11:40am: The White Sox have granted Joey Gallo his unconditional release, as relayed by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. Gallo had been in camp with the club on a minor league deal but will now head back into free agency to try and land a job with another club before Opening Day.
Gallo, 31, is coming off a difficult season with the Nationals where he hit just .161/.277/.336 (76 wRC+) in 260 trips to the plate. It’s the latest chapter in what’s been a very up-and-down career for the slugger, who was a first-round pick by the Rangers in 2012 and was a two-time All-Star across his seven years in Dallas, in 2019 and 2021. In that three season stretch, Gallo hit .209/.351/.477 with a wRC+ of 121. He crushed 70 home runs in just 280 games over those three years, but also struck out at a massive 35.6% clip.
That combination of nearly unmatched power and deep strikeout woes has contributed to a roller-coaster career where Gallo has been at times among the most impactful hitters in the sport and at times well below average. All of that has averaged out to a relatively middling .194/.319/.456 (107 wRC+) line across ten seasons in the majors, and while that’s still decent production overall Gallo hasn’t quite lived up to even that line in recent years. Despite a decent 103 wRC+ with the Twins in 2023, Gallo’s overall slash line over the past three years is just .166/.286/.379 with a well-below average wRC+ of 88. He’s struck out more than 40% of the time during that stretch, and his most productive season in Minnesota actually saw him punch out in a massive 42.8% of his trips to the plate.
Earlier in his career, Gallo helped to make up for his uneven offensive production with strong outfield defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner in right field during his days with the Rangers who could even be counted on in center if necessary, Gallo’s fallen from grace defensively and now fits best as a roughly average defensive first baseman. Unfortunately, Gallo’s more limited defensive profile in recent years makes him a more difficult fit for a contending club in a bench role, while his offensive peaks and valleys make him difficult to bet on as a full-time starter.
Those concerns all culminated in the White Sox deciding to part ways with the slugger. While getting released by a club that lost the most games in MLB history last year is an ominous sign, it’s worth pointing out that Chicago actually has a relatively deep group of potential options at first base and in the outfield. Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert Jr. figure to be everyday players at first base and in center field, while Mike Tauchman and Andrew Benintendi figure to capture the lion’s share of the playing time in the outfield corners.
Tauchman, Benintendi, and Gallo are all left-handed bats, so Gallo’s best opportunity for playing time in Chicago would’ve likely been spelling Vaughn at first base with Michael A. Taylor and Austin Slater both better suited for outfield roles. While Benintendi is out due to a hand fracture at the moment, he has yet to be explicitly ruled out for Opening Day and may be able to return fairly early in the season, making carrying a player like Gallo as a fill-in option less sensible.
Even so, however, it could be difficult for Gallo to find a major league gig with less than two weeks until the season begins. As much as injuries have opened up holes in various clubs’ lineups and rotations throughout the spring, there aren’t many obvious vacancies at first base around the league at the moment. Perhaps a club like the Padres, Pirates, or Marlins could use some additional depth at the position, but even those clubs have internal options they appear to be mostly comfortable with headed into Opening Day. With that said, teams certainly value depth and it’s not hard to imagine Gallo catching on with another club who has a less crowded first base and outfield mix on a fresh minor league deal, even if it doesn’t come with an immediate path to big league playing time.
]]>Gallo is looking to rebound from the worst season of his career. The two-time All-Star inked a $5MM free agent deal with the Nationals last January. He appeared in 76 games and hit .161/.277/.336 with 10 homers across 260 plate appearances. Gallo struck out in 39.2% of his plate appearances, the second-highest rate among hitters with 200+ trips to the dish. While the whiffs are nothing new, that came with a personal-low 12.3% walk rate and slugging percentage.
It was the third straight season in which Gallo has had a tough time offensively. His bat has dropped sharply since the Yankees acquired him from the Rangers in a big deadline trade in 2021. Gallo had hit .211/.336/.497 over parts of seven seasons in Texas. Since leaving Arlington, he owns a .165/.289/.384 slash in more than 1200 trips to the plate between four teams.
Gallo won consecutive Gold Gloves in the outfield in 2020-21. His sprint speed and defensive grades have dropped since then, though he’s still capable of playing right field. Washington used him mostly at first base last season. He logged nearly 500 innings there while starting just seven games in the outfield.
