This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Tigers re-signing Jack Flaherty and reportedly still lurking on Alex Bregman (1:50)
• The Blue Jays signing Max Scherzer (16:35)
• The Rays signing Ha-Seong Kim (22:20)
• The Padres shifting Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop with Kim leaving (30:10)
• The Mariners re-signing Jorge Polanco and might be effectively done (36:10)
• The Reds acquire Taylor Rogers from the Giants and San Francisco might be effectively done (49:05)

Check out our past episodes!

• Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here
• Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander – listen here
• The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Dipoto said the front office entered the winter believing they could be in for a slow offseason. “One of our points going into this offseason, and I know I made it sitting in the dugout in the final series, was that we didn’t anticipate a great deal of movement around the team,” he told the beat (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “As we are now about a week away from heading to Spring Training, I’d say that probably played out to be spot on, much to, I think, the dismay of a few. But we have a good team.”

Seattle has made two major league free agent signings. They brought Polanco back on a $7.75MM guarantee and added Donovan Solano as a part-time righty bat for $3.5MM. Reporting from both The Seattle Times and MLB.com throughout the offseason has suggested that ownership was only allowing the front office to allocate between $15MM-20MM to the MLB payroll. While the lack of free agent activity has certainly been a source of frustration for much of the fanbase, it’s not especially surprising.

The more interesting development has been the M’s willingness to sit out the trade market. They’ve made four trades this offseason, all of which have been depth acquisitions for players who were in DFA limbo: Austin Shenton, Miles Mastrobuoni, Blake Hunt and Will Klein. Those are akin to waiver claims. The Mariners essentially haven’t made a single notable move on the trade market, a stark contrast to Dipoto’s reputation as one of the game’s most prolific traders. The “Trader Jerry” nickname has been well earned in prior offseasons.

Most trade speculation concerned the possibility of the Mariners moving a starting pitcher to add a hitter. As Dipoto noted today, he did indeed downplay that notion before last season even ended. He famously called dealing from the rotation the M’s “Plan Z” for the offseason in the referenced media scrum. That didn’t stop other teams from inquiring on Seattle’s young rotation nucleus of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, but there’s nothing to suggest the Mariners gave strong consideration to moving any of them.

The one starter who was available was Luis Castillo. The veteran righty is under contract for another three seasons and $68.25MM (plus a 2028 vesting option). Trading Castillo could have created spending room while netting the M’s immediate lineup help. It wasn’t going to be a straight salary dump, though, and Seattle hasn’t found an offer it finds compelling. The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude reported last week that Castillo was unlikely to move at this point.

Dipoto implied as much in today’s comments. He told Jude and other reporters that the front office received some proposals that warranted real consideration, but those obviously did not result in a deal. “Not shockingly, we had inquiries on all five of our starting pitchers and dozens of prospects along the way,” he added. “But obviously we opted not to go that route.” While he left open the possibility of making another move, he noted that the front office would be happy with the roster “if this is our team going into Spring Training or Opening Day” (via Divish and Jude).

The Mariners will go into Spring Training with arguably MLB’s best 1-5 in the rotation. Their depth behind that is lacking, though perhaps quick-moving prospect Logan Evans can soon be a factor. Seattle benefited from excellent rotation health last year. Woo was the only member of their front five who made fewer than 30 starts. That’ll be difficult to replicate, but when the rotation is at full strength, they’re giving the ball to an above-average starter every night.

As has long been the case, the question is whether they’ll score enough runs. Dipoto expressed confidence in the lineup, pointing to their success later in the season after the managerial and hitting coach changes. Seattle hitters had a .216/.301/.365 batting line through August 21. After dismissing Scott Servais and Jarret DeHart in favor of Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez, respectively, they hit .255/.347/.417 in their final 34 games.

Attributing that entirely to the coaching changes is overly simplistic. They improved the lineup at the deadline with the Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena pickups and league-wide offense tends to peak later in the summer with warmer weather. Still, the change in voice probably played some part in the much improved finish. The Mariners play in the sport’s toughest home park for hitters. Only the White Sox had a lower team OPS in home games. Seattle ranked 13th in OPS on the road. Mike Petriello of MLB.com examined some reasons behind T-Mobile Park’s extreme pitcher-friendly environment last week in a column that’s well worth a full read.

