The news on Mateo isn’t particularly surprising, as he underwent significant left elbow surgery in August. That was to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and add an internal brace, as well as repairing the flexor tendon. That procedure was on his non-throwing arm but the expected recovery timeline was still going to take a few months. The O’s have said at times that Mateo could perhaps be ready for a full season in 2025 but it now seems that his recovery will extend at least partway into the season.

The news on Rogers comes out of nowhere, as he didn’t spend any time on the injured list last year. Per Elias, he suffered a right kneecap subluxation in January. It’s unclear exactly how it happened but Rogers himself told Kubatko that it dislocated for about a second. Though the lefty downplayed the severity and said he’s already playing catch, he is apparently weeks behind schedule.

It appears it won’t be a devastating blow but it’s another frustrating development in what has already been a difficult Baltimore tenure for the southpaw. Acquired from the Marlins at the deadline last year, Rogers was torched for 15 earned runs in 19 innings over his first four starts as an Oriole and got optioned to Triple-A. He then made five starts for Norfolk with a 5.65 ERA to finish the year.

Going into 2025, he was likely blocked from securing a rotation gig to start the season. On top of his poor finish in 2024, the O’s added Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals to pad out the rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer.

Rogers is still optionable and may have been ticketed for another stint in Norfolk to start 2025 if he were healthy. An injury to those front five starters could have opened a path for him but he would be competing with guys like Albert Suárez, Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich for the #6 spot on the depth chart.

The O’s would obviously love for Rogers to get back into his 2021 form. With the Marlins that year, he made 25 starts with a 2.64 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. But his ERA climbed to 5.47 the following year and he spent most of 2023 on the injured list. He bounced back somewhat last year, with a 4.53 ERA prior to the trade, but then had his aforementioned struggles after the swap. The club will have a bit less pitching depth to start the year, though they have other options there. For Rogers personally, he’ll be a bit delayed in heading down the comeback trail.

Mateo would ideally be on the club’s bench, providing the Orioles with depth all over. In his career, he has played every position outside of the battery and first base. He’s not a huge hitter but is a threat to steal 30 bases a year, having done so twice, and gets strong marks for his glovework at several different spots. RosterResource currently projects the club’s four-man bench to consist of catcher Gary Sánchez and infielder Ramón Urías, with Ramón Laureano and Heston Kjerstad backing up the outfield. Kjerstad is the only one in that group who can be optioned to the minors, perhaps leaving him vulnerable to getting sent to the minors once Mateo is healthy unless someone else goes on the IL.

Teams had until January 15 to agree to terms with their arbitration-eligible players. If no deal was in place by then, they needed to exchange filing figures. They were free to continue negotiations beyond that point, though most clubs refuse to discuss straight one-year deals after the exchange deadline. Mateo had filed for a $4MM salary, while the Orioles filed at $3.1MM. They settled at the midpoint, though Mateo concedes a ’26 club option to do so.

The addition of the club option on Mateo’s deal means the Orioles haven’t broken their self-imposed “file and trial” system. Arbitration deals that include an option year cannot be used as precedents in future hearings. It wraps up Baltimore’s arbitration dealings for this winter. The O’s had agreed to terms with their 11 other arbitration-eligible players by January 15. This is the second straight year in which the Orioles reached a late arbitration deal to buy out a free agent season. They took a similar tack with first baseman Ryan O’Hearn last February. That ended up working out for the club, as O’Hearn played well enough for Baltimore to trigger an $8MM option to keep him from hitting the market.

Mateo is headed into his fourth full season with the Orioles. Baltimore grabbed him off waivers from the Padres in the second half of the ’21 campaign. He had a career year in 2022, as he led the American League with 35 stolen bases while posting elite defensive grades at shortstop. There’s been plenty of speculation over the following two years that the Orioles could deal Mateo, who was pushed out of an everyday infield role by Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and eventually Jackson Holliday. The O’s have opted against making such a move, evidently valuing Mateo’s speed and defensive versatility off the bench more than whatever they might’ve received in a trade.

Over the last two seasons, Mateo has gotten into 177 games. He’s only hitting .222/.267/.363 over that stretch, though he has swiped 45 bases in 52 attempts. Mateo can back up Henderson and Holliday in the middle infield and has the speed to spell Cedric Mullins in center field. Holliday’s early struggles gave Mateo an opportunity to play regularly at the keystone early last year. Unfortunately, his season was cut short in late July. Mateo tore the UCL in his left (non-throwing) elbow when he collided with Henderson while pursuing a slow grounder up the middle. He underwent surgery in late August.

