None of that addresses the shortstop situation, however, so the club will seemingly head into camp with a positional battle there. That’s a risky but defensive strategy, as the winter market didn’t feature many better alternatives. On the trade market, Bo Bichette was in a few rumors but never seemed to be truly available.

In free agency, Willy Adames was the only healthy everyday shortstop. He signed a seven-year, $182MM deal with the Giants. The Tigers certainly could have matched that, given their fairly clean future payroll ledger, but it never seemed likely that they would. They already have a lot of money dedicated to the position, as the one big deal still on the books is for a shortstop, and they also have some potential long-term solutions just a bit over the horizon.

Let’s take a look at the current picture, the short term and the long term, as spring training is ramping up.

The Expensive Bounceback Candidate

Javier Báez

The struggles of Báez in Detroit are no big secret at this point. The Tigers signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. He had just finished a six-year stretch in which he hit .271/.312/.490 for a 107 wRC+ with strong defensive and baserunning grades, allowing him to produce 21.9 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

In his first year as a Tiger, he hit .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 89, a disappointing but not disastrous performance. He fell even further in 2023, producing a .222/.267/.325 line and 63 wRC+. Another drop came last year, with Báez coming up with a dismal line of .184/.221/.294 and a 48 wRC+. His defensive metrics have also fallen in that time.

The most favorable view of Báez right now is that his recent nosedive has been health related. He only got into 80 games last year, missing time due to lumbar spine and hip inflammation. He underwent season-ending surgery in August. It didn’t come out of nowhere. Back in February of last year, Báez told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that he dealt with lower back discomfort throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

That probably sounds like a convenient excuse but it could perhaps explain why his performance has dropped so precipitously. If the surgery has addressed his issues and he can get back to full strength in 2025, that could allow him to reverse his recent trends. Even if he doesn’t fully return to All-Star form, there would be value in simply being less bad.

If the struggles continue, the Tigers could face a tough choice. Teams are generally reluctant to give up on players when there’s still so much of the deal remaining. It’s pretty rare for a guy on an eight- or nine-figure deal to be released with more than two years left on the deal. Báez still has three years left on his pact but that will gradually move closer to two as the summer rolls along. Even if he doesn’t get released, there’s a chance he gets pushed into being an expensive utility/bench player.

The Possible Short-Term Alternative

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney, 25 in April, served as a passable fill-in while Báez was recovering from surgery last year. He made his major league debut by getting into 36 games down the stretch as the Tigers were engineering their amazing comeback. Sweeney slashed .218/.269/.373 for a wRC+ of 81. His defense was graded as above average, in a small sample of 294 innings.

That was far better than anything Báez has done recently, but was also significantly less than Báez at his peak. Whether Sweeney is the best option likely depends on which version of Báez is going to show up in 2025.

Sweeney’s not really considered a top prospect. Baseball America currently ranks him eighth in the system. He’s has some good numbers in the minors but there are some concerns about the strikeouts. He slashed .267/.345/.450 in Triple-A last year but was punched out in 26.7% of his plate appearances. In his brief big league time, he had a similar 26.9% strikeout rate.

The ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other players mentioned here, but Sweeney has been to the big leagues and handled himself well enough. If things go south with Báez again, the Tigers will have a fallback. But since he has options, he might be playing every day in Triple-A to start the season while Báez tries to get back on track.

The Immediate Depth

Zach McKinstry/Ryan Kreidler

McKinstry, 30 in April, isn’t a huge bat but is a fine bench/utility guy. He has 1,207 major league plate appearances to this point in his career with a .220/.285/.357 line and 79 wRC+. But he has also stolen 40 bases, including 16 in each of the past two years. He got those 16 bags last year without getting caught. He has also lined up at all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, with pretty solid marks all over. Despite the tepid bat, FanGraphs has credited him with 3.0 wins above replacement in 323 games over the past three seasons. He’s out of options and will be on the big league bench.

Kreidler, 27, is still looking to get to that level. He has a line of .147/.212/.193 in his three-year big league career, though in just 167 plate appearances. But his shortstop defense has been considered above average, in addition to playing second base, third base and a bit of outfield. He had a rough showing offensively in the minors last year but has been better in the past. He still has an option and could be ticketed for Triple-A to start the year.

The Possible Shortstops Of The Future

Kevin McGonigle/Bryce Rainer

On Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there are two Detroit shortstop prospects. McGonigle has the #23 spot with Rainer at #60. The brief take on the situation is that McGonigle is the better pure hitter, and closer to the majors, but there’s more of a risk that he’ll need to move off shortstop in the future.

Just 20 years old right now, McGonigle was taken 37th overall in 2023 with a competitive balance pick. Since that draft selection, he has played in 95 minor league games, stepping to the plate 421 times. A massive 15.2% of those plate appearances have resulted in a walk, compared to a strikeout rate of just 9%. There were only six home runs in there but his .310/.412/.443 combined line nonetheless translates to a 143 wRC+. He finished last year at High-A, so getting to Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2025 seem like realistic outcomes.

Rainer is only 19, having just been drafted a few months ago. The Tigers took him with the 11th overall pick in 2024 out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles. They didn’t get him into any minor league games after that draft, so he still has no college or professional experience to speak of.

Still, the expectations are high. As mentioned, BA has him 60th overall already. MLB Pipeline has him at #53, ESPN at #79 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #70. He didn’t crack the FanGraphs list but that outlet highlighted him as a player who has a strong chance of charging into the top 100 once he makes his professional debut. There are some questions about contact ability but his power and throwing arm are considered to be huge assets.

Defensively, McGonigle is considered to have the arm for shortstop but his range and motion are more questionable. Rainer is perhaps a better bet to stick at short but he also still needs to get his feet wet as a professional.

