and has held his own in the role with a .222/.322/.364 slash line that’s 1% better than league average by measure of wRC+.

In other Astros news, right-hander Jose Urquidy threw 59 pitches in a rehab start at the Double-A level last night. According to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, the right-hander is set to make one more rehab start before being activated from the injured list. That Urquidy is nearing a return is surely a major relief for Houston, as the club’s starting rotation has been fraught with difficulties throughout the season. Rotation stalwarts Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez have each spent time on the injured list already this year, while J.P. France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have all struggled badly with ERAs north of 7.00. Right-hander Ronel Blanco emerged early in the season as a surprising anchor for the club’s rotation, but the righty is in the midst of a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s foreign substance policy that has put a further strain on Houston’s pitching apparatus.

Given those major struggles, it would be a huge help for the Astros if Urquidy can even deliver roughly average results out of the rotation. That was hardly an issue for the 29-year-old earlier in his career, as he pitched to a solid 3.74 ERA with a 4.35 FIP in 63 career appearances through the end of the 2022 season. Unfortunately, the right-hander struggled significantly last season and posted a 5.29 ERA (79 ERA+) with a 5.38 FIP in 63 innings between the rotation and bullpen as his strikeout rate dipped to a measly 16.4% while his walk rate crept up to 9.1%. Despite those struggles, the right-hander figures to slot into the rotation in place of Arrighetti or Brown and allow the club to either move the youngsters to the bullpen or allow them to work things out in the minors.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• José Abreu agreeing to be optioned by the Astros (2:50)
• Upcoming knee surgery for Mike Trout of the Angels (5:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Given that a surplus can quickly disappear with injuries, will teams be more reluctant to trade from positions of relative strength? (6:50)
• When will Jackson Jobe of the Tigers or Junior Caminero of the Rays be called up? (14:30)
• Is it true that the White Sox can’t pick higher than tenth in next year’s draft? (18:20)
• What is the current state of Tommy John surgery and longevity of pitchers after going under the knife? (22:00)
• When can a team trade a recently-signed free agent? (28:50)
• If Erick Fedde keeps pitching well, what kind of return could the White Sox get for him at the deadline? (30:50)

Check out our past episodes!

• Mailbag: Cardinals’ Troubles, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bad Umpiring And More – listen here
• Free Agent Power Rankings, Shohei Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento – listen here
• Reviewing Our Free Agent Predictions And Future CBA Issues – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Abreu, now 37, signed a three-year deal with a $58.5MM guarantee with the Astros going into 2023. Houston was undoubtedly hoping for Abreu to continue performing like he did with the White Sox. He hit 243 home runs for that club from 2014 to 2022, slashing .292/.354/.506 in the process.

But things have not been going well since he joined the Astros. He was hitting .211/.276/.260 through May last year, before bouncing back with a solid showing of .277/.322/.466 in June and July. He was brutal again in August, hitting .188/.278/.271, before mounting a solid finish by slashing .237/.299/.536 in September and October. That up-and-down season finished with a line of .237/.296/.383, which translated to a wRC+ of 86, but he provided a bit more optimism by slashing .295/.354/.591 in the postseason.

Unfortunately, things have gone from bad to worse here in 2024, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at last week. Abreu has just seven hits so far this season, with his one double the only extra-base knock of the bunch. He currently has a line of .099/.156/.113 on the year. His -21 wRC+ is the worst in the majors among players with at least 70 plate appearances.

His .130 batting average on balls in play is surely due for some regression, but Abreu isn’t hitting the ball with much authority either. He has yet to barrel a ball this season, per Statcast’s definition, while his exit velocity and hard hit rate are way down relative to his previous work.

As mentioned, veteran players cannot be optioned without their consent but Abreu has agreed to go down to the minors. General manager Dana Brown told reporters that both sides decided Abreu should go down to the farm “to get some at-bats and his timing back right,” per Rome, linked up top. “He unselfishly was on board and agreement with going back to West Palm Beach,” Brown said.

Obviously, it would be great for everyone involved if this plan were successful in getting him back on track. The Astros are off to their worst start in years, currently 9-19 and in last place in the American League West. Abreu’s struggles have obviously been a part of that but he could also be part of the solution if he were able to turn things around.

