Of that group, Montgomery has long seemed to be the most likely player to move. The lefty was a late-spring signing by the Diamondbacks last year, and the deal hasn’t gone well for anyone. Montgomery struggled badly in his first season in the desert, pitching to a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings of work. His 4.48 FIP was substantially better than that top-level run prevention figure, though even that was below average. Diamondbacks ownership went as far as to publicly criticize Montgomery shortly after the 2024 season came to a close, so it’s no surprise that the Snakes have long appeared motivated to move the southpaw ahead of his age-32 season. The addition of Burnes could at least theoretically open the door to Arizona feeling comfortable enough with its rotation depth to more seriously consider dealing one of its other arms, but it stands to reason that the club would still prefer to move Montgomery all else equal.

After such a disastrous 2024 campaign, it’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks getting much of significance for the lefty’s services beyond some salary relief. Montgomery is slated to earn $22.5MM in 2025, a hefty sum that it seems unlikely that the club will be able to fully get off of its books. With that being said, the ever-increasing price of starting pitching makes the deal at least a little bit more palatable than it might seem at first glance. After all, the Red Sox guaranteed right-hander Walker Buehler $21.05MM for the 2025 season on the heels of a lackluster campaign where he posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts. The Tigers, meanwhile, guaranteed 37-year-old veteran Alex Cobb $15MM on the heels of a 2024 campaign where he made just three regular season starts.

Both of those players have substantial previous success to lean on, but so does Montgomery. The lefty won the World Series with the Rangers in 2023, and in doing so capped off a three-season stretch where he pitched to a strong 3.48 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.62 FIP across 94 starts. So long as the Diamondbacks aren’t looking to get anything of particular significance back in return, it’s relatively easy to imagine them being able to offload at least $15MM or so of Montgomery’s salary. Which teams could be best positioned to take a one-year roll of the dice on the lefty’s services? A look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:

Best Fits

• Athletics: The A’s have been quite aggressive in looking to upgrade their club this winter, in part as they attempt to avoid a grievance with the MLBPA regarding their use of revenue sharing dollars. They’ve already added Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to their rotation this winter, but club brass left the door open for a third starting pitching acquisition this winter if the opportunity presented itself. Enter Montgomery, the acquisition of whom could push the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $105MM range they’re reportedly targeting even if Arizona ate some of the money. If Montgomery manages to bounce back in 2025, he’d join Severino, Springs, JP Sears, and Mitch Spence in a surprisingly formidable rotation for the club’s first season in West Sacramento.
• Braves: Atlanta has a clear need for rotation help after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency this winter, but the club has been uncharacteristically slow to get to work this winter. With that being said, Alex Anthopoulos’s front office has long shown a fondness for one-year additions coming off down seasons like Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna. Arguably, that list also includes reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale as the lefty was entering the final guaranteed year of his deal with Boston when the Braves traded for him. A trade for Montgomery surely wouldn’t go quite as well as the one for Sale did, but it’s easy to imagine the lefty bouncing back in the Braves rotation alongside Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach in 2025.
• White Sox: Chicago may seem like an odd fit for Montgomery, given the fact that they’re coming off the worst season in MLB history with virtually no hope of making noise in the AL Central race during this coming season. The fact that they’re one of the only clearly rebuilding clubs in the game right now could make them a unique potential suitor for Montgomery’s services, however. Their rotation mix is filled to the brim with young arms who could prove to be interesting but offer little certainty, so adding a veteran arm like Montgomery could make sense for all sides. It’s possible the White Sox, with a payroll that RosterResource projects at just $78MM in 2025, could actually absorb the entirety of Montgomery’s salary in exchange for a prospect from Arizona. If Montgomery pitches well in the first half, Chicago could then flip the lefty at the deadline for additional young talent to keep their rebuild chugging along.

Next Tier Down

• Astros: It’s possible to imagine the Astros being content with their current starting depth after adding Hayden Wesneski to the mix in the Kyle Tucker trade and likely welcoming right-hander Luis Garcia back into the fold in time for Opening Day after he missed the 2024 season due to injury. With that being said, the club did lose both Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy from its rotation depth this winter and is known to be shopping right-hander Ryan Pressly on the trade market this winter while searching for left-handed hitting outfielders. Arizona has a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders and is known to be on the hunt of late-inning relief help, so perhaps there’s a fit here involving some combination of Montgomery, Pressly, and young Diamondbacks outfielder like Alek Thomas.
• Mariners: Seattle may seem like a somewhat unusual fit for Montgomery’s services given the club’s strong rotation, but there seems to be at least some possibility that the club will trade right-hander Luis Castillo this winter. Doing so would leave the club with little rotation depth, however. Theoretically, it’s easy enough to imagine the Mariners dealing Castillo to another club in exchange for infield help, and then using the saved money from the deal in order to pivot towards acquiring Montgomery to restock the rotation. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has certainly shown a willingness to get similarly creative in the past, and Mike Hazen’s front office in Arizona has been one of his most frequent trade partners over the years.
• Mets: The Mets aren’t in a position where they need to add another starter, with a rotation mix that currently runs eight players deep. With that being said, Montgomery’s salary would hardly be excessively cumbersome for the big-spending Mets, and David Stearns has shown a fondness for reclamation projects in the rotation. Given the Mets’ success in rehabilitating the careers of Luis Severino and Sean Manaea last winter, it would hardly be a surprise if the club found similar success in doing so with Montgomery.

Longer Shots

• Cubs: The White Sox aren’t the only Chicago team Montgomery could at least theoretically make sense for. The Cubs are known to be in the market for another starting pitcher, and their pursuit of lefty Jesús Luzardo earlier this winter indicate a willingness on the club’s part to roll the dice on a hurler coming off a down season like Montgomery. With that being said, the club reportedly turned down a trade involving Montgomery and Cody Bellinger earlier this winter. Given the fact that the Cubs ended up trading Bellinger for little more than salary relief last month, it stands to reason that Jed Hoyer’s front office either has little interest in Montgomery’s services or at the very least preferred to open up that payroll space for other pursuits.
• Orioles: Baltimore would’ve seemed like one of the better on-paper fits for Montgomery’s services just a week ago, but they recently inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year deal for 2025. That won’t necessarily take them out of the rotation market entirely, but it seems as though Baltimore would only add to its rotation in order to bring in a clear upgrade over its internal options. Given Montgomery’s down season, it’s hard to imagine the club feeling that way about him at this point. After all, fifth starter Dean Kremer posted a higher ERA+ than Montgomery in two of the last three seasons.
• Rangers: Montgomery was a key piece in the Rangers’ 2023 World Series championship, and the club seemingly had plenty of interest in bringing the lefty back last winter. Much like Montgomery himself, the Rangers had a down year in 2024 and missed the postseason. With Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney now free agents, there could potentially be room for a reunion in the Texas rotation. With that being said, the club appears determined to remain under the first luxury tax threshold and has a number of young starters who they could opt to lean on in 2025 instead, like Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker.

According to Piecoro, no “other deals [are] lined up or even close” involving Arizona’s pitchers, as the Diamondbacks will continue to take a measured view of the market.  A source tells Piecoro that the D’Backs will likely “spend the coming days fielding calls from teams still in the hunt for starters, including those that were in on Burnes.”  The D’Backs aren’t in any particular rush to complete a trade any time soon, as having more than a full rotation in place before New Year’s Eve gives the club plenty of time to figure out the best possible offer.

It also isn’t entirely out of the question that the Diamondbacks stand pat on their starters, especially if an injury emerges to a starter during their offseason training, or during Spring Training.  Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery all missed significant time with injuries last season, so there is obvious value in having extra pitchers on hand should any more health issues create openings in the rotation.  Operating with a six-man rotation is also a possibility, in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh for what the D’Backs hope can be an extended run through the playoffs.