Chicago is likely to give Andrew Vaughn another chance to take a step forward at first base. Right field is wide open. Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater are probably lined up for a platoon there. Gallo, Dominic Fletcher and former highly-regarded prospect Oscar Colás could compete for reps in camp.
]]>The rebuilding Nats have made a habit of signing veterans to short-term deals and then looking to flip them at the trade deadline, though multiple injuries and Gallo’s overall struggles scuttled any trade value. Gallo hit only .161/.277/.336 with 10 home runs over 260 plate appearances, translating to a 76 wRC+ and a below-replacement value of -0.2 fWAR.
Gallo’s 12.3% walk rate and 13.1% barrel rate were still solid in comparison to the rest of the league, if well below his career averages (14.6BB%, 19.6% barrel rate). His 39.2% strikeout rate was slightly higher than his career average, yet the third aspect of Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach failed him greatly. Gallo’s .175 Isolated Power number was his lowest in any full season.
On the health front, Gallo missed about three weeks due to an AC sprain in his left shoulder, and then over two months due to a hamstring strain. It might be fair to chalk up Gallo’s shaky production to these injuries, though his overall performance has been very up-and-down over the last five seasons, evening out to almost a perfectly average 99 wRC+ in his last 1844 plate appearances.
This inconsistency has led to Gallo playing for five different teams in the last four years, going from the Rangers to the Yankees to the Dodgers in trades, and then to free agent deals with the Twins and Nationals. He might have to settle for a minor league contract in the wake of his rough 2024 campaign, though Gallo should still draw some attention based on his past track record. Gallo is a veteran of 10 MLB seasons but is still only just a few weeks away from his 31st birthday.
Gallo primarily served as the left-handed side of the Nationals’ first base platoon, with a few appearances in both corner outfield slots and at DH. It was no surprise that Washington would be passing on Gallo’s mutual option, as it is widely assume that the Nats will be looking for a big upgrade at first base this winter. This could manifest itself as a full-time regular, or perhaps another left-handed bat to split time with Juan Yepez.
]]>The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.
The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.
Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.
Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.
Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.
Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.
That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.
If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.
Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.
That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.
Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.
Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.
Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.
One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.
]]>Philadelphia’s outstanding 47-22 record also provides a bit more breathing room, as the Phillies have the National League’s best record and look like a lock to return to the playoffs. Dombrowski naturally expected his team to be good, but admitted that a .681 win percentage even exceeded his expectations, especially considering that the Phils have been without Trea Turner for the majority of the season. Turner’s impending return is an upgrade on its own, and in terms of other possible trade deadline additions, Dombrowski said it’s “way, way, way, way, way too early” to start accessing how the market might take shape. Dombrowski cited bullpen depth as one possible area to explore, and doesn’t seem to think the Phillies will pursue a “we’re going to trade three top prospects” type of blockbuster trade. The PBO is also cognizant of how adding and subtracting from the roster might impact team chemistry, as obviously Dombrowski doesn’t want to disrupt what has been a winning formula for the Phillies to date.
More from around the NL East…
- The Nationals placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day IL earlier this week, and manager Davey Martinez provided reporters (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post) yesterday with some unfortunate context, as Gallo’s left hamstring strain is “significant.” No more specifics were given about the severity of the strain or how long exactly the Nats expect Gallo to be sidelined, yet it would seem unlikely that he would be back in action before the All-Star break. Gallo already missed three weeks earlier this season recovering from an AC joint sprain his left shoulder, and this latest injury compounds what has been a miserable 2024 campaign for the veteran. After signing a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with Washington this past winter, Gallo has hit only .164/.285/.321 over 165 plate appearances, and striking out 71 times.
- A.J. Minter is likely to throw a bullpen session soon, Braves manager Brian Snitker told MLB.com and other media, as the left-hander continues to recover from inflammation in his left hip. It would appear that Minter is just about on track with the one-month timeline initially projected for his recovery, as he has started throwing side sessions to warm up his arm. A longtime staple of the Atlanta bullpen, Minter had a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings this season before hitting the IL.
Gallo signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal over the offseason, and has worked mostly as Washington’s everyday first baseman with a few appearances as a corner outfielder and DH. Gallo had seen more work in the outfield since Lane Thomas went to the 10-day IL earlier this week, but with Gallo, Thomas, and Victor Robles all now out of action, Call figures to get a good chunk of playing time in the interim.