For now, it’s not totally clear what the plan will be at first base. Joey Loperfido was just added to the roster today but he will be playing outfield for now, Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have Jon Singleton available to play first base but he’s not having a great year either, currently slashing .238/.319/.286.

Trey Cabbage could perhaps be an option, as he’s on the 40-man roster. He was just up with the club as their 27th man for the Mexico City Series but was sent back down after. Position players normally have to wait ten days after being optioned to be recalled again, but a “27th man” situation doesn’t count as being optioned.

Cabbage generally provides pop and can take a walk, but also racks up his share of strikeouts. He’s been hitting .271/.440/.486 in Triple-A this year, walking 23.1% of the time but striking out at a 31.9% clip. He also provides some wheels, having stolen seven bags on the year so far.

The Astros won’t officially option Abreu until tomorrow, so they will play a man short tonight and the corresponding move will be clear at that time.

While St. Louis had the luxury of sending Scott to Triple-A, the Astros can’t do the same with Abreu. He’d need to agree to any kind of minor league assignment. They’re not going to find a trade partner. In all likelihood, the only way for Houston to take him off the MLB roster is to release him and eat the remaining money on his $58.5MM free agent deal. Considering Abreu is making $19.5MM both this season and next, it’s not especially surprising that Houston isn’t ready to move on entirely.

At the same time, they have to at least consider the possibility of making a change at first base. The Astros have already kicked Abreu to the bottom third of the batting order after he started the year in the #5 hole. He has gotten the start in 16 of Houston’s 23 games, with Jon Singleton getting the nod at first base for the other seven appearances.

If Singleton were hitting well, perhaps Abreu would be in danger of losing his starting job. Yet the lefty-hitting Singleton is off to a lackluster .229/.308/.286 line in his own right. It comes as no surprise that Houston’s first basemen have been the sport’s least productive through three weeks. No team has gotten less than their .110/.187/.146 showing over 91 plate appearances.

While Singleton isn’t exactly forcing his way into the lineup, the Astros could consider alternatives in the minors. Offseason trade acquisition Trey Cabbage is on the 40-man roster but has been on optional assignment to Triple-A Sugar Land all season. He’s hitting .262/.407/.492 over his first 18 games. Former seventh-round pick Joey Loperfido has raked at a .260/.359/.688 clip over 19 contests for the Space Cowboys. The Duke product is tied with Heston Kjerstad for the Triple-A lead with 10 home runs. Loperfido is not on the 40-man but will need to be added at some point this year if Houston wants to keep him out of next offseason’s Rule 5 draft.

Neither Cabbage nor Loperfido is certain or even necessarily likely to produce against big league pitching. Cabbage appeared in 22 games for the Angels last season and struck out in nearly half his plate appearances. He’s going down on strikes a third of the time this year in Triple-A. Loperfido has had a similarly high swing-and-miss rate, fanning at a 33.7% clip this year after running a 32.6% strikeout percentage in his first look at Triple-A pitching last summer. He’s soon to turn 25 and has yet to make his major league debut.

Even if the Astros aren’t sold on Loperfido or Cabbage making enough contact to produce at the MLB level, they’ll obviously need to see more from Abreu to continue running him out there. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged as much last week. The GM told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on Friday that while the Astros would continue to give Abreu playing time in hopes that he finds his stride, they’d “have to circle back and make some decisions” if the former MVP doesn’t start hitting. That preceded an 0-8 showing from Abreu in the first two games of their weekend series against the Nationals. Singleton got the nod in yesterday’s series finale and went 0-3.

A player starting the year slowly can easily be overemphasized. A terrible three-week stretch to begin the season is more visible than a similar run in the middle of the summer might be. Teams are understandably wary about overreacting to a small sample in April, as Brown noted. Abreu’s struggles are magnified, though, because he’s already coming off a disappointing first year.

In 594 plate appearances a year ago, he hit .237/.296/.383 with 18 home runs. Of the 25 first basemen who took at least 500 plate appearances, Abreu was last in OBP and 22nd in slugging. Including this year’s start brings his overall line as an Astro to .220/.281/.354. That’d be subpar production for virtually any regular on a team with postseason aspirations. It’s particularly poor for a 37-year-old first baseman whose main source of value is supposed to be his bat.