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Neither McGonigle nor Rainer have even reached Double-A yet, so there’s still some time before things get really tight. But Báez has three years left on his deal and many fans already calling for him to go. There’s no way for the Tigers to get any of that money back, so the best-case scenario would still be a Báez bounceback. If that doesn’t come to pass, the club could pivot to Sweeney in the short term and then McGonigle and Rainer in the long term. Though prospects don’t always work out as hoped, so there are no guarantees there.

How the chips fall should be impactful for the future of the Tigers. They have no serious commitments on their long-term payroll apart from Báez. Their recent six-year offer to Bregman shows they are willing to get more aggressive. If they can find an internal solution at short, there should be resources available for other parts of the roster.

It’s a proposition that manager A.J. Hinch appears at least somewhat open to, with Hinch noting that Carpenter is “going to get opportunities and probably more opportunities moving forward.” Hinch also cautioned that those opportunities won’t just be gifted to Carpenter once the regular season begins, however.

“But more doesn’t mean every one. And more doesn’t come for free,” Hinch said, as relayed by McCosky. “There is a cost that comes with every decision and we will be weighing that. Last year’s evaluation doesn’t have to be this year’s evaluation. We have an open mind as to how to use our roster. But I stand behind that my job is to use the roster the best way we can.”

Concerns about Carpenter’s ability to produce against southpaws are understandable despite his minimal opportunities against them. He’s a career .202/.286/.303 hitter against lefties in the majors, with a 23.9% strikeout rate, a walk rate of 6.7%, and just four extra-base hits. Those strikeout and walk figures are actually pretty close to Carpenter’s career numbers of 25.6% and 6.9% respectively, but the complete disappearance of Carpenter’s trademark power will need to be overcome in order for the 27-year-old to be a valuable offensive presence against left-handed pitching.

In addition to more opportunities against southpaws, Carpenter is hoping to more frequently work his way into the lineup as an outfielder in 2025 rather than being limited to DH-only duties. Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez will give Carpenter some competition for that job with Riley Greene and Parker Meadows entrenched in left and center field respectively, but if Carpenter can prove himself a viable option in the field and begin providing at least passable power output against southpaws, the platoon slugger could begin to put together a more well-rounded profile in 2025.

While Carpenter is attempting to carve out a larger role for himself in the outfield, the Tigers are trying to assess the future of veteran Javier Baez on the infield. Baez, 32, missed the club’s surprise playoff push last year after undergoing hip surgery in August. The six-year pact Detroit gave Baez coming off his impressive run with the Cubs from the breakout 2018 season that saw him finish second in NL MVP voting to a 2021 season where he was traded to the Mets and caught fire down the stretch has not gone according to plan.

Since arriving in Detroit, Baez has hit just .221/.262/.347 in three seasons. He remained a plus defender at shortstop for the club in 2022 and ’23, but even his glove took a step back last season and a strong late-season performance from Trey Sweeney as the club’s shortstop has left Baez without a clear role on the team going forward. As noted by McCosky, Baez has resumed swinging at 100% strength but has not yet begun to face live pitching. Even so, he’s on track to begin the season on time, and Hinch made clear that the club is glad to have him healthy and in the fold for 2025 even if his role can’t be determined until after he’s put rehab fully behind him.

One place where Baez appears to be a clear fit for the club’s needs is against left-handed pitching. The Tigers’ offense is heavily left-handed even after adding Gleyber Torres to the lineup at second base, and a right-handed hitter who can help to spell southpaws around the infield like Sweeney and Colt Keith should have plenty of value for Detroit. Baez has been a perfectly acceptable hitter against lefties even during his time in Detroit, slashing .268/.314/.433 (108 wRC+) with a strikeout rate of just 20.1% and 24 extra base hits in 284 trips to the plate against lefties between 2022 and 2023. If he can get back to that level of production against southpaws, Baez could be a key asset for the Tigers this year even if he doesn’t bounce far enough back to reclaim an everyday role.

Baez isn’t the only veteran attempting a comeback after struggling badly in 2024. Veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda is expected to get “every opportunity” to rejoin the club’s rotation after pitching to a 6.09 ERA last year and getting kicked to the bullpen after 17 starts, and news of an injury that will keep veteran righty Alex Cobb off the roster to start the season leaves two open spots in the club’s rotation behind Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson. Maeda figures to be in competition with Casey Mize, Keider Montero, and Jackson Jobe among others as he tries to earn one of those two spots.

In hopes of proving himself capable the soon to be 37-year-old hurler changed up his offseason routine this winter. According to MLive’s Evan Woodbery, Maeda began his offseason work with eight bullpen sessions during his time in Japan this offseason despite the fact that he’s typically waited until he returns stateside for Spring Training to resume throwing. The early start to his throwing program, Maeda noted, is in order to make sure he’s putting his best foot forward as he tries to recapture his rotation job this spring. In addition to starting his preseason regime earlier than usual, Maeda notes that he believes he’s fixed some mechanical issues he dealt with last year after working with the Tigers’ pitching development staff this offseason.

A return to form for Maeda would be a major help for a Tigers club with plenty of upside but little certainty in the rotation. Dominant as Skubal was in his Cy Young award-winning season last year, he’s dealt with plenty of injury issues throughout his career. The same can be said for Flaherty, Mize, Jobe, Matt Manning, and a host of other potentially key pitchers for the Tigers this year. Maeda’s own injury history is far from clean, but having an effective veteran starter at the back of the rotation should nonetheless be a major help for the club as they look for better results out of a rotation that saw only Skubal make more than 22 starts and only Mize and Olson join him in making at least 20 last year.

Detroit’s blazing finish to the regular season and spirited postseason run that saw them sweep the Astros in the Wild Card round of play raised expectations surrounding the club and left no doubt about their status as hopeful contenders heading into the offseason. President of baseball operations Scott Harris met with the Tigers’ beat today, discussing the team’s sensational second half and taking a look at the offseason to come (links via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com and Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic).