No matter Gallo’s position, the offensive production hasn’t been there. The veteran has struggled to a .122/.286/.311 slash line over 91 plate appearances, with three homers and a Major League-leading 43 strikeouts. This 47.3% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s career standards, and while his 16.5% walk rate is very strong, Gallo simply isn’t making enough contact. The rebuilding Nationals were hoping Gallo would hit well enough to be a trade chip at the deadline, yet for now, Gallo will first have to focus just on getting healthy before he can look to turn things around at the plate.
]]>Pineda was a member of the Nationals’ 2016 international signing class, and he has spent his entire career in the organization. Still only 23 years old, Pineda has hit .231/.291/.374 over 1529 plate appearances in the minor leagues, though he hit quite well at Double-A in 2022 and earned his first MLB call-up that September when Keibert Ruiz went on the injured list.
After appearing in his first four big league games, Pineda didn’t make it back to the Show in 2023 due in large part to injuries. A fractured ring finger and an oblique strain limited Pineda to just 41 total games, and he had only a .496 OPS over 153 PA split over three minor league levels. This rough year made Pineda expendable on Washington’s 40-man, though there might be a chance he simply clears waivers and remains in the minors as a depth option.
Ruiz and Riley Adams have the catching situation covered at the MLB level for the Nats, leaving Drew Millas (with 11 games) as the only other backstop in the organization with any Major League experience. If Pineda isn’t brought back, the Nationals figure to be in the market for some veteran depth to bring into Spring Training on a minors deal.
]]>JANUARY 23: The Nationals and first baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo have agreed to a one-year deal, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post (X links). The deal for the Boras Corporation client, which is pending a physical, is for $5MM with another $1MM available in performance bonuses.
Gallo, 30, has been the poster boy for the “three true outcomes” in a major league career that’s almost a decade old at this point. Having debuted with the Rangers in 2015, he has played in 863 games, with 198 home runs to his name in that time. He has struck out in 37.9% of his plate appearances, which is much higher than par. For reference, the league average in 2023 was 22.7%. But he’s also drawn walks in 14.8% of his career plate appearances, well beyond the 2023 league average of 8.6%.
It’s an unusual combination but one that still allows Gallo to be a productive offensive contributor when taken all together. Though his career batting line .197/.323/.466 has him below the Mendoza line, the walks and the homers still help him translate that into a wRC+ of 109. He signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins for 2023 and batted .197/.323/.466 for a wRC+ of 104, hitting 21 home runs while striking out in 42.8% of his plate appearances.
It’s perhaps worth highlighting that the tenability of this oddly-shaped performance has declined over the years. Gallo had his best run with the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, slashing .217/.336/.533 in that time for a wRC+ of 120. He hit a rough patch in 2020 but then bounced back with a strong showing early in 2021, enough for him to be traded to the Yankees alongside Joely Rodríguez. But Gallo’s production fell off again after the deal and didn’t rebound in 2022, with the Yanks flipping him to the Dodgers midseason. He finished that season with a line of .160/.280/.357 and wRC+ of 86 before putting together a decent campaign with the Twins last year.
Despite the huge pop in his bat, the up-and-down nature of his past few seasons would make him a risky bet for a contending club. But for the Nationals, it’s a sensible fit for a number of reasons. Last month, it was reported that the club was looking to add some left-handed power to its lineup. That was a logical target with their outfield mix consisting of Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Joey Meneses, Victor Robles, Jacob Young and Alex Call, all of whom hit from the right side.
Beyond that, the club isn’t likely to be in contention this year, having been aggressively rebuilding in recent seasons. Last offseason, they gave modest one-year deals to bounceback candidates like Corey Dickerson, Dominic Smith and Jeimer Candelario. The first two of those didn’t work out but Candelario played well enough to be flipped to the Cubs for a couple of prospects.
The Nats can insert Gallo into the middle of their lineup and hope that he is producing enough to follow a similar trajectory to Candelario last year. If he is having another rough campaign like he did in 2022, he can simply be released like Dickerson was.
The fit also makes sense with the prospects in the system. Outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews are two of the most highly-rated prospects in the league, and each could plausibly be nearing a major league debut. Wood spent most of last year in Double-A and will likely begin the upcoming season in Triple-A. Crews was just drafted last summer but managed to join Wood in Double-A by the end of the year. Robert Hassell isn’t as highly rated as those two but is another notable outfield prospect who finished last year at Double-A.