To his credit, Abreu found his form to some extent late last season. He carried a .237/.296/.350 mark into September before connecting on seven homers with a .237/.299/.536 line in the regular season’s final month. He built off that in October, mashing at a .295/.354/.591 clip with another four longballs in 11 playoff contests. Abreu has also traditionally been a slow starter, even if this month’s struggles are at another level. For his career, he owns a roughly league average .241/.309/.421 line in March and April; he has posted well above-average offensive numbers in every other month.

That perhaps offers some level of optimism that Abreu will be able to turn things around. Still, despite a strong Spring Training performance, he hasn’t smoothly carried his late-2023 rebound into this season. How much more leeway the front office and manager Joe Espada can afford to give him remains to be seen.

Houston’s offense has been solid overall despite the complete lack of production at first base, yet they’re operating with far less margin for error than they have in past seasons. Poor performances from the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen, combined with a lack of timely hits, have led to a dismal 7-16 start. Only the White Sox have been worse in the American League. Urgency is soon going to mount. If the Astros get to a point where they feel a change in playing time is necessary, first base might be the likeliest position to do so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Abreu, 37, has hit an anemic .073/.148/.091 with a 27.9% strikeout rate and just one extra-base hit in his first 61 trips to the plate this season. While that’s a fairly small sample size, it comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where he posted a disappointing 86 wRC+ in 141 games. Given the veteran slugger’s lack of success in an Astros uniform, Brown left the door open to the club making some changes regarding his playing time should he continue to struggle. While Brown emphasized that the club will continue to focus on getting Abreu playing time to “see if he can get hot” in the coming days, he also acknowledged that they’ll have to “circle back and make some decisions” if the veteran doesn’t show signs of improvement.

It’s an understandable stance for the club to take, though Abreu is only in the second year of his three-year, $58.5MM pact with the club. The most obvious option for the club at first base should they look to move away from Abreu is Jon Singleton, though the 32-year-old has hardly lit the world on fire himself with a .250/.333/.313 slash line in 13 games this year. Trey Cabbage and Grae Kessinger are among the other plausible options available to the club at first base currently on the 40-man roster.

More from around the AL West…

• Reporting earlier this week indicated that Rangers ace Max Scherzer is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from surgery to repair a herniated disc he underwent over the offseason, and that he was scheduled to throw 40 pitches to live hitters yesterday. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, that 40-pitch session went off without a hitch and Scherzer had no issues recovering today, meaning the 39-year-old veteran is now on schedule to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday. The news is a huge shot in the arm for the club’s rotation, which has scuffled somewhat early in the season with a 4.46 FIP entering play today that placed the club ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, and Cardinals among all major league clubs. Scherzer, who posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.40 FIP in eight starts with Texas last year, would give the club the flexibility to move an arm such as Michael Lorenzen or even Andrew Heaney to the bullpen upon his return.
• Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon exited this evening’s game against the Reds with a right hamstring injury, as relayed by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Rendon sustained the injury while running out an infield single in the top of the first inning. Following the game, Rendon spoke to reporters (including Bollinger) about the injury, noting that his hamstring is feeling “not too great” in the aftermath of the game and that he was feeling some frustration about the constant injuries. Rendon, 34 in June, was once a star infielder for the Nationals and earned a seven-year deal with the Angels in free agency prior to the 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, his career has been completely derailed by injuries in recent years, with just 166 appearances and a 95 wRC+ since the start of the 2021 season. Should the injury result in another trip to the shelf for Rendon, it would be a major blow to the Angels. While the veteran infielder started the season in a 0-for-19 slump, since then he’s started to heat up with a .346/.403/.400 slash line in his last 13 games. In the event Rendon requires a trip to the injured list, the club could rely on Brandon Drury to cover third base in Rendon’s absence, with the club’s bench options, such as Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, and Jo Adell, handling DH.

Beyond just letting his back heal, the IL trip also seemed to serve as a mental reset for Abreu after the grind of his first four-plus months.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM contract with Houston last winter, Abreu was perhaps too eager to contribute to his new team.  Olney writes that “Cintron began to view Abreu’s relentless diligence as a problem.  As Abreu relentlessly took batting practice, his coaches believed, he was sapping his energy day after day — and likely prolonging his slump.”  Fortunately for all parties, Abreu has found his form at the ideal time for an Astros team that is one victory away from a return trip the World Series.