Among the more prominent takeaways are that the Tigers will pursue a right-handed bat to augment a lineup that Harris believes became too left-handed, as well as additional support on the pitching side of things — both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Harris also downplayed the possibility of cutting ties with struggling veterans Javier Baez and Kenta Maeda. The third-year Detroit president suggested he expects Baez to be in spring training and added that he can see a role for him on the 2025 roster. He added that the Tigers “could have done a better job preparing” Maeda for the 2024 season and that there’s “absolutely” a place for him on the 2025 roster.

Tigers fans have already bristled at the idea of Baez and Maeda returning, although there’d be little point in Harris broadcasting that one or both will be cut loose at this time. Maeda, in particular, is only a year removed from a nice season. With just a year and $10MM remaining on his deal, he could potentially be swapped for another onerous veteran contract if such an opportunity presents itself. The Tigers won’t find a taker for Baez after he’s floundered throughout the first three years of his six-year contract in Detroit, but releasing the remaining $73MM left on that deal is likely more an ownership call anyhow.

Neither of the items atop Detroit’s offseason wishlist should come as a surprise. Detroit struggled against southpaws for much of the season, finishing in the bottom-third of the league in terms of overall production against left-handed opponents. As a collective unit, they slashed .229/.298/.362 versus lefties. The resulting 88 wRC+ indicates that Tigers hitters were 12% worse than league-average against southpaws.

Matt Vierling, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Spencer Torkelson, Andy Ibanez and Justyn-Henry Malloy were the only current Tigers with at least 50 plate appearances and better-than-average output against lefties. Each of Keith (27.3%), Meadows (32.3%) and Malloy (34.4%) found that success despite massive strikeout rates against lefties. Each posted a BABIP of .385 or better in those matchups. Some regression should be expected. Among Tigers expected regulars, all of Meadows, Keith, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Trey Sweeney swing from the left side of the plate. That’s also true of top prospect Jace Jung, who’ll be in the mix for third base reps next year, depending on how the offseason shakes out.

The good news for Harris and the Tigers is that the upcoming class of free agent bats is far superior to last year’s crop. Among the notable right-handed bats on the market are Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez, Christian Walker, Tyler O’Neill and switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar.

Broadly, Harris voiced confidence that ownership would afford him resources to be active in the market, though he also cautioned that he’s less concerned  with pursuing payroll upgrades than he is talent upgrades; put another way, the trade market could well come into play as the club seeks upgrades in the lineup and on the pitching staff. Further, the Tigers’ baseball ops leader touted the flexibility that someone like Vierling gives him in looking to address the lineup. The versatile Vierling’s ability to handle both third base and any spot in the outfield means Harris can pursue upgrades at multiple positions. Hypothetically, Vierling could man the outfield in the event that the Tigers took a massive swing and signed Bregman to handle third base. Similarly, Vierling could take a significant portion of the workload at the hot corner if the Tigers instead wind up adding an outfielder like Hernandez, Santander or O’Neill.

On the pitching side of the coin, additions have seemed like a foregone conclusion. The Tigers utilized only one traditional starter during the playoffs — Skubal — and otherwise went with an all-hands-on-deck approach that manager A.J. Hinch termed “pitching chaos.” Bullpen games were the norm throughout September and into October, with relievers like Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske and Brenan Hanifee all getting into the act. While that made for an entertaining brand of baseball, it also puts a lot of strain on the staff as a whole and requires leaning heavily on a typically volatile group of pitchers (relievers) in terms of year-to-year performance.

Entering 2025, Skubal will be back to reprise his role atop the rotation. He’ll presumably be joined by Reese Olson and Casey Mize, with other rotation candidates including Maeda, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, Ty Madden, Brant Hurter and top prospect Jackson Jobe. Even though the club surely anticipates a huge role for Jobe in the very near future, there’s still room for upgrades while keeping those other arms involved. Hurter has shown plenty of aptitude for relief work during the “pitching chaos” experiment, and he has minor league options remaining — as do Hurter, Montero, Madden and Jobe. Manning will be out of options next season and will be in something of a make-or-break scenario next spring. Speculatively, he could also be someone who draws trade interest if/when Detroit adds to the rotation via free agency or trade.

As is the case with position players, the 2024-25 crop of free agents offers a relatively deep class of arms. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and old friend Jack Flaherty headline the pitching class, but there are other notable free agents including Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi — to say nothing of older short-term vets who know a thing or two about pitching at Comerica Park (i.e. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer).

From a pure payroll vantage point, there shouldn’t be much that’s off the table for Detroit. The Tigers have previously run player payroll up to the $200MM mark — albeit under the late Mike Ilitch’s ownership; his son, Chris, is now the team’s control person — and currently have only $38.5MM on the books in player salary next year. That comes in the form of a $25MM salary for Baez under his ill-fated six-year deal, a $10MM salary for Maeda and a $3.5MM salary for Keith.

Detroit’s arbitration class features 11 players and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost $27.4MM, though a couple non-tender candidates in the group could cut that by a few million. Add in a slate of league-minimum salaries (or close to it) to round out the roster, and the Tigers are looking at about $75-78MM in player salary as things currently stand. That’s not to say fans should expect an all-out blitz in free agency and earnest pursuits of Juan Soto, Burnes and Bregman in conjunction with one another. At the same time, the team’s wide-open payroll outlook would make a legitimate run at Bregman or any other free agent possible.

That applies to potential extension talks as well. Asked specifically about Skubal, Harris instead spoke in generalities about his desire to avoid publicly commenting on individual players’ contract statuses (X link via Woodbery). “You saw what we did with Colt Keith,” said Harris. “We started discussions privately, came to an agreement, and announced it. I don’t think it’s constructive to comment on individuals, and it’s not fair to the players given the sensitivity of those talks.”