With those prospects potentially pushing for major league at-bats by the summer, Gallo can be seen as a placeholder. If he is mashing, he can be traded for prospects. If not, he can be released. In either case, he would yield second half playing time to someone in that group. If each of the prospects are struggling and aren’t justifying a promotion, perhaps Gallo could stay in Washington through the end of the year, as Smith did in 2023.
Gallo is also considered a solid defender, which is a plus. His outfield glovework has led to career tallies of 42 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a grade of 15.0 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His work at first base isn’t graded as strongly, but he’s passable there as well, with over 1,000 career innings at that spot. Meneses is currently slated to get the bulk of the playing time at first base but the club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter, giving them some ability to rotate players around based on health and matchups.
]]>With all of $4.25MM in free agent spending committed to Floro and Senzel, there should still be financial room at Rizzo’s disposal. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll hand out any kind of significant deal, particularly with a lack of great options in the middle tiers of free agency. Yet it’d be a surprise if the Nationals were finished with their offseason activity. One area where some kind of addition seems likely: a left-handed bat.
Both the Talk Nats blog and MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato suggested in late December that Washington was looking to bring in left-handed power. The Nats’ best lefty or switch-hitting bats — CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García and Jake Alu — all have middling pop. Only the Guardians had a lower ISO (slugging minus batting average) against right-handed pitching in 2023. Acquiring a lefty power source makes plenty of sense.
It’s hard to see Washington spending at the level it’d take to land Cody Bellinger. Even though he’s young enough to be a veteran cornerstone for a team that could more realistically seek to compete by 2025, the Nationals have a pair of top center field prospects in James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’re also still faced with the MASN rights uncertainty and on the hook for significant money to Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer’s deferrals in the short term. It’s probably not the right time for a top-of-the-market splash.
We’ll look a few tiers down. Where might that search lead Rizzo and company?
Free Agency
- Brandon Belt: Belt, even going into his age-36 season, should command the loftiest guarantee of the players in this group. He’s coming off a very strong offensive showing for the Blue Jays. He hit 19 homers and walked more than 15% of the time he stepped to the plate, leading to a .254/.369/.490 line through 404 plate appearances. Favorable matchups played a role in that strong rate production; Toronto limited him to 39 PA’s against left-handed pitching. Washington could deploy him similarly at designated hitter and/or first base, where only Joey Meneses (coming off a league average offensive showing) stands in the way.
- Joc Pederson: The Blue Jays are the only club publicly tied to Pederson this winter. He’s coming off a middling season in which he hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers through 425 plate appearances for the Giants. That’s not huge power production at first glance, but Pederson has five 20+ homer seasons on his résumé (four with at least 25 longballs). He made hard contact — an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH — on more than half his batted balls last season, a top 15 rate in the majors. Pederson is a limited player. He’s best served as a DH and is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. He still has life in the bat, though, even if last year’s results were underwhelming.
- Eddie Rosario: There hasn’t been any public chatter on Rosario since the Braves declined a $9MM option at the start of the offseason. He should command a one-year deal at a salary that’s not too far below that rate. Rosario is coming off a reasonably effective year. He hit 21 homers with a .255/.305/.450 line in 516 trips to the plate. That was the fourth time in his career that he surpassed 20 longballs. Rosario is mostly limited to left field but rated reasonably well with the glove last year. His performance varies wildly within seasons, but he tends to produce roughly league average numbers by the end.
- Joey Gallo: Gallo hit 21 homers in just 332 plate appearances a season ago. The flaw in his game, huge swing-and-miss rates, has only magnified in recent seasons. Gallo hasn’t hit above the Mendoza line since 2019. He’s hitting .168 with a .290 on-base percentage in 742 plate appearances over the last two campaigns. There are a lot of uncompetitive at-bats. Few players fit the profile of a “left-handed power bat” quite like Gallo, though.
Trade Possibilities
It’s tougher to identify great fits on the trade market in the absence of many clear rebuilding teams. The Nationals could theoretically take a bigger swing at a player with an extended control window (e.g. Alec Burleson, Jesús Sánchez). That’s not an easy task to pull off, particularly since Washington is probably reluctant to part with significant prospect talent. There are a few veteran bats who’d make some sense as speculative trade candidates for a lesser return.