More from around the American League….

• Former Nationals assistant GM Johnny DiPuglia is interviewing with the Rays about a front office job, according to reporter Francys Romero (via X).  DiPuglia had been working as Washington’s international scouting director since 2009 and assistant GM since 2020 before he resigned from the organization in September, reportedly due to the Nationals’ desire to reduce his salary.  It isn’t surprising that the Rays (and presumably other teams) have interest in hiring DiPuglia, who has over 30 years of experience of scouting and front office experience, and a rich history of success in finding and developing Latin American talent.
• Zach McKinstry is planning “to live in the weight room” this offseason to improve his core strength, the Tigers utilityman tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  This represents a departure from last winter, when McKinstry was rehabbing from a torn groin suffered in August 2022, though he played through the injury without going on the IL.  The interruption to his usual offseason routine may have been a reason behind McKinstry’s underwhelming .231/.302/.351 slash line over 518 PA last season, not to mention the increased workload as a whole.  McKinstry had played in only 121 MLB games and received 364 PA from 2020-22 as a member of the Dodgers and Cubs before taking on a regular role with Detroit in a variety of different positions.  Petzold notes that McKinstry is out of minor league options, so there’s less of a margin for error as the uilityman will try to retain his spot as a multi-positional option.  “I’ll try to get my rotational strength a little bit stronger.  Hopefully, it can last me a little bit longer throughout the whole season, not just one month, two months or three months,” McKinstry said.

Abreu’s back has been an issue for both the last few days, and for much of the season, as he revealed to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome (Twitter links) and other reporters today.  The IL placement seemed to be sparked when an MRI revealed the inflammation, and Abreu received two cortisone shots to help ease the discomfort.

The back problem continues what has been a rough debut season for the veteran first baseman in Houston.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM free agent contract with the Astros last winter, Abreu has stumbled to a .234/.291/.343 slash line and 10 homers over 464 plate appearances.  Abreu and the Rockies’ Jurickson Profar each have a 75 wRC+, tied for the lowest wRC+ of any player in baseball with at least 450 PA in the 2023 campaign.

It has been a surprising result for a player who was so consistently productive over his nine previous seasons with the White Sox, and yet Abreu made a point of not using his back problems as an excuse, telling Rome and company “this is not a justification for the hitter I’ve been for the past four months.”

The Astros selected Jon Singleton’s contract from Triple-A earlier this week, and the former top prospect will continue to get a good chunk of the first base playing time while Abreu is sidelined.  Hensley and Mauricio Dubon could also chip in, though Houston might also opt to use Yainer Diaz more often at the cold corner, when Diaz isn’t catching.  The rookie has hit very well in his first extended taste of MLB action, and the Astros have been using first base and the DH spot to keep Diaz in the lineup when Martin Maldonado is behind the plate.

Maton was hit in the elbow by a line drive in Friday’s game, which forced him to make an early exit from his relief outing.  Rome reports that initial x-rays didn’t show a fracture, but Maton will undergo more x-rays and an MRI in due course.

Injuries have plagued Houston’s rotation all season, but the bullpen has been relatively healthy, and a big reason why the Astros have been able to largely withstand their thinned-out starting staff.  Maton has enjoyed a very solid campaign, posting a 3.04 ERA and an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate.  Though Maton isn’t a hard thrower and his walk rate is below average, he has elite spin rates and his fastball and curveball, and his 23.1% hard-hit ball rate is the lowest in the majors.

The Astros can only hope that the further scans don’t reveal a more serious problem for Maton, as the club needs their bullpen to keep contributing during the playoff push.  Houston already added to their relief depth in acquiring Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline, a move that looks even shrewder now that Maton will miss at least the next 15 days.