Given how the Burnes deal reportedly came together just within the last week when Burnes himself approached the D’Backs, it isn’t surprising that the signing wasn’t part of an immediate plan to re-model the pitching staff.  Such two-step transactions are usually hard to pull off, though the Diamondbacks were part of such a set of moves from the Guardians just last week — Arizona acquired Josh Naylor from the Guards, and Cleveland then signed Carlos Santana that same day to immediately fill Naylor’s spot as the everyday first baseman.

The fact that Burnes signed with a team that was seemingly already set for starting pitching gives GM Mike Hazen even more leverage in shopping his hurlers.  Such known Burnes suitors like the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Giants are still in need of pitching, to say nothing of the many other starter-needy clubs on the market that weren’t willing or able to meet Burnes’ asking price.

Nothing seems to have changed in terms of which starters are most prominently on Arizona’s trade block.  Gallen and Kelly are both free agents next winter but don’t seem likely to be dealt, as a team source told Piecoro that the team’s focus in on “trying to put the best team on the field in 2025.”  Nelson is controlled through the 2027 season and Pfaadt through the 2029 season, so the Diamondbacks would probably only move either if a longer-term asset (likely a position player) could be obtained in return.  The D’Backs might not mind moving the $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s contract, but the club would certainly have to sell low and eat some of that money in the wake of E-Rod’s injury-plagued down year.

That leaves Montgomery as still the chief candidate to be dealt before Opening Day.  Montgomery’s trade value is also at a low ebb after his rough first year in Arizona, and his $22.5MM salary for the 2025 season.  Owner Ken Kendrick’s public criticism of Montgomery following the season only increased the probability that the left-hander would be pitching elsewhere next year, yet again, the Burnes signing gives the D’Backs some flexibility in this regard.  The Diamondbacks technically don’t have to trade Montgomery if an acceptable offer for another starter comes their way, and offers for Montgomery might improve if other teams become increasingly desperate to add pitching.

Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary.  This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.

Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season.  Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs.  Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.

D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere.  If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.

A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.”  Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score.  It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.

From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs.  Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base.  While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders.  Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.

The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation.  Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department.  Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.

Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason.  It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.

The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto.  Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.

While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year.  After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter.  That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.

Of the six, Montgomery is the most obvious trade candidate, following a rough 2024 showing and owner Ken Kendrick’s public, verbal thrashing of the player. In October, Kendrick openly lamented ever pushing his front office to sign Montgomery late in the 2023-24 offseason, calling it a “horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did” and “our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Montgomery unsurprisingly exercised a $22.5MM player option even after being called out by Kendrick — a straightforward decision for a pitcher coming off an injury-shortened year with career-worst marks in ERA (6.23), strikeout rate (15.6%) and walk rate (8.3%).

For all the focus placed on Montgomery’s struggles last year, the other veteran lefty signed by Arizona last offseason also fell well short of expectations. Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM pact with the Snakes but was limited to just 10 starts after opening the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He pitched 50 innings of 5.04 ERA ball while showing diminished life on his four-seamer and sinker. Rodriguez is owed $20MM for the coming season, $21MM in 2026 and $19MM in 2027. He’s also guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a $17MM mutual option for the 2028 season — an option that could automatically vest based on his innings tallies in 2026-27. While Montgomery’s contract is underwater, the three years and $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s pact very likely make him even harder to unload.

Any of  the other four arms in Arizona’s rotation would be hard to pry loose. Ace Zac Gallen is a Cy Young contender when healthy, evidenced by fifth- and third-place finishes in 2022 and 2023 balloting. He missed about a month of action with a hamstring strain in 2024 and flashed worse command than usual (relative to his excellent standards, anyhow), but any team would love to have the right-hander. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM in his final season of club control before becoming a free agent next winter. Gallen is not being shopped, to be clear. Hazen even chuckled at the mere notion of Gallen being a prominent trade candidate in a mid-November appearance on Arizona Sports 98.7’s Wolf & Luke Show (2:35 mark). That’s unlikely to stop other teams from trying.

Kelly, like Gallen, is a free agent next offseason. He missed more than three months in 2024 with a shoulder strain but was generally effective when healthy, logging a 4.03 ERA with a slightly below-average 21% strikeout rate and a strong 6.3% walk rate. Arizona made an easy call to exercise a $7MM club option on Kelly for the upcoming season.

Nelson and Pfaadt are both controllable and thus quite valuable to the Snakes. The 26-year-old Nelson is under club control for four more seasons and just tossed 150 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate in 2024. Those numbers are skewed by a slow start, but from July onward, Nelson posted a 3.05 ERA, 24.8 K% and 5.0 BB% in 82 2/3 frames. He’s not yet eligible for arbitration.

Pfaadt, also 26, paced the D-backs with 181 2/3 innings and 32 starts. His 4.71 ERA doesn’t stand out, but his 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, 3.61 FIP and 3.65 SIERA are all far more encouraging. He might’ve worn down a bit late in the season as he pushed through that new career-high workload, as his worst months were August and September. A disproportionate amount of the damage against Pfaadt this season came in one nightmare September outing, wherein the Brewers tagged him for eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Lopping off even that one start would cause his season-long ERA to drop by nearly 40 points. Regardless, the former top prospect is a 2025 breakout candidate when considering his pedigree and rate stats that far outpace his pedestrian earned run average. Of the arms on the big league staff, he’s probably the most difficult for another team to acquire.

There’s depth even beyond that sextet. Right-hander Drey Jameson will be back from 2023 Tommy John surgery next year. He’s already had some big league success. There are another five starters on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A, all of whom have minor league options remaining and at least a bit of MLB experience: Yilber Diaz, Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena and Tommy Henry. Few organizations boast a stockpile of arms so deep.

All of that is to say — it’s hardly a surprise that clubs are calling the D-backs about their starters. The same is true of their outfielders, as Hazen already acknowledged a couple weeks back. Piecoro writes that (naturally) Montgomery is both the likeliest to move and the pitcher whom the team would most strongly prefer to deal. Hazen stated that Kendrick’s comments regarding the left-hander have “zero” impact on the urgency to trade him, though there’s likely some public-facing lip service at play there.

Piecoro adds that the D-backs would be willing to take on another contract of some note in return for Montgomery (if said player filled a roster need) or perhaps pursue more of a traditional salary dump, where they shed as much of the contract as possible for little to no return. Of note, Hazen suggested that if he’s to ultimately move Montgomery in deal that is primarily rooted in salary relief, the trade would need to come together before the bulk of quality free agents come off the board: “At some point, it doesn’t make sense because your pivot moves are picking at the edges rather than getting somebody (who is more of a target).”

Montgomery’s first season in the desert was a nightmare. The veteran southpaw signed late on a $25MM pillow contract after his market failed to materialize. He changed his representation shortly into the season and has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with how former agent Scott Boras handled negotiations. Montgomery surely hoped to retest the market after one season, but he didn’t pitch well enough to give himself that opportunity.

Opponents teed off for a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings. Arizona pushed him out of the rotation after 21 starts, the first time in his career that he lost a starting job. The only silver lining was that Montgomery made enough starts to vest the option that he eventually pushed to a $22.5MM value.

Owner Ken Kendrick pulled no punches after the season. “If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed,” the owner said after the team narrowly missed the playoffs. “Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

There was some chatter that Kendrick went public hoping to alienate Montgomery so the pitcher would pass on the option. If that was the intent, it never stood much chance. Montgomery would have been leaving millions on the table if he returned to free agency. He’d likely have been looking at a one-year contract in the $8-12MM range in that case. Even if Montgomery wants a fresh start, that’s too much to bypass. Arizona will probably look for ways to offload a portion of the deal in an offseason trade, though they wouldn’t be able to shed the entire salary without taking back an undesirable contract in their own right.

Owner Ken Kendrick appeared on The Burns & Gambo Show on Monday afternoon. Asked about the team’s late free agent pickup of Jordan Montgomery, the owner both took responsibility for the signing while not holding back with an indictment of the southpaw’s performance.