Beyond Skubal, there are a handful of logical extension candidates on the Tigers. Brieske and Vierling are reaching arbitration for the first time this winter, and the Tigers could look into modest deals to secure cost certainty and perhaps buy out a free agent year or two. Players like Carpenter, Meadows, Greene, Olson or even Jobe could all be targets as the front office looks to establish a core of long-term contributors in the Motor City. More broadly, Harris emphasized the importance of some of those young players taking the very same type of step that Skubal did in 2024.

“There are too many young players on this roster that can and must improve this offseason,” said Harris. “The gains that they access this offseason with the help of this coaching staff; when we add all those things up when we get to Lakeland in February, they have to outweigh anything we do via external additions. Because there is just too much opportunity on our roster.”

Báez was placed on the 10-day injured list a few days ago, with what the Tigers described as lumbar spine and hip inflammation. It’s possible the issue has been bothering him for a while, as he also missed close to a month earlier this year due to lumbar spine inflammation. He previously told Petzold that he has dealt with lower back discomfort throughout his time with the Tigers.

Perhaps the back/hip issues provide some kind of explanation for his precipitous drop-off in terms of performance since coming to Detroit. Through the end of 2021, he had a career batting line of .264/.307/.477 for a wRC+ of 104. When combined with his strong shortstop defense and baserunning, he had produced 21.6 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The Tigers signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022 but he has hit just .221/.262/.347 over the life of that deal for a wRC+ of 69. That includes an atrocious .184/.221/.294 line and 41 wRC+ this year. Among players with at least 250 plate appearances this season, only Brandon Drury has a lower wRC+. Báez has also had less impressive numbers on defense in recent years and his contract is considered one of the worst in the sport at the moment.

Ideally, the surgery will address the issue and allow Báez to put this miserable stretch behind him, but there’s no guarantee that will come to pass. He’s now 31 years old, turning 32 in the offseason. That means the rest of the contract will see him trying to battle against the standard effects of time, in addition to overcoming this back/hip problem.

Even if he doesn’t get all the way back to his pre-Tigers form, there’s a lot of room for improvement over his current results, which the Tigers would happily take. They are pivoting to a young crop of position players, giving lots of playing time to infielders Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Trey Sweeney. The Tigers likely view that group as a more significant part of their next competitive window than Báez, but even if he could become a solid utility/bench player, that would likely be viewed as a nice consolation relative to how rough things have gone over the past three seasons. His deal will still have $73MM and three years remaining after the conclusion of the 2024 season.

That doesn’t sound like it bodes well for Baez’s chances of returning in 2024, as the Tigers have only the faintest hopes of a wild card berth and might just choose to shut Baez down to get him ready for next year.  While injuries have contributed to Baez’s struggles this season, his .184/.221/.294 slash line over 289 plate appearances marks the third straight disastrous year for Baez since coming to Detroit on a six-year, $140MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason.  With $73MM still owed to Baez over the 2025-27 seasons, the contract is already an albatross, and it remains to be seen exactly how much longer the Tigers still stick with Baez as a regular part of their lineup (or whether they could release him altogether).

More from around the AL Central…

• Sonny Gray told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale that the Twins didn’t make much of a push to re-sign him when the veteran righty entered free agency last winter.  “They were very transparent from the get-go, saying, ’Listen, we do not have the resources to give you a contract, as much as we would like to.’  So, I kind of knew that,” Gray said.  “Even though we did come back a couple of times and try to work on some things, I kind of knew early on that it wasn’t [happening].”  The Twins’ lack of certainty over their broadcasting contract led to a payroll reduction last winter and continued budget limitations this year, so it didn’t seem too likely that Minnesota would be able to outbid the several other clubs who had interest in Gray’s services.  Gray ended up signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals, and he has continued to pitch well in St. Louis, if not at the level of his AL Cy Young runner-up performance with the Twins in 2023.  Gray will face his old teammates today when he gets the start for the Cards in today’s game in Minneapolis.
• In other Twins news, Alex Kirilloff started a Triple-A rehab assignment yesterday and Brooks Lee will start a similar assignment today, manager Rocco Baldelli told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters.  However, Baldelli still didn’t have any new news on Carlos Correa, saying the shortstop is just “continually making steady improvement” as he recovers from plantar fasciitis in his right heel.  Correa hasn’t played since July 12, and he received a PRP injection early in his recovery process.
• White Sox GM Chris Getz told reporters (including Mike Clark of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Yoan Moncada and Michael Soroka will start Triple-A rehab assignments on Tuesday.  Moncada played in only 11 games before a left adductor strain sidelined him for the majority of the season, but it looks like he’s on track to get back to the majors at some point in September.  Soroka had a 5.23 ERA over 72 1/3 innings in his first season with the White Sox, and he has missed close to six weeks recovering from a strain in his right shoulder.

Hanifee, 26, got a brief look in the majors last year. The Tigers selected his contract in September and he tossed five innings over three appearances, allowing three earned runs. He was non-tendered at the end of the season but then re-signed with the club on a minor league deal.

This year, he has tossed 47 innings over 34 Triple-A appearances. He has allowed 5.17 earned runs per nine innings but he has likely deserved much better. His 26% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball this year are all strong marks. If it weren’t for a .315 batting average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate, which are both on the unlucky side, fewer runs would have crossed the plate. His 3.86 FIP is more than a run better than his ERA and perhaps a better reflection of his performance this year.

With the trades of Flaherty and Chafin, as well as recent injuries to Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Matt Manning, the Tigers could have some rope for Hanifee, especially since he’s been averaging more than an inning per appearance in Triple-A this year. He still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, so he could stick around on their roster for a while if the Tigers so choose.