Dipoto also addressed a few injury situations. He expressed confidence in Polanco’s health after the veteran infielder played through a left knee injury that eventually required a meniscus repair. The Mariners believe the move from his longtime second base position to third base will take less of a toll on him physically. Meanwhile, reliever Troy Taylor suffered a lat strain during his offseason workouts and will not be ready for the start of camp. It’s not clear if he’ll need to begin the regular season on the injured list. The righty turned in a 3.72 ERA while striking out nearly 31% of opposing hitters across 21 appearances as a rookie.

Marlowe, 28 in June, was a 20th-round pick of the Mariners back in 2019. He continually posted good numbers as he was climbing the minor league ladder, so the Mariners gave him a roster spot in November of 2022 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has spent the past two years as a depth outfielder, getting only limited looks in the majors. To this point, he has received 109 big league plate appearances with a .240/.330/.406 line. His 11.9% walk rate in that time is strong but he’s also been punched out at a 31.2% rate.

His minor league numbers have tailed off in that time. He had a combined slash line of .281/.373/.523 over 2021 and 2022, which translated to a 129 wRC+. His 27% strikeout rate was on the high side but he offset it with an 11.5% walk rate and 49 home runs. But over 2023 and 2024, that line has been down to .246/.340/.419, translating to an 85 wRC+. His 11.9% walk rate was still good but the punchouts jumped even higher to 29.4%.

That diminished offense on the farm has seemingly nudged him off the edge of Seattle’s roster. They will now have at most a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for him, whether that’s a trade or some fate on waivers. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade talks would need to come together in the next five days.

He does still have one option remaining, so he could perhaps appeal to a club in search of some extra outfield depth. Though the offense has dipped, he has continued to be a threat on the basepaths. He has stolen between 24 and 43 bases in each of the past four minor league seasons. The strikeouts have been an issue even when at his best but he has some wheels, some pop, can take a walk and can be sent to the minors regularly for one more season, all of which adds up to an intriguing package overall.

Polanco’s first season with the Mariners was a disappointment. Seattle acquired the switch-hitter from the Twins late last offseason. They expected him to provide a significant offensive boost in the infield. That didn’t pan out, as Polanco struggled through arguably the worst year of his career. He hit .213/.296/.355 with 16 home runs through 469 plate appearances. The batting average and on-base percentage were personal lows. The slugging percentage was only marginally above his career-worst .354 mark from the shortened 2020 season.

Before last season, Polanco had been one of the league’s more productive middle infielders. He combined for a .255/.333/.462 slash with a strong 10.1% walk rate in more than 1400 plate appearances over his final three seasons in Minnesota. Polanco had hit 33 homers back in 2021 and was an annual threat for 20 longballs and 30+ doubles. Polanco managed just 11 doubles during his first year in Seattle. He continued to draw walks at a solid 9.8% clip, but he struck out in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

Some of the offensive downturn is attributable to T-Mobile Park. Seattle plays in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly home stadium. Polanco had an especially difficult time at home. He hit .193/.284/.322 while striking out at a 31.9% clip in Seattle. His road production (.233/.308/.386 with a 26.7% strikeout rate) was better but still well below his previous standards.

Health may have been a bigger issue than the ballpark. Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee within weeks of the season’s conclusion. He had reportedly played through discomfort for a good portion of the season. Polanco is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. The Mariners are as familiar as any team with his health history. They evidently believe that last year’s struggles were something of an aberration.

While he’s entering his 10th full season, Polanco is only 31. His relative youth provides some optimism that last year was mostly a health-related anomaly. That said, the whiffs have been a multiyear concern. Polanco’s strikeout rate has climbed by multiple percentage points in five straight seasons. In 2020, he fanned in just 15.5% of his plate appearances. That jumped successively to a 25.7% clip in his final season with the Twins, which climbed nearly four points more with the Mariners.

Polanco’s previous contract included a $12MM team option that came with a $750K buyout. Seattle declined that relatively easily. Four months later, they bring him back at a slightly lesser salary. It’s probably not a coincidence that the performance bonuses theoretically allow him to max out next year’s guarantee at $11.25MM — the differential below the option price and the buyout.

They’re not quite running things back, as Polanco’s return comes with a position change. He has been a middle infielder throughout his career. Polanco played shortstop until moving to second base in 2021. He didn’t play anywhere other than second base last season. His major league third base experience consists of 20 starts and 180 innings. Polanco has never been a great defensive second baseman. His range could be less of an issue at third, though that’ll put some pressure on his arm. Polanco didn’t show great arm strength at second base, though that’s not a direct comparison to throwing across the diamond — which he did during his time as a shortstop.