“If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed,” Kendrick said (starting around the 12:45 mark). “Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

It’s the kind of public criticism that an owner rarely levels at a player who remains on the roster. Montgomery’s $25MM deal contained a vesting player option for the upcoming season. That was initially valued at $20MM and the veteran pushed that to $22.5MM by reaching 18 starts. He’s certainly not going to walk away from that sum after this season, so he’ll at least go into the offseason on the Arizona roster.

Montgomery’s 2024 campaign was very underwhelming. He allowed a 6.23 earned run average through 117 innings while striking out a career-low 15.6% of batters faced. Montgomery had an ERA above 5.00 in every month from May onward. He lost his spot in the rotation late in the year when Ryne Nelson outperformed him for the fifth starter job. Montgomery stepped back into the rotation with Nelson on the injured list in the season’s final couple weeks. He allowed three runs without completing five innings in either of his final two starts — games which Arizona dropped in Colorado and Milwaukee respectively.

Kendrick certainly isn’t alone in being frustrated with Montgomery’s performance. It’s nevertheless surprising to see an owner publicly call a free agent signing “a horrible decision” while that player is still on the team.

General manager Mike Hazen conducted his annual end-of-season press conference on Tuesday. As one would expect, the GM took a more diplomatic tone when asked about Kendrick’s statement. Hazen began by stating that as the leader of baseball operations, he is “ultimately responsible to say no … or yes to a lot of things” (relayed on X by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). The GM called the Montgomery signing “a group process” before stating that he expects better results in 2025. “Whatever myriad of factors went into this year … it didn’t work out. It didn’t work out, but I also think next year is going to look a lot different,” Hazen concluded.

The GM’s comments are far more typical in these kinds of situations. Even if the Montgomery signing was driven by ownership, Hazen isn’t likely to take a public jab at Kendrick. One can debate how sincerely Hazen expects Montgomery to rebound, though it’s hard to imagine he won’t improve to some extent. Before this season, the 6’6″ lefty had been one of the more consistent pitchers in MLB. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA with 30+ starts in each year from 2021-23. Montgomery’s late signing deprived him of a normal Spring Training.

In August, Montgomery opined that former agent Scott Boras “kind of butchered” his free agency. That’s presumably a reference both to the one-year guarantee that fell well shy of expectations and his late landing in the desert. Montgomery changed his representation within weeks of signing with Arizona.

Kendrick’s comments figure to further speculation that the D-Backs could try to trade Montgomery this offseason. That’d probably have a goal for the front office in either case. They’re not going to find anyone willing to take on his entire salary, but the Snakes could try to explore an undesirable contract swap of some kind. Arizona goes into the offseason with a projected rotation of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nelson. That’s a talented group on paper, but only Gallen and Nelson performed up to expectations late in the year. Pfaadt posted an ERA near 6.00 after the All-Star Break, while Rodriguez and Kelly battled shoulder injuries and didn’t pitch at their typical level during the playoff push.

Nelson, 26, entered the season seemingly squeezed out of the club’s rotation mix by the club’s signings of lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery over the offseason. That was hardly surprising after a pedestrian 2023 season where he pitched to a below-average 5.31 ERA and 5.07 FIP across 29 appearances (27 starts) for Arizona last year. That said, injuries throughout the club’s rotation have kept Nelson in the club’s rotation almost all year. He’s made the most of the unexpected opportunity and pitched quite well, with a 4.33 ERA that’s roughly league average (96 ERA+) and a strong 3.77 FIP in 147 2/3 innings of work. While that hasn’t necessarily been enough to give him a leg up over fellow youngster Brandon Pfaadt (4.42 ERA, 3.54 FIP) at the back-of-the-rotation, injuries and ineffectiveness have hampered both Rodriguez and especially Montgomery this year, leading the Diamondbacks to kick the latter to the bullpen late last month.

With Nelson now headed to the IL, Montgomery appears ticketed for a return to the rotation as noted by Alex Weiner of AZ Sports. It’s been a disastrous year for the 31-year-old lefty as he pitched to a 6.44 ERA and 4.57 FIP in 19 starts before getting kicked from the rotation, though he’s looked a bit better with a slightly more palatable 4.85 ERA and 4.40 FIP since moving to a multi-inning relief role. For the time being, the Diamondbacks will have to hope that the brief sojourn to the bullpen has helped Montgomery figure things out enough to pitch effectively as a starter for the time being. Fortunately, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic) that the club is optimistic regarding Nelson’s injury and hopes he’ll be able to return after a minimum stay on the shelf, which could allow him to make one more start before the regular season comes to an end.

Montgomery’s impending move back into the rotation leaves the club down a lefty in the bullpen, and that’s a call that Hughes now figures to answer. Drafted as an outfielder by the Cubs in the 16th round of the 2017 draft, Hughes converted to pitching back in 2019 and worked his way through Chicago’s minor league system to make it to Wrigley Field in 2022. The southpaw impressed with a 3.12 ERA and 4.64 FIP with a 28.5% strikeout rate in 57 2/3 innings of work for the rebuilding Cubs and even picked up eight saves after taking over the closer role in Chicago following the departures of David Robertson and Chris Martin at that year’s trade deadline.

Unfortunately, Hughes was hampered by knee surgery that cost him the majority of the 2023 season and found himself non-tendered by the Cubs last fall. That led him to sign with the Snakes on a minor league deal, but he’s struggled badly in limited opportunities in the majors with the club this year as he’s posted a 10.29 ERA and 9.96 FIP in 14 innings of work. That being said, his numbers with Triple-A Reno this year have been nothing short of excellent as he’s posted a 2.03 ERA and struck out 24.9% of opponents in 48 2/3 innings of work. Now he’ll get another opportunity in the Arizona bullpen alongside fellow lefties Joe Mantiply and A.J. Puk.

Hughes will take the 40-man roster spot of Knizner, who the Diamondbacks claimed off waivers from the Rangers just over a month ago. The 29-year-old backstop didn’t make it to the big leagues with Arizona, instead slashing a decent .274/.357/.397 in 20 games with the club’s affiliate in Reno, but appeared in 35 games in the majors with Texas earlier this year after spending half a decade as an up-and-down catcher for the Cardinals. His time with the Rangers did not go particularly well, as he hit just .167/.183/.211 in 93 trips to the plate. That paltry offensive production was particularly disappointing following the best offensive season of Knizner’s career last year, when he pitched to a .241/.288/.424 slash line with ten homers in just 241 trips to the plate. Should Knizner go unclaimed on waivers, the club would have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues but he’d be poised to head into minor league free agency this November.

The two pitchers in that foursome evidently have different feelings about how this played out, based both on their actions and their words. Montgomery landed a one-year, $25MM deal with the Diamondbacks that didn’t become official until March 29. The deal also contained a $20MM vesting player option that Montgomery could unlock with at least ten starts in 2024, with his 18th and 23rd starts also adding $2.5MM to the option. On April 11, less than two weeks after that deal was signed, it was reported that Montgomery had switched his representation from Scott Boras to Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman.

“I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it,” Montgomery said last week, per Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald, “so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.” Montgomery adds that, to his knowledge, he didn’t receive an offer from the Red Sox in the winter.

“Yeah, for sure. Me and my wife loved it here. She was at Beth Israel for a year, love the area, love the fans,” Montgomery said when asked whether he would have considered an offer from the Sox. “It would have been awesome if it had worked out that way, but it didn’t.”

The Herald also received a comment from Boras himself in response. “I saw what Jordan said. I know what it is to be frustrated with this game. As a former player I feel for him. But I’m also a lawyer with obligations to my clients, including former ones. So I cannot discuss what happened or the decisions Jordan made unless he gives me permission,” Boras said. “If he gives me the green light I’ll be happy to talk about it. I’ve been doing this for over 35 years. I relay all offers and relevant information to all my clients and act at their direction. They make all decisions. We wish Jordan well.”