There’s no indication that the injury will affect Mateo’s readiness for the start of next season. Baltimore was confident enough in his health to keep him around. He’ll join Ramón Urías and new backup catcher Gary Sánchez as locks for Brandon Hyde’s bench so long as he’s healthy.

Baltimore’s player payroll now sits around $156MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. Those are almost entirely short-term commitments. Offseason pickup Tyler O’Neill is the only player on a guaranteed deal that stretches beyond next season (and he can opt out after this year). Their only other commitment is a $1MM option buyout for reliever Andrew Kittredge. That opens the possibility that Mateo plays well enough for Baltimore to exercise the option, though they’re unlikely to be hurting for infield talent anytime soon.

Francys Romero first reported Mateo’s $3.55MM salary and the $5.5MM option with $500K in escalators. The Associated Press had the escalator specifics. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

• The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
• Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
• With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

Elbow ligament damage is far more common in pitchers. Mateo’s injury, of course, wasn’t sustained on a throw. While playing second base on a late July game against the Marlins, he ranged to his right to field a slow grounder up the middle. Mateo dove to try to make a backhand stop. At the same time, shortstop Gunnar Henderson moved to his left and went into a slide. Henderson rolled up on Mateo’s arm and bent his elbow back at an awkward angle.

The O’s initially announced the injury as an elbow subluxation. Mateo quickly landed on the 60-day injured list, already ruling him out into late September. He’d hoped to make a late-season return into the playoffs, but that won’t be possible. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed hope that the 29-year-old will be ready by next Opening Day (link via MLB.com’s Jake Rill).

Mateo is no longer an everyday player, but his speed and ability to play anywhere in the middle of the diamond would’ve made him a key bench piece going into the postseason. The O’s lost budding star third baseman Jordan Westburg to a hand fracture shortly after the Mateo injury; he’s out into September. Jackson Holliday is back in the majors as the everyday second baseman. The top prospect hasn’t struggled to the extent that he did during his first MLB look. Still, his .221/.280/.442 slash line since his most recent recall is below average. Westburg’s injury pushed Ramón Urías back into the lineup at the hot corner. Urías had an underwhelming start to the year but has somewhat quietly run a .273/.343/.511 line since the All-Star Break.

The O’s are carrying Emmanuel Rivera and Livan Soto as backup infielders. Neither has the speed that Mateo brings to the table. Mateo doesn’t hit for a high average or take many walks, but he has double-digit home run power and is a constant threat on the bases. He topped 30 steals in each of the last two years and was 13-15 this season. Baltimore just claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from Miami, perhaps with an eye towards carrying him as a designated pinch-runner in October.

Mateo is heading into his final season of arbitration eligibility. He is playing this year on a $2.7MM salary and should land in the $3-4MM range if Baltimore tenders him a contract for 2025. While Mateo has seemed like a trade or non-tender candidate for the past couple offseasons, the O’s have held him for more than three years.

Holliday, 20, was the first overall pick in the 2022 draft and entered the 2024 season as the consensus top prospect in baseball. He made his MLB debut back in April but looked overmatched in the majors at the time, slashing just .059/.111/.059 in 36 trips to the plate across ten games before returning to Triple-A. Holliday hit .252/.418/.429 over his next 40 games in his return to the minors, a solid overall slash line but a far cry from what Holliday had done in the past. His production in early June was especially troubling, as he hit just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage in ten games before being placed on the minor league IL due to what the club referred to at the time as a “barking” shoulder.

Fortunately, the young phenom returned to action after just two weeks and has looked more like himself at the plate, slashing an excellent .273/.426/.507 in 101 trips to the plate since coming off the shelf. Holliday was initially restricted to DH-only duties upon his return but has gradually begun to mix in time on the infield dirt in recent days, with six of his past nine games coming at either second base or shortstop. Even if the Orioles don’t yet feel Holliday is ready for everyday reps in the field, a deep mix of infield talent that also includes Ramon Urias and Vavra should allow them to offer Holliday as much rest as he needs while still allowing him to be their regular second baseman.

Should Holliday prove to be ready for the show upon his return to the club’s roster, it will help to assuage concerns regarding how the Orioles will make up for the losses of Mateo and Connor Norby, the latter of whom was shipped alongside Kyle Stowers to Miami in exchange for lefty Trevor Rogers earlier today. Mateo has been a serviceable but unspectacular second baseman for Baltimore this year, slashing .229/.267/.401 with an 86 wRC+ and middling defensive numbers and 13 stolen bases in 68 games for the club this year. A useful utility player with the ability to backup every spot on the diamond except for first base and catcher, the Orioles are sure to miss Mateo even as he was likely to be pushed out of the regular lineup by Holliday regardless of the left elbow subluxation that figures to keep him sidelined until at least late September.