Guenther, 28, made 14 appearances for the Marlins in 2021 with a 9.30 ERA. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2022 and spent that entire season on the injured list before being claimed off waivers by the Tigers in November. He was outrighted off the roster shortly thereafter and has been with the Tigers in a non-roster capacity for almost two years now.

He has thrown 95 minor league innings in that time with a 3.69 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate. He had a 47.1% ground ball rate at Triple-A last year and has a 55.5% rate at that level this year. Like Hanifee, he has a full slate of options but his service time clock is over the one-year mark, due to spending all of 2022 on the IL.

Dingler, 25, was a second-round pick of the Tigers in 2020 and has been considered one of their top prospects since then. His defense behind the plate is considered strong but there’s more uncertainty with his offense, as he can hit for power but also strikes out a lot.

He has stepped to the plate just under 1500 times in his minor league career thus far, getting punched out in 27.5% of those. But he’s also displayed that power with 59 home runs. Overall, he’s hit .257/.344/.459 for a wRC+ of 114.

It appears he has made notable strides in the strikeout department this year, as he has only been punched out in 20.3% of his 301 Triple-A plate appearances. But he’s still hit 17 home runs and drawn walks at a 10% clip. All that leads to a .308/.379/.559 batting line and 137 wRC+. With Kelly now out of the picture, Dingler figures to get a decent amount of playing time, sharing the catching duties with Jake Rogers.

Sammons, 29, gets the call for the first time as well. He was drafted by the Twins back in 2017 and has never really been a top prospect. But he has been starting in the minors and might be needed to soak up some innings. Jack Flaherty was supposed to start tonight but was scratched as he’s likely to be traded at any moment. Beau Brieske is starting tonight in what is likely to be a bullpen game.

That could leave Sammons taking on some bulk innings. He has made 17 Triple-A starts this year with 84 innings pitched. In that time, he has a 4.18 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 36.4% ground ball rate.

As for Mize, he landed on the IL July 3 due to a left hamstring strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that point, which would be early September. Manager A.J. Hinch said it would be a “photo finish” to get back by that time, per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic on X, so he might be able to return when first eligible.

That’s a quality performance that virtually any club would like to have at the front to middle of their rotation, but his underlying metrics have been even more elite. Flaherty has struck out an eye-popping 33% of batters faced while walking just 4% this year, giving him the league’s second-highest K-BB% behind only White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet. While home runs- which have been an issue that has plagued Flaherty throughout his career- have remained an issue as 18.3% of his fly balls have left the yard this year, the right-hander has also generated grounders at a full-season career best clip of 44.2%. All of that has combined to give Flaherty an MLB-best xFIP of 2.29 and a SIERA of 2.45 that trails only Crochet.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they aren’t particularly well-positioned to make the most out of Flaherty’s time in the organization. While fans in Detroit are surely dreaming on the right-hander pairing with Tarik Skubal at the front of a playoff rotation, the Tigers are sitting at a record of just 37-45 headed into the second half. The AL Central division already appears more or less out of reach for the club as they’ve fallen 15.5 games behind the Guardians, and even an AL Wild Card berth would take a herculean climb up the standings as the club currently sits 7.5 games behind the Royals for the third Wild Card spot.

Between that reality and the fact that Flaherty would surely be the most attractive rental pitcher moved at the deadline if the Tigers were to deal him, it may seem like a forgone conclusion that the right-hander will be changing teams next month. That might not be the case, however, as Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported earlier this week that president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are preparing not just for a potential sell-off, but also for a hypothetical scenario where the Tigers look to add at the deadline.

While the club’s weak position in the standings makes that possibility appear extremely unlikely at first blush, McCosky notes that the club figures to have plenty of control over its own destiny between now and the trade deadline on July 30. Prior to that date, Detroit will square off against the Guardians ten times and the Twins six times. That could give Detroit plenty of opportunities to not only cut into their massive deficit in the AL Central, but also make up ground in the AL Wild Card race; Minnesota holds the second of three spots and currently sits eight games ahead of the Tigers in the standings.

Even as the Tigers have an interesting opportunity to play their way into contention over the final month before the deadline, however, it still appears more likely than not that Flaherty is pitching in another uniform when the calendar flips to August. If that comes to pass, the Tigers will need another arm to step into the rotation alongside Skubal, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Kenta Maeda. According to McCosky, that next man up was once thought to be right-hander Matt Manning, but the club’s first-round pick from the 2016 draft has struggled to a 6.00 ERA at the Triple-A level since last being optioned to the minors and has pitched to below-average numbers across five spot starts in the big leagues this year.

That, per McCosky, could lead the club to consider right-hander Beau Brieske for a rotation spot at some point. While the Tigers haven’t formally broached the possibility of swinging between the bullpen and the rotation with Brieske, the right-hander would reportedly be the top option for the role should the club decide to utilize a pitcher in that role. Looking at the righty’s work during his time with the club, it’s easy to see why that would be the case.

Brieske, 26, was a 27th-round pick by the Tigers in the 2019 draft but made it to the big leagues fairly quickly, starting 15 games in the majors during the 2022 season to roughly league average results. He’s been used almost exclusively out of the bullpen since then and has taken to the role particularly well this year as he’s posted a 2.35 ERA (180 ERA+) and a 2.24 FIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate in 13 multi-inning relief appearances totaling 23 innings of work. Those strong multi-inning performances have seen Brieske throw as many as 53 pitches in relief over three innings of work, making him a prime candidate to move into the rotation from a workload perspective.