Montgomery was frequently connected to the Red Sox both because the club was in need of starting pitching and because his wife was working in the area, as he mentioned. Most reporting throughout the offseason suggested that the two sides weren’t close to agreeing on a deal. In early March, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the two sides were in contact but that Montgomery was looking for a seven-year deal that the Sox didn’t want to give out.

We can’t know for sure what sorts of discussions were taking place between Boras and the Red Sox, or any other teams, but Montgomery is clearly not thrilled with the way it played out. Not everyone places the blame on Boras though, as Blake Snell is still a Boras guy and defended him when asked about the Montgomery comments.

“My experience with Scott has been great,” Snell said yesterday, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. “He told me everything that was happening, all the offers I got. So for him to just get bashed for what I believe is false, that’s not fair at all. I really strongly believe that.”

When asked about Montgomery’s tough time, Snell responded thusly: “He signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

Boras has a lengthy track record of securing huge deals for his clients but it’s possible that he still could have whiffed on the recent offseason, which Snell was asked about. “Yeah, or it could just be a free agency where no one was really pushing to get anybody,” said Snell. “It sucks because that was … our year to get our deals that we worked so hard to get. But ultimately the market’s the market. You can’t control it. You can’t get upset about it the way it is. Just pitch better, find a way to do better, continue to compete. Whatever you believe you deserve, you go earn it.”

There is some logic to Snell’s framing of the winter, which was mostly defined by a lack of spending. Only four free agents got nine-figure deals in the winter, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, compared to nine in the previous offseason. Of the four from the most recent winter, three of them were fairly unique cases. One of those was the mega deal for Shohei Ohtani, who is an unprecedented talent. Two others were for 25-year-olds coming over from Asia: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The fourth was for Aaron Nola. The rest of the market was modest, with solid regulars like Amed Rosario, Jurickson Profar, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor and others getting $4MM or less. It would appear that Montgomery believes Boras could have handled that environment better while Snell simply views it as something that was beyond his control.

In addition to their differing opinions about the past, both players now appear to have divergent future. Montgomery has struggled badly with the Snakes this year and was recently moved to the bullpen. As of today, he has a 6.44 earned run average through 95 innings and 19 starts. Unless he turns things around dramatically in the coming weeks, it would appear his best course of action is to take his player option and hope for better results in 2025. By making at least 18 starts this year, he has unlocked that option and raised the value to $22.5MM.

Snell, on the other hand, has been on fire after a slow start. By the end of June, he had two stints on the injured list, six starts and a 9.51 ERA. But he came off the IL in early July and has posted a 1.30 ERA in his nine most recent starts, including a no-hitter against the Reds earlier in August. The lefty signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end. He could trigger a $30MM player option for 2025 but could also walk away with $32MM banked and then take another shot at free agency.

If he keeps putting up good numbers for the next few weeks, it’s highly likely that another trip to the open market is in the cards. Speaking of the rest of the season, Snell says that “I’ll enjoy those starts and make the most of them and we’ll figure out what happens after that later,” before adding that he has high confidence in Boras to handle whatever comes next. “Of course,” Snell said. “High confidence. Really high.”

Boras tends to be a polarizing figure in baseball circles, so the struggles of the “Boras Four” led to a lot of schadenfreude and declarations that he was “washed” or over the hill. However, Boras is well set up to be a key player in free agency again this winter. Snell, Chapman and Bellinger will all have chances to return to the open market, while Boras also represents big-name players slated for free agency this winter such as Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill, J.D. Martinez and many others. What those players will be entering another frosty market or not remains to be seen.

Lovullo said he informed Montgomery of the decision today. Righty Ryne Nelson has outpitched Montgomery in recent weeks, earning the fifth starter job in the process. Nelson, who is on the mound tonight at Fenway Park, carried an ERA approaching 5.00 into the All-Star Break. He has completely flipped the script over the past month, turning in a 2.89 mark while striking out 29% of opposing hitters in 37 1/3 frames. Nelson remains behind Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in the starting five.

On the other hand, Montgomery has struggled for essentially the entire season. He owns a 6.44 ERA with a well below-average 15.5% strikeout rate over 19 starts. Montgomery got a late start to the year after not signing until Opening Day. Unlike Blake Snell, who had an atrocious start as a late signee before recapturing his Cy Young form, Montgomery has not found any success as the year has gone on. He’s allowing 6.44 earned runs per nine in both the first and second half. Opponents are hitting over .300 while slugging north of .500.

Montgomery has averaged around 92 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. Both pitches sat above 93 a year ago. Aside from a decent 11.9% swinging strike rate that is in line with his career average, there’s little in this year’s statistical profile that offers much hope for a turnaround. Montgomery had an excellent track record coming into this season, but the D-Backs have five starters who are performing better as they battle for a playoff spot. They’re four games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and hold a five-game edge on a Wild Card berth.

This will be Montgomery’s first bullpen work in his career. He has started 159 of his 160 MLB games. The relief appearance was in September 2019 when he’d returned from Tommy John surgery without the benefit of a lengthy minor league rehab assignment. He’ll presumably work as a multi-inning reliever. If the D-Backs make the playoffs, Lovullo and his staff might have a difficult decision on whether to carry him on the postseason roster at all.

That’d have been hard to fathom just a few months ago. Arizona signed Montgomery as an expected high-floor rotation pickup when Rodriguez suffered a lat strain in camp. He’s playing on a $25MM salary. He started 10 games and unlocked an accompanying $20MM player option for next year. That escalated to $22.5MM when he made his 18th start; he’d have pushed it to $25MM if he reached 23 starts, though that no longer seems likely. In any case, he’ll almost certainly exercise the option rather than returning to free agency next winter.

Arizona GM Mike Hazen said on July 1 that he was hoping his club would be in a position to add rather than subtract at the trade deadline, and the Diamondbacks’ strong play in the last three weeks has paid off their general manager’s belief.  With the D’Backs now more firmly looking like contenders, Hazen told reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) yesterday that “as of now, the calls we’re making, we’re looking to add talent to the team.”

Where exactly the D’Backs might focus their shopping has yet to be determined, as Hazen said he would “love to be able to target down the needs to bullpen, position-player fit somewhere, and just go with that.”  A more limited list of needs would hinge, of course, on how healthy the rotation is looking by the July 30 deadline, as Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Merrill Kelly all remain on the injured list.

Montgomery is the closest to returning, as he threw 56 pitches over three innings of a simulated game on Thursday.  This lines the southpaw up to be activated from the 15-day injured list during Arizona’s series in Kansas City that begins on Monday, though manager Torey Lovullo didn’t officially state this was the team’s plan.  Montgomery hasn’t pitched since June 27 due to right knee inflammation, and is looking to return from this IL stint and turn around a rough season, as the lefty has a 6.44 ERA in his first 65 2/3 innings and 13 starts in a D’Backs uniform.

Rodriguez and Kelly are both tentatively set to return at some point in August, and both hurlers are set for bullpen sessions today.  Hazen said “everything has been good” with the duo as of late, and they could advance to facing hitters after both Saturday’s bullpen and then another throwing session next week.

Assuming Montgomery is indeed back for the Royals series, he’d rejoin a D’Backs rotation that also features ace Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and rookie Yilber Diaz.  Nelson has pitched increasingly well as the season has gone on and Diaz has looked sharp in his first two career MLB starts, and thus Arizona might go from a lack of rotation depth to perhaps a surplus later in the season if everyone comes back healthy and effective.  These are the decisions Hazen must weigh as the deadline approaches, since on paper, trading for another starter seems like a logical hedge against the uncertainty that the Diamondbacks still face with their starter mix.