Also helping to fill the void up the middle is Vavra, who missed most of the 2024 season due to a torn labrum in his right shoulder and was outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster back in November. He’s remained with the club in the minors since then and sports a respectable .269/.377/.423 slash line in 123 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level since returning from injury. Vavra struggled badly prior to his surgery last year but in 2022 posted a solid 99 wRC+ in 103 trips to the plate with the Orioles. Vavra offers the club an additional left-handed bat for their bench mix capable of playing both outfield corners as well as second and third base.

As for Krook, the lefty has pitched just one inning in the majors since the club acquired him from the Yankees back in February to act as optionable bullpen depth from the left side. That brief appearance did not go well, as he allowed three runs (two earned) on a walk and home run while striking out two in his lone appearance. Meanwhile, his results at Triple-A have been somewhat middling as he’s pitched to a 4.11 ERA in 35 innings at the level with a strong 27% strikeout rate that’s held back by his massive 16.4% walk rate. The Orioles will now have one week to attempt to pass Krook through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the Orioles will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues to act as non-roster depth.

Mateo suffered the injury on Tuesday in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson when both infielders slid for an up-the-middle grounder (video link). It’s not clear yet how long he’ll be sidelined. Manager Brandon Hyde told the Baltimore beat that Mateo will “miss some time,” but there’s still enough swelling to obfuscate the full recovery picture (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). While Mateo didn’t require immediate surgery, his arm was placed in a cast on Tuesday. He’ll eventually receive a second opinion, Weyrich tweets, and Hyde added that it’s “too soon” to tell whether Mateo will need surgery at some point.

With Mateo out for an indefinite period, Norby will “get some regular playing time” at second base, Hyde revealed. It’s a notable development both in the sense that Norby has ranked among the system’s best prospects since he was selected in the second round of the 2021 draft and in the sense that Norby has been a oft-speculated trade candidate as the O’s look to upgrade their pitching staff. The Orioles possess enough infield depth that they could still trade Norby — Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias can both play second base, and top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are looming in the upper minors — but that outcome seems less likely now that he’s ticketed for a near-everyday role in the big leagues.

Mateo, 29, has been the Orioles’ primary second baseman this season. He’s batted just .229/.267/.401 on the year. That’s 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but Mateo has provided modest pop (five homers, .172 ISO) and plenty of value on the basepaths (13-for-15 in steals). Defensive metrics feel he’s been roughly average with the glove — his penchant for highlight-reel plays not withstanding.

With what seems like a notable absence and even a potential for surgery on the table, Mateo’s outlook in Baltimore becomes cloudy. He’s due for one more arbitration raise this offseason and would reach free agency following the 2025 campaign. Given the possibility of a long layoff, the team’s enviable infield depth and the fact that Mateo is owed a raise on a $2.7MM salary, he could again emerge as an offseason trade candidate or non-tender candidate, depending on the ultimate prognosis for his injury.

The 24-year-old Norby isn’t likely to be a defensive upgrade but can be reasonably expected to provide a boost to an already potent lineup. He’s hitting .297/.389/.519 in Norfolk (133 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple, 13 steals (in 16 tries) and a stout 12.5% walk rate. Norby’s 27.7% strikeout rate with the Tides is a red flag, but punchouts haven’t been a long-running problem for the East Carolina University product.

Norby made his big league debut earlier this season, appearing in four games and going 3-for-14 with a home run before being sent back down. He can’t accrue a full year of service in 2024, meaning he’ll still be under club control for another six full seasons. He’s in the first of his three minor league option years and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason at the earliest.

The Orioles only recently acquired the 30-year-old Vieira in a trade with the Brewers, who’d also designated him for assignment. Baltimore added Vieira and righty Aneuris Rodriguez, sending minor league right-hander Garrett Stallings back to Milwaukee. Based on the way things played out with Vieira, it seems Rodriguez was the more interesting component of that swap for the O’s.

Vieira made only one appearance as a member of the Orioles, and went about as poorly as a debut could go. The right-hander faced five hitters but didn’t retire any of them, yielding a hit and four walks before being lifted from the game. He wound up being charged with three runs in what could very well end up an extremely brief stay in the organization.

Vieira is one of baseball’s hardest throwers, averaging 98 mph on a fastball that has often touched triple digits. He’s now appeared in 17 big league games this season and yielded runs in ten of them, however. In 22 1/3 frames between the Brewers and O’s, he’s logged an ugly 6.85 ERA. Despite his premium velocity, Vieira’s shaky command has undercut his ability to pile up strikeouts. This year’s 22.5% strikeout rate is effectively league-average (22.3%), but his 15.3% walk rate is one of the highest marks in baseball. He’s also struggled with home runs, yielding an average of 2.42 big flies per nine innings.