- Josh Bell: Bell had a productive stint over his year and a half in Washington from 2021-22. He hit .278/.363/.483 in just over 1000 plate appearances before being included in the Juan Soto trade. Bell has changed uniforms twice more since that deadline blockbuster, signing with the Guardians before being flipped to the Marlins last summer. The switch-hitting first baseman struggled in Cleveland (.233/.318/.383) but generally turned things around in South Florida (.270/.338/.480). That reasonably strong finish wasn’t enough for Bell to forego a $16.5MM player option for the upcoming season. It stands to reason the Fish would be happy to get out from under the bulk of that deal if the Nationals were interested in a reunion.
- Seth Brown: A’s GM David Forst indicated at the beginning of the offseason that he didn’t expect to trade Brown. That’s presumably more about Oakland feeling that other teams won’t meet their ask than an indication they wouldn’t consider offers on a 31-year-old platoon player. Brown is a career .237/.305/.471 hitter against right-handed pitching. He can play first base or the corner outfield and is under arbitration control for three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $2.4MM salary.
- Mike Yastrzemski: Yastrzemski is projected for a $7.3MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration season. He hit 15 homers in 381 plate appearances a year ago, running a .233/.330/.445 line overall. The Giants aren’t likely to urgently shop Yastrzemski, but the singing of Jung Hoo Lee pushes him from center field to the corner opposite Michael Conforto. Trading Mitch Haniger paved the way for a Lee, Conforto, Yastrzemski outfield supplemented by righty-hitting Austin Slater, but the Giants also have Luis Matos, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos as options on the grass.
Minor League Deal Candidates
Each of these players has turned in above-average offense from the left side in their careers. None hit free agency under great circumstances. Choi had an injury-plagued 2023 campaign that kept him to 39 games without much production. The other four players were either non-tendered or elected free agency after an outright.
Meadows has missed most of the past two seasons attending to anxiety; it is unclear if he’ll be in position to return next year. Ford and Vogelbach are largely limited to DH, while Walsh hasn’t been the same since he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in 2022. None of these players are likely to be Washington’s top acquisition, but they’d be viable depth targets if the Nats wanted a second lefty bat on a minor league or low-cost MLB pact.
]]>Kirilloff was playing in his first MLB game since July 29, as a right shoulder strain forced the former top prospect to the sidelines. Since recovery from wrist surgery already delayed Kirilloff’s season debut until May 6, he has played in only 70 games this season, though Kirilloff has hit a solid .270/.355/.439 over 262 plate appearances. A hefty .353 BABIP has certainly aided that production, but it still represents a very nice step forward for Kirilloff after wrist problems hampered his first two seasons in the majors.
Now back on the active roster, Kirilloff figures to resume his role as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, with Donovan Solano stepping in to spell Kirilloff against left-handed pitching. Gallo was also a significant part of the first base mix, but he’ll now miss some time after fouling a ball off his foot, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).
Signed to a one-year, $11MM free agent contract last winter, Gallo has to some extent rebounded from his rough 2022 season, as his .177/.301/.440 slash line and 21 homers in 332 PA does translate to an above-average 103 wRC+. However, most of Gallo’s production came in April, and he has been in a pronounced slump for the rest of the season. Gallo’s ability to play first base and all three outfield positions has made him a useful asset for a Minnesota team that has been hit with multiple injuries over the course of 2023, but it remains to be seen if Gallo will be part of a postseason roster, should the Twins hold on to win the AL Central.
Byron Buxton’s status is also an x-factor at this point, as the former All-Star hasn’t played since appearing in a minor league rehab game on September 1. Buxton was playing in his first game as an outfielder in over a year, as recurring knee problems resulted in arthroscopic surgery late in the 2022 season, and the Twins’ decision to use Buxton exclusively as a designated hitter this season. With Buxton currently on the IL due to a hamstring injury, the Twins were trying to ease Buxton back into fielding duty, only to be set back by this latest case of patella tendinitis.
Baldelli didn’t have any new update on when Buxton might be able to play again, at either the minor league or MLB levels. There’s something of a holding pattern situation until Buxton is healthy, but as Baldelli noted, “that doesn’t mean he’s not going to play for us. We’re anticipating him working his way back and taking the field for us.”
In other Twins injury news, Michael A. Taylor and Nick Gordon each took part in a live batting practice session against Brock Stewart, as all three players continue to make some progress in their rehab work. Gordon still isn’t expected back until closer to the end of the regular season, but Taylor might be back in relatively short order, after being placed on the IL last Sunday due to a right hamstring strain.
In addition to the live BP session, Taylor also said he did some baserunning work on Friday. Taylor has hit a career-high 20 homers and has been one of baseball’s best defensive center fielders, putting him in line for his second career Gold Glove and giving Minnesota some much-needed relief up the middle with Buxton relegated to DH work.