Seattle feels more comfortable with their internal options at second base than they do at the hot corner. That bodes well for 25-year-old Ryan Bliss, who is likely to get first crack at the second base job. Bliss debuted late last season and hit .222/.290/.397 in 33 games. A former second-round pick by the Diamondbacks, he had a quality .269/.377/.456 showing over 433 plate appearances with Triple-A Tacoma last year.

The M’s will likely give Bliss the bulk of the playing time while working utilityman Dylan Moore through the position. Seattle’s lone additional MLB free agent signing, Donovan Solano, can also play some second base (though he’ll get more work as a platoon partner for Luke Raley at first). Seattle didn’t have anyone established at third base after non-tendering Josh Rojas.

Seattle wasn’t the only team interested in expanding Polanco’s versatility. He reportedly drew interest from the Astros as a possibility at either third base or in left field. Polanco has seemingly been Houston’s primary fallback if they don’t re-sign Alex Bregman. They no longer need a third baseman after landing Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal, but they’re still hunting for a left fielder and would like to re-sign Bregman. That’d push Paredes to second and Jose Altuve to left field.

Seattle has reportedly had around $15-20MM in payroll space this winter. Solano and Polanco have accounted for just over $11MM, leaving a few million for a potential bench bat or middle relief pickup. RosterResource calculates their 2025 player payroll around $152MM.

Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Polanco and the Mariners had an agreement. Rosenthal was first to report the $7.75MM guarantee and the move to third base. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that it was a one-year deal with a vesting/player option. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the $3.5MM in incentives. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided the more detailed financial breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

That’d be a first for the switch-hitting Polanco, who hasn’t played a single major league inning in the outfield. He has logged over 7500 defensive innings in his career. Nearly all of them have come in the middle infield, while he also has a handful of starts at third base. His professional outfield experience consists of 73 innings in rookie ball in 2011-12.

Playing Polanco in left field would be no less of a roll of the dice than it would be to send Jose Altuve out there. The latter option is seemingly on the table only if the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman, who’d retake his spot at third base while pushing Isaac Paredes to second base. Altuve has never started an MLB game at a position other than second base (or designated hitter), but he indicated over the weekend he’d be happy to try his hand in left field if it meant getting Bregman back on the roster. In any case, the Astros haven’t seemed enamored with the unsigned lefty-hitting outfield options (e.g. Alex Verdugo, Jason Heyward).

Houston’s interest in Polanco seems to be as a fallback if Bregman signs elsewhere. General manager Dana Brown said on Saturday that while Houston has had recent talks with their longtime third baseman, it remains a “long shot” that he’ll return. The Athletic reported last week that the team’s previously reported six-year, $156MM offer remains on the table. However, it’s not clear if the Astros are open to pushing that any further. Unsurprisingly, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 wrote this afternoon that Bregman was unlikely to return unless the team upped its offer.

While Polanco would obviously be far less expensive, it’s questionable whether he’d fit in Houston’s spending plans. The Astros are set to offload $8.5MM of Ryan Pressly’s salary once his trade to the Cubs is finalized. That dropped the team’s estimated luxury tax number to roughly $236MM (per RosterResource). They’re now about $5MM below the $241MM base tax threshold; they were a little more than $3MM above the line before the Pressly trade.

Houston exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. That their offer is still out to Bregman confirms they’re open to doing so again in certain circumstances. That’s not surprising with regards to a homegrown star who has been one of the faces of the most successful run in franchise history. Paying the competitive balance tax to accommodate Polanco — who hit .213/.296/.355 in a career-worst season with the Mariners last year — could be a tougher sell for ownership.

It seems likely that Polanco will beat $5MM wherever he winds up. He was one of the game’s better offensive second basemen between 2021-23. He’d played through a patellar tendon injury in his left knee last season. He underwent postseason surgery and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. The knee injury coupled with the challenge of hitting at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park make him an intriguing rebound target as he enters his age-31 season. Even if Polanco ends up settling for less than $5MM, the signing would at least put the Astors right on the border of the threshold. If they prefer to stay below the CBT line, they’d probably need to offload more money in a trade or have limited payroll room for midseason acquisitions.