Though his MLB experience is limited, Vieira had a mostly solid run with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants in Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22. Command was still a problem for him even when pitching overseas, but he notched a 3.61 ERA there and whiffed 26.2% of his opponents. His pre-NPB track record in the majors was nearly as spotty as his results so far in 2024, however. Overall, he’s totaled 51 MLB innings but posted a 6.71 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate. The Orioles will have a week to trade Vieira, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

As for Mateo, he’ll head to the concussion list on the heels of a freak injury. He was clipped in the head by teammate Cedric Mullins’ bat when Mateo reached into the on-deck circle to grab a weight for his bat (X link with video). Ramon Urias subsequently pinch-hit for Mateo.

Once the Orioles’ primary shortstop, Mateo has instead seen the bulk of his action at second base this year, in addition to four appearances in center and two at his now-former shortstop slot. He’s hitting .246/.294/.447 with three homers and ten stolen bases in 128 plate appearances on the year.

General manager Mike Elias told 105.7 The Fan (X link) on Tuesday that the O’s will get Holliday “a lot” of work at second base in camp. The 20-year-old has started 25 games at the keystone in his minor league career. Holliday has made 110 starts at his primary shortstop spot. While the O’s certainly aren’t moving him off the infield’s most demanding position, there’s no harm in building his experience on either side of the second base bag.

Baltimore has plenty of infield talent even after including Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade. Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson can handle either position on the left side. Jordan Westburg split his time between second and third base while posting a solid .260/.311/.404 batting line over his first 228 MLB plate appearances.

Elias said the O’s would like to have a left-handed hitter who could factor into the second base mix, where the righty-swinging Westburg is in line for the majority of the playing time. Holliday could fit that bill once he’s officially called up, occasionally taking second base reps against tough right-handed starters (with Henderson sliding from third base to shortstop in that scenario). Baltimore acquired another lefty-hitting infield option, Nick Maton, in a small trade with Detroit last night.

The glut of infield talent should push last year’s Opening Day shortstop, Jorge Mateo, out of the regular lineup. The speedster remains on the roster despite speculation he could be traded or even non-tendered. Elias told The Fan that Mateo will see a decent amount of outfield run in Spring Training as he prepares for a utility role. While Baltimore has played Mateo mostly in the middle infield over the past two seasons, he has seen action in center field during his career.

Barring injury, Mateo isn’t going to be a regular on the outfield grass. He’s a good enough athlete to cover all three spots behind the projected starting trio of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. Top prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad reached the majors last year. Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard are all on the 40-man roster as well.

Hays found himself in the news this week, as the righty-hitting outfielder triumphed in his arbitration case against the club. He secured a $6.3MM salary for his second of three trips through that process. Hays is on track to get to free agency after the 2025 season, but his camp seems amenable to working out a long-term deal.

Francis Marquez, Hays’ representative at the MAS+ Agency, told Danielle Allentuck and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner that there were no hard feelings coming out of the hearing. That’s not always the case, as some players bristle at being criticized by team representatives in what is an inherently adversarial proceeding.

“It could’ve been something that would’ve derailed a lot of good faith that has been built, and it did not,” Marquez told the Baltimore Banner. “Unabashedly, Austin is an Oriole, and he feels that he is young enough and he’s good enough to be a member of the Orioles for a long time, not just the time that he has in the arbitration system. So I think in an ideal world, 100%, Austin Hays would like to be a player who just wears an Orioles uniform during his career.”

It’s unclear whether the team has any interest in retaining Hays beyond his six-year control window. Marquez told Allentuck and Kostka that there have not been any extension talks to this point. With highly-regarded prospects like Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers and last year’s first-round selection Enrique Bradfield Jr. in the system, Baltimore could decide to wait things out on their current starting outfield.

There’s ample long-term payroll space for the O’s if they decide to begin committing to some members of the core, Hays or otherwise. Baltimore’s only obligations beyond the upcoming season are a $1MM salary for star closer Félix Bautista and option buyouts to Craig Kimbrel, Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez.

Baltimore fans are hopeful the incoming ownership group will sign off on the kind of long-term deals which the team hasn’t made since John Angelos became point person. The incoming group led by David Rubenstein is set to take control of 40% of the franchise, pending approval from MLB’s other owners. (He’d assume a majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos.) Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported that a nine-person committee discussed the terms of the sale agreement at this week’s owners’ meeting. Weyrich suggests that MLB could move quickly to approve the sale based on their familiarity with Rubenstein, perhaps voting on it within a couple months.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.