“Long-term starting pitching is still going to be something I’m going to explore no matter what if it’s multiple years of control because I feel like we have to,” Hazen said.  “We always have to look out for our rotation a couple of years down the line.  I think if I feel very confident when Monty comes back and then [Kelly and Rodriguez] are right around the corner, I probably would not place as much emphasis on it.  But I don’t know.  It obviously depends on if Nelly and Yilber keep throwing the ball really well, that’s going to impact how this goes.”

Hazen also announced that the D’Backs would be moving Slade Cecconi into a bullpen role for the rest of the season, which is probably less a sign of Arizona’s confidence in its forthcoming rotation depth than it is a reflection of Cecconi’s unimpressive results as a starter.  Cecconi has started 13 of his 14 Major League games this season, posting a 6.14 ERA over 66 innings.

It isn’t necessarily surprising that a rookie is having a tough time in his first extended look against big league hitters, and if nothing else, Cecconi has eaten some innings for a D’Backs team that was often scrambling to fill rotation holes.  His new role will also be about covering innings in some sense, as Hazen said that if Cecconi is recalled from Triple-A, the right-hander will work in a long man role to help give the bullpen some respite.

Montgomery has had a nightmarish season. The veteran southpaw agreed to terms on a $25MM pillow contract just before Opening Day. As with fellow late signee Blake Snell, he has had significant struggles with that abbreviated ramp-up. Montgomery agreed to head to Reno for a few starts as a tune-up. He was recalled in mid-April but hasn’t found anything close to his typical form.

Over 13 starts, Montgomery carries a 6.03 ERA in 65 2/3 innings. He’s striking out a well below-average 15.1% of opposing hitters. Montgomery had punched out more than 21% of batters faced in each of the previous three seasons. He allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each year while combining for a 3.48 ERA over 94 starts. The average velocity on his sinker is down from its customary 93 MPH range to 91.7 MPH.

It’s impossible to know how much of Montgomery’s struggles are attributable to the unconventional start to the season. It seems fair to presume that has played some role. Whatever the primary cause, Montgomery hasn’t provided anything close to the kind of production Arizona envisioned. The D-Backs hoped he’d step in as a mid-rotation replacement after Eduardo Rodriguez suffered a Spring Training lat strain. Instead, he’s been arguably the weakest point in a starting staff that remains the team’s biggest question mark.

Arizona recently welcomed Zac Gallen back from the injured list. They’re still without Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly. Righty Brandon Pfaadt has been solid, but the D-Backs haven’t gotten much out of Slade Cecconi and Ryne Nelson. They’ll need to find a fifth starter this week, as Arizona doesn’t have another off day until the All-Star Break. That might be righty Cristian Mena. Alex Weiner of AZ Sports tweets that Mena is with the big league club in Los Angeles, though he’s not yet on the roster. Acquired from the White Sox for Dominic Fletcher over the winter, the 21-year-old Mena has a 4.90 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate in 16 Triple-A starts. Joe Mantiply will kick off a bullpen game tonight; Montgomery had been slated to start tomorrow’s contest.

On the position player side, Moreno and Thomas draw back into the lineup. The former had a minimal IL stay with a thumb sprain. He’ll return to his role as the primary catcher. Barnhart’s DFA means the D-Backs will stick with José Herrera in the #2 catching role. Thomas has missed the bulk of the season because of a hamstring strain. He played in only four games before going down. That pushed Corbin Carroll into center field. Carroll should move back to right field, which could cut into the playing time for Jake McCarthy and Randal Grichuk.

It pushes Alexander off the MLB roster for the time being. The 25-year-old logged a good chunk of playing time at shortstop while Geraldo Perdomo was on the shelf. Upon Perdomo’s return, manager Torey Lovullo suggested he’d get Alexander more playing time at third base while cutting into Eugenio Suárez’s workload. Alexander got regular run for about two weeks but fell into a slump, hitting .138 without an extra-base knock in 33 plate appearances. Suárez has started five of the past six games at the hot corner. With Kevin Newman playing reasonably well as a utility option who cannot be optioned, the D-Backs send Alexander back to Reno for more consistent playing time.

Montgomery had a disappointing first trip through free agency last winter. While he reportedly set out in search of a deal approaching or exceeding the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola received from the Phillies, that didn’t materialize. Montgomery lingered on the market longer than any other top free agent before agreeing to terms with the Diamondbacks just before Opening Day. He signed a one-year guarantee with a $25MM salary and the conditional player option.

That triggers at $20MM with his tenth start. Its value would escalate to $22.5MM at 18 starts and max out at $25MM if he starts 23 games. Montgomery wasn’t equipped to make his team debut until April 19. He needed a couple Triple-A appearances to build his workload after sitting out during Spring Training. He’ll still have plenty of time to get to 23 starts and maximize the option value if he stays healthy.

At signing, the conditional player option looked more like injury protection than anything else. Montgomery certainly anticipated declining it and heading back to free agency in search of the long-term deal that eluded him last offseason. Yet his early-season performance hasn’t positioned him well for a return trip to the market.

After tossing 5 2/3 innings of three-run ball tonight, Montomgery carries a 6.58 earned run average across 52 innings. He has punched out just 13.7% of batters faced — easily the lowest rate of his career and nearly eight percentage points below last season’s 21.4% mark. His 8.2% walk rate is a couple points above its typical level. Montgomery entered tonight’s outing averaging roughly 92 MPH on both his sinker and four-seam fastball. Each pitch sat north of 93 MPH last year.

It’s difficult to say how much of that drop-off is attributable to Montgomery’s late signing and atypical preparation for the season. Perhaps he’ll find the extra tick of velocity and more closely resemble his old self as the year progresses. Before his stint in the desert, Montgomery had been the picture of consistency. He reached the 30-start threshold in each season between 2021-23. The southpaw allowed between three and four earned runs per nine with solid strikeout and walk rates in all three years.

Signing Montgomery punctuated an aggressive offseason for an Arizona team looking to build off its Cinderella pennant run. The Snakes had already brought back Lourdes Gurriel Jr., acquired Eugenio Suárez and landed Eduardo Rodriguez on a four-year deal to stabilize the rotation. None of those transactions is off to an auspicious start. Gurriel is hitting at a league average level. Montgomery has struggled. Suárez has hit poorly enough that the Snakes are reportedly considering alternatives at third base and could try to offload some of his $12MM salary. Rodriguez suffered a lat strain during Spring Training and has been on the injured list all season.

That has contributed to a disappointing 31-35 start that has Arizona sitting in fourth place in the NL West. The prevailing mediocrity beyond the top four teams in the National League nevertheless provides hope for everyone other than the Rockies and Marlins. The final two Wild Card spots are currently held by teams at or below .500. Despite being four games under, the Snakes are one game out of the postseason picture.

Along with Rodriguez’s absence, the D-Backs have been without Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the past few weeks. Montgomery is the most established member of a rotation that also includes Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi at the moment. Gallen and Kelly have begun throwing programs.

Since Montgomery opened the season on an assignment to Triple-A, he will not be eligible for a qualifying offer if he hits free agency next winter. His slow start and the player option would complicate any efforts to trade him if Arizona falls out of the playoff race. The D-Backs have roughly $64MM in guaranteed commitments for next season, as calculated by RosterResource.

Montgomery’s option could push that into the $84-89MM range depending on how many starts he makes. The D-Backs will almost certainly exercise a $7MM option to retain Kelly and would owe Gallen a raise on this year’s $10.011MM salary for his final year of arbitration. Christian Walker, Joc Pederson and Paul Sewald are their top impending free agents. Montgomery could still join them, but it’d take a better second half than he has managed thus far. If he does retest the market, he’ll be doing so with new representation. Montgomery switched from the Boras Corporation to Wasserman in April.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

• Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

• Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

• Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

• Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

• Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

• Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

• Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

• Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

• Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

• Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

• Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

• Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

• Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

• Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

• Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

• Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

• Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

• Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

• Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

• Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Montgomery will take the ball opposite Blake Snell in the second game of their intra-division series. The southpaw officially signed with the D-Backs on Opening Day but agreed to an optional assignment to build into game shape. He started twice for Reno, allowing nine runs in 7 2/3 innings. While that’s clearly not the most impressive showing, his primary focus was building his workload. He threw 71 pitches in his start last Saturday. Montgomery’s contract stipulated that he’d be back in the majors no later than April 19, so the Snakes bring him up after a pair of rehab outings.