Stewart last pitched in the majors in 2019 before resurfacing with the Twins this year, and he returned in grand fashion by posting an 0.70 ERA over 25 2/3 relief innings. Unfortunately, Stewart’s season was cut short by elbow soreness in late June, which has now led to a lengthy stint on the 60-day injured list. Stewart is likely to need some minor league rehab work given the longer layoff, but he should be able to get back before the regular season is over.
]]>Minnesota’s left-handed outfield depth has been a subject of some attention dating back to the offseason. Minnesota didn’t pull the trigger on a deal over the winter, though, instead carrying five lefty-swinging outfielders (plus first baseman/corner outfielder Alex Kirilloff) on the 40-man roster. Nick Gordon has been out for a couple months after breaking his right shin but the rest of the group remains.
Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner stand as the most viable possibilities for a deal. Kepler is in the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s making $8.5MM, while the club holds a $10MM option for next year. The 30-year-old has a league average .230/.295/.439 batting line over 75 contests on the season. He’s been on a tear of late, though, hitting .299/.351/.493 since the start of July.
Larnach and Wallner are less established but more affordable younger players. Larnach is a former first-round pick and top prospect who hasn’t found his stride in parts of three MLB campaigns. He’s a career .223/.315/.379 hitter. Larnach has plus exit velocities and solid grades for his defense at both corner outfield spots. Swing-and-miss has been the big concern, as he’s gone down on strikes in over a third of his plate appearances. The Twins have bounced him on and off the active roster this season. He’s hitting .213/.311/.400 in the majors and .230/.351/.467 in a very hitter-friendly Triple-A setting.
Wallner, 25, only has 37 big league games under his belt. That’s in large part thanks to the Twins’ outfield surplus, as he’s acquitted himself well in that limited look. The Southern Miss product carries a .250/.370/.390 batting line at the MLB level and has mashed at a .291/.403/.524 clip through 67 games in Triple-A this season. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his range in the outfield, although he has elite arm strength.
Minnesota doesn’t have to move anyone in the group, of course. The Twins lead the AL Central by four games. If they did seriously consider dealing any of that trio, it stands to reason they’d want MLB help in another area of the roster.
The rest of the Twins’ outfield options seem unlikely to move. Kirilloff has taken over as the everyday first baseman and is hitting .282/.371/.465 in 66 games. There’s little reason for Minnesota to consider dealing him. They’d probably be hard-pressed to find much interest in Joey Gallo, who is playing the season on an $11MM free agent deal. Gallo got off to a scorching start in the Twin Cities but is hitting .149/.237/.391 while striking out in almost half his plate appearances since the start of June, bringing his overall batting line to .176/.295/.452. Gordon’s injury takes him out of the equation, while the switch-hitting Willi Castro frequently draws into the lineup against left-handed pitching as a utility option.
Interestingly, the outfield isn’t the only area of the roster in which Minnesota has apparently given some thought to dealing from its depth. Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reports the Twins had given some thought to dealing Kenta Maeda earlier in the season. That would’ve presumably been to make way for Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation, as the former Cy Young winner is having a strong year in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal.
It doesn’t seem that’s likely at this point. Maeda has been excellent in six starts since returning from a triceps issue. The veteran righty has worked to a 2.48 ERA with a massive 34.4% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings. Relinquishing that kind of production while the team tries to hold onto a division title would probably be too risky. Keuchel forewent an opportunity to opt out of his deal last week but can do so again on Tuesday. Ghiroli reports that he’d be guaranteed a prorated $2.05MM base salary if Minnesota calls him up. The Twins could bring him up for a multi-inning role out of the bullpen if they don’t feel there’s room in the starting staff at present.
]]>Gallo’s own left-handed bat has been revived in the Twin Cities this season, as his .188/.321/.478 slash line translates to a 121 wRC+. Despite the low batting average, Gallo is providing a lot of pop, with 11 homers over 165 plate appearances. The bulk of Gallo’s playing time has come at first base, but he has also seen a lot of action in left field and some work in the other outfield spots. After a tough 2022 campaign, this season has represented something of a return to form for Gallo, which could pay off nicely when he re-enters the free agent market this winter.