Latest Moves

• The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
• Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
• Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
• Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
• The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
• The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
• Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
• The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
• The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Earlier Tonight

• The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
• The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
• The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.

In the years to come, however, his stock would fade as the approach at the plate didn’t seem to develop as hoped. He returned to High-A in 2016 and hit eight home runs but his batting average slipped to .254. Since he only walked in 6.5% of his plate appearances, his on-base percentage was a meager .306. In 2017, at High-A yet again, his walk rate dipped to 5.4% and his strikeout rate climbed from a decent 21.3% to a concerning 26.6%. That helped his batting average drop to .240 and his OBP to .288. He finally got bumped to Double-A and showed some positive strides, walking at a 10.7% clip in 30 games there, leading to a .300 batting average and .381 OBP. The Yanks then included him as one one of the three youngsters they sent to the Athletics in the deadline deal that brought Sonny Gray to the Bronx, alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian.

Though Mateo finished 2017 strong with his new organization, the concerns about his offense would be renewed the following year. Moved to Triple-A in 2018, he drew free passes in just 5.7% of his plate appearances while getting punched out in 27.3% of them. His .230/.280/.353 batting line led to a wRC+ of just 62. Back to Triple-A in 2019, he had a power breakout when he launched 19 home runs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he still walked at just a 5.1% clip and struck out 25.6% of the time.

Going into 2020, Mateo was out of options and still hadn’t made his major league debut. The A’s seemingly had little interest in giving him an active roster spot at that time. Transactions were frozen in March of 2020 when the pandemic put everything on pause, but once the freeze was lifted in June, the very first transaction in the league was Mateo getting flipped to the Padres for a player to be named later. That player was later reported to be outfield prospect Junior Perez.

The Padres kept Mateo on the roster in 2020 but didn’t hand him a regular role, giving him just 28 plate appearances over 22 games. The results weren’t encouraging in that brief time, as he walked in 3.6% of those trips to the plate and struck out in 39.3% of them. He managed to stick on the roster into the next season with the club still valuing his speed and defense, but he walked in just 2.2% of his plate appearances with the Friars in 2021 and struck out at a 29% clip, ultimately getting designated for assignment in August. The rebuilding Orioles put in a claim and put Mateo into 32 games but he finished the year on the injured list due to right lumbar inflammation.

Mateo was exactly the right kind of player for the O’s, who had been terrible for five years at that point and were still waiting for their top prospects to arrive. They could install him as a placeholder until the kids showed up and see if he did anything with the opportunity, with essentially nothing to lose if he failed. They made Mateo their everyday shortstop in 2022 and he showed that he could be a valuable player even with a poor performance at the plate. He did hit 13 home runs last year but the discipline issues were still there. He walked at just a 5.1% clip and was punched out in 27.6% of his appearances. He finished the year with a .221/.267/.379 batting line and 82 wRC+, indicating he was 18% below league average. However, he was on base enough to steal 35 bases. He also earned stellar grades for his glovework at short, including 14 Defensive Runs Saved, 11 Outs Above Average and a 7.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating, finishing in the top five among shortstops in each of those categories. The Fielding Bible Awards ranked him as the top shortstop in the league. FanGraphs valued Mateo’s season as being worth 2.7 wins above replacement, even with the subpar offense, while Baseball Reference gave him 3.4.

The O’s received some trade interest in Mateo over the winter, with clubs seemingly intrigued by how he could benefit from this year’s rule changes. The limits on pickoffs and defensive shifts were designed to encourage the exact kind of player that Mateo is, with plenty of speed and athleticism to showcase if given the chance. That appears to have proven true as he’s already swiped 12 bags this year, but Mateo has also seemingly made incredible progress with his long-standing issues at the plate. His 6.7% walk rate is still below league average but an improvement compared to his own track record. Meanwhile, he has struck out in just 20% of his plate appearances so far this year, a few ticks better than league average and far better than anything he had done in recent years.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner recently spoke to Mateo and co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte about how they were going for a simplified approach at the plate this year, allowing Mateo to avoid chasing breaking balls so much, which seems to be working. Mateo’s swing rate on pitches outside the zone is 33.9% this year, which is still a bit above the 2023 league average of 31.4% but a big drop from the 39.4% he had last year. He’s also already hit six home runs, almost halfway to last year’s tally of 13. His .304/.353/.565 batting line amounts to an incredible 149 wRC+.