He joins Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the top half of the rotation. The D-Backs envisioned Eduardo Rodriguez holding a mid-rotation spot, but he’ll be out until at least late May because of shoulder issues. Brandon Pfaadt and Tommy Henry round out the starting five for now, as Montgomery steps into the spot which Nelson had been holding.

Nelson has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his first 15 2/3 innings. The Oregon product has picked up 13 strikeouts and walked five. It was a slightly improved start relative to last season, when he pitched to a 5.31 ERA with a below-average 15.5% strikeout rate over 144 innings. A comebacker off the bat of Mike Yastrzemski got him in the throwing elbow last night, forcing him out of the game after two innings. It’ll cost him at least two weeks of action.

Arizona also makes a move on the position player side, almost certainly bringing an end to Peterson’s time in the desert. The D-Backs acquired him from the A’s in a deadline deal last summer. The versatile infielder was hitting .221/.313/.324 at the time. His bat slumped further after the trade, as he hit .183/.276/.258 without a home run in 41 games. Peterson didn’t play much of a role in the team’s pennant run and has gotten off to a very slow start in 2024.

The 33-year-old has collected just one hit, a single, in his first 22 at-bats. Since the D-Backs acquired him, Peterson owns a .157/.252/.217 slash line over 132 plate appearances. His recent production is a notable drop-off from the .243/.332/.376 mark which he managed for the Brewers between 2021-22.

That solid run in Milwaukee secured Peterson a two-year, $9.5MM free agent deal from Oakland. He’s making $5MM this year. The A’s agreed to pay $2MM as part of the trade, leaving the D-Backs on the hook for the remaining $3MM. That salary makes it a virtual lock he’ll go unclaimed on waivers. Peterson has more than enough service time to decline an outright assignment while retaining his entire salary, so the Snakes could simply release him within the next week. If he hits free agency, any team that signs him would pay him at the prorated $740K league minimum for whatever time he spends in the majors.

The season is underway, which makes this a good time to look ahead to next winter with the first installment of the 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings! It’s an annual series here at MLBTR, wherein we try to rank the upcoming class of free agents by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season. Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but two to three weeks into the season, it’s not a huge factor. By the end time the season draws to a close, however, 2024 results will weigh heavily into the rankings. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with colleagues Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald as well as MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes for the first installment of this year’s rankings. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

Statistics are up-to-date through April 12.

* denotes players who are ineligible for a qualifying offer

1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

Were it not for Shohei Ohtani reaching the open market a year sooner, Soto might have a claim to the most coveted free agent ever. Because he skyrocketed through the minor leagues and took MLB by storm beginning at age 19, Soto’s final year of arbitration eligibility comes in just his age-25 campaign. He’ll play the entirety of his first free agent season at 26 years of age. For some context, Aaron Judge — who re-signed on a nine-year, $360MM contract with the Yankees upon reaching free agency — debuted at 24 and had 773 big league plate appearances heading into his own age-26 season.

Soto is a freak of nature who was one of MLB’s best hitters at an age when most top prospects are still in college or just entering the low minors. He hit .292/.406/.517 as a teenage rookie in 2018, and his preternatural plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills and raw power have only improved since. Through more than 3400 career plate appearances, Soto has walked at a staggering 18.9% clip and struck out in just 17% of his plate appearances. He entered the current season with 160 home runs, and while he’s never had a 40-homer campaign before, a move to Yankee Stadium and its notorious short porch in right field could help him get to 200 long balls before he turns 26.

Since his 2018 debut, Soto leads qualified big leaguers with a mammoth .422 on-base percentage. Mike Trout’s .415 mark ranks second, and Freddie Freeman (.402) is the only other hitter north of .400. Soto is “only” 16th in home runs in that time, but his 154 wRC+ — which indicates he’s been 54% better than an average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment — is tied with Mookie Betts for fourth-best in baseball, trailing only Trout, Yordan Alvarez and Judge.

If there’s one wart to Soto’s game, it’s that he’s limited to the outfield corners and isn’t regarded as an especially strong defender. He’s had seasons with positive grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, but on the whole he has negative marks from both in his career — both in left field and in right field. That said, he’s also only had two truly *bad* seasons per both of those metrics, and taken in totality, he sits around -2 DRS and -4 OAA per season. Obviously, that’s not great, but it’s also not exactly egregious. And given the otherworldly contributions he makes at the plate, playing a slightly below-average left or right field is more than an even trade-off.

Soto famously rejected a 14-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals before being traded to the Padres. Rejecting an offer of that magnitude led to plenty of jaws dropping, but when considering that it included his three final arbitration seasons and 11 free agent years, it’s not as jarring as it seems at first blush. Soto wound up earning $71.1MM over those three seasons, meaning he really “only” needs to earn $370MM or so in free agency to come out ahead. There’s already talk of a potential $500MM free-agent deal for Soto. Barring a catastrophic injury, he’ll likely come out ahead in that bet on himself. He’s the clear No. 1 free agent on next year’s market and will be one of the most sought-after free agents not only in baseball history but in all of professional sports.

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Orioles

Since his 2020 breakout, Burnes ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched, eighth in strikeout rate, fourth in K-BB%, second in opponents’ batting average, fifth in ERA, second in FIP and third in SIERA. Put another way — regardless of which metric you prefer to judge pitchers, Burnes ranks in the top-eight in just about any metric. He’s a bona fide No. 1 starter — very arguably one of the five best pitchers the sport has to offer at the moment.

Detractors might point to Burnes’ 2023 numbers as the potential beginning of a decline. His 3.39 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate were all more “very good” than elite. Through three starts in Baltimore, he’s trending back in the other direction. Small sample caveats obviously apply, but Burnes has opened his first season with his new club on a tear, tossing 18 2/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate and superlative 2.9% walk rate. His velocity is as strong as ever; his devastating cutter is averaging 95.1 mph — an exact match for his career-best mark, set back in 2021 when he won the National League Cy Young Award.

Burnes won’t turn 30 until October. He’s never been on the injured list due to an arm issue. His only IL stints were due to an oblique strain and Covid. Burnes might not be quite as dominant as he was when he was striking out more than 35% of his opponents from 2020-21, but he’s a workhorse ace and former Cy Young winner who still ranks among the game’s elite arms. Gerrit Cole’s nine-year deal with the Yankees began in his age-29 season. Teams have generally been wary of committing to long-term deals for pitchers that span beyond their age-37 season (though there are exceptions, as evidenced by Jacob deGrom’s current five-year deal).

Burnes is dominant enough that he could prove to be an exception, but even if he’s limited to eight-year terms, he’ll have a chance at surpassing a $250MM guarantee. With a big enough year, nine years and/or $300MM+ could be on the table.

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

Bregman would’ve hit free agency in the 2022-23 offseason were it not for a five-year, $100MM extension he signed upon first reaching arbitration. That locked in his first — but very likely not his last — nine-figure contract and still allowed him to hit the open market at a fairly standard point, heading into his age-31 season.

There’s perhaps a perception that Bregman is declining or trending in the wrong direction, as his production has dipped from the MVP-caliber levels he displayed in 2018-19. He also doesn’t have the most appealing batted-ball profile, which we saw work to Cody Bellinger’s detriment in free agency this offseason. Bregman’s 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 38.2% hard-hit rate in 2023 were both pretty pedestrian marks.

One key difference between Bregman and Bellinger, however, is that Bregman has never had gaudy Statcast numbers — even when he was putting up the type of numbers that led to consecutive All-Star nods and top-five MVP finishes in 2018-19. Bellinger, on the other hand, previously had top-of-the-scale exit velo and hard-hit numbers, leading to more questions about whether his resurgent 2023 showing was truly sustainable.