After spending the first 10 seasons of his big league tenure with the Twins, Polanco suited up for the Mariners in 2024. He played all of his defensive innings at second base. The 31-year-old was once a shortstop and has some experience at third base, but the keystone has been his primary home for the past four seasons. Presumably, that’s where the Yankees would be interested in having him play. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s flexibility allows New York to pursue an upgrade at either second or third base, with Chisholm covering whichever position is left. Considering Polanco’s limited experience at the hot corner (24 games, 180.0 innings), it would seem to make the most sense to keep Chisholm at third.

Whichever team ultimately signs Polanco will be betting on him as a bounce-back candidate for 2025. From 2021-23, the switch-hitter was one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. Over 336 games, he hit 63 home runs with a .796 OPS and a 120 wRC+. His wRC+ was at least 19% better than the average second baseman’s in all three seasons. However, Polanco’s strong bat disappeared in 2024. His .651 OPS and 92 wRC+ were below average, even considering the lower offensive standards at second base. To make matters worse, his defense – which has never been his strong suit – was worse than ever. With -1 DRS, -10 OAA, -8 FRV, and -3.7 DRP, he either tied or sunk beneath his career lows in all four metrics.

For what it’s worth, Polanco spent time on the IL with a right hamstring injury in May and June and reportedly played through a left knee injury for much of the season. He had surgery on his knee this offseason and is expected to be ready for spring training. Perhaps a healthier Polanco will be able to hit more like his old self. To that point, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested the injury had a particular effect on the switch-hitter’s performance as a lefty batter. Polanco’s 94 wRC+ as a righty batter in 2024 was right in line with his career average of 95. On the flip side, his 91 wRC+ as a lefty batter in 2024 was significantly worse than his career 115 wRC+ from the left side.

Even at full strength, Polanco doesn’t offer quite as much upside as Torres. However, it’s not far-fetched to think Polanco could replace the offensive production the Yankees got out of Torres in 2024. This past season was also a down year for the younger infielder. Over 154 games, he hit for a .709 OPS and 104 wRC+. Funnily enough, those numbers are almost right in the middle of what Polanco produced in 2023 and ’24. He might not be the most exciting infielder the Bronx Bombers have been connected to this winter, but if the veteran can split the difference between his past two seasons, he’ll help the Yankees make up for what they lost.

That allowed them to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the previous three seasons. Polanco even came with multiple years of control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout) that seemed quite likely to be a no-brainer for the club to pick up when the trade was executed. Flash forward to the end of the 2024 campaign, however, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. Given that, it was a surprise to no one when the Mariners opted to decline their option on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in savings for use on other areas of the roster.

Since then, Polanco has been awaiting an opportunity on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball activities at some point this month and be fully ready to go in time for Spring Training, but his market has nonetheless been rather quiet. The Astros reportedly had some level of interest in Polanco as a fallback plan in the event they failed to land Alex Bregman, but they instead pivoted to a combination of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the door on the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other teams have been publicly connected to the infielder.

Some trepidation from clubs regarding Polanco is understandable. In addition to the fact that he’s coming off offseason surgery, there are some worrisome signs in his performance last year even going beyond his raw production. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out just a 19.5% clip throughout his career, but his strikeouts have been steadily increasing over the last several years. He struck out at just an 18.3% clip back in 2021, which was by far the best season of his career. Since then, however, his strikeouts have climbed each season with a 21.3% figure in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 before topping out with last year’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.

It’s a worrying trend that was present even when Polanco was productive in previous years and shows little sign of turning around. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the 32nd-highest contact rate among 132 qualified hitters. That figure dropped to 73.6% last year, though, which was just 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, though it’s not the culprit of Polanco’s downturn in production on its own. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were diminished relative to 2021 as well and Polanco still managed to remain productive.

Where Polanco found success in those years but not 2024 was in the power department: his barrel rate in 2022 was a well above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. Last year, however, it dipped to just 8.9%. That’s still an above-average figure overall, but a nearly five-point drop in barrel rate is sure to sap any hitter’s power output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in just 343 plate appearances in 2023 last year saw Polanco slug just 16 homers and 11 doubles despite stepping up to the plate 136 more times than he had the year prior.

While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing power are both clear causes for concern, there is some reason for optimism as well. His 9.8% walk rate remained well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 points higher than his .287 wOBA. That suggests at least some of his lackluster campaign last year was due to poor batted ball luck, and after a season where he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s easy to imagine him being more of an average to slightly above-average hitter by that metric had his results matched more closely with the underlying metrics.