His .328 batting average on balls in play is above this year’s .298 league average, which could perhaps point to some luck-based regression. But it stands to reason that he would have an above-average BABIP since his elite speed allows him to beat out more grounders than other hitters. His new approach also seems to helping him in terms of batted ball metrics so far. His 44.7% hard hit rate is almost 12 points above last year’s 32.9% rate. His 86.9 mph average exit velocity from last year is now 90.1 mph in 2023.

This is all still a sample size of 105 plate appearances in 29 games and it’s probably best not to suddenly decree that Mateo is one of the best hitters in the league. Baseball is a game of adjustments and opposing teams will take notice of his new approach at the plate and alter their plan of attack, which will leave Mateo responsible for reacting to that. Nonetheless, it’s still an incredibly encouraging development since Mateo showed last year that he could be a solid everyday contributor with poor offense. Even if he regresses and ultimately settles somewhere in between this year’s roaring start and last year’s showing, that still makes him a very valuable player.

It’s a great development for the O’s as well, though it may lead to some challenging decisions down the road. Many of the club’s notable prospects are potential future shortstops, including Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. Gunnar Henderson was once seen as the club’s shortstop of the future but has largely been bumped to third base by Mateo’s breakout. It seems likely that, at some point, there will be some kind of infield logjam that needs clearing out.

But that’s the kind of problem that teams dream about, especially coming out of a rebuild. Some of these players could be included in trades that fortify a weaker part of the club’s roster, such as their starting rotation. Mateo already received some trade interest and has likely only increased his value in that market with his hot start this year. Since he’s been in the big leagues since the start of 2020, he came into this season with exactly three years of service time, putting him on track for free agency after 2025. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this past winter, agreeing with the club on a $2MM salary, and will be able to get further raises in the next two winters.

Despite all of those twists and turns with the Yankees, A’s, Padres and now Orioles, Mateo is still just 27 years old, turning 28 next month, meaning he’s set to hit the open market just a few months after his 30th birthday. There would surely be plenty of interest if the O’s market the next two and a half years of a shortstop with a high floor who is seemingly pushing his ceiling up. But the club is right in the mix of the playoff race, currently 22-12 in the early going, seeming more like a legitimate contender as the days go by. If they can keep that up through July, it would make more sense to keep Mateo while he’s thriving and perhaps consider including one of their prospects in a trade instead. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but for now, it seems possible that both Mateo and the O’s are benefitting from a breakout that was a dream a decade ago and seemed dead until very recently.

A former top prospect in the Yankees and Oakland farm systems, Mateo at times can be undone by an overaggressive approach at the plate. He’s walked in fewer than 5% of his MLB plate appearances while striking out nearly 28% of the time, leading to a dismal .271 career on-base percentage. Things were even more extreme this past season, as his .267 OBP topped only that of Jonathan Schoop and Cody Bellinger among hitters with 500+ plate appearances.

While Mateo doesn’t have an especially well-rounded skillset, he tapped into the physical gifts that made him a high-end prospect this year. After bouncing from the A’s to the Padres, the 27-year-old landed in Baltimore late in 2021 via waiver claim. He got his first everyday run at the major league level this past season. Mateo’s plate discipline profile was ghastly, but he demonstrated his top-tier athleticism. He stole an AL-best 35 bases in 44 attempts, showcasing the speed that garnered top-of-the-scale grades when he was a prospect.

As Rosenthal points out, that kind of athleticism could be particularly appealing in light of the rules changes going into effect for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting a limit on the number of times a pitcher can step off the mound in a plate appearance and enlarging the bases, both of which should at least moderately incentivize base-stealing.

The league is also instituting limitations on defensive shifting, requiring clubs to keep two infielders on either side of the second base bag and four players on the infield dirt. Teams could place more of a premium on athletic defenders as a result, since it’ll be more difficult to compensate for players who have below-average range via strategic positioning.

Mateo thrived defensively this year, posting top-tier marks in over 1250 innings at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 14 runs above average at the position, the third-highest mark in MLB. Statcast estimated Mateo at eight runs above par, tying him for fourth among shortstops. He showcased both high-end range and above-average arm strength and looks to have emerged as a plus defender.

Maintaining that kind of defensive production will be critical for Mateo unless he takes a significant step forward in his offensive development. This year’s .211/.267/.379 line was 18 percentage points worse than average, by measure of wRC+. His baserunning means he’s not completely a glove-only player, but he’ll need to sustain high-end defensive marks to remain valuable with such tepid output at the plate. That Mateo is attracting interest from other teams in spite of his offense is a testament both to his secondary skills and the scarcity of alternatives.

The star-studded free agent shortstop class was one of the stories of the offseason. All four of the top players — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — ended up changing teams. That somewhat surprising amount of shuffling leads to the Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and Braves having to identify new solutions to replace their outgoing stars.