The 26-year-old Tucker has delivered in spades both on his lofty draft status (No. 5 overall in 2015) and his top-prospect billing. Already a two-time All-Star and a 2022 Gold Glove winner, he’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his exceptional young career. In 113 games and 481 plate appearances, Tucker has slashed .296/.377/.517 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 24 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). He’s just one steal shy of last year’s career-high mark, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive 30-homer season. This year’s 11.6% walk rate is easily a career-high mark, while his 12.9% strikeout rate is both a personal low and the ninth-lowest mark among all qualified big league hitters.

Tucker entered the 2023 season with 3.079 years of big league service and will finish at 4.079, leaving him arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. Given his age, draft/prospect pedigree and general excellence to date, there’s little reason to expect any sort of downturn in the near future. Were Tucker to naturally reach free agency by accruing six years of MLB service, he’d do so heading into his age-29 season — and likely in position to command a contract in excess of $200MM.

The Astros haven’t necessarily shied away from large payroll commitments, but they’ve typically preferred to mitigate the length of any high-priced deals. Jose Altuve’s extension promised him five years and $151MM on top of the remaining two years and $12.5MM on his prior contract. Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract is the longest handed out under owner Jim Crane. That deal covered all three of Alvarez’s arbitration seasons and three would-be free agent years. Tucker is already playing his first arb year on a $5MM salary and will be due a substantial raise this offseason.

Any extension for Tucker would presumably need to top Alvarez’s deal by a good margin — not only in terms of overall guarantee but in terms of length. The six-year term Alvarez landed would cover Tucker’s age-27 through age-32 seasons and set him up for free agency in advance of his age-33 season. It stands to reason that a player of his caliber would more likely be seeking a deal of eight-plus years in length, particularly now that he’s only two seasons removed from hitting the open market in prime position for a mega-deal.

For now, Brown stressed that the focus is squarely on attempting to overtake the Rangers for the lead in the American League West and to engineer another deep postseason run. Tucker will play a focal part of those efforts, of course, but the ’Stros were dealt some potentially difficult news regarding another key contributor following last night’s game. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters this morning that first baseman Jose Abreu reported discomfort in his lower back following yesterday’s game (Twitter link via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated further this weekend.

Abreu’s first season in Houston has been a forgettable one overall, but the former Rookie of the Year and MVP looked to be rediscovering his form earlier in the summer. After floundering to a .211/.276/.260 slash through his first two months, Abreu came roaring back with a .288/.330/.484 output over his next 200 plate appearances. While not quite his peak form, that was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and Abreu looked well on his way to quieting concerns brought about by his sluggish start to the season.

Unfortunately, his production has cratered once again. Abreu has just three hits in his past 39 trips to the plate and has fanned at an uncharacteristic 28.2% clip in that time. It’s unclear how long his back has been ailing, but the recent downturn after an impressive performance in June and July could well be related to the apparent injury with which he’s dealing. The season-long numbers are still ugly (.234/.291/.343), but losing the June/July version of Abreu is a notable hit to any lineup.

Of course, for as many potent bats as the Houston lineup has featured in recent years, elite starting pitching has been a hallmark of Astros clubs throughout their recent peak. The trade deadline return of Justin Verlander should only help to continue that legacy, but the reacquisition of Verlander won’t necessarily cost someone his spot on the starting staff.

Trezza writes that the Astros are likely to move to a six-man rotation, at least for the time being, keeping rookie right-hander J.P. France in the mix. Calling baseball an “earn-it business,” Baker emphasized that France has indeed earned his spot and will stay on turn moving forward.

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. The 28-year-old France has turned in 95 innings of 2.75 ERA ball since making his big league debut earlier this season, emerging as a godsend in the wake of season-ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. France has had some modest fortune on balls in play (.277 BABIP) and probably can’t continue stranding 81% of his baserunners — league average is 72% — but he’s looked the part of a solid big league starter even when accounting for some potential regression.

Keeping France in the rotation will have other benefits beyond his own performance. Hunter Brown is nearing last year’s total workload with seven weeks of the season yet to play out. Jose Urquidy just returned from a months-long absence due to a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier has been pitching better of late, but he hit a wall midsummer and had his spot in the rotation skipped heading into the All-Star break. Keeping France on the starting staff alongside Verlander, Brown, Javier, Urquidy and Framber Valdez will help the Astros to manage Brown’s workload and exercise caution, as necessary, with Urquidy and Javier.