In other Tigers news, Hinch told reporters (including McCosky) this evening that veteran shortstop Javier Baez, who has been shelved since early this month due to lumbar spine inflammation, is not only improving but has reached point of feeling “the best he’s felt with his back in some time.” Hinch noted that the Tigers are hoping to get the 31-year-old out on a rehab assignment next week with an eye toward a return prior to the All Star break, which begins on July 15. The veteran has struggled to a .183/.209/.247 slash line in 53 games with the Tigers this year, but despite that meager offensive contribution the Tigers still figure to look forward to his return because even that offense is still an improvement over the bat of Ryan Kreidler, who has replaced Baez in the lineup and is currently slashing just .148/.258/.148 in 13 games with the club while filling in for the veteran.

Báez told the Detroit beat that he was headed to Florida for additional testing (link via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). The Tigers haven’t provided a timeline for his return, though he’s expected to be out beyond the minimal stint. Báez has battled back discomfort dating to Spring Training, which could be a contributing factor to the worst performance of his career.

The two-time All-Star has only hit one home run over 196 plate appearances. He’s hitting .183/.209/.247 across 53 games. Among hitters with 150+ trips to the plate, only Mickey Moniak has a lower on-base percentage. Tim Anderson and Moniak are the only such hitters who have made less of a power impact. Báez has rated as a slightly below-average defender over 451 2/3 innings at shortstop. The overall production is well below replacement level.

Báez now carries a .223/.264/.344 slash line in 333 games since signing a six-year, $140MM free agent contract with Detroit. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris downplayed the chances of moving on from Báez entirely in an appearance on MLB Network late last month. That won’t need to be a consideration while he’s on the injured list, but the Tigers clearly need much better production out of the position. Detroit is last in all three triple slash stats from their shortstops on the year.

For now, that task will fall on Kreidler and Zach McKinstry. Manager A.J. Hinch indicated that duo will split the shortstop reps while Báez is on the shelf. The lefty-hitting McKinstry and righty-swinging Kreidler will form something of a platoon, although Hinch indicated Kreidler won’t be completely shielded from right-handed pitching. With the Nats starting lefty Mitchell Parker this evening, Kreidler is in the lineup for his first MLB work of the season.

The UCLA product appeared in 37 big league contests between 2022-23. Kreidler didn’t hit much in that limited look, turning in a .165/.220/.209 slash over 102 plate appearances. He owns a .242/.362/.448 mark with a lofty 27.1% strikeout rate in parts of four seasons with Toledo. McKinstry has hit .225/.296/.341 in 624 MLB plate appearances since the Tigers acquired him from the Cubs just before the start of last season. He’s a career .219/.284/.365 hitter versus right-handed pitching.

While the Tigers are patching things together on the infield, they seem to have dodged a bullet in the rotation. Jack Flaherty exited last week’s start against the Rangers after experiencing back tightness. He hasn’t pitched since then but seems on track to avoid the injured list. As noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press, Flaherty received an injection yesterday and is lined up to take the ball during this weekend’s series against the Astros. Signed to a one-year pillow contract over the winter, Flaherty is pitching at an All-Star level. He owns a 3.22 ERA while striking out more than a third of his opponents over his first 12 starts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• MLBTR’s 2024-25 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:30)
• Gerrit Cole didn’t crack the rankings due to his specific opt-out situation with the Yankees (6:30)
• The upcoming free agencies of Alex Bregman of the Astros and Pete Alonso of the Mets (9:20)
• Is there any scenario where Juan Soto of the Yankees is not the top free agent? (15:15)
• Ippei Mizuhara, former interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, charged with bank fraud (19:40)
• Athletics to play in Sacramento before moving to Las Vegas (32:40)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
• Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
• Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)

Check out our past episodes!

• Reviewing Our Free Agent Predictions And Future CBA Issues – listen here
• Baseball Is Back, Will Smith’s Extension, Mike Clevinger And Jon Berti – listen here
• A Live Reaction To The Jordan Montgomery Signing, Shohei Ohtani’s Interpreter, And J.D. Martinez Joins The Mets – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Of course, that body of work from the rotation ignores the injury woes of promising young arms like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who could combine with fellow youngsters Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips can fill out a rotation that, at least on paper, looks better than this year’s bottom-three production would imply. While it’s certainly feasible that steps forward from young arms and health from Greene and Lodolo could provide Cincinnati with a serviceable rotation in 2024, Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed comments from president of baseball operations Nick Krall today that indicate the Reds will look to add to their rotation this winter, taking advantage of an unusually deep free agent class for pitching.

Per Goldsmith, Krall told reporters that the Reds will look to add “some sort of blend of quality and quantity” to their pitching staff this winter, while noting that the club’s young arms can already provide the club with upside. Krall’s comments particularly seemed to indicate that the club is interested in pitchers who can both pitch out of the rotation and the bullpen as needed. That sort of swing arm is certainly in supply this offseason, with former Reds Michael Lorenzen and Alex Wood joined by the likes of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Jakob Junis among the arms who fit that description. Signing a swing arm could make plenty of sense for a Reds club that has several interesting young arms who figure to get looks in the rotation next year but is nonetheless clearly in need of a veteran presence who can provide reliable innings in the event of injury or under performance from the club’s youngsters.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

• The Cubs’ coaching staff has largely been in flux since the club brought in Craig Counsell to take over for David Ross as manager, but Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports that at least two of Ross’s coaches will be retaining their positions under Counsell: hitting coach Dustin Kelly and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy. Kelly is the latest in a long line of Cubs hitting coaches in recent years; he became the eighth person to hold the role over the past twelve seasons upon taking the role for the 2023 campaign. Hottovy, meanwhile, is a much longer-tenured part of the Cubs organization. He first joined the organization back in 2014 before being elevated to the role of pitching coach in 2018. Counsell will be the third manager Hottovy serves under, joining both Ross and Joe Maddon.
• Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career in 2023, having slashed a brutal .222/.267/.325 in 547 trips to the plate this year. That was the second-worst offensive performance from a qualified regular in baseball last year by measure of wRC+; Baez’s 61 figure, which was 39% worse than league average, clocked in just barely ahead of former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s 60 wRC+. Brutal as the 2023 season was for Baez, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays that Baez is planning to spend much of his offseason stateside this winter rather than return to his home in Puerto Rico, as he typically does after the season comes to an end. During his time stateside, Petzold indicates that Baez plans to focus on strengthening his back and core muscles to recapture the athleticism that allowed him to connect for 86 home runs from 2017-2019, the fourth highest figure among qualified shortstops during that time span. If Baez, 31 next month, can successfully combat father time and recapture the power that carried his offensive profile in his youth, that would provide a massive boost to a Tigers team that finished bottom four in the majors with a team-wide wRC+ of just 89 in 2023.