All four clubs have some internal possibilities, but none are ideal situations. Minnesota acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds as a stopgap option, while Royce Lewis is expected back midseason after his tearing the ACL in his right knee for a second straight year. The Dodgers can move Gavin Lux from second base to shortstop while relying on some combination of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and prospects like Jacob Amaya or Miguel Vargas at the keystone. Lux is a former top prospect coming off a productive .276/.346/.399 showing, but his below-average arm strength could be a concern on the left side of the infield.

Boston has a somewhat similar situation, with Trevor Story currently likely to move back to shortstop from second base. The longtime Rockie was a plus defender at shortstop for a while, but he also has a below-average arm at this stage of his career. The Sox don’t have as strong a collection of internal second base options as L.A. does, with Christian Arroyo looking to be the favorite for playing time if Enrique Hernández stays in center field. The Braves have utilityman Orlando Arcia and rookie Vaughn Grissom — who has played 63 career games above High-A and comes with defensive question marks from prospect evaluators — as their internal candidates.

It’s sensible all four teams could explore the market for shortstop help, and clubs like the Angels and Diamondbacks could check in as well. Free agency is largely picked through at this point, with Elvis Andrus standing out as the top option remaining. José Iglesias offers a high-contact depth option and Andrelton Simmons is still an excellent defender, but neither profiles as a regular for a hopeful contender.

Trade possibilities also seems sparse. The Guardians could perhaps listen to offers on Amed Rosario for his final season of arbitration control. There’s been no indication this offseason they’re planning to do so, however. The Brewers are reportedly informing teams they’re not dealing Willy Adames; the same is true of the White Sox with Tim Anderson. Players like Nick Ahmed or Nicky Lopez could be dealt, but they’re defense-only types who’d be below-average everyday players for a win-now team.

Mateo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.8MM salary during his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process twice more before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign. That extended window of control means the Orioles don’t have to deal him, and there’s no indication they’re actively shopping him. Baltimore’s rebuild is in the rearview mirror, and Mateo’s modest arbitration salary isn’t placing any financial pressure on the organization.

There’s logic for general manager Mike Elias and his staff to entertain trade offers, though, particularly if they’re wary of Mateo’s ability to maintain his 2022 pace with the glove. The lack of other options for teams desperate for shortstop help could increase their sense of urgency to pursue him, while Baltimore has a number of prospects they hope will eventually unseat him as the franchise shortstop.

Gunnar Henderson debuted at the end of the season, primarily working at third base in deference to Mateo. The O’s could roll with a left side infield of Mateo and Henderson while having Ramón Urías and the recently-signed Adam Frazier share reps at second base. Baltimore has highly-regarded prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz just behind that group, with both players coming off quality seasons for Triple-A Norfolk. Westburg and Ortiz — the latter of whom is already on the 40-man roster — could each find themselves in the majors fairly early in the 2023 campaign, and both are regarded by various prospect evaluators as potential everyday shortstops.

Valaika has logged substantial big league action with the O’s in each of the last two seasons. He flashed some intriguing power potential last year, popping eight home runs in 150 plate appearances en route to a solid .277/.315/.475 showing. But he struggled badly over a slightly longer look this year, posting a .192/.251/.280 line over 212 trips to the dish. He was designated for assignment and passed through outright waivers last month. Valaika will be eligible for arbitration this offseason, but given his disappointing season, he looks like a non-tender candidate.

Baltimore grabbed Mateo off waivers from the Padres last month, with the rebuilding O’s in a far better position than the win-now Padres to give regular playing time to the former top prospect. (Mateo is out of minor league option years, so he’d spent much of his San Diego tenure in a bench role). The 26-year-old showed fairly well in his look with the Orioles, hitting .280/.328/.421 with a pair of homers and five stolen bases over 116 plate appearances. His season comes to a premature end because of the injury, but he’s seemingly done enough to warrant a spot on Baltimore’s 40-man roster over the upcoming offseason.

Unlike Mateo, Scott isn’t officially ruled out for the rest of the year by his IL placement. Nevertheless, manager Brandon Hyde suggested to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) the hard-throwing reliever is unlikely to make it back this season. Scott appeared in 62 games and tossed 54 innings of 5.17 ERA ball, striking out a solid 27.9% of opponents but issuing walks at an elevated 14.7% clip. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason.

While he’s now technically just one step from the big leagues, it’s hard to imagine Rutschman would be summoned to the Majors before season’s end. The Orioles have just a 38-72 record on the season, and they’d gain another year of control over Rutschman by waiting until the third week of the 2022 season to promote him to the big leagues, barring any changes to service time structure in collective bargaining talks between MLB and the MLB Players Association. The current CBA expires on Dec. 1, and service time issues such as this are widely expected to be a talking point.