A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ in the 100-105 range can be a valuable regular even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster defense at the keystone, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being a steady, two-win regular if healthy enough to play a full season in 2025 even without his contract or power bouncing back. Between that solid floor of production at the possibility Polanco can rediscover either the power stroke or the more contact-oriented approach he found success with in previous seasons, he figures to be one of the better players available to teams in need of help at second or third base at this point in the winter—particularly for clubs that aren’t willing to commit what it would take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual basis. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are among a number of teams that could use help around the infield that Polanco could be a speculative fit for.

Polanco, who’s coming off a down year in Seattle and underwent knee surgery in October, has typically been a middle infielder, first coming to the majors as a shortstop in Minnesota before moving over to second base due to defensive concerns. The 31-year-old does have a bit of experience at the hot corner, having logged a combined 180 innings there in two different seasons with the Twins (plus another 128 frames there as a minor leaguer). He played 103 innings at third base as recently as 2023 in Minnesota.

The 2024 season was a disaster for Polanco, who’s battled knee troubles for several seasons and saw those ongoing troubles culminate in offseason surgery. His lone year in Seattle produced a .213/.296/.355 slash in 118 games — a far cry from the combined .270/.338/.455 output Polanco posted in six years with the Twins from 2018-23. Polanco still cracked 16 home runs for the Mariners in 2024, but his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 29.2% and he posted some of the worst defensive grades of his career (-10 Outs Above Average).

Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee in early October. He’d previously had IL stints for that same knee in both 2023 and 2022, missing about seven weeks of action combined between the two instances. Given the recent knee struggles and ugly results in 2024, Polanco is likely ticketed for a one-year deal. At the very least, he’d be an affordable alternative to Bregman/Adames who could allow the ’Stros to perhaps spend elsewhere.

At this stage of his career, however, asking Polanco to hold down third base regularly feels like a stretch. He’ll turn 32 next July, is coming off that knee surgery and already ranks poorly in terms of arm strength on his throws in the infield, per Statcast. While throws from second base and third base can’t simply be compared in apples-to-apples fashion — throws from third base are inherently going to come in at a higher velocity — Polanco is well below average even when compared strictly to other second basemen; his average velocity ranked 48th among the 63 players who made at least 100 throws as a second baseman in 2024. Perhaps a healthier lower half will lead to better life on his throws moving forward, but the recent trends don’t bode well for a move to third base.

That said, it’s a pretty thin market at the hot corner this offseason — at least in free agency. Bregman is the clear top option, though some teams might prefer Adames, who’s reportedly willing to move off shortstop in the right setting. Virtually everyone beyond Bregman and Adames falls into the rebound candidate bucket, with Polanco joining names like Josh Rojas, Gio Urshela, Yoan Moncada, Brandon Drury and Luis Urias (among others). The trade market includes Alec Bohm and the pricier Nolan Arenado, to name a couple of the most prominent candidates.

Polanco, 31, stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2024, hitting just .213/.298/.355 as the primary second baseman for the Mariners. It was Polanco’s first season with an organization other than the Twins. Minnesota, deep in infield talent and facing payroll uncertainty amid the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy proceedings, traded Polanco to Seattle last offseason in exchange for reliever Justin Topa, rotation reclamation bid Anthony DeSclafani, and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Neither club benefited from the deal in 2024. Polanco had a career-worst showing. Topa missed nearly the entire season after sustaining a knee injury in spring training. DeSclafani didn’t pitch at all after undergoing flexor surgery in spring training.

At the time he was acquired, Polanco looked like the steadying presence the Mariners had coveted at second base after several years of a revolving door at the position. The switch-hitter was a fixture in Minnesota’s infield from 2018-23, hitting a combined .270/.338/.455 along the way. Polanco had dealt with some knee troubles in recent seasons but finished the ’23 season both healthy and productive. In 216 plate appearances after being reinstated from the injured list in July 2023, he slashed .258/.361/.456.

The knee injury likely explains some of Polanco’s struggles in 2024, but that won’t do his free agent market any big favors. Major League Baseball’s free agent market generally doesn’t treat second basemen well in the first place, and Polanco will be entering the 2025 campaign as a notable health risk and rebound candidate. He’s likely to be capped at a one-year deal with some incentives based on plate appearances and/or games played. Clubs looking for some affordable help at second base could look to Polanco, a 2019 All-Star who belted 33 home runs as recently as 2021, as a reasonably priced option. However, it’s possible they’ll want to wait until he resumes baseball activity before determining the size of the commitment they’re comfortable making.