There was no suspense with the decision. Baez has struggled mightily since landing in Detroit. He owns a .230/.273/.361 line through the first two seasons of a six-year, $140MM free agent pact. That includes a .222/.267/.325 slash through 547 trips to the dish in 2023.

Baez is due $25MM annually over the next two seasons, followed by $24MM yearly salaries in 2026 and ’27. That contract would make it very difficult for the Tigers to trade him unless they pay the money down almost in entirety. Detroit could look to supplant Baez as the starting shortstop this offseason, although the weak free agent class at the position makes that more challenging than would be the case in a typical winter.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his contract, but he is likely to exercise his opt-out clause after the World Series. The lefty won’t turn 31 until next April, and he’s coming off a strong season in which he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts. While he spent June on the injured list and wasn’t quite as imposing upon his return (4.24 ERA in 15 starts), he still looked like a solid mid-rotation pitcher throughout the second half of the season. That being the case, he should be able to command significantly more than $49MM this winter.

Speaking on Rodriguez, Harris said he isn’t planning to negotiate an extension with the veteran starter. The team will wait and see if he chooses to exercise his opt-out.

On the one hand, if the Tigers want Rodriguez back in the rotation next season, now would be the perfect time to discuss a new deal. The club has exclusive negotiating rights until he elects free agency, giving them a head start on other potential suitors. As a dependable left-handed starter, Rodriguez will certainly draw plenty of interest – especially because he is ineligible to receive the qualifying offer, having already received one in 2021. On the other hand, perhaps the team is hoping Rodriguez will decide not to exercise his opt-out after all. He chose to stay in Detroit at the trade deadline instead of accepting a trade to the Dodgers, citing a desire to stay closer to his family. It’s more than possible he’s content to stay in a location he likes and avoid the hassle of free agency altogether.

Harris also mentioned Báez, who has the chance to opt out of his contract after the season. The Tigers president isn’t planning to negotiate with the shortstop either, although that comes as less of a surprise. The two-time All-Star has four years and $98MM remaining on his deal, and coming off a season with an OPS below .600, he’s not going to beat that number on the open market. Thus, the chances of him opting out are slim to none.

While Harris is choosing to let Rodriguez and Báez make their decisions before deciding his next move, he will have to make a call about Kelly. The Tigers signed the backstop in August after he was released by the Diamondbacks. Over the final few weeks of the season, he caught 16 games for Detroit, allowing only a single passed ball and throwing out six of 12 would-be base stealers. He slashed .173/.271/.269. The 29-year-old has a $3.5MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Given Kelly’s unimpressive offensive numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Tigers cut ties with him following the season. After all, they only paid him a prorated portion of the league minimum in 2023, while the D-backs were on the hook for the rest of his $4.275MM guaranteed salary. Then again, Detroit wouldn’t have put the option in his contract if they weren’t going to consider it. Indeed, Harris suggested the team is seriously thinking about keeping Kelly in the fold. “That’s very much an open question for us,” he explained. “We’re going to spend a lot of time on it.”

The Tigers have a capable starting catcher in Jake Rogers, so Kelly would continue to serve as a backup if he returned in 2024. While he isn’t a threat with the bat, he’s a solid defensive catcher with several years of experience in the big leagues. He also comes with a bit more potential than most backup catchers, considering he was once a top-100 prospect.

Two more players Harris discussed were Meadows and Turnbull, both of whom missed the majority of the 2023 campaign. Meadows has been out since early April battling anxiety, while Turnbull hit the IL in May with a neck injury and never made it back to the big league club. The club could non-tender either player this offseason. However, Harris told reporters that he expects Turnbull to compete for a role in the starting rotation next year, which certainly suggests that he is planning to tender the righty a contract. When Turnbull was last fully healthy, he looked like a great starting pitcher, making nine starts and posting a 2.88 ERA in 2021. Harris hopes he can rediscover some of that success in 2024.

Regarding Meadows, the situation is a little more complicated. Without further comment from Meadows or his representatives, there’s no way to know when he could return to the field. Harris says he hasn’t spoken to Meadows in a few months, so he will need to have a conversation with the outfielder before making any further decisions. The executive called such a conversation a “priority.” If the former top prospect remains uncertain about his status for next season, it’s more than possible he could be non-tendered, although as Woodberry notes on Twitter, the team could leave the door open for him to return someday on a minor league deal.

As for potential spending in free agency, Harris didn’t promise any big moves, but he didn’t rule out making some acquisitions. Most importantly, he emphasized that the Tigers aren’t going to buy a core, and any transactions he makes in free agency or on the trade market will be to complement the young players already on the roster. In other words, he isn’t going to try to accelerate his team’s rebuild with a huge signing or a blockbuster trade. Therefore, if the Tigers are to contend in the AL Central next season, it will be thanks to young players like Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and Tarik Skubal taking a step forward. Most likely, this means the team’s competitive window won’t open until at least 2025.