Bregman has always possessed sensational contact skills. He’s never fanned at higher than a 15.5% clip in a full season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick legitimately possesses one of the best hit tools in all of baseball. He couples that with elite plate discipline, too; Bregman has walked at a 12.6% clip in his career and a 13.7% rate dating back to 2018. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in four individual seasons and in the aggregate from 2018-24. His 41-homer campaign from 2019 looks like a clear outlier in what’s now known as the juiced-ball season, but Bregman still popped 48 homers from 2022-23.

Some may question how much power he can manufacture following a potential change of scenery. Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field — the Crawford Boxes — seems practically tailor-made for Bregman’s fly-ball heavy, pull-side approach. (Or, perhaps alternatively, he reworked his swing to take advantage of that quirk in his home park.)

There’s little doubting that he’s had some home runs that are Crawford Box specials over the years, but a look at Bregman’s career splits don’t paint the picture of someone who is a product of his hitter-friendly home environment. Bregman’s a career .273/.377/.473 hitter in Houston and a .275/.368/.498 hitter on the road. He’s actually hit nine more homers on the road in his career despite having only 64 more plate appearances away from Minute Maid Park than at home.

Defensively, Bregman isn’t an elite third baseman, but he’s posted average or better marks in DRS and OAA nearly every season of his career. There’s no reason to expect a position change in the near future, but if he does need to move off the hot corner at some point, a shift to second base, left field or first base seems feasible for the former shortstop. And as someone who’s been 36% better than average at the plate in his career — and 25% better dating back to 2020 — he has more than enough bat to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond.

A seven- or eight-year deal seems plausible in free agency, and there’s always the chance that a luxury-paying team will gauge his interest in a longer-term deal with a non-premium AAV in order to tamp down the CBT hit. A deal north of $200MM seems plausible for Bregman. The Astros have said at multiple points in the past they’ll make an extension offer at some point, but there haven’t been serious talks on that front yet and Bregman can justifiably seek the type of long-term pact that owner Jim Crane has completely avoided over the years.

4. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The Polar Bear is raw personified, bashing 40-plus homers on the regular since his 2019 debut. Alonso has not only established himself as one of baseball’s premier sluggers — he’s done so while maintaining a strikeout rate that’s lower than the league average. At a time when many prodigious sluggers are comfortable selling out for power, Alonso has the type of easy, plus-plus power that doesn’t require him to do so. He’s fanned in just 20.7% of his plate appearances dating back to 2021 and popped the fifth-most long balls in baseball along the way. He trails only Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani in that span. All four of those sluggers have whiffed at higher rates than Alonso.

Alonso’s extreme fly-ball approach does lead to a glut of pop-ups and some low BABIPs — though last year’s bottom-of-the-barrel .205 average on balls in play (and .217 average overall) were likely outliers. He’s a career .250 hitter who walks at around a 10% clip — enough to boost his OBP into the .340 range most seasons. Paired with his prodigious power, that’s plenty to make Alonso one of the most feared hitters in the National League.

After debuting as a 24-year-old back in 2019, Alonso is on pace to hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. He’s not unusually young like Soto but is reaching free agency at the same point that’s seen plenty of sluggers get paid. He’ll be two years younger than Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were when signing their current contracts (Freeman’s in free agency, Goldschmidt’s as an extension). That pair of contracts pays those star first basemen $26-27MM annually.

Alonso isn’t as good a pure hitter as either Freeman or Goldschmidt, nor is he the same defensively. He’s consistently graded out as a sub-par defender, per OAA, and a roughly average first baseman by measure of DRS. But Alonso is younger, has more power than either of those two former MVPs, and has the benefit of Mets owner Steve Cohen likely being extra-motivated to keep his franchise slugger. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Alonso follow a similar path to Judge. That’s not to say he’ll sign a $360MM deal — he won’t — but he could reject a qualifying offer, explore what the market has to offer, and then take the top offer back to the Mets and effectively ask that they match it.

A six-year deal would run through Alonso’s age-35 season. Seven years would take him through age-36. Either of those terms feels plausible, as does an AAV in the vicinity of — or even slightly in excess of — the Freeman and Goldschmidt deals.

5. Blake Snell, LHP, Giants*

Will the second time prove to be a charm for Snell? The $200MM+ contract he sought in free agency this past winter never materialized, likely due to a confluence of factors. Beyond the sheer scope of his ask, Snell hit free agency at a time when roughly half the league was experiencing uncertainty regarding its long-term television status. We’re also slated for a record number of CBT payors, including several big spenders — Yankees, Dodgers, Mets — currently paying a 110% tax that made a long-term deal for Snell wholly unpalatable. Further yet, recent high-profile spenders like the Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mets all took steps back in terms of their aggression.

None of that even touches on Snell’s command troubles, though his penchant for issuing free passes hasn’t stopped him from dominating opposing lineups over the past several seasons. Snell is now a two-time Cy Young winner — one of just 22 in MLB history — who’ll spend the 2024 season pitching in an even more spacious home park than he enjoyed in San Diego.

Snell will turn 32 in the coming offseason, so he won’t have age on his side. But he already rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, meaning he’s ineligible to receive another one at any point in his career. That lack of draft pick compensation will be a bonus, and it’s possible next offseason’s market will bear more favorable circumstances. If the Mets, Red Sox, Rangers or Padres begin spending again and if even a couple of CBT payors are suddenly in position to dip back under the threshold, Snell could find more suitors this time around.

He’s not a lock to hit the market, of course. Snell’s two-year $62MM deal with the Giants allows him to opt out at season’s end, leaving a $30MM player option on the table. So long as he remains healthy and effective, he’ll be a lock to do so. The left-hander ranks 11th in ERA (3.05) and seventh in strikeout rate (31.7%) among qualified big league starters dating back to the 2018 season. He’s had a couple rough seasons along the way, but the broader body of work is genuinely excellent.

As previously mentioned, teams are typically wary of committing beyond a starting pitcher’s age-37 season. For Snell, hitting the market at 32, that’d make it tough to secure a contract lengthier than six years. A six-year deal checking in at $28MM or more would allow Snell to still claim that he topped $200MM in free agent earnings (when combined with his current $32MM in earnings). That type of offer seemingly wasn’t there this time around, but if Snell turns in a third straight dominant season — he had a 2.72 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 2022-23 — someone’s likely going to pony up with a big offer.

6. Max Fried, LHP, Braves

Few starters in baseball have been as consistent as Fried on a year-to-year basis. The former No. 7 overall draft pick has turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons, with the lone exception being a 3.04 mark in 2021. Fried’s strikeout rate has fallen between 22.3% and 25.7% for five straight seasons. His walk rates in that time have landed between 4.4% and 8.5% (though that 8.5% came in 2020’s short season and is something of an outlier, he’s been under 7% in every other full season). His ground-ball rate sits between 51.2% and 57.7% each year.

Fried isn’t an overpowering ace in the sense that he hits triple digits with his heater and strikes out a third of his opponents. He has above-average but not elite velocity, leading to average or slightly better strikeout rates. However, Fried has plus command and ground-ball tendencies, and he dodges hard contact at consistently excellent levels.

Prior to the 2023 season, Fried was also quite durable, ranking 19th in the majors in innings pitched and 21st in games started. That doesn’t include his 10 postseason starts (and four relief outings) — a total of 58 2/3 additional innings. A forearm strain suffered in early May last year, however, knocked Fried out of action for about three months. Though he was characteristically excellent when health — 2.55 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.38 SIERA — Fried was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings.

Proving that forearm strain is behind him will be paramount to his free agent platform. Another 30-plus starts won’t completely eliminate any trepidation stemming from last year’s injury, but another season with considerable missed time — particularly due to an arm injury of any nature — would create cause for clear concern.