Some more notes out of Baltimore…

• While Rutschman is the hopeful future at catcher for the Orioles, it’s been Pedro Severino there more often than anyone else over the past couple of seasons. The 28-year-old has batted .245/.316/.400 over the past three seasons in Baltimore (94 wRC+), but his bat has dipped slightly in 2021. Kubatko suggests that Severino, who’ll be a due a raise on this year’s $1.825MM salary in arbitration over the winter, is likely to instead be non-tendered by the O’s. Severino has been a solid bat relative to other catchers around the league, but defensively, he’s had his share of struggles. He’s been roughly average in terms of caught-stealing rate over the past few years, but Severino draws poor pitch-blocking ratings at Baseball Prospectus, sub-par framing marks and checked in at -19 Defensive Runs Saved since coming to the O’s in 2019.
• The Orioles are open to eventually playing Jorge Mateo in the outfield, writes Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun, but manager Brandon Hyde also added that the team’s hope is to get the recently claimed speedster comfortable playing in the middle infield. Baltimore claimed the 26-year-old Mateo off waivers from the Padres just four days ago — a move that could finally give the former top prospect a path to regular playing time in the big leagues. Mateo originally signed with the Yankees but was traded to Oakland in the Sonny Gray swap and then to the Padres for a player to be named later. Mateo is 3-for-11 with a double, a triple and a pair of steals to begin his Orioles tenure. The Padres acquired Mateo on June 30, 2020, but on a win-now club with a crowded roster, he never had much of an avenue to playing time. He appeared in 79 games with San Diego from 2020-21 but only recorded a combined 121 plate appearances in that time.

Mateo has spent the past season-plus in San Diego, tallying his first 121 MLB plate appearances in the process. He’s only managed a .195/.235/.310 line with two home runs in that time, but Mateo’s also never had the benefit of regular playing time on a win-now Padres club. However, because Mateo is out of minor league options, San Diego had to keep him on the active roster or else risk losing his long-term rights. That left the 26-year-old as a sort of designated bench piece, with most of his time coming as a pinch hitter, pinch runner or late-game defensive replacement (primarily in the outfield).

As with the Padres, the O’s have to keep Mateo on the big league roster or risk losing him on waivers themselves. Mateo ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America for three consecutive seasons (2016-18) thanks to his blistering speed and decent raw power. There’s plenty more opportunity for the rebuilding Orioles to give him a regular look against big league pitching if they’re so inclined. If Mateo earns a permanent spot on the roster, he can be controlled through 2025.

Valaika has spent the past two seasons in Baltimore. He broke into the majors with the Rockies, briefly landed with the Diamondbacks, but wound up with the Orioles on waivers. Valaika performed well in a brief look in 2020 (.277/.315/.475 over 150 plate appearances) but he hasn’t followed up on that this season. The 28-year-old has tallied 212 trips to the dish this year and managed just a .192/.251/.280 line with four homers.

Baltimore will place Valaika on waivers in the coming days. Should he pass through unclaimed, he’d have the right to reject a minor league assignment by virtue of the fact that he’s previously been outrighted in his career.

San Diego acquired Mateo from the A’s last June. The former top prospect was out of minor league options, so the Padres had to keep him on the big league club (or injured list) in order to retain his long-term rights. The Friars have kept Mateo on the active roster over the past two seasons, although they’ve never seemed especially eager to give him regular playing time. The 26-year-old has tallied just 121 plate appearances over 79 games, serving mostly as a late-game pinch hitter, pinch runner or defensive replacement.

Mateo’s lack of roster flexibility made him something of an odd fit on a win-now Padres club. He hasn’t shown enough in his limited playing time to force his way into a more regular role, hitting .195/.235/.310 with terrible strikeout and walk rates (31.4% and 2.5%, respectively). That said, the Padres’ front office clearly remained intrigued by his physical gifts and one-time prospect status.

It’s certainly not inconceivable another club will give Mateo a look. He’ll be placed on waivers, and it’s possible a less immediate contender could place a claim and give him more consistent reps than San Diego could offer. Of course, any claiming team would also have to keep Mateo on the big league club or again expose him to waivers.

Strahm hasn’t pitched all season. The 29-year-old has missed the entire campaign recovering from right knee surgery. Last year, he worked 20 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA/4.24 SIERA ball over nineteen appearances. Strahm will join Drew Pomeranz and Tim Hill as left-handed bullpen options for manager Jayce Tingler.