Unfortunately, this is the second time injuries have stalled Gallo’s bounce-back season. He spent a minimal 10-day stint on the IL in April due to a minor intercostal strain, and he’ll now be sidelined again in order to heal up this nagging hamstring issue. Gallo first hurt his hamstring almost two weeks ago and has been trying to play through the discomfort, with the Twins also giving him a couple of off-days and using him as a designated hitter. An IL trip was deemed necessary for Gallo to get fully fit, and since Gallo was somewhat able to play with the strain, he again might not be out of action for too long.
]]>Correa sat out yesterday’s game with a bruised left heel and he had an MRI, per Dan Hayes of MLB.com. Although some inflammation was found, it seemed like a minor issue that could allow him to return in a few days and he sat out today’s contest as well. Now it seems that further testing has found that the issue is a bit more serious than initially thought and the club will have to decide whether to put him officially on the shelf or play shorthanded for a few days.
Many fans will read about Correa’s foot and immediately think of the hoopla that surrounded his free agency this winter when he twice had nine-figure agreements scuttled by health concerns. He and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal but they backed out at the last second, leading Correa to pivot to the Mets and a 12-year, $315MM deal. Both of those clubs became wary over the health of Correa’s ankle, though that was in his right leg while this week’s issue is with Correa’s left foot.
When those deals fell through, Correa landed with the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal with four vesting options that could take the full payout to $270MM over 10 years. The shortstop has scuffled out of the gate here in 2023, currently hitting .213/.302/.396 through 192 plate appearances for a 92 wRC+. That’s well shy of his career output but it’s likely that poor fortune is playing a role, as his .252 batting average on balls in play is well below his .315 career mark.
It would be fair to expect Correa to get better results going forward via positive regression but that might have to wait a bit, depending on how long this foot injury lingers. Though it doesn’t seem like this is especially concerning on its own, the club is dealing with a growing injury problem overall. Infielder/outfielder Joey Gallo missed today’s game with a sore hamstring, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, and the club might want to rest him a few more times. Unlike Correa, Gallo is out to a roaring start this year, hitting 11 home runs already while walking in 14.2% of his plate appearances. That’s led to a .211/.328/.561 batting line and 141 wRC+.
The Twins also have six position players on the injured list, with Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino and Royce Lewis all on the shelf. While the issues of Correa and Gallo seem to be on the minor side, it will continue to test their depth during a time when it’s already being stretched. Since the club was largely undone by injuries in 2022, they will surely be hoping for a bit better luck in that department in the months to come as they look to hang onto their slim lead in the American League Central.
]]>Gordon’s 2023 campaign began with an injury scare. He suffered a right high ankle sprain in Spring Training but recovered quickly enough to avoid a season-opening IL stay. He’s had a slow start from a performance perspective, though, hitting only .176/.195/.319 over 93 trips to the plate. It has been a disappointing follow-up to a productive .272/.316/.427 showing in a career-high 443 plate appearances for the former fifth overall pick.
Manager Rocco Baldelli has bounced Gordon around the diamond. He’s seen a decent number of innings at each of center field, left field and second base. With Byron Buxton working as a designated hitter as part of Minnesota’s efforts to keep him healthy, the lefty-swinging Gordon has gotten the strong side of a platoon arrangement with right-handed Michael A. Taylor in center field of late.
Gordon’s injury figures to open more playing time for the glove-first Taylor in center field. He’s off to a .231/.286/.404 start to his Twins’ tenure. Donovan Solano and Willi Castro can play multi-positional infield roles off the bench. That could take on particular importance considering second baseman Jorge Polanco also came out of today’s game with an injury.
Polanco told reporters postgame he has a mild strain of his left hamstring (relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). The team will reevaluate after tomorrow’s off day to determine whether he might require an IL stay. The switch-hitting infielder lost some time at the start of the season rehabbing from a 2022 knee issue. He’s been off to a quality .284/.327/.484 start since returning.
Gordon wasn’t the only Minnesota player to foul a ball off his leg this afternoon. Outfielder Joey Gallo had an early departure after hitting one off his own shin. He said after the game that x-rays were negative but noted there was quite a bit of swelling in the area (Helfand link). He’s presently day-to-day and figures to test things out again on Friday. Gallo missed a bit of time due to an intercostal strain but he’s already slugged 10 homers after signing a one-year free agent deal over the winter.
]]>Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)
Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs
The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.
Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.
In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.
Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9
Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.
Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.
All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.
Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs
After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.
Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.
So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.
Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9
Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.
Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:
Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.
Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.
Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.
Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs
Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.
Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.
As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.
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