In non-player news, Harris spoke about various infrastructure improvements in the works, including new dorms and a covered field, batting cages, and pitching mounds at Lakeland, the spring training locale for the Tigers and the regular season home of team’s Single-A and Rookie Ball affiliates. The team is also building a new training complex in the Dominican Republic and renovating the clubhouse at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, Hinch reflected on the work his coaching staff did this season, praising their performance. However, he would not say if everyone would return in 2024. This doesn’t mean the Tigers are planning to replace any coaches, but it suggests they’re evaluating the staff and considering various possibilities.

MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park adds more specific details on the timelines of each player: Correa is expected to return in time for the playoffs, and could possibly be activated before the end of the regular season. Lewis is currently able to hit but isn’t running yet, which figures to be a significant hurdle even if the 24-year-old youngster returns exclusively as a DH in the postseason. Buxton, meanwhile, is the most up in the air of the three, though it’s worth noting that the defensive phenom hasn’t been ruled out for a return to the outfield with the Twins this postseason.

Overall this year, Buxton has slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games with the Twins while being exclusively relegated to DH. That’s significantly hampered his value, as Buxton is one of the best defenders in the sport when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Meanwhile, Correa’s bat has taken a major step back this year as well with a slash line of just .230/.312/.399 in 580 trips to the plate this year, though as the club’s everyday shortstop his return should nonetheless help stabilize the club’s infield situation. Overall, Lewis appears likely to impact the Twins the most of the trio this postseason in terms of offense, as he’s posted incredible numbers when healthy enough to take the field. In 239 trips to the plate this year, Lewis has slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 while playing third base for the Twins.

More from the AL Central…

• Despite Tigers shortstop Javier Baez being in the midst of what’s become the worst full season of his career, the 30-year-old veteran apparently hasn’t ruled out the possibility of opting out of the final four years and $98MM left on his contract with Detroit after the season comes to a close. In conversation with reporters, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, Baez said “I don’t know what’s going to happen, to be honest with you,” noting that after the season the sides would “sit down… and see what’s going to happen in the offseason.” Given that Baez has been a bottom-four qualified shortstop this year in terms of fWAR ahead of only Enrique Hernandez, Tim Anderson, and Amed Rosario, it would be something of a shock to see the veteran decide to test the open market. That said, he would join a dismal free agent shortstop class this offseason and still sports an elite glove at shortstop, as evidenced by his +8 Outs Above Average, which ranks in the 96th percentile per Baseball Savant.
• Guardians infielder Gabriel Arias is done for the season. As noted by MLB.com, Arias was hit by a pitch over the weekend but returned to the lineup yesterday, only to feel pain after swinging the bat. Upon receiving an MRI, Arias was revealed to have sustained a non-displaced right wrist fracture. It’s a disappointing end to the season for Arias, who required surgery on that same wrist last offseason. The 23-year-old youngster has struggled at the plate in limited playing time over the past two seasons, with a combined .207/.282/.348 slash line in 402 trips to the plate since making is debut in 2022. Looking ahead to 2024, Arias figures to compete with fellow youngster Brayan Rocchio for the shortstop job in Cleveland next year, barring an external addition.

McCosky adds that the relationship between Turnbull and the organization has deteriorated significantly throughout the 2023 season. Turnbull posted a brutal 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 31 innings of work across seven starts earlier in the season before the Tigers attempted to option him to Triple-A. Upon being optioned, Turnbull disclosed some neck discomfort to the Tigers and visits with doctors led to the club placing Turnbull on the injured list in early May. Turnbull posted a 7.71 ERA in four rehab starts with Toledo before being activated from the IL toward the end of August and was immediately optioned to Triple-A. Yesterday would have marked Turnbull’s first appearance since being activated and optioned.

There are plenty of contractual nuances to the situation. Turnbull is currently just six days short of reaching five years of MLB service time, at which point the club would no longer be able to option him to Triple-A without his consent. If he remains in the minors through the end of the 2023 season, his free agency would then be delayed until after the 2025 campaign. Of course, it’s possible that between Turnbull’s difficult 2023 campaign and the decaying relationship between club and player, the Tigers could opt not to tender him a contract for the 2024 campaign.

McCosky indicates that Turnbull is “most likely” seeking independent medical counsel, though he also suggests that the Tigers may not accept that counsel. If tensions continue to rise, the Tigers could place Turnbull on the restricted list. Turnbull, who would not accrue MLB service time or be paid during a stint on the restricted list, could then file a grievance against the Tigers in response.

More from Detroit…

• The Tigers placed outfielder Riley Greene on the 10-day IL this afternoon with elbow inflammation. As noted by Jason Beck of MLB.com, Greene is dealing with swelling and soreness in his elbow following a diving catch during last night’s game against the White Sox. Greene will undergo an MRI in 7-10 days to determine the severity of the issue, though with the season’s final month upon us and the Tigers all but guaranteed to miss the postseason, it’s fair to wonder if the injury brings an end to Greene’s 2023 campaign. Greene’s played well in his sophomore season as a major leaguer, combining strong outfield defense with a .288/.349/.447 slash line (119 wRC+) in 416 trips to the plate this year.
• McCosky also relayed recent comments from manager AJ Hinch regarding shortstop Javier Baez’s playing time going forward. Hinch admitted to reporters that playing time would be “at a premium” going forward with the expanded rosters, and that as a result Baez will “play a little more sporadically than we’re used to” going forward. Baez landed with Detroit prior to the 2022 season on a six-year, $140MM contract that has the look of an albatross nearly two years in. In 262 games since joining the Tigers, Baez has slashed just .229/.271/.360 with a wRC+ of 74. While he’s largely posted strong defensive marks during his time in Detroit, Baez’s days as an offensive contributor and above-average regular with Chicago (113 wRC+ from 2018 to 2021) seem to be behind him, and a reduction in playing time could make sense for the 30-year-old veteran as the Tigers continue to look toward the future.