Fried has been more durable than Carlos Rodon (six years, $162MM with the Yankees) and has a far lengthier track record of success. He and his reps will likely take aim at toppling that mark in free agency. Braves fans would surely like to see an extension, but it hasn’t happened in the past, and Fried is plenty justified in asking for the type of long-term deal and semi-premium AAV that the Braves have steered clear of in recent years. He seems likelier to follow Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson out the door than he does to receive an extension offer that’s commensurate with his market value.

7. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs*

Bellinger didn’t get the mega-deal he sought this past offseason. Excellent as his 2023 campaign was, there were surely teams wary of his woeful 2021-22 showing on the heels of shoulder surgery. Beyond that, his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and other batted-ball metrics were decidedly pedestrian.

Agent Scott Boras has pointed to Bellinger’s massive decline in strikeout rate as a factor, painting his client as a hitter who adopted a two-strike approach more focused on putting the ball in play than on doing massive damage. There’s surely a blend of truth and garden-variety agent spin woven into that defense.

A repeat of his 2023 production — or anything close to it — would strengthen Bellinger’s case immensely. It’d further distance him from that awful 2021-22 showing, lending further credence to the notion that injuries played a significant role in his perceived decline. And whether Bellinger replicates his numbers by returning to his maximum-damage approach or simply proves that his newer brand of more well-rounded, low-strikeout offense is sustainable, either approach should prove lucrative.

Even though an opt-out would trigger Bellinger’s third trip to free agency, he’ll still be heading into just his age-29 season next year. He can still play a fine center field (or corner outfield, presumably) and remains a good option at first base as well. There’s plenty of defensive and baserunning value to supplement his bat.

Bellinger will pocket $30MM in the first season of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs, meaning he’ll be opting out from two years and $50MM. That seems likely, barring a 2021-22-esque collapse or a massive injury. Because of his age, that immense long-term deal that eluded him this past offseason still feels plausible. That he can no longer be saddled with a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last offseason — only strengthens his case.

8. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Adames joins Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson as the latest in a line of high-end shortstops to reach free agency heading into his age-29 season. That trio signed for respective guarantees of $140MM (Tigers), $140MM (Red Sox) and $177MM (Cubs). Adames doesn’t have the individual accolades that group possesses. He’s never been an All-Star like each of that trio has. He hasn’t won Gold Gloves like Swanson and Baez. He hasn’t won the Silver Sluggers that Story has.

Yet despite the lack of hardware, Adames has a strong claim to be valued in similar fashion. It’s true that he had a down year at the plate in 2023, but that was in part driven by a career-low .250 average on balls in play. Since 2020, Adames is a .240/.316/.450 hitter. He’s been 8% better than average overall, by measure of wRC+, and he peaked with a 121 wRC+ (21% better than average) from 2020-21. Adames fanned at a sky-high 36.1% back in 2020 but has reduced that mark considerably; over his past 1300 plate appearances he’s punched out at a worse-than-average but far more manageable 26.2% rate. He struggled badly against lefties early in his career (despite being a right-handed hitter) but has improved against them in recent seasons.

From 2021-23, Adames averaged 26.67 homers per season — topping out at 31 round-trippers in 2022. He’s walked at an above-average but not elite 9.4% rate in his career — including a personal-best 11.1% in 2023. Adames has long been touted as having plus defensive tools, but his execution and consistency were lackluster early on, leading to some middling grades. Over the past two seasons he’s been outstanding, tallying 17 DRS and a flat-out elite 26 OAA.

If Adames can bounce back from last year’s .217/.310/.407 line and turn in something closer to the .251/.319/.471 slash he logged from 2020-22, he’ll have an easy case to be paid comparably to Story, Baez and Swanson. He’s likely to hit the market on the heels of four straight 20-homer campaigns. He’s a plus defender. He’s relatively young. He’s not the most consistent hitter on a year-over-year basis, but that was true of Baez, Story and Swanson. They all got paid. Adames will also draw bonus points for his gregarious personality and leadership skills. Both the Rays and Brewers have lauded him in that regard, and the primary reason Tampa Bay traded him — Wander Franco’s looming emergence — now looks regrettable (even if getting Drew Rasmussen in return for him has yielded plenty of value).

9. Ha-Seong Kim, SS/2B, Padres

Kim came to MLB with great fanfare as a 25-year-old KBO superstar who’d been posted by the Kiwoom Heroes. He signed a four-year, $28MM deal with San Diego that contains a mutual option for a fifth season. Mutual options are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised by both parties. In Kim’s instance, it’s a no-brainer to decline his end of the option and hit free agency in search of a deal that could pay him three to four times his original MLB guarantee.

While Kim’s rookie season didn’t live up to the hype, he’s since acclimated to MLB quite nicely. Now 28, he posted a .256/.338/.391 batting line (109 wRC+) from 2022-23. His power has increased in each MLB season, resulting in a career-high 17 homers last year, and he swiped a hefty 38 bases in 47 tries for the Friars last season. Kim’s walk rate has climbed every MLB season as well, topping out at a robust 12% in 2023, and after fanning in 23.8% of his plate appearances as a rookie he’s dropped that mark to 18.5% in 2022-23.

Decent power, strong on-base skills and plus speed give Kim plenty of appeal, but his glove is perhaps his greatest selling point. Kim is an elite defensive infielder capable of handling any of second base, shortstop or third base. He won his first Gold Glove for his play at second base last season, though that’s unlikely to be his last. (He also won a Gold Glove in his final three seasons of KBO play.)

There’s no defensive metric that pegs Kim below average at any of those three positions. He’s logged more than 1000 innings at second base, nearly 600 at third base and more than 1600 at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating agree that he’s excellent at all three. The Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract and moved him to second base just one year later despite Bogaerts posting decent numbers at short in 2023. Kim has racked up 23 DRS and 10 OAA in his 1600+ innings at shortstop. He has fluid infield actions, sure hands and is a regular source of highlight-reel defense.

Kim doesn’t have a strong batted-ball profile, but it’s not out of the question that he could crack 20 homers, walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances, swipe 40 bags and play Gold Glove defense this season. He’ll play all of the 2025 season at 29 years old. A nine-figure contract isn’t out of the question.

10. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Diamondbacks

As the old adage goes, if at first you don’t succeed — hire a new agent and try again. Montgomery languished in free agency all winter, never landing the six- or seven-year contract he was seeking. He took a one-year, $25MM deal with the D-backs that’ll afford him a player option at $20-25MM basically just for staying healthy. The contract wasn’t finalized before Opening Day, meaning Montgomery can’t receive a qualifying offer this winter. Barring a major injury, he’ll likely decline that player option and return to the market.

Montgomery, 31, has made at least 30 starts in each of the past three seasons. In that time, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 6.2% walk rate, a 44.5% ground-ball rate and just 1.00 HR/9. His 2023 campaign was the finest of his career, featuring a personal-best 188 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, plus another 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball in the postseason — a strong performance that helped push the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title.

Though he doesn’t miss bats at an elite level, Montgomery is better than average in just about every meaningful category for starting pitchers and has been a workhorse since his 2020 return from Tommy John surgery. We at MLBTR erred in thinking a six-year deal was attainable heading into the 2023-24 offseason. Another typical Montgomery season could put him in position for a strong four-year or perhaps a five-year deal at a lighter AAV than we predicted last offseason. He should be able to top teammate Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM contract — and a deal in the $100-110MM range over five years doesn’t feel out of reach if Monty continues at his recent trajectory.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Walker Buehler, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole^, Jack Flaherty, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Frankie Montas, Tyler O’Neill, Luis Severino, Max Scherzer*, Gleyber Torres, Justin Verlander*, Christian Walker

^=Cole is currently on the 60-day IL and expected to be out into June. He can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole is currently injured and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on the initial version of our rankings. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future installments of the list.