Seattle acquired the switch-hitting Polanco from the Twins last offseason in a trade sending reliever Justin Topa, veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani, prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, and cash back to Minnesota. The hope at the time was that the steady Polanco  would solidify what had been a revolving door at second base for two seasons in Seattle. Instead, Polanco became the latest notable veteran to arrive in Seattle and see his offensive production unexpectedly decline in swift fashion.

Polanco hit .270/.338/.455 in nearly 2700 plate appearances with the Twins from 2018-23, only once posting below-average offense in a season (2020). He’d incurred some injury troubles in the two years immediately preceding the swap but was entering his age-30 season. There was little reason to expect a steep decline at the plate, but that’s exactly what played out. Polanco, a 2019 All-Star, got out to an awful .197/.285/.298 slash through the first three months of the season. He picked up the pace considerably in July, but by that point there was little salvaging his season. He wound up with career-lows in batting average (.213) and on-base percentage (.298). His .355 slugging percentage was exactly one point higher than his career-worst .354 from that shortened 2020 season.

The career-worst showing at the plate for Polanco was at least in part due to knee troubles. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported a couple weeks back that Polanco was slated to undergo surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee. That’s the same knee that landed Polanco on the injured list for the final month of the 2022 season and for the first three weeks of the 2023 campaign. Depending on the extent to which the injury has been nagging him, it’s certainly possible that a healthier Polanco could return to form in short order next season. It’s not yet clear exactly how long he’ll need to recover, but if Polanco is expected back on time for Opening Day 2025, he ought to command a one-year deal with incentives this offseason.

As for Urias, this is the second time the Mariners passed him through waivers. He accepted an outright assignment last time around, as electing free agency following his midseason outright would’ve required forfeiting the remainder of his salary. He’s no longer on a guaranteed deal, however, and was arbitration-eligible — with a projected $5MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). The M’s were never likely to pay that price a second time, leaving Urias as one of the more clear-cut non-tender candidates in the league. Today’s outright is tantamount to non-tendering him a couple weeks ahead of the deadline to do so.

Urias, 27, was one of the top prospects in baseball during his minor league days with the Padres. He had a pair of solid seasons following a trade to the Brewers, hitting a combined .244/.340/.426 in 2021-22. However, Urias’ production tanked with a .194/.337/.299 slash in 2023, and he wasn’t able to get back on track in 2024, hitting only .191/.303/.394. He’s capable of playing multiple infield spots but is better suited at second and third base than at shortstop. A team seeking a right-handed utility infielder could look to Urias on a minor league deal or perhaps a low-cost one-year pact with some incentives baked in.

Polanco, 31, just finished a rough campaign. Acquired from the Twins going into the season, he got into 118 games but hit just .213/.296/.355 for a wRC+ of 92. That was a notable drop from his time in Minnesota, as he had hit .269/.334/.446 over his 823 games as a Twin for a 111 wRC+.

Passan suggests that Polanco’s performance was impacted by the knee problems, particularly when hitting left-handed. The switch-hitter slashed .198/.301/.345 against righties this year for a wRC+ of 91. That actually wasn’t too far off from his right-handed production, mostly due to a big difference in his walk rate. He slashed .250/.285/.379 against lefties for a 94 wRC+. His batting average as a righty was far better but he only walked 4.6% of the time. Since he walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances as a lefty, he made up most of the difference in terms of overall production.

The knee issue didn’t come out of nowhere. He dealt with soreness in 2022, eventually missing the month of September while on the injured list due to left knee inflammation. But he still finished the season with a solid .235/.346/.405 slash line and 118 wRC+ in 104 games.

The soreness was still there in March of 2023, so Polanco started the season on th IL. He was activated by the third week of April. He did go back on the IL a couple of more times that year, but both of those later stints were due to left hamstring strains. He got into 80 games last year and produced a .255/.335/.454 line and 117 wRC+.

After those two seasons impacted by knee issues, he was flipped to the Mariners ahead of the 2024 season, with reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen going the other way. Both clubs saw their end of that deal impacted by injuries. Topa only made three appearances this year due to his own left knee issues while DeSclafani underwent flexor tendon surgery and missed the whole season.

The Mariners are likely to buy out Polanco on the heels of such a poor season, unless they buy into the narrative that his 2024 struggles were completely caused by the knee. If Polanco were able to return to his pre-2024 form, he’d be worth the investment, but the Mariners might prefer to keep that powder dry until later in the winter. The payroll in Seattle is expected to climb but perhaps not by much.

Even if Seattle is interested in bringing Polanco back for 2025, they could probably turn down the option and re-sign him for less than that option price. They figure to have Josh Rojas at either second or third base but should be looking for infield help, either in free agency or trade.

If Polanco ends up on the open market, he’ll join a group of free agent second basemen that includes Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Ha-Seong Kim, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and others.

Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times have some relatively good news for frustrated M’s fans on that front, reporting that ownership expects payroll to increase in 2025. That’s a breath of fresh air after it became clear almost immediately last offseason that payroll had minimal room to grow. On the other hand, the Times duo adds that a major free agent splash is not expected, thus suggesting that any uptick in payroll could be fairly modest in nature.

Seattle’s roster is overwhelmingly cost controlled, as the bulk of its core is either signed long-term or in the early stages of arbitration. As is the case with all teams fitting that description, there are some natural payroll increases that should be baked into the offseason.

Julio Rodriguez will see his salary jump from $10MM to $18MM under the terms of his long-term extension, for example. Victor Robles only cost the Mariners the prorated league minimum this year after being released by the Nationals, but he’ll earn $3.5MM next year on the two-year extension he signed in August. Dylan Moore, Andres Munoz and Mitch Garver will also see small salary increases on their guaranteed multi-year deals, all of which are slightly backloaded. It’s not all increases, however. Mitch Haniger’s deal is frontloaded, and he’ll actually see his salary drop from this year’s $20MM mark to the $15.5MM level on a player option he’s sure to exercise.

The bigger area for increase lies within the Mariners’ arbitration class. First-time candidates include Cal Raleigh and George Kirby, both of whom should command significant raises and could go from costing the club a combined $1.5MM to somewhere in the combined $10MM range. Randy Arozarena ($8.1MM in 2024), Logan Gilbert ($4.05MM) and Josh Rojas ($3.1MM) are in line for the most notable raises among the rest of the group, though relievers like Trent Thornton ($1.2MM in ’24), Austin Voth ($1.25MM), JT Chargois ($1.285MM), Gabe Speier (pre-arb) and Tayler Saucedo (pre-arb) could all get boosts as well. Luis Urias is all but a surefire non-tender candidate, and injured utilityman Sam Haggerty isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be tendered.

Assuming the Mariners decline Jorge Polanco’s $12MM option after a disappointing 2024 season — Divish and Jude unsurprisingly write that they’re likely to do so — and tender contracts to Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert, Rojas, Thornton, and Saucedo, they’ll land somewhere in the $140MM payroll range before making a single move this offseason (including a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). This year’s payroll was finished just shy of $145MM, per RosterResource.

An increased payroll, then, doesn’t necessarily signify the looming addition of any large salaries to be acquired via free agency or trade. That said, word of an increasing payroll also does lend some insight into the direction the team will take. For instance, we’ve already seen the Cardinals plainly state that next year’s payroll will decrease. It became clear almost immediately in the Twins’ offseason last year that payroll would decline from 2023 to 2024. We’re five years removed (to the day) from Rockies ownership kicking off the winter by saying they lacked flexibility for additions of note. With Jerry Dipoto returning as president of baseball operations, there’s always a “never say never” caveat attached to virtually any player’s trade candidacy, as he’s among the game’s most active executives on that market. Still, there’s no reason to anticipate sweeping changes among the team’s excellent young core.

Rather, the focus once again seems likely to be on reinventing an offense that has been continually stagnant despite repeated personnel changes. The M’s would no doubt welcome the opportunity to get out from some or all of their commitments to Haniger and Garver, but that’ll be no small feat. They’ll again be looking to upgrade at third and/or second base after last year’s pickups of Polanco and Urias didn’t yield the intended results. First base is an open question, though the hope is that young Tyler Locklear can solidify the position.

The outfield/designated hitter mix — Arozarena, Rodriguez, Robles and Luke Raley — is largely set, and the Mariners don’t figure to be major players in the starting pitching market. Gilbert and Kirby will be rejoined by Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, comprising a brilliant rotation. Other clubs will surely try to pry some of those young, cost-controlled arms away from the Mariners while dangling promising young hitters in return. However, Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander opted not to deal from that rotation stock last year and would surely be reluctant to do so this coming offseason, given the near-unmatched blend of excellent results and affordable price tags they have throughout the starting staff.

Divish and Jude write that Dipoto spoke of ways to “address our holes that maybe don’t include [trading away] the players that are here” — a potential nod to dealing from a deep farm rather than subtracting from the big league roster. Prospects like Locklear, catcher/outfielder Harry Ford, right-hander Logan Evans, outfielders Jonny Farmelo and Lazaro Montes, and infielders Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Felnin Celesten have all garnered fanfare among the game’s top-100 prospects since midseason. More broadly, the Mariners rank 11th or better on the midseason farm system rankings from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (11th), MLB.com (ninth) and Baseball America (seventh). Dipoto and Hollander will have no shortage of coveted young talent to peddle on the market if the goal is to augment the lineup without heavily subtracting from the current big league roster.

It’s the first major league call for the 24-year-old Bliss. The Diamondbacks picked the 5’7″ middle infielder in the second round of the 2021 draft out of Auburn. Bliss rebounded from a tough first full professional season with a breakout 2023 campaign. The right-handed hitter raked at a .358/.414/.594 clip with Arizona’s Double-A affiliate. He earned a call to the Futures Game last summer and was involved in a significant trade not long thereafter. The D-Backs packaged him to Seattle alongside Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone for closer Paul Sewald.

That wasn’t the most popular trade in the M’s clubhouse at the time, and the second-guessing only got louder when Seattle narrowly missed the playoffs last season. Sewald, meanwhile, stabilized a shaky bullpen in the desert to help Arizona to a surprising World Series berth. The Mariners have gotten good work from both Rojas and Canzone through the first two months of 2024, though. Bliss now joins them on the big league roster.

Bliss finished last season with the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma, hitting .251/.356/.466 over 47 games. He has similar numbers through 50 contests with the Rainiers this year. Bliss owns a .247/.382/.445 batting line through 229 plate appearances. He has walked at a massive 17% clip against a manageable 21.8% strikeout percentage. Bliss has already stolen 28 bases in 34 tries and has reasonable power numbers (seven homers, nine doubles and three triples).

While his slight frame limits his raw power upside, Bliss offers a well-rounded profile that could make him a viable everyday player. He has split his time about evenly between the middle infield spots this year. Prospect evaluators have generally preferred him at second base rather than shortstop because of his fringe arm strength.

That’s where he’ll slot in during his first MLB look. J.P. Crawford has shortstop secure, but Polanco has played sparingly in recent days because of hamstring discomfort. Acquired as part of an overhauled Seattle offense, the longtime Twin has slumped to a .195/.293/.302 showing to begin his Mariner tenure. The M’s plugged Luis Urías into the lineup when Polanco missed a few games two weeks ago. Seattle optioned him last week and will give Bliss a look at second base instead of the more experienced Urías, another offseason pickup who has only hit .152/.264/.316 in 34 games.

The M’s essentially had an open 40-man roster spot after Haggerty suffered a season-ending Achilles tear last week. That occurred in Tacoma, so the outfielder initially went on the minor league injured list. He’ll spend the rest of the season on the MLB IL, where he’ll pick up major league service. Haggerty should narrowly cross the four-year service threshold and would likely be in line for another salary in the realm of this year’s $900K if the Mariners tender him a contract next offseason.

More from around the AL Central…

• Guardians outfield prospect George Valera will miss “several weeks” after suffering a left hamstring strain, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (X link).  Valera missed a big chunk of the 2023 season due to hamstring injuries and a hamate surgery, and the result was an unremarkable .220/.349/.397 slash line over 338 minor league plate appearances, mostly at the Triple-A level.  Valera had been a regular on top-100 prospect lists prior to his 2023 disappointment, and his readiness for the start of the Triple-A season could now be in question depending on how much time he misses with his latest injury.
• Kerry Carpenter is also dealing with a strain to his left hamstring, though the Tigers slugger is only slated to miss a few days for now, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press).  Hinch described the situation as “precautionary,” and Carpenter didn’t think he was going to be out for long.  Over his first two MLB seasons, Carpenter has hit .273/.334/.474 with 26 homers over 572 PA, and is expected to play a key role as the Tigers’ regular designated hitter in 2024.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The trade sending Jorge Polanco from the Twins to the Mariners (1:10)
• The Brewers sign Rhys Hoskins (8:25)
• The Diamondbacks sign Joc Pederson while the Blue Jays sign Justin Turner (12:05)
• The Tigers sign prospect Colt Keith to an extension (20:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
• Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

• The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
• The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
• Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!